…sounds like a fascinating book, I do hope it becomes available at a cheaper price at some point – books like this need to be read by those living beside the Mekong and, at this price, I don’t think Chiang Saen library (if such a thing were to exist) would consider it.
Good points Moe Aung. I’d like to add that I think the BBC guy’s article and radio broadcast were inaccurate, and even a bit misleading: although the KIA ceasefire could break down, this has not happened yet, and is not inevitable. I don’t believe it’s what the majority of KIO want. By presenting a resumption of armed conflict as more or less inevitable, there is a danger of fuelling self-fulfilling prophecies.
It is quite strange to speak about chaos to come. The situation seems to be already kind of chaotic. However, through the last decades there have hardly been longer phases which did not have a touch of chaos.
It seems that many are expecting far reaching changes, may be a kind of revolution or counter-revolution. But doesn’t the current affairs remind far more to a soap opera. Of, course, a at times quite bloody and expensive soap opera. I am rather sure that all will end in a happy final.
To Khun Vichai N. – I’m afraid the problem will not just go away. The court case may be done with but not the conflicts that currently divide our beloved nation. As many other people have said before, this time, it has gone beyond Thaksin and his popular political policies.
On the other hand, a good farang friend of mine told me that the Reds will eventually lose and things will go back to the way it used to be. From the experience of his own country and elsewhere, only the revolutions supported by the middle class are successful – since these people have money and other means to achieve the desired political goals – as opposed to the rural folks who have just their bare hands. He’s from France. ..
Frderico – you say you’ve been to Buriram.
But that is Khmer Isaarn.
And as other NM posts mention, Newin Chidchob’s BhumJaiTai is very strong in Buriram, though not universally popular.
I think the real main story of what is happening in “Thailand” is not in Bangkok or Buriram. It is happening in LAO Isaarn.
We are witnessing something very different from the old adage of
‘”Thai” governments being made in the provinces, and broken in Bangkok’.
Now the provinces – 38 of them, if the military’s moves are anything to go by – and especially LAO Isaarn are no longer willing to submit to this adage. They want THEIR government back – or, I believe – they will eventually secede from “Thailand”.
Dear U Hla Oo
I found your apologies unconvincing, because you could easily have avoided giving offence in the first place.I also found your claim that “you know me very well” rather puzzling.
You may well be acquainted with my mother and may have attended some social events at her house, but I was not there.
I still maintain that your allegation of my meeting with retired General Tint Swe is totally false.
I am pleased to know that Hla Oo is your real name, and I accept your apology, albeit grudgingly after you attacked me unfairly. I truly believe that this petty dispute should not clog up the important channels of debate on this forum.
It is interesting too that the elitists tactics have not changed in 6o years either…Pridi Banonyong forced into exile by rumors, the chief protagonists being the Pramot brothers – the Abhisits of their day. One printed in Siam Rath, Kukrit Pramots paper suggested Pridi wished to return from exile and set up Thailand as a republic……vaguely familiar?
Suzie Wong and BarryBankruad :
Now – who was that brilliant historian and founding father of the social sciences, who wrote : “history repeats the first time as tragedy, the second time as farce”. Perhaps Michael Connors could enlighten us.
The Thaksin verdict, and reaction, will certainly be a good yardstick of how great an understanding even current social science can give us into such a complex, subtle, virtually never colonised , society as Thailand. And accurate prediction is notoriously difficult in the social “sciences”.
I wonder if Thitinan – despite his undoubted brilliance – is totally correct in predicting “the only certainty is that no one will be satisfied”.
I don’t think that even if the entire 76 billion baht is expropriated, the Thaksin seizure case will be “done with”. It will be only the beginning and go on for many years to come, with many other Thai fortunes put at risk as the political wheel slowly spins.
Just in case, I did not answer your question earlier – Singapore’s PAP controls Singapore – totally. The people of Singapore have no option but to follow.
Singapore’s diversity vision?
How can there be diversity, when there is no discussion on debate?
All religion and culture is controlled by the Singapore Government.
The government sets the parameters. Remember, the case where a Muslim father wanted his daughter to wear the tudung to school but it was against Singapore laws.
Therefore there is more freedom in Malaysia than in Singapore – relatively. The problem is of course, that while BN/UMNO is not as strong as PAP, it nevertheless is powerful.
I have no idea whether it is possible, but the geography of the upper Salween and Mekong suggests that the Chinese might be tempted divert their waters into the Yangtse in a kind of giant Snowy scheme, starving Laos, part of Burma, NE Thailand, Cambodia, and southern Vietnam. Any comments from the more hydrologically informed?
As is so often the case, the Thai authorities are in the position of doing the right thing for the wrong reason.
A blog or other website operated by a foreigner resident in Thailand, said person placing ads or other revenue generating items on their publication, and not having a proper work permit to operate that publication whether as site administrator, editor or contributor, is in fact a criminal act. Thai law is very clear on this point.
It doesn’t matter one bit that the site operator may claim to be simply trying to offset hosting costs. The work itself is illegal in almost every instance. And you would find in almost every case that the revenue from the ads goes unreported and untaxed.
Suzie. How right you are. History is about to repeat itself in Thailand as it has done throughout the world throughout the centuries. History shows that whenever the poorer, lower classes have had enough of the status quo and rebel, then chaos rules. Often unfortunately to be replaced by a regime that is worse than the one it replaced. I just don’t hope that this happens in this Country that I love very much.
Yes, I didn’t really make my point very clearly, and I do agree with you. However, what I wrote was that we should not be “overly concerned”. That does not mean that we should ignore past data altogether. It just means that we should recognise that there are severe limits to what can be understand using just the present data. The limitations are mainly related to the scale of data collection and analysis. Right now there are daily fluctuations in water levels being caused by the dams, but because official data are only being collected on a daily basis, the changes that are taking place over 24 hour periods are not easily identifiable. For example, if the water is up in the morning and then drops in the evening before rising again the next morning (as would be expected for operating regimes that maximize profit), this might not show up if water levels are monitored once a day, at the same time each day, as is common practice. So, we need to look beyond the present data, although I am not proposing that we don’t look at it as well. Sorry, I was not clear about my reasoning in my last posting. Sometimes I forget that things that I assume are not necessarily common knowledge for others.
Thanks Ian, some good points here. But I can’t let this go by:
“we should not be overly concerned about past hydrological data, because the dam construction that is going on at present is unprecedented for the Mekong, so what is happening now represents something new.”
Surely if anyone is attempting to demonstrate impacts (unprecedented or otherwise) a serious attempt to establish the “baseline” hydrological condition would be the first step.
I think that a Western audience would actually be more interested since you’ve got head hunters-turned-narcotraffickers and all sorts of exotic “tribal” insurgents to throw in to the mix.
Frankly, it is still a pretty glaring omission. It would be rather like trying to describe Lebanese politics for the past 50 years without a single sentence mentioning the Phalange, PLO, Israel, Syria, Hezbollah etc.
Although the patronage and the fundamentalists will certainly oppose and cause trouble, I prefer to see Najib moves ahead with his reform agenda because both the Malaysian cronyism and religious-racial tension are serious. Unless Najib carries out the necessary change, Malaysia’s economy will certainly be stagnated and structurally unable to scale to new heights in a changed world of technology and competitiveness. Also, Najib needs to adopt preventive measure regarding the religious-racial tension because the costs of ignoring would be beyond imagination. Recent history has already shown us what it could potentially escalate to.
According to Greg’s report, it seems to me Najib has consolidated sufficient power to carry out the important reform. What Najib needs would probably be the political will, technical assistance, and the realization that, “No pain, no gain.”
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Review of Contested Waterscapes in the Mekong Region
…sounds like a fascinating book, I do hope it becomes available at a cheaper price at some point – books like this need to be read by those living beside the Mekong and, at this price, I don’t think Chiang Saen library (if such a thing were to exist) would consider it.
The KIA digging in
Good points Moe Aung. I’d like to add that I think the BBC guy’s article and radio broadcast were inaccurate, and even a bit misleading: although the KIA ceasefire could break down, this has not happened yet, and is not inevitable. I don’t believe it’s what the majority of KIO want. By presenting a resumption of armed conflict as more or less inevitable, there is a danger of fuelling self-fulfilling prophecies.
Thitinan on the looming verdict
It is quite strange to speak about chaos to come. The situation seems to be already kind of chaotic. However, through the last decades there have hardly been longer phases which did not have a touch of chaos.
It seems that many are expecting far reaching changes, may be a kind of revolution or counter-revolution. But doesn’t the current affairs remind far more to a soap opera. Of, course, a at times quite bloody and expensive soap opera. I am rather sure that all will end in a happy final.
Thitinan on the looming verdict
To Khun Vichai N. – I’m afraid the problem will not just go away. The court case may be done with but not the conflicts that currently divide our beloved nation. As many other people have said before, this time, it has gone beyond Thaksin and his popular political policies.
On the other hand, a good farang friend of mine told me that the Reds will eventually lose and things will go back to the way it used to be. From the experience of his own country and elsewhere, only the revolutions supported by the middle class are successful – since these people have money and other means to achieve the desired political goals – as opposed to the rural folks who have just their bare hands. He’s from France. ..
Are you kidding me?
Frderico – you say you’ve been to Buriram.
But that is Khmer Isaarn.
And as other NM posts mention, Newin Chidchob’s BhumJaiTai is very strong in Buriram, though not universally popular.
I think the real main story of what is happening in “Thailand” is not in Bangkok or Buriram. It is happening in LAO Isaarn.
We are witnessing something very different from the old adage of
‘”Thai” governments being made in the provinces, and broken in Bangkok’.
Now the provinces – 38 of them, if the military’s moves are anything to go by – and especially LAO Isaarn are no longer willing to submit to this adage. They want THEIR government back – or, I believe – they will eventually secede from “Thailand”.
Burma sanctions: limited, Western, symbolic
Dear U Hla Oo
I found your apologies unconvincing, because you could easily have avoided giving offence in the first place.I also found your claim that “you know me very well” rather puzzling.
You may well be acquainted with my mother and may have attended some social events at her house, but I was not there.
I still maintain that your allegation of my meeting with retired General Tint Swe is totally false.
I am pleased to know that Hla Oo is your real name, and I accept your apology, albeit grudgingly after you attacked me unfairly. I truly believe that this petty dispute should not clog up the important channels of debate on this forum.
Thitinan on the looming verdict
It is interesting too that the elitists tactics have not changed in 6o years either…Pridi Banonyong forced into exile by rumors, the chief protagonists being the Pramot brothers – the Abhisits of their day. One printed in Siam Rath, Kukrit Pramots paper suggested Pridi wished to return from exile and set up Thailand as a republic……vaguely familiar?
Thitinan on the looming verdict
To all political obsessed and observers,
FYI, Voice TV will broadcast live from BKK Supreme Court and Dubai on 26 Feb, 9 am BKK time onwards.
http://www.voicetv.co.th/live
Thitinan on the looming verdict
Suzie Wong and BarryBankruad :
Now – who was that brilliant historian and founding father of the social sciences, who wrote : “history repeats the first time as tragedy, the second time as farce”. Perhaps Michael Connors could enlighten us.
The Thaksin verdict, and reaction, will certainly be a good yardstick of how great an understanding even current social science can give us into such a complex, subtle, virtually never colonised , society as Thailand. And accurate prediction is notoriously difficult in the social “sciences”.
I wonder if Thitinan – despite his undoubted brilliance – is totally correct in predicting “the only certainty is that no one will be satisfied”.
Thitinan on the looming verdict
I don’t think that even if the entire 76 billion baht is expropriated, the Thaksin seizure case will be “done with”. It will be only the beginning and go on for many years to come, with many other Thai fortunes put at risk as the political wheel slowly spins.
Thitinan on the looming verdict
I belong to the millions of Thais, who will exhale CO2 of relief, that the Thaksin asset case judicial resolution will finally be done with.
Against the security of the kingdom?
So why would the site be unblocked within 24 hours? Because the guy suddenly got all the work papers and such?
Hardly a blog anywhere in the world – kiss the law – pays taxes and is registered.
Maybe this country as well has more important things to do.
Governance and rule of law in Malaysia
Hello again Suzie,
Just in case, I did not answer your question earlier – Singapore’s PAP controls Singapore – totally. The people of Singapore have no option but to follow.
Singapore’s diversity vision?
How can there be diversity, when there is no discussion on debate?
All religion and culture is controlled by the Singapore Government.
The government sets the parameters. Remember, the case where a Muslim father wanted his daughter to wear the tudung to school but it was against Singapore laws.
Therefore there is more freedom in Malaysia than in Singapore – relatively. The problem is of course, that while BN/UMNO is not as strong as PAP, it nevertheless is powerful.
Damned Chinese: mighty Mekong a memory
I have no idea whether it is possible, but the geography of the upper Salween and Mekong suggests that the Chinese might be tempted divert their waters into the Yangtse in a kind of giant Snowy scheme, starving Laos, part of Burma, NE Thailand, Cambodia, and southern Vietnam. Any comments from the more hydrologically informed?
Against the security of the kingdom?
As is so often the case, the Thai authorities are in the position of doing the right thing for the wrong reason.
A blog or other website operated by a foreigner resident in Thailand, said person placing ads or other revenue generating items on their publication, and not having a proper work permit to operate that publication whether as site administrator, editor or contributor, is in fact a criminal act. Thai law is very clear on this point.
It doesn’t matter one bit that the site operator may claim to be simply trying to offset hosting costs. The work itself is illegal in almost every instance. And you would find in almost every case that the revenue from the ads goes unreported and untaxed.
Thitinan on the looming verdict
Suzie. How right you are. History is about to repeat itself in Thailand as it has done throughout the world throughout the centuries. History shows that whenever the poorer, lower classes have had enough of the status quo and rebel, then chaos rules. Often unfortunately to be replaced by a regime that is worse than the one it replaced. I just don’t hope that this happens in this Country that I love very much.
Damned Chinese: mighty Mekong a memory
Yes, I didn’t really make my point very clearly, and I do agree with you. However, what I wrote was that we should not be “overly concerned”. That does not mean that we should ignore past data altogether. It just means that we should recognise that there are severe limits to what can be understand using just the present data. The limitations are mainly related to the scale of data collection and analysis. Right now there are daily fluctuations in water levels being caused by the dams, but because official data are only being collected on a daily basis, the changes that are taking place over 24 hour periods are not easily identifiable. For example, if the water is up in the morning and then drops in the evening before rising again the next morning (as would be expected for operating regimes that maximize profit), this might not show up if water levels are monitored once a day, at the same time each day, as is common practice. So, we need to look beyond the present data, although I am not proposing that we don’t look at it as well. Sorry, I was not clear about my reasoning in my last posting. Sometimes I forget that things that I assume are not necessarily common knowledge for others.
Damned Chinese: mighty Mekong a memory
Thanks Ian, some good points here. But I can’t let this go by:
“we should not be overly concerned about past hydrological data, because the dam construction that is going on at present is unprecedented for the Mekong, so what is happening now represents something new.”
Surely if anyone is attempting to demonstrate impacts (unprecedented or otherwise) a serious attempt to establish the “baseline” hydrological condition would be the first step.
Stanley A. Weiss on Burma policy
I think that a Western audience would actually be more interested since you’ve got head hunters-turned-narcotraffickers and all sorts of exotic “tribal” insurgents to throw in to the mix.
Frankly, it is still a pretty glaring omission. It would be rather like trying to describe Lebanese politics for the past 50 years without a single sentence mentioning the Phalange, PLO, Israel, Syria, Hezbollah etc.
Is Najib On His Way Out? Part II
Although the patronage and the fundamentalists will certainly oppose and cause trouble, I prefer to see Najib moves ahead with his reform agenda because both the Malaysian cronyism and religious-racial tension are serious. Unless Najib carries out the necessary change, Malaysia’s economy will certainly be stagnated and structurally unable to scale to new heights in a changed world of technology and competitiveness. Also, Najib needs to adopt preventive measure regarding the religious-racial tension because the costs of ignoring would be beyond imagination. Recent history has already shown us what it could potentially escalate to.
According to Greg’s report, it seems to me Najib has consolidated sufficient power to carry out the important reform. What Najib needs would probably be the political will, technical assistance, and the realization that, “No pain, no gain.”