Srithanonchai’s comments strike me as the best of those above.
It’s is pretty unfair to criticise Baker and Pasuk for treading carefully on the issue of Crown wealth – and there’s also the difficulty of how much accurate information is available. Though I’m sure foreign intelligence agencies, especially the United States, have almost ALL details. That the Economist was able to fire such a direct shot across the Thai Royal bar, so soon after British Airways lost millions due to the Suvarnabhumi closure, suggest British inbtelligence may release a whole lot more should such a silly episode happen again.
But let’s return to Srithanochai’s point. He’s indeed correct. This struggle between “the rich and the poor”, and “populist policies
for the poor” is less and less seen as simply such by the poor
themselves. It is increasingly seen as the poor Isaarn Lao, and the Lanna, against the richer “Thai”. Their consciousness is increasingly class ethnic incipient break-away nationalist, not simply class. Apart from their allegiance to Peua Thai, and “red shirt”, their most burning identity is their region – especially Isaarn, now almost a nation in-itself, and for itself.
Only in Pasuk’s failure to grasp this, can she be seen as a functionary.
His Royal Highness is well-prepared, and will probably make a good king – perhaps even a great one.
But it’s one of the world’s toughest jobs.
After all, who could have guessed that when Bumiphol ascended the throne, in very difficult circumstances, that this young man would become the undoubtedly great king that He has turned out to be.
Handley pays too much attention to rumours re. The Crown Prince – and does n’t give sufficient weight to the fact this sort of thing is par-for-the-course political jockeying in Thailand.
Indeed Handley stretches credulity on the rumour front.
His Royal Highness studied and trained in Australia – there’s no better recommendation than that, in my book.
Nick – that’s a pretty pessimistic anlaysis you post there, which seems to suggest that the now extremely violent stalemate will continue until either the Islamists give up (unlikely), or the already deep fractures within the Thai state fracture further.
The Thai state is currently fractured, but far from broken.
Abhisit did propose limited autonomy within the Kingdom – do you think his seeming reversal on this :
a) simply party politics – i.e. if the other side proposes a City Pattaya solution, I’ll oppose i t to differentiate my political product ?
b) Abhisit is retreating under pressure from the military and others ?
c) or is it tactics by Abhisit, and those within the Palace and military who back him – i.e. that they may be willing to allow
some limited autonomy, but want to keep that card close to their chests until appropiate negotiations commence ?
Whatever – it’s an appalling situation, in which yet again it’s the hard-working, struggling, peaceful pu noi who suffer the most.
In a civil war or any other war the local civilians greatly suffer. No doubt about that. It doesn’t really matter which side they belong to. They just want the warring armies to go away and leave them in peace.
When their sufferings become really unbearable they start to take the side of the possible winner, hoping the war should be over soon with their help.
That was what happened with the KNDO in the Irrawaddy Delta in the early seventies and now happening on the border with Thailand. Slowly the Karen people are turning against their supposedly protectors, KNU/KNLA, and the war will soon be over.
Interesting thing about that Chengdu Military Region is that it used to be called the South-Western Army of PLA many years ago. The troops from that army were heavily involved in long years of brutal war against Burmese Army in the seventy’s and eighty’s.
But since the ninety’s and up to now, that army has been serving as a transit point and also a conduit for massive arms delivery into Burma after Burmese Army purchased more than three billion dollars worth of arms from China.
PLA must have been reorganized and the Chengdu Military Region is now a military administrative command for the southwest regions of China, covering Chongqing, Sichuan, Yunnan, Guizhou, and the Xizang/Tibet Autonomous Region. It has 180,000 regular troops and many more irregular troops as militia, military police, and labor brigades.
Just a couple of weeks ago its Chief-of-Staff Ai Husheng was in Burma meeting the generals during a friendly visit prior to the last weekend visit of Chinese Vice President Xi Jinping.
Chinese troops must be watching across the border, but I don’t think they are spoiling for fight, yet.
“Chinese volunteers, thousands of whom had made up the bulk of the Communist Party of Burma’s People’s Army during its 1968-79 heydays”
A rather dubious claim since thousands of Wa fighters actually made up the bulk of CPB troops, unless they want to maintain that the Wa involved were Chinese nationals and not Burmese. A pretty moot point since these people live on both sides of the border ( Mao first met these erstwhile headhunters in his Long March to Yenan). Only a sprinkling of Han Chinese volunteers in leadership positions, such as Lin Mingxian and Li Ziru, were mentioned in Bertil Lintner’s books on the CPB.
Example : PAD close 2 international airport and get charge with Terrorist act. PAD was support by Thai queen royal family so charge was drop and nothing happened.
I ask what is your opinion about this. Justice is not serve in Thai?
Just keep your mouth shut while you are in Thailand. Only one place in the world that Royal family had law to protect them form criticized and sue. Not all of Thai people love royal family, recent Military coup in 2006 make it clear, who is big and important in Thai no matter how many people love you will be kick out of country or go in jail so easily.
At first its claim that “Survivors of the Chinese volunteers, thousands of whom had made up the bulk of the Communist Party of Burma’s People’s Army during its 1968-79 heydays are regrouping and discussing ways to assist the ex-CPB ceasefire groups that have refused to bow down to Naypyitaw’s Border Guard Force (BGF) program, says a confidential document recently received by SHAN” seems potentially plausible.
But the plausibility of the source document comes into question, at least for me, when it claims that “some 80% of troops in Chengdu Military Region, responsible for security in five provinces including Yunnan, Guizhou, Sichuan and Guangxi are ‘spoiling for a fight.'”
I’ve read Utusan Malaysia countless of times, from my opinion, its no difference from Sin Chew or any of the Chinese newspaper in M’sia, just different viewpoint.
Agreed that one doesn’t have to be impressed by someone working for FEER, but Chris Beale’s implicit assertion is wrong. Handley was writing for the Review as far back as 1986, and considered Bowring a mentor. Handley was in no way associated with the Dow Jones-Americans to whom Beale is referring.
Chris Beale said: I would n’t be too impressed by Handley having worked for the FEER. At the time of May’92, FEER had just sacked
Philip Bowring – a born Asia expert of the highest calibre – to be replaced by a virtually unknown Chicago Republican, who had no Asia experience.
“If after autonomy, the violence doesn’t stop, then what?”
Simple, then the new Muslim power holders will have to deal with it themselves, i.e. without the help of the Thai Army, budget, etc. It will be “their” business. However, this might not be what the proponents of the autonomy proposal have in mind.
There are a few problems with the demands for autonomy, not least of all that the Thai state under the current system will most definitely not agree with autonomy as it touches one of its core pillars – the integrity of the nation. Also the by you seemingly admired Abhisit seems to be now against autonomy (since Chavalit came up with his Pattaya City idea).
Secondly, in the area is a large minority of Buddhists, many of them lived in the area for several hundred years (others are more recent settlers, though no statistic is available over this issue). Furthermore there are many Muslims that do not agree with the insurgency, and fight on the side of the Thai state against the insurgents, organized in the Chor Lor Bor.
Even if the unlikely case might happen and the Thai state might one day deliberate some form of autonomy, it would need the insurgents to assure the security and religious/cultural freedom of the Buddhist minority in the area. So far, from all we can see, one of the insurgents aims is not just their nationalist struggle, but also to get rid of the Buddhists, and to introduce a orthodox form of Islam there. Lets not forget – both sides are victims and perpetrators at the same time, both sides don’t exactly strictly observe human rights in this dirty war.
Simply demanding autonomy is easy, the difficult part is how the necessary compromises between so far radically opposed positions can be achieved. Which would be the minimum requirement for any form of autonomy.
I agree wih Somsak that Pasuk’s rhetoric of “rich and poor” can obscure a lot. It’s not, in my opinion, that “rich and poor” doesn’t matter, but to me Pasuk never presents a convincing analysis of what causes “rich and poor.” Being a middle-of-the-road social democrat, she doesn’t seem to think that basic dynamics of capitalism are at stake here–she rarely uses the word “capitalism”–and she doesn’t talk about class, which doesn’t mean exactly the same thing as “rich and poor.” She interprets the smaller disparities in income distribution of some countries as evidence that they “value equity”–what does it mean to say a country values equity?–rather than as the outcomes of social struggles over distribution. (Does the United States have less disparity than Thailand because “the United States values equity”–and does this even make any sense–or because successful struggles by labor in the past resulted in some redistribution, while more recent successful struggles by capitalists have increased disparity again?) Avoiding discussion of class struggle and substituting this kind of feel-good moral rhetoric makes it sound like all Thailand needs is for every Thai to magically “value equity,” rather than for poorer people in Thailand to continue struggling–as many of them are now through the Red Shirt movement–to improve their lot. And no, she doesn’t mention the monarchy. How can one fail to do this in a discussion of income distribution when the Crown Property Bureau is far and away the richest crony capitalist organization in the country–with untaxed wealth that puts Thaksin, the obssession of Pasuk and Chris Baker’s newly revised book, to shame.
Fair’s fair – Pasuk on Thailand in transition
Srithanonchai’s comments strike me as the best of those above.
It’s is pretty unfair to criticise Baker and Pasuk for treading carefully on the issue of Crown wealth – and there’s also the difficulty of how much accurate information is available. Though I’m sure foreign intelligence agencies, especially the United States, have almost ALL details. That the Economist was able to fire such a direct shot across the Thai Royal bar, so soon after British Airways lost millions due to the Suvarnabhumi closure, suggest British inbtelligence may release a whole lot more should such a silly episode happen again.
But let’s return to Srithanochai’s point. He’s indeed correct. This struggle between “the rich and the poor”, and “populist policies
for the poor” is less and less seen as simply such by the poor
themselves. It is increasingly seen as the poor Isaarn Lao, and the Lanna, against the richer “Thai”. Their consciousness is increasingly class ethnic incipient break-away nationalist, not simply class. Apart from their allegiance to Peua Thai, and “red shirt”, their most burning identity is their region – especially Isaarn, now almost a nation in-itself, and for itself.
Only in Pasuk’s failure to grasp this, can she be seen as a functionary.
Bangkok Post on the crown prince
Sometimes, one is tempted to respond on a comment. But then the feeling prevails that it is as hopeless as it is useless…
Bangkok Post on the crown prince
His Royal Highness is well-prepared, and will probably make a good king – perhaps even a great one.
But it’s one of the world’s toughest jobs.
After all, who could have guessed that when Bumiphol ascended the throne, in very difficult circumstances, that this young man would become the undoubtedly great king that He has turned out to be.
Handley pays too much attention to rumours re. The Crown Prince – and does n’t give sufficient weight to the fact this sort of thing is par-for-the-course political jockeying in Thailand.
Indeed Handley stretches credulity on the rumour front.
His Royal Highness studied and trained in Australia – there’s no better recommendation than that, in my book.
What happens in Yala…
Nick – that’s a pretty pessimistic anlaysis you post there, which seems to suggest that the now extremely violent stalemate will continue until either the Islamists give up (unlikely), or the already deep fractures within the Thai state fracture further.
The Thai state is currently fractured, but far from broken.
Abhisit did propose limited autonomy within the Kingdom – do you think his seeming reversal on this :
a) simply party politics – i.e. if the other side proposes a City Pattaya solution, I’ll oppose i t to differentiate my political product ?
b) Abhisit is retreating under pressure from the military and others ?
c) or is it tactics by Abhisit, and those within the Palace and military who back him – i.e. that they may be willing to allow
some limited autonomy, but want to keep that card close to their chests until appropiate negotiations commence ?
Whatever – it’s an appalling situation, in which yet again it’s the hard-working, struggling, peaceful pu noi who suffer the most.
Thaksin on Crown Prince Vajiralongkorn
UnfaithfulReader – thank you for this information, which I did not know. I stand corrected and apologise to you and Handley.
Dave Everett and fighting for the KNLA
In a civil war or any other war the local civilians greatly suffer. No doubt about that. It doesn’t really matter which side they belong to. They just want the warring armies to go away and leave them in peace.
When their sufferings become really unbearable they start to take the side of the possible winner, hoping the war should be over soon with their help.
That was what happened with the KNDO in the Irrawaddy Delta in the early seventies and now happening on the border with Thailand. Slowly the Karen people are turning against their supposedly protectors, KNU/KNLA, and the war will soon be over.
Vietnam vets (PLA) to fight in Burma?
Interesting thing about that Chengdu Military Region is that it used to be called the South-Western Army of PLA many years ago. The troops from that army were heavily involved in long years of brutal war against Burmese Army in the seventy’s and eighty’s.
But since the ninety’s and up to now, that army has been serving as a transit point and also a conduit for massive arms delivery into Burma after Burmese Army purchased more than three billion dollars worth of arms from China.
PLA must have been reorganized and the Chengdu Military Region is now a military administrative command for the southwest regions of China, covering Chongqing, Sichuan, Yunnan, Guizhou, and the Xizang/Tibet Autonomous Region. It has 180,000 regular troops and many more irregular troops as militia, military police, and labor brigades.
Just a couple of weeks ago its Chief-of-Staff Ai Husheng was in Burma meeting the generals during a friendly visit prior to the last weekend visit of Chinese Vice President Xi Jinping.
Chinese troops must be watching across the border, but I don’t think they are spoiling for fight, yet.
Send a card to Da
[…] “Send a card to Da” and send an e- or real, carbon-based card to Khun Da. Remind her that she is not […]
Vietnam vets (PLA) to fight in Burma?
“Chinese volunteers, thousands of whom had made up the bulk of the Communist Party of Burma’s People’s Army during its 1968-79 heydays”
A rather dubious claim since thousands of Wa fighters actually made up the bulk of CPB troops, unless they want to maintain that the Wa involved were Chinese nationals and not Burmese. A pretty moot point since these people live on both sides of the border ( Mao first met these erstwhile headhunters in his Long March to Yenan). Only a sprinkling of Han Chinese volunteers in leadership positions, such as Lin Mingxian and Li Ziru, were mentioned in Bertil Lintner’s books on the CPB.
Thailand’s royal disgrace
Example : PAD close 2 international airport and get charge with Terrorist act. PAD was support by Thai queen royal family so charge was drop and nothing happened.
I ask what is your opinion about this. Justice is not serve in Thai?
Thailand’s royal disgrace
Just keep your mouth shut while you are in Thailand. Only one place in the world that Royal family had law to protect them form criticized and sue. Not all of Thai people love royal family, recent Military coup in 2006 make it clear, who is big and important in Thai no matter how many people love you will be kick out of country or go in jail so easily.
Vietnam vets (PLA) to fight in Burma?
Below is a link to another related article:
http://tiny.cc/CPBvets
At first its claim that “Survivors of the Chinese volunteers, thousands of whom had made up the bulk of the Communist Party of Burma’s People’s Army during its 1968-79 heydays are regrouping and discussing ways to assist the ex-CPB ceasefire groups that have refused to bow down to Naypyitaw’s Border Guard Force (BGF) program, says a confidential document recently received by SHAN” seems potentially plausible.
But the plausibility of the source document comes into question, at least for me, when it claims that “some 80% of troops in Chengdu Military Region, responsible for security in five provinces including Yunnan, Guizhou, Sichuan and Guangxi are ‘spoiling for a fight.'”
Utusan Malaysia – A Messenger of Hate?
I’ve read Utusan Malaysia countless of times, from my opinion, its no difference from Sin Chew or any of the Chinese newspaper in M’sia, just different viewpoint.
Thaksin on Crown Prince Vajiralongkorn
Agreed that one doesn’t have to be impressed by someone working for FEER, but Chris Beale’s implicit assertion is wrong. Handley was writing for the Review as far back as 1986, and considered Bowring a mentor. Handley was in no way associated with the Dow Jones-Americans to whom Beale is referring.
Chris Beale said: I would n’t be too impressed by Handley having worked for the FEER. At the time of May’92, FEER had just sacked
Philip Bowring – a born Asia expert of the highest calibre – to be replaced by a virtually unknown Chicago Republican, who had no Asia experience.
What happens in Yala…
“If after autonomy, the violence doesn’t stop, then what?”
Simple, then the new Muslim power holders will have to deal with it themselves, i.e. without the help of the Thai Army, budget, etc. It will be “their” business. However, this might not be what the proponents of the autonomy proposal have in mind.
What happens in Yala…
“NongChang”:
There are a few problems with the demands for autonomy, not least of all that the Thai state under the current system will most definitely not agree with autonomy as it touches one of its core pillars – the integrity of the nation. Also the by you seemingly admired Abhisit seems to be now against autonomy (since Chavalit came up with his Pattaya City idea).
Secondly, in the area is a large minority of Buddhists, many of them lived in the area for several hundred years (others are more recent settlers, though no statistic is available over this issue). Furthermore there are many Muslims that do not agree with the insurgency, and fight on the side of the Thai state against the insurgents, organized in the Chor Lor Bor.
Even if the unlikely case might happen and the Thai state might one day deliberate some form of autonomy, it would need the insurgents to assure the security and religious/cultural freedom of the Buddhist minority in the area. So far, from all we can see, one of the insurgents aims is not just their nationalist struggle, but also to get rid of the Buddhists, and to introduce a orthodox form of Islam there. Lets not forget – both sides are victims and perpetrators at the same time, both sides don’t exactly strictly observe human rights in this dirty war.
Simply demanding autonomy is easy, the difficult part is how the necessary compromises between so far radically opposed positions can be achieved. Which would be the minimum requirement for any form of autonomy.
Let the games begin
Its interesting to see the flag bearers dressed in white! and what looks like white officer’s caps!
Fair’s fair – Pasuk on Thailand in transition
Unfortunately, many academics and commentators still use clichees such as “rich and poor” or “populist policies for the poor.”
Fair’s fair – Pasuk on Thailand in transition
I agree wih Somsak that Pasuk’s rhetoric of “rich and poor” can obscure a lot. It’s not, in my opinion, that “rich and poor” doesn’t matter, but to me Pasuk never presents a convincing analysis of what causes “rich and poor.” Being a middle-of-the-road social democrat, she doesn’t seem to think that basic dynamics of capitalism are at stake here–she rarely uses the word “capitalism”–and she doesn’t talk about class, which doesn’t mean exactly the same thing as “rich and poor.” She interprets the smaller disparities in income distribution of some countries as evidence that they “value equity”–what does it mean to say a country values equity?–rather than as the outcomes of social struggles over distribution. (Does the United States have less disparity than Thailand because “the United States values equity”–and does this even make any sense–or because successful struggles by labor in the past resulted in some redistribution, while more recent successful struggles by capitalists have increased disparity again?) Avoiding discussion of class struggle and substituting this kind of feel-good moral rhetoric makes it sound like all Thailand needs is for every Thai to magically “value equity,” rather than for poorer people in Thailand to continue struggling–as many of them are now through the Red Shirt movement–to improve their lot. And no, she doesn’t mention the monarchy. How can one fail to do this in a discussion of income distribution when the Crown Property Bureau is far and away the richest crony capitalist organization in the country–with untaxed wealth that puts Thaksin, the obssession of Pasuk and Chris Baker’s newly revised book, to shame.
Bangkok Post on the crown prince
and should see this…
http://www.matichon.co.th/news_detail.php?newsid=1261393290&grpid=01&catid=