Patiwat, are you saying the evidence of corruption produced by those three investigators was false and that the judges therefore made a fraudulent ruling or that you object to identities of the people who collected accurate evidence of corruption?
“I wonder if the Ozzie social science teachers like Jim Taylor et al would be so enthusiastic about having a crook like Thaksin as PM of Australia.” >> How about trying to analyze the Thaksin phenomenon within the Thai context?
The BP (and its Thai language sister, Post Today) of Monday contains a picture page of the protests, but “strangely” does not print any total perspective that might enable readers to see that there was any “mass” of people. All pics concern details.
It’s a pity that this is all about restoring ill gotten gains to a megalomaniac politician rightfully convicted of corruption with not a shred of political manifesto from the reds. I wonder if the Ozzie social science teachers like Jim Taylor et al would be so enthusiastic about having a crook like Thaksin as PM of Australia.
David Brown – perhaps the most difficult thing of all, for Thai-observers, is to sift through the ever so-many rumours.
Personally – though I never discount them completely – I don’t place much weight on them : unless there are sufficient other reasons to start giving them weight. Eg. The Queen and the CP – we can not assume they necessarily agree. Poison ? I doubt it.
I never said that Thaksin or the red leaders would get Thailand over the line, or that their rule was preferable to what has been going on. It might well be the same pyramid with a new cap, and less accountability. I was responding to Werner’s assertion that the reds were completely undeserving of sympathy, that they were brainwashed, and the suggestion that Thaksin was the worst of the worst — the last statement appearing to parrot the PAD line that Thaksin was “the most corrupt leader in Thai history.” He most certainly was not, unless you consider “upsetting other people’s corruption systems” to be a greater crime than just having your own.
The hypothesis that the reds believe Thaksin is the best option is not technically provable, but observable and intuitive. He’s the first leader to include the voting poor as a player in a power-grabbing scheme (populist democracy) whereas prior leaders either seized power by arms or maintained it with coalition deals that kept the rural voters sidelined into small regional parties. The current conflict is about whether to allow rural voters become significant players along with the usual elites, gentry, business tycoons, and generals. I have no idea whether it’s a good idea, but I certainly see how they, once awakened to the possibility, would not settle for anything less.
One need not be pro-Thaksin to be against provocative, hyperbolic, and perjorative rhetoric.
Actually I agree with the post, I felt that the red demand is too soft and to some extend, wouldnt really lead the what they really want. The parliamentary dissolution wouldnt solve anything, they have to ask for the changing of power than all the shady laws that been hidden in Thailand’s civil law.
the only problem reported from the front line are the planting of agent provocateurs by the state/army and Newin’s henchmen to cause violence which would give the excuse for the military/state to act with full force – which is what they would like to do. A group of yellow hardcore dressed in red have already been identified at two sites and the police called in…
I think all freedom loving folk who deplore resurgent Thai neofascism must be pleased with the turnout of the reds at this (real) time…It is a pity the media, as an instrumentality of the state, has likewise vested interest in the current status quo and will not report with objectivity of anything resembling truth.
Kishen – there’s always very tight security around the Royal Family, when Thailand habitually goes through these sorts of crises.
It’s nothing to get terribly worked up about.
Most Red-Shirts simply want the Royals to stay out of party politics – not their overthrow. Thaksin certainly does not want that.
Kishen – an excellent post and analysis : I’d like to congratulate you on your brilliance.
Just a couple of points :
1) Abhisit’s power seems to be rapidly collapsing – you correctly state it took months, and months, for the PAD to oust Samak, than Wongsawat.
It was a long time before the PAD was able to force their governments (from memory it may only have been Wongsawat’s) to set up offices at Don Muang.
In contrast, Abhisit has sought refuge at the 11th Regiment’s compound, even before the protests gained anything like massive momentum.
And holed up there, he’s now beholden to – among others the Third Army – which has many Thaksin sympathisers among its’ ranks at officer level, and totally at foot-soldier level.
2) the Royal Family : Thaksin needs them to confer legitimacy on his (what I see as now inevitable) victory.
Whatever splits within there may be – they will present a united face.
HRH The Crown Prince will be the winner : as far as I can see, HRH has long been trying to broker a peace between pro and anti-Thaksin forces, and thereby save the kingdom.
I was at Phan Fa bridge on Sunday at the same time as Simon Roughneen and his report is quite accurate. However, in the late afternoon the size of the crowd surged dramatically as more and more groups arrived, usually dancing exuberantly to the drum beats and clapping of the crowd. I would estimate that the size of the turnout doubled during this period.
When my digital camera’s battery died around 5 p.m. I decided to leave and found it quite difficult to walk against the flow of foot traffic up Ratchadamnoen Avenue back to Democracy Monument and Khao San Road. It was also impossible to get across either Pin Klao Bridge or Rama 8 Bridge. I saw there were red shirts all over the western parts of the city proper as my taxi went north toward Suan Dusit, but none were present in Bangkok Noi once I made it across the river at Sang Hee Bridge.
The rally at Phan Fa was joined by a procession of 500-1000 Buddhist monks at around 3 p.m., who splashed the crowd with holy water and were cheered excitedly. I was told that there was another group of monks of equal size supporting the Red Shirt movement at Sanam Luang park. This brought to mind images of the monks leading the protests in Yangoon in 2007. I don’t know if this presence of saffron robes in large numbers in national political protests is unprecedented or not.
The mood of the crowd was celebratory and happy, as if they had already achieved victory. I suppose a small victory of sorts had been achieved, because the BBC announced that this was the largest demonstration to come to Bangkok in over 30 years.
[…] – Rival Countries Move Up as Thailand Struggles BANGKOK POST – High Noon in Bangkok NEW MANDALA – Sunday in Bangkok, Reds in the City TNA – Red Shirts Threaten to Dog Abhisit to Pressure House Dissolution (or he will face mass […]
unfaithfulreader- just food for thought, in return, what does TOT and CAT gave back to the country? you might have to think hard about this.
Anyway, in criticize of the red, I think their demand is unrealistic and, quite frankly, ineffective. If they want true democracy, just the house dissolution is not enough.
Steve – Thank you, but I have to admit that it is not the best piece of writing but, well, it is not easy task explaining 20 years of history in a page.
Marcus@#9, whereas in the countryside – especially Lanna and Isaarn, the Red-Shirts are seen as heroes fighting Bangkok injustice. This is why I’ve been saying – for a long time – that
the fascist-construct “Thailand” is in danger of splitting apart,
into different states, possibly even into different countries.
Indeed Abhisit himself is saying – in today’s Bangkok Post – that he won’t call a general election, because he fears it would break the country up into many “small wars”.
Somtam Plara@8 : you’re exactly right about Abhisit’s weak position and the possibility of military revolt.
A sure sign of this is that Abhisit has had to bring in Third Army troops to protect himself and others at the 11th Regiment compound at Bang Khen.
It was the Third Army which had to be negotiated with, inorder to overcome a “misunderstanding” during the 2006 coup, when this out-of-town army was moving on Bangkok to restore Thaksin.
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Open thread on red protests
Chris Beale:
Yeah meant UDD not PAD. Sleepy typo…
Making sense of the verdict
Patiwat, are you saying the evidence of corruption produced by those three investigators was false and that the judges therefore made a fraudulent ruling or that you object to identities of the people who collected accurate evidence of corruption?
Sunday in Bangkok, reds in the city
“I wonder if the Ozzie social science teachers like Jim Taylor et al would be so enthusiastic about having a crook like Thaksin as PM of Australia.” >> How about trying to analyze the Thaksin phenomenon within the Thai context?
Bangkok Post introduces “UDD rural hordes”
The BP (and its Thai language sister, Post Today) of Monday contains a picture page of the protests, but “strangely” does not print any total perspective that might enable readers to see that there was any “mass” of people. All pics concern details.
Sunday in Bangkok, reds in the city
It’s a pity that this is all about restoring ill gotten gains to a megalomaniac politician rightfully convicted of corruption with not a shred of political manifesto from the reds. I wonder if the Ozzie social science teachers like Jim Taylor et al would be so enthusiastic about having a crook like Thaksin as PM of Australia.
A red show of strength, but then what?
David Brown – perhaps the most difficult thing of all, for Thai-observers, is to sift through the ever so-many rumours.
Personally – though I never discount them completely – I don’t place much weight on them : unless there are sufficient other reasons to start giving them weight. Eg. The Queen and the CP – we can not assume they necessarily agree. Poison ? I doubt it.
Open thread on red protests
GeGee @14:
I never said that Thaksin or the red leaders would get Thailand over the line, or that their rule was preferable to what has been going on. It might well be the same pyramid with a new cap, and less accountability. I was responding to Werner’s assertion that the reds were completely undeserving of sympathy, that they were brainwashed, and the suggestion that Thaksin was the worst of the worst — the last statement appearing to parrot the PAD line that Thaksin was “the most corrupt leader in Thai history.” He most certainly was not, unless you consider “upsetting other people’s corruption systems” to be a greater crime than just having your own.
The hypothesis that the reds believe Thaksin is the best option is not technically provable, but observable and intuitive. He’s the first leader to include the voting poor as a player in a power-grabbing scheme (populist democracy) whereas prior leaders either seized power by arms or maintained it with coalition deals that kept the rural voters sidelined into small regional parties. The current conflict is about whether to allow rural voters become significant players along with the usual elites, gentry, business tycoons, and generals. I have no idea whether it’s a good idea, but I certainly see how they, once awakened to the possibility, would not settle for anything less.
One need not be pro-Thaksin to be against provocative, hyperbolic, and perjorative rhetoric.
A red show of strength, but then what?
Actually I agree with the post, I felt that the red demand is too soft and to some extend, wouldnt really lead the what they really want. The parliamentary dissolution wouldnt solve anything, they have to ask for the changing of power than all the shady laws that been hidden in Thailand’s civil law.
Bangkok Post introduces “UDD rural hordes”
“rural hordes”… exactly the same dehumanizing rhetoric as in ’76… we all know how that ended… disgusted..!
Sunday in Bangkok, reds in the city
the only problem reported from the front line are the planting of agent provocateurs by the state/army and Newin’s henchmen to cause violence which would give the excuse for the military/state to act with full force – which is what they would like to do. A group of yellow hardcore dressed in red have already been identified at two sites and the police called in…
I think all freedom loving folk who deplore resurgent Thai neofascism must be pleased with the turnout of the reds at this (real) time…It is a pity the media, as an instrumentality of the state, has likewise vested interest in the current status quo and will not report with objectivity of anything resembling truth.
A red show of strength, but then what?
Kishen – there’s always very tight security around the Royal Family, when Thailand habitually goes through these sorts of crises.
It’s nothing to get terribly worked up about.
Most Red-Shirts simply want the Royals to stay out of party politics – not their overthrow. Thaksin certainly does not want that.
A red show of strength, but then what?
р╣Нр╣НYesterday the Reds numbered ‘at least 150,000 and growing’. But today the Red march had dwindled to a mere 80,000. Desertion among the Red army?
A red show of strength, but then what?
Kishen – an excellent post and analysis : I’d like to congratulate you on your brilliance.
Just a couple of points :
1) Abhisit’s power seems to be rapidly collapsing – you correctly state it took months, and months, for the PAD to oust Samak, than Wongsawat.
It was a long time before the PAD was able to force their governments (from memory it may only have been Wongsawat’s) to set up offices at Don Muang.
In contrast, Abhisit has sought refuge at the 11th Regiment’s compound, even before the protests gained anything like massive momentum.
And holed up there, he’s now beholden to – among others the Third Army – which has many Thaksin sympathisers among its’ ranks at officer level, and totally at foot-soldier level.
2) the Royal Family : Thaksin needs them to confer legitimacy on his (what I see as now inevitable) victory.
Whatever splits within there may be – they will present a united face.
HRH The Crown Prince will be the winner : as far as I can see, HRH has long been trying to broker a peace between pro and anti-Thaksin forces, and thereby save the kingdom.
Sunday in Bangkok, reds in the city
I was at Phan Fa bridge on Sunday at the same time as Simon Roughneen and his report is quite accurate. However, in the late afternoon the size of the crowd surged dramatically as more and more groups arrived, usually dancing exuberantly to the drum beats and clapping of the crowd. I would estimate that the size of the turnout doubled during this period.
When my digital camera’s battery died around 5 p.m. I decided to leave and found it quite difficult to walk against the flow of foot traffic up Ratchadamnoen Avenue back to Democracy Monument and Khao San Road. It was also impossible to get across either Pin Klao Bridge or Rama 8 Bridge. I saw there were red shirts all over the western parts of the city proper as my taxi went north toward Suan Dusit, but none were present in Bangkok Noi once I made it across the river at Sang Hee Bridge.
The rally at Phan Fa was joined by a procession of 500-1000 Buddhist monks at around 3 p.m., who splashed the crowd with holy water and were cheered excitedly. I was told that there was another group of monks of equal size supporting the Red Shirt movement at Sanam Luang park. This brought to mind images of the monks leading the protests in Yangoon in 2007. I don’t know if this presence of saffron robes in large numbers in national political protests is unprecedented or not.
The mood of the crowd was celebratory and happy, as if they had already achieved victory. I suppose a small victory of sorts had been achieved, because the BBC announced that this was the largest demonstration to come to Bangkok in over 30 years.
Sunday in Bangkok, reds in the city
[…] – Rival Countries Move Up as Thailand Struggles BANGKOK POST – High Noon in Bangkok NEW MANDALA – Sunday in Bangkok, Reds in the City TNA – Red Shirts Threaten to Dog Abhisit to Pressure House Dissolution (or he will face mass […]
Thai style democracy?
unfaithfulreader- just food for thought, in return, what does TOT and CAT gave back to the country? you might have to think hard about this.
Anyway, in criticize of the red, I think their demand is unrealistic and, quite frankly, ineffective. If they want true democracy, just the house dissolution is not enough.
Making sense of the verdict
Steve – Thank you, but I have to admit that it is not the best piece of writing but, well, it is not easy task explaining 20 years of history in a page.
Bangkok Post introduces “UDD rural hordes”
Marcus@#9, whereas in the countryside – especially Lanna and Isaarn, the Red-Shirts are seen as heroes fighting Bangkok injustice. This is why I’ve been saying – for a long time – that
the fascist-construct “Thailand” is in danger of splitting apart,
into different states, possibly even into different countries.
Indeed Abhisit himself is saying – in today’s Bangkok Post – that he won’t call a general election, because he fears it would break the country up into many “small wars”.
Open thread on red protests
Somtam Plara@8 : you’re exactly right about Abhisit’s weak position and the possibility of military revolt.
A sure sign of this is that Abhisit has had to bring in Third Army troops to protect himself and others at the 11th Regiment compound at Bang Khen.
It was the Third Army which had to be negotiated with, inorder to overcome a “misunderstanding” during the 2006 coup, when this out-of-town army was moving on Bangkok to restore Thaksin.
Hmong studies professor for University of Wisconsin – Madison
And for those who are interested, here is my new faculty webpage:
http://www.geography.wisc.edu/faculty/baird/index.html
This will be my last posting on this thread.