Comments

  1. kyaw says:

    Moe Aung,

    I agree the official figure is not perfect. For example, it is inflated by those who were forced to vote, like civil servants. Their vote can not be considered an expression of a desire to vote, although some of them would have voted anyway. And of course the advance votes of unknown provenance are included as well. And there is little oversight for how the figures were collated etc.

    But having been in downtown Yangon (which had probably the lowest official voter turnout rates in the city, about 50pc including advance votes) on November 7 I can say they roughly reflected what I saw, for what that’s worth. And speaking afterwards to candidates who watched the vote counting, the figures seem roughly accurate.

    How the parliament operates remains to be seen. Obviously it will be a restricted environment by dint of the USDP’s overwhelming majority. Whether the opposition candidates get reported and heard will depend on reporters working for both internal (censored) and external (exile) media. My biggest worry is that the parliament will only sit once a year.

    I guess we should agree to disagree on Marie Lall’s piece.. But I personally don’t think the vote-rigging means the parties were wrong to contest the election. I don’t think they “fell for it”, because they were also anticipating this would happen, but not to this extent. Most, correctly as it turned out, did not anticipate much success in 2010.

    Neverfree,

    I’ve been told Daw Aung San Suu Kyi’s first sit-down interview following her release was with reporters from the Washington Post and Myanmar Times. I suppose that shouldn’t necessarily be taken as a reflection on the “hypocrite” Ross Dunkley, though. She has, like you, been pretty critical of Myanmar Times in the past, particularly its close links to MI when it was founded. Maybe it’s an indication of a more conciliatory attitude.

  2. Hla Oo says:

    Since the beginning of WW2 Burmese politics was basically dominated by Aung San and his leftwing extreme-nationalist group of Rangoon University Student Union leaders .

    Even well before Aung San’s assassination and sudden British withdrawal that dominant group split into two camps Communists and Socialists. And that two sides have been killing each other since 1948 in our never ending civil war. Ethnic rebels are just the extras in the main play of Communist\Socialist conflict.

    As the civil war greatly intensified, the Socialists eventually morphed into a leftwing military dictatorship under Ne Win and the Communists turned into a Chinese-backed ethnic army. As we all know the Burmese army won and CPB basically collapsed as China reinvented herself as a market economy.

    But the end of cold war and the extreme hardship under BSPP rule also forced the socialist army to reinvent itself as a rightwing military dictatorship. Unfortunately for the army our accidental hero ASSK appeared out of nowhere and become a thorn in their collective sole since 1988.

    From the very beginning ASSK did make two major mistakes. First was not cooperating (or compromising) with the dormant Socialist leaders like U Nu and Aung Gyi in forming a rival people government while the army was gravely weak in 1988.

    Second mistake was surrounding herself with ex-Communists and ex-army types. Both mistakes forced her away from the Socialists and the army and pushed her onto the outer of Burmese politics and eventually she was forced into taking uncompromising stance against the army.

    She was even hated by some section of Burmese society for her extremely unpopular calls to the West to impose harsh sanctions against her own people as she tried to isolate the Burmese army politically and economically.

    Contrary to popular beliefs and western media portrayal Burmese Army has its own people following since the beginning. It wasn’t the army that alone fought the civil war last 60 odd years. The UMP, Sitwundan, Pyusawhti, Pyithusit, and the latest USDA are the various forms of army-built grass root paramilitary organizations that have fought the Communists and the ethnics since 1948.

    The 5000 men from USDA (now USDP) that brutally attacked her convoy in Depayin in 2003 was such a mob and Burmese Army has a long history of ruthlessly unleashing that sort of armed-paramilitary against Communists and ethnics and the dissenting public.

    Now the militant USDP as the ruling party rising out of the so-called sham elections on the government side and ASSK as the leader of democratic people movement on the opposition side Burma will still be in limbo for a very long time as she has been for last 60 odd years.

  3. LesAbbey says:

    Martino – 3

    …dare I say Thaksin (what with his recent experiences that add to his romance)…

    You could be right. Thaksin did seem quite fond of the Generals when he was in power so maybe it’s losing power and trying to regain it that brings on the rhetoric.

  4. BKK lawyer says:

    I’ve been waiting to make this comment and a response to Ramos-Horta seems the right place to say it: While I’m glad Aung San Suu Kyi has been released, it bears remembering that the only reason she was released was that her unjust sentence came to its scheduled end.

    She was not released early, she was not released for any kind of humanitarian reason or concession to democracy or gesture of goodwill by the junta. And if she oversteps any boundaries that free people never have to worry about, she will be imprisoned again. She was unjustly detained and unjustly convicted and the junta continues to regard her as a criminal. Like everyone else in Burma, she is still not free.

    Therefore it is ridiculous to conclude that her release warrants any thanks or concessions to the junta. Whatever one thinks of the UN or US sanctions against Burma, Suu Kyi’s release does not change anything. It does not warrant any lessening of the worldwide opprobrium that the junta has always deserved and will deserve until it is gone.

  5. Arthur says:

    go to this link, scroll down last paragraph page 361

    http://bit.ly/b7ZtXY

  6. Polyphemus says:

    Les Abbey, 26
    If I was to compile a list of my least favourite politicians, Thaksin would be at the top. Shortly after him would come the usual suspects, in no particular order Newin (Sr & Jr), Banharn, Snoh, Suthep, Chavalit, Sanan, Chalerm, the late, lamented Samak etc etc ad nauseum. They are all of a species.
    Thaksin and Abhisit are however big disappointments. We all expected better of them. Thaksin succumbed to greed and hubris early on and you have to hypothesise at what it is Abhisit has succumbed to. ( re the quantum theory) I’d say it’s the submerged part of the iceberg.
    No, I had big hopes for the golden boy to make something of the poisoned chalice he was handled. I can’t say who could have done better in the same circumstances but I think it’s safe to say that he has disappointed many.
    What Thailand has not found yet is a politician with the courage, strength, respect, stature, dedication and moral authority to “develop” the system. Perhaps the system is incapable of producing another Pridi, or indeed the system is now deliberately engineered not to….
    Education is a dangerous thing in the wrong hands.
    Time will tell.
    I didn’t mention the resurgent military did I? Well perhaps it’s safer not to?

  7. chris beale says:

    Charles F. #21 :
    Difficult to see your suggestions working, without major splits within the Tatmadaw.
    ASSK’s best option is the one she is now pursuing – which may indeed lead to major splits within the military.

  8. It’s the rape of Lao by the neoliberal, global capitalist gang, with the World Bank financing them.

  9. chris beale says:

    Nobody seems willing – or daring – to mention it : but I will.
    Paul Handley writes about a certain very high, very influential foreign figure from outside Burma, being steadfastly against Aung San Suu Kyi.
    Now that this influential figure is disappearing, perhaps Burma’s generals – and many others – are taking out an insurance policy, by being more amenable.
    It does seem to me – that in this respect, at least – the situation is now very different from previous battles The Lady has had to
    fight, and previous times she has been released.
    Obviously this was too delicate for Nicholas to mention – but it is an important factor.

  10. But what have they failed to anticipate? Could they prove to be blindsided by a regional effort, backed by South-East Asian voices, to support a genuinely free democratic process at this pivotal moment?

    There has been no regional effort… there will be no regional effort. There has been no serious international effort… there will be no serious international effort.

    In fact the regional and international efforts will be even less than the pitiful ‘efforts’ in the past. Not only the Chinese will hide behind the ‘partially-democratic’ smokescreen (as though the thoroughly undemocratic Chinese regime gave a fig about democracy at all).

    The people of Burma, like the people of Afghanistan, of Palestine, of Iraq are entirely on their own. Those who profess to want to be ‘of help’ are just in lie for a piece of the action and not to be trusted in any case.

  11. Nigel says:

    I found the comments by John (9) interesting, but handicapped by a misapprehension about the nature of culture. I would agree, as he suggests, that the fundamental reason why Thailand suffers from curruption, and has not developed politically since 1932, probably has a great deal to do with the enormous inertia presented by Thai culture, particularly the acceptance of, and even preference for, an unequal distribution of power, the insidious influence of grateful-relationship networks from the top to the bottom of society, the lack of a debating culture, and the flexibility in moral judgements according to the situation. These aspects of Thai culture are barriers to any kind of egalitarian democracy. Rather, they favour paternalistic and corrupt personality cults. I would, however, disagree with one fundamental view that John appears to hold. Cultural values are not foisted on the poor by the rich but are learned in homes and schools at every level of society from the cradle onwards. That is the reason why change is so difficult. Corruption is facilitated by cultural patterns which emerged over the centuries and are likely to change very slowly, if at all.

  12. Greg Lopez says:

    Is there a way to hold Singapore accountable for aiding and abetting the Burmese junta?

    (1) Is there something in banking secrecy laws that can compel the banks that provide the avenues for the junta to pile up their ill-gotten gains and also as Hla Oo mentioned – the movement of drug money – to give information to the public?

    (2) Will it be good to maybe publish the links that Singapore has – and ask shareholders of all the MNCs headquartered in Singapore to either put pressure on Singapore or threaten to relocate away;

    (3) Can the EU or Australia or any of the big powers, in signing FTAs, put pressure on Singapore to stop its support for the junta.

    Clearly, the support to the junta must be cut-off for further progress to happen.

  13. It's Martino says:

    Nobody in mainland Southeast Asia will support her to a greater extent than they did while she was in prison. The coterie of leaders that may have done so vociferously: Anwar Ibrahim, dare I say Thaksin (what with his recent experiences that add to his romance), are not in power. What about Susilo and Aquino?

    Thailand supports her release??, but why does Thailand support her release? Maybe it’s my anti-Abhisit tinted glasses, but wouldn’t Thai support be more for domestic-vote winning than support for political change in Burma? How can it be said what support is for when everything appears win-win? Bit of regional progression here, bit of domestic vote winning there…

    I don’t know.. I need to drink more.

  14. It's Martino says:

    I think the World Bank will continue to promote NT2 as a flagship project irrespective of whether or not new livelihoods are competitive. As if governance problems with some resettled farmers is going to prevent NT2 from being promoted when there is such ‘positives’ and experience that the NT2 has provided. It’s clearly a shiny, fleshy and delicious apple, not an apple with a worm in it!

  15. Moe Aung says:

    kyaw,

    You obviously believe the official figure of t wo-thirds voter turn out in Yangon. And yes, people did say ‘anyone but them’. It’s still them regardless. http://www.irrawaddy.org/article.php?art_id=20022 So we now have a few voices in parliaments, or is it in the wilderness? Will they get reported and their voices heard?

    Marie Lall’s more recent trend I’m afraid is so yesterday already for her to have stumbled upon it post-election.

    Charles F.,

    Very true, they don’t have their own little island to go back to, unlike the British colonial rulers. So it’s inevitably going to be totally ruthless, nasty and brutal if it does blow up. Perhaps that’s the only exit strategy the generals are capable of contemplating. Sadly it may be our country’s fate, faced with primitive rulers, to go through something that ought to be a thing of the past in the 21st C.

  16. Vichai N says:

    Those “violent murderous reds” you fear so much… Who built the conditions for their evolution? (#25)

    I really wish to know Polyphemus. You posed the rhetorical question; e.g. hinting you know who . . . built the conditions to create ‘violent murderous reds’. Give me a convincing education Polyphemus on this very matter.

  17. Sarinda says:

    Good question Keith!

    I also came across the motorbike driving Vietnamese general-traders in Attapeu, where there was a rapid increase in Vietnamese residents/workers since Route 18B was completed.

    In Ban Sekong, the 3-4 groups of rosewood traders I met were Vietnamese-Khmer or Vietnamese working with Khmer assistants. But perhaps becuase of the poor roads and remoteness, they seemed to be less random than the motorbike-traders and more coming thru pre-established connections. Rosewood trading in Nakai in central Laos seems similar to this.

    Unfortunately, I do not speak Khmer or Vietnamese, so I could not find out more.

  18. Robert says:

    Unfortunately for the people who live in Burma, China seems to only care about getting access to an Indian Ocean port for its navy and commercial ships, to complete the pipeline and truck freight highway from the Indian Ocean to Kumming and to get its hands on Burma’s oil, gas and minerals.

    India’s hands are tied due to its total dependence on the port and railway in western Burma which is India’s only real access to its troubled Northeastern provinces, as well, of course, as being in desperate need of Burma’s oil and gas and its position vis-a-vis China.

    Thailand now depends on Burma’s gas for about 50 percent of its national electricity production and the new 10 billion USD port/infrastructure project headed by Thai-Italian Engineering pretty much seals the deal between the Thai ruling group and Burma’s generals.

    Singapore? With all those billions from Burma’s generals piling up in the Singapore banks, it’s hard to see the government of Singapore doing much.

    Which leaves the impoverished and down-trodden Burma people pretty much on their own and their released leader completely vulnerable 24/7 to the general’s green light to the sniper.

  19. LesAbbey says:

    Steve – 27

    So, by your definition, does Abhisit taking office through having the accomplished BJT foxes brought into the hen-house still leave him “sweet smelling” ?

    For governments, no the bad smell comes along with the Chidchobs, the Silpa-archas, plenty of southern Democrats and so on. How much does it rub off on Abhisit we will find out in the future. Chuan seemed to be able to keep his own reputation even when his governments were being pilloried for corruption.

    I still can’t but help thinking of the Chatchai buffet cabinet though. Again we had people welcoming a coup to see the back of such blatant corruption, little knowing that a year down the line Suchinda would make a grab for the leadership.

    Although probably a bit before your time Steve, I was one of those, although not exactly jumping for joy, thought that possibly Thaksin with his authoritarian style might have made a big difference to the usual corrupt political system when he was first elected.

    Now credit where credit is due, he continued the removal of low level civil service corruption that effects our daily lives in Thailand. He didn’t enjoy that much success with the police with whom he had close relations for some reason. You have to remember that he had run very much on two planks, of anti-foreigner dressed up as anti-IMF, and as anti-corruption using the argument that he was so rich already he had no need to be corrupt and the usual suspects in his TRT would be on his payroll so have no need of corrupt income.

    How well he fooled us, ending up as just another Thai-Chinese businessman-politician making sure his family, friends and allies got their noses in the trough.