[…] the announcement was made but no detailed plan on how this is to be achieved has been provided (read here). Najib has, no doubt, introduced several measures to liberalise the Malaysian economy. However, […]
What’s fake about it exactly? Stan here’s a newsflash: just because you don’t agree with someone’s opinions that doesn’t make those opinions insincere.
Comparing Jatuporn to Gobbels is at best bloody silly. Not to you of course, in your so-interesting parrallel reality, but to many less rabid than yourself.
I can only say what i have seen during my brief visit there a few years ago (which has impressed me in many ways). I found that the peace agreement was very much to the advantage of Wa State. I was told that Burmese needed to ask for official permission before entering Wa State, that their state was run almost like an independent country, only nominally part of Burma. I saw no presence of Tatmadaw, only Wa soldiers.
The ethnic Wa themselves indeed are dark skinned, and often lived in dire poverty, the whole state was inhabited by a multitude of ethnic minorities. The leadership was mostly ethnic Chinese, but there were Shan as well, and whoever else.
An old ethnic Shan district commander there told me many stories of his wild life of fighting. While he was fighting for the Communists he said that during the 70’s they had huge difficulties to persuade the Wa tribes to stop their ritual head hunts at harvest time.
I am in no way any sort of specialist or expert in Burmese or Wa affairs though.
The fact that the SPDC has repeatedly reset the deadline for agreement with the Border Guard Force transformation (first Oct. 31, then Dec. 31, and now open-ended) suggests that it does not see a Tatmadaw military victory as a simple or (under current conditions) desirable outcome. Although, with Than Shwe’s visit to Sri Lanka last year, a scenario along the lines of the final May 2009 defeat of the Tamil Tigers must seem awfully attractive.
Moe Aung, Wa are not Chinese at all. They are brown-skinned people like we Burmese. That was what I saw thirty years ago. I don’t know about them now after the Chinese influx from China as Nick Nostitz has said.
I even once met a Wa girl on the border who looked exactly like one of my dear cousins back from the delta. You could easily pick out a dark-skinned Wa from among fair-skinned Shans or Kachins.
Their animist practices are quite similar to our Nat traditions too. I’ve even been told they are a lost tribe of old Burmans and I seriously agree with that.
Whilst it’s true that the Wa (their leaders at least as with many other ceasefire groups) have voluntarily sold their collective soul to the devil, and you may say the same happened after the New Year Day invasion of 1968 led by Naw Seng, I’m with Nick here.
I reckon the junta is very likely about to bite off more than they can chew, and I suspect they are having second thoughts. The Wa are not Thai, and I’m not sure where Hla Oo got the idea that the Kokang Shans (Shans whereas the Wa are Chinese?) are more powerful. Perhaps it’s the historic Ka Kwe Yay connection with Ne Win’s Tatmadaw before.
Hla Oo ‘s optimism and attitude to the ethnic insurgencies say more about the durability of his Tatmadaw indoctrination and sympathies than the reality on the ground. His personal experience of fighting against the Wa, and yes, some Chinese ‘contingent’ with the CPB, has naturally coloured his views. He probably believed most of what his officers told him just as the troops believed the students they gunned down in the streets of Yangon were communists.
Satti: I recall that students at Duntroon complete both military and academic training. It is a long time ago, and my memory of it is not all that good, but I seem to remember that the passing out parade was not the equivalent of having graduated from Duntroon. Maybe others have some news clippings from the time. He went on to SAS training in Perth, and that was cut short.
Only a handful of experts are knowledgeable about the esoteric world of Prachatipok and the Axis, when the matter is serious. Prachatipok met Emperor Hirohito in 1931 (1932). Pracahtipok met with Hitler in 1933. In 1934, Prachatipok again met with the Foreign Minister of Germany Konstantin von Neurath who was found guilty on crimes against humanity at Nurenberg in 1946.
Who made possible for Japan to station some 150,000 troops in Thailand and built the infamous “death railway”? This is a huge number of troops especially in the 1940s. Could they just march in without earlier arrangement?
Fast forward to the present time, Vachiralongkorn made frequent flight to Germany. The current Foreign Minister of Thailand was the ambassador to Germany and Japan before this ministerial post.
Last month, PAD key leaders went to Egypt for holidays. The 9/11 militants came from Egypt. They were engineering students in Germany before the 9/11 bombings in the U.S.
Could all these events be random phenomena or actions that maneuver toward a certain objective.
Apart from fleeing en-mass into neighboring China they clearly have only two choices. Either folding into Burmese demands or fight.
Fighting without a jungle cover against much stronger and better organized enemy already encircling them is almost like digging their own graves. Even more powerful Kokang Shans have to flee into China rather than fight back against the army.
Wa have voluntarily sold their collective soul to the devil and now what they are doing is trying to tear up the contract after willfully enjoying more than twenty years of peace and prosperity under the protection of Burmese army, the devils incarnate!
By the way, traditionally Burmese army do not need good roads to fight. They don’t use trucks and helicopters large scale like Thai soldiers do. They walk everywhere and that is the sole reason they have to use a large number of forced-labors or involuntary-porters.
I supposed that practice keeps their soldiers fit and healthy, ha ha.
It’s not true that the CP failed at Duntroon. His mother went to his passing-out parade. But he may have been conceded his grade by order of the Australian government. The Vietnam War was at its height. Australian troops were fighting there. Paramount to Canberra’s foreign policy at the time was securing non-communist allies in the “Near North.” The “Domino Theory” was widely believed. Australia was afraid that communism would spread through Malaysia and Indonesia via Thailand. It wanted to cement ties to Thais. What better way?
Susie’s anti-Japan comments can slip by yet again, but I want to ask her bout the facts in the first paragraph.
“the reason behind why Phumipon sided with Chatchai Choonhavan in the 1992 [Can you explain this? I am not sure what you mean with the 1992 date. Even if there was a 1992 siding with Chatichai in 1992, why then did he so easily push him aside in 1991 and support the coup makers?] . Chatchai’s father, Phin Choonhavan took part in Boworadet rebellion against the 1932 Coup d’etat group. Phumipon has a preference in favor of those supporting Boworadet rebellion. [I don’t know if Phin was one of the Boworadej conspirators. The king and court certainly exhibit a preference for those with no links to the 1932 People’s Party. You might also look at the fact the Phin’s coup brought significant benefits to royalists and the palace. Also, look at Chatichai’s position as ambassador in Geneva and his wife’s links to the palace for a personal spin.] The current privy councilor General Surayudh’s father also took part in Boworadet rebellion against the 1932 Coup d’etat group. That’s the main reason why Phumipon chose Surayudh as privy councilor. It’s not about about against military and for democracy. It is about consolidate Phumipon’s own power.” [Seems to me that there’s a problem here. Surayudh’s father was a member of the CPT. Do you mean grandfather? If so, I hadn’t heard of this before. Any publications on this?]
Like Srithanonchai (5), I often wonder if comment would serve any useful purpose. But the thought occurred that perhaps Chris Beale (4) is pulling our twine.
The CP attended Duntroon (Canberra) from his apartment in Sydney. He did not graduate. He failed. There’s no better recommendation than that, in my book.
Tench, Kavi’s line has done nothing to my memory of Nazi victims, and neither did people’s complains about it, but it’s the fake moral indignation to justify an attack on Kavi that does it.
There’s this emerging PC brigade that doesn’t allow any mention of Nazism or Hitler or connecting them to present day in any form because it allegedly trivializes their crimes and stomps on some sensitivities.
Ironically it comes from the same quarters that want free and open discussion on Thai monarchy, sensitivities be damned, and it comes from the same quarters that are the first to accuse others of double standards.
Susie, you are spot on when you suggest that the events of today should be viewed in their historical context.
However, I am not so certain this proves (or disproves) a move for consolidation of power on the part of the throne. More likely it is simply the system of patronage at work. If the father proved his loyalty to the throne, then it is certain that his children are more likely to be trusted and more likely to receive favour.
I am also not so sure that the sins of the father can be cast upon the son (or daughter). That Aung San collaborated with the Japanese is debatable, however, there is no evidence his daughter is continuing the trend. That Plaek collaborated with the Japanese is beyond doubt (he is buried there), yet his son seems to be a completely different kettle of fish and is held in high regard in Foreign Ministry circles. The jury is still out on the current Choonhavin.
Finally, I have trouble seeing how Phin was “serving Japan” by instigating a coup in 1947. Japan had not long surrendered and it is likely more important domestic issues were on their agenda at that time.
While not as blatant as the Philippines, oligarchy and the family are alive and well in Thailand, and you do well to point this out.
I am not a military strategist, but i think its not that easy. Wa state indeed has very little jungle left, but roads are some of the worst i have ever seen. Connectivity and infrastructure from other areas of Burma is extremely bad, and during the rain season almost impossible. At the same time China is just a little jump over the river away, even Chinese overland bus routes go through Wa state. Ethnic Chinese are well represented at the upper levels of the Wa leadership, most of the economy is connected to China and not to Burma, you see Chinese workers at road projects and construction sites. There are still former Red Guards that have remained in Wa state in many positions.
I can’t see the Wa just folding in to Burma’s demands.
Remote areas are no longer so remote as many newly-built roads, rail tracks, and bridges encroach previously inaccessible places by the border, and small villages before are now large towns.
Scarcely populated areas are fast becoming densely populated as many people from lowland, highland, or across the porous border have been constantly moving into the newly-cleared land.
These all spell the death knell for the Wa insurgency. No jungle means no rebellions and Wa have no excuses left for keeping their ragtag army anymore to guard their shrinking poppy fields and internationally-condemned Ya-Ba factories.
They have stopped fighting alongside the Burmese Communists and their Chinese masters since late eighties by knowing that their survival has depended upon the ceasefire agreement with the army.
Wa are just an insignificant hill-tribe quickly becoming an annoying thorn in the feet of Burmese army and without any significant Chinese support they will be crushed out of existence quickly.
Soon, they will be stepping in Burmese army uniforms under Burmese commands and into Burmese payrolls as many of their Kachin and Shan and Karen comrades have already been doing as newly-formed Burmese Border Guard Forces.
Moe Aung, you are probably right. In my opinion, China and India are big and mature enough to let Burmese generals have a couple or even more nuclear weapons.
The important geopolitical position Burma occupies also guarantee that India will leave Burma alone if her long time nemesis China do not seriously intervene in Burmese affairs, and vice-versa.
India was one of the main reasons Communist China did not stage a full-scale invasion during the long undeclared war of the seventies and eighties.
Only question is US and her position as the eager watchdog for non-proliferation of nuclear weapons so that no dirty bomb will fall into wrong hands.
But the shock-and-awe invasion of Iraq and public hanging of Sadam Hussein has basically changed the mindsets of many a dictators, especially our Than Shwe and Maung Aye. They are now in a hurry to lay their dirty hands on as many nukes as possible.
Having nukes in their hands could probably calm them down. The invasion paranoia started during the 8-8-88 uprising by the incursion of US carrier fleet into Gulf of Martaban and raised again by the visit of US fleet during the Nargis and later the visit of Gorge Bush to the border has a fearful effect on the generals and they are now seriously preparing for it.
Apart from the sudden and rapid relocation of capital to remote Nay-pyi-daw the army has also moved many divisional military commands previously situated on the coast-lines to much more secured inland positions.
Most prominent move was the relocation of important Western Divisional Command from Sitwe, the capital of Arakan State, to remote Ann almost at the base of Arakan-Yoma, far away from the porous border line with Bangladesh the Division is supposed to defend.
The army is definitely giving priority to the defense from a sea-born invasion than the internal affairs of effectively governing the people they rule or defending the borders.
The possession of nuclear weapons will definitely allay that fear of invasion but keep the region on a precariously unstable situation for a very long time to come as the army will be seriously entrenched into their positions, unfortunately for all of us in and out of Burma.
Always succinct Chris. I have no idea which post you refer to on Newin. I do recall asking if there were any claims of an arming of rangers that came out from a source other than the junta. Recall that most of these claims were made immediately post-coup – as you point out by citing the press 2-3 days after the coup – to justify the claim that they had to act to avoid bloodshed between an alleged force of forest rangers and PAD. Given that there was control of the media and that there has been no non-junta sources ever provided, then this junta claim remains a claim.
On facts, usually one looks for independent verification.
Not quite sure what a common monarchy is supposed to be as opposed to something else, but the idea of a break-away at this point is sheer tomfoolery at best. There is disenfranchisement, and that will never go away and with good reason, but the only break-away action that stands a chance of happening is mass protests and possible violent incidents at scattered places. In the past the Isaan people and activists have always been stopped, when they “needed” to be, by police and military from even entering Bangkok.
No, Isaan will never break away. The south has a better chance of that and we can see how successful it has proven to date – nil.
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Malaysia’s economic future
[…] the announcement was made but no detailed plan on how this is to be achieved has been provided (read here). Najib has, no doubt, introduced several measures to liberalise the Malaysian economy. However, […]
The sum of all fears
Stan G: “fake moral indignation”
What’s fake about it exactly? Stan here’s a newsflash: just because you don’t agree with someone’s opinions that doesn’t make those opinions insincere.
Comparing Jatuporn to Gobbels is at best bloody silly. Not to you of course, in your so-interesting parrallel reality, but to many less rabid than yourself.
China and the Wa
“Hla Oo”:
I can only say what i have seen during my brief visit there a few years ago (which has impressed me in many ways). I found that the peace agreement was very much to the advantage of Wa State. I was told that Burmese needed to ask for official permission before entering Wa State, that their state was run almost like an independent country, only nominally part of Burma. I saw no presence of Tatmadaw, only Wa soldiers.
The ethnic Wa themselves indeed are dark skinned, and often lived in dire poverty, the whole state was inhabited by a multitude of ethnic minorities. The leadership was mostly ethnic Chinese, but there were Shan as well, and whoever else.
An old ethnic Shan district commander there told me many stories of his wild life of fighting. While he was fighting for the Communists he said that during the 70’s they had huge difficulties to persuade the Wa tribes to stop their ritual head hunts at harvest time.
I am in no way any sort of specialist or expert in Burmese or Wa affairs though.
China and the Wa
The fact that the SPDC has repeatedly reset the deadline for agreement with the Border Guard Force transformation (first Oct. 31, then Dec. 31, and now open-ended) suggests that it does not see a Tatmadaw military victory as a simple or (under current conditions) desirable outcome. Although, with Than Shwe’s visit to Sri Lanka last year, a scenario along the lines of the final May 2009 defeat of the Tamil Tigers must seem awfully attractive.
China and the Wa
“Wa are Chinese?”
Moe Aung, Wa are not Chinese at all. They are brown-skinned people like we Burmese. That was what I saw thirty years ago. I don’t know about them now after the Chinese influx from China as Nick Nostitz has said.
I even once met a Wa girl on the border who looked exactly like one of my dear cousins back from the delta. You could easily pick out a dark-skinned Wa from among fair-skinned Shans or Kachins.
Their animist practices are quite similar to our Nat traditions too. I’ve even been told they are a lost tribe of old Burmans and I seriously agree with that.
China and the Wa
Whilst it’s true that the Wa (their leaders at least as with many other ceasefire groups) have voluntarily sold their collective soul to the devil, and you may say the same happened after the New Year Day invasion of 1968 led by Naw Seng, I’m with Nick here.
I reckon the junta is very likely about to bite off more than they can chew, and I suspect they are having second thoughts. The Wa are not Thai, and I’m not sure where Hla Oo got the idea that the Kokang Shans (Shans whereas the Wa are Chinese?) are more powerful. Perhaps it’s the historic Ka Kwe Yay connection with Ne Win’s Tatmadaw before.
Hla Oo ‘s optimism and attitude to the ethnic insurgencies say more about the durability of his Tatmadaw indoctrination and sympathies than the reality on the ground. His personal experience of fighting against the Wa, and yes, some Chinese ‘contingent’ with the CPB, has naturally coloured his views. He probably believed most of what his officers told him just as the troops believed the students they gunned down in the streets of Yangon were communists.
Bangkok Post on the crown prince
Satti: I recall that students at Duntroon complete both military and academic training. It is a long time ago, and my memory of it is not all that good, but I seem to remember that the passing out parade was not the equivalent of having graduated from Duntroon. Maybe others have some news clippings from the time. He went on to SAS training in Perth, and that was cut short.
New year wishes from …
Only a handful of experts are knowledgeable about the esoteric world of Prachatipok and the Axis, when the matter is serious. Prachatipok met Emperor Hirohito in 1931 (1932). Pracahtipok met with Hitler in 1933. In 1934, Prachatipok again met with the Foreign Minister of Germany Konstantin von Neurath who was found guilty on crimes against humanity at Nurenberg in 1946.
Who made possible for Japan to station some 150,000 troops in Thailand and built the infamous “death railway”? This is a huge number of troops especially in the 1940s. Could they just march in without earlier arrangement?
Fast forward to the present time, Vachiralongkorn made frequent flight to Germany. The current Foreign Minister of Thailand was the ambassador to Germany and Japan before this ministerial post.
Last month, PAD key leaders went to Egypt for holidays. The 9/11 militants came from Egypt. They were engineering students in Germany before the 9/11 bombings in the U.S.
Could all these events be random phenomena or actions that maneuver toward a certain objective.
China and the Wa
Eventually they will, dear Mr Nostitz.
Apart from fleeing en-mass into neighboring China they clearly have only two choices. Either folding into Burmese demands or fight.
Fighting without a jungle cover against much stronger and better organized enemy already encircling them is almost like digging their own graves. Even more powerful Kokang Shans have to flee into China rather than fight back against the army.
Wa have voluntarily sold their collective soul to the devil and now what they are doing is trying to tear up the contract after willfully enjoying more than twenty years of peace and prosperity under the protection of Burmese army, the devils incarnate!
By the way, traditionally Burmese army do not need good roads to fight. They don’t use trucks and helicopters large scale like Thai soldiers do. They walk everywhere and that is the sole reason they have to use a large number of forced-labors or involuntary-porters.
I supposed that practice keeps their soldiers fit and healthy, ha ha.
Bangkok Post on the crown prince
It’s not true that the CP failed at Duntroon. His mother went to his passing-out parade. But he may have been conceded his grade by order of the Australian government. The Vietnam War was at its height. Australian troops were fighting there. Paramount to Canberra’s foreign policy at the time was securing non-communist allies in the “Near North.” The “Domino Theory” was widely believed. Australia was afraid that communism would spread through Malaysia and Indonesia via Thailand. It wanted to cement ties to Thais. What better way?
Thaksin on Crown Prince Vajiralongkorn
Susie’s anti-Japan comments can slip by yet again, but I want to ask her bout the facts in the first paragraph.
“the reason behind why Phumipon sided with Chatchai Choonhavan in the 1992 [Can you explain this? I am not sure what you mean with the 1992 date. Even if there was a 1992 siding with Chatichai in 1992, why then did he so easily push him aside in 1991 and support the coup makers?] . Chatchai’s father, Phin Choonhavan took part in Boworadet rebellion against the 1932 Coup d’etat group. Phumipon has a preference in favor of those supporting Boworadet rebellion. [I don’t know if Phin was one of the Boworadej conspirators. The king and court certainly exhibit a preference for those with no links to the 1932 People’s Party. You might also look at the fact the Phin’s coup brought significant benefits to royalists and the palace. Also, look at Chatichai’s position as ambassador in Geneva and his wife’s links to the palace for a personal spin.] The current privy councilor General Surayudh’s father also took part in Boworadet rebellion against the 1932 Coup d’etat group. That’s the main reason why Phumipon chose Surayudh as privy councilor. It’s not about about against military and for democracy. It is about consolidate Phumipon’s own power.” [Seems to me that there’s a problem here. Surayudh’s father was a member of the CPT. Do you mean grandfather? If so, I hadn’t heard of this before. Any publications on this?]
Bangkok Post on the crown prince
Like Srithanonchai (5), I often wonder if comment would serve any useful purpose. But the thought occurred that perhaps Chris Beale (4) is pulling our twine.
The CP attended Duntroon (Canberra) from his apartment in Sydney. He did not graduate. He failed. There’s no better recommendation than that, in my book.
The sum of all fears
Tench, Kavi’s line has done nothing to my memory of Nazi victims, and neither did people’s complains about it, but it’s the fake moral indignation to justify an attack on Kavi that does it.
There’s this emerging PC brigade that doesn’t allow any mention of Nazism or Hitler or connecting them to present day in any form because it allegedly trivializes their crimes and stomps on some sensitivities.
Ironically it comes from the same quarters that want free and open discussion on Thai monarchy, sensitivities be damned, and it comes from the same quarters that are the first to accuse others of double standards.
Thaksin on Crown Prince Vajiralongkorn
Susie, you are spot on when you suggest that the events of today should be viewed in their historical context.
However, I am not so certain this proves (or disproves) a move for consolidation of power on the part of the throne. More likely it is simply the system of patronage at work. If the father proved his loyalty to the throne, then it is certain that his children are more likely to be trusted and more likely to receive favour.
I am also not so sure that the sins of the father can be cast upon the son (or daughter). That Aung San collaborated with the Japanese is debatable, however, there is no evidence his daughter is continuing the trend. That Plaek collaborated with the Japanese is beyond doubt (he is buried there), yet his son seems to be a completely different kettle of fish and is held in high regard in Foreign Ministry circles. The jury is still out on the current Choonhavin.
Finally, I have trouble seeing how Phin was “serving Japan” by instigating a coup in 1947. Japan had not long surrendered and it is likely more important domestic issues were on their agenda at that time.
While not as blatant as the Philippines, oligarchy and the family are alive and well in Thailand, and you do well to point this out.
China and the Wa
“Hla Oo”:
I am not a military strategist, but i think its not that easy. Wa state indeed has very little jungle left, but roads are some of the worst i have ever seen. Connectivity and infrastructure from other areas of Burma is extremely bad, and during the rain season almost impossible. At the same time China is just a little jump over the river away, even Chinese overland bus routes go through Wa state. Ethnic Chinese are well represented at the upper levels of the Wa leadership, most of the economy is connected to China and not to Burma, you see Chinese workers at road projects and construction sites. There are still former Red Guards that have remained in Wa state in many positions.
I can’t see the Wa just folding in to Burma’s demands.
China and the Wa
Thanks Hla Oo for reminding me why I support those insignificant hill-tribes.
China and the Wa
The forest are gone and the jungle is cleared.
Remote areas are no longer so remote as many newly-built roads, rail tracks, and bridges encroach previously inaccessible places by the border, and small villages before are now large towns.
Scarcely populated areas are fast becoming densely populated as many people from lowland, highland, or across the porous border have been constantly moving into the newly-cleared land.
These all spell the death knell for the Wa insurgency. No jungle means no rebellions and Wa have no excuses left for keeping their ragtag army anymore to guard their shrinking poppy fields and internationally-condemned Ya-Ba factories.
They have stopped fighting alongside the Burmese Communists and their Chinese masters since late eighties by knowing that their survival has depended upon the ceasefire agreement with the army.
Wa are just an insignificant hill-tribe quickly becoming an annoying thorn in the feet of Burmese army and without any significant Chinese support they will be crushed out of existence quickly.
Soon, they will be stepping in Burmese army uniforms under Burmese commands and into Burmese payrolls as many of their Kachin and Shan and Karen comrades have already been doing as newly-formed Burmese Border Guard Forces.
Al Jazeera on Burma’s nukes
Moe Aung, you are probably right. In my opinion, China and India are big and mature enough to let Burmese generals have a couple or even more nuclear weapons.
The important geopolitical position Burma occupies also guarantee that India will leave Burma alone if her long time nemesis China do not seriously intervene in Burmese affairs, and vice-versa.
India was one of the main reasons Communist China did not stage a full-scale invasion during the long undeclared war of the seventies and eighties.
Only question is US and her position as the eager watchdog for non-proliferation of nuclear weapons so that no dirty bomb will fall into wrong hands.
But the shock-and-awe invasion of Iraq and public hanging of Sadam Hussein has basically changed the mindsets of many a dictators, especially our Than Shwe and Maung Aye. They are now in a hurry to lay their dirty hands on as many nukes as possible.
Having nukes in their hands could probably calm them down. The invasion paranoia started during the 8-8-88 uprising by the incursion of US carrier fleet into Gulf of Martaban and raised again by the visit of US fleet during the Nargis and later the visit of Gorge Bush to the border has a fearful effect on the generals and they are now seriously preparing for it.
Apart from the sudden and rapid relocation of capital to remote Nay-pyi-daw the army has also moved many divisional military commands previously situated on the coast-lines to much more secured inland positions.
Most prominent move was the relocation of important Western Divisional Command from Sitwe, the capital of Arakan State, to remote Ann almost at the base of Arakan-Yoma, far away from the porous border line with Bangladesh the Division is supposed to defend.
The army is definitely giving priority to the defense from a sea-born invasion than the internal affairs of effectively governing the people they rule or defending the borders.
The possession of nuclear weapons will definitely allay that fear of invasion but keep the region on a precariously unstable situation for a very long time to come as the army will be seriously entrenched into their positions, unfortunately for all of us in and out of Burma.
We won’t be going home soonish, Moe Aung!
Thaksin on Crown Prince Vajiralongkorn
Always succinct Chris. I have no idea which post you refer to on Newin. I do recall asking if there were any claims of an arming of rangers that came out from a source other than the junta. Recall that most of these claims were made immediately post-coup – as you point out by citing the press 2-3 days after the coup – to justify the claim that they had to act to avoid bloodshed between an alleged force of forest rangers and PAD. Given that there was control of the media and that there has been no non-junta sources ever provided, then this junta claim remains a claim.
On facts, usually one looks for independent verification.
Thailand’s crown prince
Not quite sure what a common monarchy is supposed to be as opposed to something else, but the idea of a break-away at this point is sheer tomfoolery at best. There is disenfranchisement, and that will never go away and with good reason, but the only break-away action that stands a chance of happening is mass protests and possible violent incidents at scattered places. In the past the Isaan people and activists have always been stopped, when they “needed” to be, by police and military from even entering Bangkok.
No, Isaan will never break away. The south has a better chance of that and we can see how successful it has proven to date – nil.