Comments

  1. Chris Beale says:

    Egypt had – indeed still has, even post-Mubarak – similiar laws to Thailand’s LM, against “insults” to the Head of State.
    Utterly useless against the anti-Mubarak uprising.
    Cairo today – Bangkok tomorrow ?

  2. Chris Beale says:

    Les Abbey – your constant attacks on Dr. Jim Taylor are mostly just silly, and without substance. Instead of giving us a polemic, give some incontrovertible, proven FACTS.
    (I concede you have a point re. Thaksin’s drug war victims and intimidation of the media ). Les – you seem to be indulging in an endless Thaksin-as-Devil-Incarnate rant.
    Andrew Walker’s arguments and anlaysis – as usual, seem to be the best on Thailand coming out of this forum – but I despair at the polemics from so many others.
    The only question I have about Andrew’s analysis is :
    how much weight do FORMAL land titles hold ?
    In Isaarn there are many, many mafia – who don’t give much more than a bag of beans for formal land titles.

  3. Tarrin says:

    I dont see how that is a grill, did I miss something??

  4. Tarrin says:

    LesAbbey – 17

    The UDD couldn’t make a pro-democracy movement out of a campaign to restore Thaksin

    Couldn’t agree more with you on that one, the UDD (and many other group associate to it) should gear the movement more toward changing system, not changing head. I’ve show you the bread wielding reds already, I hope more people will move in that direction.

  5. Christoffer Larsson says:

    The argument that the red-shirt movement is only about restoring the power of Thaksin is the government’s propaganda to dismiss its cause.

    This may be a successful strategy politically to gain more supporters, but for solving the conflicts that Thailand are facing, it’s a disaster that will only cause more chaos and violence.

  6. Vichai N says:

    Sorry Les – 17, but I already knew you’d say what you just said.

    I was more interested in what the people who openly support the Red Shirts: (like John Francis Lee, David Brown, nganadeeleg, Jim Taylor and many more) would say . . . frankly and honestly . . . why the Red Shirt movement, with all its fireworks and fiery rhetorics failed in Y2009, failed again in Y2010 . . . and fail again in Y2011 (if they stick to their tried and failed tactics).

  7. Chris Beale says:

    There won’t be an overt military coup while the current Cobra Gold military exercises with the United States, and other nations, are happening.

  8. FM Slug says:

    http://www.bangkokpost.com/breakingnews/221216/myanmar-times-editor-in-chief-arrested
    QUOTE
    Myanmar Times editor-in-chief arrested
    * Published: 12/02/2011 at 03:07 PM
    * Online news: Local News

    The editor-in-chief and CEO of the Myanmar Times, Australian journalist and businessman Ross Dunkley, has been arrested in Rangoon.

    His detention was confirmed on Saturday by David Armstrong, chairman of Post Media Ltd, publishers of the Phnom Penh Post. Mr Dunkley is also the publisher of the Phnom Penh Post.

    Mr Armstrong expressed deep concern over the arrest.

    “Ross Dunkley was arrested in Yangon (Rangoon) under Myanmar’s Immigration (Emergency Provisions) Act, Section 13(1) on Thursday, Feb 10 after returning from a business trip to Tokyo,” Mr Armstrong said in a statement issued in Phnom Penh.

    “Some reports of the reasons for his arrest have been seriously inaccurate.

    “A key point about the arrest is timing. It coincides with tense and protracted discussions Mr Dunkley and the foreign ownership partners in the Myanmar Times have been conducting with local partners about the future direction of the publishing group, ownership issues and senior leadership roles – all this at a time of significant political and economic change in Myanmar.”

    He said Mr Dunkley is being detained in the notorious Insein prison until his next scheduled court appearance on Feb 24.

    “His lawyers in Yangon say Mr Dunkley is confident he can answer any charges or allegations made against him and is looking forward to returning to lead the Myanmar Times group in the exciting times ahead – for the publishers and the country.”
    UNQUOTE

  9. LesAbbey says:

    Vichai N – 14

    Question is: Why was the Red street protests unsucessful?

    Vichai I think the English saying “You can’t make a silk purse of a sow’s ear.” is rather apt here. The UDD couldn’t make a pro-democracy movement out of a campaign to restore Thaksin.

  10. neptunian says:

    Agree with RN England – I believe the case actually went to international court twice – Ruled in favour of Cambodia both times. Case closed – The Thais are just school yard bullies when it comes to Cambodia, Laos and Burma!

    As for the writer blabber about Oil – The temple is too far inland to have a bearing on off shore boundary – Anyway not much oil of the tonlesap bay – Must admit, oil potential in currently disputed off over lapping off shore area

  11. neptunian says:

    Wow Michael #1, what country do uou think the writer is talking about? USA? Oz?

    Abuse of the law by the police is quite common and it goes across the board. There is not much recourse, unless you are well connected with the political elite.

    The people who are really badly off are the migrant worker from neighbouring countries, not the writer. The writer happened to be at the wrong place at the wrong time, but that doesn’t happen too often. The raids happen quite often – after a failure in “negotiation” by the owners and the “police” in the payment “contract”

    Foreign labour are a different proposition altogether – the police go out of their way to target them for money. Just talk to any taxi driver – guaranteed to be stopped by police if passengers are foreign labour. MOney will change hands – regardless of whether the person concern has his/her legal papers. Cost more if without papers that’s all.

    How does one redress that! What is the recourse – NON

  12. R. N. England says:

    Chris Beale (4). How can an opinion piece on Preah Vihear that fails to mention the judgement of the International Court of Justice be anything but waffle and beating around the bush?
    It is the Thai Government’s contempt for international law that is bringing it into disrepute amongst civilised countries. It doesn’t matter that the attacks on Cambodia are unlikely to have been ordered by any Thai Government, but are the work of an out-of-control army faction. That the Thai Government has gone along with this criminal behaviour is what will count against it in the forum of the UN Security Council.

  13. Christoffer Larsson says:

    yabz, Nicholas, hrk:

    I think measuring the duration of democratic regimes is quite interesting. Then it can also be compared with countries in the rest of the world.

    Adam Przeworski and Fernando Limongi did a study on this of all countries between 1950 and 1990, and classified them in income groups. This is their some of their conclusion:

    In democratic countries with a per capita income of under $1,500, the regime on average had a life expectancy of 8 years. Between $1,500 and $3,000 it survived on average for about 18 years. Between $6,000 and $9,000 democracies become highly resistant. The chance it will die is only 1 in 500. No democracy above the income of $9,000 has ever failed (as of 1990).

    (I have drawn this information from Fareed Zakaria’s book “The Future of Freedom”)

    If Thailand is following the trend of the of the world, the duration of democratic regimes should last longer and longer.

    Thailand’s per capita income currently stands at $4,000, so it should be approaching a state where democracy can take root more permanently (I don’t know what $4,000 is in 1990 dollars, and using per capita income in PPP may be a better measurement anyway).

    In any case I don’t think it’s the income level that is the determinant, but the proportion of middle class (which is quite closely correlated with per capita income).

  14. Sith says:

    Street led Thai Government is not a trustworthy partner in international negotiations

    On Monday, February 14, 2011, the United Nations Security Council will convene on the request of Cambodia to discuss the Thai-Cambodian border issue. While this meeting is doubtlessly a victory for the Cambodian diplomacy, the only question that matters for the Cambodian people is: will it help achieve a lasting solution?

    To everyone, the Thai-Cambodian issue seems to be a simple border conflict as reported world wide by the media and as Indonesia’s Foreign Minister Marty Natalegawa stated ┬лit is a common border dispute like many others among ASEAN countries┬╗. Because of this perception of the problem, the French Foreign Ministry offered France’s help by providing the maps annexed to the 1907 Franco-Siamese Treaty that delimited the frontiers between Siam and Cambodia. The offer was swiftly turned down by the Thai Government. This dismissal clearly shows that, from the Thai point of view, the conflict is not a matter of border demarcation.

    Over the last two years, the Cambodian diplomacy unsuccessfully and hopelessly tried to have the Thai side accepting those maps drawn between 1904 and 1908 as the basis for their border negotiations as they constitute the only legal internationally recognized documents about the Thai-Cambodian border. The Thai dismissal of these maps has to be understood as a blatant rebuff of the June 15, 1962, Judgement of the International Court of Justice of the Hague, as the ruling was entirely based on the Franco-Chinese maps that were annexed to the ruling.

    This far, the Thai stance has obviously been to arrogantly and unilaterally wipe out any legal frameworks. So, what will the UN Security Council meeting be about? The only outcome of the meeting to be reasonably expected is a resolution calling both parties to peacefully settle their dispute. If it were so, then the meeting would be useless as it would only provide another legal frameworks to be rejected by Thailand and leave Cambodia prey to its power politics.

    In this regard, the UNSC has to consider, not only the armed confrontation between the two countries, but the bellicose declarations that were made by Thai leaders. On June 25, 2008, when he was then an opposition leader, Thai Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva said that ┬лThailand had never accepted the map that Cambodia presented to the World Court in 1962┬╗. He also added that ┬лTailand intended to seek the return of Preah Vihear “when the opportunity arose”┬╗. Question is: By what means? The answer was bluntly given on February, 9, 2011, by street opposition leader Sondhi Limthongkul when he urged the Thai military ┬лto seize Cambodian territory, including Angkor Wat, to barter for Preah Vihear Temple┬╗. Democrats led Thailand clearly chose to become an international outlaw.

    To be successful, the UNSC meeting has to be a first step towards finding a lasting solution that is, to begin with, to protect Cambodia, not from small clashes, but from a large scale open conflict as the far superiorly equipped Thai military is building up along the 800 kilometer border between the two countries.

    In this regard, the most important — and the trickiest — problem to be considered by the UNSC is surely the reliability and the relevance of an international outlaw Thai government that does not even care pretending to respect its own agreements. Then how can the current street-led Thai government be a trustworthy partner in any negotiation?

    Without a reliable negotiation partner, Cambodia needs the international protection, the same as she needed during the reign of Pol Pot and that was refused to her. It is to be hoped that this time, the international community would have learnt the lesson and not pretend to give justice to the Cambodian people thirty years later.

  15. Vichai N says:

    After 18 days of unrelenting expanding massive Egyptian peaceful protests demanding transformational change, Mubarak (in power for 30 years) resigns, transfers his powers to the military (is that counted as a ‘coup’ gentlemen), and bloodshed on the streets of Cairo was thankfully avoided. But Egypt is a police state and the world was ecstatic at the success of Egypt’s People Power. Conclusion: A successful popular peaceful street protest at Egypt to remove Mubarak.

    Thaksin, a deeply flawed democratically elected leader (6 years in office), resisted the massive months long peaceful street protests specifically demanding his resignation for a long list of transgressions (Thaksin transgressions still being boringly argued to this day by Thaksin supporters and critics alike) and was ousted by a 2006 Thai military coup (remembered for the ecstatic Bangkok people happy to give flowers to tanks that roared in the streets). For the most part, the world was unhappy at Thailand’s regression to military rule but inevitably adjusted to Thailand’s situation as it quickly reverted to civilian rule. Conclusion: A successul popular peaceful Thai street protest to remove Thaksin S.

    Abhisit resisted violent Red street protests specifically demanding his resignation in year 2009, and then again in Y2010 (punctuated by M79 grenade launchers, high-powered assault rifle attacks and wide-spread arson from violent elements of the Red camp) and as a result there were scores of dead and injured. Abhisit V. remains Thailand PM (with promise to hold elections mid Y2011) and for the most part the Thais (and the world?) approved of his handling of the Red Shirts unrest. Conclusion: Unsuccessful (and unpopular) violent Thai Red Shirts protests to remove Abhisit.

    Question is: Why was the Red street protests unsucessful?

  16. Stuart says:

    The problem with listening to Korn Chatikavanij is it makes it very hard to work up a good hate against the fascist regime. Why can’t he be nasty, brutish and unhinged like all the other despots we see on BBC and Hollywood?

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  18. Ref: LesAbbey // Feb 11, 2011 at 7:28 pm

    Chinese and of course, Japanese/Taiwanese. And a few European/American although they are dwarfed by the others.
    The PAD has also recently brought out news of the government planning to convert tens of thousands of rai of protected forest into title deeds. This move is seen as exploiting the farmers but despite Andrew’s latest article and opposition to it on these pages, I tend to agree that the development of a stronger rural class non-dependent on farming is a perceived potential liability to the elite.
    Farmers can’t generally enjoy farming. They are a subsistence class, preyed upon by middle men, the state and government, work hard and get little in return. They are politically estranged, treated as a subclass and easily manipulated still by PR and money.

  19. Paul says:

    This is so scarily like southern Lao, where Vietnam is the big player, rather than China directly (although Chinese money is important). There westerners who exercise some autonomy (i.e not just there as part of the formal aid industry) have been chased out, sometimes with deaththreats. And it is not a simple take-over, but a deliberate restructuring and development that provincial and local authiorities are deeply embedded in. This includes a kind of political and ethnic integration (e.g. the “election” of a Vietnamese Mayor in Paksong) that seems on the one hand quite cosmopolitan and on the other downright sinister.
    I don’t have any delusions about keeping Lao for the Lao – the Lao Loun were never more than an ethnic minority on the East bank of the Mekong, and any state in that region will always be deeply mixed demographically. Present developments merely serve to show how deluded Lao nationalists are – living in a fanatsy world in which there is a “Lao” state and a “Lao” people – news flash: 80% of Laos are subjects of the Thai king. There should be open discussion about the likely outcomes of current trends, for the good of all affected by them.

  20. chris beale says: