Reg’s harsh judgement of the Thai people (30, 32) is right. In better countries, education systems have shaped obedience to wisely selected rules rather than to personal authority, and constitutionalism has triumphed over absolutism. People in democracies judge their leaders’ behaviour according to the moral rules they have been taught, and get rid of the worst of them in elections. In Thailand, the monarchists’ use of the education system to inculcate obedience to them in their struggle against constitutionalism is the key to the moral stagnation of both the leadership and the people. Even though the King sets atypically high personal moral standards in many respects, his refusal to submit to laws also sets a standard, one that his people follow enthusiastically. Absolutism produces a moral vacuum, and that is the legacy of its revival in Thailand.
David Brown #1 :
You may have a strong point, when you “admit seeing Prayuth as a Verwoed and the Thai amart giving up their wealth and power seems a long stretch……
It was Verwoed who designed and entrenched the long apartheid whites-only, amaart-style rule in South Africa.
F.W. de Klerk – not Verwoed – negotiated the end of this.
[…] News on Chiranuch Prachatai has two stories (here and here) on a new development in the various cases of lese majeste and computer crimes faced by Chiranuch Premchaiporn. Another version of these stories is at New Mandala. […]
anyone in Thailand can accuse and it seems the accused can then be either thrown in gaol without bail for extended periods, months, years or as in this case forced to travel long distances to report on a regular basis at their own expense again kept in suspense for months, years
and the terrible possibility is that after all this the accused might be committed to prison for up to 15 years for possibly made up or imagined offence
why, because someone thinks they might be able to fabricate a case based on some criticism or even discussion of the monarchy and the system in Thailand
Glad there is some latitude and scope for academics and the intelligentsia in general even if required to toe the government line. Imagine the potential if allowed to be fully realised in an open society where access to mankind’s growing sum of knowledge via the Internet etc. plus interaction with others across the planet is free and easy.
If we are relatively untouched by the wider world’s economic and financial storms, and instead our ruling Prussians just get richer than ever, its cultural and political winds can still be felt by the public. And of course they certainly know exactly where to put Sr-Gen. Than Shwe on the evolutionary scale since Amphipithicus.
Regardless of who wins the election, this country will remain a mafia-led kleptocracy. Transformation just isn’t practical when the vast majority of the population are incapable of following the simplest rule – even for their own sake.
The various shirts and their successionist backers are a lost cause. The only people capable of changing this society are its workaday scofflaws. Some hope! Throw them a semi-cheap mobile phone and a set of hire-purchase wheels and they are off with the pixies. Hardly the right stuff for a meaningful revolution, but most certainly the right stuff for a completely pointless bloodbath. What a pisspoor legacy for the last “democratically-elected” PM?
Under what circumstances would such an hypothetical ban on anti-UDD, anti-Thaksin commentary ever get traction at New Mandala?
For almost five years we have entertained a full spectrum of opinion and analysis, criticism and endorsement. Indeed our most prolific commentators all, in one way or another, probably disagree (or perceive themselves to disagree) with the notional New Mandala “line”.
The beauty of the blogging medium is that debates are re-shaped, strong views soften, opinions change, radical positions are introduced and accepted, old ideas are discarded, etc, etc, etc. We all contribute to this process. And I think that process continues to challenge us quite profoundly; while also hinting that we are involved in (often) valuable debates and discussions.
The first point to make is that both Jim Taylor and Nick Nostitz are making immensely important contributions to the debate and we can all learn from them.
However, I would caution against over reliance on “negotiations”. I refer back to point 3 of my post 16. Is the UDD negotiating from a position of strength or weakness? Can the outcome of the negotiations be guaranteed, if so by whom?
Further reading on the pitfalls of negotiations can be found in part two of Gene Sharp’s free download: “From Dictatorship to Democracy”.
sam deedes-16, ‘only when nature taken its course’ is an event that will shook the very foundation of the massive propaganda campaign in the country. Without a focus, continuing it will be pointless. And article 112 will certainly looks very, very, very vulnerable.
Without 112, I doubt the elite can maintain their grip for long.
There seems to be a feeling that if the election goes the wrong for the Puea Thai/UDD then it’s all over for the red shirt campaign. I doubt very much this would be true.
Opposition from outside parliament will still be there whether from red shirts protesting an Abhisit government or from yellow shirts protesting a pro-Thaksin government. What I suspect could destroy the red shirt movement would be that after an Abhisit win Thaksin cut a deal with the new government, and cut his losses at the same time. This would leave the present UDD leadership with nowhere to go.
With the above scenario would it be possible to build a new movement out of the UDD wreckage with a core of people radicalized through the red shirts? I don’t know, but I suspect there are some already planning on just such an outcome.
A rather strange article by Pavin Chachavalpongpun. Possibly the meaning was lost in the editing of the article, but the last paragraph seems to have very little to do with the rest of the article. If it was meant to be a conclusion based on the previous text, it hasn’t worked very well.
Apart from that, much of the rest is hard to argue with. Certainly the populist policies of Thaksin have spread across the political spectrum, which probably overall is not a bad thing. That the amount of money the political parties are willing to spend could cause problems is possible, although this has to be offset against the new laws that came in with the last constitution with their punishments of parties involved in corrupt practices.
And yes it’s unlikely that the Democrats will get a majority because of the solid vote against them in the North and Northeast. That leaves two options in Puea Thai winning a majority or as is more likely, Bhun Jai holding the power to decide which party forms a coalition.
Khun Srithanonchai I didn’t know Jim Taylor was/is a quasi foreign Leninist! Even my 12 year old daughter has a more nuanced understanding of such matters: not I believe because of her Thai education but perhaps in spite of it OR perhaps because she has lived for a while in a quasi-Leninist state (Socialist Republic of Vietnam). Suggesting that this post would be better off on other sites – which it may well be – smacks of Khun Nai in Bangkok suggesting to the people of Isarn what is good for them, and of course we all know the view from Bangkok is far more complex and sophisticated than it is from Isarn or perhaps Klong Toey.
If the Thai elite who have such a strong influence throughout Thailand’s governing and security bodies do not change their ‘mindset’ of assuming control over the majority due to their wealth and status, what hope does the country have in addressing its major problems. They as the leaders are the major problem.!!
‘Political grievances, double standards, the unequal share of political power and the uneven distribution of national wealth are perpetuated by this minority elite, their families and cronies.
Due to their deliberately condensed wealth and high status they have assumed the role of some sort of ‘pseudo royalty’. They are unaccountable and untouchable with their uncanny ability through ‘connections’ to influence not only the security forces but government policy and that of the judiciary purely for their benefit.
The country needs an open debate on this ‘bastardized patron system’ which no longer protects the weak as it was meant to in the past. It has now become a cultural tool of the elite classes to continue in their clique like behavior.
Thailand’s present crisis can be seen metaphorically as a sick tree.
If the whole tree is rotten and diseased it needs to be removed roots and all. In Thailand’s case this will be virtually impossible as the rotten tree over the decades has had thousands of saplings stretching across the kingdom.
Only a real ‘social revolution’ will bring change to a struggling democracy that is controlled by a small minority who care little for their country’s dignity and the fates of their fellow Thais who through no fault of there own, beside their class are denied their rights as equal citizens and a share of the nation’s wealth.
Its disappointing for the children of Thailand to see their elders act and promote immoral and unethical practices purely for the adoration of money and greed and the influence and power than in Thailand can be bought so easily with it.
Right! an election will not solve Thailand problems but what can the Thai do? After the election they will be back to square one again if the Prua Thai Party win the election. The Prua Thai Party will be dissolved again. The double standard that is controlled by the powerful invincible hand will start working again.
The next election will be one of the dirtiest and ugliest election in the history of this country. The Democrat and their backers will do anything to win the next election. If the Prua Thai Party does not win the next election by a really large margin, they have no chance. A large margin means 80-20. All kind of dirty tricks will be used to make the Democrat win the next election. Don’t forget that the Democrat is back by the royal Thai army, judges, civil servants and those autocrats and most importantly the election commissioners.
a correction/I been informed by someone on the inside that in regard to the upcoming Concert at KhaoYai, it was apparently UDD’s initial intention to give a FREE concert to the Reds (who have been giving support) & in order to celebrate and welcome the leaders recently released on bail…
I think Thaksin and the UDD leadership want democracy in Thailand, if you need to dig deeper then you find all the individuals have many shades of reasons.
Thaksin I suspect wants democracy because he believes its the modern way to organise a progressive and productive society and he and his family can thrive in that environment. He grew up intermingled in Chiang Mai society and has feelings for the people of Thailand
UDD leaders range in idealism, pragmatics and ambition but by and large are dedicated to the cause of changing Thai society, they are very with the people, few keep themselves aloof and most seem driven to avoid killing and injury.
Many of us are frustrated because it seems the Thai amart/military are so strongly entrenched that real bloody revolution is the only way to change them.
However I have respect for the feelings and, hopefully, conscious strategy of the many varied UDD leaders to pressure and educate the amart/military and achieve a revolution from within.
Verwoed, Gorbachov seemed to see a light and bring their people forward so maybe can happen in Thailand.
(I admit seeing Prayuth as a Verwoed and the Thai amart giving up their wealth and power seems a long stretch……)
I was in Laos a few weeks after they have unvailed the statue. It is quite large and I did pretty much heard the same story that you have mentioned about how Ya-mo peed her pant that cause the flood in Thailand. I doubt it’s true but the people of Laos are spritual people and they believe in karma. I was born in Laos but was never rasied there, so I don’t know much about the history beside what I was told by my parents. But the history about Lao and Thai known by the western world is mainly written by Thai history book. As they say history is written by the winner.
Thanks Martin and Robert for both giving a bit more “borders”
background – especially this, from Robert :
“Khamtai is of course as his nom de guerre suggests, Siphandone from near the Cambodian border, Asang is from the northern Akha areas now under Chinese influence”.
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A watching game
Reg’s harsh judgement of the Thai people (30, 32) is right. In better countries, education systems have shaped obedience to wisely selected rules rather than to personal authority, and constitutionalism has triumphed over absolutism. People in democracies judge their leaders’ behaviour according to the moral rules they have been taught, and get rid of the worst of them in elections. In Thailand, the monarchists’ use of the education system to inculcate obedience to them in their struggle against constitutionalism is the key to the moral stagnation of both the leadership and the people. Even though the King sets atypically high personal moral standards in many respects, his refusal to submit to laws also sets a standard, one that his people follow enthusiastically. Absolutism produces a moral vacuum, and that is the legacy of its revival in Thailand.
A watching game
“Sondhi Lim said it too and in the same terms.”
No, he said it in (phoney) royalist weasel terms.
Is an election the answer for Thailand?
David Brown #1 :
You may have a strong point, when you “admit seeing Prayuth as a Verwoed and the Thai amart giving up their wealth and power seems a long stretch……
It was Verwoed who designed and entrenched the long apartheid whites-only, amaart-style rule in South Africa.
F.W. de Klerk – not Verwoed – negotiated the end of this.
News: Chiranuch back in court (updated)
[…] News on Chiranuch Prachatai has two stories (here and here) on a new development in the various cases of lese majeste and computer crimes faced by Chiranuch Premchaiporn. Another version of these stories is at New Mandala. […]
A watching game
Reg says: “Regardless of who wins the election, this country will remain a mafia-led kleptocracy.” Sondhi Lim said it too and in the same terms.
News: Chiranuch back in court (updated)
what a farce
anyone in Thailand can accuse and it seems the accused can then be either thrown in gaol without bail for extended periods, months, years or as in this case forced to travel long distances to report on a regular basis at their own expense again kept in suspense for months, years
and the terrible possibility is that after all this the accused might be committed to prison for up to 15 years for possibly made up or imagined offence
why, because someone thinks they might be able to fabricate a case based on some criticism or even discussion of the monarchy and the system in Thailand
From amphipithecus to Snr-Gen. Than Shwe
Glad there is some latitude and scope for academics and the intelligentsia in general even if required to toe the government line. Imagine the potential if allowed to be fully realised in an open society where access to mankind’s growing sum of knowledge via the Internet etc. plus interaction with others across the planet is free and easy.
If we are relatively untouched by the wider world’s economic and financial storms, and instead our ruling Prussians just get richer than ever, its cultural and political winds can still be felt by the public. And of course they certainly know exactly where to put Sr-Gen. Than Shwe on the evolutionary scale since Amphipithicus.
A watching game
Regardless of who wins the election, this country will remain a mafia-led kleptocracy. Transformation just isn’t practical when the vast majority of the population are incapable of following the simplest rule – even for their own sake.
The various shirts and their successionist backers are a lost cause. The only people capable of changing this society are its workaday scofflaws. Some hope! Throw them a semi-cheap mobile phone and a set of hire-purchase wheels and they are off with the pixies. Hardly the right stuff for a meaningful revolution, but most certainly the right stuff for a completely pointless bloodbath. What a pisspoor legacy for the last “democratically-elected” PM?
A watching game
Thanks Les, and everyone,
Under what circumstances would such an hypothetical ban on anti-UDD, anti-Thaksin commentary ever get traction at New Mandala?
For almost five years we have entertained a full spectrum of opinion and analysis, criticism and endorsement. Indeed our most prolific commentators all, in one way or another, probably disagree (or perceive themselves to disagree) with the notional New Mandala “line”.
The beauty of the blogging medium is that debates are re-shaped, strong views soften, opinions change, radical positions are introduced and accepted, old ideas are discarded, etc, etc, etc. We all contribute to this process. And I think that process continues to challenge us quite profoundly; while also hinting that we are involved in (often) valuable debates and discussions.
Best wishes to all,
Nich
A watching game
The first point to make is that both Jim Taylor and Nick Nostitz are making immensely important contributions to the debate and we can all learn from them.
However, I would caution against over reliance on “negotiations”. I refer back to point 3 of my post 16. Is the UDD negotiating from a position of strength or weakness? Can the outcome of the negotiations be guaranteed, if so by whom?
Further reading on the pitfalls of negotiations can be found in part two of Gene Sharp’s free download: “From Dictatorship to Democracy”.
It can be found at: http://www.aeinstein.org/organizations98ce.html
A watching game
sam deedes-16, ‘only when nature taken its course’ is an event that will shook the very foundation of the massive propaganda campaign in the country. Without a focus, continuing it will be pointless. And article 112 will certainly looks very, very, very vulnerable.
Without 112, I doubt the elite can maintain their grip for long.
Bright days ahead!
A watching game
There seems to be a feeling that if the election goes the wrong for the Puea Thai/UDD then it’s all over for the red shirt campaign. I doubt very much this would be true.
Opposition from outside parliament will still be there whether from red shirts protesting an Abhisit government or from yellow shirts protesting a pro-Thaksin government. What I suspect could destroy the red shirt movement would be that after an Abhisit win Thaksin cut a deal with the new government, and cut his losses at the same time. This would leave the present UDD leadership with nowhere to go.
With the above scenario would it be possible to build a new movement out of the UDD wreckage with a core of people radicalized through the red shirts? I don’t know, but I suspect there are some already planning on just such an outcome.
Is an election the answer for Thailand?
A rather strange article by Pavin Chachavalpongpun. Possibly the meaning was lost in the editing of the article, but the last paragraph seems to have very little to do with the rest of the article. If it was meant to be a conclusion based on the previous text, it hasn’t worked very well.
Apart from that, much of the rest is hard to argue with. Certainly the populist policies of Thaksin have spread across the political spectrum, which probably overall is not a bad thing. That the amount of money the political parties are willing to spend could cause problems is possible, although this has to be offset against the new laws that came in with the last constitution with their punishments of parties involved in corrupt practices.
And yes it’s unlikely that the Democrats will get a majority because of the solid vote against them in the North and Northeast. That leaves two options in Puea Thai winning a majority or as is more likely, Bhun Jai holding the power to decide which party forms a coalition.
A watching game
Khun Srithanonchai I didn’t know Jim Taylor was/is a quasi foreign Leninist! Even my 12 year old daughter has a more nuanced understanding of such matters: not I believe because of her Thai education but perhaps in spite of it OR perhaps because she has lived for a while in a quasi-Leninist state (Socialist Republic of Vietnam). Suggesting that this post would be better off on other sites – which it may well be – smacks of Khun Nai in Bangkok suggesting to the people of Isarn what is good for them, and of course we all know the view from Bangkok is far more complex and sophisticated than it is from Isarn or perhaps Klong Toey.
Is an election the answer for Thailand?
If the Thai elite who have such a strong influence throughout Thailand’s governing and security bodies do not change their ‘mindset’ of assuming control over the majority due to their wealth and status, what hope does the country have in addressing its major problems. They as the leaders are the major problem.!!
‘Political grievances, double standards, the unequal share of political power and the uneven distribution of national wealth are perpetuated by this minority elite, their families and cronies.
Due to their deliberately condensed wealth and high status they have assumed the role of some sort of ‘pseudo royalty’. They are unaccountable and untouchable with their uncanny ability through ‘connections’ to influence not only the security forces but government policy and that of the judiciary purely for their benefit.
The country needs an open debate on this ‘bastardized patron system’ which no longer protects the weak as it was meant to in the past. It has now become a cultural tool of the elite classes to continue in their clique like behavior.
Thailand’s present crisis can be seen metaphorically as a sick tree.
If the whole tree is rotten and diseased it needs to be removed roots and all. In Thailand’s case this will be virtually impossible as the rotten tree over the decades has had thousands of saplings stretching across the kingdom.
Only a real ‘social revolution’ will bring change to a struggling democracy that is controlled by a small minority who care little for their country’s dignity and the fates of their fellow Thais who through no fault of there own, beside their class are denied their rights as equal citizens and a share of the nation’s wealth.
Its disappointing for the children of Thailand to see their elders act and promote immoral and unethical practices purely for the adoration of money and greed and the influence and power than in Thailand can be bought so easily with it.
Is an election the answer for Thailand?
Right! an election will not solve Thailand problems but what can the Thai do? After the election they will be back to square one again if the Prua Thai Party win the election. The Prua Thai Party will be dissolved again. The double standard that is controlled by the powerful invincible hand will start working again.
The next election will be one of the dirtiest and ugliest election in the history of this country. The Democrat and their backers will do anything to win the next election. If the Prua Thai Party does not win the next election by a really large margin, they have no chance. A large margin means 80-20. All kind of dirty tricks will be used to make the Democrat win the next election. Don’t forget that the Democrat is back by the royal Thai army, judges, civil servants and those autocrats and most importantly the election commissioners.
A watching game
a correction/I been informed by someone on the inside that in regard to the upcoming Concert at KhaoYai, it was apparently UDD’s initial intention to give a FREE concert to the Reds (who have been giving support) & in order to celebrate and welcome the leaders recently released on bail…
Is an election the answer for Thailand?
I think Thaksin and the UDD leadership want democracy in Thailand, if you need to dig deeper then you find all the individuals have many shades of reasons.
Thaksin I suspect wants democracy because he believes its the modern way to organise a progressive and productive society and he and his family can thrive in that environment. He grew up intermingled in Chiang Mai society and has feelings for the people of Thailand
UDD leaders range in idealism, pragmatics and ambition but by and large are dedicated to the cause of changing Thai society, they are very with the people, few keep themselves aloof and most seem driven to avoid killing and injury.
Many of us are frustrated because it seems the Thai amart/military are so strongly entrenched that real bloody revolution is the only way to change them.
However I have respect for the feelings and, hopefully, conscious strategy of the many varied UDD leaders to pressure and educate the amart/military and achieve a revolution from within.
Verwoed, Gorbachov seemed to see a light and bring their people forward so maybe can happen in Thailand.
(I admit seeing Prayuth as a Verwoed and the Thai amart giving up their wealth and power seems a long stretch……)
Size matters
I was in Laos a few weeks after they have unvailed the statue. It is quite large and I did pretty much heard the same story that you have mentioned about how Ya-mo peed her pant that cause the flood in Thailand. I doubt it’s true but the people of Laos are spritual people and they believe in karma. I was born in Laos but was never rasied there, so I don’t know much about the history beside what I was told by my parents. But the history about Lao and Thai known by the western world is mainly written by Thai history book. As they say history is written by the winner.
Bouasone dumped from Lao Politburo
Thanks Martin and Robert for both giving a bit more “borders”
background – especially this, from Robert :
“Khamtai is of course as his nom de guerre suggests, Siphandone from near the Cambodian border, Asang is from the northern Akha areas now under Chinese influence”.