Ricardo, you can view a summary of my thesis by clicking here.
PaiMei, don’t write off the probability that the military dictatorship will be overthrown by popular resistance. It has only been five weeks since the coup, and the level of resistance so far has been unprecedented. It is still early days. I am confident that my forecasts will be accurate.
It is true that the national monument should be a neutral zone. But this cannot hide the fact that the event (which was not even a formal campaigning event) was overwhelmingly attended by people who voluntarily supported Jokowi. They came without any formal invitation, let alone getting paid to come. This a stark contrast to the formal campaigning event that Prabowo held in the national stadium later in the day where thousands of people came with bus, which are obviously organized by the political parties. There was even a point in the event where Prabowo’s speech was interrupted because the crowd was shouting for water. Yet another stark contrast to the Jokowi crowd who voluntarily attended the morning informal event.
The Indonesian press inform us that now, contrary to former assurances of neutrality, SBY and his Democrats will back Prabowo-Hatta because, SBY tells us, Prabowo’s policies are in line with the Democrats’ policies and that Prabowo will continue to carry on SBY’s ‘reforms’. Is that so! Not according to Prabowo.
A year ago many of us would have laughed – or shuddered – at the prospect of Prabowo getting a look in. Even about six months ago one media report stated that Prabowo’s campaign had run out of steam because he had pitched it for too long. And now this!
It’s surreal. Muslim Indonesia is going to elect a divorced ( to all extents – single) president who has a penchant for bursts of uncontrollable rage in which he reputedly bashes up the pretty young men he surrounds himself with. I wonder whether his single, fashion designer son in Paris will design daddy’s wardrobe for the inauguration? Some tight fitting little number to keep that overweaning hubris in place.
One day when the history of all this can be written without fear, people are going to say, “How on earth did this happen?” It will happen because most people on this planet would rather die than think for themselves. And you know what? Some of them do.
Weren’t the Chinese themselves (I don’t know whether they were Fukian or Hokkien or whatever) migrants in Singapore (whatever it was called then) not that long ago? Since homo sapiens left Africa, there are very few humans who are not migrants at some point in time, somewhere on this planet Well, people tend to forget history very quickly and some of these natural migration patterns often become human trafficking combined with racial/ethnic profiling.
What “a stupid bare life” humans have to go through still in this day and age of the Higgs boson!
I agree and I think Prayuth is going to try to settle in for the long haul. His model is going to be SLORC in Burma. As long as he hands out goodies to the top brass, he can count on the military supporting him indefinitely. Unlike Burma, there’s a huge amount of FDI in Thailand which means there will be no international sanctions/embargo.
So any change will have to come from within Thailand.
Andrew, as I understood your article you predicted a possible coup, which certainly wasn’t uncanny. You also predicted mass violence and resistance if the government was overthrown, and one could say you were uncannily wrong.
That said, I think you wrote an excellent article, best piece I’ve read on contemporary Thai tensions thus far. Just tone down the ego a little bit.
This article is as convincing as Col. Weerachon’s appearance at the FCCT and it will probably have a similar misontrophic undertone to those who actually wanted to vote(!) out Yingluck.
If this is the view from Salaya, maybe a trip into town might be interesting to see if this is convincing to those who actually made to the ballot box. Randomly asking passengers on BTS has a 50% chance to reach out to one of them.
PS: Maybe I am wrong, but according to my reading the THB is “happily” moving sideways vis a vis the dollar and the euro …
Article makes interesting point regarding failure of Jokowi campaign to make election about democracy itself or Prabowo’s anti-democratic statements.
My Question: Is this a failure of campaign messaging, a political calculation that it is not a salient issue, or a reflection of the ideological commitments of the coalition backing Jokowi?
In conclusion: the comments are way more interesting than the article itself. And the authors have made complete fools of themselves. Maybe, this will help them working at Mahidol IC.
Andrew, would be so kind as to give us a brief synopsis of the thesis to your article, as opposed to just giving us a link? It’s rather lengthy and I’m sure us readers (myself included) would like to understand the crux of your argument while this NM post is still fresh, in order to comment.
When you tolerate bad behaviors, they will thrive. The biggest mistake the people of Indonesia have committed is that they failed to punish those who committed certain crimes and corruptions, and therefore establishing a pattern of those crimes and corruptions as part of the accepted norms.
Prabowo’s human rights violation was just one example among many other unpunished crimes in the country. To name a few, the cold blooded murders of some religious followers that were captured in camera and published in various media, the violence against Sampang muslims, and the countless cases of frauds and corruptions; none of the perpetrators were punished. Of course Soeharto himself was never indicted.
The second biggest mistake is that Indonesians have not fully accepted democracy. There are many who blatantly admitted they missed the Soeharto era.
With this in mind, one should not be surprised if democracy in Indonesia will suffer a big blow. It’s not that Prabowo is so powerful, but it’s because the people choose to let it happen.
How, in the world, does an article which has no strong data and facts able to be considered as a good knowledge resource?
This article refers to another article written in Kompas, one of Indonesia’s national media, in which, nowadays stand on Jokowi’s side and writing bad things about Prabowo. Moreover, the speech quoted by Kompas has been fragmented, a method widely known to convey public opinion. Last, the article on Kompas even did not say anything about Prabowo’s intention to return to MPR-election way. The article only quote Prabowo statement, “we need our intellectuals and chief elements to gather, to talk about a new consensus”. This can be interpreted also as if Prabowo wants Indonesian leaders to come up with something better for Indonesia instead just merely adopting what had been Western product of thinking.
This one is a good opinion and journalism practice, but the way the writer delivers the article and conclusion is far from objective.
You forget to mention the yellow unicorns which would descend on Krung Thep, providing happiness, free sandwiches, free movies, and free world cup soccer. In fact, Thailand’s soccer team would win the world cup every year!
for those who understands bahasa indonesia, try to listen to the recording of the session from the soundcloud link.
What Prabowo said is far from being anti Democracy. he is responding to a question and showing concern about how the western culture seems to overpower the original indonesian culture, hence the example of smoking and voting.
This debate will be hijacked by the minority of people who always defend coups and the mention of their arch enemy, THAKSIN, will set their blood boiling and the same old rubbish will come from their fingers pressing keys.
It is impossible to have any sensible debates on Thai politics with any person living in Thailand as the dreaded 112 will stop anything in its tracks.
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Seven questions for Thailand’s military
Just want to know…
Did you just graduated from North Korea?
Thai coup: The debate continues
Ricardo, you can view a summary of my thesis by clicking here.
PaiMei, don’t write off the probability that the military dictatorship will be overthrown by popular resistance. It has only been five weeks since the coup, and the level of resistance so far has been unprecedented. It is still early days. I am confident that my forecasts will be accurate.
One Sunday in Jakarta
It is true that the national monument should be a neutral zone. But this cannot hide the fact that the event (which was not even a formal campaigning event) was overwhelmingly attended by people who voluntarily supported Jokowi. They came without any formal invitation, let alone getting paid to come. This a stark contrast to the formal campaigning event that Prabowo held in the national stadium later in the day where thousands of people came with bus, which are obviously organized by the political parties. There was even a point in the event where Prabowo’s speech was interrupted because the crowd was shouting for water. Yet another stark contrast to the Jokowi crowd who voluntarily attended the morning informal event.
Prabowo Subianto: vote for me, but just the once
The Indonesian press inform us that now, contrary to former assurances of neutrality, SBY and his Democrats will back Prabowo-Hatta because, SBY tells us, Prabowo’s policies are in line with the Democrats’ policies and that Prabowo will continue to carry on SBY’s ‘reforms’. Is that so! Not according to Prabowo.
A year ago many of us would have laughed – or shuddered – at the prospect of Prabowo getting a look in. Even about six months ago one media report stated that Prabowo’s campaign had run out of steam because he had pitched it for too long. And now this!
It’s surreal. Muslim Indonesia is going to elect a divorced ( to all extents – single) president who has a penchant for bursts of uncontrollable rage in which he reputedly bashes up the pretty young men he surrounds himself with. I wonder whether his single, fashion designer son in Paris will design daddy’s wardrobe for the inauguration? Some tight fitting little number to keep that overweaning hubris in place.
One day when the history of all this can be written without fear, people are going to say, “How on earth did this happen?” It will happen because most people on this planet would rather die than think for themselves. And you know what? Some of them do.
Review of The “Bare Life”
Weren’t the Chinese themselves (I don’t know whether they were Fukian or Hokkien or whatever) migrants in Singapore (whatever it was called then) not that long ago? Since homo sapiens left Africa, there are very few humans who are not migrants at some point in time, somewhere on this planet Well, people tend to forget history very quickly and some of these natural migration patterns often become human trafficking combined with racial/ethnic profiling.
What “a stupid bare life” humans have to go through still in this day and age of the Higgs boson!
Thailand’s coup: same same but different?
I agree and I think Prayuth is going to try to settle in for the long haul. His model is going to be SLORC in Burma. As long as he hands out goodies to the top brass, he can count on the military supporting him indefinitely. Unlike Burma, there’s a huge amount of FDI in Thailand which means there will be no international sanctions/embargo.
So any change will have to come from within Thailand.
Thai coup: The debate continues
Andrew, as I understood your article you predicted a possible coup, which certainly wasn’t uncanny. You also predicted mass violence and resistance if the government was overthrown, and one could say you were uncannily wrong.
That said, I think you wrote an excellent article, best piece I’ve read on contemporary Thai tensions thus far. Just tone down the ego a little bit.
Prabowo Subianto: vote for me, but just the once
Readers can hear a recording of the discussion here.
http://electionwatch.edu.au/indonesia-2014/prabowo-continues-his-anti-democratic-rhetoric
Navigate the blue tabs to go directly to Prabowo’s response.
Thailand’s coup: same same but different?
This article is as convincing as Col. Weerachon’s appearance at the FCCT and it will probably have a similar misontrophic undertone to those who actually wanted to vote(!) out Yingluck.
If this is the view from Salaya, maybe a trip into town might be interesting to see if this is convincing to those who actually made to the ballot box. Randomly asking passengers on BTS has a 50% chance to reach out to one of them.
PS: Maybe I am wrong, but according to my reading the THB is “happily” moving sideways vis a vis the dollar and the euro …
http://www.x-rates.com/graph/?from=THB&to=USD
http://www.x-rates.com/graph/?from=THB&to=EUR
Prabowo Subianto: vote for me, but just the once
power hungry level: Soeharto
Prabowo Subianto: vote for me, but just the once
Article makes interesting point regarding failure of Jokowi campaign to make election about democracy itself or Prabowo’s anti-democratic statements.
My Question: Is this a failure of campaign messaging, a political calculation that it is not a salient issue, or a reflection of the ideological commitments of the coalition backing Jokowi?
Thailand’s coup: same same but different?
In conclusion: the comments are way more interesting than the article itself. And the authors have made complete fools of themselves. Maybe, this will help them working at Mahidol IC.
Thai coup: The debate continues
Andrew, would be so kind as to give us a brief synopsis of the thesis to your article, as opposed to just giving us a link? It’s rather lengthy and I’m sure us readers (myself included) would like to understand the crux of your argument while this NM post is still fresh, in order to comment.
Cheers,
Rico
Prabowo Subianto: vote for me, but just the once
When you tolerate bad behaviors, they will thrive. The biggest mistake the people of Indonesia have committed is that they failed to punish those who committed certain crimes and corruptions, and therefore establishing a pattern of those crimes and corruptions as part of the accepted norms.
Prabowo’s human rights violation was just one example among many other unpunished crimes in the country. To name a few, the cold blooded murders of some religious followers that were captured in camera and published in various media, the violence against Sampang muslims, and the countless cases of frauds and corruptions; none of the perpetrators were punished. Of course Soeharto himself was never indicted.
The second biggest mistake is that Indonesians have not fully accepted democracy. There are many who blatantly admitted they missed the Soeharto era.
With this in mind, one should not be surprised if democracy in Indonesia will suffer a big blow. It’s not that Prabowo is so powerful, but it’s because the people choose to let it happen.
Prabowo Subianto: vote for me, but just the once
How, in the world, does an article which has no strong data and facts able to be considered as a good knowledge resource?
This article refers to another article written in Kompas, one of Indonesia’s national media, in which, nowadays stand on Jokowi’s side and writing bad things about Prabowo. Moreover, the speech quoted by Kompas has been fragmented, a method widely known to convey public opinion. Last, the article on Kompas even did not say anything about Prabowo’s intention to return to MPR-election way. The article only quote Prabowo statement, “we need our intellectuals and chief elements to gather, to talk about a new consensus”. This can be interpreted also as if Prabowo wants Indonesian leaders to come up with something better for Indonesia instead just merely adopting what had been Western product of thinking.
This one is a good opinion and journalism practice, but the way the writer delivers the article and conclusion is far from objective.
Thailand’s coup: same same but different?
Hi Marc. I would be interested to know more about your views on how the elites support this coup and the developments you allude to.
Seven questions for Thailand’s military
I forget to add, “the Democrats win elections”.
But I got my money on the yellow unicorns appearing first.
Seven questions for Thailand’s military
You forget to mention the yellow unicorns which would descend on Krung Thep, providing happiness, free sandwiches, free movies, and free world cup soccer. In fact, Thailand’s soccer team would win the world cup every year!
Prabowo Subianto: vote for me, but just the once
for those who want to listen to the original piece of article. check out this link:
http://electionwatch.edu.au/indonesia-2014/prabowo-continues-his-anti-democratic-rhetoric
for those who understands bahasa indonesia, try to listen to the recording of the session from the soundcloud link.
What Prabowo said is far from being anti Democracy. he is responding to a question and showing concern about how the western culture seems to overpower the original indonesian culture, hence the example of smoking and voting.
Thai coup: The debate continues
This debate will be hijacked by the minority of people who always defend coups and the mention of their arch enemy, THAKSIN, will set their blood boiling and the same old rubbish will come from their fingers pressing keys.
It is impossible to have any sensible debates on Thai politics with any person living in Thailand as the dreaded 112 will stop anything in its tracks.