Wow, randomthaiguy, your analysis is so accurately based on fact (and not hearsay) and logic that I am stunned.
Thaksin is out to destroy the educated, smart, wise, hardworking, virtuous middle class!
While the poor are still stupid and rotten and undeserving of their ballots! Oh if only landowners were allowed to vote!
And Thaksin is still in control of elections officials, so much so as to be able to switch ballot boxes, influence exit polls, and basically conspire to hijack the entire election!
Woe to us!
P.S. So what is it, did Thaksin pay the villagers OR did he do the ballot switching? If he did pay the villagers, wouldn’t the ballot box switching be useless? If he could switch ballot boxes, why would he bother paying them off?
If the generals won’t accept the people’s mandate, why hold an election?
Wow! Class hatred and anti-Semitism (via replacement theology) in the same post! You should have added a little sexism and gone for the trifecta.
You wrote, “rarely is the majority ever right.”
Indeed. That’s why I agree with your sentiment that we need an elite cabal to micromanage the lives of the general populace. However, the question remains, should our elites be composed of conservative industrial-military aristocrats or leftist academic technocrats? It’s a shame we can’t have a democratic vote as to which group should compose our elitist cabal due to that “certain ex priminister [sic] with deeeep pockets“. And by a ” certain ex priminster” you mean Prem, right?
Since, randomthaiguy4thailand, I’m guessing the sarcasm of the previous paragraph will elude you, allow me to say this; as someone who practiced Judaism for 27 years before entering another spiritual path, forgive me if I believe the Jewish majority of 1st-century Judea were “correct” in your particular example. It’s just a shame that the Roman elites had to interfere. (By the way, just when is “Jesus vs the Jews in 3-D” coming out on DVD? I missed it when it was playing at the local cinema.)
For the sake of the argument (and maybe Andrew can put this all on a new subject/thread), I’m not sure Thaksin/PPP have the upper hand in the short-medium term, even if in the long run it seems inevitable the palace cedes power to politicians.
I think the military-palace alliance signalled where the line is and where they think Thaksin went too far. Their threat is still out there, whatever the king’s words — which he has said in the past (“we have to not use our arms but work together with the people in unity” he always says).
Thaksin and the “hotheads” around him — those that the military regards as “communists,” Chang Noi told us — are probably itching more than ever for revenge. But the military has also made clear it won’t be toyed with.
Moreover, in the past year Thaksin’s men have been pushed out of key positions in the military, while Prem-palace allies have come up. It would take Thaksin several years to wrest back control, and the first thing he would have to do — ironically — would be to approve the military’s massive wishlist, which would just strengthen their position vis-a-vis civilian politicians.
So while we can say that the election was a message from the people to the military to not think it can control the country, the past 15 months was this message from the military to the people and politicians: “don’t f**k with us or our mates in the palace.”
In short: don’t make the mistake of ruling out any more coups.
Historicus, thanks very much for your impressions.
Your observations re election advertising in Korat are very similar to Chachoengsao municipality. The town itself was virtually advertising free, except for the about eight locations that the muncipality had designated as places were the candidates could place their signboards. Thus, the “sign space” in the municipality was dominated by commercial signs and those representing Nation, Religion, Monarchy. Same in the small Sanam Chai Khet municipality.
As well, outside of the muncipal area, the number of small signboards increased. When I accompanied the director of constituency 1 through endless rural roads, almost all intersections, or where two rural roads met, had signboards. This was all the more visible as there is little color other than green and grey in these areas. At major interersections, only the election commission was allowed to place big billboars. The candidates were confined to their small signboards, and had a hard time competing with the huge billboards of commercialized Buddhism. Posters could only be placed at boards provided for by state and local government authorities, but not at private places, such as housewalls. The otherwise well-liked banners hanging on fences and from ceilings of shops were also prohibited in this election by the ECT.
“Does it mean a country will be better without any division or different points of view?” >> Perhaps, it is time to consider the meaning of “division” and “difference”, including the context of the discourse on “division” that has developed in Thailand.
randomthaiguy4thailand: Some random thoughts from your post:
The end of the monarchy may be a laudable objective. The Nepalis have shown the way forward!
In Thailand, I don’t think PPP are the ones to end the monarchy. The monarchy are likely to do that for themselves if they insist on continually trying to manage democratic politics. It is clear that the old men who run the monarchy have been unable to do this over the past 16 months. They tried and failed. Sure, they are scared by PPP. They were also mortified by the demonstrations against Prem. They also realise that the good PPP election showing is a vote against their intervention in politics.
They clearly have some thinking to do.
They need to ensure the monarchy’s position. Maybe the death of Galayani, which can’t be far off, will be an opportunity for more grand shows of allegiance.
However, the polls show that their political time and their influence is more limited than they had imagined.
If one looks for the silver lining in the election, it is that the people of the N and NE have shown great determination not to be dictated to any more. Indeed, it seems the military were the big buyers of votes in those regions, and they largely failed!
That’s a good lesson for the military. Their royalist coup failed.
I think the military-royalist coalition now has a choice. Back away and support democratic development or use the bureaucracy and military (through the security laws and constitution they engineered) to limit popular sovereignty. If they opt for the second path (and maybe they are so arrogant that they will), then they risk their own privileged positions.
If they form the government no doubt they will once again be destabilized by the king and the royalists
If you took your blinkers off Republican, you might see that TRT destabilized itself, and the same thing is likely to happen to a PPP government once they show their true colors.
(Tax havens, Nominees, Extra-judicial killings, Tax avoidance, Policy Corruption, Arrogance etc – put it all together and you get destabilization)
I have a friend up north telling me that they did a switcharoo with the ballot boxes in a town near chaingmai. I personally believe, as my opinion only and not a fact, that this is extremely possible. because of a certain ex priminister with deeeep pockets. When money is given to poor country farmers they feel obligated to return the favor. to a poor farmer up north 1000 baht is an entire month wage. but that 1000 baht also keeps him poor. it grantees that he, and his children will not have a chance to make it to the middle class. When bribes are accepted …. it takes the money away from the future (the children, for new schools, for better hospitals, etc. ) The PPP wants to dissolve the educated middle class, they are the one that see what is happening. The majority Poor do not understand … and i do not blame them. rarely is the majority ever right. (Jesus vs the Jews would be a great example) I only wish they could help themselves. But they cant when the upperclass keeps supressing them. HRM the King, wants his people to think for themselves. not get bribed to change their minds. I will never change my mind for any amount of money. (An American Presidential candidate help me see this) If i think your ugly …. damn right your ugly…. a million dollars will not make me think differently. If the PPP come into power i see the end of the monarchy… i see rich people …. and i see slaves. call my views harsh…
King’s speech – Unlikely there will be another coup just yet:
I see that the king gave another speech on Friday 21st December at a loyalty oath-swearing ceremony for military and police generals, where he appeared again to signal that a coup was not the best way out of the difficulty the royalists find themselves in right now (see my earlier post on this topic: http://rspas.anu.edu.au/rmap/newmandala/2007/12/18/table-46/#comment-277404) . (By the way, was this ceremony deliberately scheduled 2 days before the election, or is it held this time every year; does someone know?)
As I said in the earlier post, I think another coup would be extremely damaging for the king and the royalists, maybe fatal, and they will do everything they can to avoid it. So, this may mean that PPP will play the game a little harder, given that the royalists will be loth to play the coup card. Maybe this explains why Samak didn’t waste any time after the election re-confirming his intention to seek an amnesty for the 111 TRT executives if he became PM.
Whether they form the government or not (my guess is not), PPP is in a position of strength right now.
If they form the government no doubt they will once again be destabilized by the king and the royalists. In the longer term this will work in the PPP’s favour. The more the PPP can draw the king and the royalists out into the open, expose their constant political interference in the democratic process (while all the time declaring their loyalty to the throne), the greater the electoral gain for the PPP. If they can manage the amnesty for the 111 TRT execs, start the process of amending or abandoning the 2007 Constitution, then dissolve parliament and call another election, they will be in an even stronger position.
But my feeling is that, given the royalist regime’s destruction of TRT, they will be terrified that in government PPP will take their revenge and retake control of the levers of power (for example, after everything that Samak has said one would think that if PPP were in government Prem would have to be neutralized at some stage). For this reason the royalists will need the king’s assistance to engineer a Democrat-led government.
But in opposition it will be very easy for PPP to itself destabilize the Democrat-led government given their numbers. And if the economic situation continues to deteriorate all they have to do is to point to the TRT’s better record on the economy. Similar outcome: it is unlikely the government could last. A new election would be called in which PPP would likely do even better, given the failure of the Democrat-led government. PPP forms the new government, the 111 TRT execs are pardoned, moves are made to amend the Constitution, especially to get rid of the 74 appointed Senators, the most glaring anti-democratic aspect of an anti-democratic Constititution. So it’s almost back to pre-September 19 2006, and close to a total failure for the royalists.
Such an outcome would be maybe the most important step in the political neutralization of the monarchy in 50 years, and a big step forward for Thai democracy.
I said: In the end, this village voted strongly for PPP (75%). It had been a strong TRT village in 2005, but should have stated: In the end, this village voted strongly for Phua Paendin (75%). It had been a strong TRT village in 2005.
The figures for the proportional seats at the ECT website are behind those given at the Nation website, that is the vote totals are lower. How can this be? Where is the Nation getting its figures from if not from the ECT?
I do believe the military gave tacit support to PP and were hoping that PP would eat into the PPP’s support in the North East. The Democrats and the military aren’t exactly big fans of each other, but the only reason the military were approving Abhisit’s PM-run is because they felt he wouldn’t confront them or any grey-haired men out in the open.
I truly feel that this election is more the failure of the PP than any other party. Chart Thai have proved they are always a force to be reckoned with. MT imploded, and RuamJaiCP never had a strong political base anyways. It would be interesting if these factions PP, CT, MT, RCP, joined forces to be the ‘third alternative’ under a single banner. However, I find it unlikely as all these leaders are hyenas looking for the best piece of meat.
Again, my conclusion, PP is the biggest failure of this election. Democrats have a lot to be proud about, and PPP have the most to be happy about.
I think you are misrepresenting his point. He is simply making a statement with no sense of judgement that the whole country should have voted in ‘absolute’ terms. Like most people, he was hoping the election would bring about some type of political stability so we can look forward to a new beginning. However, the divisive PPP (who ran a very negative campaign against every party) came out on top. Now, with the history of TRT, the small/medium parties are scared of joining because they don’t want to be eaten again, on the other hand, they don’t want to miss out on forming a government and get their share of the spoils…
Does it mean a country will be better without any division or different points of view? No, absolutely not. But essentially, as the PPP were so insistent on their plans for amnesty and clearing Thaksin’s name, they didn’t get a popular mandate for that. So while the gentlemanly rules gives PPP the choice to form the government, they really cannot run on the schemes they were planning to run. It may work for them, after the fall of government, they can say they need more votes to ‘clear’ Thaksin’s good name.
On the other hand, a quick second election might work against PPP especially now that the military has shown that they will accept the result whichever way it falls, meaning that the PPP can no longer garner anti-Junta votes any more.
Now, I am only stating my point of view and analysis on the current events here, and I have refrained from giving my personal preference (as the title of this post is ‘analysis’). So before anyone starts sniping me personally, I ask you stick to the points mentioned.
Apologies that this is late; I was in the countryside and had limited access to the internet. It may still be of interest to some.
This brief report is impressionistic and based on limited visits and discussions. I drove from Bangkok to Korat via the Cholburi highway then to Chachongsao to Wang Nam Khieow, via Highway 304, and then to Korat city. I visited various sites around Korat – Amphurs Sung Noen, Non Daeng, Muang and Si Khiew. In Korat city I visited the local election commission office and a number of other government offices (following Democrat canvassers). In Non Daeng, I visited a village and the district office. I did not talk to a huge number of people, and was mainly observing. I did speak with a couple of candidates, both Democrats.
The first impression, following a few days in Bangkok, was that usual election advertising declined quickly as one moved into the NE. I am not sure if this is common, but by the time I got to Korat city, there were almost no election posters displayed. Given that they fill every space in Bangkok, it was interesting to see so few posters in Korat. In the city, finding a poster is difficult indeed. One of the campaign managers for the Democrats told me that this was because the electoral laws did not permit much advertising. When I pointed out that Bangkok was flooded with advertising, he simply shrugged.
Out in the villages, in Wang Nam Khieow down to Pakthongchai, I noticed plenty of posters along the road – still less than in Prachinburi. In Non Daeng, I saw very few posters, mainly on the main roads, but very sparse indeed. Not one house in the two villages I visited had any poster displayed.
In one village, where I had more time, the villagers I spoke with claimed to have almost no election information. The only printed information seemed to be the official booklet on all parties. The villagers claimed to be very confused about the election; this was two days prior to the ballot. They claim to know nothing about policies or the candidates. All claimed that this was very different from previous elections.
In this village, my informants claimed that no money had yet been paid to them for votes, but that they suspected that village heads and kamnan were being paid by several parties. When about 100 villagers were bussed from this village to the amphur for an evening election talk by the Ruam Jai Thai Chart Pattana, the rumour was that the village organizers were being paid per head for the villagers they delivered to the two-hour meeting. About 1,000 showed up. On the same evening, a Democrat rally some 100 kilometres away apparently had 200-300 people show up. When paying for votes is discussed, Phua Paendin is often mentioned, but again in the context of community leaders. Machima was said to have paid weeks ago; way too early it was said.
Hua khanaen viewed the counting. Maybe money would have been paid to villagers following the result.
Adding to the confusion in this village, quite large numbers of people had been removed from the electoral role. At one time, some 40% of voters had reportedly been removed, apparently on the orders of the district officer. An interview on Channel 11 with the deputy secretary of the Ministry of Interior indicated that this practice was widespread and unlawful.
In this village, however, some names have been added back. One woman I spoke with had argued at length with the headman, saying that removing people from the roll was illegal just because they weren’t in the house when he visited. He reportedly argued that he was following orders to remove all names of people not in residence when he visited the household. This woman’s household had 8 on the household register, and 4 were removed. Two of these have been added back since then. One of these had to talk with the village head, deputy head, the local election official (a teacher) and two deputy district officers. The family women (3 of them) patiently harassed each of these officials until a document was issued to allow the women to get her right to vote back. Apparently this removal depended on the district officer, as in Phimai district this seemed not to have happened (according to relatives of these women living in that district).
In the end, this village voted strongly for PPP (75%). It had been a strong TRT village in 2005.
Meanwhile, back in Korat city the election campaign was virtually invisible. The Provincial Office has a big platform set up, but nothing else is visible, apart from a few signs on official buildings urging people to vote and to shun vote-buying. There have been big rallies for most parties, and candidates are canvassing, including inside government offices.
Democrat candidates seem resigned to the support that will go to other parties. They are Aphisit supporters, but seem to be mostly left to their own devices in the area. It seems that the Democrats have almost no local organization. Rather, the teams seem to be the candidates’ personal staff and supporters. Some of the comments I heard suggest that there is some concern that the factions in the party are undermining each other already, apparently on the basis that Aphisit is not going to look good at the head of a party that looks like it will be defeated by the PPP. Chuan people seem to be seeking to replace Aphisit. Chuan and others reportedly spoke in Korat and didn’t mention the party leader at all.
Meanwhile, on election day, in a village in Amphur Na Dee (Prachinburi), a headman told me that removing people’s names from the roll was ordered by “higher ups” who wanted a big percentage turnout. This was said to have been a problem during the constitutional referendum. The headman said he’d been told that the higher the turnout, the more democracy there was. So they removed as many people as possible because they had a target turnout figure to meet.
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All comments are interesting. What wil be the role of the Electoral Commission?
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Wow, randomthaiguy, your analysis is so accurately based on fact (and not hearsay) and logic that I am stunned.
Thaksin is out to destroy the educated, smart, wise, hardworking, virtuous middle class!
While the poor are still stupid and rotten and undeserving of their ballots! Oh if only landowners were allowed to vote!
And Thaksin is still in control of elections officials, so much so as to be able to switch ballot boxes, influence exit polls, and basically conspire to hijack the entire election!
Woe to us!
P.S. So what is it, did Thaksin pay the villagers OR did he do the ballot switching? If he did pay the villagers, wouldn’t the ballot box switching be useless? If he could switch ballot boxes, why would he bother paying them off?
If the generals won’t accept the people’s mandate, why hold an election?
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Re: randomthaiguy4thailand
Concerning your post No.8:
Wow! Class hatred and anti-Semitism (via replacement theology) in the same post! You should have added a little sexism and gone for the trifecta.
You wrote, “rarely is the majority ever right.”
Indeed. That’s why I agree with your sentiment that we need an elite cabal to micromanage the lives of the general populace. However, the question remains, should our elites be composed of conservative industrial-military aristocrats or leftist academic technocrats? It’s a shame we can’t have a democratic vote as to which group should compose our elitist cabal due to that “certain ex priminister [sic] with deeeep pockets“. And by a ” certain ex priminster” you mean Prem, right?
Since, randomthaiguy4thailand, I’m guessing the sarcasm of the previous paragraph will elude you, allow me to say this; as someone who practiced Judaism for 27 years before entering another spiritual path, forgive me if I believe the Jewish majority of 1st-century Judea were “correct” in your particular example. It’s just a shame that the Roman elites had to interfere. (By the way, just when is “Jesus vs the Jews in 3-D” coming out on DVD? I missed it when it was playing at the local cinema.)
The King Never Smiles?
Re-Pub:
For the sake of the argument (and maybe Andrew can put this all on a new subject/thread), I’m not sure Thaksin/PPP have the upper hand in the short-medium term, even if in the long run it seems inevitable the palace cedes power to politicians.
I think the military-palace alliance signalled where the line is and where they think Thaksin went too far. Their threat is still out there, whatever the king’s words — which he has said in the past (“we have to not use our arms but work together with the people in unity” he always says).
Thaksin and the “hotheads” around him — those that the military regards as “communists,” Chang Noi told us — are probably itching more than ever for revenge. But the military has also made clear it won’t be toyed with.
Moreover, in the past year Thaksin’s men have been pushed out of key positions in the military, while Prem-palace allies have come up. It would take Thaksin several years to wrest back control, and the first thing he would have to do — ironically — would be to approve the military’s massive wishlist, which would just strengthen their position vis-a-vis civilian politicians.
So while we can say that the election was a message from the people to the military to not think it can control the country, the past 15 months was this message from the military to the people and politicians: “don’t f**k with us or our mates in the palace.”
In short: don’t make the mistake of ruling out any more coups.
Analysis
Historicus, thanks very much for your impressions.
Your observations re election advertising in Korat are very similar to Chachoengsao municipality. The town itself was virtually advertising free, except for the about eight locations that the muncipality had designated as places were the candidates could place their signboards. Thus, the “sign space” in the municipality was dominated by commercial signs and those representing Nation, Religion, Monarchy. Same in the small Sanam Chai Khet municipality.
As well, outside of the muncipal area, the number of small signboards increased. When I accompanied the director of constituency 1 through endless rural roads, almost all intersections, or where two rural roads met, had signboards. This was all the more visible as there is little color other than green and grey in these areas. At major interersections, only the election commission was allowed to place big billboars. The candidates were confined to their small signboards, and had a hard time competing with the huge billboards of commercialized Buddhism. Posters could only be placed at boards provided for by state and local government authorities, but not at private places, such as housewalls. The otherwise well-liked banners hanging on fences and from ceilings of shops were also prohibited in this election by the ECT.
Analysis
“Does it mean a country will be better without any division or different points of view?” >> Perhaps, it is time to consider the meaning of “division” and “difference”, including the context of the discourse on “division” that has developed in Thailand.
New Mandala’s live Thai election coverage
randomthaiguy4thailand: Some random thoughts from your post:
The end of the monarchy may be a laudable objective. The Nepalis have shown the way forward!
In Thailand, I don’t think PPP are the ones to end the monarchy. The monarchy are likely to do that for themselves if they insist on continually trying to manage democratic politics. It is clear that the old men who run the monarchy have been unable to do this over the past 16 months. They tried and failed. Sure, they are scared by PPP. They were also mortified by the demonstrations against Prem. They also realise that the good PPP election showing is a vote against their intervention in politics.
They clearly have some thinking to do.
They need to ensure the monarchy’s position. Maybe the death of Galayani, which can’t be far off, will be an opportunity for more grand shows of allegiance.
However, the polls show that their political time and their influence is more limited than they had imagined.
If one looks for the silver lining in the election, it is that the people of the N and NE have shown great determination not to be dictated to any more. Indeed, it seems the military were the big buyers of votes in those regions, and they largely failed!
That’s a good lesson for the military. Their royalist coup failed.
I think the military-royalist coalition now has a choice. Back away and support democratic development or use the bureaucracy and military (through the security laws and constitution they engineered) to limit popular sovereignty. If they opt for the second path (and maybe they are so arrogant that they will), then they risk their own privileged positions.
The King Never Smiles?
If they form the government no doubt they will once again be destabilized by the king and the royalists
If you took your blinkers off Republican, you might see that TRT destabilized itself, and the same thing is likely to happen to a PPP government once they show their true colors.
(Tax havens, Nominees, Extra-judicial killings, Tax avoidance, Policy Corruption, Arrogance etc – put it all together and you get destabilization)
PS. Merry Xmas to all at New Mandala.
New Mandala’s live Thai election coverage
I have a friend up north telling me that they did a switcharoo with the ballot boxes in a town near chaingmai. I personally believe, as my opinion only and not a fact, that this is extremely possible. because of a certain ex priminister with deeeep pockets. When money is given to poor country farmers they feel obligated to return the favor. to a poor farmer up north 1000 baht is an entire month wage. but that 1000 baht also keeps him poor. it grantees that he, and his children will not have a chance to make it to the middle class. When bribes are accepted …. it takes the money away from the future (the children, for new schools, for better hospitals, etc. ) The PPP wants to dissolve the educated middle class, they are the one that see what is happening. The majority Poor do not understand … and i do not blame them. rarely is the majority ever right. (Jesus vs the Jews would be a great example) I only wish they could help themselves. But they cant when the upperclass keeps supressing them. HRM the King, wants his people to think for themselves. not get bribed to change their minds. I will never change my mind for any amount of money. (An American Presidential candidate help me see this) If i think your ugly …. damn right your ugly…. a million dollars will not make me think differently. If the PPP come into power i see the end of the monarchy… i see rich people …. and i see slaves. call my views harsh…
The King Never Smiles?
King’s speech – Unlikely there will be another coup just yet:
I see that the king gave another speech on Friday 21st December at a loyalty oath-swearing ceremony for military and police generals, where he appeared again to signal that a coup was not the best way out of the difficulty the royalists find themselves in right now (see my earlier post on this topic: http://rspas.anu.edu.au/rmap/newmandala/2007/12/18/table-46/#comment-277404) . (By the way, was this ceremony deliberately scheduled 2 days before the election, or is it held this time every year; does someone know?)
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As I said in the earlier post, I think another coup would be extremely damaging for the king and the royalists, maybe fatal, and they will do everything they can to avoid it. So, this may mean that PPP will play the game a little harder, given that the royalists will be loth to play the coup card. Maybe this explains why Samak didn’t waste any time after the election re-confirming his intention to seek an amnesty for the 111 TRT executives if he became PM.
Whether they form the government or not (my guess is not), PPP is in a position of strength right now.
If they form the government no doubt they will once again be destabilized by the king and the royalists. In the longer term this will work in the PPP’s favour. The more the PPP can draw the king and the royalists out into the open, expose their constant political interference in the democratic process (while all the time declaring their loyalty to the throne), the greater the electoral gain for the PPP. If they can manage the amnesty for the 111 TRT execs, start the process of amending or abandoning the 2007 Constitution, then dissolve parliament and call another election, they will be in an even stronger position.
But my feeling is that, given the royalist regime’s destruction of TRT, they will be terrified that in government PPP will take their revenge and retake control of the levers of power (for example, after everything that Samak has said one would think that if PPP were in government Prem would have to be neutralized at some stage). For this reason the royalists will need the king’s assistance to engineer a Democrat-led government.
But in opposition it will be very easy for PPP to itself destabilize the Democrat-led government given their numbers. And if the economic situation continues to deteriorate all they have to do is to point to the TRT’s better record on the economy. Similar outcome: it is unlikely the government could last. A new election would be called in which PPP would likely do even better, given the failure of the Democrat-led government. PPP forms the new government, the 111 TRT execs are pardoned, moves are made to amend the Constitution, especially to get rid of the 74 appointed Senators, the most glaring anti-democratic aspect of an anti-democratic Constititution. So it’s almost back to pre-September 19 2006, and close to a total failure for the royalists.
Such an outcome would be maybe the most important step in the political neutralization of the monarchy in 50 years, and a big step forward for Thai democracy.
The King Never Smiles?
When you say you keep reminding yourself of the author’s bias the whole time, did you ever tell yourself about your own?
Look at the evidence, my friend, and make your own judgment.
Analysis
A correction to 17 above:
I said: In the end, this village voted strongly for PPP (75%). It had been a strong TRT village in 2005, but should have stated: In the end, this village voted strongly for Phua Paendin (75%). It had been a strong TRT village in 2005.
Latest Count
The figures for the proportional seats at the ECT website are behind those given at the Nation website, that is the vote totals are lower. How can this be? Where is the Nation getting its figures from if not from the ECT?
Report on Shan conference in London
THANK YOU!
Analysis
In reply to #13,
I do believe the military gave tacit support to PP and were hoping that PP would eat into the PPP’s support in the North East. The Democrats and the military aren’t exactly big fans of each other, but the only reason the military were approving Abhisit’s PM-run is because they felt he wouldn’t confront them or any grey-haired men out in the open.
I truly feel that this election is more the failure of the PP than any other party. Chart Thai have proved they are always a force to be reckoned with. MT imploded, and RuamJaiCP never had a strong political base anyways. It would be interesting if these factions PP, CT, MT, RCP, joined forces to be the ‘third alternative’ under a single banner. However, I find it unlikely as all these leaders are hyenas looking for the best piece of meat.
Again, my conclusion, PP is the biggest failure of this election. Democrats have a lot to be proud about, and PPP have the most to be happy about.
Analysis
Andrew,
I think you are misrepresenting his point. He is simply making a statement with no sense of judgement that the whole country should have voted in ‘absolute’ terms. Like most people, he was hoping the election would bring about some type of political stability so we can look forward to a new beginning. However, the divisive PPP (who ran a very negative campaign against every party) came out on top. Now, with the history of TRT, the small/medium parties are scared of joining because they don’t want to be eaten again, on the other hand, they don’t want to miss out on forming a government and get their share of the spoils…
Does it mean a country will be better without any division or different points of view? No, absolutely not. But essentially, as the PPP were so insistent on their plans for amnesty and clearing Thaksin’s name, they didn’t get a popular mandate for that. So while the gentlemanly rules gives PPP the choice to form the government, they really cannot run on the schemes they were planning to run. It may work for them, after the fall of government, they can say they need more votes to ‘clear’ Thaksin’s good name.
On the other hand, a quick second election might work against PPP especially now that the military has shown that they will accept the result whichever way it falls, meaning that the PPP can no longer garner anti-Junta votes any more.
Now, I am only stating my point of view and analysis on the current events here, and I have refrained from giving my personal preference (as the title of this post is ‘analysis’). So before anyone starts sniping me personally, I ask you stick to the points mentioned.
Analysis
“Would you prefer it if everyone voted the same way?”
Not necessarily, but I do think it would be better if the split was not on such a geographical basis.
Analysis
Apologies that this is late; I was in the countryside and had limited access to the internet. It may still be of interest to some.
This brief report is impressionistic and based on limited visits and discussions. I drove from Bangkok to Korat via the Cholburi highway then to Chachongsao to Wang Nam Khieow, via Highway 304, and then to Korat city. I visited various sites around Korat – Amphurs Sung Noen, Non Daeng, Muang and Si Khiew. In Korat city I visited the local election commission office and a number of other government offices (following Democrat canvassers). In Non Daeng, I visited a village and the district office. I did not talk to a huge number of people, and was mainly observing. I did speak with a couple of candidates, both Democrats.
The first impression, following a few days in Bangkok, was that usual election advertising declined quickly as one moved into the NE. I am not sure if this is common, but by the time I got to Korat city, there were almost no election posters displayed. Given that they fill every space in Bangkok, it was interesting to see so few posters in Korat. In the city, finding a poster is difficult indeed. One of the campaign managers for the Democrats told me that this was because the electoral laws did not permit much advertising. When I pointed out that Bangkok was flooded with advertising, he simply shrugged.
Out in the villages, in Wang Nam Khieow down to Pakthongchai, I noticed plenty of posters along the road – still less than in Prachinburi. In Non Daeng, I saw very few posters, mainly on the main roads, but very sparse indeed. Not one house in the two villages I visited had any poster displayed.
In one village, where I had more time, the villagers I spoke with claimed to have almost no election information. The only printed information seemed to be the official booklet on all parties. The villagers claimed to be very confused about the election; this was two days prior to the ballot. They claim to know nothing about policies or the candidates. All claimed that this was very different from previous elections.
In this village, my informants claimed that no money had yet been paid to them for votes, but that they suspected that village heads and kamnan were being paid by several parties. When about 100 villagers were bussed from this village to the amphur for an evening election talk by the Ruam Jai Thai Chart Pattana, the rumour was that the village organizers were being paid per head for the villagers they delivered to the two-hour meeting. About 1,000 showed up. On the same evening, a Democrat rally some 100 kilometres away apparently had 200-300 people show up. When paying for votes is discussed, Phua Paendin is often mentioned, but again in the context of community leaders. Machima was said to have paid weeks ago; way too early it was said.
Hua khanaen viewed the counting. Maybe money would have been paid to villagers following the result.
Adding to the confusion in this village, quite large numbers of people had been removed from the electoral role. At one time, some 40% of voters had reportedly been removed, apparently on the orders of the district officer. An interview on Channel 11 with the deputy secretary of the Ministry of Interior indicated that this practice was widespread and unlawful.
In this village, however, some names have been added back. One woman I spoke with had argued at length with the headman, saying that removing people from the roll was illegal just because they weren’t in the house when he visited. He reportedly argued that he was following orders to remove all names of people not in residence when he visited the household. This woman’s household had 8 on the household register, and 4 were removed. Two of these have been added back since then. One of these had to talk with the village head, deputy head, the local election official (a teacher) and two deputy district officers. The family women (3 of them) patiently harassed each of these officials until a document was issued to allow the women to get her right to vote back. Apparently this removal depended on the district officer, as in Phimai district this seemed not to have happened (according to relatives of these women living in that district).
In the end, this village voted strongly for PPP (75%). It had been a strong TRT village in 2005.
Meanwhile, back in Korat city the election campaign was virtually invisible. The Provincial Office has a big platform set up, but nothing else is visible, apart from a few signs on official buildings urging people to vote and to shun vote-buying. There have been big rallies for most parties, and candidates are canvassing, including inside government offices.
Democrat candidates seem resigned to the support that will go to other parties. They are Aphisit supporters, but seem to be mostly left to their own devices in the area. It seems that the Democrats have almost no local organization. Rather, the teams seem to be the candidates’ personal staff and supporters. Some of the comments I heard suggest that there is some concern that the factions in the party are undermining each other already, apparently on the basis that Aphisit is not going to look good at the head of a party that looks like it will be defeated by the PPP. Chuan people seem to be seeking to replace Aphisit. Chuan and others reportedly spoke in Korat and didn’t mention the party leader at all.
Meanwhile, on election day, in a village in Amphur Na Dee (Prachinburi), a headman told me that removing people’s names from the roll was ordered by “higher ups” who wanted a big percentage turnout. This was said to have been a problem during the constitutional referendum. The headman said he’d been told that the higher the turnout, the more democracy there was. So they removed as many people as possible because they had a target turnout figure to meet.
Analysis
“It still looks like a very divided country to me.” – would you prefer it if everyone voted the same way?
Analysis
It looks the Democrats ‘pitch’ was accepted reasonably well, except in the north/north east regions (which happens to be where most of the seats are)
Unfortunately, it still looks like a very divided country to me.