Chris Beale: Don’t forget in Thailand, PM Thaksin was always happy to go to the electorate to renew his mandate, so military coup would still have had to be used to get rid of him before the people were ready to do it.
New Mandala and other such forums have helped highlight the attempts to develope/refine a Thai style ‘constitutional coup’ process so that the ‘ugly’ military coup option won’t be needed in future, but it’s clear those in power know it also helps having the ‘right’ people in the right positions (like military & police chiefs).
btw, if Oz style constitutional coups ocurred in Oz as regularly as military coups do in Thailand then I doubt the process would remain bloodless.
Chris, thanks for the tip but I think they are promoting a particular type of milk. In Australia, “Breast is Best” is a common slogan for this important public health issue. AW
When I download the podcast to my computer, I get a very small mp3 file and a mere 6 second audio clip. This actually happens with several other recent podcasts on the College of Asia and Pacific podcast list, such as Haberkorn’s and Chakrabarty’s talks, but not others, such as the On the Brink Human Rights talks. Same method for downloading, but very different results. Any idea of what is going on?
I can certainly sympathise (to a degree) with the frustrations of those who believe there is a genuine republican movement underway, when they come up against those who believe Thailand overwhelmingly supports the King and / or the institution of the monarchy (the two are very separate, of course). When they cannot even poll to gauge the level of support they have amongst Thais, it’s quite understandably frustrating – I’m sure.
But as Portman pointed out above, their position (which would be inherently valid, if not popularly supported) is just completely comprised by their grasping onto anything and everything that presents as ‘anti-monarchist’. The enemy of your enemy is not your friend.
Backing Thaksin in a fight with the Thai monarchy? It’s not only unconscionable on the basis of human rights concerns and relative ‘freedom’; it’s strategically foolish as well.
Replacing the Thai monarchy with King Taksin? Heaven help us.
I may have to concede to your expertise there, Chris. I profess I know little of military affairs. I merely got those figures from an online search; and I vaguely remember reading that Cambodia were provoking Thailand very foolishly (due to relative military weakness) when they offered Thaksin an ‘Advisory’ government position.
But perhaps they share your confidence. I admit I’m more of a numbers man. I agree with you that the chances of a war between the two nations are so small as to be negligible. And I agree that if a Thaksin-funded government is elected again, and makes overtures to ‘mend’ the Constitution again, the Army will roll in. Again.
I was surprised to read today that the junior coalition parties were pushing for 1-person, 1-vote. I would have thought they’d all (especially BJT) prefer the disproportionate system that currently favours Peau Thai?
Ralph Kramden #26 and Les Abbey # 27 :
it must be Nicholas following Oxford’s famed tolerance of an extremely wide range of opinions, which allows this pursuing of Ji’s
very wide-of-mainstream views.
Trotskyists are incredibly marginal in Western societies – even more so in Thailand.
I pity you Ralph – having to “wade” through all that SWP stuff.
Les Abbey’s equivalent of that old Chinese curse :
“may you live in interesting times ” !!
Actually – it does not necessarily translate as “breast is best”.
“Nom wa di” can also be translated simply as “milk is best”.
Thai is a very succinct language – perhaps too succinct on this matter.
John Francis Lee # 15 :
Theoretically – and apparently quite legally – the Queen could do that in the UK.
Though what triggered this in Australia was the blocking of Supply (i.e the Government’s Budget) by Australia’s Senate – a power which the UK House of Lords lost in 1911.
I don’t know why the Thais don’t adopt a similar system to Australia’s – with a powerful Senate and “reserve powers of The Crown”. Surely at least this would mean a way of having coups without bloodshed.
Nobody was killed during Oz’s “constitutional coup” !!
Jstin J. Mitcehll #20 :
1) “The Royal Thai Armed Forces (~600,000 military personnel, ~$6,000,000,000 budget) have an equal chance of losing against protesters or the Cambodian military. In percentage terms, 0%.”
I assume what you are saying here, is that in the event of war between Thailand and Cambodia, the Thai military would win because of far superior numbers, funds, and equipment.
You may be correct – but I’m not so sure, because :
a) Cambodia’s military is far more battle-hardened, and has more recent battle experience than most Thai military (excepting those who have served in Pattani – but then they’ve been beaten to a stalemate by far smaller separatist forces).
b) the Thai military has rarely been terribly effective fighting anyone other than its’ own citizens
c) Hun Sen’s Cambodia would be backed by Vietnam, even militarily backed by Vietnam, if it looked like Hun Sen was going to be defeated.
Anyhow this all seems quite unlikely – I hope I made that clear in my post – though not so long ago The Nation’s Ongkapa (?) was mentioning a Thai military contingency plan to attack Cambodia and wipe out the Red Shirts.
I’m pretty certain it was Ongkapa – but would have to check this further.
Far more likely than hard Left revolution, is yet another Thai
coup. Perhaps a Thai Chavez may emerge.
“a pattern of political manipulation of key state institutions including the police, public prosecutor’s office and the judiciary”.
Someone please tell me what did Amnesty International say about the 2006 Thai coup, the disband of political parties, the involvement of military in the formation of subsequent coalition and the heavy-handed disperse of redshirts protestors in 2009 and 2010.
Protest, violence, disolution of party, possibility of coup, bombings, death etc have become the norm of Thai polticis. Business has factored in those things in terms of exposure. What would upset the applecart would be something different from the norm. In this case meaning a very extreme event.
A change in parliament or government would not be this. We have already seen a nominee government and it didnt do anything. A coup would probably not be this as w ehave already seen that happen when the army was more divided. With the current red leadership there isnt going to be anything anywhere near left of center happen, so it wont come from that direction. The PAD with their almost leninist protectionist anti-globalisation economic ideas arent going to be anywhere near power, and every other player is to some degree or other pro-globalisation.
Maybe when it is all factored in what we see as big changes and important in Thailand may not in what business leaders look at be very big or important to them at all. There dont seem to be many unknown risks that arent already factored in to decision making. They also probably have other worrries to think about in terms of what western governments are doing about their economies.
Very interesting and highly informative discussion. Thanks!
I have heard it said that whether or not you like their politics, from a foreign affairs point of view the generals are good to deal with, and usually are able to (at least privately) achieve what they say they will. Much more so than say dealing with the Thai leadership. Although this was from a source many years ago – so the situation may have changed a lot now, as highlighted by the lack of functionality during the Nargis aid trickle.
Just one small technical issue: the synch is out from about the 2 minute mark.
Further to @T #6, if the alignment shown it is accurate (ie. passing through Burma) what is the possibility of the line branching off and heading through Kengtung? Last year while visiting Kengtung I saw the beginning of construction work that was purportedly the terminus for a train line between Kengtung and Taunggyi (and beyond).
Also I imagine there would be implications for the locals in making any proposed alignment ‘safe’ from banditry (real or imagined).
Thanks for this Nich. It’s really great to see New Mandala put together a pod/vodcast series on the election. I do hope that you get the opportunity to interview some Burmese academics in the coming episodes.
I have one comment regarding Morten Pederson’s statement about a “generational change” coming out of the elections. This has been a pretty common prediction since early 2010. However, with Thein Sein appointed as USPD chairperson, it seems quite likely that he will serve as president following the elections with perhaps Shwe Mann as vice-president and Than Shwe continuing to hold all the strings in some (possibly unofficial) capacity. There are also plenty of other relatively senior figures who will presumably take on new ‘civilian’ positions post-elections. So, where’s the generational change? If it happens at all, I can’t see it as an immediate outcome of the elections, but rather a result of ill-health and/or death further down the line.
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Chris Beale: Don’t forget in Thailand, PM Thaksin was always happy to go to the electorate to renew his mandate, so military coup would still have had to be used to get rid of him before the people were ready to do it.
New Mandala and other such forums have helped highlight the attempts to develope/refine a Thai style ‘constitutional coup’ process so that the ‘ugly’ military coup option won’t be needed in future, but it’s clear those in power know it also helps having the ‘right’ people in the right positions (like military & police chiefs).
btw, if Oz style constitutional coups ocurred in Oz as regularly as military coups do in Thailand then I doubt the process would remain bloodless.
Breast is best
Chris, thanks for the tip but I think they are promoting a particular type of milk. In Australia, “Breast is Best” is a common slogan for this important public health issue. AW
Burma votes 2010 – Episode 1
When I download the podcast to my computer, I get a very small mp3 file and a mere 6 second audio clip. This actually happens with several other recent podcasts on the College of Asia and Pacific podcast list, such as Haberkorn’s and Chakrabarty’s talks, but not others, such as the On the Brink Human Rights talks. Same method for downloading, but very different results. Any idea of what is going on?
Ji Ungpakorn on the military and the monarchy
I can certainly sympathise (to a degree) with the frustrations of those who believe there is a genuine republican movement underway, when they come up against those who believe Thailand overwhelmingly supports the King and / or the institution of the monarchy (the two are very separate, of course). When they cannot even poll to gauge the level of support they have amongst Thais, it’s quite understandably frustrating – I’m sure.
But as Portman pointed out above, their position (which would be inherently valid, if not popularly supported) is just completely comprised by their grasping onto anything and everything that presents as ‘anti-monarchist’. The enemy of your enemy is not your friend.
Backing Thaksin in a fight with the Thai monarchy? It’s not only unconscionable on the basis of human rights concerns and relative ‘freedom’; it’s strategically foolish as well.
Replacing the Thai monarchy with King Taksin? Heaven help us.
Come the revolution?
I may have to concede to your expertise there, Chris. I profess I know little of military affairs. I merely got those figures from an online search; and I vaguely remember reading that Cambodia were provoking Thailand very foolishly (due to relative military weakness) when they offered Thaksin an ‘Advisory’ government position.
But perhaps they share your confidence. I admit I’m more of a numbers man. I agree with you that the chances of a war between the two nations are so small as to be negligible. And I agree that if a Thaksin-funded government is elected again, and makes overtures to ‘mend’ the Constitution again, the Army will roll in. Again.
I was surprised to read today that the junior coalition parties were pushing for 1-person, 1-vote. I would have thought they’d all (especially BJT) prefer the disproportionate system that currently favours Peau Thai?
Review of Bombay Anna
“The English Governess at the Siamese Court” can be downloaded free from the Project Gutenberg site:
http://www.gutenberg.org/ebooks/8678
Ji Ungpakorn on the military and the monarchy
Ralph Kramden #26 and Les Abbey # 27 :
it must be Nicholas following Oxford’s famed tolerance of an extremely wide range of opinions, which allows this pursuing of Ji’s
very wide-of-mainstream views.
Trotskyists are incredibly marginal in Western societies – even more so in Thailand.
I pity you Ralph – having to “wade” through all that SWP stuff.
Les Abbey’s equivalent of that old Chinese curse :
“may you live in interesting times ” !!
Breast is best
Actually – it does not necessarily translate as “breast is best”.
“Nom wa di” can also be translated simply as “milk is best”.
Thai is a very succinct language – perhaps too succinct on this matter.
Anwar Ibrahim at the ANU
The spokesperson of Amnesty International better answer this.
Priority number one
John Francis Lee # 15 :
Theoretically – and apparently quite legally – the Queen could do that in the UK.
Though what triggered this in Australia was the blocking of Supply (i.e the Government’s Budget) by Australia’s Senate – a power which the UK House of Lords lost in 1911.
I don’t know why the Thais don’t adopt a similar system to Australia’s – with a powerful Senate and “reserve powers of The Crown”. Surely at least this would mean a way of having coups without bloodshed.
Nobody was killed during Oz’s “constitutional coup” !!
Come the revolution?
Jstin J. Mitcehll #20 :
1) “The Royal Thai Armed Forces (~600,000 military personnel, ~$6,000,000,000 budget) have an equal chance of losing against protesters or the Cambodian military. In percentage terms, 0%.”
I assume what you are saying here, is that in the event of war between Thailand and Cambodia, the Thai military would win because of far superior numbers, funds, and equipment.
You may be correct – but I’m not so sure, because :
a) Cambodia’s military is far more battle-hardened, and has more recent battle experience than most Thai military (excepting those who have served in Pattani – but then they’ve been beaten to a stalemate by far smaller separatist forces).
b) the Thai military has rarely been terribly effective fighting anyone other than its’ own citizens
c) Hun Sen’s Cambodia would be backed by Vietnam, even militarily backed by Vietnam, if it looked like Hun Sen was going to be defeated.
Anyhow this all seems quite unlikely – I hope I made that clear in my post – though not so long ago The Nation’s Ongkapa (?) was mentioning a Thai military contingency plan to attack Cambodia and wipe out the Red Shirts.
I’m pretty certain it was Ongkapa – but would have to check this further.
Far more likely than hard Left revolution, is yet another Thai
coup. Perhaps a Thai Chavez may emerge.
Anwar Ibrahim at the ANU
“a pattern of political manipulation of key state institutions including the police, public prosecutor’s office and the judiciary”.
Someone please tell me what did Amnesty International say about the 2006 Thai coup, the disband of political parties, the involvement of military in the formation of subsequent coalition and the heavy-handed disperse of redshirts protestors in 2009 and 2010.
Ji Ungpakorn on the military and the monarchy
What I find interesting in all these debates about military and royal institution is that so little gets said about the CPB and other businesses.
Review of Nattawut Saikua biography
Portman C36. I think Chalerm recently outlined exactly what the party was for
Come the revolution?
Protest, violence, disolution of party, possibility of coup, bombings, death etc have become the norm of Thai polticis. Business has factored in those things in terms of exposure. What would upset the applecart would be something different from the norm. In this case meaning a very extreme event.
A change in parliament or government would not be this. We have already seen a nominee government and it didnt do anything. A coup would probably not be this as w ehave already seen that happen when the army was more divided. With the current red leadership there isnt going to be anything anywhere near left of center happen, so it wont come from that direction. The PAD with their almost leninist protectionist anti-globalisation economic ideas arent going to be anywhere near power, and every other player is to some degree or other pro-globalisation.
Maybe when it is all factored in what we see as big changes and important in Thailand may not in what business leaders look at be very big or important to them at all. There dont seem to be many unknown risks that arent already factored in to decision making. They also probably have other worrries to think about in terms of what western governments are doing about their economies.
Burma votes 2010 – Episode 1
Very interesting and highly informative discussion. Thanks!
I have heard it said that whether or not you like their politics, from a foreign affairs point of view the generals are good to deal with, and usually are able to (at least privately) achieve what they say they will. Much more so than say dealing with the Thai leadership. Although this was from a source many years ago – so the situation may have changed a lot now, as highlighted by the lack of functionality during the Nargis aid trickle.
Just one small technical issue: the synch is out from about the 2 minute mark.
Railroad ready to roll in Laos
Simon,
Further to @T #6, if the alignment shown it is accurate (ie. passing through Burma) what is the possibility of the line branching off and heading through Kengtung? Last year while visiting Kengtung I saw the beginning of construction work that was purportedly the terminus for a train line between Kengtung and Taunggyi (and beyond).
Also I imagine there would be implications for the locals in making any proposed alignment ‘safe’ from banditry (real or imagined).
Burma votes 2010 – Episode 1
Thanks for this Nich. It’s really great to see New Mandala put together a pod/vodcast series on the election. I do hope that you get the opportunity to interview some Burmese academics in the coming episodes.
I have one comment regarding Morten Pederson’s statement about a “generational change” coming out of the elections. This has been a pretty common prediction since early 2010. However, with Thein Sein appointed as USPD chairperson, it seems quite likely that he will serve as president following the elections with perhaps Shwe Mann as vice-president and Than Shwe continuing to hold all the strings in some (possibly unofficial) capacity. There are also plenty of other relatively senior figures who will presumably take on new ‘civilian’ positions post-elections. So, where’s the generational change? If it happens at all, I can’t see it as an immediate outcome of the elections, but rather a result of ill-health and/or death further down the line.
Priority number one
Two red-shirt women to be arrested for lèse majesté
Priority number one
Chris Beale #9
Wow! Can the Queen do that in the UK itself, or just in her Commonwealth colonies?