I would say most of the whistle mob know it’s a power grab but they would say it’s a power grab by good people for good people, and anyone who disagrees with them must be by definition bad people.
There is no middle ground.
Are the comparisons to Egypt, Ukraine, Turkey and Venezuela really so far off? Let’s revisit:
– In Egypt, the middle class in the capital sided with the military deep state to overthrown an elected government villified as “auhoritarian”. The result of a military coup is 15.000 dead Muslim Bothers, and a constitution which was approved by a referednum boycotted by the MB – and voted yes by the secular middle classes.
– In Venezuela, Turkey and Ukraine, an elected government is villified as authoritarian by the middle classes of the capitals. In both cases, the “uncilisied masses” have been mobilised by political entrepreneurs, who threaten the interests and values of traditional establishments.
– If the history is any guide, old elites and middle classes will attempt to roll back the emergence of the majority population by relying on their considerable economic, coercive and ideological power. Military and juducial coups, election bozcots, crackdowns and media propaganda are the instruments of choice. Only after the balance of power has shifted irreversibly, the elites and middle classes come to terms with the new political field and settle for a social compromise which includes everyone in political, economic, social and cultural life, but guarantees safeguards for their own interests in a democratic system.
In Thailand, both sides wrongly believe they can win this conflict. Only if the realization sinks in that the “other side” will not disappear, or some auspicious event (…) will change the equation, only then the renegotiation of the social contract can start.
Hi plan B, I think you make a good point about being careful not to blame the majority.
But I also think it is important for everyone to reflect carefully upon whether or not there are common biases and misperceptions that make it easier for extreme nationalism (even a call to violence) to grab hold. Can we say the majority of folks in Myanmar are generally tolerant – and yet also say that biases, misperceptions, and fears of the ‘other’ are common? I think so. That’s ultimately what has to be addressed – and that’ll take more than a few inter-faith conferences!
Hi Jon, at the opening of the event there was a request for Chatham House rules, so I tried to give us much information while still complying with that.
Thanks for all these useful comments. Maybe I need to clarify a bit.
Actually I am talking about middle classES (plural) in the political economy analysis, which includes the BKK middle class, emerging peripheral middle classes in the North and Northeast (as described by Andrew Walker and others), and “urban villagers” (as describes by Pankaj Mishra).
An additional ethno-geographic dimension would surely be useful to describe the overall conflict dynamic, and of course as noted by others, the elite struggle behind the scenes (I will write on that separately).
The gist of this piece, however, focuses on the Bangkok middle class (singular) and its myths, discourses, fears and anger. Not because this class decides or explains everything, but because in the long run, you cannot democratize society without it.
So this article should be understood as a piece of a bigger puzzle, and many other pieces need to be added to it.
“. . . this country will never change without a dictator of some probity who has the resolve to take off a few heads . . .”
Sorry, but I doubt if Lee Kuan Yew can be inveigled to come out of retirement now.
The moment anyone quotes “The Nation” he / she loses all credibility.
BTW, people who want to grab power against the wishes or welfare of the majority will use anything or anyone for their own benefit. Love and loyalty has nothing to do with it.
Declaring to speak for the majority and yet not wanting to give a say to anyone but themselves is pure bunk.
“Drunk with the power of the electoral mandate, governments tend to display arrogance of power, and blatantly disregard constitutional checks and balances. Endemic corruption, nepotism and cronyism act as the lightning rod for middle class outrage.”
Right in the money! Thai middle class rage against the Thaksin arrogant kleptocracy and disregard for constitutional checks and balances.
Pravit of The Nation (22 Jan.) makes the observation that corruption is often seen as a motivating force, while another element obvious to all observers is ignored:
“To make matters worse, many are not openly talking about the other “big issue”, which has attracted so much hatred against Yingluck and her older brother, ousted and fugitive former premier Thaksin Shinawatra. We have all heard about corruption at rally sites, and the Thai media widely reported it, but what about the sense of insecurity over the future of the monarchy among protesters, with His Majesty at 86 and frail?
Those visiting the protest sites cannot fail to notice a good number of protesters wearing T-shirts with royalist slogans like: “People of HM the King” or “[The person] whom I love the most is the King” and that many such T-shirts are widely available on sale at protest sites. On January 13, the first day of the “shutdown”, I heard a protest leader on stage at Victory Monument declaring out of the blue that they would ensure the King would remain the head of state. Why such insecurity and why so little public discussion about it?”
Do the Chinese somehow enter into analyses of the current events? Or are “middle-class Bangkokians” and “Thai-Chinese Bangkokians” interchangeable? What about these distinctions in the cities mentioned by Bernard SG?
At first I thought perhaps the interfaith dialogue was closed-door so you could not reveal the names of the speakers. Then pics started coming across my Facebook newsfeed and some more open discussion as well.
Is there a particular reason you did not quote the Sayadaws’ names with their quotations? It would be helpful to know who said what.
I find it very hard to take seriously anyone who gets their dander up about a post-coup criminal conviction that almost any Thai politician could be found guilty of if they were investigated and so charged, but have absolutely no qualms about the illegal military coup that tore up a constitution and sponsored the writing of a new one that set everything in motion for the anti-democratic forces at work in Thailand today.
Reply to Marc Saxer:
“ When the middle class realizes that their interests are best guarded by social justice, the doors to new social development will open.”
Unfortunately, Thaksin Shinawatra’s latest proxy government has proven to be grossly inept in this task – to the point of being counterproductive. Moreover, Red Shirt propaganda that PM Abhisit would undo popular policies such as universal health care have been proven wrong. Not that Mr Abhisit, as leader of the Democrat Party, hasn’t had to contend with the considerable influence of reactionary conservatives in his party, but even as leader of a weak coalition government, he was able to implement real and substantial reforms to education and rice purchases from which both the poor and middle classes had most to gain – and which were promptly reversed by Thaksin’s proxys as part of the ongoing effort to demonize any and all the political opponents he was unable to co-opt into his parliamentary dictatorship. Let’s not forget that it was an open secret not long ago that Thaksin was paying a large block of Senators a retainer of 50,000 baht per month in order to control the Upper House.
I believe that the above factors are playing a large part the middle-class revolt against Thaksin’s proven autocracy for Suthep’s potential one. However,it would take a lot to convince me that a politician as wily as Kamnan Suthep isn’t well aware that the make-up of his reform council must be broadly acceptable to the Thai people. Right now though, we are seeing ambit claims by Suthep matched by Yinluck’s ‘say anything to hang on to power’ hollow rhetoric, no more laid bare than her rejection of the recommendation from the head of her own reform committee just last week that, in the best interest of reform, she should resign immediately.
“ In the bigger picture, however, the role of the protests is to lend legitimacy to an illegitimate power grab.”
In my opinion, this conclusion is unjustified: Such fears have been greatly overblown and form part of a deliberately distorted succession narrative, intended to benefit certain opportunistic writers and politicians, which is not supported by strong evidence of the natural, gradual erosion of monarchical influence during recent decades which, I strongly suspect, will quicken with the inevitable passing of King Bhumibol.
It is strictly political and control – Morals has nothing to do with it. Unless you consider the owners of the biggest chain o whorehouse in Thailand as morally upright individuals?! Noting that they are part of the “demonstrators” leadership.
Yes there’s distinction to the middle class in Bangkok and in the provinces. From my observation, I think the middle class in Bangkok considered themselves as part of the traditional elite. Although some just moved to Bangkok recently, they want to be a part of the hi-so circuit and willing to do anything to be seen as one so they join in the gang, knowingly they are not supporting the democratic cause.
While the middle class in the provinces are more about opportunity and equality. Social classes is a thing of the past generation and should be irrelevant in the democratic society. But of cause, we cant throw away the succession matter that’s going on behind the scene as well.
The first thing one must avoid is blame the majority here. Even ordinary Buddhist do not like to be maligned through their tradition.
The Sayadaw wise side stepping, presented as political is another kind of accusation that will further drain the sympathy.
Myanmar is a Buddhist country. Promote the multitude of Buddhist tolerance to promote the minority rights, that incidentally Islam do not seem to understand or practice when are majority.
ALL that interfaith conferences will ever accomplish is a kum ba yah moment that hopefully allow ROL to catch up.
Expecting these encounters to solve any part of a quagmire of west useless careless legacy?
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Middle class rage threatens democracy
I would say most of the whistle mob know it’s a power grab but they would say it’s a power grab by good people for good people, and anyone who disagrees with them must be by definition bad people.
There is no middle ground.
Middle class rage threatens democracy
Are the comparisons to Egypt, Ukraine, Turkey and Venezuela really so far off? Let’s revisit:
– In Egypt, the middle class in the capital sided with the military deep state to overthrown an elected government villified as “auhoritarian”. The result of a military coup is 15.000 dead Muslim Bothers, and a constitution which was approved by a referednum boycotted by the MB – and voted yes by the secular middle classes.
– In Venezuela, Turkey and Ukraine, an elected government is villified as authoritarian by the middle classes of the capitals. In both cases, the “uncilisied masses” have been mobilised by political entrepreneurs, who threaten the interests and values of traditional establishments.
– If the history is any guide, old elites and middle classes will attempt to roll back the emergence of the majority population by relying on their considerable economic, coercive and ideological power. Military and juducial coups, election bozcots, crackdowns and media propaganda are the instruments of choice. Only after the balance of power has shifted irreversibly, the elites and middle classes come to terms with the new political field and settle for a social compromise which includes everyone in political, economic, social and cultural life, but guarantees safeguards for their own interests in a democratic system.
In Thailand, both sides wrongly believe they can win this conflict. Only if the realization sinks in that the “other side” will not disappear, or some auspicious event (…) will change the equation, only then the renegotiation of the social contract can start.
Sleeping dogs
Hi plan B, I think you make a good point about being careful not to blame the majority.
But I also think it is important for everyone to reflect carefully upon whether or not there are common biases and misperceptions that make it easier for extreme nationalism (even a call to violence) to grab hold. Can we say the majority of folks in Myanmar are generally tolerant – and yet also say that biases, misperceptions, and fears of the ‘other’ are common? I think so. That’s ultimately what has to be addressed – and that’ll take more than a few inter-faith conferences!
Sleeping dogs
Hi Jon, at the opening of the event there was a request for Chatham House rules, so I tried to give us much information while still complying with that.
Middle class rage threatens democracy
Thanks for all these useful comments. Maybe I need to clarify a bit.
Actually I am talking about middle classES (plural) in the political economy analysis, which includes the BKK middle class, emerging peripheral middle classes in the North and Northeast (as described by Andrew Walker and others), and “urban villagers” (as describes by Pankaj Mishra).
An additional ethno-geographic dimension would surely be useful to describe the overall conflict dynamic, and of course as noted by others, the elite struggle behind the scenes (I will write on that separately).
The gist of this piece, however, focuses on the Bangkok middle class (singular) and its myths, discourses, fears and anger. Not because this class decides or explains everything, but because in the long run, you cannot democratize society without it.
So this article should be understood as a piece of a bigger puzzle, and many other pieces need to be added to it.
Middle class rage threatens democracy
“. . . this country will never change without a dictator of some probity who has the resolve to take off a few heads . . .”
Sorry, but I doubt if Lee Kuan Yew can be inveigled to come out of retirement now.
Middle class rage threatens democracy
Pravit is about as anti-Nation as The Nation gets
Tulsathit and is gang are a bunch of clowns. Pravit is well worth reading.
Middle class rage threatens democracy
Neptunian: I suggest you have a look what Pravit Rojanapruek has been standing for, and what his role at The Nation is.
Middle class rage threatens democracy
The moment anyone quotes “The Nation” he / she loses all credibility.
BTW, people who want to grab power against the wishes or welfare of the majority will use anything or anyone for their own benefit. Love and loyalty has nothing to do with it.
Declaring to speak for the majority and yet not wanting to give a say to anyone but themselves is pure bunk.
Middle class rage threatens democracy
“Drunk with the power of the electoral mandate, governments tend to display arrogance of power, and blatantly disregard constitutional checks and balances. Endemic corruption, nepotism and cronyism act as the lightning rod for middle class outrage.”
Right in the money! Thai middle class rage against the Thaksin arrogant kleptocracy and disregard for constitutional checks and balances.
Middle class rage threatens democracy
Pravit of The Nation (22 Jan.) makes the observation that corruption is often seen as a motivating force, while another element obvious to all observers is ignored:
“To make matters worse, many are not openly talking about the other “big issue”, which has attracted so much hatred against Yingluck and her older brother, ousted and fugitive former premier Thaksin Shinawatra. We have all heard about corruption at rally sites, and the Thai media widely reported it, but what about the sense of insecurity over the future of the monarchy among protesters, with His Majesty at 86 and frail?
Those visiting the protest sites cannot fail to notice a good number of protesters wearing T-shirts with royalist slogans like: “People of HM the King” or “[The person] whom I love the most is the King” and that many such T-shirts are widely available on sale at protest sites. On January 13, the first day of the “shutdown”, I heard a protest leader on stage at Victory Monument declaring out of the blue that they would ensure the King would remain the head of state. Why such insecurity and why so little public discussion about it?”
Middle class rage threatens democracy
Do the Chinese somehow enter into analyses of the current events? Or are “middle-class Bangkokians” and “Thai-Chinese Bangkokians” interchangeable? What about these distinctions in the cities mentioned by Bernard SG?
Sleeping dogs
Matt,
At first I thought perhaps the interfaith dialogue was closed-door so you could not reveal the names of the speakers. Then pics started coming across my Facebook newsfeed and some more open discussion as well.
Is there a particular reason you did not quote the Sayadaws’ names with their quotations? It would be helpful to know who said what.
Thanks
Middle class rage threatens democracy
I find it very hard to take seriously anyone who gets their dander up about a post-coup criminal conviction that almost any Thai politician could be found guilty of if they were investigated and so charged, but have absolutely no qualms about the illegal military coup that tore up a constitution and sponsored the writing of a new one that set everything in motion for the anti-democratic forces at work in Thailand today.
Dave Everett and fighting for the KNLA
The Regiment uses you up and when you are no longer of any use to them or the Government they throw you away.
Middle class rage threatens democracy
Reply to Marc Saxer:
“ When the middle class realizes that their interests are best guarded by social justice, the doors to new social development will open.”
Unfortunately, Thaksin Shinawatra’s latest proxy government has proven to be grossly inept in this task – to the point of being counterproductive. Moreover, Red Shirt propaganda that PM Abhisit would undo popular policies such as universal health care have been proven wrong. Not that Mr Abhisit, as leader of the Democrat Party, hasn’t had to contend with the considerable influence of reactionary conservatives in his party, but even as leader of a weak coalition government, he was able to implement real and substantial reforms to education and rice purchases from which both the poor and middle classes had most to gain – and which were promptly reversed by Thaksin’s proxys as part of the ongoing effort to demonize any and all the political opponents he was unable to co-opt into his parliamentary dictatorship. Let’s not forget that it was an open secret not long ago that Thaksin was paying a large block of Senators a retainer of 50,000 baht per month in order to control the Upper House.
I believe that the above factors are playing a large part the middle-class revolt against Thaksin’s proven autocracy for Suthep’s potential one. However,it would take a lot to convince me that a politician as wily as Kamnan Suthep isn’t well aware that the make-up of his reform council must be broadly acceptable to the Thai people. Right now though, we are seeing ambit claims by Suthep matched by Yinluck’s ‘say anything to hang on to power’ hollow rhetoric, no more laid bare than her rejection of the recommendation from the head of her own reform committee just last week that, in the best interest of reform, she should resign immediately.
“ In the bigger picture, however, the role of the protests is to lend legitimacy to an illegitimate power grab.”
In my opinion, this conclusion is unjustified: Such fears have been greatly overblown and form part of a deliberately distorted succession narrative, intended to benefit certain opportunistic writers and politicians, which is not supported by strong evidence of the natural, gradual erosion of monarchical influence during recent decades which, I strongly suspect, will quicken with the inevitable passing of King Bhumibol.
Middle class rage threatens democracy
It is strictly political and control – Morals has nothing to do with it. Unless you consider the owners of the biggest chain o whorehouse in Thailand as morally upright individuals?! Noting that they are part of the “demonstrators” leadership.
Middle class rage threatens democracy
Yes there’s distinction to the middle class in Bangkok and in the provinces. From my observation, I think the middle class in Bangkok considered themselves as part of the traditional elite. Although some just moved to Bangkok recently, they want to be a part of the hi-so circuit and willing to do anything to be seen as one so they join in the gang, knowingly they are not supporting the democratic cause.
While the middle class in the provinces are more about opportunity and equality. Social classes is a thing of the past generation and should be irrelevant in the democratic society. But of cause, we cant throw away the succession matter that’s going on behind the scene as well.
Sleeping dogs
Ko Moe Aung authoritative take on this much maligned tradition #17.1
http://www.newmandala.org/2013/12/19/beyond-bigotry-unravelling-ethnic-violence-in-rakhine/#comments
Matt
The first thing one must avoid is blame the majority here. Even ordinary Buddhist do not like to be maligned through their tradition.
The Sayadaw wise side stepping, presented as political is another kind of accusation that will further drain the sympathy.
Myanmar is a Buddhist country. Promote the multitude of Buddhist tolerance to promote the minority rights, that incidentally Islam do not seem to understand or practice when are majority.
ALL that interfaith conferences will ever accomplish is a kum ba yah moment that hopefully allow ROL to catch up.
Expecting these encounters to solve any part of a quagmire of west useless careless legacy?
Time for a bhikkhuni sangha?
It has been established that the lineage can be, has been re-established 🙂 but of course not officially ..