On TV during the night it looked somehow like a ” Look Thung ” Concert with performances until dawn, after the speeches addressing the crowd ended short after midnight.
The name of “Khao Yai Thieng” in Thai letters is not in the same way spelled as the well known Khao Yai NP, so am I right that the place has nothing to do with it, even if it’s location is close by ?
Thanks Nick.
It is indeed an extremely complex situation.
Wassana’s recent piece was to me the most alarming of all
“civil war” warnings.
At first when these started being tossed about – first by the PAD’s Sondhi declaring “civil war has started” – I discounted such talk as simply hot-headed political rhetoric’, but have grown increasingly alarmed as the situation continues deteriorating.
And you mentioned the possibility at the start of your excellent book – which I’ve passed on to a friend.
I pity those Thais sincerely trying to find a peaceful solution, and hope they succeed.
I’m interested that you too think there won’t be an Isaarn-Bangkok break – you’re probably correct :
just about everyone commenting here, except me, seems to discount this.
I’m simply worried by some alarming parrallels with eg. Yugoslavia’s break-up, and earlier civil wars in the West and Asia, which were both cause and effect of the triumph of capitalism and industrialisation. And that two decades ago, nobody would have thought Thailand’s far south would become anthing like as bad as now.
Also former PM Anand’s front-page warning, a few years ago, against Thailand breaking up along regional lines.
Mind you, after Suharto fell there were similiar dismal fears about Indonesia, which happily proved wrong.
Suchit is not an executive member of the Democrat Party. He is a retired professor from the faculty of political science, Chulalongkorn University, and also attached to its ISIS. The foreign ministry has been sending him around to major countries in the past months in oder to explain Thai politics to foreign audiences. By the way, the Political Development Council is attached to Borwornsak’s King Prajadhipok Institute, and Borwornsak is also secretary-general of the PDC.
I am occasionally guilty of simplistic reasoning, but beg to differ with StanG and Pharris on certain assumptions they appear to have made. The report of how great the repatriation went was from the Lao Foreign Ministry. And to compare living in a village to a lifetime of camp living is hyperbole at its worst. It is doubtful that refugees would face a lifetime in a camp, but at some date would be repatriated or relocated to another country. And it is faulty to reason that those are the only two alternatives or that somehow life in a village cannot be miserable for its entirety.
Reading today’s Ambassador John’s statement in the editorial and comments section of the Bangkok Post, he seems to politely put a better perspective on how the Thai authorities handled this issue. Given the even more extreme level of lack of transparency in Laos, ideas that somehow refugees “saw the light” and their emotional pendulum swung the other way is a vivid imagination at best. However, admittedly probably none of us was ever in those camps actually listening to the poor Hmong, so we can’t say from a primary source that what we are all arguing about is or is not true.
Susie Wong – For an event organised by the Royal Thai Government’s representatives in the UK, did you honestly expect anything more?
But, more interesting is that this talk is actually being hosted by the RTG at all. It is reassuring to see that the restrictions on free speech here are not embraced as wholeheartedly in Thailand’s foreign missions – despite the rather tame panel.
At least we can hope Giles Ungpakorn might turn up to ask some pertinent questions.
I wish the U.S. understands the post-Cold War Asia-Pacific region better, we won’t have to dither around uncertain how to tackle the Myanmar crisis. Even with the experiences of the Korean War and the Vietnam War, the U.S. is still unable to recognize what kind of deterrence strategy works in Asia. Lacking in the understanding of Asian culture, history, ideology, inspiration and the world departure from unipolarity, Hillary Clinton keeps using pressure as foreign policy instrument instead of diplomatic engagement.
The emergence of the Asia-Pacific Century demands the U.S. to conduct its foreign policy like a Great Power not an ordinary country. U.S. power has been shaping the contour of world politics toward peace and prosperity, under Hillary Clinton I simply don’t see that.
Unfortunately, the situation has become more severe. As Supinya Klanaron stated in a recent interview with absolutelybangkok, “By creating a climate of fear and at the same time remaining open, the government doesn’t (sic) try to control too much.” And Pravit stated in The Nation (12 Jan.), “This politics of ultra-royalism will restrict even further the already near-non-existent public space that is critical of the royal institution. Unrealistic expectations will likely result, and Thai democracy will frall deeper into the black hole of anti-democratic language and intolerance.”
Defying the King might not be covered in law books but the gravity of this kind of offense is indisputable. I don’t even want to argue this.
Re rangers – there was a case of missing guns, as real as anything reported in the media, and there were rumors of rangers coming to Bangkok to confront re-emerging PAD. The police would have done nothing, as they demonstrated at Central World incident some time earlier when pro-Thaksin thugs openly beaten up some protesters. Police was even suspected at organizing them themselves.
The army was not there to stop them and it couldn’t, without explicit orders.
I don’t know how important that consideration was to the coup makers.
The crescendo of the Thai political tension becomes increasingly unbearable progressing towards more confrontational, yet the Thai speakers in this panel represent only the status quo perspectives.
Suchit Boonbongkarn is one of the Democrat Party executive member who has stated in public that he’s strongly against any change to the current military constitution. Suchit was selected to this talk plainly because he’s a teacher of the Thai Ambassador. As for Borwornsak Uwanno, even though he has integrity in his analysis, but his job is to maintain the status quo of the monarchy institution with resisting to any change. I wish Pridi Banomyong Institute’s professor were also invited to this talk.
The imbalance composition of the speakers has made it hard to expect much or to treat this talk with deference.
The issue with the forest rangers with the rifles is an inane issue from the start. The issue came up, and is still cited as supporting evidence for the need of a military coup. In reality – it is a non-issue.
There is no hard evidence that those forest rangers were to be sent to Bangkok to attack the PAD. But even in the (unlikely) case that this would have been so, the army would hardly have needed to do a coup to stop them. As the movement of such a large group of armed people hardly goes unnoticed, the much better armed and trained soldiers could have stopped them on the way, and/or even in Bangkok. This is just one of many flimsy excuses by the coup group within the army to justify their grab for power.
Until today the coup is hotly disputed in the military, many officers have not then, and do not now support the coup, or the coup group. This inner army conflict is also not just along the lines of pro or contra Thaksin, but very much along army loyalty networks.
I apologize for going back a ways on this string of posts, but want to thank StanG for the point about Surayud’s grandfather rather than father.
For Chris Beale: In fact, I have been back through the clippings I have form the Bangkok Post and Nation and cannot find any mention of the guns and rangers before the coup. It is entirely possible that I missed it or failed to keep the story. Bangkok Post does not allow searching online back that far. Couldn’t turn up anything in the Nation, but not sure how good their search function is. I was reminded when going through the clippings that the post-coup reports were not of Newin (as you suggested) as culprit, but immediately after the coup the reports were of Yongyuth. Any tips on the pre-coup story would be appreciated.
StanG: At the time of the coup I naively saw it as a chance for a fresh start, a resetting of democracy.
Even when the coup installed interim government started to implement its policies, I stubbornly clung to my dislike of Thaksin as a justification for his ousting.
I even welcomed the Democrats having a chance to govern after the PPP/Samak ugly government, but its hard to keep the blinkers on when more pieces on the jigsaw keep getting filled in.
After 3 years, with the benefit of hindsight, you still cannot see that ousting Thaksin by military coup was wrong?
That aside, even IF there was a promise, surely that is between Thaksin & HMK, and everyone has the right to change their minds in any case.
I forget who are the trainers, jockeys and who is the horse, but I do know someone should have whispered in Kasit’s ear many months ago – he’s done more damage to the country than Thaksin ever did.
Nganadeeleg, for you the principle of “no coups” is very important, in Thailand, however, the principle of “the King cannot be defied” wins hands down, thought it’s obviously an uncomfortable choice to make.
Somsak, I don’t see how your anecdotes are immediately relevant, but, perhaps, a few years from now someone would write about royal interventions and mention that 2006 attempt to broker peace was unsuccessful.
In that light, we don’t know what promises were made in Hua Hin, we know what Thaksin said on TV a few hours later. In September we were only a few days away from PAD coming on the streets and accusing Thaksin of defying the King, and then Thaksin arguing that since he got 16 million votes he has the right to do whatever he wants.
That would have been a royal mess, pun unintended.
Thank you very much. I mailed you my address already. Please send the book to a reputable literary agent. I think this is something that should be read by a wider audience.
It is very difficult to say. The issues here are not just the Red/Yellow conflict, but conflicts within the military as well, which is not just split between Red and Yellow, but also along many different loyalty networks which , as far as i am aware of, are constantly fluctuating at the moment.
I do disagree though with the Issarn – Bangkok split. The problem is far more complex.
Thank you very much for the advice and your interest in my personal experiences. Once I read a short story about a very young German SS soldier conscripted from Eastern Europe who was captured by the Russians and jailed for almost five years after WW2 and later he spent many years hopelessly searching his lost parents all over Europe.
I almost cried at the end when he died from his old battle wounds at his mother’s place he just discovered, and after knowing that his father had just died a few days back looking for his lost son all over Europe too.
In year 2000 I was injured in a work-related accident and couldn’t work for almost two years. During that period I was sent to a psychologist after I violently yelled at my doctor a couple of times, and they later discovered that I had a serious PTSD related problems. It had been bottling up inside for too long.
To relieve that I had to write down my past and after a long 6 years I had an extremely strange and violent story of my early years as a young cadet in an army regiment and later as a boy soldier for almost two years by the Chinese border.
I print it as a fictional book form through a vanity press and sold it or give it away to the friends and relatives. Too much violence and I didn’t dare to make it out as a true story.
I could send a copy to you if you are interested to read my story. About 400 pages thick in a small font though, I have to warn you. My email address is [email protected] and if you email me any snail-mail address to reach you in Bangkok I will mail the book to you direct, pronto.
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Red Shirts at Surayud’s holiday paradise
Thank you Nick for your coverage of the event.
On TV during the night it looked somehow like a ” Look Thung ” Concert with performances until dawn, after the speeches addressing the crowd ended short after midnight.
The name of “Khao Yai Thieng” in Thai letters is not in the same way spelled as the well known Khao Yai NP, so am I right that the place has nothing to do with it, even if it’s location is close by ?
Interviews with Nick Nostitz
Thanks Nick.
It is indeed an extremely complex situation.
Wassana’s recent piece was to me the most alarming of all
“civil war” warnings.
At first when these started being tossed about – first by the PAD’s Sondhi declaring “civil war has started” – I discounted such talk as simply hot-headed political rhetoric’, but have grown increasingly alarmed as the situation continues deteriorating.
And you mentioned the possibility at the start of your excellent book – which I’ve passed on to a friend.
I pity those Thais sincerely trying to find a peaceful solution, and hope they succeed.
I’m interested that you too think there won’t be an Isaarn-Bangkok break – you’re probably correct :
just about everyone commenting here, except me, seems to discount this.
I’m simply worried by some alarming parrallels with eg. Yugoslavia’s break-up, and earlier civil wars in the West and Asia, which were both cause and effect of the triumph of capitalism and industrialisation. And that two decades ago, nobody would have thought Thailand’s far south would become anthing like as bad as now.
Also former PM Anand’s front-page warning, a few years ago, against Thailand breaking up along regional lines.
Mind you, after Suharto fell there were similiar dismal fears about Indonesia, which happily proved wrong.
Royal Thai Embassy sponsored event at SOAS
Suchit is not an executive member of the Democrat Party. He is a retired professor from the faculty of political science, Chulalongkorn University, and also attached to its ISIS. The foreign ministry has been sending him around to major countries in the past months in oder to explain Thai politics to foreign audiences. By the way, the Political Development Council is attached to Borwornsak’s King Prajadhipok Institute, and Borwornsak is also secretary-general of the PDC.
Red Shirts at Surayud’s holiday paradise
Thanks gonzo Nick.
“As long as I am alive, I will call for justice indefinitely,” asserted Mr Thaksin
I wonder if he has made a post-assasination video? How would a definitive call for justice read?
I saw “Sae Dang” signing away at a protest in September or thereabouts (http://photos-d.ak.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ak-snc1/hs269.snc1/9624_156355501825_763186825_3412623_3560897_n.jpg), and didn’t know who he was till now. I wonder if he has any sponsors this time around? (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Khattiya_Sawasdipol)
Abhisit’s definition of voluntary
I am occasionally guilty of simplistic reasoning, but beg to differ with StanG and Pharris on certain assumptions they appear to have made. The report of how great the repatriation went was from the Lao Foreign Ministry. And to compare living in a village to a lifetime of camp living is hyperbole at its worst. It is doubtful that refugees would face a lifetime in a camp, but at some date would be repatriated or relocated to another country. And it is faulty to reason that those are the only two alternatives or that somehow life in a village cannot be miserable for its entirety.
Reading today’s Ambassador John’s statement in the editorial and comments section of the Bangkok Post, he seems to politely put a better perspective on how the Thai authorities handled this issue. Given the even more extreme level of lack of transparency in Laos, ideas that somehow refugees “saw the light” and their emotional pendulum swung the other way is a vivid imagination at best. However, admittedly probably none of us was ever in those camps actually listening to the poor Hmong, so we can’t say from a primary source that what we are all arguing about is or is not true.
Abhisit’s definition of voluntary
Repatriated Hmong seems to be doing very well, far from being jailed and tortured, according to this report.
The score is:
Governments – 1
Human Rights groups – 0,
plus some yellow cards to those who accused both Thai and Lao governments of various forms of inhumanity.
Royal Thai Embassy sponsored event at SOAS
Susie Wong – For an event organised by the Royal Thai Government’s representatives in the UK, did you honestly expect anything more?
But, more interesting is that this talk is actually being hosted by the RTG at all. It is reassuring to see that the restrictions on free speech here are not embraced as wholeheartedly in Thailand’s foreign missions – despite the rather tame panel.
At least we can hope Giles Ungpakorn might turn up to ask some pertinent questions.
Selth on Burmese missiles
I wish the U.S. understands the post-Cold War Asia-Pacific region better, we won’t have to dither around uncertain how to tackle the Myanmar crisis. Even with the experiences of the Korean War and the Vietnam War, the U.S. is still unable to recognize what kind of deterrence strategy works in Asia. Lacking in the understanding of Asian culture, history, ideology, inspiration and the world departure from unipolarity, Hillary Clinton keeps using pressure as foreign policy instrument instead of diplomatic engagement.
The emergence of the Asia-Pacific Century demands the U.S. to conduct its foreign policy like a Great Power not an ordinary country. U.S. power has been shaping the contour of world politics toward peace and prosperity, under Hillary Clinton I simply don’t see that.
“A law that stifles talk in Thailand”
Unfortunately, the situation has become more severe. As Supinya Klanaron stated in a recent interview with absolutelybangkok, “By creating a climate of fear and at the same time remaining open, the government doesn’t (sic) try to control too much.” And Pravit stated in The Nation (12 Jan.), “This politics of ultra-royalism will restrict even further the already near-non-existent public space that is critical of the royal institution. Unrealistic expectations will likely result, and Thai democracy will frall deeper into the black hole of anti-democratic language and intolerance.”
Thaksin on Crown Prince Vajiralongkorn
Defying the King might not be covered in law books but the gravity of this kind of offense is indisputable. I don’t even want to argue this.
Re rangers – there was a case of missing guns, as real as anything reported in the media, and there were rumors of rangers coming to Bangkok to confront re-emerging PAD. The police would have done nothing, as they demonstrated at Central World incident some time earlier when pro-Thaksin thugs openly beaten up some protesters. Police was even suspected at organizing them themselves.
The army was not there to stop them and it couldn’t, without explicit orders.
I don’t know how important that consideration was to the coup makers.
“A law that stifles talk in Thailand”
More than 3 years on and, other than my opinions, what else has changed?
Royal Thai Embassy sponsored event at SOAS
The crescendo of the Thai political tension becomes increasingly unbearable progressing towards more confrontational, yet the Thai speakers in this panel represent only the status quo perspectives.
Suchit Boonbongkarn is one of the Democrat Party executive member who has stated in public that he’s strongly against any change to the current military constitution. Suchit was selected to this talk plainly because he’s a teacher of the Thai Ambassador. As for Borwornsak Uwanno, even though he has integrity in his analysis, but his job is to maintain the status quo of the monarchy institution with resisting to any change. I wish Pridi Banomyong Institute’s professor were also invited to this talk.
The imbalance composition of the speakers has made it hard to expect much or to treat this talk with deference.
Thaksin on Crown Prince Vajiralongkorn
“Ralph Kramden”:
The issue with the forest rangers with the rifles is an inane issue from the start. The issue came up, and is still cited as supporting evidence for the need of a military coup. In reality – it is a non-issue.
There is no hard evidence that those forest rangers were to be sent to Bangkok to attack the PAD. But even in the (unlikely) case that this would have been so, the army would hardly have needed to do a coup to stop them. As the movement of such a large group of armed people hardly goes unnoticed, the much better armed and trained soldiers could have stopped them on the way, and/or even in Bangkok. This is just one of many flimsy excuses by the coup group within the army to justify their grab for power.
Until today the coup is hotly disputed in the military, many officers have not then, and do not now support the coup, or the coup group. This inner army conflict is also not just along the lines of pro or contra Thaksin, but very much along army loyalty networks.
Thaksin on Crown Prince Vajiralongkorn
I apologize for going back a ways on this string of posts, but want to thank StanG for the point about Surayud’s grandfather rather than father.
For Chris Beale: In fact, I have been back through the clippings I have form the Bangkok Post and Nation and cannot find any mention of the guns and rangers before the coup. It is entirely possible that I missed it or failed to keep the story. Bangkok Post does not allow searching online back that far. Couldn’t turn up anything in the Nation, but not sure how good their search function is. I was reminded when going through the clippings that the post-coup reports were not of Newin (as you suggested) as culprit, but immediately after the coup the reports were of Yongyuth. Any tips on the pre-coup story would be appreciated.
Thaksin on Crown Prince Vajiralongkorn
StanG: At the time of the coup I naively saw it as a chance for a fresh start, a resetting of democracy.
Even when the coup installed interim government started to implement its policies, I stubbornly clung to my dislike of Thaksin as a justification for his ousting.
I even welcomed the Democrats having a chance to govern after the PPP/Samak ugly government, but its hard to keep the blinkers on when more pieces on the jigsaw keep getting filled in.
After 3 years, with the benefit of hindsight, you still cannot see that ousting Thaksin by military coup was wrong?
That aside, even IF there was a promise, surely that is between Thaksin & HMK, and everyone has the right to change their minds in any case.
I forget who are the trainers, jockeys and who is the horse, but I do know someone should have whispered in Kasit’s ear many months ago – he’s done more damage to the country than Thaksin ever did.
Thaksin on Crown Prince Vajiralongkorn
StanG: Allegedly defying someone!
That is not illegall, so shouldn’t the people (electorate) be the ones who decide whats more important?
Thaksin on Crown Prince Vajiralongkorn
Nganadeeleg, for you the principle of “no coups” is very important, in Thailand, however, the principle of “the King cannot be defied” wins hands down, thought it’s obviously an uncomfortable choice to make.
Somsak, I don’t see how your anecdotes are immediately relevant, but, perhaps, a few years from now someone would write about royal interventions and mention that 2006 attempt to broker peace was unsuccessful.
In that light, we don’t know what promises were made in Hua Hin, we know what Thaksin said on TV a few hours later. In September we were only a few days away from PAD coming on the streets and accusing Thaksin of defying the King, and then Thaksin arguing that since he got 16 million votes he has the right to do whatever he wants.
That would have been a royal mess, pun unintended.
China and the Wa
“Hla Oo”:
Thank you very much. I mailed you my address already. Please send the book to a reputable literary agent. I think this is something that should be read by a wider audience.
Interviews with Nick Nostitz
“Chris Beale”:
It is very difficult to say. The issues here are not just the Red/Yellow conflict, but conflicts within the military as well, which is not just split between Red and Yellow, but also along many different loyalty networks which , as far as i am aware of, are constantly fluctuating at the moment.
I do disagree though with the Issarn – Bangkok split. The problem is far more complex.
China and the Wa
Dear Nick,
Thank you very much for the advice and your interest in my personal experiences. Once I read a short story about a very young German SS soldier conscripted from Eastern Europe who was captured by the Russians and jailed for almost five years after WW2 and later he spent many years hopelessly searching his lost parents all over Europe.
I almost cried at the end when he died from his old battle wounds at his mother’s place he just discovered, and after knowing that his father had just died a few days back looking for his lost son all over Europe too.
In year 2000 I was injured in a work-related accident and couldn’t work for almost two years. During that period I was sent to a psychologist after I violently yelled at my doctor a couple of times, and they later discovered that I had a serious PTSD related problems. It had been bottling up inside for too long.
To relieve that I had to write down my past and after a long 6 years I had an extremely strange and violent story of my early years as a young cadet in an army regiment and later as a boy soldier for almost two years by the Chinese border.
I print it as a fictional book form through a vanity press and sold it or give it away to the friends and relatives. Too much violence and I didn’t dare to make it out as a true story.
I could send a copy to you if you are interested to read my story. About 400 pages thick in a small font though, I have to warn you. My email address is [email protected] and if you email me any snail-mail address to reach you in Bangkok I will mail the book to you direct, pronto.