Kasemsun Chinnavaso, director-general of the Water Resources Department, said China had invited representatives from Cambodia, Laos, Vietnam and Thailand early this year to visit the Jinghong dam, one of four dams it operates along the Mekong River, but the trip was postponed due to cold weather. ??
Thank you very much Chris and others for your analysis and opinions.
If cash (occasionally counterbalanced with the barrel of a gun) has been the traditional formula for appeasement of these Reds then why is this formula not working now?
Is it because the aristocracy doesn’t have more cash or is it really that Thaksin has successfully put gross inequality into focus in a way that prior leaders had never accomplished?
How ironic that Thaksin has (inadvertently?) catalyzed a movement that effectively would seem to be calling for fairer distribution of opportunity and wealth.
Chris, if your synthesis of the movement is correct as essentially being driven by exasparation at disenfranchisement, why do you think Red leaders and journalists are doing such a poor job of communicating this? (or is it just me that has been confounded)
JohnH@8 – “I simply cannot believe that the majority of the Red Shirts can even begin to understand the concept of a republic”.
I think you are correct saying many – most likely most – Red Shirts DO NOT WANT a republic. THIS is the huge, revered legacy of Chulalongkorn, which can not be over-stated.
But I disagree that they don’t “understand” the concept – huge numbers of them have gone over the Mekong into Laos, or over the land borders into Myanmar, Cambodia. Huge numbers of them have extended families there.
The suffering of ordinary people and the escalation of tension in the Asia Pacific region could follow from the choices and actions of various other national governments toward Myanmar. Improved understanding of the situation depends in part on the decision makers’ knowledge that the real reason lies deeper. Playing the “human rights” card in pursuant of the military strategy should be things of the past. We must deter that objective by lifting the sanctions against Myanmar.
Macondo @13 – you’ve posted excellent comment and analysis :
1) “most unsettling proposition is the one that states that the Reds are not motivated by any underlying ideology.”
Thaksin seems to have given them an underlying ideology : “end double standards” – he’s reached into a deepening, long-developing well of immense resentment here.
2)” Or alternatively, that the ideologies present are so varied and disparate that it is impossible to have any sort of a consensus on the meaning of Red”. The unifying ideology is as I mentioned above.
It’s also very focused against the mataya – the aristocracy.
3) “Does this imply, ironically, that the only thing stopping chaos is the imagined presence of the King?”. Yes – though if hugely popular Princess Sirindhorn issues a call for calm, I’d be shocked if Red Shirts, Yellow Shirts, Green Shirts, etc. did not respect this.
4) “Is it possible to deduce any alternative fundamental commonality? Reds = economically disenfranchised??”
Yes – that’s how they see it – and that they have to fight now to prevent being FURTHER disenfranchised.
5) “Is the military realistically the last resort to diffuse the tension? Or is the imagined presence of the King also the only thing keeping the military somewhat unified?”
The Thai military has always been highly factionalised – hence so many coups.
But it is now much more divided than ever before – a lot of the military still supports Thaksin. And the heavily pro-Thaksin police have been in virtual open revolt for well over a year now, refusing to accept Abhisit’s nomination of a new police chief. The police will not be putting their heart in to stopping the Red Shirts this weekend, that’s why he;s now desperately scrambling to find army units willing to do the job.
Michael –
Re. your #4 : history is full of examples where countries find themselves in positions they did not wish for, where situations spin of control. “Man makes history, but not in circumstances of his choosing”..
Your : “It would take attractive ideas, unity, skillful organisation, a plan about what to do in the event of winning” : like I said the situation is spinning out of control.
Re. your #5 : you’ve obviously not been reading either the Bangkok
Post or Nation thoroughly over the period leading up to and during Anupong’s US visit, when there was extensive reporting of the imminence of a coup, only cancelled at the last moment, according to one report. Go back to sleep – and wait for reality to knock you on your head !!
Perhaps worth revisiting Tyson Roberts predictions about the decline of the Mekong River following China’s ‘fluvicidal’ dam cascade plans. His comments on drought are particularly germane in the present context. He gave the scheme only 30 years before nature catches up with engineering. By that time, the river will be a shadow of it’s former productive and biodiverse self, like most in China:
I find it amazing there can be such a lack of consensus as to the underlying forces that motivate the Reds. However, I would think the most unsettling proposition is the one that states that the Reds are not motivated by any underlying ideology. Or alternatively, that the ideologies present are so varied and disparate that it is impossible to have any sort of a consensus on the meaning of Red.
Does this imply, ironically, that the only thing stopping chaos is the imagined presence of the King?
Is it possible to deduce any alternative fundamental commonality? Reds = economically disenfranchised??
Is the military realistically the last resort to diffuse the tension? Or is the imagined presence of the King also the only thing keeping the military somewhat unified?
It’s too soon to conclude on what the Red Shirts are standing for. As a whole, the Red is quite fragmented. I’d say that it has now divided into three major camps- the Thaksin/Pueah Thai/Saam Gloae, which commands a majority Red shirts in Thailand; the ‘Red Siam’ (Deang Siam) of Surachai Saedan and Chakrapop Penkair, which is a republican voice; and the Marxist-socialist Red of the exiled academic, Giles Ungpakorn, which doesn’t really count in terms of political followers.
In my not so humble opinion, their best bet is still Thaksin. Nobody can command the masses of the Red like him. It seems like Thaksin himself will have no alternative- will he become an ideological leader of the Red? We will just have to wait and see.
I lived and worked in Thailand for 6 years and analyzed its businesses, including Thaksin’s rise starting with his doctorate qualification, through the police ranks, radio equipment contracts, and how he built and sold his mobile phone concession. He is no saint but he built wealth with more smartness and legitimacy than most tycoons in Thailand. That much I observed at least until he grew too arrogant and entered politics.
But it is only today as I read “Political Economy of Monarchy and Democracy” by an Austrian economist that I understand how monarchs might attempt to monopolize justice and peacemaking, making this the archilles heel of a monarchy and a democracy that depends on monarchy. See http://mises.org/daily/4068
If one regards a system in which “rural people, have willingly accepted bribes for votes, or followed the kamnan’s ‘guidance’ on such matters.” as bad, then, obviously, it is time to change it. As such a system depends strongly on elites that have an interest in exactly this, namely that “rural people willingly accept bribes for votes, or follow the kamnan’s ‘guidance’”, isn’t it time that we have some modifications? In other words, exactly because the past and the current situation leave quite a lot to be desired, a change of the system can hardly lead to something worse.
Concerning the ideological platform – of any kind – NOT articulated by the leaders of the Red Shirts, it would be nice if we find a political platform of, let’s say the democrat party. Furthermore, isn’t it quite nice that the red shirts do not create ridiculous ideological platforms brainwashing people? In short, a political system that does not depend on ideological platforms but on rational public political discourse, has quite a few advantages. Is JohnH in favour of what seems to be criticized?
THE OPIUM WARLORDS
Hla Oo ,
Are you familiar with this this controversial 1970s film about Khun Sa and in support of an eventually failed campaign for proposals that the US purchase the entire opium crop of the Shan States?
The major ethnographic and narrative themes parallel several of those you develop through Parts 1 & 2 of The Scourge ….. NA subscribers in Australia can borrow the video from the National Library .
Can NA please providse your readers with more precise details than those to which my immediate circumstance give access:-
What is the name of the producer?
The year of release etc. ?
Screenings will further enhance appreciation of the NA six-part series.
Dear Hla Oo
Congratulations […] on your recent articles, which many readers found to be of great literary merit. This made us wonder why you had chosen not to use your real name. It is common knowledge among our Burmese readers that the two names Hla Oo and […], are completely distinct identities and cannot belong to the same individual.
The […] with whom I was acquainted was a strong supporter of the military regime, and a strong opponent of Aung San Suu Kyi and the democracy movement. He also was the one who had a chance meeting with retired General Tint Swe and the then Burmese ambassador’s wife in Campsie in the early 90s, after which he followed them to Cabramatta. He received business favours from General Tint Swe. I thought he was still in Burma, doing well by doing good. While reading your recent articles, it suddenly dawned on me that he was you.
It set me to thinking about how you must have had a “Damascus Road experience”, because the result has been a complete “about-face”. I thought that your uncle in Canberra would be very pleased to learn of your conversion. We welcome the real you to the real world. Will the real […] please stand up!
Mary Cloti Way
I simply cannot believe that the majority of the Red Shirts can even begin to understand the concept of a republic, yet alone what this means in political and practical terms for the people of Thailand and the future of the country.
It seems highly unlikely that the same rural people, who have willingly accepted bribes for votes in the past, or followed the kamnan’s ‘guidance’ on such matters , would suddenly become truly politicised overnight, develop a keen and urgent sense of moral and ideological obligation and a strong desire to make change happen.
Equally, I do not see any ideological platform – of any kind – articulated by the leaders of the Red Shirts. Forgetting Thaksin for a moment (if we can), apart from calling for a dissolution of parliament, a return to the previous constitution and new elections, what else do the red shirts stand for?
Does anyone here really think that with its long, long history of self serving politicians , party hopping and cronyism, the complexion of Thai politics will change any time soon, no matter what may or may not happen in the immediate future.
If things do come a head, what then and what after?
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Damned Chinese: mighty Mekong a memory
Kasemsun Chinnavaso, director-general of the Water Resources Department, said China had invited representatives from Cambodia, Laos, Vietnam and Thailand early this year to visit the Jinghong dam, one of four dams it operates along the Mekong River, but the trip was postponed due to cold weather. ??
http://bangkokpost.com/news/local/34170/china-asks-mekong-states-to-visit-dam
Jinghong weather conditions for January
————————————–Max:—-Avg:——-Min:
Max Temperature————-30 ┬░C—27 ┬░C——15 ┬░C
Mean Temperature———–22 ┬░C—20 ┬░C——-16 ┬░C
Min Temperature ————–17 ┬░C—12 ┬░C———8 ┬░C
http://www.wunderground.com/history/station/56959/2010/1/10/MonthlyHistory.html
Must have been really difficult to put on one of those jackets they use in Antarctica. Too many straps.
A unity government for Najib?
Agreed HCLau.
Events of the past two weeks confirm beyond any reasonable doubt that Najib has taken Option (1) and is likely to use Option (2) against PR.
It is now evident that Najib is not a reformer and would rather see Malaysia burn rather than lose his position.
The Economist on Red Shirt politics
Thank you very much Chris and others for your analysis and opinions.
If cash (occasionally counterbalanced with the barrel of a gun) has been the traditional formula for appeasement of these Reds then why is this formula not working now?
Is it because the aristocracy doesn’t have more cash or is it really that Thaksin has successfully put gross inequality into focus in a way that prior leaders had never accomplished?
How ironic that Thaksin has (inadvertently?) catalyzed a movement that effectively would seem to be calling for fairer distribution of opportunity and wealth.
Chris, if your synthesis of the movement is correct as essentially being driven by exasparation at disenfranchisement, why do you think Red leaders and journalists are doing such a poor job of communicating this? (or is it just me that has been confounded)
The Economist on Red Shirt politics
JohnH@8 – “I simply cannot believe that the majority of the Red Shirts can even begin to understand the concept of a republic”.
I think you are correct saying many – most likely most – Red Shirts DO NOT WANT a republic. THIS is the huge, revered legacy of Chulalongkorn, which can not be over-stated.
But I disagree that they don’t “understand” the concept – huge numbers of them have gone over the Mekong into Laos, or over the land borders into Myanmar, Cambodia. Huge numbers of them have extended families there.
Never-ending Burma debate
The suffering of ordinary people and the escalation of tension in the Asia Pacific region could follow from the choices and actions of various other national governments toward Myanmar. Improved understanding of the situation depends in part on the decision makers’ knowledge that the real reason lies deeper. Playing the “human rights” card in pursuant of the military strategy should be things of the past. We must deter that objective by lifting the sanctions against Myanmar.
Abhisit cancels Australia trip
I suspect, this happened after Abhisit was summoned to report current situation to HMK.
The Economist on Red Shirt politics
Macondo @13 – you’ve posted excellent comment and analysis :
1) “most unsettling proposition is the one that states that the Reds are not motivated by any underlying ideology.”
Thaksin seems to have given them an underlying ideology : “end double standards” – he’s reached into a deepening, long-developing well of immense resentment here.
2)” Or alternatively, that the ideologies present are so varied and disparate that it is impossible to have any sort of a consensus on the meaning of Red”. The unifying ideology is as I mentioned above.
It’s also very focused against the mataya – the aristocracy.
3) “Does this imply, ironically, that the only thing stopping chaos is the imagined presence of the King?”. Yes – though if hugely popular Princess Sirindhorn issues a call for calm, I’d be shocked if Red Shirts, Yellow Shirts, Green Shirts, etc. did not respect this.
4) “Is it possible to deduce any alternative fundamental commonality? Reds = economically disenfranchised??”
Yes – that’s how they see it – and that they have to fight now to prevent being FURTHER disenfranchised.
5) “Is the military realistically the last resort to diffuse the tension? Or is the imagined presence of the King also the only thing keeping the military somewhat unified?”
The Thai military has always been highly factionalised – hence so many coups.
But it is now much more divided than ever before – a lot of the military still supports Thaksin. And the heavily pro-Thaksin police have been in virtual open revolt for well over a year now, refusing to accept Abhisit’s nomination of a new police chief. The police will not be putting their heart in to stopping the Red Shirts this weekend, that’s why he;s now desperately scrambling to find army units willing to do the job.
Are you kidding me?
Michael –
Re. your #4 : history is full of examples where countries find themselves in positions they did not wish for, where situations spin of control. “Man makes history, but not in circumstances of his choosing”..
Your : “It would take attractive ideas, unity, skillful organisation, a plan about what to do in the event of winning” : like I said the situation is spinning out of control.
Re. your #5 : you’ve obviously not been reading either the Bangkok
Post or Nation thoroughly over the period leading up to and during Anupong’s US visit, when there was extensive reporting of the imminence of a coup, only cancelled at the last moment, according to one report. Go back to sleep – and wait for reality to knock you on your head !!
Damned Chinese: mighty Mekong a memory
Perhaps worth revisiting Tyson Roberts predictions about the decline of the Mekong River following China’s ‘fluvicidal’ dam cascade plans. His comments on drought are particularly germane in the present context. He gave the scheme only 30 years before nature catches up with engineering. By that time, the river will be a shadow of it’s former productive and biodiverse self, like most in China:
http://www.internationalrivers.org/files/tyson%20roberts%20paper%20on%20yunnan.pdf
Abhisit cancels Australia trip
Ruling class panic – like 1976 !
But now a very different society.
The Economist on Red Shirt politics
I find it amazing there can be such a lack of consensus as to the underlying forces that motivate the Reds. However, I would think the most unsettling proposition is the one that states that the Reds are not motivated by any underlying ideology. Or alternatively, that the ideologies present are so varied and disparate that it is impossible to have any sort of a consensus on the meaning of Red.
Does this imply, ironically, that the only thing stopping chaos is the imagined presence of the King?
Is it possible to deduce any alternative fundamental commonality? Reds = economically disenfranchised??
Is the military realistically the last resort to diffuse the tension? Or is the imagined presence of the King also the only thing keeping the military somewhat unified?
Damned Chinese: mighty Mekong a memory
Thank you for the interesting discussions here.
Can someone enlighten me if there has been any study to assess the potential impact of such changes to Mekong flow on the Tonle Sap flood plain?
Many thanks.
The Economist on Red Shirt politics
It’s too soon to conclude on what the Red Shirts are standing for. As a whole, the Red is quite fragmented. I’d say that it has now divided into three major camps- the Thaksin/Pueah Thai/Saam Gloae, which commands a majority Red shirts in Thailand; the ‘Red Siam’ (Deang Siam) of Surachai Saedan and Chakrapop Penkair, which is a republican voice; and the Marxist-socialist Red of the exiled academic, Giles Ungpakorn, which doesn’t really count in terms of political followers.
In my not so humble opinion, their best bet is still Thaksin. Nobody can command the masses of the Red like him. It seems like Thaksin himself will have no alternative- will he become an ideological leader of the Red? We will just have to wait and see.
The Economist on Red Shirt politics
I lived and worked in Thailand for 6 years and analyzed its businesses, including Thaksin’s rise starting with his doctorate qualification, through the police ranks, radio equipment contracts, and how he built and sold his mobile phone concession. He is no saint but he built wealth with more smartness and legitimacy than most tycoons in Thailand. That much I observed at least until he grew too arrogant and entered politics.
But it is only today as I read “Political Economy of Monarchy and Democracy” by an Austrian economist that I understand how monarchs might attempt to monopolize justice and peacemaking, making this the archilles heel of a monarchy and a democracy that depends on monarchy. See http://mises.org/daily/4068
The Economist on Red Shirt politics
If one regards a system in which “rural people, have willingly accepted bribes for votes, or followed the kamnan’s ‘guidance’ on such matters.” as bad, then, obviously, it is time to change it. As such a system depends strongly on elites that have an interest in exactly this, namely that “rural people willingly accept bribes for votes, or follow the kamnan’s ‘guidance’”, isn’t it time that we have some modifications? In other words, exactly because the past and the current situation leave quite a lot to be desired, a change of the system can hardly lead to something worse.
Concerning the ideological platform – of any kind – NOT articulated by the leaders of the Red Shirts, it would be nice if we find a political platform of, let’s say the democrat party. Furthermore, isn’t it quite nice that the red shirts do not create ridiculous ideological platforms brainwashing people? In short, a political system that does not depend on ideological platforms but on rational public political discourse, has quite a few advantages. Is JohnH in favour of what seems to be criticized?
The scourge of Burma, Part 2
THE OPIUM WARLORDS
Hla Oo ,
Are you familiar with this this controversial 1970s film about Khun Sa and in support of an eventually failed campaign for proposals that the US purchase the entire opium crop of the Shan States?
The major ethnographic and narrative themes parallel several of those you develop through Parts 1 & 2 of The Scourge ….. NA subscribers in Australia can borrow the video from the National Library .
Can NA please providse your readers with more precise details than those to which my immediate circumstance give access:-
What is the name of the producer?
The year of release etc. ?
Screenings will further enhance appreciation of the NA six-part series.
The scourge of Burma, Part 2
Dear Hla Oo
Congratulations […] on your recent articles, which many readers found to be of great literary merit. This made us wonder why you had chosen not to use your real name. It is common knowledge among our Burmese readers that the two names Hla Oo and […], are completely distinct identities and cannot belong to the same individual.
The […] with whom I was acquainted was a strong supporter of the military regime, and a strong opponent of Aung San Suu Kyi and the democracy movement. He also was the one who had a chance meeting with retired General Tint Swe and the then Burmese ambassador’s wife in Campsie in the early 90s, after which he followed them to Cabramatta. He received business favours from General Tint Swe. I thought he was still in Burma, doing well by doing good. While reading your recent articles, it suddenly dawned on me that he was you.
It set me to thinking about how you must have had a “Damascus Road experience”, because the result has been a complete “about-face”. I thought that your uncle in Canberra would be very pleased to learn of your conversion. We welcome the real you to the real world. Will the real […] please stand up!
Mary Cloti Way
Making sense of the verdict
The full text of the verdict has been posted on the Supreme Court’s web site at
http://www.supremecourt.or.th/webportal/maincode/index.php?base=24
The Economist on Red Shirt politics
And now even HMK has been drawn into this conflict–“Red shirts disturb peace of recovering King,” so to speak (see todays’ Nation)
The Economist on Red Shirt politics
I simply cannot believe that the majority of the Red Shirts can even begin to understand the concept of a republic, yet alone what this means in political and practical terms for the people of Thailand and the future of the country.
It seems highly unlikely that the same rural people, who have willingly accepted bribes for votes in the past, or followed the kamnan’s ‘guidance’ on such matters , would suddenly become truly politicised overnight, develop a keen and urgent sense of moral and ideological obligation and a strong desire to make change happen.
Equally, I do not see any ideological platform – of any kind – articulated by the leaders of the Red Shirts. Forgetting Thaksin for a moment (if we can), apart from calling for a dissolution of parliament, a return to the previous constitution and new elections, what else do the red shirts stand for?
Does anyone here really think that with its long, long history of self serving politicians , party hopping and cronyism, the complexion of Thai politics will change any time soon, no matter what may or may not happen in the immediate future.
If things do come a head, what then and what after?