One has to assume I guess that the CIA backing of the KMT in eastern Burma in the early years of independence has faded away in the new generation of generals’ consciousness whereas the Chinese backing of the CPB remains a festering wound. At least Aung Min referred to it publicly and unashamedly in his ministerial excuse for running rough shod at Letpadaung.
ASSK was certainly not known for cosying up to China in contrast to the West, not so dissimilar to the generals’ seemingly recent change of heart, and again like the generals is acutely aware of the merits of being good neighbours. We can expect the generals to continue playing the China card with effect and likewise the US card on the Chinese.
The “useless careless west” has always been effective and careful in pursuing its geopolitical interests and anti-communist crusade which meant keeping its distance from the faux socialism of Ne Win and patiently biding its time. The 8888 Uprising, the rise and persecution of the Lady changed the game to a necessarily more active role culminating in the sanctions, but now all is practically forgiven and the prodigal sons who have always been closet fans of the West can come out into the open “warmly welcome” to the Western fold of the New World Order.
Ironically the roadmap was set by China’s post-1978 example for post-1988 Burma, and the generals would have followed it for ever if they hadn’t hit the buffers and the course had to change ├а la Gorbachev and now steered making use of Suharto’s charts.
True the natives must be pacified one way or another through its own investment strategies in partnership with the Burmese military or by a direct PR approach. Myitsone Dam Project was a temporary glitch for China that turned the frog of a pariah state into a prince, to the mutual benefit of the generals and the West making the most important (to them) reconciliation (détente) happen. Letpadaung carries on with the Lady’s blessing. Shwe Gas pipelines were duly completed behind the smokescreen of riots in Western Burma. Other dams are under way. There’s mutual business interests in Kachin state. They have the UWSA card to play. How can China really complain?
Serious question:
How can any buddhist “tradition” be non-cannon oriented? They all, wherever, recognise the core, even though some are more morphed than others.
You say: “In no other country on earth would you find such patience and respect for human life from all sides.”
We all heard these examples of Thai exeptionalism over and over again (…and how about the democratic transformation of most of the former Warsaw Pact countries or maybe Post-apartheid South Africa?)
Fact is that a large part of the Thai population is discriminated against (р╕Др╕зр╕▓р╕в and n-word seem only gradually different in their discriminating power) and they struggle to get their fair share of the government spendings and of the economy, while the other side follows relentless their path without compromise.
Populist policies are not per se bad, because they wouldn’t be popular if they wouldn’t bring advantages to a majority of the population.
I would think a few things could be tried to close the current divide in the Thai society:
a) decentralisation (but the units will have to be big enough to prevent local godfathers)
b) balance the budget, so the rural parts get their fair share regarding infrastructure and educational investments
c) affirmative action regarding the state-employment of people of the rural areas (and here the North-East in particular)
RNE–The “ugliness” of Indon nationalism does not hold a candle to what one encounters in Singapore, Thailand, China . . . What one currently finds in Djakarta is in many ways a corrective to the weakening of national sovereignty in the post-Asian Financial Crisis period. It is long overdue. NEKOLIM must be turned back!
I have to admit that the PAP’s reactions are not, to me, the puzzling part of this whole imbroglio. The puzzling part to me is why Indonesia would have taken such a silly step in the first place. I will bet that 99.9% of Indonesians had never even heard of Osman Hj Mohd Ali and Harun Said before this. Most other Indonesian navy ships are named after, well, people you’ve heard of http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Current_Indonesian_Navy_ships.
To be frank, it seems like schoolyard politics, a thumb in the eye from a big kid trying to show everyone that he can get away with it. I’d like to hear an affirmative defense of why this is a good idea on TNI-AL’s part.
This is fascinating matter. To be sure, the PAP government’s insistence on reminding Singaporeans of their country’s vulnerability reflects the insecurity inherent in all Bonapartism.
But there is another level to all of this.
Singapore was a Malaysian state at the time of the MacDonald house bombing. That bombing was an act of war, not an act of “terrorism” or a crime. It grew out of President Sukarno’s principled and justified opposition to the formation of Malaysia.
That having been said, there are many Singaporeans of a certain generation for whom the bombing represents a genuine tragedy. (Messrs Chan Chun Sing and Tan Chuan Jin, whose portfolios have nothing to do with foreign relations or defence, are not members of that generation. They are far, far too young. Their interventions in the matter ought to be regarded as nothing but posturing.) This tragedy has nothing to do with PAP rhetoric about the country’s vulnerability and much to do with the loss of innocent lives and the injury to innocent people. In this regard, feelings about the MacDonald house bombing represent organic sentiments in Singapore society, not “public opinion” manufactured by the PAP state.
And, of course, the Indons would not be naming a vessel for their fallen marines if Lee Kuan Yew had sought a pardon for these men, rather than execute them in the service of his own shabby Bonapartism.
Agree with the: 1. Unfortunate legacies by one side (to be fair, some was due to bad execution of good ideas) and 2. Insulation of a section of the supporters on the other side (they are only one group, and yes, they could get out more)
But the ‘Thai solution’ will eventually have all sides working together to bring the country into the future. I kid you not, and there is nowhere else on earth where this could happen. Time will tell. But first they must struggle and play out their hands. And then the silent majority will speak up and say: stop fighting, and get on with it.
The bigger question is, when will civic education begin as a rule and not as a bandaide, and how long will it take for the populace to recover from the populist policies by all sides, and finally reach the egalitarian civil society that is promised by ‘democracy’?
I’m with Richard (#2) here. Indonesia seems to be headed in an ugly, nationalist direction. One would have to put most of the blame for this on Australia, the region’s deputy bully-boy. (Wiranto for President, anybody?)
Article and all comments are interesting, and together paint a comprehensive picture of a complex situation. The only thing I would suggest is, for those people who still simplistically think of this as a class war, that you go out and see with your own eyes the full range of society that is out there. Once you wipe this lazy thinking and superiority complex off the map, you can appreciate the depth of information and analyses on this page.
Thailand is going through a democratic transition that is incredibly civil and peaceful compared to the rest of the world, were other countries to wrestle with the same issues and power plays. In no other country on earth would you find such patience and respect for human life from all sides. They are to be commended. The process is not perfect, the people all up and down the spectrum, and to the left and right of centre, have limits to their patience, and they can all make mistakes. But the core Thai culture always reaches for a solution that satisfies all.
For those who would make it their self-glorifying entertainment to trump up a non-existant class war just because of their own hidden inferiority issues from back home in other countries…you might instead read the other comments here on this page and see the bigger picture. It is almost all here. But you would have to read up and understand all sides. Without all the pieces of the jigsaw puzzle, how do you hope to see the whole picture?
This Thai political situation will be analysed well into the future – we are all privileged to be in the country at this historic time. Hopefully, we will go out and see with our own eyes what is happening and by whom, and see the present and future with an open and respectful heart.
[…] China has long been concerned about ineffective Myanmar political, social and economic policies, many of which had direct impacts on Chinese interests, although as is customary for China, it tended to blur its public criticisms of Myanmar policies.[1] […]
A ridiculous position for a political scientist to take. If Canada named a ship The Lee Harvey Oswald’ do you really imagine that US-Canadian relations would not be stressed. He might have been insignificant but his actions were not. The provocation from Indinesia is clearly calculated.
I’m not sure all media you lump in behind Thaksin is quite right. I’d be inclined to put more in the middle. Some of the recent editorials from Thai Rath (past few months) would have been highly critical of the rice scheme and they have clearly dropped their former strong support for Thaksin regimes, and this government led by Yingluck. I say that based on editorials, not just opinion pieces. Matichon, on the other hand, has been accused of being bought out (Sathit Wongnongtaey commented about 100m baht deal made on PDRC stage late last year), so they do belong there. And while the SMH (Lindsay) wrote up the Chiang Mai reds’ warning of dire trouble if the YL govt is brought down I wouldn’t put them (him) in the red corner. If you want to analyse where correspondents ‘sit’ in regard to the latest political crisis, I think you first need to note that there are far fewer than in the past, when perhaps you covered this part of the world (and did a fair job from what I can recall). My gut feeling is that foreign journalists who have been in this part of the world for more than a decade are less sympathetic to Yingluck because they saw what Thaksin was like from 2001 to Sept 2006 and know he was not well suited to running a country, and that his claim of being a ‘democratic’ victor in many elections is hollow. This is a man with a record of buying minor parties (such as Chavalit’s NAP) and accused of buying umpteen MPs, with an interest purely in retaining power. A very clever, but deeply flawed individual.
I don’t have problems with the general thrust of your remarks, noting flaws on the ‘other side’, but I think you could also say that Thaksin is a superb exponent of exaggerating support that his side has. I think the latest poll results show the public support for Thaksin and this govt has been hit hard, mainly by the amnesty push and rice scheme fiasco. There is also no question that Abhisit has been a massive disappointment, and the Dems would be wise to dump him ASAP (Chuan is his strong supporter and has backed him, which is why that hasn’t already happened). Abhisit has been strongly criticised for failing to reach out to the rural masses, but I also think you need to remember that Thaksin probably realised ‘Mark’ was potentially a threat when he was made leader (young, handsome, well-educated and popular appeal among women voters) so he played hard ball. The reds harassed him very aggressively.. threw bags of shit (faeces) at him and his entourage when he went to rural areas, and he hasn’t had the stomach or strategy to defeat that (although that probably stepped up after the coup and when he became PM). Abhisit had minimal experience of the real world (other work) before entering politics, sadly. Korn would be way better, as many are saying privately, but someone with darker skin from Isaan would be about the only hope that party has of winning a poll outright.. but there does not appear to be anyone from Ubon, say, who is senior enough to be a chance for that and all the signs are, they’re still focused mainly on Bangkok, the South and central region. The problem is the rice scheme is so riddled with graft it raises the question of whether it was designed to “leak” .. and Yingluck must be at grave risk of being held responsible, as she was head of the national rice management committee. I find it hard to believe she is not culpable in simply overseeing that shambles (for being the nominal person in charge; not necessarily any criminal action on her part). But if the anti-graft agency indicts her, as there must be a chance of happening, it could spur a backlash, which could range from civil disobedience (such as occupying Chiang Mai airport, to rallies in Bkk), to worse. The timing and nature of the judicial moves in coming weeks will be delicate, to say the least.
Actually, the Democrats are also vulnerable to dissolution – there is allegedly a clause in the 2007 charter that says parties that boycott two elections within eight years can be struck off. The April 2006 poll was ruled deficient by the courts shortly after the King said it was undemocratic in May that year, so whether that ‘saves’ them, I don’t know. But stepping back, it might actually be a blessing if the courts also ruled out the Democrats – and force them to rebuild. However the chances of this occurring are probably minute.
Thai voters desperately need alternative parties in the north and northeast. Because my inkling is many rural people have learnt that voting for Thaksin is like backing a racing car driver who has no brakes or capacity to go slow or take a pit stop when conditions change or hazards arise. A new era is dawning, we just have to pray it won’t be bloody, although there are plenty of signs that it could be. The conservative old guard desperately need to make some adjustments to help the poor – things such as a land tax, with a registry of landowners and a capacity to allocate land to poor communities, a much gentler way to manage LM complaints, a better resourced anti-graft body, a restructure of the police that includes superannuation and better pay (and an inhouse watchdog to stamp out the current practice of bidding for the top or most lucrative positions), and an overhaul of the education system so that they teach people to think, and eliminate the learning by rote system which still lingers; civics courses are also needed in the curriculum. Thing is, there are a lot of educated Thais who know what needs to be done. I’m not convinced that Suthep which play a huge role in the reforms about this crisis ends. He’s most interested in getting Thaksin out of the system. I’m not sure he will do that either, but I have utterly no doubt they need further reform. If they end up with a national unity government, we have to hope they will get a leader who can steady the ship.. and that Yingluck, if she gets the chop, will go gracefully, and that she will urge her hot-tempered brother to not let loose the ‘dogs of war’.
Battles are not won or lost by numbers only; strategic position and movement is equally important.
So in the long run, power is shifting away from the feudalist elites, but in the short run, they may just win one last time. The power sources of the red camp sre peripheral (voters and intl community), and slow. Elite troops (judiciary and military) still hold the enter and can strike fast. This is why in the short run, there is an impasse as Aj Somsak said.
On the other hand, the structural and discursive shift in the balance of power is more dramatic as it seems. In fact, the feudalist have lost ideological hegemony, as witnessed by their ridicule in foreign media. In the long run, this will be decisive.
In the short run, conservative elites hedging their chances may jump ship, which would tilt the balance for good.
More ‘tidak apa-apa’ from Indonesia. Why don’t they worry about the money they need to cough up to buy the 250 planes for Garuda. Indonesia, the land of grand schemes and silly ideas.
Singapore politicians “grow up” ? Oh please, and the maturity level in Jakarta is light years beyond Singapore, right ? Any more myths ?
Presently this iniquitous move to unseat a democratically elected government has entered a new vicious phase: that of a judicial coup. Those responsible for undermining the Rule of Law, exciting violence with hate-speech,and destroying government property, will not be persecuted by the “yellow-shirt” courts, and warrants of arrest will go ignored. Criminal acts performed by protest leaders and their thuggish guards will go unpunished. An apt term for this has aptly been coined by Chris Beal, namely a “constitutional war of attrition”.Symbolic of the government┬┤s present weakness is the fact that Mr. Suthep is not already behind bars, and has not yet bothered to appear in court to face charges against him for his role in giving the order to gundown “red-shirt” protestors in 2010. It is quite obvious that he does not care two hoots for the Rule of Law because he knows full-well that he has the approval of individuals at the very pinnacle of the old ruling establishment, and friends in the army. The aim of Mr. Suthep, according to his own words, is to make the country ungovernable. Undermining the Rule of Law is a very dangerous game in the long run that will have dire consequences for the country in the future.
Most of the protestors are united more by a common hatred of Thaksinism than by the “ultraroyalist” sentiments attributed to them by their critics and it is the red shirt followers that are more likely to have portraits of the royal family in their homes.
Which camp do the rice farmers, who are protesting that they have been cheated by the Thaksinite government fit into – red or blue? The score of reported suicides as a result of the government’s default now stands at 7.
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China and Myanmar’s reforms
One has to assume I guess that the CIA backing of the KMT in eastern Burma in the early years of independence has faded away in the new generation of generals’ consciousness whereas the Chinese backing of the CPB remains a festering wound. At least Aung Min referred to it publicly and unashamedly in his ministerial excuse for running rough shod at Letpadaung.
ASSK was certainly not known for cosying up to China in contrast to the West, not so dissimilar to the generals’ seemingly recent change of heart, and again like the generals is acutely aware of the merits of being good neighbours. We can expect the generals to continue playing the China card with effect and likewise the US card on the Chinese.
The “useless careless west” has always been effective and careful in pursuing its geopolitical interests and anti-communist crusade which meant keeping its distance from the faux socialism of Ne Win and patiently biding its time. The 8888 Uprising, the rise and persecution of the Lady changed the game to a necessarily more active role culminating in the sanctions, but now all is practically forgiven and the prodigal sons who have always been closet fans of the West can come out into the open “warmly welcome” to the Western fold of the New World Order.
Ironically the roadmap was set by China’s post-1978 example for post-1988 Burma, and the generals would have followed it for ever if they hadn’t hit the buffers and the course had to change ├а la Gorbachev and now steered making use of Suharto’s charts.
True the natives must be pacified one way or another through its own investment strategies in partnership with the Burmese military or by a direct PR approach. Myitsone Dam Project was a temporary glitch for China that turned the frog of a pariah state into a prince, to the mutual benefit of the generals and the West making the most important (to them) reconciliation (détente) happen. Letpadaung carries on with the Lady’s blessing. Shwe Gas pipelines were duly completed behind the smokescreen of riots in Western Burma. Other dams are under way. There’s mutual business interests in Kachin state. They have the UWSA card to play. How can China really complain?
Indonesia: Why you so like that wan?
Disrespect, is a well known intolerable characteristic, unless one do not understand an Asian sentiment.
An obvious “Disrespect” in this case, the author trivialized as a ‘ruckus’ speak for itself.
The response appropriately remind everyone in the realm Singapore is the Rome of Asia in commerce.
The Buddha was bald
Serious question:
How can any buddhist “tradition” be non-cannon oriented? They all, wherever, recognise the core, even though some are more morphed than others.
The weakness of the Thai royalists
You say: “In no other country on earth would you find such patience and respect for human life from all sides.”
We all heard these examples of Thai exeptionalism over and over again (…and how about the democratic transformation of most of the former Warsaw Pact countries or maybe Post-apartheid South Africa?)
Fact is that a large part of the Thai population is discriminated against (р╕Др╕зр╕▓р╕в and n-word seem only gradually different in their discriminating power) and they struggle to get their fair share of the government spendings and of the economy, while the other side follows relentless their path without compromise.
Populist policies are not per se bad, because they wouldn’t be popular if they wouldn’t bring advantages to a majority of the population.
I would think a few things could be tried to close the current divide in the Thai society:
a) decentralisation (but the units will have to be big enough to prevent local godfathers)
b) balance the budget, so the rural parts get their fair share regarding infrastructure and educational investments
c) affirmative action regarding the state-employment of people of the rural areas (and here the North-East in particular)
Indonesia: Why you so like that wan?
RNE–The “ugliness” of Indon nationalism does not hold a candle to what one encounters in Singapore, Thailand, China . . . What one currently finds in Djakarta is in many ways a corrective to the weakening of national sovereignty in the post-Asian Financial Crisis period. It is long overdue. NEKOLIM must be turned back!
Indonesia: Why you so like that wan?
I have to admit that the PAP’s reactions are not, to me, the puzzling part of this whole imbroglio. The puzzling part to me is why Indonesia would have taken such a silly step in the first place. I will bet that 99.9% of Indonesians had never even heard of Osman Hj Mohd Ali and Harun Said before this. Most other Indonesian navy ships are named after, well, people you’ve heard of http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Current_Indonesian_Navy_ships.
To be frank, it seems like schoolyard politics, a thumb in the eye from a big kid trying to show everyone that he can get away with it. I’d like to hear an affirmative defense of why this is a good idea on TNI-AL’s part.
Indonesia: Why you so like that wan?
Can Singapore afford the cold shoulder of Indonesia or vice-versa?
http://thediplomat.com/2014/02/indonesia-boycotts-singapore-airshow/
Indonesia: Why you so like that wan?
This is fascinating matter. To be sure, the PAP government’s insistence on reminding Singaporeans of their country’s vulnerability reflects the insecurity inherent in all Bonapartism.
But there is another level to all of this.
Singapore was a Malaysian state at the time of the MacDonald house bombing. That bombing was an act of war, not an act of “terrorism” or a crime. It grew out of President Sukarno’s principled and justified opposition to the formation of Malaysia.
That having been said, there are many Singaporeans of a certain generation for whom the bombing represents a genuine tragedy. (Messrs Chan Chun Sing and Tan Chuan Jin, whose portfolios have nothing to do with foreign relations or defence, are not members of that generation. They are far, far too young. Their interventions in the matter ought to be regarded as nothing but posturing.) This tragedy has nothing to do with PAP rhetoric about the country’s vulnerability and much to do with the loss of innocent lives and the injury to innocent people. In this regard, feelings about the MacDonald house bombing represent organic sentiments in Singapore society, not “public opinion” manufactured by the PAP state.
And, of course, the Indons would not be naming a vessel for their fallen marines if Lee Kuan Yew had sought a pardon for these men, rather than execute them in the service of his own shabby Bonapartism.
The weakness of the Thai royalists
Agree with the: 1. Unfortunate legacies by one side (to be fair, some was due to bad execution of good ideas) and 2. Insulation of a section of the supporters on the other side (they are only one group, and yes, they could get out more)
But the ‘Thai solution’ will eventually have all sides working together to bring the country into the future. I kid you not, and there is nowhere else on earth where this could happen. Time will tell. But first they must struggle and play out their hands. And then the silent majority will speak up and say: stop fighting, and get on with it.
The bigger question is, when will civic education begin as a rule and not as a bandaide, and how long will it take for the populace to recover from the populist policies by all sides, and finally reach the egalitarian civil society that is promised by ‘democracy’?
Indonesia: Why you so like that wan?
I’m with Richard (#2) here. Indonesia seems to be headed in an ugly, nationalist direction. One would have to put most of the blame for this on Australia, the region’s deputy bully-boy. (Wiranto for President, anybody?)
The weakness of the Thai royalists
Article and all comments are interesting, and together paint a comprehensive picture of a complex situation. The only thing I would suggest is, for those people who still simplistically think of this as a class war, that you go out and see with your own eyes the full range of society that is out there. Once you wipe this lazy thinking and superiority complex off the map, you can appreciate the depth of information and analyses on this page.
Thailand is going through a democratic transition that is incredibly civil and peaceful compared to the rest of the world, were other countries to wrestle with the same issues and power plays. In no other country on earth would you find such patience and respect for human life from all sides. They are to be commended. The process is not perfect, the people all up and down the spectrum, and to the left and right of centre, have limits to their patience, and they can all make mistakes. But the core Thai culture always reaches for a solution that satisfies all.
For those who would make it their self-glorifying entertainment to trump up a non-existant class war just because of their own hidden inferiority issues from back home in other countries…you might instead read the other comments here on this page and see the bigger picture. It is almost all here. But you would have to read up and understand all sides. Without all the pieces of the jigsaw puzzle, how do you hope to see the whole picture?
This Thai political situation will be analysed well into the future – we are all privileged to be in the country at this historic time. Hopefully, we will go out and see with our own eyes what is happening and by whom, and see the present and future with an open and respectful heart.
China and Myanmar’s reforms
[…] China has long been concerned about ineffective Myanmar political, social and economic policies, many of which had direct impacts on Chinese interests, although as is customary for China, it tended to blur its public criticisms of Myanmar policies.[1] […]
Indonesia: Why you so like that wan?
Nice analysis. Singapore leaders should get matured at the age of 50, the old days fear of vulnerability should be overcome.
All ASEAN countries are in turmoil and no one has time to attack another one?
If this issue was not unfurled no one would even know who is/are Harun Usman or Usman Harun !!
Indonesia: Why you so like that wan?
A ridiculous position for a political scientist to take. If Canada named a ship The Lee Harvey Oswald’ do you really imagine that US-Canadian relations would not be stressed. He might have been insignificant but his actions were not. The provocation from Indinesia is clearly calculated.
The weakness of the Thai royalists
Hi,
the sentence near the end had a couple of errors. It should have said..
I’m not convinced that Suthep WILL play a huge role in the reforms AFTER this crisis ends.
The weakness of the Thai royalists
I’m not sure all media you lump in behind Thaksin is quite right. I’d be inclined to put more in the middle. Some of the recent editorials from Thai Rath (past few months) would have been highly critical of the rice scheme and they have clearly dropped their former strong support for Thaksin regimes, and this government led by Yingluck. I say that based on editorials, not just opinion pieces. Matichon, on the other hand, has been accused of being bought out (Sathit Wongnongtaey commented about 100m baht deal made on PDRC stage late last year), so they do belong there. And while the SMH (Lindsay) wrote up the Chiang Mai reds’ warning of dire trouble if the YL govt is brought down I wouldn’t put them (him) in the red corner. If you want to analyse where correspondents ‘sit’ in regard to the latest political crisis, I think you first need to note that there are far fewer than in the past, when perhaps you covered this part of the world (and did a fair job from what I can recall). My gut feeling is that foreign journalists who have been in this part of the world for more than a decade are less sympathetic to Yingluck because they saw what Thaksin was like from 2001 to Sept 2006 and know he was not well suited to running a country, and that his claim of being a ‘democratic’ victor in many elections is hollow. This is a man with a record of buying minor parties (such as Chavalit’s NAP) and accused of buying umpteen MPs, with an interest purely in retaining power. A very clever, but deeply flawed individual.
I don’t have problems with the general thrust of your remarks, noting flaws on the ‘other side’, but I think you could also say that Thaksin is a superb exponent of exaggerating support that his side has. I think the latest poll results show the public support for Thaksin and this govt has been hit hard, mainly by the amnesty push and rice scheme fiasco. There is also no question that Abhisit has been a massive disappointment, and the Dems would be wise to dump him ASAP (Chuan is his strong supporter and has backed him, which is why that hasn’t already happened). Abhisit has been strongly criticised for failing to reach out to the rural masses, but I also think you need to remember that Thaksin probably realised ‘Mark’ was potentially a threat when he was made leader (young, handsome, well-educated and popular appeal among women voters) so he played hard ball. The reds harassed him very aggressively.. threw bags of shit (faeces) at him and his entourage when he went to rural areas, and he hasn’t had the stomach or strategy to defeat that (although that probably stepped up after the coup and when he became PM). Abhisit had minimal experience of the real world (other work) before entering politics, sadly. Korn would be way better, as many are saying privately, but someone with darker skin from Isaan would be about the only hope that party has of winning a poll outright.. but there does not appear to be anyone from Ubon, say, who is senior enough to be a chance for that and all the signs are, they’re still focused mainly on Bangkok, the South and central region. The problem is the rice scheme is so riddled with graft it raises the question of whether it was designed to “leak” .. and Yingluck must be at grave risk of being held responsible, as she was head of the national rice management committee. I find it hard to believe she is not culpable in simply overseeing that shambles (for being the nominal person in charge; not necessarily any criminal action on her part). But if the anti-graft agency indicts her, as there must be a chance of happening, it could spur a backlash, which could range from civil disobedience (such as occupying Chiang Mai airport, to rallies in Bkk), to worse. The timing and nature of the judicial moves in coming weeks will be delicate, to say the least.
Actually, the Democrats are also vulnerable to dissolution – there is allegedly a clause in the 2007 charter that says parties that boycott two elections within eight years can be struck off. The April 2006 poll was ruled deficient by the courts shortly after the King said it was undemocratic in May that year, so whether that ‘saves’ them, I don’t know. But stepping back, it might actually be a blessing if the courts also ruled out the Democrats – and force them to rebuild. However the chances of this occurring are probably minute.
Thai voters desperately need alternative parties in the north and northeast. Because my inkling is many rural people have learnt that voting for Thaksin is like backing a racing car driver who has no brakes or capacity to go slow or take a pit stop when conditions change or hazards arise. A new era is dawning, we just have to pray it won’t be bloody, although there are plenty of signs that it could be. The conservative old guard desperately need to make some adjustments to help the poor – things such as a land tax, with a registry of landowners and a capacity to allocate land to poor communities, a much gentler way to manage LM complaints, a better resourced anti-graft body, a restructure of the police that includes superannuation and better pay (and an inhouse watchdog to stamp out the current practice of bidding for the top or most lucrative positions), and an overhaul of the education system so that they teach people to think, and eliminate the learning by rote system which still lingers; civics courses are also needed in the curriculum. Thing is, there are a lot of educated Thais who know what needs to be done. I’m not convinced that Suthep which play a huge role in the reforms about this crisis ends. He’s most interested in getting Thaksin out of the system. I’m not sure he will do that either, but I have utterly no doubt they need further reform. If they end up with a national unity government, we have to hope they will get a leader who can steady the ship.. and that Yingluck, if she gets the chop, will go gracefully, and that she will urge her hot-tempered brother to not let loose the ‘dogs of war’.
The weakness of the Thai royalists
Battles are not won or lost by numbers only; strategic position and movement is equally important.
So in the long run, power is shifting away from the feudalist elites, but in the short run, they may just win one last time. The power sources of the red camp sre peripheral (voters and intl community), and slow. Elite troops (judiciary and military) still hold the enter and can strike fast. This is why in the short run, there is an impasse as Aj Somsak said.
On the other hand, the structural and discursive shift in the balance of power is more dramatic as it seems. In fact, the feudalist have lost ideological hegemony, as witnessed by their ridicule in foreign media. In the long run, this will be decisive.
In the short run, conservative elites hedging their chances may jump ship, which would tilt the balance for good.
Indonesia: Why you so like that wan?
More ‘tidak apa-apa’ from Indonesia. Why don’t they worry about the money they need to cough up to buy the 250 planes for Garuda. Indonesia, the land of grand schemes and silly ideas.
Singapore politicians “grow up” ? Oh please, and the maturity level in Jakarta is light years beyond Singapore, right ? Any more myths ?
Thailand’s election: 2 February 2014
Presently this iniquitous move to unseat a democratically elected government has entered a new vicious phase: that of a judicial coup. Those responsible for undermining the Rule of Law, exciting violence with hate-speech,and destroying government property, will not be persecuted by the “yellow-shirt” courts, and warrants of arrest will go ignored. Criminal acts performed by protest leaders and their thuggish guards will go unpunished. An apt term for this has aptly been coined by Chris Beal, namely a “constitutional war of attrition”.Symbolic of the government┬┤s present weakness is the fact that Mr. Suthep is not already behind bars, and has not yet bothered to appear in court to face charges against him for his role in giving the order to gundown “red-shirt” protestors in 2010. It is quite obvious that he does not care two hoots for the Rule of Law because he knows full-well that he has the approval of individuals at the very pinnacle of the old ruling establishment, and friends in the army. The aim of Mr. Suthep, according to his own words, is to make the country ungovernable. Undermining the Rule of Law is a very dangerous game in the long run that will have dire consequences for the country in the future.
The weakness of the Thai royalists
Most of the protestors are united more by a common hatred of Thaksinism than by the “ultraroyalist” sentiments attributed to them by their critics and it is the red shirt followers that are more likely to have portraits of the royal family in their homes.
Which camp do the rice farmers, who are protesting that they have been cheated by the Thaksinite government fit into – red or blue? The score of reported suicides as a result of the government’s default now stands at 7.