Re. Bangkok Post and The Nation reports of 50,000 pro-government supporters rallying in Udon Thani :
last time I looked the entire population of Udon Thani was barely 100,000.
Hard to believe half of them turned out against Thaksin – in this most-Thaksin loyal city.
2013: the king dies before the 2011 election deadline, elections and politics generally are put on hold for a perhaps unconstitutional but more easily justified one-year mourning, and are then scheduled for another 5-6 months after that.
If he doesn’t die, I bet they don’t have a plan yet.
Millennialist thought: It would be interesting and incredibly heavy if the king, Prem (90 years old) and the supreme patriarch (96) all die in the same year.
Andre #9 – yes : I agree there is now considerable student activity, perhaps the beginning of an uprising even.
I’ve been trying to tell people about this on the Web – to almost no avail.
“can the Democrats (and their backers) risk an election at any time before the king passes and the royal succession is resolved?”
What evidence is there that HMK has not ALREADY passed away ?
Resolving the royal succession may be at least a year away AFTER we get the formal announcement of HMK’s passing, and the subsequent year of very genuine national mourning.
No early election, and probably no election at all – except eventually one which favours PAD’s New Politics Party.
chupong red: 5
Agrarian Revolution? Killing Fields? 4 legs good, 2 legs bad?
Er, no thanks, I’d rather die for a corrupt democrat than a corrupt commisar. (Either way Newin would come up smelling of rose shit)
Shame on those 4 thumbs up too, whoever you are, you’ve been educated to know better.
So the consensus seems to be that the Democrat’s and/or its backers should be (0r are) rooting for someone’s mortality (as opposed to immortality) to expire in late 2011?
I guess the answer is as long as a piece of string. It seems to me unlikely that there will be an election this year. For that to happen there would need to be some clear indication that the “Democrats” and their allies were reasonably sure of winning and the portents currently don’t seem very favourable for them. Even if they thought they could win, they would need to convince Prayuth and his cohorts, who are likely to take a very conservative view of their prospects.
I reckon the best bet is late 2011, but at, say, no more than a 40% chance at best, that is still odds against. Anything after that would mean going beyond the present parliament’s constitutional term and, once that deadline is broken, you will need a crystal ball to predict anything.
As noted in posts above, the wild card in all this is the the succession question . So, all in all there is no date that I’d be prepared to put any money on
Delaying the election is easy prior to term expiration in Dec 2011; Abhisit can claim “progress” and the army can play the stability and reconciliation cards. It’s weak tea, but enough against the proactive call for _early_ elections.
After Dec 2011, the standard for excuse goes way up. Now you’re talking about proactive _delay_ of Constitutionally mandated elections. Based on priors, Abhisit doesn’t look to have the stomach for that kind of totalitarianism. The army/elites/privy council/etc do, but IMHO they’re more pragmatist than posters here think — after all, the “elites” own the largest stake in the economy, which appears to be doing well.
They’re probably hoping succession comes before Dec 2011, which buys them two years while the nation goes bound and gagged in its finest black. But if it doesn’t? Breaking the constitution won’t play well with the moderates, the media, or small parties anxious for the next dealing of cabinet posts. It might not even play well with the Democrats, who may smell a shot at legitimacy. Add to that the 55%+ of the country that already distrusts the army, and you’ve got 1992 all over again, or worse.
The army would have to suspend or ignore their own Constitution, providing the reds with the pretext for another Bangkok take-over, only this time with more support from moderates and ambivalence from the actual ruling party. Playing the “monarchy protection” card was a marginal victory at best in May this year — playing it again from a weaker position next year will reveal its hollowness once and for all. And someone up there must know it.
My half-assed prediction is that they will delay through autumn 2011, but if succession looks too far off the army will let the Democrats roll the dice and hope for a 47%-47% detente with PT. The election lets off steam, and the Parliamentary deadlock buys more time.
That gives them one year to let Korn show some competence, wait for the NPP to go away, shoot down Thaksin’s plane, re-open Zen at Central World, and hope PT self-destructs. All within reach.
My four-inch thick Webster’s Unabridged Dictionary of the English Language does not even include the alternative spelling, just lese majesty. Size, in this case, apparently does not matter. As an American, in such cases, I usually have to resort to Oxford’s, but in this case it did not help.
“In reality, Thailand’s democracy has suffered from severe instability since the coup”
Is Crispin a native speaker of English? This phrase is semantically incongruous, perhaps in this “reality” another “better” coup will
bring a more stable democracy.
I suppose some out there will dismiss this article as just another hatchet
job but in Crispin’s reality, Crispins’s Thailand and Crispin’s democracy this stuff can be distributed with impunity. I think “impunity” is a sign that you have really made it in Thailand. Congratulations Shawn
I am tilting towards when enough blood has been spilled and international community get off their asses.
Could be any date in next, oh, let’s see, 50years?
And by that I mean Thailand achieving a level of democratic consolidation. Not just some random vote that’s then overthrown by some dodgy court decision, a loony neo-fascist group or the army.
Lots of intriguing discussion here: being read far and wide. I hope the following guesstimate encourages others to weigh in with their own best guesses…
My impression of the evidence, Small Axe, broadly aligns with your thoughts as presented here. And I agree with those who suggest that the timing of the king’s passing is crucial to any such electoral calculations. The idea that “[m]ore likely, though, they will find it easier to postpone an election than roll back a result they don’t like” is one that I find especially persuasive. For that reason I think we are unlikely to see a 2011 poll and even 2012 starts to appear unduly busy; depending on what happens in the meantime.
Their report is probably The Nation’s attempt to achieve the “success” the Bangkok Post had in 1976 with it’s faked photo of Thammasat students “hanging the Crown Prince in effigy”.
I think the recent botched, betrayal of the Red shirts by the PPT “leadership” coupled with the putsch’s foolish imprisonment of the leaders of the Spring 2010 uprising will force the Red shirts to reform from the ground up, and I think that’s good. So I think there will be no election until the Red shirts are strong enough to force one : “never again!” would be the putsch’s preferred timetable.
I would imagine sometime next year, although things seem to be moving more quickly than I’d imagined. I was gratified at the numbers on Sunday on the streets in Bangkok. We need to see more such action in every province outside the capital. It’s up to the secular democrats wearing Red shirts to rescue democracy from the Democrats. There will never be another election if its up to the so-called Democrat Party. There could be elections sometime in 2011.
Crispin claims that Abhisit favors a general election, sooner rather than later. An election could benefit Abhisit, strengthening his hand vis-a-vis Gen Prayuth and putting to rest doubts about his legitimacy. Well, Abhisit is the Prime Minister; he can dissolve parliament whenever he chooses. So, what’s stopping him?
Once we have answered that question, we will find that it is not necessary to characterize renewed red protests as “contrived.”
Crispin’s insistence on portraying the political crisis as purely an elite game has the effect of denying that honest, ordinary people might object to being serially disenfranchised. When people stand up to register their objection to a political system in which the military rather than the PM decides when to hold a general election, Crispin dismisses them as dupes. The elite focus allows Crispin to acknowledge the plain fact that Abhisit is not free to call a new election while avoiding the issue of whether or not red protesters have a legitimate point.
There will be no general election until the Establishment is satisfied that they can expect a satisfactory outcome. The Establishment has a variety of resources to ensure such an outcome. They might risk it at the end of next year. More likely, though, they will find it easier to postpone an election than roll back a result they don’t like. If succession comes first, no election until early 2013, soonest.
Once talked to a man from Finland, and I used the reference “Scandinavia” to include the region including Finland. This prompted him to explain to me that mine was a common misconception, but that Finland, in fact, did not belong to Scandinavia.
Yannawa you speak beautifully.
One poster actually said she’s never going to eat Asian food because of this picture. What a retard.
And all this talk of feelings, what about cows and pigs or even fish, don’t they have feelings.
Its like people who eat tuna but are sickened if a dolphin cops it. Its fine to eat a species to the edge of extinction but if makes a few cute noises and likes to have its head stroked then it has to be protected more than humans.
Get a life people, its a dog, if you were brought up in that country you’d eat it and if you were starving you would eat it. Imbeciles.
Considering the fact that the “Elites” are so insecure about the transition. It is unlikely that we will see an election anytime before the King’s passing.
Reds will/has regrouped and we are likely to see a repeat of May 2010, possibly within 2011.
The question is indeed – will we see a new massacre before this date.
Without one i doubt they will try to extend Abhisits time beyond this date – it would leave a very strong political smell. Something that could even turn the rest of the pink shirt middle class against them.
If the King passes away (what i personally hope – the sooner we have to handle the succession the better) then no election will come during the following very very long funeral period (i guess at least one year, maybe two). But this will raise massive protests and a high risk for civial war.
To be honest i think the questions about election is totally irrelevant. The deadlock has to be cleared and will be cleared with blood on the streets. If the result will be french or burmese – nobody knows.
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September 19 – redshirt gatherings
Re. Bangkok Post and The Nation reports of 50,000 pro-government supporters rallying in Udon Thani :
last time I looked the entire population of Udon Thani was barely 100,000.
Hard to believe half of them turned out against Thaksin – in this most-Thaksin loyal city.
Thai elections in 2010, or 2011, or 2012, or 2013, or 2014, or 2015, or 2016, or 2017, or 2018, or ….
2013: the king dies before the 2011 election deadline, elections and politics generally are put on hold for a perhaps unconstitutional but more easily justified one-year mourning, and are then scheduled for another 5-6 months after that.
If he doesn’t die, I bet they don’t have a plan yet.
Millennialist thought: It would be interesting and incredibly heavy if the king, Prem (90 years old) and the supreme patriarch (96) all die in the same year.
Two statements on the fourth anniversary of Thailand’s coup
Andre #9 – yes : I agree there is now considerable student activity, perhaps the beginning of an uprising even.
I’ve been trying to tell people about this on the Web – to almost no avail.
Thai elections in 2010, or 2011, or 2012, or 2013, or 2014, or 2015, or 2016, or 2017, or 2018, or ….
“can the Democrats (and their backers) risk an election at any time before the king passes and the royal succession is resolved?”
What evidence is there that HMK has not ALREADY passed away ?
Resolving the royal succession may be at least a year away AFTER we get the formal announcement of HMK’s passing, and the subsequent year of very genuine national mourning.
No early election, and probably no election at all – except eventually one which favours PAD’s New Politics Party.
Teaching tips – how to keep students engaged
Well – I’ll be burgered!
September 19 – redshirt gatherings
chupong red: 5
Agrarian Revolution? Killing Fields? 4 legs good, 2 legs bad?
Er, no thanks, I’d rather die for a corrupt democrat than a corrupt commisar. (Either way Newin would come up smelling of rose shit)
Shame on those 4 thumbs up too, whoever you are, you’ve been educated to know better.
Thai elections in 2010, or 2011, or 2012, or 2013, or 2014, or 2015, or 2016, or 2017, or 2018, or ….
So the consensus seems to be that the Democrat’s and/or its backers should be (0r are) rooting for someone’s mortality (as opposed to immortality) to expire in late 2011?
Thai elections in 2010, or 2011, or 2012, or 2013, or 2014, or 2015, or 2016, or 2017, or 2018, or ….
I guess the answer is as long as a piece of string. It seems to me unlikely that there will be an election this year. For that to happen there would need to be some clear indication that the “Democrats” and their allies were reasonably sure of winning and the portents currently don’t seem very favourable for them. Even if they thought they could win, they would need to convince Prayuth and his cohorts, who are likely to take a very conservative view of their prospects.
I reckon the best bet is late 2011, but at, say, no more than a 40% chance at best, that is still odds against. Anything after that would mean going beyond the present parliament’s constitutional term and, once that deadline is broken, you will need a crystal ball to predict anything.
As noted in posts above, the wild card in all this is the the succession question . So, all in all there is no date that I’d be prepared to put any money on
Thai elections in 2010, or 2011, or 2012, or 2013, or 2014, or 2015, or 2016, or 2017, or 2018, or ….
Delaying the election is easy prior to term expiration in Dec 2011; Abhisit can claim “progress” and the army can play the stability and reconciliation cards. It’s weak tea, but enough against the proactive call for _early_ elections.
After Dec 2011, the standard for excuse goes way up. Now you’re talking about proactive _delay_ of Constitutionally mandated elections. Based on priors, Abhisit doesn’t look to have the stomach for that kind of totalitarianism. The army/elites/privy council/etc do, but IMHO they’re more pragmatist than posters here think — after all, the “elites” own the largest stake in the economy, which appears to be doing well.
They’re probably hoping succession comes before Dec 2011, which buys them two years while the nation goes bound and gagged in its finest black. But if it doesn’t? Breaking the constitution won’t play well with the moderates, the media, or small parties anxious for the next dealing of cabinet posts. It might not even play well with the Democrats, who may smell a shot at legitimacy. Add to that the 55%+ of the country that already distrusts the army, and you’ve got 1992 all over again, or worse.
The army would have to suspend or ignore their own Constitution, providing the reds with the pretext for another Bangkok take-over, only this time with more support from moderates and ambivalence from the actual ruling party. Playing the “monarchy protection” card was a marginal victory at best in May this year — playing it again from a weaker position next year will reveal its hollowness once and for all. And someone up there must know it.
My half-assed prediction is that they will delay through autumn 2011, but if succession looks too far off the army will let the Democrats roll the dice and hope for a 47%-47% detente with PT. The election lets off steam, and the Parliamentary deadlock buys more time.
That gives them one year to let Korn show some competence, wait for the NPP to go away, shoot down Thaksin’s plane, re-open Zen at Central World, and hope PT self-destructs. All within reach.
Saying the unsayable about Thailand’s monarchy
My four-inch thick Webster’s Unabridged Dictionary of the English Language does not even include the alternative spelling, just lese majesty. Size, in this case, apparently does not matter. As an American, in such cases, I usually have to resort to Oxford’s, but in this case it did not help.
Thai elections in 2010, or 2011, or 2012, or 2013, or 2014, or 2015, or 2016, or 2017, or 2018, or ….
“In reality, Thailand’s democracy has suffered from severe instability since the coup”
Is Crispin a native speaker of English? This phrase is semantically incongruous, perhaps in this “reality” another “better” coup will
bring a more stable democracy.
I suppose some out there will dismiss this article as just another hatchet
job but in Crispin’s reality, Crispins’s Thailand and Crispin’s democracy this stuff can be distributed with impunity. I think “impunity” is a sign that you have really made it in Thailand. Congratulations Shawn
Thai elections in 2010, or 2011, or 2012, or 2013, or 2014, or 2015, or 2016, or 2017, or 2018, or ….
Nich,
I am tilting towards when enough blood has been spilled and international community get off their asses.
Could be any date in next, oh, let’s see, 50years?
And by that I mean Thailand achieving a level of democratic consolidation. Not just some random vote that’s then overthrown by some dodgy court decision, a loony neo-fascist group or the army.
Thai elections in 2010, or 2011, or 2012, or 2013, or 2014, or 2015, or 2016, or 2017, or 2018, or ….
Thanks everyone,
Lots of intriguing discussion here: being read far and wide. I hope the following guesstimate encourages others to weigh in with their own best guesses…
My impression of the evidence, Small Axe, broadly aligns with your thoughts as presented here. And I agree with those who suggest that the timing of the king’s passing is crucial to any such electoral calculations. The idea that “[m]ore likely, though, they will find it easier to postpone an election than roll back a result they don’t like” is one that I find especially persuasive. For that reason I think we are unlikely to see a 2011 poll and even 2012 starts to appear unduly busy; depending on what happens in the meantime.
My best guess? January 2013.
As ever, time will tell…
Best wishes to all,
Nich
Saying the unsayable about Thailand’s monarchy
nobody @ 14:
Their report is probably The Nation’s attempt to achieve the “success” the Bangkok Post had in 1976 with it’s faked photo of Thammasat students “hanging the Crown Prince in effigy”.
Thai elections in 2010, or 2011, or 2012, or 2013, or 2014, or 2015, or 2016, or 2017, or 2018, or ….
I think the recent botched, betrayal of the Red shirts by the PPT “leadership” coupled with the putsch’s foolish imprisonment of the leaders of the Spring 2010 uprising will force the Red shirts to reform from the ground up, and I think that’s good. So I think there will be no election until the Red shirts are strong enough to force one : “never again!” would be the putsch’s preferred timetable.
I would imagine sometime next year, although things seem to be moving more quickly than I’d imagined. I was gratified at the numbers on Sunday on the streets in Bangkok. We need to see more such action in every province outside the capital. It’s up to the secular democrats wearing Red shirts to rescue democracy from the Democrats. There will never be another election if its up to the so-called Democrat Party. There could be elections sometime in 2011.
Thai elections in 2010, or 2011, or 2012, or 2013, or 2014, or 2015, or 2016, or 2017, or 2018, or ….
Crispin claims that Abhisit favors a general election, sooner rather than later. An election could benefit Abhisit, strengthening his hand vis-a-vis Gen Prayuth and putting to rest doubts about his legitimacy. Well, Abhisit is the Prime Minister; he can dissolve parliament whenever he chooses. So, what’s stopping him?
Once we have answered that question, we will find that it is not necessary to characterize renewed red protests as “contrived.”
Crispin’s insistence on portraying the political crisis as purely an elite game has the effect of denying that honest, ordinary people might object to being serially disenfranchised. When people stand up to register their objection to a political system in which the military rather than the PM decides when to hold a general election, Crispin dismisses them as dupes. The elite focus allows Crispin to acknowledge the plain fact that Abhisit is not free to call a new election while avoiding the issue of whether or not red protesters have a legitimate point.
There will be no general election until the Establishment is satisfied that they can expect a satisfactory outcome. The Establishment has a variety of resources to ensure such an outcome. They might risk it at the end of next year. More likely, though, they will find it easier to postpone an election than roll back a result they don’t like. If succession comes first, no election until early 2013, soonest.
What’s your guess, Nich?
Saying the unsayable about Thailand’s monarchy
Once talked to a man from Finland, and I used the reference “Scandinavia” to include the region including Finland. This prompted him to explain to me that mine was a common misconception, but that Finland, in fact, did not belong to Scandinavia.
Lunch?
Yannawa you speak beautifully.
One poster actually said she’s never going to eat Asian food because of this picture. What a retard.
And all this talk of feelings, what about cows and pigs or even fish, don’t they have feelings.
Its like people who eat tuna but are sickened if a dolphin cops it. Its fine to eat a species to the edge of extinction but if makes a few cute noises and likes to have its head stroked then it has to be protected more than humans.
Get a life people, its a dog, if you were brought up in that country you’d eat it and if you were starving you would eat it. Imbeciles.
Thai elections in 2010, or 2011, or 2012, or 2013, or 2014, or 2015, or 2016, or 2017, or 2018, or ….
Considering the fact that the “Elites” are so insecure about the transition. It is unlikely that we will see an election anytime before the King’s passing.
Reds will/has regrouped and we are likely to see a repeat of May 2010, possibly within 2011.
Thai elections in 2010, or 2011, or 2012, or 2013, or 2014, or 2015, or 2016, or 2017, or 2018, or ….
I would guess it will be December 2011.
The question is indeed – will we see a new massacre before this date.
Without one i doubt they will try to extend Abhisits time beyond this date – it would leave a very strong political smell. Something that could even turn the rest of the pink shirt middle class against them.
If the King passes away (what i personally hope – the sooner we have to handle the succession the better) then no election will come during the following very very long funeral period (i guess at least one year, maybe two). But this will raise massive protests and a high risk for civial war.
To be honest i think the questions about election is totally irrelevant. The deadlock has to be cleared and will be cleared with blood on the streets. If the result will be french or burmese – nobody knows.