To All,
I am sure that Hla Oo was wrong to say Gen Ne Win was not in charge.
Those who listened to Gen Ne Win last speeches in 1987/88 clearly understood he (Gen ne Win) was indeed in charge of ma-sa-la and brutal regime till Gen Saw Maung’s era. And also Gen Ne Win was behind the seen controlling BG Khin Nyunt at that time and later till after Gen Than Shwe took over from Gen Saw Maung. Then BG Khin Nyunt (later LG Khin Nyunt) was very close to U Ne Win and his family, especially with the daughter Major (Dr) Khin Sandar Win.
Hla Oo was telling stories (not history) without any documentary evidences.
I really admire your work and your incredible insights to this entire debate.
However, i do find tiresome your “I am more authentic than you” line. If you have an issue with Jim’s article, stick to that and leave the ad hominem tinged comments where they belong.
Sometimes those closest to events miss the bigger picture. You should be mindful you don’t fall into that trap.
“I have not however met the core UDD leaders since their release last month.”
Then i suggest you do, and raise with them your points regarding this issue, and listen to their reasons why they take the position they take. This may lead to more balanced articles.
Excuse me, but i am quite troubled by your statement: “…we were protesting…”. I do not know how it is for anthropologists, but in my profession there is a clear line regarding this to avoid conflicts of interest and to avoid being compromised in my work – either i report, or i am a participant.
It seems to me that Bouasone’s departure is indeed more significant than Martin suggests. I highly doubt that he left on his own terms, or that he left to save face. In fact, he has lost face terribly. It is clear that the whole rapid change suggests an intent to not only remove Bouasone, but to cause him to lose face badly at the same time. The last time someone in the politburo was demoted from both the politburo and central committee at the same time, Khamphouy Keoboualapha continued to hold the vice-Prime Minister position for sometime, even though everyone knew he was essentially gone. I expect that Bouasone is in a similar position. Bouasone has been burnt badly.
Why is it so unsurprising that the Saudis could do no wrong in the eyes of the US administration? Didn’t even matter that most of the 9/11 perpetrators were Saudi. It must be some other towelheads, mustn’t it? Now it’s the fuzzy wuzzies who won’t submit or at least be friendly.
Saudi Arabia is thought to possess the largest provable reserves of crude and as a result has received protection and patronage from the United States, despite it being regarded as one of the most repressive regimes..
“Yeaay!”, say the Burmese generals. They’ll be laughing all the way to the bank. It must be the sanctions that keep the people down, mustn’t it? It’s utterly logical.
But no! China is getting too big in its boots. Bring back the footbinding. They look ever so dainty.
I can confirm that Campbell’s report is missing at the ABC website. I cannot find it anywhere, in fact. I did download a copy of the video, thinking that it might be disappeared. I wonder what ABC is thinking. They can hardly expect to re-ingratiate themselves with the Thai ‘elite’ after broadcasting the report. And now they look to everyone like cowards for taking it down.
Thanks Martin. I hesitate to reply as I do not really think it very appropriate to ‘Hmong watch’ and identified Mme Pany as Hmong and a woman, really in order to emphasise that this dynamic personality is now rated above the retiring Asang Lao Ly and the active Somsavat Lensavad, who certainly puts a lot of effort into getting ahead. Pany of course uses her Lao-language first name and Hmong clan name, but this is not relevant. Asang is just 100% Akha. My reference to his position re the USA is not relevant these days, but might have caused some small embarrassments earlier in the decade (when he left control of security). I would hardly say Asang is from a different generation to Khamtai, indeed there is only a small age gap, but a significant difference in geographical-origins. Khamtai is of course as his nom de guerre suggests, Siphandone from near the Cambodian border, Asang is from the northern Akha areas now under Chinese influence — but I think any such influence not significantly relevant to movements noted at this Congress , a sign perhaps of Party maturity. Indeed, I would say the changes noted do not fit into any simple ‘clique-analysis’, but really do seem logical and, given the choice of personalities available, to serve the projected needs of the coming years and the movement towards a technocracy. Time perhaps to temper the ‘Hmong watching’ and the ‘clique analysis’. Today, these are probably no more relevant in Laos than similar factors in the political parties of many other countries.
What Ralph mean is that all sort of people are claiming to be doing whatever they are doing in the name of “progressive and pro-democracy”.
Might be so Tarrin and Ralph, but I only pointed out that one hardly expects the Thai police force, or any police force for that matter, to be supporters of progressive or democratic politics. Police forces by their very nature are forces of repression. When you find they are on your side you should start to get worried.
As for putting Sondhi in the progressive or pro-democratic sector of politics, I suspect Ralph was just putting up a straw man to support his arguments.
Thanks Nick, in fact I met and have spoken directly with Tida, Worawut, Prasaeng & co since last year; regularly met with the core leaders at Klong Prem prison – Weng, Veera (before his release), Korkaew and Nuttawut; undertook ethnographic research over three months among second and third level red shirt leaders in the north and the northeast, and participants at all levels; I met and interviewed Khun “Dear” (Saedaeng’s daughter), and other Saedaeng close associates at his funeral last year – before their unfortunate “disappearance” by the state’s fascist machinery; had a connection with Nuttawut back since december ’07, when we were protesting outside Parliament. I was also with Surachai Sae Dan early this year in Nonthaburi, and in regular skype with other important red shirt leaders who prefer not to be named but are planning in exile. I have not however met the core UDD leaders since their release last month. I certainly do not base comments on web chats, or plagiarise other people’s materials, but based on my direct knowledge [much of which I have to be careful what to release online for security purposes]. It is in any case, ethics aside, far too risky to take stuff direct from the internet.
Good comments from Robert. I am surprised, being the Hmong watcher he is, that particular attention wasn’t brought to the retirement/demotion of Vientiane Party Secretary Sombat Yialiher and the former Luang Phrabang governor Vongphet (forgotten his really long surname). Obviously other Hmong have been brought into the CC, but Sombat’s drop is certainly radical given that he was in the previous Secretariat. As for Asang, he is from a different generation to Khamtai but certainly serving his last term on the Politburo. I don’t see why he should be singled out for anti-American sentiments? Anyone who lived during the bombing years or oversaw public security during the 8os when the US and Thailand sponsored rebel activity (directly or indirectly) against the regime has their logical reasons for distrust. It would certainly be interesting to get a breakdown of the various PhDs held by CC members. How many do not relate to the interpretation of Leninism or Ho Chi Minh Thought?
There’s nothing “radical” about criticizing “a law”. If by criticizing “a law” can lead to bloodshed then this whole political movement should be put to stop. Furthermore, the bloodshed last year happened partly because the red leaders fail to analyze Thailand political structure properly and with that whatever happen during the bloody May 1992 could happen again. Unfortunately it didn’t and what happened next is “consequently” lead to 19 May crackdown.
For me, Nattawut’s rhetoric was another excuse to quiet down the arrest the Nong Pla.
This article may have some merit. Missing here though is one major point – that calls for increased radicalization especially on article 112, and related issues could easily lead to major bloodshed which could quite possibly exceed by far what happened during Ratchaprasong 2010, and that the UDD leadership is fully aware of this, and that they desperately want to avoid this scenario.
Nattawut in his speech has also mentioned that this struggle has to be done smartly, and that their support for the elections is just one leg they stand on, presently, and that, regardless of the outcome – they will continue.
To be aware of consequences of one’s actions is highly important. The possibility to lead people to their deaths is for most of the UDD leaders not an acceptable consequence.
I would suggest to Jim Taylor not to just follow the web forums and online blogs, but also to directly speak with the UDD leaders (who are very approachable) he attacks in his articles – he might experience another form of “Da Sawaang” through this.
For those of you who might just have missed the news from Laos amidst the TV’d routine bombings of former allies, please find attached 3 official news-outings following the 5-yearly Party Congress. The Congress, as tipped to do, produced absolutely no surprises. This is partly because of the ongoing policy of continuity, where deputies are expected take over almost as a matter of course, and movements up in down in terms of official number are the only indicator of individual careers. It is also because much of what was seen on Lao TV was projected, more or less publicly, in advance media indications. The Congress followed established procedure and predictability and the comparative transparency was helped by all the recent good news against a declared growth of 8.6% over 2010. There was little mention of the drought that reduced the 2010 rice harvest to 50% of the expected, but indication that larger rice stocks will be maintained against emergencies. Agricultural changes have yet to be quantified but it is already evident that the sector has diversified following the last 5-year plan, and that the introduction of bio-fuels and rubber may have gone some way to off-set the recent loss in rice yields. No great plans to maximise irrigation of ricelands at this time, but declarations that rice exports/exports will increase 4 times over the coming 5 years. The Congress was aired live much of the time on Lao Star TV. Foreigners in Laos did not notice the Congress was taking place — a few bars closed on scheduled time but there was no dominant police presence.
Those eager for some intrigue will be disappointed. The first 4 in the 11-member Politburo remain President/vice Pres/PM and vice PM. However is it surely a good sign that Madame Pany Yathortou, formerly important in the National Assembly in minority committees and as Speaker, incidentally a Hmong woman, is up from last Congress number 11 in the Politburo to number 5 (she entered only in the last Congress). That places her above the Revolutionary stalwart Asang Lao Ly, formerly Minister of Interior/National Security, and as it happens of Akha minority and firmly and openly opposed to too close a relationship with the US. Asang is now really showing his age and seems content to join Khamthay Siphandone in dignified retirement. There is a certain movement in personalities towards the younger, non-military, and this is a natural development — there simply aren’t many of the old school left functioning. Presuming continuity, it seems now most probable that Thongloun will be the next PM — in 5 years time. Thongloun has some excellent backing among government members known more for their credentials than past revolutionary achievements and himself has been instrumental in the extraordinary economic advance of Laos over the last 10 years. Beyond the Politburo it is noted that 36% of the Central Committee hold real not honorary PhDs. Clearly the Party will continue its emphasis on economic advance and poverty reduction, and international credibility through ASEAN and the WTO (membership expected this year).
No doubt Somsavat Lengsavat feels he should have been ranked higher than number 8. Few people have been as openly political in pursuit of power. His Chinese ethnicity appears not to have helped him overcome old enmities. He remains a Deputy PM and no doubt will continue to be the face of Laos to many foreign-power representatives here; and no doubt he will continue to survive, even if his ambitions are not met. But my money is on Thongloun and Madame Pany, and their comrades in the National Assembly and the Party’s Central Committee, as eventual leaders of the next generation.
Some ministerial changes may take place following the Congress, but current preoccupations are with the popular nation-wide election to the National Assembly on 30 April.
Maybe one way to make it available to Thai people would be to make it so widely available online that here would be no way to censor every sources without closing down Internet altogether.
Internet in my opinion is the only way the thai society will be able to gain some perspective on their own society.
What Ralph mean is that all sort of people are claiming to be doing whatever they are doing in the name of “progressive and pro-democracy”. Sondhi version of “pro-democracy” was 70-30 selected-elected representative, hardly can be called progressive.
One of Jim better piece I have to say. I like the fact that he highlightр╕│р╕Б UDD in a manner that is not simply a lump of monolith but rather a cluster of group of people with different ideas and ideology. On the downside is that Jim almost said that it will can happen by Thaksin, which I’m not quite agree with. The UDD don’t need Thaksin, but the same can’t be said on Thaksin sideр╣Г
Nganadeeleg 41
Do you prefer the executioners axe or a more modern “ciwilai” method such as a firing squad?
Perhaps in this enlightened era you’ll get a choice?
Unless and until the people look after their own interests they will see themselves continuously co-opted in service to the interests of those who do take the time to “look after the peoples’ interests”.
But John, haven’t you been co-opted in service to the interests of those… right here on New Mandala in the past?
In response to your question about borders, I can’t really see any connection. Which borders are you referring to? Regarding the generational change, the shift is from a close knit group of militants, who received their revolutionary baptism of fire on the Bolaven Plateau and the Plain of Jars, to a group of career cadres who were conditioned in the caves of Viengxay and the political schools of northern Vietnam. Old boy networks still count, but there is a more elaborate set of linkages rather than simply military ones.
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Burma in Limbo, part 4
To All,
I am sure that Hla Oo was wrong to say Gen Ne Win was not in charge.
Those who listened to Gen Ne Win last speeches in 1987/88 clearly understood he (Gen ne Win) was indeed in charge of ma-sa-la and brutal regime till Gen Saw Maung’s era. And also Gen Ne Win was behind the seen controlling BG Khin Nyunt at that time and later till after Gen Than Shwe took over from Gen Saw Maung. Then BG Khin Nyunt (later LG Khin Nyunt) was very close to U Ne Win and his family, especially with the daughter Major (Dr) Khin Sandar Win.
Hla Oo was telling stories (not history) without any documentary evidences.
A watching game
@Nick Nostitz
I really admire your work and your incredible insights to this entire debate.
However, i do find tiresome your “I am more authentic than you” line. If you have an issue with Jim’s article, stick to that and leave the ad hominem tinged comments where they belong.
Sometimes those closest to events miss the bigger picture. You should be mindful you don’t fall into that trap.
A watching game
“Jim Taylor”:
You stated:
“I have not however met the core UDD leaders since their release last month.”
Then i suggest you do, and raise with them your points regarding this issue, and listen to their reasons why they take the position they take. This may lead to more balanced articles.
Excuse me, but i am quite troubled by your statement: “…we were protesting…”. I do not know how it is for anthropologists, but in my profession there is a clear line regarding this to avoid conflicts of interest and to avoid being compromised in my work – either i report, or i am a participant.
That is all i can say here.
Bouasone dumped from Lao Politburo
It seems to me that Bouasone’s departure is indeed more significant than Martin suggests. I highly doubt that he left on his own terms, or that he left to save face. In fact, he has lost face terribly. It is clear that the whole rapid change suggests an intent to not only remove Bouasone, but to cause him to lose face badly at the same time. The last time someone in the politburo was demoted from both the politburo and central committee at the same time, Khamphouy Keoboualapha continued to hold the vice-Prime Minister position for sometime, even though everyone knew he was essentially gone. I expect that Bouasone is in a similar position. Bouasone has been burnt badly.
Saudi oil across Burma
Why is it so unsurprising that the Saudis could do no wrong in the eyes of the US administration? Didn’t even matter that most of the 9/11 perpetrators were Saudi. It must be some other towelheads, mustn’t it? Now it’s the fuzzy wuzzies who won’t submit or at least be friendly.
Saudi Arabia is thought to possess the largest provable reserves of crude and as a result has received protection and patronage from the United States, despite it being regarded as one of the most repressive regimes..
“Yeaay!”, say the Burmese generals. They’ll be laughing all the way to the bank. It must be the sanctions that keep the people down, mustn’t it? It’s utterly logical.
But no! China is getting too big in its boots. Bring back the footbinding. They look ever so dainty.
One man, the ABC and lese majeste
I can confirm that Campbell’s report is missing at the ABC website. I cannot find it anywhere, in fact. I did download a copy of the video, thinking that it might be disappeared. I wonder what ABC is thinking. They can hardly expect to re-ingratiate themselves with the Thai ‘elite’ after broadcasting the report. And now they look to everyone like cowards for taking it down.
Bouasone dumped from Lao Politburo
Thanks Martin. I hesitate to reply as I do not really think it very appropriate to ‘Hmong watch’ and identified Mme Pany as Hmong and a woman, really in order to emphasise that this dynamic personality is now rated above the retiring Asang Lao Ly and the active Somsavat Lensavad, who certainly puts a lot of effort into getting ahead. Pany of course uses her Lao-language first name and Hmong clan name, but this is not relevant. Asang is just 100% Akha. My reference to his position re the USA is not relevant these days, but might have caused some small embarrassments earlier in the decade (when he left control of security). I would hardly say Asang is from a different generation to Khamtai, indeed there is only a small age gap, but a significant difference in geographical-origins. Khamtai is of course as his nom de guerre suggests, Siphandone from near the Cambodian border, Asang is from the northern Akha areas now under Chinese influence — but I think any such influence not significantly relevant to movements noted at this Congress , a sign perhaps of Party maturity. Indeed, I would say the changes noted do not fit into any simple ‘clique-analysis’, but really do seem logical and, given the choice of personalities available, to serve the projected needs of the coming years and the movement towards a technocracy. Time perhaps to temper the ‘Hmong watching’ and the ‘clique analysis’. Today, these are probably no more relevant in Laos than similar factors in the political parties of many other countries.
Thitinan on Thailand’s long list
Tarrin – 12
What Ralph mean is that all sort of people are claiming to be doing whatever they are doing in the name of “progressive and pro-democracy”.
Might be so Tarrin and Ralph, but I only pointed out that one hardly expects the Thai police force, or any police force for that matter, to be supporters of progressive or democratic politics. Police forces by their very nature are forces of repression. When you find they are on your side you should start to get worried.
As for putting Sondhi in the progressive or pro-democratic sector of politics, I suspect Ralph was just putting up a straw man to support his arguments.
A watching game
Thanks Nick, in fact I met and have spoken directly with Tida, Worawut, Prasaeng & co since last year; regularly met with the core leaders at Klong Prem prison – Weng, Veera (before his release), Korkaew and Nuttawut; undertook ethnographic research over three months among second and third level red shirt leaders in the north and the northeast, and participants at all levels; I met and interviewed Khun “Dear” (Saedaeng’s daughter), and other Saedaeng close associates at his funeral last year – before their unfortunate “disappearance” by the state’s fascist machinery; had a connection with Nuttawut back since december ’07, when we were protesting outside Parliament. I was also with Surachai Sae Dan early this year in Nonthaburi, and in regular skype with other important red shirt leaders who prefer not to be named but are planning in exile. I have not however met the core UDD leaders since their release last month. I certainly do not base comments on web chats, or plagiarise other people’s materials, but based on my direct knowledge [much of which I have to be careful what to release online for security purposes]. It is in any case, ethics aside, far too risky to take stuff direct from the internet.
Bouasone dumped from Lao Politburo
Good comments from Robert. I am surprised, being the Hmong watcher he is, that particular attention wasn’t brought to the retirement/demotion of Vientiane Party Secretary Sombat Yialiher and the former Luang Phrabang governor Vongphet (forgotten his really long surname). Obviously other Hmong have been brought into the CC, but Sombat’s drop is certainly radical given that he was in the previous Secretariat. As for Asang, he is from a different generation to Khamtai but certainly serving his last term on the Politburo. I don’t see why he should be singled out for anti-American sentiments? Anyone who lived during the bombing years or oversaw public security during the 8os when the US and Thailand sponsored rebel activity (directly or indirectly) against the regime has their logical reasons for distrust. It would certainly be interesting to get a breakdown of the various PhDs held by CC members. How many do not relate to the interpretation of Leninism or Ho Chi Minh Thought?
A watching game
Nick Nostitz – 9
There’s nothing “radical” about criticizing “a law”. If by criticizing “a law” can lead to bloodshed then this whole political movement should be put to stop. Furthermore, the bloodshed last year happened partly because the red leaders fail to analyze Thailand political structure properly and with that whatever happen during the bloody May 1992 could happen again. Unfortunately it didn’t and what happened next is “consequently” lead to 19 May crackdown.
For me, Nattawut’s rhetoric was another excuse to quiet down the arrest the Nong Pla.
A watching game
This article may have some merit. Missing here though is one major point – that calls for increased radicalization especially on article 112, and related issues could easily lead to major bloodshed which could quite possibly exceed by far what happened during Ratchaprasong 2010, and that the UDD leadership is fully aware of this, and that they desperately want to avoid this scenario.
Nattawut in his speech has also mentioned that this struggle has to be done smartly, and that their support for the elections is just one leg they stand on, presently, and that, regardless of the outcome – they will continue.
To be aware of consequences of one’s actions is highly important. The possibility to lead people to their deaths is for most of the UDD leaders not an acceptable consequence.
I would suggest to Jim Taylor not to just follow the web forums and online blogs, but also to directly speak with the UDD leaders (who are very approachable) he attacks in his articles – he might experience another form of “Da Sawaang” through this.
Bouasone dumped from Lao Politburo
For those of you who might just have missed the news from Laos amidst the TV’d routine bombings of former allies, please find attached 3 official news-outings following the 5-yearly Party Congress. The Congress, as tipped to do, produced absolutely no surprises. This is partly because of the ongoing policy of continuity, where deputies are expected take over almost as a matter of course, and movements up in down in terms of official number are the only indicator of individual careers. It is also because much of what was seen on Lao TV was projected, more or less publicly, in advance media indications. The Congress followed established procedure and predictability and the comparative transparency was helped by all the recent good news against a declared growth of 8.6% over 2010. There was little mention of the drought that reduced the 2010 rice harvest to 50% of the expected, but indication that larger rice stocks will be maintained against emergencies. Agricultural changes have yet to be quantified but it is already evident that the sector has diversified following the last 5-year plan, and that the introduction of bio-fuels and rubber may have gone some way to off-set the recent loss in rice yields. No great plans to maximise irrigation of ricelands at this time, but declarations that rice exports/exports will increase 4 times over the coming 5 years. The Congress was aired live much of the time on Lao Star TV. Foreigners in Laos did not notice the Congress was taking place — a few bars closed on scheduled time but there was no dominant police presence.
Those eager for some intrigue will be disappointed. The first 4 in the 11-member Politburo remain President/vice Pres/PM and vice PM. However is it surely a good sign that Madame Pany Yathortou, formerly important in the National Assembly in minority committees and as Speaker, incidentally a Hmong woman, is up from last Congress number 11 in the Politburo to number 5 (she entered only in the last Congress). That places her above the Revolutionary stalwart Asang Lao Ly, formerly Minister of Interior/National Security, and as it happens of Akha minority and firmly and openly opposed to too close a relationship with the US. Asang is now really showing his age and seems content to join Khamthay Siphandone in dignified retirement. There is a certain movement in personalities towards the younger, non-military, and this is a natural development — there simply aren’t many of the old school left functioning. Presuming continuity, it seems now most probable that Thongloun will be the next PM — in 5 years time. Thongloun has some excellent backing among government members known more for their credentials than past revolutionary achievements and himself has been instrumental in the extraordinary economic advance of Laos over the last 10 years. Beyond the Politburo it is noted that 36% of the Central Committee hold real not honorary PhDs. Clearly the Party will continue its emphasis on economic advance and poverty reduction, and international credibility through ASEAN and the WTO (membership expected this year).
No doubt Somsavat Lengsavat feels he should have been ranked higher than number 8. Few people have been as openly political in pursuit of power. His Chinese ethnicity appears not to have helped him overcome old enmities. He remains a Deputy PM and no doubt will continue to be the face of Laos to many foreign-power representatives here; and no doubt he will continue to survive, even if his ambitions are not met. But my money is on Thongloun and Madame Pany, and their comrades in the National Assembly and the Party’s Central Committee, as eventual leaders of the next generation.
Some ministerial changes may take place following the Congress, but current preoccupations are with the popular nation-wide election to the National Assembly on 30 April.
One man, the ABC and lese majeste
Maybe one way to make it available to Thai people would be to make it so widely available online that here would be no way to censor every sources without closing down Internet altogether.
Internet in my opinion is the only way the thai society will be able to gain some perspective on their own society.
Thitinan on Thailand’s long list
Les – 11
What Ralph mean is that all sort of people are claiming to be doing whatever they are doing in the name of “progressive and pro-democracy”. Sondhi version of “pro-democracy” was 70-30 selected-elected representative, hardly can be called progressive.
A watching game
One of Jim better piece I have to say. I like the fact that he highlightр╕│р╕Б UDD in a manner that is not simply a lump of monolith but rather a cluster of group of people with different ideas and ideology. On the downside is that Jim almost said that it will can happen by Thaksin, which I’m not quite agree with. The UDD don’t need Thaksin, but the same can’t be said on Thaksin sideр╣Г
Thitinan on Thailand’s long list
Ralph Kramden – 10
Ralph, afraid you lost me on this comment, which maybe was the point of the comment anyway.
Thanthawut Taweewarodomkul gets 13 years
Nganadeeleg 41
Do you prefer the executioners axe or a more modern “ciwilai” method such as a firing squad?
Perhaps in this enlightened era you’ll get a choice?
A watching game
john francis lee – 5
Unless and until the people look after their own interests they will see themselves continuously co-opted in service to the interests of those who do take the time to “look after the peoples’ interests”.
But John, haven’t you been co-opted in service to the interests of those… right here on New Mandala in the past?
Bouasone dumped from Lao Politburo
In response to your question about borders, I can’t really see any connection. Which borders are you referring to? Regarding the generational change, the shift is from a close knit group of militants, who received their revolutionary baptism of fire on the Bolaven Plateau and the Plain of Jars, to a group of career cadres who were conditioned in the caves of Viengxay and the political schools of northern Vietnam. Old boy networks still count, but there is a more elaborate set of linkages rather than simply military ones.