Two decades of disengagement, isolation and tough sanctions have not achieved the political reform sought by those who imposed such international pressure. What it has achieved is simply greater suffering of the poor, total collapase of the nation’s infrastructure (not directly because of sanctions) , the health, education, economic and social administrative structure of a nation. Now that the junta has access to some wealth, it has realised that they are unable to rebuild the nation without the health, education and well being of its people. Than Shwe is fast running out of time, like his mentor Ne Win before him, he needs to do good deeds in this life to redeem his soul in life hereafter. He is certainly not looking forward to history repeating when it comes to his family either. His personal security is at stake, if he really takes the step of retiring from his military position. The length and measures of brutality and ruthlessness he has engaged in protecting himself is proof his insecurity.
I see the sanctions as having achieved some results. I do not see that
any change in United States policy will be greeted as a victory by the generals”. There has been unprecedented decisions on the part of the junta, viz. meeting with Aung San Suu Kyi and allowing her to talk to the diplomats. These small concessions in itself are very ‘humiliating admissions’ that they need the help of one they have sought to destroy for so long.
“Ill-educated people with their resentment of learing and their need to prove the superiority of their ignorance cause much unnecessary suffering.” Aung San Suu Kyi, 1997.
Well said. It’s not what we like, it’s what they are – not just irredeemably selfish and greedy at the expense of an entire nation, but ruthlessly and relentlessly repressive and violent in order to stay in power for eternity.
In all, about $200,000 has been raised and some 2.4 tonnes of hair donated. All the bridges will be rebuilt by early 2010 and organisers are now turning their sites to building a medical clinic in the area, the local report said.
Your knowledge of this Thai word is not that far off. Got to admit I clicked on to read this page right away (I followed the link from Bkk Pundit) because of this word… which I understood to have a different meaning….
I would have used the word р╣Ар╕ер╣Ир╕Щр╕зр╣Ир╕▓р╕з (Len wow) instead of chuck wow.
It is a worry to me that р╕Кр╕▒р╕Бр╕зр╣Ир╕▓р╕з, the phrase, meant something entirely different to me – must be hanging around with the wrong class of Thai folks.
I wish I have as much as just a teeny weeny bit of Susie Wong’s faith in the “Myanmar military”. From the examples you stated, South Korea was under Park’s authoritarian rule for 18 years (61-79); Thailand under Sarit’s for 6 years (57-63); Indonesia under Suharto’s for 32 years; Philippines under Marcos’ for 21 years; Burma under Ne Win’s for 26 years (62-88) and Than Shwe’s for 17 years giving Burma a total of under authoritarian rule for 43 years! Than Shwe is neither Park Chung Hee nor Lee Kwan Yew, don’t forget he is a ruthless mass murderer who kills young innocent students, his own citizens, monks….. just to hang on to power.
It is not a matter of “whether we like it or not…”, it is a matter of we wish what you said were true for the sake of the people of Burma.
Chris Beale @32: On a separate post (Thailand’s military: perpetually political, forever factionalized, again ascendant) you said @15:
“My impression of the Thai military is that it is one of the world’s most fractious, faction-ridden collection of gangs posing as a united army for the world’s camera’s, but little else.
“Only better than an African rabble because of US training.
“…
“The Thai military has never won a foreign war – except the brief skirmish celebrated at Bangkok’s Victory Monument. …”
Not a single change (for the better) has been achieved through the last 50 years of saunctions applied by the west. All saunctions do is to impoverish the general population of the country that it is imposed upon. The ruling class is never affected.
Has an objective (or objectives) for imposing a saunction been ever expounded clearly and specifically? I have never seen one except for “slogan” type aims.
To me, it is time to end saunctions and begin engagements, It is hard to dictate to avlarge educated middle class population.
Your faith in the good generals and ‘economic determinism’ is so touching your insightful summary of Burma elsewhere (Burma sanctions: limited…) has rather lost its shine. You conveniently failed to mention the political upheavals also shared in all those examples you listed. Singapore is effectively a one-party state, and I agree (as in a benevolent autocrat) that an authoritarian system can be very effective for economic development given the political will, an efficient state machine and the absence of checks and balances. Stalin caught up with the West enough to be able to defeat Germany, the most advanced industrialised European nation at the time.
And here’s the rub: the participation of economic elites in politics and the income distribution to the public. As in the topic of the other thread referred to above, it will be limited, symbolic….
Whether you like it or not, the Myanmar military is correct in seeing themselves as the institution to shape the future of their country at present time. If you review the literature of the late late comers (meaning third world countries), the authoritarian nature of the State is essential at the beginning of its transition from a third world developing country to a newly industrializing country. Those developing countries under U.S. sphere of influence followed this model and they are successful to a certain degree depending upon the internal context. South Korea Park Chung Hee (1962), Thailand Sarit (1957), Indonesia Suharto (1965), the Philippines Marcos (1962), etc. These countries started their First Economic Development Plan roughly about the same time. The process was to have a strong State (authoritarian) to control internal security and domestic politics, while having technocrats to lay the economic infrastructure toward market economy. Singapore Lee Kwan Yew and South Korea are examples. They managed to move from dirt poor developing countries to the first world with high GNP per capita and their population are educated with core intelligence. Thailand would have been developed by now had Dr. Puey Ungphakorn were in charge throughout the process. The values, worldviews, character and the abilities of leaders of course matter. I am sure Myanmar leadership can distinguish the difference between Dr. Puey Ungphakorn and Lee Kwan Yew from Phumipon, in choosing the leadership composition for the economic development.
Once you have all the economic fundamentals in place then you need to democratize in order to achieve two purposes: the participation of economic elites in politics and the income distribution to the public.
Economic growth and social development take time. However, with the present day information technology, globalization, and the attitude of the U.S. leaders to engage with Myanmar, I think the transformation could be rather fast. After all Myanmar had shown that she could go nuclear so quickly. Economic growth will solve Myanmar political problems substantially, I am sure it is high in the leadership agenda.
Burma’s economic problems do have a political basis – the lack of both political will and vision that you rightly referred to (never mind democracy and human rights issues, a benevolent autocrat will do just fine, thank you very much) on the part of a regime that shows no sign of redeeming themselves and remains convinced that the military must continue to shape the future of the country.
I agree they don’t have a monopoly on kickbacks and rent-seeking albeit a rather extreme example, and that isolationism and going nuclear have a causal link. Obama’s policy of careful rapprochement is a pragmatic and sensible carrot and stick approach, not all stick and no carrot or vice versa, and yes, international trade will bring opportunities and creates jobs for everyone, at least some trickle-down.
The regime however controls all economic activities on a whim, and shows little willingness to share the national pie. Admittedly it has broadened its social and political support base by creating a crony business class but an overwhelming majority has yet to reap the rewards of its rather belated conversion to open markets and globalisation after a fashion. If the ‘roaring’ trade it carries on with its neighbours and other friendly nations is anything to go by (‘isolation’ is only half-isolation and Westerly), I don’t see Yangon sparkling in the night or the Burmese holding daily feasts for their monks or pwe festivals any time soon.
New book – Lady Mo and Heroism at Tung Samrit
…the untold stories ISBN no. 978-616-90432-0-1
I want to announce availability of my new book, title as above, the end of this month (end October 2009). Please refer to the Korat Post website URL http://www.thekoratpost.com/bookreview.html, for purchase and shipping information. 99 Baht plus shipping.
This book is written around a translation of a local author’s pro-historical account (provided in English as he wrote it in Thai) heavily footnoted by myself, with additional information on Lady Mo from Korat-based and international sources. The book also contains full illustrations by the Thai author that tell the story of Lao’s last king and an important period of Siamese-Lao/SE Asia history.
I have different perspectives for the following reasons.
On Michael Green:
1. The “all against one”(in Green’s word “strength of numbers”) against Myanmar, is the strategy that no one will adopt. Thus far, Vietnam, Laos, and Kampuchea have exercised veto power within the ASEAN to ally with Myanmar. The Indian military is ongoing engagement with the Burmese Army. China will continue to protect its national interests in its immediate sphere.
2. Taro Aso of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) was seriously defeated in the last election. The LDP ideas of changing the Japanese constitution article 9 to re-militarize Japan and its objective to block China access to the Andaman Sea and the Bay of Bengal is an offensive strategy that majority of Japanese disagree with.
3. Obama Administration is pursuing “yes we can at home, and no we can’t abroad,” that’s why the U.S. signed a friendship treaty with ASEAN on July 22, 2009. The U.S. has learned its military lessons from the Korean War and the Vietnam War.
4. It is wrong to corner Myanmar and threaten its regime change with the words like “territorial integrity of Burma,” “coordination on humanitarian relief.” No wonder why Myanmar opts for nuclear. Greeen’s approach is counter-productive to the international security regime of the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT).
On Sean Turnell:
1. I disagree with Turnell that “Burma’s economic problems require fundamental political reform to solve.” Turnell should have review the literature on how ASEAN countries under the U.S. sphere of influence develop its market institutions. In Thailand, with the assistance of the U.S., Dr. Puey Unphakorn (Giles Unpakorn’s father) as the Central Bank Governor had laid the economic fundamentals by coordinating Macroeconomic policy both Monetary Policy and Fiscal Policy with the First National Economic Development Plan which enabled Thailand to transform from exporting of natural primary products to exports of value-added manufacture goods. Myanmar has not gone through that process, I am sure that the World Bank can assist on this matter because Myanmar economic problems require fundamental economic reform to solve.
2. There is no reason to single out Myanmar when kickbacks, rent-seeking are still a usual business in Thailand after over 30 years of market fundamentals was in place.
In conclusion, Obama Administration shows U.S. leadership by overturning the unproductive policy towards Myanmar. Isolationism only brings fear and causes nuclear proliferation. International trade will bring opportunities and creates jobs for everyone.
There was very short note in printed version of Bangkok Post today. Nothing more, nothing less…
Quote: “His Majesty the King is recovering well as his lung condition has improved, the Royal Household Bureau says. The bureau yesterday said the King’s condition was generally good. A chest X-ray has revealed reduced inflammation of His Majesty’s lungs.”
Right, nothing new…
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Rethinking the Burmese sanctions
Two decades of disengagement, isolation and tough sanctions have not achieved the political reform sought by those who imposed such international pressure. What it has achieved is simply greater suffering of the poor, total collapase of the nation’s infrastructure (not directly because of sanctions) , the health, education, economic and social administrative structure of a nation. Now that the junta has access to some wealth, it has realised that they are unable to rebuild the nation without the health, education and well being of its people. Than Shwe is fast running out of time, like his mentor Ne Win before him, he needs to do good deeds in this life to redeem his soul in life hereafter. He is certainly not looking forward to history repeating when it comes to his family either. His personal security is at stake, if he really takes the step of retiring from his military position. The length and measures of brutality and ruthlessness he has engaged in protecting himself is proof his insecurity.
I see the sanctions as having achieved some results. I do not see that
any change in United States policy will be greeted as a victory by the generals”. There has been unprecedented decisions on the part of the junta, viz. meeting with Aung San Suu Kyi and allowing her to talk to the diplomats. These small concessions in itself are very ‘humiliating admissions’ that they need the help of one they have sought to destroy for so long.
“Ill-educated people with their resentment of learing and their need to prove the superiority of their ignorance cause much unnecessary suffering.” Aung San Suu Kyi, 1997.
Vicary and Turnell on Burma sanctions
Bamar ,
Well said. It’s not what we like, it’s what they are – not just irredeemably selfish and greedy at the expense of an entire nation, but ruthlessly and relentlessly repressive and violent in order to stay in power for eternity.
The maths of building bridges in Sagaing
Here is the update of the “Hair bridges” story (http://www.earthtimes.org/articles/show/289678,myanmar-womens-hair-finances-bridge-building.html), based on this week’s edition of The Myanmar Times. Not surprisingly it’s still not up on their website, the link is for a version run by DPA and I believe it even made the front page of the Bangkok Post today.
In all, about $200,000 has been raised and some 2.4 tonnes of hair donated. All the bridges will be rebuilt by early 2010 and organisers are now turning their sites to building a medical clinic in the area, the local report said.
Chuck wow: How the Thai elite loved flying kites
Very interesting to know the history. Here are several photos which I took of the kite festival at Sanam Luang field:
http://jotman.blogspot.com/2008/04/kites-soar-over-grounds-of-royal-palace.html
http://www.jotadventure.com/2008/04/kite-festival-in-bangkok.html
Chuck wow: How the Thai elite loved flying kites
JR,
Your knowledge of this Thai word is not that far off. Got to admit I clicked on to read this page right away (I followed the link from Bkk Pundit) because of this word… which I understood to have a different meaning….
I would have used the word р╣Ар╕ер╣Ир╕Щр╕зр╣Ир╕▓р╕з (Len wow) instead of chuck wow.
Chuck wow: How the Thai elite loved flying kites
Thanks for a very interesting article.
It is a worry to me that р╕Кр╕▒р╕Бр╕зр╣Ир╕▓р╕з, the phrase, meant something entirely different to me – must be hanging around with the wrong class of Thai folks.
John
Vicary and Turnell on Burma sanctions
I wish I have as much as just a teeny weeny bit of Susie Wong’s faith in the “Myanmar military”. From the examples you stated, South Korea was under Park’s authoritarian rule for 18 years (61-79); Thailand under Sarit’s for 6 years (57-63); Indonesia under Suharto’s for 32 years; Philippines under Marcos’ for 21 years; Burma under Ne Win’s for 26 years (62-88) and Than Shwe’s for 17 years giving Burma a total of under authoritarian rule for 43 years! Than Shwe is neither Park Chung Hee nor Lee Kwan Yew, don’t forget he is a ruthless mass murderer who kills young innocent students, his own citizens, monks….. just to hang on to power.
It is not a matter of “whether we like it or not…”, it is a matter of we wish what you said were true for the sake of the people of Burma.
Jakrapob on the state within the state
Chris Beale @32: On a separate post (Thailand’s military: perpetually political, forever factionalized, again ascendant) you said @15:
“My impression of the Thai military is that it is one of the world’s most fractious, faction-ridden collection of gangs posing as a united army for the world’s camera’s, but little else.
“Only better than an African rabble because of US training.
“…
“The Thai military has never won a foreign war – except the brief skirmish celebrated at Bangkok’s Victory Monument. …”
You don’t even agree with yourself.
Thailand’s military: perpetually political, forever factionalized, again ascendant
Subsequent to my previous post, the papers presented at the ISIS forum on civil-military relations can be accessed here.
Vicary and Turnell on Burma sanctions
Was the Burmese Way to Socialism imposed by the US?
Vicary and Turnell on Burma sanctions
Not a single change (for the better) has been achieved through the last 50 years of saunctions applied by the west. All saunctions do is to impoverish the general population of the country that it is imposed upon. The ruling class is never affected.
Has an objective (or objectives) for imposing a saunction been ever expounded clearly and specifically? I have never seen one except for “slogan” type aims.
To me, it is time to end saunctions and begin engagements, It is hard to dictate to avlarge educated middle class population.
Vicary and Turnell on Burma sanctions
Susie Wong,
Your faith in the good generals and ‘economic determinism’ is so touching your insightful summary of Burma elsewhere (Burma sanctions: limited…) has rather lost its shine. You conveniently failed to mention the political upheavals also shared in all those examples you listed. Singapore is effectively a one-party state, and I agree (as in a benevolent autocrat) that an authoritarian system can be very effective for economic development given the political will, an efficient state machine and the absence of checks and balances. Stalin caught up with the West enough to be able to defeat Germany, the most advanced industrialised European nation at the time.
And here’s the rub: the participation of economic elites in politics and the income distribution to the public. As in the topic of the other thread referred to above, it will be limited, symbolic….
Vicary and Turnell on Burma sanctions
Whether you like it or not, the Myanmar military is correct in seeing themselves as the institution to shape the future of their country at present time. If you review the literature of the late late comers (meaning third world countries), the authoritarian nature of the State is essential at the beginning of its transition from a third world developing country to a newly industrializing country. Those developing countries under U.S. sphere of influence followed this model and they are successful to a certain degree depending upon the internal context. South Korea Park Chung Hee (1962), Thailand Sarit (1957), Indonesia Suharto (1965), the Philippines Marcos (1962), etc. These countries started their First Economic Development Plan roughly about the same time. The process was to have a strong State (authoritarian) to control internal security and domestic politics, while having technocrats to lay the economic infrastructure toward market economy. Singapore Lee Kwan Yew and South Korea are examples. They managed to move from dirt poor developing countries to the first world with high GNP per capita and their population are educated with core intelligence. Thailand would have been developed by now had Dr. Puey Ungphakorn were in charge throughout the process. The values, worldviews, character and the abilities of leaders of course matter. I am sure Myanmar leadership can distinguish the difference between Dr. Puey Ungphakorn and Lee Kwan Yew from Phumipon, in choosing the leadership composition for the economic development.
Once you have all the economic fundamentals in place then you need to democratize in order to achieve two purposes: the participation of economic elites in politics and the income distribution to the public.
Economic growth and social development take time. However, with the present day information technology, globalization, and the attitude of the U.S. leaders to engage with Myanmar, I think the transformation could be rather fast. After all Myanmar had shown that she could go nuclear so quickly. Economic growth will solve Myanmar political problems substantially, I am sure it is high in the leadership agenda.
Quote of the day
The current medical obfuscation ….
http://thaicrisis.wordpress.com/2009/09/29/kings-health-red-alarm/
http://thaicrisis.wordpress.com/2009/10/05/kings-health-lung-infection-is-improving/
Quote of the day
Thanks Igor. I hadn’t seen it.
Vicary and Turnell on Burma sanctions
Susie Wong,
Burma’s economic problems do have a political basis – the lack of both political will and vision that you rightly referred to (never mind democracy and human rights issues, a benevolent autocrat will do just fine, thank you very much) on the part of a regime that shows no sign of redeeming themselves and remains convinced that the military must continue to shape the future of the country.
I agree they don’t have a monopoly on kickbacks and rent-seeking albeit a rather extreme example, and that isolationism and going nuclear have a causal link. Obama’s policy of careful rapprochement is a pragmatic and sensible carrot and stick approach, not all stick and no carrot or vice versa, and yes, international trade will bring opportunities and creates jobs for everyone, at least some trickle-down.
The regime however controls all economic activities on a whim, and shows little willingness to share the national pie. Admittedly it has broadened its social and political support base by creating a crony business class but an overwhelming majority has yet to reap the rewards of its rather belated conversion to open markets and globalisation after a fashion. If the ‘roaring’ trade it carries on with its neighbours and other friendly nations is anything to go by (‘isolation’ is only half-isolation and Westerly), I don’t see Yangon sparkling in the night or the Burmese holding daily feasts for their monks or pwe festivals any time soon.
Thailand and lese majeste
9 October 2009
Press release
New book – Lady Mo and Heroism at Tung Samrit
…the untold stories ISBN no. 978-616-90432-0-1
I want to announce availability of my new book, title as above, the end of this month (end October 2009). Please refer to the Korat Post website URL http://www.thekoratpost.com/bookreview.html, for purchase and shipping information. 99 Baht plus shipping.
This book is written around a translation of a local author’s pro-historical account (provided in English as he wrote it in Thai) heavily footnoted by myself, with additional information on Lady Mo from Korat-based and international sources. The book also contains full illustrations by the Thai author that tell the story of Lao’s last king and an important period of Siamese-Lao/SE Asia history.
Vicary and Turnell on Burma sanctions
I have different perspectives for the following reasons.
On Michael Green:
1. The “all against one”(in Green’s word “strength of numbers”) against Myanmar, is the strategy that no one will adopt. Thus far, Vietnam, Laos, and Kampuchea have exercised veto power within the ASEAN to ally with Myanmar. The Indian military is ongoing engagement with the Burmese Army. China will continue to protect its national interests in its immediate sphere.
2. Taro Aso of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) was seriously defeated in the last election. The LDP ideas of changing the Japanese constitution article 9 to re-militarize Japan and its objective to block China access to the Andaman Sea and the Bay of Bengal is an offensive strategy that majority of Japanese disagree with.
3. Obama Administration is pursuing “yes we can at home, and no we can’t abroad,” that’s why the U.S. signed a friendship treaty with ASEAN on July 22, 2009. The U.S. has learned its military lessons from the Korean War and the Vietnam War.
4. It is wrong to corner Myanmar and threaten its regime change with the words like “territorial integrity of Burma,” “coordination on humanitarian relief.” No wonder why Myanmar opts for nuclear. Greeen’s approach is counter-productive to the international security regime of the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT).
On Sean Turnell:
1. I disagree with Turnell that “Burma’s economic problems require fundamental political reform to solve.” Turnell should have review the literature on how ASEAN countries under the U.S. sphere of influence develop its market institutions. In Thailand, with the assistance of the U.S., Dr. Puey Unphakorn (Giles Unpakorn’s father) as the Central Bank Governor had laid the economic fundamentals by coordinating Macroeconomic policy both Monetary Policy and Fiscal Policy with the First National Economic Development Plan which enabled Thailand to transform from exporting of natural primary products to exports of value-added manufacture goods. Myanmar has not gone through that process, I am sure that the World Bank can assist on this matter because Myanmar economic problems require fundamental economic reform to solve.
2. There is no reason to single out Myanmar when kickbacks, rent-seeking are still a usual business in Thailand after over 30 years of market fundamentals was in place.
In conclusion, Obama Administration shows U.S. leadership by overturning the unproductive policy towards Myanmar. Isolationism only brings fear and causes nuclear proliferation. International trade will bring opportunities and creates jobs for everyone.
Quote of the day
There was very short note in printed version of Bangkok Post today. Nothing more, nothing less…
Quote: “His Majesty the King is recovering well as his lung condition has improved, the Royal Household Bureau says. The bureau yesterday said the King’s condition was generally good. A chest X-ray has revealed reduced inflammation of His Majesty’s lungs.”
Right, nothing new…
Quote of the day
Anyone seen a daily hospital report the last two days? They seem to have gone.