# 8 The reporting in Thai newspaper indeed is annoying. Until now, we don’t even have any (as far as I can see) substantial legal interpretation of the verdict regarding Pojaman, etc. The public sphere is so awash with prefabricated discoursive elements that it is very hard to keep an independent point of view. As for the courts, ever since the king’s command in April 2006, judicial independence has been even more in question than before. Let’s see how the Ratchada land case will turn out.
of what i have read so far of the responses , you kind of get the idea that the writing was on the proverbial wall for some time. of what i have also read of thai history is that coups have been part of the political land scape in thailand for some time. it goes back as far as the early 1930s. And every now and again when things do not go a certain way they should , ” hey guess what !! ” . Its coup time. What can the thai people do to stop this ? . You kind of get the impression , not too much. It all ways seems that who ever gets elected will run thailand like its there personal piggy bank. Where are the checks and balances ? .
Hla Oo , I disagree with you on a few important points.
Since the 70’s, the Burmese people have become even mmore estranged from their government. At this juncture I would think that they’d be more than willing to work with anyone trying to get rid of the SPDC.
If they ever needed a lesson on how uncaring their own government is, all they have to do is look no further than the misery visited upon them by Nargis, then compounded by the SPDC.
150,000 men are much easier to maneuver than 500,000 mutinous and disaffected troops. Additionally, the SPDC lacks the logistics to employ them effectively.
Finally, you can only get so many people onto a battlefield, as the Chinese learned the hard way in Korea. Numbers alone will not win the war.
When U Nu launched his ill fated adventure he had less than two dozen foreign advisers. The hope at that time was that if they – the U.S. – threw some money his way, U Nu might be able to upset the apple cart. The entire matter was ill conceived and poorly planed and executed.
In addition, as is typical in these things, U Nu got the idea in his head that he was a military genius.
The Chinese have no use for the generals of the SPDC, and knowledgeable people I’ve communicated with have stated that it’s their belief that the Chinese would prefer a more stable government. Their interest in Burma is economic. The name of the game with the Chinese is money.
You can forget about nuclear forces. They don’t come into play anymore. The Chinese would no more use nukes in Burma than the U.S. would in Cuba, or the Russians in Georgia. Not going to happen.
I really think you’re over analyzing the situation.
I thought jadeite was only found in Burma and Central America. Nephrite, the other stone known as jade, is the one found in China as well as other countries.
U Nu, the former prime minister of Burma and the most popular politician among the Burmese populace, tried in the seventies to topple the military government in Rangoon by staging a Thailand-based armed rebellion with more than 20 million dollars in his pocket and the full backing of United States. (No body knows how many advisers he’d got then, definitely more than 100.)
At that time the only 150,000 strong Burmese army under Dictator Ne Win was more than bankrupt and also facing the massive invasion of Chinese Red-guard divisions on the long Eastern Front by the Salween River.
Burmese territories East of the Salween river was lost to the Communists and the Burmese army even moved all the weapon factories and heavy industries to the West bank of Irrawaddy River, the last defense line against Chinese hordes. (Invading Chinese easily destroyed Pagan in 1287 just because the city was on the East bank of Irrawaddy.)
But the army successfully used Burmese Nationalism against foreign-backed U Nu Exile rebels. Expecting U Nu would target his former political stronghold in the delta, the army trained and armed every able men in the Burmese villages near the shoreline in delta, and pumped them up with a strong dose of patriotism.
As expected, U Nu sent many boat loads of well armed rebel forces onto the shoreline, but all ended up being killed or captured by the People Militia, called Pyi-thu-sit in Burmese, from the nearby villages once they landed.
The funny thing was the mercenaries equipped with modern M16s and M79s didn’t even get a chance to use their weapons against the villagers armed only with old lee-enfield .303 rifles. Then was the end of U Nu’s rebellion after he lost almost all his army of willing mercenaries.
Now the Burmese army has almost half a million men, access to the endless supply of arms from China, more than a billion dollars every year from selling gas to Thailand, and no other enemy to face except a tired and exhausted and seriously fractured bunch of ethnic rebels on the border with Thailand, which is now more than willing to cooperate with the Burmese generals for her own economic benefits, unlike U Nu’s rebellious times.
I honestly think that the time to use an armed rebellion to solve the Burmese problem was well expired. UNLESS, that is big unless, the gun-ho Americans are still willing to use their armed-forces like they did to Iraq. Then the another big bully,China, wouldn’t sit on the side line and the result would be bigger than the Korean War, or Ben Hur as someone said it in his post here.
Close to one million strong South Western Army of PLA has been waiting on the border and nuclear-armed and ready for that scenario since 1988, when the US Seventh Fleet entered the Bay of Bangal.
It is horribly scary and it could happen soon if George Bush listens to all the ex-special forces Americans and Aussies and Finish and … etc, etc’s writing on this New Mandala!
Your child needs to realize that not every culture has access to McDonald’s or Burger King.
These people eat dogs because they need some protein in their diet, not because they hate dogs.
I read Kaplan’s article about three times before deciding to reply on NM.
There is no question that if the Karen, Shan and Mon tribes had the equipment, they could tie up the Burmese government and probably hasten its collapse.
There’s also no question that the West has been slow to react to events in Burma, and to try and shape the end game. They could do quite a bit more, and still not show their hand, from weapons, to medicines, to food.
From time to time, mercenaries show up to assist the Karens. Most of them are delusional, with ideas of fame and fortune. They scurry off to the jungle, take a few photos of themselves surrounded by KNLA soldiers, then scamper back to Mae Sot, to tell bullshit war stories to gullible reporters and tourists.
Occasionally, just occasionally, someone like Dave Everett shows up, and delivers the real goods. These guys gave great assistance to the tribes. They were able to transition many of the guerrilla units from disorganized rabble into first rate fighters, able to take it to the SPDC. Only short sightedness on the part of the Thai government and KNU leadership caused its failure.
I have no aversion to mercenaries assisting the KNLA, the Shan or the Mon. But there has to be some way to vet these people, weed out the wannabees and bullshit artists who are just looking to make a name for themselves. And there’s no shortage of these people.
There is some quality talent out there; the west just needs some mechanism for recruiting and controlling them.
One of the individuals mentioned in the article had served time in prison for drug smuggling. That, in and of itself, would not make me keep him at arms length, but it would the U.S. government. They tend to hire saints to do this type of work, where they should be seeking out killers.
This is why the government fails in secret paramilitary adventures – they hire a priest instead of a pirate.
There is absolutely no doubt in my mind that with the influx of less than 20 million dollars in weaponry and no more than 100 freelance advisers, the SPDC would collapse.
At that point, the U.S., England, France and other democratic governments could position themselves to bring about positive change in Burma.
Building clinics along the Thai/Burma border, or feeding the tens of thousands of refugees is a good thing. But it is not going to change the situation inside Burma. Some of the donated money needs to be spent on arms, munitions and advisers.
I fully realize that the usual suspects are going to come out of the wood work and attack me for this post; my advocacy of arming the tribes. But their preferred method, negotiating with the SPDC, is not working. It’s time for a fresh approach, backed by the western powers.
Oh, not every economic woe, Hla Oo. But a very significant role it does play and is out of control. It’s like every instrument a double-edged sword. Commodity including labour and capital cannot be thought of either as purely neutral and good or as purely profiteering and bad. Neanderthal is a bit extreme. The world could surely feed, clothe, shelter, educate and keep its people healthy even with the technology of the 50s provided we had a fair socio-economic order and not badly skewed as it were within as well as between countries.
The fist violence that i have witnessed, insignificant as it may have been, were when lone pro-Thaksin protesters appeared at PAD rallies at Royal Plaza. They were brutally attacked by PAD protesters, and saved by plain cloth police. These were very ugly incidents, i have been only a few meters away.
The only thing i am saying here is that PAD has the same potential for violence, as the recent arming shows.
The major difference in strategy and tactics is that the PAD is far more professionally organized, mostly because of Chamlong’s military expertise, and has with Sonthi Limthongkul a media professional who exactly knows how to manipulate the media.
The UDD has never shown such professionalism in their protests. Their strategies were amateurish, and their media presence was dominated by people who have not been very experienced with the media. Instead of short sound bites that the media needed, they have held endless monologues, nearly impossible to cut down to new format. The UDD’s only person who had good spoken English language skills was Jakrapop.
Jakrapop is an interesting character. For a politician he is a very nice guy, outspoken, and very approachable, and i still think that the FCCT speech on the patronage system was the most courageous public speech i have heard by a Thai politician.
The accusations of media intimidation is a difficult point. There are a lot of behind the scenes games going on the public is rarely aware of. The only thing i am aware of that some of that was a reaction of PAD attempts to infiltrate certain key position of the media.
The way how Jakrapop had to resign because of the lese majeste accusations was the result of an extremely ugly game.
Also i think that UDD had much lower budgets available than PAD had. But any further than speculation is of course not possible here.
In terms of hurling abuse – i should be equally grateful to both groups as they have greatly expanded my vocabulary of colorful swearwords in equal measure.
You pointed out one major difference of pre election and post election UDD already – several UDD key leaders have joined positions in the government, and had to distance themselves from street protests. The last time i spoke with Mor Weng and the other non-politicians of the UDD is a while ago, when i met them during the Lumpini meeting. There they said they will be busy with meetings concerning the constitution change.
I have also not seen Sombat from the ‘Just Say No’ group either in a long time.
I have not met them during the present protests at all. I am not even sure how much the present protest groups can be linked to UDD, or even if they are.
It is rather complicated with the UDD, you can’t lump them together, much less than with the PAD. At the time of the military government and the Prem Compound clashes – the UDD was a unified group made up from very different single groups (where of course the majority of protesters were pro Thaksin and primarily attracted by PTV). The election win of PPP and return to civilian rule of course stopped the reasons for UDD to stage large street protests.
Of course the reappearance of the PAD has fueled counter protests, but i don’t think that they can be directly linked to, and compared with pre-election UDD.
Sidh, now that Thaksin is out of the way do you think that the judiciary should now turn its gaze to the past actions of HMK as outlined by Republican, Somsak et al on this blog?
As you say: There are many innocent victims of …who will NEVER see justice.
I didn’t blame you ,Hla Oo, for any economic woe. All I said was that your system will fail when an unusual event happens and your stock gets wiped out.
I also agree that capital moving about is necessary for an economy but to say that you are not gambling means you are living in a middle class fantasy world. Gambling, pornography and drugs are for sleazy lowlifes- nothing to do with buying shares, reading D.H. Lawrence or taking prozac. Business people had a choice between claiming that gambling was good or that finance is not gambling – they chose the latter.
What foreigners who go to Burma can tell the Burmese is how the outside world views their discontent, and how much support they have beyond their borders. People who throw around words like ”patronising” and ”racist” without an appropriate context are usually bigots. They view every issue through their own self-righteous conceit.
I disagree with the contention that the coup was peaceful. Rolling tanks through towns, like the Thai army did here or the Soviets did in Hungary is an act of violence regardless of the degree of resistance.
If I walk into a liquor store with a pistol and the clerks just hand me money, it was still not a peaceful transaction.
If Thai people had resisted the military they would have been slaughtered like they were in 1992 – and I was here for both coups.
Nick,
I have drawn parallels with the World Trade incident and the event at Udon. The PAD don’t have it as easy as you assumed WHEN THE STATE COLLUDES WITH THUGS. I urge you to reinvestigate the World Trade incident as it was arguably one of the starting point of the regression into violence – consistent with the old Thai saying “slit the chicken’s throat to scare the monkey”.
At the World Trade, the police colluded with the thugs in black to beat up an old man and a women to send a message to all other protestors and others at home who thought of joining the rally (at least some of my friends decided against attending a rally as a result – as for as I am aware). At Udon, it’s the same scenario, and the leaders of the Udon lovers admitted as much – if you don’t share our views, don’t you dare step into Udon.
In these context, your arguments will only ring true IF and ONLY IF the PAD can freely and safely hold rallies in PPP strongholds. Besides, I understand that the UDD did not formally ask to meet PMPrem to peacefully deliver an open letter of protest. They were shouting abuse all the way from Sanam Luang (maybe you didn’t hear any of that?).
And this also raise an interesting point, that complements your last paragraph that states that the “The UDD after the elections is different” – as the two events I pointed to were BEFORE and AFTER the elections. Why were they “different”? Is it because after the elections, UDD leaders like Jakrapob became a minister in the PPP cabinet (after losing the election, it must be noted) who notoriously manipulated, with full intention of clamping down, on the FREE MEDIA (which then perpetuates, NOT SOLVE, the problem)?
Look Nick, all it takes to avoid violence is for UDD and all its umbrella groups to avoid PAD rallies. Plain and simple. And all it took for PAD to move its rallies is for teachers, parents and their children to file a complaint against the court. If the PAD was a mafia thug, all they had to do is send a letter with a bullet to the school principle and parents…
This is Oliver Pye’s and Wolfgang’s Schaffer’s research into the PAD – ‘Anti-Thaksin Movement in Thailand: an Analyses’, which was included into the Special Edition of the Journal for Contemporary Asia.
I honestly do not know why this research was included in the otherwise excellent publication, because there is a far more competent paper on the same topic available.
Pye’s and Schaffer’s research has several factual mistakes, such as simply taking over the numbers presented by PAD and the Nation, without re-checking their validity.
They also overstate the influence of NGO’s and others, and have misinterpreted the Royalist influence (read Winitchakul and Ungpakorn, who both also have different views on these points).
Please compare this research with Michael Nelson’s ‘People’s Sector Politics in Thailand: Problems of Democracy in Ousting Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra’.
I do find Michael Nelson’s research far more competent, and the facts presented do correspond to what i have found. Also the present position of the PAD as a group has re-confirmed Nelson’s research, and not Pye and Schaffer’s.
Detailing the maneuverings of elite and the ideology that they inevitably employ only skims the surface and gets rather tiresome after a while.
How the opinion of different sections of the electorate in Bangkok has changed and evolved with respect to Thaksin over the last eight years would be far more interesting to learn about than elite maneuverings and grudge matches.
Many in Bangkok must be fed up with Thaksin for a variety of reasons. Because of the barbaric approach he took to solving many problems in the South (Tak Bai, Krue Se) or the “war on drugs.” For concentrating all power in one party and then using it to push people around, e.g. the media. For using divisive politics, clearly a huge division exists between the center and the periphery that needs to be healed. For milking the telecoms industry for everything it was worth (detailed in the Thai capital paper that the current author co-authored with Chris Baker). The Sondhi protests started escalating exactly when Thaksin sold Shin Corp to Temasek. This was the crucial breaking point. By now, many probably would just like to get rid of him so that Thailand can get rid of street protests and return to some semblance of stability. Continued political conflicts are not good for investment, business, revenues, or incomes.
Where you have a section called Myths answering most of questions in this thread. One of the most relevant ones:
Doesn’t contact with tourists encourage democracy and prevent abuses in Burma more than isolation?
“Burmese people know their own problems better than anyone else. They know what they want – they want democracy – and many have died for it. To suggest that there’s anything new that tourists can teach the people of Burma about their own situation is not simply patronising – it’s also racist.”
OK. Enough. I think the various opinions on this post have now been well and truly canvassed. Unless comments have something new to say I will be very inclined to delete them!
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PAD and the Democrats will miss Thaksin
# 8 The reporting in Thai newspaper indeed is annoying. Until now, we don’t even have any (as far as I can see) substantial legal interpretation of the verdict regarding Pojaman, etc. The public sphere is so awash with prefabricated discoursive elements that it is very hard to keep an independent point of view. As for the courts, ever since the king’s command in April 2006, judicial independence has been even more in question than before. Let’s see how the Ratchada land case will turn out.
Nation, religion and monarchy in the fight against Thaksin
of what i have read so far of the responses , you kind of get the idea that the writing was on the proverbial wall for some time. of what i have also read of thai history is that coups have been part of the political land scape in thailand for some time. it goes back as far as the early 1930s. And every now and again when things do not go a certain way they should , ” hey guess what !! ” . Its coup time. What can the thai people do to stop this ? . You kind of get the impression , not too much. It all ways seems that who ever gets elected will run thailand like its there personal piggy bank. Where are the checks and balances ? .
The Economist on politics in Thailand
Those who look for “root causes” of complex social phenomena cannot but fail…
Robert Kaplan on Burma and American war-fighters
Hla Oo , I disagree with you on a few important points.
Since the 70’s, the Burmese people have become even mmore estranged from their government. At this juncture I would think that they’d be more than willing to work with anyone trying to get rid of the SPDC.
If they ever needed a lesson on how uncaring their own government is, all they have to do is look no further than the misery visited upon them by Nargis, then compounded by the SPDC.
150,000 men are much easier to maneuver than 500,000 mutinous and disaffected troops. Additionally, the SPDC lacks the logistics to employ them effectively.
Finally, you can only get so many people onto a battlefield, as the Chinese learned the hard way in Korea. Numbers alone will not win the war.
When U Nu launched his ill fated adventure he had less than two dozen foreign advisers. The hope at that time was that if they – the U.S. – threw some money his way, U Nu might be able to upset the apple cart. The entire matter was ill conceived and poorly planed and executed.
In addition, as is typical in these things, U Nu got the idea in his head that he was a military genius.
The Chinese have no use for the generals of the SPDC, and knowledgeable people I’ve communicated with have stated that it’s their belief that the Chinese would prefer a more stable government. Their interest in Burma is economic. The name of the game with the Chinese is money.
You can forget about nuclear forces. They don’t come into play anymore. The Chinese would no more use nukes in Burma than the U.S. would in Cuba, or the Russians in Georgia. Not going to happen.
I really think you’re over analyzing the situation.
More on Burmese jade
I thought jadeite was only found in Burma and Central America. Nephrite, the other stone known as jade, is the one found in China as well as other countries.
Robert Kaplan on Burma and American war-fighters
U Nu, the former prime minister of Burma and the most popular politician among the Burmese populace, tried in the seventies to topple the military government in Rangoon by staging a Thailand-based armed rebellion with more than 20 million dollars in his pocket and the full backing of United States. (No body knows how many advisers he’d got then, definitely more than 100.)
At that time the only 150,000 strong Burmese army under Dictator Ne Win was more than bankrupt and also facing the massive invasion of Chinese Red-guard divisions on the long Eastern Front by the Salween River.
Burmese territories East of the Salween river was lost to the Communists and the Burmese army even moved all the weapon factories and heavy industries to the West bank of Irrawaddy River, the last defense line against Chinese hordes. (Invading Chinese easily destroyed Pagan in 1287 just because the city was on the East bank of Irrawaddy.)
But the army successfully used Burmese Nationalism against foreign-backed U Nu Exile rebels. Expecting U Nu would target his former political stronghold in the delta, the army trained and armed every able men in the Burmese villages near the shoreline in delta, and pumped them up with a strong dose of patriotism.
As expected, U Nu sent many boat loads of well armed rebel forces onto the shoreline, but all ended up being killed or captured by the People Militia, called Pyi-thu-sit in Burmese, from the nearby villages once they landed.
The funny thing was the mercenaries equipped with modern M16s and M79s didn’t even get a chance to use their weapons against the villagers armed only with old lee-enfield .303 rifles. Then was the end of U Nu’s rebellion after he lost almost all his army of willing mercenaries.
Now the Burmese army has almost half a million men, access to the endless supply of arms from China, more than a billion dollars every year from selling gas to Thailand, and no other enemy to face except a tired and exhausted and seriously fractured bunch of ethnic rebels on the border with Thailand, which is now more than willing to cooperate with the Burmese generals for her own economic benefits, unlike U Nu’s rebellious times.
I honestly think that the time to use an armed rebellion to solve the Burmese problem was well expired. UNLESS, that is big unless, the gun-ho Americans are still willing to use their armed-forces like they did to Iraq. Then the another big bully,China, wouldn’t sit on the side line and the result would be bigger than the Korean War, or Ben Hur as someone said it in his post here.
Close to one million strong South Western Army of PLA has been waiting on the border and nuclear-armed and ready for that scenario since 1988, when the US Seventh Fleet entered the Bay of Bangal.
It is horribly scary and it could happen soon if George Bush listens to all the ex-special forces Americans and Aussies and Finish and … etc, etc’s writing on this New Mandala!
Lunch?
Your child needs to realize that not every culture has access to McDonald’s or Burger King.
These people eat dogs because they need some protein in their diet, not because they hate dogs.
Robert Kaplan on Burma and American war-fighters
I read Kaplan’s article about three times before deciding to reply on NM.
There is no question that if the Karen, Shan and Mon tribes had the equipment, they could tie up the Burmese government and probably hasten its collapse.
There’s also no question that the West has been slow to react to events in Burma, and to try and shape the end game. They could do quite a bit more, and still not show their hand, from weapons, to medicines, to food.
From time to time, mercenaries show up to assist the Karens. Most of them are delusional, with ideas of fame and fortune. They scurry off to the jungle, take a few photos of themselves surrounded by KNLA soldiers, then scamper back to Mae Sot, to tell bullshit war stories to gullible reporters and tourists.
Occasionally, just occasionally, someone like Dave Everett shows up, and delivers the real goods. These guys gave great assistance to the tribes. They were able to transition many of the guerrilla units from disorganized rabble into first rate fighters, able to take it to the SPDC. Only short sightedness on the part of the Thai government and KNU leadership caused its failure.
I have no aversion to mercenaries assisting the KNLA, the Shan or the Mon. But there has to be some way to vet these people, weed out the wannabees and bullshit artists who are just looking to make a name for themselves. And there’s no shortage of these people.
There is some quality talent out there; the west just needs some mechanism for recruiting and controlling them.
One of the individuals mentioned in the article had served time in prison for drug smuggling. That, in and of itself, would not make me keep him at arms length, but it would the U.S. government. They tend to hire saints to do this type of work, where they should be seeking out killers.
This is why the government fails in secret paramilitary adventures – they hire a priest instead of a pirate.
There is absolutely no doubt in my mind that with the influx of less than 20 million dollars in weaponry and no more than 100 freelance advisers, the SPDC would collapse.
At that point, the U.S., England, France and other democratic governments could position themselves to bring about positive change in Burma.
Building clinics along the Thai/Burma border, or feeding the tens of thousands of refugees is a good thing. But it is not going to change the situation inside Burma. Some of the donated money needs to be spent on arms, munitions and advisers.
I fully realize that the usual suspects are going to come out of the wood work and attack me for this post; my advocacy of arming the tribes. But their preferred method, negotiating with the SPDC, is not working. It’s time for a fresh approach, backed by the western powers.
PAD and the Democrats will miss Thaksin
Finally, a good opinion piece about the Fugitive in the International Herald Tribune.
http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/08/13/opinion/edthai.php
Inoculating Thailand against one-man rule
August 13, 2008
Interview with Professor Duncan McCargo
Oh, not every economic woe, Hla Oo. But a very significant role it does play and is out of control. It’s like every instrument a double-edged sword. Commodity including labour and capital cannot be thought of either as purely neutral and good or as purely profiteering and bad. Neanderthal is a bit extreme. The world could surely feed, clothe, shelter, educate and keep its people healthy even with the technology of the 50s provided we had a fair socio-economic order and not badly skewed as it were within as well as between countries.
Revisiting the Prem compound clashes
“Sidh S”:
The fist violence that i have witnessed, insignificant as it may have been, were when lone pro-Thaksin protesters appeared at PAD rallies at Royal Plaza. They were brutally attacked by PAD protesters, and saved by plain cloth police. These were very ugly incidents, i have been only a few meters away.
The only thing i am saying here is that PAD has the same potential for violence, as the recent arming shows.
The major difference in strategy and tactics is that the PAD is far more professionally organized, mostly because of Chamlong’s military expertise, and has with Sonthi Limthongkul a media professional who exactly knows how to manipulate the media.
The UDD has never shown such professionalism in their protests. Their strategies were amateurish, and their media presence was dominated by people who have not been very experienced with the media. Instead of short sound bites that the media needed, they have held endless monologues, nearly impossible to cut down to new format. The UDD’s only person who had good spoken English language skills was Jakrapop.
Jakrapop is an interesting character. For a politician he is a very nice guy, outspoken, and very approachable, and i still think that the FCCT speech on the patronage system was the most courageous public speech i have heard by a Thai politician.
The accusations of media intimidation is a difficult point. There are a lot of behind the scenes games going on the public is rarely aware of. The only thing i am aware of that some of that was a reaction of PAD attempts to infiltrate certain key position of the media.
The way how Jakrapop had to resign because of the lese majeste accusations was the result of an extremely ugly game.
Also i think that UDD had much lower budgets available than PAD had. But any further than speculation is of course not possible here.
In terms of hurling abuse – i should be equally grateful to both groups as they have greatly expanded my vocabulary of colorful swearwords in equal measure.
You pointed out one major difference of pre election and post election UDD already – several UDD key leaders have joined positions in the government, and had to distance themselves from street protests. The last time i spoke with Mor Weng and the other non-politicians of the UDD is a while ago, when i met them during the Lumpini meeting. There they said they will be busy with meetings concerning the constitution change.
I have also not seen Sombat from the ‘Just Say No’ group either in a long time.
I have not met them during the present protests at all. I am not even sure how much the present protest groups can be linked to UDD, or even if they are.
It is rather complicated with the UDD, you can’t lump them together, much less than with the PAD. At the time of the military government and the Prem Compound clashes – the UDD was a unified group made up from very different single groups (where of course the majority of protesters were pro Thaksin and primarily attracted by PTV). The election win of PPP and return to civilian rule of course stopped the reasons for UDD to stage large street protests.
Of course the reappearance of the PAD has fueled counter protests, but i don’t think that they can be directly linked to, and compared with pre-election UDD.
PAD and the Democrats will miss Thaksin
Sidh, now that Thaksin is out of the way do you think that the judiciary should now turn its gaze to the past actions of HMK as outlined by Republican, Somsak et al on this blog?
As you say: There are many innocent victims of …who will NEVER see justice.
Interview with Professor Duncan McCargo
I didn’t blame you ,Hla Oo, for any economic woe. All I said was that your system will fail when an unusual event happens and your stock gets wiped out.
I also agree that capital moving about is necessary for an economy but to say that you are not gambling means you are living in a middle class fantasy world. Gambling, pornography and drugs are for sleazy lowlifes- nothing to do with buying shares, reading D.H. Lawrence or taking prozac. Business people had a choice between claiming that gambling was good or that finance is not gambling – they chose the latter.
Call for Lonely Planet boycott
What foreigners who go to Burma can tell the Burmese is how the outside world views their discontent, and how much support they have beyond their borders. People who throw around words like ”patronising” and ”racist” without an appropriate context are usually bigots. They view every issue through their own self-righteous conceit.
Nation, religion and monarchy in the fight against Thaksin
I disagree with the contention that the coup was peaceful. Rolling tanks through towns, like the Thai army did here or the Soviets did in Hungary is an act of violence regardless of the degree of resistance.
If I walk into a liquor store with a pistol and the clerks just hand me money, it was still not a peaceful transaction.
If Thai people had resisted the military they would have been slaughtered like they were in 1992 – and I was here for both coups.
Revisiting the Prem compound clashes
Nick,
I have drawn parallels with the World Trade incident and the event at Udon. The PAD don’t have it as easy as you assumed WHEN THE STATE COLLUDES WITH THUGS. I urge you to reinvestigate the World Trade incident as it was arguably one of the starting point of the regression into violence – consistent with the old Thai saying “slit the chicken’s throat to scare the monkey”.
At the World Trade, the police colluded with the thugs in black to beat up an old man and a women to send a message to all other protestors and others at home who thought of joining the rally (at least some of my friends decided against attending a rally as a result – as for as I am aware). At Udon, it’s the same scenario, and the leaders of the Udon lovers admitted as much – if you don’t share our views, don’t you dare step into Udon.
In these context, your arguments will only ring true IF and ONLY IF the PAD can freely and safely hold rallies in PPP strongholds. Besides, I understand that the UDD did not formally ask to meet PMPrem to peacefully deliver an open letter of protest. They were shouting abuse all the way from Sanam Luang (maybe you didn’t hear any of that?).
And this also raise an interesting point, that complements your last paragraph that states that the “The UDD after the elections is different” – as the two events I pointed to were BEFORE and AFTER the elections. Why were they “different”? Is it because after the elections, UDD leaders like Jakrapob became a minister in the PPP cabinet (after losing the election, it must be noted) who notoriously manipulated, with full intention of clamping down, on the FREE MEDIA (which then perpetuates, NOT SOLVE, the problem)?
Look Nick, all it takes to avoid violence is for UDD and all its umbrella groups to avoid PAD rallies. Plain and simple. And all it took for PAD to move its rallies is for teachers, parents and their children to file a complaint against the court. If the PAD was a mafia thug, all they had to do is send a letter with a bullet to the school principle and parents…
Nation, religion and monarchy in the fight against Thaksin
“Karmablues”:
This is Oliver Pye’s and Wolfgang’s Schaffer’s research into the PAD – ‘Anti-Thaksin Movement in Thailand: an Analyses’, which was included into the Special Edition of the Journal for Contemporary Asia.
I honestly do not know why this research was included in the otherwise excellent publication, because there is a far more competent paper on the same topic available.
Pye’s and Schaffer’s research has several factual mistakes, such as simply taking over the numbers presented by PAD and the Nation, without re-checking their validity.
They also overstate the influence of NGO’s and others, and have misinterpreted the Royalist influence (read Winitchakul and Ungpakorn, who both also have different views on these points).
Please compare this research with Michael Nelson’s ‘People’s Sector Politics in Thailand: Problems of Democracy in Ousting Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra’.
I do find Michael Nelson’s research far more competent, and the facts presented do correspond to what i have found. Also the present position of the PAD as a group has re-confirmed Nelson’s research, and not Pye and Schaffer’s.
Here’s a link to Nelson’s paper:
http://www.cityu.edu.hk/searc/WP87_07_MNelson.pdf
Nation, religion and monarchy in the fight against Thaksin
Detailing the maneuverings of elite and the ideology that they inevitably employ only skims the surface and gets rather tiresome after a while.
How the opinion of different sections of the electorate in Bangkok has changed and evolved with respect to Thaksin over the last eight years would be far more interesting to learn about than elite maneuverings and grudge matches.
Many in Bangkok must be fed up with Thaksin for a variety of reasons. Because of the barbaric approach he took to solving many problems in the South (Tak Bai, Krue Se) or the “war on drugs.” For concentrating all power in one party and then using it to push people around, e.g. the media. For using divisive politics, clearly a huge division exists between the center and the periphery that needs to be healed. For milking the telecoms industry for everything it was worth (detailed in the Thai capital paper that the current author co-authored with Chris Baker). The Sondhi protests started escalating exactly when Thaksin sold Shin Corp to Temasek. This was the crucial breaking point. By now, many probably would just like to get rid of him so that Thailand can get rid of street protests and return to some semblance of stability. Continued political conflicts are not good for investment, business, revenues, or incomes.
Call for Lonely Planet boycott
I believe the Nobel Peace Laureate Aung San Suu Kyi would know something about it, and she has asked tourists not to visit the country.
Lots of info at:
http://www.burmacampaign.org.uk/action_holiday.html
Where you have a section called Myths answering most of questions in this thread. One of the most relevant ones:
Doesn’t contact with tourists encourage democracy and prevent abuses in Burma more than isolation?
“Burmese people know their own problems better than anyone else. They know what they want – they want democracy – and many have died for it. To suggest that there’s anything new that tourists can teach the people of Burma about their own situation is not simply patronising – it’s also racist.”
PAD – ready for violence
OK. Enough. I think the various opinions on this post have now been well and truly canvassed. Unless comments have something new to say I will be very inclined to delete them!