The authors mentioned that Prabowo will appeal to the Constitutional Court claiming irregularities in the vote counting process. In regards to the latter part of your question, I don’t think Prabowo has the grassroots support for widespread street protests. There may be pockets of protest / resistance to the announcement, though such protests are likely to be unsustainable in the long-run. The centralized nature of Prabowo’s campaign, and his reliance on high net-(political)-worth individuals, I suspect, will alienate the majority of voters- pRticularly the urban poor.
Chances of Aksi and Mobilisasi under a Prabowo banner are slim to none.
Prabowo may not be a Bad guy, but most around him are. They are power crazed elitist. They say there are no bad followers, only bad leaders but I tell you this, the ones that can make a good leader look bad are his follwers.
yes but the quick count majority already show the result and jokowi wins. Can prabowo respect democracy too by not buying vote result in KPU in 22 july?
This is what I already predicted too, when both parties claimed to have won the election. But not precisely/accurately like you’ve stated.
It’s highly possible that on 22 July, Prabowo will deny the “real” result from KPU, and claiming that he should be winning rather than losing. And from these false-survey schemes he and his allies built onwards 9th-22th July, it’d be easier for him to move the masses/people who foolishly believed that Prabowo indeed won. At the moment, he’s building a “brainwashed” army of people until 22th July.
And if you also follow the latest news, the Government have agreed on a revision MD3 law. What does that mean? They are trying to weaken/nerf Jokowi’s power as President when he’s elected. All the political Parties who agreed on this revision are parties from Prabowo-Hatta, which are Gerindra, PPP, PAN, PKS, Golkar and Demokrat. This shows how deep-rooted the corruption inside the government of Indonesia is.
I was a prabowo supporter at the begining,but since the ive research some data past and present and watch countless interview from foreign and local press also in inside tips from a few friends thats had met and interview him i kinda pull out
Especially since the big boys joined in like golkar and demokrat..pretty sure that the on going corruption case are not gonna be resolve and sidoharjo too are gonna be put to sleep..the people in sidoharjo are living in shacks while mr ARB and Prabowo met by air service..
I think, in case the KPU announces that Jokowi is the winner, he will appeal to MK. And you know he and his team have the capability to influence and intimidate MK
I know I am going to be slammed for not supporting this article.
The analysis assumes that the coalition is solid, its not. To pull this type of stunt, you need all the other parties willing to stick their neck out and do youe dirty work. I don’t think a PKS Mayor will stick his head out for Prabowo. I just don’t see it. Its even more true with Golkar. Outside of Bakrie and a handful of die hard Bakrie supporters in Golkar, I just don’t see any Golkar mayors or Bupati sticking their neck out to help Prabowo. Tge assumption is that its enough that Prabowo wants to steal the election, and everyone else will follow his every command. Gerindra is very dependent on its coalition partners, and they are dependent on getting their cadres out in the fields to do some dodgy stuff. And we are talking vote buying on a massive scale. Prabowo will have to pay major $$$$ to get the Golkar, PKS and PAN fixers at the local to make it worth the risk. KPK most likely has wiretapped the phone of all the local politician in areas like West Java etc What is the going rate for 10 years in jail/
indonesia is one of the largest democracy in the world, and the world is watching every process of this election. i hope prabowo kept his promise to accept the result as is.
What a shame. I like Jokowi, and I would be more than happy if he is given the mandate by the people. But after reading this article I sincerely feel sorry for Prabowo. This is a smear campaign AGAINST Prabowo for the advantage of Jokowi. This makes me feel like Prabowo is character who is misunderstood. People think so lowly of him, granted, in many merits, but I refuse to believe that he is the bad guy. He is almost always accused of smear campaigning, but this article in itself proves otherwise. I feel you Pak Prabowo.
I think SBY is the key for getting the election result not being tainted. He has a lot to lose if he let Prabowo to manipulate the real count. He needs to maintain his reputation that he has so far as the democratic leader of Indonesia for 10 years. Of course he has some weaknesses, but overall, Indonesia gain a lot of respect internationally under his leadership. He made it obvious that he want to be respected worldwide with his foreign policy of Zero Enemy and a thousand friends. Why would he risk his reputation by letting Prabowo win? A legacy of conducting a successful election at the end of your presidential term is too important for SBY to let go.
Now, I think it is important for Megawati to forget the past and be just a little bit humble, and open the door for reconsiliation with SBY. That would be almost a guarantee of Jokowi-JK as our 7th president and vice president of Indonesia.
I completely agree with this article. Prabowo is using guerilla tactics to manipulate the numbers. For him, it is now or never. He has a gang corruptors and mafia as his backup. They have to win to continue their “reign” in Indonesia.
On the other hand, If you notice, in the night of election day, both candidates visited President Yudhoyono privately and separately. I believe there was some kind of deal between the president with either of candidates. It’s because the president has the strongest string to pull at KPU. And both of candidates are trying to reach to the president to be in their own favor.
So, the real kingmaker at this moment is actually President Yudhoyono. And Yudhoyono should be safer if Jokowi wins. This is due to the fact that when both Yudhoyono and Prabowo were generals, Yudhoyono signed the order in 1998 dismissing Prabowo from the army. Thus the president would be safer with Megawati and Jokowi.
This is amusing. Are you really going to ignore the fact that Rizal Sukma is in Jokowi’s timses? And do you really believe that Jokowi’s team, including Hendropriyono etc, won’t stop at anything either? No one disputes Prabowo may have some tricks up his sleeve, but guys are supposed to be “the experts,” at least try not to seem so biased.
I actually don’t use as many Burmese/Chinese words as others, so translation of the words I used above
1. Paukphaw = Tayoke = Chinese
2. Kalar = Indian
3. Kalar Phru(orPhyu) = Whites
4. Mian Dian = Burma = Mianma = Myanmar
5. Sun-Tzu = some stupid Chinese war-monger!
Well two things:
1. The world is controlled by “insiders” whether it’s finances (insider trading?), American politics (inside the beltway?), Chinese politics (central politburo), etc. etc.
2. I am not sure about the others but I am certainly not an “insider” in Burma. I don’t live there anymore. If one wants real insider information about what happened in Burma over the last 30 years or so, one should interview people like Than Shwe, Tay Zar, Steven Lo (son of the late infamous heroin war-lord Hsinghan Lo), Serge Poon, Khin Nyunt, Maung Aye, … but they won’t tell you the truth (Ne Win and Kyaw Zaw are dead) and that’s why NM (and other semi-intellectuals in the West) has to rely on these so-called “Burma experts” (not me)
People who know won’t tell and people who tell don’t know.
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Prabowo’s game plan
The authors mentioned that Prabowo will appeal to the Constitutional Court claiming irregularities in the vote counting process. In regards to the latter part of your question, I don’t think Prabowo has the grassroots support for widespread street protests. There may be pockets of protest / resistance to the announcement, though such protests are likely to be unsustainable in the long-run. The centralized nature of Prabowo’s campaign, and his reliance on high net-(political)-worth individuals, I suspect, will alienate the majority of voters- pRticularly the urban poor.
Chances of Aksi and Mobilisasi under a Prabowo banner are slim to none.
Prabowo’s game plan
Prabowo may not be a Bad guy, but most around him are. They are power crazed elitist. They say there are no bad followers, only bad leaders but I tell you this, the ones that can make a good leader look bad are his follwers.
Prabowo’s game plan
yes but the quick count majority already show the result and jokowi wins. Can prabowo respect democracy too by not buying vote result in KPU in 22 july?
Anti-democratic? Prabowo’s response
“I am a democrat (applause). I believe in democracy. I was a soldier. I was a professional soldier”.
Soldiers have to follow the chain of command without question. There is no room for democracy in carrying out the duty of a soldier.
Prabowo’s game plan
This is what I already predicted too, when both parties claimed to have won the election. But not precisely/accurately like you’ve stated.
It’s highly possible that on 22 July, Prabowo will deny the “real” result from KPU, and claiming that he should be winning rather than losing. And from these false-survey schemes he and his allies built onwards 9th-22th July, it’d be easier for him to move the masses/people who foolishly believed that Prabowo indeed won. At the moment, he’s building a “brainwashed” army of people until 22th July.
And if you also follow the latest news, the Government have agreed on a revision MD3 law. What does that mean? They are trying to weaken/nerf Jokowi’s power as President when he’s elected. All the political Parties who agreed on this revision are parties from Prabowo-Hatta, which are Gerindra, PPP, PAN, PKS, Golkar and Demokrat. This shows how deep-rooted the corruption inside the government of Indonesia is.
Prabowo’s game plan
Media-media asing mulai ikut campur.. Jangan terprovokasi, ikuti hasil KPU 22 Juli mendatang. Tunjukan bahwa indonesia bukan lagi negara bodoh.
Prabowo’s game plan
I was a prabowo supporter at the begining,but since the ive research some data past and present and watch countless interview from foreign and local press also in inside tips from a few friends thats had met and interview him i kinda pull out
Especially since the big boys joined in like golkar and demokrat..pretty sure that the on going corruption case are not gonna be resolve and sidoharjo too are gonna be put to sleep..the people in sidoharjo are living in shacks while mr ARB and Prabowo met by air service..
Prabowo’s game plan
I think, in case the KPU announces that Jokowi is the winner, he will appeal to MK. And you know he and his team have the capability to influence and intimidate MK
Prabowo’s game plan
“but I refuse to believe that he is the bad guy.”
umm..1998, anyone?
Prabowo’s game plan
I know I am going to be slammed for not supporting this article.
The analysis assumes that the coalition is solid, its not. To pull this type of stunt, you need all the other parties willing to stick their neck out and do youe dirty work. I don’t think a PKS Mayor will stick his head out for Prabowo. I just don’t see it. Its even more true with Golkar. Outside of Bakrie and a handful of die hard Bakrie supporters in Golkar, I just don’t see any Golkar mayors or Bupati sticking their neck out to help Prabowo. Tge assumption is that its enough that Prabowo wants to steal the election, and everyone else will follow his every command. Gerindra is very dependent on its coalition partners, and they are dependent on getting their cadres out in the fields to do some dodgy stuff. And we are talking vote buying on a massive scale. Prabowo will have to pay major $$$$ to get the Golkar, PKS and PAN fixers at the local to make it worth the risk. KPK most likely has wiretapped the phone of all the local politician in areas like West Java etc What is the going rate for 10 years in jail/
Prabowo’s game plan
People like you, are people who prabowo counts on. More people with your attitude and we have him as a president.
Prabowo’s game plan
indonesia is one of the largest democracy in the world, and the world is watching every process of this election. i hope prabowo kept his promise to accept the result as is.
Prabowo’s game plan
What a shame. I like Jokowi, and I would be more than happy if he is given the mandate by the people. But after reading this article I sincerely feel sorry for Prabowo. This is a smear campaign AGAINST Prabowo for the advantage of Jokowi. This makes me feel like Prabowo is character who is misunderstood. People think so lowly of him, granted, in many merits, but I refuse to believe that he is the bad guy. He is almost always accused of smear campaigning, but this article in itself proves otherwise. I feel you Pak Prabowo.
Prabowo’s game plan
I think SBY is the key for getting the election result not being tainted. He has a lot to lose if he let Prabowo to manipulate the real count. He needs to maintain his reputation that he has so far as the democratic leader of Indonesia for 10 years. Of course he has some weaknesses, but overall, Indonesia gain a lot of respect internationally under his leadership. He made it obvious that he want to be respected worldwide with his foreign policy of Zero Enemy and a thousand friends. Why would he risk his reputation by letting Prabowo win? A legacy of conducting a successful election at the end of your presidential term is too important for SBY to let go.
Now, I think it is important for Megawati to forget the past and be just a little bit humble, and open the door for reconsiliation with SBY. That would be almost a guarantee of Jokowi-JK as our 7th president and vice president of Indonesia.
Prabowo’s game plan
I completely agree with this article. Prabowo is using guerilla tactics to manipulate the numbers. For him, it is now or never. He has a gang corruptors and mafia as his backup. They have to win to continue their “reign” in Indonesia.
On the other hand, If you notice, in the night of election day, both candidates visited President Yudhoyono privately and separately. I believe there was some kind of deal between the president with either of candidates. It’s because the president has the strongest string to pull at KPU. And both of candidates are trying to reach to the president to be in their own favor.
So, the real kingmaker at this moment is actually President Yudhoyono. And Yudhoyono should be safer if Jokowi wins. This is due to the fact that when both Yudhoyono and Prabowo were generals, Yudhoyono signed the order in 1998 dismissing Prabowo from the army. Thus the president would be safer with Megawati and Jokowi.
Prabowo’s game plan
[…] http://www.newmandala.org/2014/07/10/prabowos-game-plan/ […]
Prabowo’s game plan
Harusnya kedua pasangan capres bisa menahan diri sampai hasil resmi dari KPU keluar, Dan kedua pasangan tersebut harus mau menerima apapun hasilnya.
Prabowo’s game plan
This is amusing. Are you really going to ignore the fact that Rizal Sukma is in Jokowi’s timses? And do you really believe that Jokowi’s team, including Hendropriyono etc, won’t stop at anything either? No one disputes Prabowo may have some tricks up his sleeve, but guys are supposed to be “the experts,” at least try not to seem so biased.
Rumour, religion and riots in Mandalay
I actually don’t use as many Burmese/Chinese words as others, so translation of the words I used above
1. Paukphaw = Tayoke = Chinese
2. Kalar = Indian
3. Kalar Phru(orPhyu) = Whites
4. Mian Dian = Burma = Mianma = Myanmar
5. Sun-Tzu = some stupid Chinese war-monger!
Rumour, religion and riots in Mandalay
Well two things:
1. The world is controlled by “insiders” whether it’s finances (insider trading?), American politics (inside the beltway?), Chinese politics (central politburo), etc. etc.
2. I am not sure about the others but I am certainly not an “insider” in Burma. I don’t live there anymore. If one wants real insider information about what happened in Burma over the last 30 years or so, one should interview people like Than Shwe, Tay Zar, Steven Lo (son of the late infamous heroin war-lord Hsinghan Lo), Serge Poon, Khin Nyunt, Maung Aye, … but they won’t tell you the truth (Ne Win and Kyaw Zaw are dead) and that’s why NM (and other semi-intellectuals in the West) has to rely on these so-called “Burma experts” (not me)
People who know won’t tell and people who tell don’t know.