Today, Aphisit announces, ” I want to have Preah Vihear.” р╕бр╕▓р╕гр╣Мр╕Др╕ер╕▒р╣Ир╕Щр╕нр╕вр╕▓р╕Бр╣Др╕Фр╣Й “р╕Ыр╕гр╕▓р╕кр╕▓р╕Чр╕Юр╕гр╕░р╕зр╕┤р╕лр╕▓р╕г”
He also said, “I will not hesitate to use force when it’s time.” р╕Цр╣Йр╕▓р╕Цр╕╢р╕Зр╣Ар╕зр╕ер╕▓р╕Ьр╕бр╣Др╕бр╣Ир╕ер╕▒р╕Зр╣Ар╕е
At issue is if the war were to happen between Cambodia and Thailand over territorial disputes and Preah Vihear. What should everyone in the Asia Pacific do? Would it escalate to get everyone involve?
During the Cold War, Thailand was afraid of the Soviet Union’s backing for the Indochina countries. Now, in the post-Cold War world context, the network monarchy government (military, monarchy, and Aphisit government) is confident to pursue the “showdown” option with Cambodia because Cambodia has no backing and Thailand’s military force is far superior.
Does the Major Powers countries realize that the escalation of Preah Vihear by Thailand is correlated with the Hegemonic Challenge’s intention. If the strategic planners behind “Preah Vihear” escalation intend to link the territorial conflict to the larger strategic objective in challenging the Hegemon (USA) when the Hegemon is weak. (The U.S. economy is in trouble, its military force is close to over-extended, and its homeland security is in danger.)
It seems to me that analysis of Southeast Asia based only on domestic politics is insufficient to understand the underlying international strategic force. What I am trying to say is that what is going on in Thailand is not a natural phenomenon.
If the phenomena are man-made, we need to know more about PAD, e.g. who are the international actors behind PAD. PAD is playing nationalism as a catalyst for war with Cambodia, and with the support of the military, the monarchy, and Aphisit government. This is serious!
Andrew Walker comment #20. Just interested to know about the provenance of this post, did RA ask to contribute this piece to New Mandala or was he invited directly?
In my opinion the only reason why Abhisit wants to retain the SOE is because he wants to keep CRES going since any budget issued trough CRES (such as money to spend on security personals) is never been screen or check by anyone, not even MPs, so its very easy for the Dem to use CRES as a channel for corruption.
No change in the model NongChang. New Mandala has a longstanding open invitation for guest contributions. We would be delighted to run a guest contribution from the PAD, the government or anyone else.
Personally I think this whole Jakrapob interview is a feint by Thaksin.
His threat to establish a government-in-exile, if there is a coup, remains.
Anupong’s immense skill – plus heavy backing from foreign powers, especially the United States – has SO FAR prevented an outright military coup, thereby circumventing and disabling Thaksin while delivering to the Royalist elite almost everything it wants.
FOUR POINTS need to be made – not mentioned above – about the continuing state of emergency (SOE) in Bangkok, and other provinces :
1) to some extent this hurts the Democrat Party – Thai tourism
has been badly hit by the political turbulence since 2006, and is now facing permanent, terminal decline, according to some of the industry’s leading organizations.
Tourism is a major basis for Democrat Party support, especially in southern Thailand – but also Bangkok.
So Abhisit’s Democrat Party does NOT have an interest per se in extending the SOE.
2) in contradiction to this, the Democrats are threatened by PAD’s New Politics Party – so DO have an interest in extending the SOE, but as yesterday’s PAD rally at the Japan-Thailand Stadium shows – the Democrats/ Anupong military are willing to accomodate PAD as long as they do not attempt an overthrow/ blockage of Abhisit’s government.
The PAD rally of 2000+ supporters was a clear breach of the SOE.
3) So what happens now the Red Shirts have a clear precedent for demanding to stage their own rally in defiance of the SOE ?
4) And how long can Thailand’s clearly very divided military maintain its’ false facade of unity, in the face of such breaches and defiance ?
Stan G, you have my admiration and respect. You are a voice of reason amongst a cacophony of hysterical fanaticism. I can scarcely bear to read New Mandala these days. The conspiracy theories grow ever more convoluted and disturbing, and giving credence to a ‘human rights’ lawyer in the employ of the proud architect of the war on drugs is beyond the pale.
It’s unsurprising that many are calling for you to be silenced. Heretics like you and I will be first against the wall after the glorious people’s revolution.
Terry F: Certainly agree that I’ve heard taxi drivers parrot the things they heard from the Red Shirt stage, etc., sometimes the most outlandish things. But isn’t that in part a consequence of mainstream mass media failing to meet the minimum standards of fairness and credibility? If you want to look at it on your terms, they are rejecting one manufactured consciousness to embrace another.
Thanks Cranshaw for the link to the photoset. At least it might stop this thread from heading too far off on a conspiricy theory tangent (sorry Somsak).
“I put it to you that you are wrong about the feelings of the vast majority of the red shirt sympathisers and, in reality, you just meet and speak with a mere hard-line fringe of the movement who do, perhaps, have a ‘social’ agenda rather than a monetary one (in the sense of money politics). The problem is that, I suspect, you meet and deal with a fringe. You lack the understanding and the empathy of the masses. You come at everything from a western perspective.”
I understand that sitting on the fence must grow painfully uncomfortable after a time–sawng mai ao redivivus– but sitting atop an unimpeachably high horse seems to encourage a questionable sense not only of moral superiority but mystical insight into the feelings of hundreds of thousands of Thai redshirts and sympathisers.
You imply in the above remarks that you not only “know” the feelings of the red majority, but that you are possessed of a superior understanding and empathy [of]sic “the masses”. You then go on to suggest that you are coming at things from a non-western perspective!
I put it to you that your belief that the existence and ubiquity of “money politics” across the Thai spectrum invalidates any and all possibility of real politics in Thailand is the quintessential “western perspective”. And in order for you to begin to understand something of the complexity of the “real” here, you will need to dismount from that white charger and begin to make judgements from a more grounded perspective.
Or perhaps you would care to attempt to convince us that your vast “knowledge” of the feelings and your “understanding and empathy” with the masses are something more than delusions induced by the pain of the fence and the thin atmosphere up there on that high, high horse.
No StanG, his point was that you didn’t hear it from the stage. That is why I responded with a correction based on what I heard. That other parties are capable of implementing policies put in place by other parties when in government is hardly a breathtaking revelation. The real issue to that the political landscape has changed and that the parties that follow cannot but keep these policies in place. Seen everywhere all the time.
I don’t think the point of this piece is to offer concrete evidence – after all the government have certainly been putting out endless completely spurious facts (those weren’t our snipers, in our uniforms, with our weapons, allowed to move freely by our troops who shot all those civilians, honest etc etc) so why can’t the opposition put out a theory or two?
After all, pretty much every Thai I’ve spoken to over the last few weeks believes that forces linked to the establishment are having some hand in the bombings, grenade attacks etc.
And the Strategy of Tension reveals that right wing establishments do this kind of stuff when it suits there needs.
On another note – priceless comment from PAD Boy on StanG – isn’t it time you went and trolled somewhere else now Stan?
Because they are Newin’s people that’s why they get arrest, if they are not Newin’s people they would have been disappear without a trace. Remember the murder of Rambo Issan’s personal body guard and the prominent red leader from Kon Kean?
Btw, its not the Thai side that arrest them, its actually the Cambodian so when you said they wouldn’t have been arrest then you are correct, they didn’t get arrest until they crossed to Cambodia.
Furthermore, the husband and wife who got arrested for BJT used to work for a foundation set up by Newin, so that raise a big question about their connection with Newin.
But then again if they had current connections to Newin surely they wouldn’t have been arrested, at least in any good conspiracy theory Tarrin. I think this one needs more work, maybe Robert can help.
Interesting that lawyer Robert Amsterdam should be posting on New Mandala. Then again Robert Amsterdam is one strange type of lawyer.
So could it be the work of agent provocateurs, or could just some of it be their work? Possibly, but those arrested so far have had pretty strong connections with the red shirts. That doesn’t of course prove the case for every incident.
What’s far more interesting is how much Amsterdam bills Thaksin for this post. Robert would you care to enlighten us as most of us post and comment for free? If anybody would like to pay me for posting could they contact me via New Mandala. I’m sure Andrew or Nich will pass it on to me;-)
Why you letting this guy come and troll on your blog endlessly? To give you an idea what he says about you just picked this up from StanG’s blog –
“I’m not aware of anyone reading my blog right now, you are the first.
I’m not doing it for vanity reasons, I just need a place to put my thoughts down.
When I don’t have any big ones I get by by posting comments on New Mandala or Bangkok Pandit. They are not intellectually stimulating, though, maybe that’s why I couldn’t get enough inspiration from reading those blogs for, like, two months.
The crap they put out there would make…….
It’s better if I stop right now. ”
Why does he post here so often if thinks it’s so crap?
SPDC;
1) Caught with semblance of “nuclear intent”
2) Absolute innuendos of a dictator’s displeasure, who is constantly denigrated in spite of proven knavery,
make a good read.
Before comment on Nicholas Ferrelly “Presentationalism” let me pose this question:
“What is the one common factor repeated in recent history (post WWII) that prompted country to become or try to become Nuclear?”
With Cuba, N. Korea, China , Pakistan and Iran as example.
“Years of useless careless sanctions and propaganda/vilification by USA.
Under various guises during various periods be it anti communism, pro Freedom, Democracy etc.
Please be aware that when USA is mentioned it naturally include now EU and Australia with “silence as consenting partners” in all politics.
Cuba is not nuclear capable neither is Myanmar not yet.
Cuba b/c of Cuba Missile Crisis make Cuba wanting to be such for the same reason.
As for Myanmar if Pakistan as an example and friends like DPRK Nic Ferrelly might like to reconsider his tongue in cheek invitation to comment on present “NO matter what , no good ending, no way out scenario”.
A simple progression to remind New Mandala Readers here to not take out of context thus not to propagate this vicious cycle:
1)Rouge government => 2) Justifiable” rouge treatment” from other self righteous entity=>3) EVen more rouge government.
The result is inducing more suffering to the citizenry under that rogue government .
Any events transpired so far can absolutely be categorized under above 3 elements of the vicious cycle.
Myanmar decision to acquire Nuclear capability is proven historically a garden variety reason to counter an enemy who threaten their existence.
To those skeptic please click my link.
As a throw in for those who refuse to see the better alternative:
Taiwan, S. Korea, the Philippines etc all Asian mind you as examples
Rouge government=>Supported despite their characteristics =>Eventually change or fall of respective government to present better ones.
Not a vicious cycle but a proven guaranteed road map.
USA has spent 3 decades to create a present SPDC.
What would have happened if it treated SPDC from inception to present day with example of the above Asian success in mind?
I guess one will never know.
Commenting on the process of acquiring that capability appearing comical and incredulous:
Then again when Pakistan and DPRK were in that process weren’t they as comical and appear incredulous to the same western democracies that effect it ALL?
Now look at what Pakistan and DPRK is defined by USA.
SPDC is no buffoon.
Trivializing in any way a dictator pursue has been the west mistake.
The good new or rather not so good new is China.
A dictatorship with Nuclear capabilty.
I will let the readers decide which part is good.
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Abhisit’s territorial rite
“р╕Цр╣Йр╕▓р╕Цр╕╢р╕Зр╣Ар╕зр╕ер╕▓р╕Ьр╕бр╣Др╕бр╣Ир╕ер╕▒р╕Зр╣Ар╕е” р╕Ьр╕бр╕Юр╕╣р╕Фр╣Др╕Фр╣Йр╣Ар╕Чр╣Ир╕▓р╕Щр╕╡р╣Й р╣Др╕бр╣Ир╕кр╕▓р╕бр╕▓р╕гр╕Цр╕ер╕Зр╕гр╕▓р╕вр╕ер╕░р╣Ар╕нр╕╡р╕вр╕Фр╣Др╕Фр╣Й
р╕бр╕▓р╕гр╣Мр╕Др╕ер╕▒р╣Ир╕Щр╕нр╕вр╕▓р╕Бр╣Др╕Фр╣Й “р╕Ыр╕гр╕▓р╕кр╕▓р╕Чр╕Юр╕гр╕░р╕зр╕┤р╕лр╕▓р╕г”
Sat, 2010-08-07 14:46 (Prachatai News)
Today, Aphisit announces, ” I want to have Preah Vihear.” р╕бр╕▓р╕гр╣Мр╕Др╕ер╕▒р╣Ир╕Щр╕нр╕вр╕▓р╕Бр╣Др╕Фр╣Й “р╕Ыр╕гр╕▓р╕кр╕▓р╕Чр╕Юр╕гр╕░р╕зр╕┤р╕лр╕▓р╕г”
He also said, “I will not hesitate to use force when it’s time.” р╕Цр╣Йр╕▓р╕Цр╕╢р╕Зр╣Ар╕зр╕ер╕▓р╕Ьр╕бр╣Др╕бр╣Ир╕ер╕▒р╕Зр╣Ар╕е
At issue is if the war were to happen between Cambodia and Thailand over territorial disputes and Preah Vihear. What should everyone in the Asia Pacific do? Would it escalate to get everyone involve?
During the Cold War, Thailand was afraid of the Soviet Union’s backing for the Indochina countries. Now, in the post-Cold War world context, the network monarchy government (military, monarchy, and Aphisit government) is confident to pursue the “showdown” option with Cambodia because Cambodia has no backing and Thailand’s military force is far superior.
Does the Major Powers countries realize that the escalation of Preah Vihear by Thailand is correlated with the Hegemonic Challenge’s intention. If the strategic planners behind “Preah Vihear” escalation intend to link the territorial conflict to the larger strategic objective in challenging the Hegemon (USA) when the Hegemon is weak. (The U.S. economy is in trouble, its military force is close to over-extended, and its homeland security is in danger.)
It seems to me that analysis of Southeast Asia based only on domestic politics is insufficient to understand the underlying international strategic force. What I am trying to say is that what is going on in Thailand is not a natural phenomenon.
If the phenomena are man-made, we need to know more about PAD, e.g. who are the international actors behind PAD. PAD is playing nationalism as a catalyst for war with Cambodia, and with the support of the military, the monarchy, and Aphisit government. This is serious!
Robert Amsterdam on a “Strategy of Tension” in Bangkok
Andrew Walker comment #20. Just interested to know about the provenance of this post, did RA ask to contribute this piece to New Mandala or was he invited directly?
Abhisit’s territorial rite
“uneducate people” 😉
Robert Amsterdam on a “Strategy of Tension” in Bangkok
Chris beale – 18
In my opinion the only reason why Abhisit wants to retain the SOE is because he wants to keep CRES going since any budget issued trough CRES (such as money to spend on security personals) is never been screen or check by anyone, not even MPs, so its very easy for the Dem to use CRES as a channel for corruption.
Robert Amsterdam on a “Strategy of Tension” in Bangkok
No change in the model NongChang. New Mandala has a longstanding open invitation for guest contributions. We would be delighted to run a guest contribution from the PAD, the government or anyone else.
Robert Amsterdam on a “Strategy of Tension” in Bangkok
Is New Mandala changing to an ad-based model? When can we expect Thaksin’s companies advertising here?
ABC Interview with Jakrapob
Personally I think this whole Jakrapob interview is a feint by Thaksin.
His threat to establish a government-in-exile, if there is a coup, remains.
Anupong’s immense skill – plus heavy backing from foreign powers, especially the United States – has SO FAR prevented an outright military coup, thereby circumventing and disabling Thaksin while delivering to the Royalist elite almost everything it wants.
Robert Amsterdam on a “Strategy of Tension” in Bangkok
FOUR POINTS need to be made – not mentioned above – about the continuing state of emergency (SOE) in Bangkok, and other provinces :
1) to some extent this hurts the Democrat Party – Thai tourism
has been badly hit by the political turbulence since 2006, and is now facing permanent, terminal decline, according to some of the industry’s leading organizations.
Tourism is a major basis for Democrat Party support, especially in southern Thailand – but also Bangkok.
So Abhisit’s Democrat Party does NOT have an interest per se in extending the SOE.
2) in contradiction to this, the Democrats are threatened by PAD’s New Politics Party – so DO have an interest in extending the SOE, but as yesterday’s PAD rally at the Japan-Thailand Stadium shows – the Democrats/ Anupong military are willing to accomodate PAD as long as they do not attempt an overthrow/ blockage of Abhisit’s government.
The PAD rally of 2000+ supporters was a clear breach of the SOE.
3) So what happens now the Red Shirts have a clear precedent for demanding to stage their own rally in defiance of the SOE ?
4) And how long can Thailand’s clearly very divided military maintain its’ false facade of unity, in the face of such breaches and defiance ?
Robert Amsterdam on a “Strategy of Tension” in Bangkok
Stan G, you have my admiration and respect. You are a voice of reason amongst a cacophony of hysterical fanaticism. I can scarcely bear to read New Mandala these days. The conspiracy theories grow ever more convoluted and disturbing, and giving credence to a ‘human rights’ lawyer in the employ of the proud architect of the war on drugs is beyond the pale.
It’s unsurprising that many are calling for you to be silenced. Heretics like you and I will be first against the wall after the glorious people’s revolution.
Andrew Marshall on politics and education
Terry F: Certainly agree that I’ve heard taxi drivers parrot the things they heard from the Red Shirt stage, etc., sometimes the most outlandish things. But isn’t that in part a consequence of mainstream mass media failing to meet the minimum standards of fairness and credibility? If you want to look at it on your terms, they are rejecting one manufactured consciousness to embrace another.
Letter from Sirikit to Napas Na Pombejra about CNN?
Thanks Cranshaw for the link to the photoset. At least it might stop this thread from heading too far off on a conspiricy theory tangent (sorry Somsak).
Letter from Sirikit to Napas Na Pombejra about CNN?
Cranshaw @#32 :
thanks for setting us straight on this.
You’re correct – the site you direct us to does clear this matter up.
ABC Interview with Jakrapob
goo_stewart #16
“I put it to you that you are wrong about the feelings of the vast majority of the red shirt sympathisers and, in reality, you just meet and speak with a mere hard-line fringe of the movement who do, perhaps, have a ‘social’ agenda rather than a monetary one (in the sense of money politics). The problem is that, I suspect, you meet and deal with a fringe. You lack the understanding and the empathy of the masses. You come at everything from a western perspective.”
I understand that sitting on the fence must grow painfully uncomfortable after a time–sawng mai ao redivivus– but sitting atop an unimpeachably high horse seems to encourage a questionable sense not only of moral superiority but mystical insight into the feelings of hundreds of thousands of Thai redshirts and sympathisers.
You imply in the above remarks that you not only “know” the feelings of the red majority, but that you are possessed of a superior understanding and empathy [of]sic “the masses”. You then go on to suggest that you are coming at things from a non-western perspective!
I put it to you that your belief that the existence and ubiquity of “money politics” across the Thai spectrum invalidates any and all possibility of real politics in Thailand is the quintessential “western perspective”. And in order for you to begin to understand something of the complexity of the “real” here, you will need to dismount from that white charger and begin to make judgements from a more grounded perspective.
Or perhaps you would care to attempt to convince us that your vast “knowledge” of the feelings and your “understanding and empathy” with the masses are something more than delusions induced by the pain of the fence and the thin atmosphere up there on that high, high horse.
Andrew Marshall on politics and education
No StanG, his point was that you didn’t hear it from the stage. That is why I responded with a correction based on what I heard. That other parties are capable of implementing policies put in place by other parties when in government is hardly a breathtaking revelation. The real issue to that the political landscape has changed and that the parties that follow cannot but keep these policies in place. Seen everywhere all the time.
Robert Amsterdam on a “Strategy of Tension” in Bangkok
LesAbbey
I don’t think the point of this piece is to offer concrete evidence – after all the government have certainly been putting out endless completely spurious facts (those weren’t our snipers, in our uniforms, with our weapons, allowed to move freely by our troops who shot all those civilians, honest etc etc) so why can’t the opposition put out a theory or two?
After all, pretty much every Thai I’ve spoken to over the last few weeks believes that forces linked to the establishment are having some hand in the bombings, grenade attacks etc.
And the Strategy of Tension reveals that right wing establishments do this kind of stuff when it suits there needs.
On another note – priceless comment from PAD Boy on StanG – isn’t it time you went and trolled somewhere else now Stan?
Robert Amsterdam on a “Strategy of Tension” in Bangkok
LesAbbey – 14
Because they are Newin’s people that’s why they get arrest, if they are not Newin’s people they would have been disappear without a trace. Remember the murder of Rambo Issan’s personal body guard and the prominent red leader from Kon Kean?
Btw, its not the Thai side that arrest them, its actually the Cambodian so when you said they wouldn’t have been arrest then you are correct, they didn’t get arrest until they crossed to Cambodia.
Robert Amsterdam on a “Strategy of Tension” in Bangkok
Tarrin – 4
Furthermore, the husband and wife who got arrested for BJT used to work for a foundation set up by Newin, so that raise a big question about their connection with Newin.
But then again if they had current connections to Newin surely they wouldn’t have been arrested, at least in any good conspiracy theory Tarrin. I think this one needs more work, maybe Robert can help.
Robert Amsterdam on a “Strategy of Tension” in Bangkok
Interesting that lawyer Robert Amsterdam should be posting on New Mandala. Then again Robert Amsterdam is one strange type of lawyer.
So could it be the work of agent provocateurs, or could just some of it be their work? Possibly, but those arrested so far have had pretty strong connections with the red shirts. That doesn’t of course prove the case for every incident.
What’s far more interesting is how much Amsterdam bills Thaksin for this post. Robert would you care to enlighten us as most of us post and comment for free? If anybody would like to pay me for posting could they contact me via New Mandala. I’m sure Andrew or Nich will pass it on to me;-)
Robert Amsterdam on a “Strategy of Tension” in Bangkok
Andrew/Nich
Why you letting this guy come and troll on your blog endlessly? To give you an idea what he says about you just picked this up from StanG’s blog –
“I’m not aware of anyone reading my blog right now, you are the first.
I’m not doing it for vanity reasons, I just need a place to put my thoughts down.
When I don’t have any big ones I get by by posting comments on New Mandala or Bangkok Pandit. They are not intellectually stimulating, though, maybe that’s why I couldn’t get enough inspiration from reading those blogs for, like, two months.
The crap they put out there would make…….
It’s better if I stop right now. ”
Why does he post here so often if thinks it’s so crap?
Presentationalism and Burma’s nuclear program
SPDC;
1) Caught with semblance of “nuclear intent”
2) Absolute innuendos of a dictator’s displeasure, who is constantly denigrated in spite of proven knavery,
make a good read.
Before comment on Nicholas Ferrelly “Presentationalism” let me pose this question:
“What is the one common factor repeated in recent history (post WWII) that prompted country to become or try to become Nuclear?”
With Cuba, N. Korea, China , Pakistan and Iran as example.
“Years of useless careless sanctions and propaganda/vilification by USA.
Under various guises during various periods be it anti communism, pro Freedom, Democracy etc.
Please be aware that when USA is mentioned it naturally include now EU and Australia with “silence as consenting partners” in all politics.
Cuba is not nuclear capable neither is Myanmar not yet.
Cuba b/c of Cuba Missile Crisis make Cuba wanting to be such for the same reason.
As for Myanmar if Pakistan as an example and friends like DPRK Nic Ferrelly might like to reconsider his tongue in cheek invitation to comment on present “NO matter what , no good ending, no way out scenario”.
A simple progression to remind New Mandala Readers here to not take out of context thus not to propagate this vicious cycle:
1)Rouge government => 2) Justifiable” rouge treatment” from other self righteous entity=>3) EVen more rouge government.
The result is inducing more suffering to the citizenry under that rogue government .
Any events transpired so far can absolutely be categorized under above 3 elements of the vicious cycle.
Myanmar decision to acquire Nuclear capability is proven historically a garden variety reason to counter an enemy who threaten their existence.
To those skeptic please click my link.
As a throw in for those who refuse to see the better alternative:
Taiwan, S. Korea, the Philippines etc all Asian mind you as examples
Rouge government=>Supported despite their characteristics =>Eventually change or fall of respective government to present better ones.
Not a vicious cycle but a proven guaranteed road map.
USA has spent 3 decades to create a present SPDC.
What would have happened if it treated SPDC from inception to present day with example of the above Asian success in mind?
I guess one will never know.
Commenting on the process of acquiring that capability appearing comical and incredulous:
Then again when Pakistan and DPRK were in that process weren’t they as comical and appear incredulous to the same western democracies that effect it ALL?
Now look at what Pakistan and DPRK is defined by USA.
SPDC is no buffoon.
Trivializing in any way a dictator pursue has been the west mistake.
The good new or rather not so good new is China.
A dictatorship with Nuclear capabilty.
I will let the readers decide which part is good.