@ billyd
I don’t know what provinces billyd has been visiting lately, but in Khon Kaen Province at least the Red Shirt rallies and marches have been large, frequent, and vociferous for all of 2011. The Red Shirt rally this past Saturday at Democracy Monument in Bangkok also had over 50,000 people in attendance. My friend reports that the police in evidence were blatantly wearing either red sleeve bands or bandanas, and were especially welcoming to farangs in attendance.
The wealth of the Crown Property Bureau has been estimated by some sources to be quite a bit more that the $30 billion cited above. I have seen estimates by I think either WSJ, The Economist, or Forbes of at least DOUBLE that amount up to $100 billion or more. Can anyone provide a reliable figure and an explanation for how that figure is arrived at?
Yes indeed, there’s a lot of thrashing about going on, the mark of desperate men. Desperate men are dangerous.
Another masonic analogy if you will. The people in power in Thailand should take pause for thought about what will happen when they eventually fail, as they must eventually fail. Perhaps they should live every day as if it were their last, because, most assuredly, one day it will be.
In life or in power, or perhaps both if they aren’t extremely careful in the things they do. But then that is not a trait of Thais…
Akechai Hongkangwarn and Satien Rattanawong new victims of lese majeste
Akechai Hongkangwarn was arrested for distributing CDs of an ABC programme which was broadcast in Australia and for distributing some Wikileaks documents on 11th March. He is now out on bail.
Satien Rattanawong, aged 50, was arrested near the Democracy Monument on 19th March while selling CDs to Red Shirt protesters. He has been charged with lese majeste. The Rajprasong legal team accuse the police of breaking the law in preventing Satien from seeing a lawyer.
Let’s take it a step further – instead of unverified talk of swelling ranks of Red sympathisers throughout Thailand, let us hypothesise that the movement is actually relatively small, marginal and largely rejected by ‘mainstream’ rural/provincial people. Is there any evidence to the contrary? Is talk of ‘taa sawang’ and its cognates – as desirable as it may be – simply overwrought propaganda?
I notice in today’s Bangkok Post an article which describes how Red Shirts in Udon Thani are trying to ‘rebuild the interest and knowledge of people…’ in politics… Hardly Thitinan’s ‘burgeoning new voices’ of the ‘rural masses’… Would the amaart-backed governmnet really be contemplating an election if the Red Shirt movement was as numerically powerful as this article by Thitinan seems to suggest?
“That is unconstitutional in most societies (and in Thailand since 1932)”
Unconstitutional or not, it would still be a vast improvement on the current ‘system’.
(and it’s a relatively simple change that those ‘still in love’ would find difficult to argue against IMO)
btw, what’s a constitution worth in Thailand, other than toilet tissue?
(please don’t blame me – I’m just stating the obvious)
c1 “A somewhat curious article from a usually perceptive analyst of Thai politics.”
Have to agree – Thitinan gains no more credibility from evidence-free sweeping statements than do some protagonists posting on NM. Given the site where this was published and the length of the piece, I can only assume that he set out to provide just the most general overview – ticking just a few of the main boxes.
I tend to respect his other output that seems to benefit from high-level contacts and insights gained from them – but he seems thin on informed views of what’s going on in the red “base” and at a local level generally. Too long at Johns Hopkins?
To Maung Maung,
Thanks for your comments on Hla Oo’s essay and his claim about his father Bo Tun Hla.
Your point about the forward written by Kyaw Nyein for the abook about him written by Thein Pe(Phe) Myint.
There are a lot questions on his essay and what Hla Oo is claiming.
There are no documentary evidences provided by him.
CPB Myo Myint did not clearly mention which “Ko Tun Hla” he was referring. This “Ko Tun Hla” may still be “Captain Tun Hla (a) Tekkathol ne Win. Only CPB Myo Myint can confirm it.
Regards
A somewhat curious article from a usually perceptive analyst of Thai politics. He says that the ‘red shirts have grown in number’ – but fails to offer any data to support this claim. How does he know this? Surely not from the demonstrations at which numbers have been far less than at their peak around this time last year. Particularly in the provinces, numbers at Red Shirt rallies are lucky to run into the hundreds, let alone the thousands. So I’m not sure about the veracity of this ‘phantom’ menace.
Further, apart from questioning just who he has in mind in terms of ‘rural masses’ (who are these undifferentiated automatons?) who apparently have no political voice or access to social mobility apart from Thaksin (does Thitinan know nothing of how local politics works?), why must what he calls ‘pandering populism’ be rejected, when he earlier acknowledges this is precisely what his ‘masses’ want? Isn’t this democracy in action?
Yes, the politics of sucession is a key factor in the present situation, but so also is the reality of provincial/rural politics and society which Thitinan seems to know very little about.
Nganadeeleg 38
“The simple amendment that most Thai’s should have no trouble accepting would be to make it that only the palace can make a LM charge. That would be a significant improvement”
That is unconstitutional in most societies (and in Thailand since 1932)
The highest institution is the capstone of an edifice with weakening foundations. It’s pillars are the military, police judiciary and civil service and a growing coterie of nouveau-riche latecomers.
Some experts believe that due to an inherent design fault removing the capstone would allow the foundations to collapse. Therefore drastic measures are required to keep the capstone in place.
Some people recommend demolition and installing a modern with firmer foundations.
However opposing camps believe this project would be open to corruption and the design might not be suitable or environmentally sensitive.
….and others yet will argue “if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.”
Apologies for the masonic analogies.
I find myself increasingly thinking of the ruritanian Duchy of Grand Fenwick in the 50’s satire “The Mouse That Roared”
The Cat That Purred” might be more appropriate in this instance?
Hla Oo,
Your baselss accusation to General Aung San would not make any difference.
You simply write to please your bosses without corroboration and documentary evidences.
So your essay is worth nothing.
Suddenly the “number” argument start to matter, where were you when TRT won 17 million vote? btw your 63 million population not going to work here since there were about 30 million legible voters.
Furthermore, “continuous displays of violence”? I mean you could be ghadism, I don’t know but looking else where, violence doesn’t seem to problem. There is literally a war in Libya now I dont see people complaining about “Those that go against Gaddafi lost legitimacy because they pick up arms”. Somehow, peaceful protest is only entitle to the red. (I’m not pro-violence btw, I just want to make a point)
The simple amendment that most Thai’s should have no trouble accepting would be to make it that only the palace can make a LM charge. That would be a significant improvement
(and trials should be transparent, not secret).
Tony, obviously you’re listening to the folks here at new mandala. That’s why you bother commenting to Nick’s article after all, are you not?
Chris, isn’t that a ploy? Most of the comments I’ve read from the reds seems to agree with that notion. That the regime has no credit, and isn’t trustworthy. It has been proven through history and lives of countless Thais to be so.
Tony, unless you don’t live in Thailand. I very much doubt you haven’t seen any REDs. Your estimation is very much delusions for a falling regime. Hoping that the reds dwindled.
Sadly, the opposite is true. I moved to a new neighborhood in the past year, and yet I still see more REDs than ever. It’s the yellows that are run hiding. Did you see their number on the telly?
Propaganda? We’ve been seeing it for the past 30+ yrs. On free TV, every effin’ day. In fact, I’d bet it’d be a guinness book world record, if anyone were to dare to report it in!
Ralph Kramden, the new case tells us that the ABC program & Wikileaks documents are lese majeste material. And the bail is half a mil? I still can’t believe the idiocy of this regime.
Dear Maung Maung,
Thanks for interaction and giving information.
To Hla Oo,
I also would like to know when were you studying at RIT if you are the student there in 1970’s because you mention it some where in one part of your essay.
To Hla Oo,
If you carefully read Bo Kyaw Zaw book, you should mention what Bo Kyaw Zaw said that the real killer of Gen Aung San was British Government.
I strongly believe that British government was master mind and responsible for the murder of Burmese Leaders on 19th July 1947.
It was not just killing of the Gen Aung San and his cabinet colleagues it was killing of the entire Union of Burma.
Hla Oo, you must get it right.
Regards.
Thanks for the following which is extracted from your comment.
“Remember Hsin Swe Ywar massacre? Though BCP was marching to its own tune or rather to that of the COMINFORM’s, the taunts that Red Flags were hurling at the former, challenging their manhood with slogans such as Thay Ye Da Alan Nee ( they who dare to die are Red Flags) Taik Ye Da Alan Nee (they who dare to fight are Red Flags) did influence the BCP rank and file’s thinking tipping them in the direction of violence. But this is my personal opinion.”
I think the acts of Red Flag and Thakin Sow were not brave acts. It was mere coward. I remember the newspaper report mentioning seventy (from 14 years old to 50 or 55 years old men) were brutally killed in the cold blooded massacre. When Thakin Soe got pardon from Gen Ne Win. I realized that all are same bred. They help each other. Since then, I did not trust Gen Ne Win and his team any more.
Some more White Flag was doing the “Phyote-htote-that” . I think it was 1969. The son of Lu Du U Hla and Daw Ah Mar, Ko Soe Win was killed. Pho Thoo killed his own father yebaw (Comrade) Htay. Do we think that Burmese Communists can be trusted, respectful? They are cruel, brutal and coward. How could the citizen and government of Burma let communist free.
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Thitinan on Thailand’s long list
@ billyd
I don’t know what provinces billyd has been visiting lately, but in Khon Kaen Province at least the Red Shirt rallies and marches have been large, frequent, and vociferous for all of 2011. The Red Shirt rally this past Saturday at Democracy Monument in Bangkok also had over 50,000 people in attendance. My friend reports that the police in evidence were blatantly wearing either red sleeve bands or bandanas, and were especially welcoming to farangs in attendance.
The wealth of the Crown Property Bureau has been estimated by some sources to be quite a bit more that the $30 billion cited above. I have seen estimates by I think either WSJ, The Economist, or Forbes of at least DOUBLE that amount up to $100 billion or more. Can anyone provide a reliable figure and an explanation for how that figure is arrived at?
One man, the ABC and lese majeste
Yes indeed, there’s a lot of thrashing about going on, the mark of desperate men. Desperate men are dangerous.
Another masonic analogy if you will. The people in power in Thailand should take pause for thought about what will happen when they eventually fail, as they must eventually fail. Perhaps they should live every day as if it were their last, because, most assuredly, one day it will be.
In life or in power, or perhaps both if they aren’t extremely careful in the things they do. But then that is not a trait of Thais…
One man, the ABC and lese majeste
112 Two more victims of lese majeste
Thitinan on Thailand’s long list
Let’s take it a step further – instead of unverified talk of swelling ranks of Red sympathisers throughout Thailand, let us hypothesise that the movement is actually relatively small, marginal and largely rejected by ‘mainstream’ rural/provincial people. Is there any evidence to the contrary? Is talk of ‘taa sawang’ and its cognates – as desirable as it may be – simply overwrought propaganda?
I notice in today’s Bangkok Post an article which describes how Red Shirts in Udon Thani are trying to ‘rebuild the interest and knowledge of people…’ in politics… Hardly Thitinan’s ‘burgeoning new voices’ of the ‘rural masses’… Would the amaart-backed governmnet really be contemplating an election if the Red Shirt movement was as numerically powerful as this article by Thitinan seems to suggest?
Thanthawut Taweewarodomkul gets 13 years
“That is unconstitutional in most societies (and in Thailand since 1932)”
Unconstitutional or not, it would still be a vast improvement on the current ‘system’.
(and it’s a relatively simple change that those ‘still in love’ would find difficult to argue against IMO)
btw, what’s a constitution worth in Thailand, other than toilet tissue?
(please don’t blame me – I’m just stating the obvious)
Thitinan on Thailand’s long list
c1
“A somewhat curious article from a usually perceptive analyst of Thai politics.”
Have to agree – Thitinan gains no more credibility from evidence-free sweeping statements than do some protagonists posting on NM. Given the site where this was published and the length of the piece, I can only assume that he set out to provide just the most general overview – ticking just a few of the main boxes.
I tend to respect his other output that seems to benefit from high-level contacts and insights gained from them – but he seems thin on informed views of what’s going on in the red “base” and at a local level generally. Too long at Johns Hopkins?
Burma in Limbo, part 4
To Maung Maung,
Thanks for your comments on Hla Oo’s essay and his claim about his father Bo Tun Hla.
Your point about the forward written by Kyaw Nyein for the abook about him written by Thein Pe(Phe) Myint.
There are a lot questions on his essay and what Hla Oo is claiming.
There are no documentary evidences provided by him.
CPB Myo Myint did not clearly mention which “Ko Tun Hla” he was referring. This “Ko Tun Hla” may still be “Captain Tun Hla (a) Tekkathol ne Win. Only CPB Myo Myint can confirm it.
Regards
Thitinan on Thailand’s long list
A somewhat curious article from a usually perceptive analyst of Thai politics. He says that the ‘red shirts have grown in number’ – but fails to offer any data to support this claim. How does he know this? Surely not from the demonstrations at which numbers have been far less than at their peak around this time last year. Particularly in the provinces, numbers at Red Shirt rallies are lucky to run into the hundreds, let alone the thousands. So I’m not sure about the veracity of this ‘phantom’ menace.
Further, apart from questioning just who he has in mind in terms of ‘rural masses’ (who are these undifferentiated automatons?) who apparently have no political voice or access to social mobility apart from Thaksin (does Thitinan know nothing of how local politics works?), why must what he calls ‘pandering populism’ be rejected, when he earlier acknowledges this is precisely what his ‘masses’ want? Isn’t this democracy in action?
Yes, the politics of sucession is a key factor in the present situation, but so also is the reality of provincial/rural politics and society which Thitinan seems to know very little about.
Thanthawut Taweewarodomkul gets 13 years
Nganadeeleg 38
“The simple amendment that most Thai’s should have no trouble accepting would be to make it that only the palace can make a LM charge. That would be a significant improvement”
That is unconstitutional in most societies (and in Thailand since 1932)
Be careful what you wish for….
One man, the ABC and lese majeste
The highest institution is the capstone of an edifice with weakening foundations. It’s pillars are the military, police judiciary and civil service and a growing coterie of nouveau-riche latecomers.
Some experts believe that due to an inherent design fault removing the capstone would allow the foundations to collapse. Therefore drastic measures are required to keep the capstone in place.
Some people recommend demolition and installing a modern with firmer foundations.
However opposing camps believe this project would be open to corruption and the design might not be suitable or environmentally sensitive.
….and others yet will argue “if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.”
Apologies for the masonic analogies.
I find myself increasingly thinking of the ruritanian Duchy of Grand Fenwick in the 50’s satire “The Mouse That Roared”
The Cat That Purred” might be more appropriate in this instance?
Burma in Limbo, part 4
Hla Oo,
Your baselss accusation to General Aung San would not make any difference.
You simply write to please your bosses without corroboration and documentary evidences.
So your essay is worth nothing.
Thanthawut Taweewarodomkul gets 13 years
Tony – 34
Suddenly the “number” argument start to matter, where were you when TRT won 17 million vote? btw your 63 million population not going to work here since there were about 30 million legible voters.
Furthermore, “continuous displays of violence”? I mean you could be ghadism, I don’t know but looking else where, violence doesn’t seem to problem. There is literally a war in Libya now I dont see people complaining about “Those that go against Gaddafi lost legitimacy because they pick up arms”. Somehow, peaceful protest is only entitle to the red. (I’m not pro-violence btw, I just want to make a point)
The University of Adelaide and the Chief Minister of Sarawak
Despite education being Australia’s third largest industry, ethical considerations are still too expensive for us.
Well said Greg.
Thanthawut Taweewarodomkul gets 13 years
“But what can replace it”
The simple amendment that most Thai’s should have no trouble accepting would be to make it that only the palace can make a LM charge. That would be a significant improvement
(and trials should be transparent, not secret).
Nick Nostitz on Thailand’s political awakening
Tony, obviously you’re listening to the folks here at new mandala. That’s why you bother commenting to Nick’s article after all, are you not?
Chris, isn’t that a ploy? Most of the comments I’ve read from the reds seems to agree with that notion. That the regime has no credit, and isn’t trustworthy. It has been proven through history and lives of countless Thais to be so.
Thanthawut Taweewarodomkul gets 13 years
Tony, unless you don’t live in Thailand. I very much doubt you haven’t seen any REDs. Your estimation is very much delusions for a falling regime. Hoping that the reds dwindled.
Sadly, the opposite is true. I moved to a new neighborhood in the past year, and yet I still see more REDs than ever. It’s the yellows that are run hiding. Did you see their number on the telly?
Propaganda? We’ve been seeing it for the past 30+ yrs. On free TV, every effin’ day. In fact, I’d bet it’d be a guinness book world record, if anyone were to dare to report it in!
Ralph Kramden, the new case tells us that the ABC program & Wikileaks documents are lese majeste material. And the bail is half a mil? I still can’t believe the idiocy of this regime.
Burma in Limbo, part 4
Dear Maung Maung,
Thanks for interaction and giving information.
To Hla Oo,
I also would like to know when were you studying at RIT if you are the student there in 1970’s because you mention it some where in one part of your essay.
Burma in Limbo, part 4
To Hla Oo,
If you carefully read Bo Kyaw Zaw book, you should mention what Bo Kyaw Zaw said that the real killer of Gen Aung San was British Government.
I strongly believe that British government was master mind and responsible for the murder of Burmese Leaders on 19th July 1947.
It was not just killing of the Gen Aung San and his cabinet colleagues it was killing of the entire Union of Burma.
Hla Oo, you must get it right.
Regards.
Burma in Limbo, part 4
Dear Tun Kyaw Nyein,
I mean Pho Htoo. The spelling was wrong, earlier.
Regards.
Burma in Limbo, part 4
Dear Tun Kyw Nyein,
Thanks for the following which is extracted from your comment.
“Remember Hsin Swe Ywar massacre? Though BCP was marching to its own tune or rather to that of the COMINFORM’s, the taunts that Red Flags were hurling at the former, challenging their manhood with slogans such as Thay Ye Da Alan Nee ( they who dare to die are Red Flags) Taik Ye Da Alan Nee (they who dare to fight are Red Flags) did influence the BCP rank and file’s thinking tipping them in the direction of violence. But this is my personal opinion.”
I think the acts of Red Flag and Thakin Sow were not brave acts. It was mere coward. I remember the newspaper report mentioning seventy (from 14 years old to 50 or 55 years old men) were brutally killed in the cold blooded massacre. When Thakin Soe got pardon from Gen Ne Win. I realized that all are same bred. They help each other. Since then, I did not trust Gen Ne Win and his team any more.
Some more White Flag was doing the “Phyote-htote-that” . I think it was 1969. The son of Lu Du U Hla and Daw Ah Mar, Ko Soe Win was killed. Pho Thoo killed his own father yebaw (Comrade) Htay. Do we think that Burmese Communists can be trusted, respectful? They are cruel, brutal and coward. How could the citizen and government of Burma let communist free.