Andrew:
LOL good use of economics 🙂 and yet so true in the dark humour sense.
Yeah, elections were Thailand’s main source of income redistribution since the start of constitutional monarchy, which was a real step up since absolute monarchy (think how bad things were before that, just like most feudal societies)
—
Wern D:
If you were wondering where that figure B150bn comes from?
Well, a portion of that wealth is slated to be “confiscated” into state coffers, and later quietly re-distributed amongst the “heroes” of the crisis in the form of over-bloated public projects (watch education). A value to be re-distributed was tabulated by the winning side, and is based on grievances of past income (aka corruption income from state projects from our perspective) forgone as a result of TRT (aka Taksin) being in power and missing out on various projects from 2001 to 2006. This fantasy figure of expected income forgone was then padded to a big enough figure made ready for payment extraction. Cutting edge ( Our terminology would be: twisting accounting rules to the edge of legality) accounting techniques and double/triple entries is then used to up the appearance of money flow of various targeted accounts.
I am not kidding about the income forgone grievance. There really are people who considered various state projects their “right” and will patiently wait their turn for their party to be in power. Sometimes, sitting listening to those “families” social chatting can be, say, charmingly sickening.
I still could not get over those casual callous comments and statements calling for the deaths of the protesting northern farmers made over ice spiced tea and a selection of Thai sweets out of my mind. I am still very disturbed and upset – and this is from one very familiar with the Hi-So of BKK and their mindset.
Sometimes, I read articles written by those who posted with their real names – I feel lots of respect for them. I wished I had their guts. I do not. Perhaps one day I will have the guts to – when I no longer have family that I have to worry about in BKK.
Perhaps JohnH might be amused to know, the anger over the sniping is finally getting through after weeks of trying to keep cool and just stick to perspectives.
Interesting graphs and interview with Prof Thongchai!
AW:
First obvious question, what is the source of the data? Could the data reflects essentially the budget of the Min. of Agriculture and Coop?
If that’s the case, then you must take into account the fact that the MOAC includes institutions and spendings which are not directly related to agricultural support. Two institutions comes to mind, namely the RFD-DNP and the Royal Irrigation Dept. In the first case, during Thaksin’s time the RFD was transfered out of the MOAC and to MNRE. This could bias somewhat the results as the RFD had a budget of about 9 billion bath or approx 12 % of the MOAC’S budget at the end of the 1990s. In the second case, I believe the last large-scale dam was built under the Dem government (Pasak Cholasit). Could the cessation of large-scale projects by the RID and their replacement by numerous small or medium scale ones affect the trend in spending?
Anyways, great graph and as I said, I’d really like to know where the data comes from. I had some trouble compiling this sort of data.
[Thanks J-P: Useful points. I’ll provide some information about the data sources etc when I am back in the office on Monday. AW]
I think the accusation is ridiculous and weakly substantiated. It adds to the arrogant image of the government in its handling of this ongoing political crisis, despite the reconciliation rhetoric. How can they expect the red-shirts and their supporters to drop their grievances if they continue not only to deny any responsibilities of the killing of civilians in the April and May clashes, but also to go on letting their own people and agencies (e.g. the DSI ) carry out biased investigations and treatments of those involved in the red-shirt protest?
How can the pro-establishment deny double standards when all these scrutinies (by the current government, judiciary, military, and most local media alike) have never been exercised on the PAD nor the Democrat party? To me, Abhisit’s call for reconciliation is as hollow as his earlier promise for a general election.
May the dung on my shoes bless the accountants of the Thai Ethnocracy ( Bangkok Elite) for such incompetence.
If Pridi or Phibun had been in a state of suspended animation and since just after the 1932 coup and were re-awoken , would they think they were in an Idiocracy?
Thongchai was very interesting but I do wonder who is or would be the more Marcos-like, Abhisit or Thaksin?
Andrew regarding Thaksin’s popularity in the Northeast while at the same time seeing a lower agricultural budget, could it be explained with the one million Baht village fund? It put village headmen into his pocket and the results we can see today.
It may be, of course, that the DSI thought that by padding out the figures in this way, they could make their case look compelling. As it is it just looks daft.
Actually the Baht 150 billion DSI estimate may not be too far off. Take the figure of Baht 100 million Nattawut was quoted as “touching” . . . his pay-off from Thaksin to lead the Reds rebellion. How many Red leaders were there being paid at or about Baht 100 million each. And those hundreds ‘Ronins clad-in-black’ will receive top pay too because they were the ‘enforcers’ and ‘fighters’ in Thaksin’s civil war.
To spend billions , out of spite, to foment a Thai civil war wass stupid. But doing very stupid very expensive anti-social things was in character for Thaksin. He believes himself King Taksin the reincarnate, and, who knows what other self-delusion King Taksin of Montenegro suffers?
Yes, the figure is quite stupid. Looking at the figures published in the Bangkok Post, the list includes every bank transactions over a nine month period of a number of public companies that the Department of Special Investigation suspects of supporting the UDD. These figures will have included salary payments, regular purchases, taxation and all manner of regular and legitimate business payments and receipts. Altogether these amount to some 120 billion of the 150 billion claimed by the DSI.
Most of the balance appears to have been withdrawals by members of the Shinawatra family, presumably anxious to get as much of their money as possible out of the country. The figures have obviously been put together by an economic illiterate with no knowledge of how businesses operate.
A Nobel Prize, not for promoting peace, but fomenting a civil war would be a first Andrew Walker. Will you Andrew Walkaer be formally submitting Thaksin’s name to the Nobel selection board.
Well, how to start…firstly, how surprising the 2 most loathed forces in the kingdom are the biggest supporters of the reds – The police & The Army.
So, “The peoples army” will topple the current regime of elites and NOT install new elites, what a load of crap…just more Red propaganda.
How ironic they use Napoleans’s name, the man who wanted to install himself Pope and ruler of The Holy Roman Empire.
The Thai armed forces support the reds and Thaksin because he paid them better, treated them better and had no competition or other propaganda while he did it. If the leader Seh Daeng did not know what Democracy was, how could the lowly ranked soldiers comprehend this Western Political thinking, when they barely know English.
IMO, this interview is another piece of Red propaganda with intent to “rally the troops’ that has little substance relating to the majority of Thai’s supporting this movement and willing to give up their lives for it. Outside Isaan and the North, I find this very hard to believe.
I have heard all kinds of rumours from both colours, on revolutions, coups, counter-coups involving people from both sides betraying their colours. At the end of the day, there are many powerful groups who want their piece of the pie and are willing to do whatever it takes to get there, even using the Yellows & Reds as pawns. The endgame and ultimate trophy is going to be open soon.
Why are we graynjaiing a person who was prepared to resort to terrorism for his own sake? I don’t really care what horrible people he annoyed, since he was truly obnoxious and overbearing in his own right. If they killed him, as I strongly suspect, we can just label him another victim of the machiavellian elite and their lackies. We could also label him a victim of his own folly and insanity. I know one person who liked him, and that person is another military man who believes it is OK to lob grenades in an area where there are innocent bystanders. All the other folks around here despise him and his local supporter, since they are used to bullies in uniforms.
Some people loved him him, but he was also widely reviled.
From reading the record, I still think that Sae Dang is a hard-line royalist. I think Sae Dang himself doesn’t know who he is fighting with, and that has cost his life. Poor guy, I never like him, but I think he has changed enough during the course of the year that I start to respect him.
Army Major General Khattiya Sawasdiphol is loved among grassroots Thai people across the country. He wins the hearts and minds of the majority of the Thai Army soldiers especially the enlisted soldiers. Sae Daeng is a straight forward outspoken person. He is intelligent, kind, patriotic and brave. He speaks his mind and acts like a real man in the fashion of gentlemen agreement. He is darling to so many many people. They are extremely angry, profoundly shocked and deeply sad…
This interview correctly reflects his personality. Among the fun loving joking style of his character, his serious side reflects philosophical insights with sincere intention and devotion to the country’s progress. He’s known throughout the country; every where he went people wanted to take picture with him. Coming from a modest Army soldier family (his father also an Army soldier), Sae Daeng was able to relate well with ordinary people. If the election were held now, Sae Daeng would win with in any political contest with a landslide.
Sae Daeng’s character is just the opposite to the opportunistic and calculative characteristics of Army Chief, Anupong Paochinda, deputy Army Chief Prayut Chan-Ocha and Prime Minister Aphisit. Anupong, Prayut and Aphisit are calculative and opportunistic. They know the Queen in alliance with the Crown Prince are the de facto power who control the military so they loyal to them. Sae Daeng’s miscalculation of this factor had cost his life.
In 1976, Dr. Puey was set up.
In 2010, Sae Daeng was set up!
If ignorance of history makes one more likely to repeat it, as the saying goes, then the stakes of historical knowledge are at their highest when involving military power.
“I read somewhere that the DSI estimated that Baht 150 billion was withdrawn by Thaksin and Thaksin allies during the above period.”
So, you apparently believe that the protests cost 150 billion baht, right? How much do you think cost the protestd per day–70 days–to how much would this add up (look at the tentative calculation by Ajarn Somsak somewhere elese on New Mandala)? And people did not have any other reasons for withdawing money during this period, right? In that case, you are in good company with the Bangkok Post that unethically headlined its lead article “Rally billions uncovered.”
Whatever happened to reason, professionalism, and ethics these days? Would they not be good ingredients for the democratic reconstruction of Thailand? Or has democracy already become a thing of the past?
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Thaksin’s greatest reform ever!
Andrew:
LOL good use of economics 🙂 and yet so true in the dark humour sense.
Yeah, elections were Thailand’s main source of income redistribution since the start of constitutional monarchy, which was a real step up since absolute monarchy (think how bad things were before that, just like most feudal societies)
—
Wern D:
If you were wondering where that figure B150bn comes from?
Well, a portion of that wealth is slated to be “confiscated” into state coffers, and later quietly re-distributed amongst the “heroes” of the crisis in the form of over-bloated public projects (watch education). A value to be re-distributed was tabulated by the winning side, and is based on grievances of past income (aka corruption income from state projects from our perspective) forgone as a result of TRT (aka Taksin) being in power and missing out on various projects from 2001 to 2006. This fantasy figure of expected income forgone was then padded to a big enough figure made ready for payment extraction. Cutting edge ( Our terminology would be: twisting accounting rules to the edge of legality) accounting techniques and double/triple entries is then used to up the appearance of money flow of various targeted accounts.
I am not kidding about the income forgone grievance. There really are people who considered various state projects their “right” and will patiently wait their turn for their party to be in power. Sometimes, sitting listening to those “families” social chatting can be, say, charmingly sickening.
I still could not get over those casual callous comments and statements calling for the deaths of the protesting northern farmers made over ice spiced tea and a selection of Thai sweets out of my mind. I am still very disturbed and upset – and this is from one very familiar with the Hi-So of BKK and their mindset.
Sometimes, I read articles written by those who posted with their real names – I feel lots of respect for them. I wished I had their guts. I do not. Perhaps one day I will have the guts to – when I no longer have family that I have to worry about in BKK.
Perhaps JohnH might be amused to know, the anger over the sniping is finally getting through after weeks of trying to keep cool and just stick to perspectives.
Thailand in crisis: Episode 4
Interesting graphs and interview with Prof Thongchai!
AW:
First obvious question, what is the source of the data? Could the data reflects essentially the budget of the Min. of Agriculture and Coop?
If that’s the case, then you must take into account the fact that the MOAC includes institutions and spendings which are not directly related to agricultural support. Two institutions comes to mind, namely the RFD-DNP and the Royal Irrigation Dept. In the first case, during Thaksin’s time the RFD was transfered out of the MOAC and to MNRE. This could bias somewhat the results as the RFD had a budget of about 9 billion bath or approx 12 % of the MOAC’S budget at the end of the 1990s. In the second case, I believe the last large-scale dam was built under the Dem government (Pasak Cholasit). Could the cessation of large-scale projects by the RID and their replacement by numerous small or medium scale ones affect the trend in spending?
Anyways, great graph and as I said, I’d really like to know where the data comes from. I had some trouble compiling this sort of data.
[Thanks J-P: Useful points. I’ll provide some information about the data sources etc when I am back in the office on Monday. AW]
Translation of interview with Sae Daeng
Seh Daeng, you are missed. R.I.P.
Thaksin’s greatest reform ever!
I think the accusation is ridiculous and weakly substantiated. It adds to the arrogant image of the government in its handling of this ongoing political crisis, despite the reconciliation rhetoric. How can they expect the red-shirts and their supporters to drop their grievances if they continue not only to deny any responsibilities of the killing of civilians in the April and May clashes, but also to go on letting their own people and agencies (e.g. the DSI ) carry out biased investigations and treatments of those involved in the red-shirt protest?
How can the pro-establishment deny double standards when all these scrutinies (by the current government, judiciary, military, and most local media alike) have never been exercised on the PAD nor the Democrat party? To me, Abhisit’s call for reconciliation is as hollow as his earlier promise for a general election.
Thaksin’s greatest reform ever!
May the dung on my shoes bless the accountants of the Thai Ethnocracy ( Bangkok Elite) for such incompetence.
If Pridi or Phibun had been in a state of suspended animation and since just after the 1932 coup and were re-awoken , would they think they were in an Idiocracy?
Thaksin’s greatest reform ever!
Mind you Andrew a certain UDD leader has suddenly found himself 10 million Baht richer. He must have 2.5 million of someone else’s money I guess.
Thailand in crisis: Episode 4
Thongchai was very interesting but I do wonder who is or would be the more Marcos-like, Abhisit or Thaksin?
Andrew regarding Thaksin’s popularity in the Northeast while at the same time seeing a lower agricultural budget, could it be explained with the one million Baht village fund? It put village headmen into his pocket and the results we can see today.
Chula academics call for “return of justice and academic freedom”
JFL #25 – thank you SO MUCH for that url. I agree with Steve #27. Indeed there are several very good essays on this site.
Thaksin’s greatest reform ever!
Del (or should I say Ozorro, Vichai, Jeru, et al) – I was thinking of economics rather than peace.
Thaksin’s greatest reform ever!
It may be, of course, that the DSI thought that by padding out the figures in this way, they could make their case look compelling. As it is it just looks daft.
Thitinan on Thailand’s “Dead-End”
Actually the Baht 150 billion DSI estimate may not be too far off. Take the figure of Baht 100 million Nattawut was quoted as “touching” . . . his pay-off from Thaksin to lead the Reds rebellion. How many Red leaders were there being paid at or about Baht 100 million each. And those hundreds ‘Ronins clad-in-black’ will receive top pay too because they were the ‘enforcers’ and ‘fighters’ in Thaksin’s civil war.
To spend billions , out of spite, to foment a Thai civil war wass stupid. But doing very stupid very expensive anti-social things was in character for Thaksin. He believes himself King Taksin the reincarnate, and, who knows what other self-delusion King Taksin of Montenegro suffers?
Thaksin’s greatest reform ever!
Yes, the figure is quite stupid. Looking at the figures published in the Bangkok Post, the list includes every bank transactions over a nine month period of a number of public companies that the Department of Special Investigation suspects of supporting the UDD. These figures will have included salary payments, regular purchases, taxation and all manner of regular and legitimate business payments and receipts. Altogether these amount to some 120 billion of the 150 billion claimed by the DSI.
Most of the balance appears to have been withdrawals by members of the Shinawatra family, presumably anxious to get as much of their money as possible out of the country. The figures have obviously been put together by an economic illiterate with no knowledge of how businesses operate.
Thaksin’s greatest reform ever!
A Nobel Prize, not for promoting peace, but fomenting a civil war would be a first Andrew Walker. Will you Andrew Walkaer be formally submitting Thaksin’s name to the Nobel selection board.
Translation of interview with Sae Daeng
Well, how to start…firstly, how surprising the 2 most loathed forces in the kingdom are the biggest supporters of the reds – The police & The Army.
So, “The peoples army” will topple the current regime of elites and NOT install new elites, what a load of crap…just more Red propaganda.
How ironic they use Napoleans’s name, the man who wanted to install himself Pope and ruler of The Holy Roman Empire.
The Thai armed forces support the reds and Thaksin because he paid them better, treated them better and had no competition or other propaganda while he did it. If the leader Seh Daeng did not know what Democracy was, how could the lowly ranked soldiers comprehend this Western Political thinking, when they barely know English.
IMO, this interview is another piece of Red propaganda with intent to “rally the troops’ that has little substance relating to the majority of Thai’s supporting this movement and willing to give up their lives for it. Outside Isaan and the North, I find this very hard to believe.
I have heard all kinds of rumours from both colours, on revolutions, coups, counter-coups involving people from both sides betraying their colours. At the end of the day, there are many powerful groups who want their piece of the pie and are willing to do whatever it takes to get there, even using the Yellows & Reds as pawns. The endgame and ultimate trophy is going to be open soon.
Prachatipatai, yeah right!
Thaksin’s greatest reform ever!
haha, wonder where he got that much money. Thought he only had 40bil of his own left
Translation of interview with Sae Daeng
Sae Daeng set himself up by being a loose cannon. Don’t associate this thug with the name of a committed person like Doctor Puey.
Translation of interview with Sae Daeng
Why are we graynjaiing a person who was prepared to resort to terrorism for his own sake? I don’t really care what horrible people he annoyed, since he was truly obnoxious and overbearing in his own right. If they killed him, as I strongly suspect, we can just label him another victim of the machiavellian elite and their lackies. We could also label him a victim of his own folly and insanity. I know one person who liked him, and that person is another military man who believes it is OK to lob grenades in an area where there are innocent bystanders. All the other folks around here despise him and his local supporter, since they are used to bullies in uniforms.
Some people loved him him, but he was also widely reviled.
Translation of interview with Sae Daeng
From reading the record, I still think that Sae Dang is a hard-line royalist. I think Sae Dang himself doesn’t know who he is fighting with, and that has cost his life. Poor guy, I never like him, but I think he has changed enough during the course of the year that I start to respect him.
Translation of interview with Sae Daeng
Army Major General Khattiya Sawasdiphol is loved among grassroots Thai people across the country. He wins the hearts and minds of the majority of the Thai Army soldiers especially the enlisted soldiers. Sae Daeng is a straight forward outspoken person. He is intelligent, kind, patriotic and brave. He speaks his mind and acts like a real man in the fashion of gentlemen agreement. He is darling to so many many people. They are extremely angry, profoundly shocked and deeply sad…
This interview correctly reflects his personality. Among the fun loving joking style of his character, his serious side reflects philosophical insights with sincere intention and devotion to the country’s progress. He’s known throughout the country; every where he went people wanted to take picture with him. Coming from a modest Army soldier family (his father also an Army soldier), Sae Daeng was able to relate well with ordinary people. If the election were held now, Sae Daeng would win with in any political contest with a landslide.
Sae Daeng’s character is just the opposite to the opportunistic and calculative characteristics of Army Chief, Anupong Paochinda, deputy Army Chief Prayut Chan-Ocha and Prime Minister Aphisit. Anupong, Prayut and Aphisit are calculative and opportunistic. They know the Queen in alliance with the Crown Prince are the de facto power who control the military so they loyal to them. Sae Daeng’s miscalculation of this factor had cost his life.
In 1976, Dr. Puey was set up.
In 2010, Sae Daeng was set up!
If ignorance of history makes one more likely to repeat it, as the saying goes, then the stakes of historical knowledge are at their highest when involving military power.
Thitinan on Thailand’s “Dead-End”
Del #10
“I read somewhere that the DSI estimated that Baht 150 billion was withdrawn by Thaksin and Thaksin allies during the above period.”
So, you apparently believe that the protests cost 150 billion baht, right? How much do you think cost the protestd per day–70 days–to how much would this add up (look at the tentative calculation by Ajarn Somsak somewhere elese on New Mandala)? And people did not have any other reasons for withdawing money during this period, right? In that case, you are in good company with the Bangkok Post that unethically headlined its lead article “Rally billions uncovered.”
Whatever happened to reason, professionalism, and ethics these days? Would they not be good ingredients for the democratic reconstruction of Thailand? Or has democracy already become a thing of the past?