I think people are being alarmist. Why? Simple biology. Prabowo will be 63 by the time he takes over. How many Dictators got their start at 63? Stalin, LKY, Hitler, Suharto, Kagame, Gaddafi, Nasser, Marcos, Putin, Park Chun Hee, Chiang Kaishek. Mao, Pol Pot just turned fifty.
Your level of support has to be decent in Parliament, depending on the likes of Golkar/Demokrat is not going to cut it. Gerindra has to have at least 30-40%. Just basing the everything on speculation is absurd. Do you think Golkar, Demokrat would just give the keys to candy store to Prabowo
Come on folks, Bakrie wanted to be made Prime Minister, is this the type of person who just hand over power to Prabowo.
The age factor is important, just assume Prabowo makes himself President for Life in 2024, how many years does he have left at 73. His father and mother died at 83. He might rule for 4-5 years after the two term limit, and would have to seriously think about a successor.
Dictatorship are a young man’s game.. Who will follow him after he dies? Will he rule from the grave?
Do you think the likes of Bakrie will surround power to Prabowo? Or the Islamic parties?
This welcome article begs the question, however – Why was SBY indecisive, dithering and unwilling or unable to make the hard decisions?
I suspect you will find the answers in the murkey corridors of Indonesian money politics. (Ask Hatta.) Who knew what and who had guns held to whose heads.
SBY became president because of money politics – then he had to deliver on the deals and the promises made that got him to the presidency. He had his hands tied from the beginning. Too many favours owing and too many people had the dirt on him – so he had to keep his mouth shut to keep their mouths shut.
As well, I would be surprised if SBY wasn’t distracted for most of his presidency – covering his back and making money.
Ask his wife and son about this.
Why for instance did SBY call a halt to the KPK investigation into Megawati’s husbands ‘legendary’ corruption?
Certainly I agree – this election is as a result of SBY’s bad presidency – described recently in the media as behaving like a king. Megawati was likewise described as thinking she was a queen.
You know, sadly Prabowo ( and Kalla said the same on a trip to China) may well be right: Democracy doesn’t suit Indonesia. The mentality simply isn’t there. Meanwhile feudalism and the cult of personality reigns kept alive by money politics and an abominable asian sense of ‘respect’ and ‘face’. Something I find destetable when you see those who are respected. Or demand respect. Indonesia will get the President and the politicians Indonesia deserves.
What’s going to be really sickening will be the accolades and the testimonials about SBY and what a great man he was and what a great job he did. And a lot of this from foreign governments, not to mention those who hate him in Indonesia. I only hope he doesn’t write a farewell song! Oh – and he couldn’t sing for nuts, either.
I share much of the sentiment expressed here, but I think this is way too high bar. I doubt if anyone seriously think that the US is capable of electing an atheist, for instance
” Indonesia will be democratic when it has a Hindu or atheist President”
The reporters should look at the welfare conditions of the people in Indonesia. Democracy one man one vote is ideal when the social welfare of Indonesian is well. And one man one vote is not the terms according to Indonesian’s ideology PANCASILA on the fourth Sila saying Agreement of Conference or On behalf… Also the political parties is meant representing the voice of the people is considered on behalf.. The Coalition of the Parties electing President is not entirely by agreement to elect Jokowi. So is it not chaos or contrary determining democracy one man one vote… Either Edward Aspinall and Marcus Mietzner is really just foreigners that only interested in utilizing Indonesia for their own welfare … enough said
If Jokowi loses, the PDIP should at long last decide to dump Megawati, who has been using her father’s forged KTP ever since he died. She has been the least impressive of all the daughters or widows of Asian presidents who have come into office themselves or at least head opposition forces (such as Aung San Suu Kyi). A Jokowi defeat would nicely round out Megawati’s astonishing record of ineptitude. Her party scored over 34% in the 1999 parliamentary election, and yet she lacked the nous and energy to get herself elected president, being defeated by Gus Dur whose PKB had won about 11%. Gus Dur kindly insisted that she be voted in as vice-president, though he later enjoyed likening her to an intellectually-challenged little sister. Without his help,offered in a spirit of pluralism, she would never had made it to the palace. In 2004, she lost the presidency to one of her own former ministers. This was a rare accomplishment. In 2009, she lost again. Some Indonesians are now claiming that Puan has a deal with Prabowo to become DPR speaker. This may be no more than inaccurate and spiteful gossip, but who can claim that it is not entirely plausible? It’s high time to throw Sukarno’s incorrigible descendants onto the dustbin of history.
I think you misinterpret “liberal elite”, demographics show that most of Jokowi support is among the lower classes, where as Prabowo is middle/upper class. Indonesia is complicated, and its not just liberal elites vs rest of the population.
If those kids want to be drafted in the TNI to fight separatist conflict in Poso in 5 years time, if Prabowo wants to ecentralize back to JKT, because if Prabowo attempts to do that, there will be civil war. The current system has benefits local elites immensely, and a person like Prabowo will take it away.
Let’s set aside all the BS about democracy and authoritarianism. Basically its a fight between JKT elites and regional elites. from 1960 to 1998, its been JKT elites all the way.
AS for better candidate, Congress in India has been running India for 60+ years its often a Gahdhi leading it. I am impressed the Indonesia could actually field a local level candidate in the third direct presidential election.
I am optimistic for Indonesian democracy, because of the above aspect. But also because of Prabowo’s age. Can you name one dictator who became leader at 62. The vast majority were in their forties Gerindra is weak, and outside Prabowo, they don’t really don’t have one else. Parliamentary system are more likely to become dictatorships than presidential system, because there is no separation of power.
Jokowi is the rakyat’s guy. He has solved a fair bit of Jakarta’s issues. He has relocated a sizable amount of the rakyat into kampung derets (petogoan, tanah tinggi) spread out across a city, complete with kitchens and a green space for the children. He has also cleared out many cisterns to be used as a prevention scheme for the upcoming flood season and hasn’t stopped dredging a countless number of cisterns and reservoirs to be transformed into beautiful parks (taman waduk pluit, taman waduk pulo mas) Another thing, the lelang jabatan has been able to a great extent, sever any ties of nepotism leading to the many respectable positions as prescribed under the mandated laws of the DKI government. This has resulted in an election based on merit and not money politics and it has in the process, embraced a greater diversity of candidates (Bhinneka Tunggal Ika in action). Secondly, Jokowi has proclaimed that neither one of his ministers will be elected trough a process of transactional politics. This means that much like the lelang, the positions being laid out for ministerial roles in the cabinet are supposedly going to be based on an election of merit, unlike the old school “orde baru” style whereby mass nepotism leads to an irreversible cycle of cronyism and the despair for the rakyat. By voting Jokowi, we are purely getting the best bang for the buck. And let’s not forget that Indonesian money economy is comprised largely by the IDX stock market and the bonds market in which roughly 60 % and 30 % of purchasable assets are owned by foreigners, in respective order. If Jokowi wins, this money will not go away in fact, many NGO surveys conducted with foreign entities and CEOs both in and outside of Indonesia have mentioned that if Prabowo wins, 70 % are tempted to sell their assets whereas only a mere 5-10 % would do such a thing if Jokowi won the campaign. Imagine the euphoria of Jokowi winning. The rupiah would strengthen, our stock exchange will grow, our foreign debts would be reduced, our bond yields will improve, our foreign exchange reserves would improve, ultimately driving down the need for imports and driving down the price of basic goods. Then, Jokowi will be able to set out on an odyssey of enabling the greatest country in South-east Asia, the emerald equator that is none other than our beloved Indonesia. Salam dua jari.
Is that so? In the last referendum the Constitution was passed with 57.81% voting in favour. Turnout was just 57.61% of registered voters – i.e fractionally less than 1/3 of the electorate actually voted in favour. Has the law been changed since? I didn’t think it had.
I’m a great admirer of Ms Pisani’s writings; her Indonesia Etc is one of the best books on Indonesia published in recent times. I hope her optimism is fulfilled, but here in East Java the kids, including the brightest, say they are going for Prabowo because he looks tough. They really don’t care about human rights in Papua and claim the allegations come from the Jokowi camp, so obviously suspect. That wouldn’t matter so much if the majority wong kecil (ordinary folk) weren’t singing the same song, which in this neighbourhood they are, loud and clear. If Prabowo wins the fault lies entirely with the liberal elite who sat on their hands for five years while Prabowo skillfully built his following. Jokowi, credible guy though he seems to be, was only pulled in by Megawati when others convinced her she’d lose. Why wasn’t a better candidate groomed? Because the old guard wants to hang onto the power, not some upstart who might be good for the nation. There are a lot of politicians around – though few statesmen and women.
Call me a cock-eyed optimist if you will, but I think this post is a breath of fresh air.
“Politicians will all do dubious deals with large corporations or rich donors, voters appear to reason, they will all steal money one way or another. But they will not all steal your dignity“
Thank you for this robust rebuttal. Too many apologists for Prabowo seem prepared to overlook his record and ignore what he is saying, which is frightening stuff indeed. Interesting that it’s not yet an issue in the mainstream media; it seems many liberals think the reforms have gone so far they can’t be reversed.
i think the problem is the current election law indicated that any referendum requires majority of those with the right to cast their vote (and not the majority of those actually vote) to be viable. With the fact that the best turn out in election was around 75%, it would be difficult for anything to be endorsed by referendum. It is also the reason that the last government was so reluctant to held a referendum on amendment of the constitution.
The majority of Thais are tough,resilience and adaptive people who however have been continuously marginalized by the ruling and urban middle class as reflected in national media. By ignoring their wish and aspiration, the 2007 junta failed to achieve a objective of preventing Thaksin’s affiliated to win the election and the current junta will likely to fail in many aspects of their undertaking for the same reason. It might be early but there are indications on this regards. For example, the junta ordered relocation of passenger mini-bus service from the downtown Victory Monument intersection to less accessible Airport-Link railway station (approx. 7 kilometer away)by July 1, 2014 and causing passngers to wait more than haf a hour for each trip. On July 2, 4,000 mini-buses disappeared from parking spots around the intersection however only around 20 buses were found at the new location at the train station. The rest are believed to be scattered in proximity of the Victory Monument.
Through out the modern history of Thailand, dictators and ruling class have been trying to mold the rest of the country in their own design. These efforts were eventually failed since they have never reach out to people. the amusing thing is the politicians who have been despired by the popular media and autocrates are actually better than both in reaching out to the people, particularly in rural areas.
Last year the author suggested that Indonesia was “a nation of dunces” as an outcome of its poor education system. Does this assessment somehow not apply when it comes to the ability, particularly of younger voters, to critically assess the suitable criteria or track record of national leader? And if so, why not?
Yes Jaidee. Must confess being personally stunned at how blatant and cynical the power grab is, and the fact that they’ve been able to get away with the horribly absurd social and speech controls.
My closest friend in Surin and her very large extended family have been redshirt supporters since I’ve known them, they’re not militant but they see it as the only group truly advocating for them. They’re a confused mess right now emotionally and yes, the fear to speak up is palpable. While I’m no personal fan of Thaksin the man, I can understand their support for the only group that genuinely spoke to them as valued members of the culture.
Curious as to what Andrew and others thoughts are about Thaksin’s silence in all this? Was he intimidated? Deal made behind the scenes? Both? One does get a sense that he’s thrown these folks under the bus and I think as a whole they need to begin to divorce themselves from his influence to move forward. But many aspects of Thailand’s complicated socio-political infrastructure puzzle me.
If only, Prabowo is the president and Jokowi is the vice president. Wouldn’t it be perfect for Indonesia?
A firm idealistic leader, paired with hard working honest administrator on his side.
According to the Bangkok Post today “The NCPO was still concerned that if put to referendum, there is a risk the draft charter might be rejected.”! Doubtless they have not forgotten that, despite all the former junta’s intimidation and conniving, still less than one third of the electorate endorsed the 2007 constitution. Surely the question they should be asking themselves is “how do we write a constitution that we can put to the people fairly and squarely and expect to get a resounding positive response?” But that appears to be incompatible with what they want to achieve.
I still have the feeling that the caterpillar tracks may come off this junta sooner than we all expect. I can’t say that this would necessarily be a good thing because it is impossible to know what the result of that might be. We are still only in the twilight zone; darker days may yet lie ahead.
I am not sure whether New Mandala is just a private blog or more like university kind of newsletter which should be more reliable like journalism.
I suppose people can have their own interpretation of one’s opinion.
I am a business owner who lives in a regency in Indonesia and experiences first hand the effect of money politics on the legislative election last April. People can say on national papers, radio, social media that money politic is bad, is now gone, is against the law. However, i know for sure that it happens and is still wide spread. And it was done by ALL political parties.
Ones who read NM i believe are intelligent people who have interest in Indonesia. I consider myself one, but i may not be as idealistic as others outthere. It is a bit like the chicken and egg thing. Which comes first? People don’t want corruption but people also are reluctant to vote if there is no money involved (not all but most, specially low incomers). Prabowo explained how expensive a campaign can be. And he still have not talk about the cost of holding an election. Or a second round election if needed. It is unbelievable number! That number could have been used for other things like infrastructure, health and education. Its not as bad as fuel subsidy but still, it could be cheaper. It is not far off when they say: election is “people’s party” / “pesta rakyat”. Because it is like a party, this is the time when little people (wong cilik) have extra money to spend.
Barry Wain’s book is critical of Mahathir, but insufficiently so, as I told him myself in 2012, a year before he sadly passed away. There can be no doubt about Ketuanan Melayu and increasing Malay racism, Islamic stridency, UMNO corruption and failed leadership, and seditious statements by Isma and Perkasa. In fact, the IGP and Home Minister made seditious statements and refused to follow federal court orders, a crime in any sane and remotely democratic nation. When Perkasa talks about “Chopping off heads to protect Islam”, it is a little silly to talk about TTP, in a nation, where false converts must remain Muslim, the Home Minister mocks non-Malays, a missing airplane remains missing, and almost all Malaysia Analysts agree that Prime Minister Najib is leading from behind, if leading at all. Many Analysts predict that Najib will step down, or there will be an early election. One does not talk trade or economics with a lame-duck administration. Mahathir continues to bedevil
Malaysia, Najib, and spout bigoted and anti-Semitic drivel as usual. He is widely despised in the US, UK and Australia, even if loved in Zimbabwe, Cuba, Venezuela, Iran, Saudi Arabia and Sudan, all wonderful “democracies”. I repeat, there was never good relations between Mahathir and the United States, the best one can say, is that there
were collaborative arrangements on the economic front. Mahathir restricted military
and some cultural ties. As I know several
Ambassadors from both countries over the course of 35 years, I can confirm this.
Malaysia’s problem is not the TTP, but racism, religious bigotry, and failure to respect the Malaysian Constitution and the Malaysia Agreement of 1963. The Malaysian court system is totally beholden to UMNO. I might add the formal opposition isn’t that much better and is disorganised and has no viable leadership that can counter UMNO. When some Malay NGOs demand that Malaysian-Chinese (“Pendatang”) hand over their businesses and leave the country, as Isma, Perkasa and Abdullah Tee have frequently stated, talking about TTP, when Malaysia is in crisis mode is ridiculous. President Obama’s visit to Malaysia was useless; Susan Rice speaking to Anwar is a joke, as everyone wants to speak with Anwar, when Kassim Ahmad is being held illegally and falsely accused of heresy. Please don’t talk to me about trade relations with Malaysia, when UMNO should be tried internationally for human rights abuses, something President Obama and Prime Minister Cameron do not care about, though Prime Minister Abbott may care a bit more. Thanks for all the references, but I have 40 + years of Malaysia residency behind me.
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Don’t be fooled – Prabowo (still) wants to get rid of direct presidential elections
I think people are being alarmist. Why? Simple biology. Prabowo will be 63 by the time he takes over. How many Dictators got their start at 63? Stalin, LKY, Hitler, Suharto, Kagame, Gaddafi, Nasser, Marcos, Putin, Park Chun Hee, Chiang Kaishek. Mao, Pol Pot just turned fifty.
Your level of support has to be decent in Parliament, depending on the likes of Golkar/Demokrat is not going to cut it. Gerindra has to have at least 30-40%. Just basing the everything on speculation is absurd. Do you think Golkar, Demokrat would just give the keys to candy store to Prabowo
Come on folks, Bakrie wanted to be made Prime Minister, is this the type of person who just hand over power to Prabowo.
The age factor is important, just assume Prabowo makes himself President for Life in 2024, how many years does he have left at 73. His father and mother died at 83. He might rule for 4-5 years after the two term limit, and would have to seriously think about a successor.
Dictatorship are a young man’s game.. Who will follow him after he dies? Will he rule from the grave?
Do you think the likes of Bakrie will surround power to Prabowo? Or the Islamic parties?
Jokowi and Prabowo reflect a decade of frustrations with SBY
This welcome article begs the question, however – Why was SBY indecisive, dithering and unwilling or unable to make the hard decisions?
I suspect you will find the answers in the murkey corridors of Indonesian money politics. (Ask Hatta.) Who knew what and who had guns held to whose heads.
SBY became president because of money politics – then he had to deliver on the deals and the promises made that got him to the presidency. He had his hands tied from the beginning. Too many favours owing and too many people had the dirt on him – so he had to keep his mouth shut to keep their mouths shut.
As well, I would be surprised if SBY wasn’t distracted for most of his presidency – covering his back and making money.
Ask his wife and son about this.
Why for instance did SBY call a halt to the KPK investigation into Megawati’s husbands ‘legendary’ corruption?
Certainly I agree – this election is as a result of SBY’s bad presidency – described recently in the media as behaving like a king. Megawati was likewise described as thinking she was a queen.
You know, sadly Prabowo ( and Kalla said the same on a trip to China) may well be right: Democracy doesn’t suit Indonesia. The mentality simply isn’t there. Meanwhile feudalism and the cult of personality reigns kept alive by money politics and an abominable asian sense of ‘respect’ and ‘face’. Something I find destetable when you see those who are respected. Or demand respect. Indonesia will get the President and the politicians Indonesia deserves.
What’s going to be really sickening will be the accolades and the testimonials about SBY and what a great man he was and what a great job he did. And a lot of this from foreign governments, not to mention those who hate him in Indonesia. I only hope he doesn’t write a farewell song! Oh – and he couldn’t sing for nuts, either.
Indonesians are not idiots
I share much of the sentiment expressed here, but I think this is way too high bar. I doubt if anyone seriously think that the US is capable of electing an atheist, for instance
” Indonesia will be democratic when it has a Hindu or atheist President”
Prabowo Subianto: vote for me, but just the once
The reporters should look at the welfare conditions of the people in Indonesia. Democracy one man one vote is ideal when the social welfare of Indonesian is well. And one man one vote is not the terms according to Indonesian’s ideology PANCASILA on the fourth Sila saying Agreement of Conference or On behalf… Also the political parties is meant representing the voice of the people is considered on behalf.. The Coalition of the Parties electing President is not entirely by agreement to elect Jokowi. So is it not chaos or contrary determining democracy one man one vote… Either Edward Aspinall and Marcus Mietzner is really just foreigners that only interested in utilizing Indonesia for their own welfare … enough said
Jokowi and Prabowo reflect a decade of frustrations with SBY
If Jokowi loses, the PDIP should at long last decide to dump Megawati, who has been using her father’s forged KTP ever since he died. She has been the least impressive of all the daughters or widows of Asian presidents who have come into office themselves or at least head opposition forces (such as Aung San Suu Kyi). A Jokowi defeat would nicely round out Megawati’s astonishing record of ineptitude. Her party scored over 34% in the 1999 parliamentary election, and yet she lacked the nous and energy to get herself elected president, being defeated by Gus Dur whose PKB had won about 11%. Gus Dur kindly insisted that she be voted in as vice-president, though he later enjoyed likening her to an intellectually-challenged little sister. Without his help,offered in a spirit of pluralism, she would never had made it to the palace. In 2004, she lost the presidency to one of her own former ministers. This was a rare accomplishment. In 2009, she lost again. Some Indonesians are now claiming that Puan has a deal with Prabowo to become DPR speaker. This may be no more than inaccurate and spiteful gossip, but who can claim that it is not entirely plausible? It’s high time to throw Sukarno’s incorrigible descendants onto the dustbin of history.
Indonesians are not idiots
I think you misinterpret “liberal elite”, demographics show that most of Jokowi support is among the lower classes, where as Prabowo is middle/upper class. Indonesia is complicated, and its not just liberal elites vs rest of the population.
If those kids want to be drafted in the TNI to fight separatist conflict in Poso in 5 years time, if Prabowo wants to ecentralize back to JKT, because if Prabowo attempts to do that, there will be civil war. The current system has benefits local elites immensely, and a person like Prabowo will take it away.
Let’s set aside all the BS about democracy and authoritarianism. Basically its a fight between JKT elites and regional elites. from 1960 to 1998, its been JKT elites all the way.
AS for better candidate, Congress in India has been running India for 60+ years its often a Gahdhi leading it. I am impressed the Indonesia could actually field a local level candidate in the third direct presidential election.
I am optimistic for Indonesian democracy, because of the above aspect. But also because of Prabowo’s age. Can you name one dictator who became leader at 62. The vast majority were in their forties Gerindra is weak, and outside Prabowo, they don’t really don’t have one else. Parliamentary system are more likely to become dictatorships than presidential system, because there is no separation of power.
Prabowo Subianto: vote for me, but just the once
Jokowi is the rakyat’s guy. He has solved a fair bit of Jakarta’s issues. He has relocated a sizable amount of the rakyat into kampung derets (petogoan, tanah tinggi) spread out across a city, complete with kitchens and a green space for the children. He has also cleared out many cisterns to be used as a prevention scheme for the upcoming flood season and hasn’t stopped dredging a countless number of cisterns and reservoirs to be transformed into beautiful parks (taman waduk pluit, taman waduk pulo mas) Another thing, the lelang jabatan has been able to a great extent, sever any ties of nepotism leading to the many respectable positions as prescribed under the mandated laws of the DKI government. This has resulted in an election based on merit and not money politics and it has in the process, embraced a greater diversity of candidates (Bhinneka Tunggal Ika in action). Secondly, Jokowi has proclaimed that neither one of his ministers will be elected trough a process of transactional politics. This means that much like the lelang, the positions being laid out for ministerial roles in the cabinet are supposedly going to be based on an election of merit, unlike the old school “orde baru” style whereby mass nepotism leads to an irreversible cycle of cronyism and the despair for the rakyat. By voting Jokowi, we are purely getting the best bang for the buck. And let’s not forget that Indonesian money economy is comprised largely by the IDX stock market and the bonds market in which roughly 60 % and 30 % of purchasable assets are owned by foreigners, in respective order. If Jokowi wins, this money will not go away in fact, many NGO surveys conducted with foreign entities and CEOs both in and outside of Indonesia have mentioned that if Prabowo wins, 70 % are tempted to sell their assets whereas only a mere 5-10 % would do such a thing if Jokowi won the campaign. Imagine the euphoria of Jokowi winning. The rupiah would strengthen, our stock exchange will grow, our foreign debts would be reduced, our bond yields will improve, our foreign exchange reserves would improve, ultimately driving down the need for imports and driving down the price of basic goods. Then, Jokowi will be able to set out on an odyssey of enabling the greatest country in South-east Asia, the emerald equator that is none other than our beloved Indonesia. Salam dua jari.
Thai coup: The debate continues
Is that so? In the last referendum the Constitution was passed with 57.81% voting in favour. Turnout was just 57.61% of registered voters – i.e fractionally less than 1/3 of the electorate actually voted in favour. Has the law been changed since? I didn’t think it had.
Indonesians are not idiots
I’m a great admirer of Ms Pisani’s writings; her Indonesia Etc is one of the best books on Indonesia published in recent times. I hope her optimism is fulfilled, but here in East Java the kids, including the brightest, say they are going for Prabowo because he looks tough. They really don’t care about human rights in Papua and claim the allegations come from the Jokowi camp, so obviously suspect. That wouldn’t matter so much if the majority wong kecil (ordinary folk) weren’t singing the same song, which in this neighbourhood they are, loud and clear. If Prabowo wins the fault lies entirely with the liberal elite who sat on their hands for five years while Prabowo skillfully built his following. Jokowi, credible guy though he seems to be, was only pulled in by Megawati when others convinced her she’d lose. Why wasn’t a better candidate groomed? Because the old guard wants to hang onto the power, not some upstart who might be good for the nation. There are a lot of politicians around – though few statesmen and women.
Condemnation of the coup
US DOD? well, if the sanctions are true, the NSA won’t be helping Prayuth. But who knows?
Indonesians are not idiots
Call me a cock-eyed optimist if you will, but I think this post is a breath of fresh air.
“Politicians will all do dubious deals with large corporations or rich donors, voters appear to reason, they will all steal money one way or another. But they will not all steal your dignity“
Anyway, we shall see.
Don’t be fooled – Prabowo (still) wants to get rid of direct presidential elections
Thank you for this robust rebuttal. Too many apologists for Prabowo seem prepared to overlook his record and ignore what he is saying, which is frightening stuff indeed. Interesting that it’s not yet an issue in the mainstream media; it seems many liberals think the reforms have gone so far they can’t be reversed.
Thai coup: The debate continues
Dear Sceptic
i think the problem is the current election law indicated that any referendum requires majority of those with the right to cast their vote (and not the majority of those actually vote) to be viable. With the fact that the best turn out in election was around 75%, it would be difficult for anything to be endorsed by referendum. It is also the reason that the last government was so reluctant to held a referendum on amendment of the constitution.
Thai coup: The debate continues
The majority of Thais are tough,resilience and adaptive people who however have been continuously marginalized by the ruling and urban middle class as reflected in national media. By ignoring their wish and aspiration, the 2007 junta failed to achieve a objective of preventing Thaksin’s affiliated to win the election and the current junta will likely to fail in many aspects of their undertaking for the same reason. It might be early but there are indications on this regards. For example, the junta ordered relocation of passenger mini-bus service from the downtown Victory Monument intersection to less accessible Airport-Link railway station (approx. 7 kilometer away)by July 1, 2014 and causing passngers to wait more than haf a hour for each trip. On July 2, 4,000 mini-buses disappeared from parking spots around the intersection however only around 20 buses were found at the new location at the train station. The rest are believed to be scattered in proximity of the Victory Monument.
Through out the modern history of Thailand, dictators and ruling class have been trying to mold the rest of the country in their own design. These efforts were eventually failed since they have never reach out to people. the amusing thing is the politicians who have been despired by the popular media and autocrates are actually better than both in reaching out to the people, particularly in rural areas.
Indonesians are not idiots
Last year the author suggested that Indonesia was “a nation of dunces” as an outcome of its poor education system. Does this assessment somehow not apply when it comes to the ability, particularly of younger voters, to critically assess the suitable criteria or track record of national leader? And if so, why not?
Thai coup: The debate continues
Yes Jaidee. Must confess being personally stunned at how blatant and cynical the power grab is, and the fact that they’ve been able to get away with the horribly absurd social and speech controls.
My closest friend in Surin and her very large extended family have been redshirt supporters since I’ve known them, they’re not militant but they see it as the only group truly advocating for them. They’re a confused mess right now emotionally and yes, the fear to speak up is palpable. While I’m no personal fan of Thaksin the man, I can understand their support for the only group that genuinely spoke to them as valued members of the culture.
Curious as to what Andrew and others thoughts are about Thaksin’s silence in all this? Was he intimidated? Deal made behind the scenes? Both? One does get a sense that he’s thrown these folks under the bus and I think as a whole they need to begin to divorce themselves from his influence to move forward. But many aspects of Thailand’s complicated socio-political infrastructure puzzle me.
Jokowi and Prabowo reflect a decade of frustrations with SBY
Excellent article.
It makes me have a wishful thinking.
If only, Prabowo is the president and Jokowi is the vice president. Wouldn’t it be perfect for Indonesia?
A firm idealistic leader, paired with hard working honest administrator on his side.
Oh wait, did we have that before? SBY and JK?
🙂
Thai coup: The debate continues
Good post, jaidee.
According to the Bangkok Post today “The NCPO was still concerned that if put to referendum, there is a risk the draft charter might be rejected.”! Doubtless they have not forgotten that, despite all the former junta’s intimidation and conniving, still less than one third of the electorate endorsed the 2007 constitution. Surely the question they should be asking themselves is “how do we write a constitution that we can put to the people fairly and squarely and expect to get a resounding positive response?” But that appears to be incompatible with what they want to achieve.
I still have the feeling that the caterpillar tracks may come off this junta sooner than we all expect. I can’t say that this would necessarily be a good thing because it is impossible to know what the result of that might be. We are still only in the twilight zone; darker days may yet lie ahead.
Anti-democratic? Prabowo’s response
I am not sure whether New Mandala is just a private blog or more like university kind of newsletter which should be more reliable like journalism.
I suppose people can have their own interpretation of one’s opinion.
I am a business owner who lives in a regency in Indonesia and experiences first hand the effect of money politics on the legislative election last April. People can say on national papers, radio, social media that money politic is bad, is now gone, is against the law. However, i know for sure that it happens and is still wide spread. And it was done by ALL political parties.
Ones who read NM i believe are intelligent people who have interest in Indonesia. I consider myself one, but i may not be as idealistic as others outthere. It is a bit like the chicken and egg thing. Which comes first? People don’t want corruption but people also are reluctant to vote if there is no money involved (not all but most, specially low incomers). Prabowo explained how expensive a campaign can be. And he still have not talk about the cost of holding an election. Or a second round election if needed. It is unbelievable number! That number could have been used for other things like infrastructure, health and education. Its not as bad as fuel subsidy but still, it could be cheaper. It is not far off when they say: election is “people’s party” / “pesta rakyat”. Because it is like a party, this is the time when little people (wong cilik) have extra money to spend.
The TPP: Najib Razak’s Gordian Knot
Barry Wain’s book is critical of Mahathir, but insufficiently so, as I told him myself in 2012, a year before he sadly passed away. There can be no doubt about Ketuanan Melayu and increasing Malay racism, Islamic stridency, UMNO corruption and failed leadership, and seditious statements by Isma and Perkasa. In fact, the IGP and Home Minister made seditious statements and refused to follow federal court orders, a crime in any sane and remotely democratic nation. When Perkasa talks about “Chopping off heads to protect Islam”, it is a little silly to talk about TTP, in a nation, where false converts must remain Muslim, the Home Minister mocks non-Malays, a missing airplane remains missing, and almost all Malaysia Analysts agree that Prime Minister Najib is leading from behind, if leading at all. Many Analysts predict that Najib will step down, or there will be an early election. One does not talk trade or economics with a lame-duck administration. Mahathir continues to bedevil
Malaysia, Najib, and spout bigoted and anti-Semitic drivel as usual. He is widely despised in the US, UK and Australia, even if loved in Zimbabwe, Cuba, Venezuela, Iran, Saudi Arabia and Sudan, all wonderful “democracies”. I repeat, there was never good relations between Mahathir and the United States, the best one can say, is that there
were collaborative arrangements on the economic front. Mahathir restricted military
and some cultural ties. As I know several
Ambassadors from both countries over the course of 35 years, I can confirm this.
Malaysia’s problem is not the TTP, but racism, religious bigotry, and failure to respect the Malaysian Constitution and the Malaysia Agreement of 1963. The Malaysian court system is totally beholden to UMNO. I might add the formal opposition isn’t that much better and is disorganised and has no viable leadership that can counter UMNO. When some Malay NGOs demand that Malaysian-Chinese (“Pendatang”) hand over their businesses and leave the country, as Isma, Perkasa and Abdullah Tee have frequently stated, talking about TTP, when Malaysia is in crisis mode is ridiculous. President Obama’s visit to Malaysia was useless; Susan Rice speaking to Anwar is a joke, as everyone wants to speak with Anwar, when Kassim Ahmad is being held illegally and falsely accused of heresy. Please don’t talk to me about trade relations with Malaysia, when UMNO should be tried internationally for human rights abuses, something President Obama and Prime Minister Cameron do not care about, though Prime Minister Abbott may care a bit more. Thanks for all the references, but I have 40 + years of Malaysia residency behind me.