“Alasan yang membuat kami bisa yakin dengan hasil ini, walaupun belum ada pengumuman resmi dari KPU adalah adanya Hitung Cepat (Quick Count) yang dilakukan oleh lembaga-lembaga survey yang kredibel di Indonesia”
[…] Prabowo is both idiotic, for thinking that the Indonesian people might be turned from their democratic course, and horribly clever in how he might do that. Ed Aspinal and Marcus Meitzner have given a fascinating account of how Prabowo is likely to try to usurp the vote before the final count (Indonesian translation here). […]
analisis bisa benar jika data benar. gimana bisa yakin, kalau data quick count pada pukul 13.09 WIB dengan suara masuk 13% menunjukkan posisi 52% : 47% kemudian pada pukul 13.19 dengan suara masuk 17% lebih menjadi 47% : 52%
apakah tidak aneh, dalam waktu 14 menit, data bertambah 4%, tapi suara ada yang berkurang 5% dan ada yang bertambah 5%…..? kalau tidak mengikuti proses, bagaimana kita bisa percaya data yang ditayangkan…? CMIIW 🙂
silahkan Pertanyaann anda di alamatkan kpd Lb moerdani dan semua mantan Jendral yg Sakit hati terhadap prabowo. Prabowo tdk ingin ikut kekejian dan keserakahan mrk yg ingin mengambil alih kekuasaan dari tangan Suharto. Yg jelas prabowo melaporkan Rahasia ini ke mertuanya Suharto tp sayang Suharto tdk percaya atas laporan Prabowo, malah termakan laporan para Jendral senior klau prabowolah yg ingin kudeta. Yg berakhir dengan pengusiran prabowo dari istana.
Setuju Mas Yayan, lawan politik dari gerindra terus menerus menjelekkan prabowo, maling teriak maling. gmn ga menang di quick count? Lah semua media electronic n Surat kabar pro ke Jokowi.? Pertanyaannya? Seharusnya kubu gerindra yg merasa di curangi. tapi ini malah terus menerus menjelekkan prabowo. Yg smpai skrng sy tetap pd pendirian saya bahwa prabowo hanyalah korban para mantan Jendral yg Parno dan JELOUS atas kesuksesan yg di raih prabowo.
Thanks for the explanation. I was wondering about the same thing as well. Prabowo mentioned these 16 surveyors on his last Facebook message prior to the election, and because of that, some people seemed to buy Prabowo’s portrayal of the situation.
Would be nice if your reply here could be included in the article though.
Thanks for the comment, Philip. Most of these 16 did not register with the KPU and so could not publish quick count results. Their pre-election surveys cannot be compared–but should be examined: FEM-IPB only surveyed in six provinces; Recto-verso only in West Java (enough said); Forima only in 20 cities, by telephone, and among respondents aged 17-29. LSM distinguished themselves by posting an election day quick count with results totaling more than 100 percent. INES was created by a senior Gerindra official. And so forth.
Jangan putarbalikkan fakta,justru pertanyaannya adalah bagaimana jendral-jendral hitam dibelakang jokowi mencuci tangannya yang berlumuran darah?ingat tragedi tanjung priok,talangsari lampung,penyerbuan kantor pdi 27 juli,kerusuhan 98,seluruh yang terlibak ada di barisan pendukung jokowi,sejarah tidak bisa dibantah dan diputar karena terekam dalam jurnal berita.
[…] democracy is not out of danger. In a series of previous posts (here, here and here) we have warned that Indonesia’s post-Suharto democratic system would be […]
Bego bener edward & marcus ini, analyze this stupid!
1. Yg declare pertama capres no. 2 dan itu baru mencapai 70%. Tujuannya utk membentuk opini lbh dulu ke masyarakat bhw JW-JK menang, seakan-akan Quick Count lbh sah drpd real count KPU.
2. Declare bhw JW-JK pasti menang kcuali dicurangi. Tujuan scenario bsar utk menggugat hit KPU jika beda dg Quick Count, dan minta pilpres ulang. Bisa dilihat hub item 1 & 2 kan?
3. Knp PS ikut declare? Hny utk counter agar posisinya kembali sama, blum ada menang atau kalah. Tujuannya agar masyarakat sadar Quick Count blum sah, smua hrs tunggu putusan KPU.
4. Ini yg aneh … capres no 1 yg declare PS knp capres no 2 yg declare MEGA bkn JW? Emangnya capres MEGA ya? Trus si JW jadi apa? BONEKANYA YA?
“It needs to give the middle classes something in return for bankrolling the state.”
Really enjoyed this thought-provoking article, but the above statement worries me a little if it is a premise for wider conclusions.
As someone who was once the happy recipient of a 35-40K “middle class” monthly salary in Bangkok, I rather remember being pleasantly suprised at how little I was required to “bankroll the Thai state”. In fact I dare say the costs of visas and work permits equalled those of income tax, burdens which one can assume do not fall on the native Thai middle class!
I remember reading how, while in the UK income-based taxation constitutes almost a half of government revenue, in Thailand it is just 10% – rougly the same proportion that is acquired from Beer Chang, Saeng Som and a few other “lower class” sins. Furthermore, property or wealth tax is minimal in Thailand.
On the other side of the coin, government expenditure is directed at middle class Bangkok out of all proportion to national demographics, financing giant infrastructure projects serving the middle class and of course about 30% (?) of government expenditure is recycled as (mostly Bangkok middle class) government service salaries.
Therefore, one must ask, what are we suggesting the urban middle class should get in exchange for NOT bankrolling the Thai state?
An alternative way of looking at it may be that at present the Bangkok middle class is actually doing quite well out of the Thai state without having to unduly bankroll it, and this may be a situation they are keen to preserve.
” I don’t think Prabowo has the grassroots support for widespread street protests”
Since when did one need grassroots support to mobilise protests in Indonesia? There are legions of professional protesters to be bought. All it takes is 50,000 rupiah, a t-short and a nasi bungkus to buy oneself a demonstrator. Political power here is not about how much support one can garner, but how much one can buy.
What do you know about blood?blood is when he(prabowo) defense his country.blood when indonesian people cry because economic down and thr mineral sell to foreign so cheaf an long contract.
Late Soekarno said my struggle was an easy one, just to oust the colonials. Your struggle my people, will be an uphill one as you fight againts ignorance, shallow people, fly by night opportunist and quick rich scheme like corruption. And thugs like Ghazwa exactly the model Soekarno talking about.
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Taktik Permainan Prabowo
“Alasan yang membuat kami bisa yakin dengan hasil ini, walaupun belum ada pengumuman resmi dari KPU adalah adanya Hitung Cepat (Quick Count) yang dilakukan oleh lembaga-lembaga survey yang kredibel di Indonesia”
Menarik sekali ini 🙂
Taktik Permainan Prabowo
[…] Prabowo is both idiotic, for thinking that the Indonesian people might be turned from their democratic course, and horribly clever in how he might do that. Ed Aspinal and Marcus Meitzner have given a fascinating account of how Prabowo is likely to try to usurp the vote before the final count (Indonesian translation here). […]
Taktik Permainan Prabowo
Orang2 jsi mana nich apa karena takut batal bonus jalan2 keLN dll ndak ada yg mau buka data sesungguhnya pan kemaren abis umroh…gak asik ah
Taktik Permainan Prabowo
analisis bisa benar jika data benar. gimana bisa yakin, kalau data quick count pada pukul 13.09 WIB dengan suara masuk 13% menunjukkan posisi 52% : 47% kemudian pada pukul 13.19 dengan suara masuk 17% lebih menjadi 47% : 52%
apakah tidak aneh, dalam waktu 14 menit, data bertambah 4%, tapi suara ada yang berkurang 5% dan ada yang bertambah 5%…..? kalau tidak mengikuti proses, bagaimana kita bisa percaya data yang ditayangkan…? CMIIW 🙂
Taktik Permainan Prabowo
itu taktik buat ngilangin stress hahahaha
Taktik Permainan Prabowo
silahkan Pertanyaann anda di alamatkan kpd Lb moerdani dan semua mantan Jendral yg Sakit hati terhadap prabowo. Prabowo tdk ingin ikut kekejian dan keserakahan mrk yg ingin mengambil alih kekuasaan dari tangan Suharto. Yg jelas prabowo melaporkan Rahasia ini ke mertuanya Suharto tp sayang Suharto tdk percaya atas laporan Prabowo, malah termakan laporan para Jendral senior klau prabowolah yg ingin kudeta. Yg berakhir dengan pengusiran prabowo dari istana.
Taktik Permainan Prabowo
Harus di usut sampai tuntas
Taktik Permainan Prabowo
Setuju Mas Yayan, lawan politik dari gerindra terus menerus menjelekkan prabowo, maling teriak maling. gmn ga menang di quick count? Lah semua media electronic n Surat kabar pro ke Jokowi.? Pertanyaannya? Seharusnya kubu gerindra yg merasa di curangi. tapi ini malah terus menerus menjelekkan prabowo. Yg smpai skrng sy tetap pd pendirian saya bahwa prabowo hanyalah korban para mantan Jendral yg Parno dan JELOUS atas kesuksesan yg di raih prabowo.
How to read a quick count
Thanks for the explanation. I was wondering about the same thing as well. Prabowo mentioned these 16 surveyors on his last Facebook message prior to the election, and because of that, some people seemed to buy Prabowo’s portrayal of the situation.
Would be nice if your reply here could be included in the article though.
How to read a quick count
Thanks for the comment, Philip. Most of these 16 did not register with the KPU and so could not publish quick count results. Their pre-election surveys cannot be compared–but should be examined: FEM-IPB only surveyed in six provinces; Recto-verso only in West Java (enough said); Forima only in 20 cities, by telephone, and among respondents aged 17-29. LSM distinguished themselves by posting an election day quick count with results totaling more than 100 percent. INES was created by a senior Gerindra official. And so forth.
Taktik Permainan Prabowo
Jangan putarbalikkan fakta,justru pertanyaannya adalah bagaimana jendral-jendral hitam dibelakang jokowi mencuci tangannya yang berlumuran darah?ingat tragedi tanjung priok,talangsari lampung,penyerbuan kantor pdi 27 juli,kerusuhan 98,seluruh yang terlibak ada di barisan pendukung jokowi,sejarah tidak bisa dibantah dan diputar karena terekam dalam jurnal berita.
Don’t be fooled – Prabowo (still) wants to get rid of direct presidential elections
[…] democracy is not out of danger. In a series of previous posts (here, here and here) we have warned that Indonesia’s post-Suharto democratic system would be […]
Taktik Permainan Prabowo
Bego bener edward & marcus ini, analyze this stupid!
1. Yg declare pertama capres no. 2 dan itu baru mencapai 70%. Tujuannya utk membentuk opini lbh dulu ke masyarakat bhw JW-JK menang, seakan-akan Quick Count lbh sah drpd real count KPU.
2. Declare bhw JW-JK pasti menang kcuali dicurangi. Tujuan scenario bsar utk menggugat hit KPU jika beda dg Quick Count, dan minta pilpres ulang. Bisa dilihat hub item 1 & 2 kan?
3. Knp PS ikut declare? Hny utk counter agar posisinya kembali sama, blum ada menang atau kalah. Tujuannya agar masyarakat sadar Quick Count blum sah, smua hrs tunggu putusan KPU.
4. Ini yg aneh … capres no 1 yg declare PS knp capres no 2 yg declare MEGA bkn JW? Emangnya capres MEGA ya? Trus si JW jadi apa? BONEKANYA YA?
Prabowo’s game plan
You are ignorant to say there is no vote buying, son. Open your eyes.
Prabowo’s game plan
Please tell me who the “you know who” masterful guy at KPU, what is his affiliation and where he lives. We need to report him to Bawaslu.
Siamese dreams in the time of the junta
“It needs to give the middle classes something in return for bankrolling the state.”
Really enjoyed this thought-provoking article, but the above statement worries me a little if it is a premise for wider conclusions.
As someone who was once the happy recipient of a 35-40K “middle class” monthly salary in Bangkok, I rather remember being pleasantly suprised at how little I was required to “bankroll the Thai state”. In fact I dare say the costs of visas and work permits equalled those of income tax, burdens which one can assume do not fall on the native Thai middle class!
I remember reading how, while in the UK income-based taxation constitutes almost a half of government revenue, in Thailand it is just 10% – rougly the same proportion that is acquired from Beer Chang, Saeng Som and a few other “lower class” sins. Furthermore, property or wealth tax is minimal in Thailand.
On the other side of the coin, government expenditure is directed at middle class Bangkok out of all proportion to national demographics, financing giant infrastructure projects serving the middle class and of course about 30% (?) of government expenditure is recycled as (mostly Bangkok middle class) government service salaries.
Therefore, one must ask, what are we suggesting the urban middle class should get in exchange for NOT bankrolling the Thai state?
An alternative way of looking at it may be that at present the Bangkok middle class is actually doing quite well out of the Thai state without having to unduly bankroll it, and this may be a situation they are keen to preserve.
Prabowo’s game plan
” I don’t think Prabowo has the grassroots support for widespread street protests”
Since when did one need grassroots support to mobilise protests in Indonesia? There are legions of professional protesters to be bought. All it takes is 50,000 rupiah, a t-short and a nasi bungkus to buy oneself a demonstrator. Political power here is not about how much support one can garner, but how much one can buy.
How to read a quick count
Yes, but 5 years ago SBY didn’t declare victory after the quick counts said he got 60% of the votes.
SMRC made a mistake last year on Bali’s governor election.
Taktik Permainan Prabowo
What do you know about blood?blood is when he(prabowo) defense his country.blood when indonesian people cry because economic down and thr mineral sell to foreign so cheaf an long contract.
Prabowo’s game plan
Late Soekarno said my struggle was an easy one, just to oust the colonials. Your struggle my people, will be an uphill one as you fight againts ignorance, shallow people, fly by night opportunist and quick rich scheme like corruption. And thugs like Ghazwa exactly the model Soekarno talking about.