Where were these rectors when the military had their illegal coup in 2006? Where were they when the criminal generals tear up the 1997 constitution? I cannot remember any of them standing up in defence of the constitution or even complaining about the illegal coup.If I am wrong please let me know and I will apoligise for my further comments. How dare they have the gaul to criticise any elected govt over this incredibly stupid and misguided law? They and yourself are so anti democratic that it nears fascism. You all should take some time out and think for a change. I suggest you all take a long holiday in the despotic kingdom of Swaziland where you will enjoy the politics.
“The numbers Col. Jeru, the numbers” Thaksin explained.
I had a chance meeting with Thaksin at a Singapore MRT a week ago and after trading insults, asked him straight “Why Thaksin?”
Thaksin continued “2.2 trillion baht megainfrastructure, multi-billion baht flood/water management, rice pledge and many more billions-spending schemes to come Jeru; and, the 30% standard cut remember?”
“After the Yingluck Davos speech, those hard-nosed foreign businessmen are not confident, understandably, of parting with that 30% with Yingluck in charge. Thus the urgency for me Thaksin-the-Great to take charge or bye-bye 30%.”
Brings it on! This is good for democracy( so long that the Thai does not kill each other). And let hope the ordinary people become enlightened in the process.
My theory is that the blanket amnesty was put forward because the main players on the Dem/PAD side have already got an amnesty. Redshirts and lese majeste people are in prison but there’s not too many yellows. From memory, I think that even the guy who reversed his pickup over a cop breaking both his legs got a suspended sentence.
1. The army was amnestied because they were “only following orders”. Prayuth therefore is innocent because he was just following orders. Snipers are innocent.
2. The PAD leaders have a de facto amnesty because the courts politely ask them to turn up but adjourn the appointment when the PAD claim pressing business in other provinces or because they have not yet briefed legal counsel. It is 5 years since their occupation of Government House and the airports. We’re not seriously expected to believe that they are going to face a proper trial, are we?
3. I believe that the DSI are pursuing the murder charges against Suthep and Abhisit not as a collective charge but as a series of individual cases. It might annoy them and hamstring them somewhat but I think it is not until some time next century that we might expect the conclusion of these cases.
4.Given the the totally straightforward, unbiased Thai courts and their resolution to only put bad people in jail, I don’t think we’ll see the honest, well-educated, patriotic, uncorrupt,lovers of the monarchy going there.
So since so many people already have an amnesty and since the Dems (and presumably those bastions of democracy the appointed senators) had indicated that they would utterly oppose Worachai Hema’s original bill which would at least release the redshirt prisoners but still keep Thaksin out and reserve prosecution for the leaders, it seems to me that Thaksin thought he might as well go for broke and get himself (and everybody else)off the hook and back into Thailand. Put the setting back to zero, as he said.
Having said that it’s still a manipulative, cynical attempt to get himself back on top of the mountain over the bodies of the dead at Ratchaprasong and Democracy Monument.And the lese majeste prisoners.
The Thai intelligentsia must be totally disgusted with Yingluck and the PT Party. At today’s meeting by university rectors and Education Minister Chaturon, university rectors urge 310 MPs to apologise over amnesty bill.
The apologies could do it. Formal apologies from the disgusting 310 MPs and apologies from a truly disgusting PM Yingluck and her cabinet.
We could be expecting the chants of “Yingluck get out” any time soon, I predict.
Thaksin has almost certainly won, but he just can’t stop himself getting ahead of the music. He is incapable of just sitting back in his comfortable armchair in Dubai with a big glass of Mekhong and soda, and watching in amusement as his enemies make fools of themselves in their kamikaze efforts to evade defeat. He has failed to learn something that King Bhumibol learned by accident during his reign – sometimes just doing nothing is the most effective thing you can do.
Even though Thaksin’s enemies know the battle is probably already lost, they are desperate to prevent him becoming kingmaker, more desperate than he realises. Their desperation is making them do a lot of really dumb things. Thaksin’s impatience is making him do a lot of really dumb things too. Plus, he sucks at karaoke.
So it’s like a lethal party game of musical chairs, in which the people who don’t have a seat when the music stops get tortured in one way or another, while the winners get a small but substantial share of a $50+ billion jackpot. So one can understand why the pressure is making the players a little jumpy.
And that’s it, in a nutshell.
Anyone interested in the broader story of what is going on can find the answer in my article р╕Бр╕ер╕╡р╕вр╕╕р╕Д, a revisionist history of Thailand’s crisis based on more than a thousand interviews with informed sources over the past year.
Incidentally, I already have a copy of “Thailand’s Political Peasants”, and while it is a marvellous book, frankly one is enough. So please don’t give me any green thumbs. I’m just playing the game for the thrill of taking part. Namaste!
“He did not improve the lives of the poor.” Try telling that to Thailand’s rural masses. I think you will get a dusty answer. Why else would they have continued to vote steadfastly for his parties if it were not for 30 baht healthcare, the village fund, micro-finance etc. and now the rice-pledging scheme? Don’t tell me their votes were simply bought out of his own pocket, because even if all his funds were returned to him, he would hardly be able to match the cost of the afore-mentioned projects.
“[Corruption]was much worse under Thaksin”. The trouble with trying to quantify corruption is that nobody keeps, let alone publishes the books! All we have to go on is perception. So it is noteworthy that Transparency International and the World Bank have each produced annual indices which demonstrate clearly that the perception of corruption improved year on year during Thaksin’s administrations, suffered a reverse and continued decline immediately after the coup and has begun to improve again during his sister’s term.
I think that this is is a carefully designed plan to get the protesters to come out and show the people of Thailand, and the world, who their opposition is, what they are about, and how they will act. It is working quite well, the Dems walked out, and they have joined the street protests openly. the Protests are not a united body as in 2008, and do not have the same goals and ideals, except to show their opposition to that amnesty bill,
and the numbers are a lot smaller than in 2008.
My theory is the opposite of Patrick Jory’s.
I don’t think this is “impetousness” on Thaksin’s part. Nor do I think it is “overconfidence”. Certainly NOT “underestimation”.
At this stage, Thaksin is merely cleverly, testing the waters. He’s in no hurry, he’s not panicking, and he’s certainly not “out of touch”.
He – and even his opponents have given plenty of “outs” – plenty of compromise exits from the developing confrontation. For example the Senate could delay the amnesty bill for up to six months – anything can happen within that time-frame. The Senate could also amend the bill, reducing it to its original form – in which amnesty was only going to be limited to those charged with minor crimes, i.e. SOME Red Shirts would be released.
it’s a clever strategy by Thaksin, because his move now means he’s testing his red Shirts support – how and what he can do with it.
Yingluck is already offering olive branches, and she was wisely in Lopburi at the time of the actual vote. So evades direct responsibility for, as does Thaksin’s son.
Thaksin knows that even though X and Y are not such major factors as previously, he knows that it’s still early days because he has to contend with 1) the Privy Council, and 2) the military. Not necessarily in that order of importance, and in addition to the street protests.
Des Ball must be an accomplished diplomat, hovering for so many decades between the bright, outward-looking researchers at the ANU, and the bone-headed xenophobes of military “intelligence”.
Since I have been referenced in some of the discussion about the amnesty bill, I would like to first confirm that the quote from me on the website of Dr.Pun-Arj Chairatana was accurate, although the web link seems to have been discontinued. What I said was “One of the things you have to realize that Thaksin did was to create a sense of rural empowerment. And that meant that people saw themselves not just as the votes you buy or the votes that you recruit, but also they have a sense of voting for themselves.” I should probably have said “inspire” rather than “create”, but the fact remains that Thaksin and the Thai Rak Thai Party (the predecessor of the Pheu Thai Party) did serve as the catalyst for the emergence of a strong sense of rural empowerment, especially in the rural NE. I have developed this argument much more fully in my forthcoming book, FINDING THEIR VOICE: NORTHEASTERN VILLAGERS AND THE THAI STATE (to be published by Silkworm next year). As I think I demonstrate well in the book, most NE villagers have supported TRT and PT not because they believe that Thaksin is an ideal leader or because they have been bought, but because they have made the rational decision that no other party — certainly not the Democrat – really listens to or understands their concerns. This said, I have long been critical of Thaksin for his violation of human rights and his self-serving approach to politics. It is sad that an amnesty bill is being promoted that serves the political ends of Thaksin and some of his (non-rural) coterie of supporters rather than being predicated on the principles of justice and accountability.
I believe it has very urgent for Thaksin S. to come home. Because ex-wife Potjaman (a) wants to remarry another dashing and young Lt. Colonel (b) is in the process of claiming a larger slice of their conjugal wealth including the “frozen” loot and (c) has declared to the clan that she wants to and will be the next Thai PM.
OK, I’ll carry on!
The squeaky clean “City State” is also infamous as a money-laundering haven for all kinds of dictators, despots, princelings, drug warlords, etc. from the neighbourhood (Burma and China are not that far away!). Please come and clean your dirty cash at the Money-Laundromat-Banks of the Lion City where low-wage slave-like maids toil to clean your dirty laundry and the like.
Happy now?
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Back to Thailand’s future
Where were these rectors when the military had their illegal coup in 2006? Where were they when the criminal generals tear up the 1997 constitution? I cannot remember any of them standing up in defence of the constitution or even complaining about the illegal coup.If I am wrong please let me know and I will apoligise for my further comments. How dare they have the gaul to criticise any elected govt over this incredibly stupid and misguided law? They and yourself are so anti democratic that it nears fascism. You all should take some time out and think for a change. I suggest you all take a long holiday in the despotic kingdom of Swaziland where you will enjoy the politics.
Why Thailand needs its king
why not as Thai People, why the love the king?
There is no colour between this love – Reds and Yellows love him.
For this, the question is stupid. Nobody ask Catholics, why we need the pope.
Unsilenced
Haris is THE MAN 🙂
Greg, thanks for being part of the crew in getting Haris to speak in Australia, in particular, at the ANU.
I wish I could have had been in the audience at the ANU but I am sure you and the rest of the mob would have more than made up for my absence 🙂
Show us your theories
“The numbers Col. Jeru, the numbers” Thaksin explained.
I had a chance meeting with Thaksin at a Singapore MRT a week ago and after trading insults, asked him straight “Why Thaksin?”
Thaksin continued “2.2 trillion baht megainfrastructure, multi-billion baht flood/water management, rice pledge and many more billions-spending schemes to come Jeru; and, the 30% standard cut remember?”
“After the Yingluck Davos speech, those hard-nosed foreign businessmen are not confident, understandably, of parting with that 30% with Yingluck in charge. Thus the urgency for me Thaksin-the-Great to take charge or bye-bye 30%.”
“
Taking a stance
Brings it on! This is good for democracy( so long that the Thai does not kill each other). And let hope the ordinary people become enlightened in the process.
Show us your theories
My theory is that the blanket amnesty was put forward because the main players on the Dem/PAD side have already got an amnesty. Redshirts and lese majeste people are in prison but there’s not too many yellows. From memory, I think that even the guy who reversed his pickup over a cop breaking both his legs got a suspended sentence.
1. The army was amnestied because they were “only following orders”. Prayuth therefore is innocent because he was just following orders. Snipers are innocent.
2. The PAD leaders have a de facto amnesty because the courts politely ask them to turn up but adjourn the appointment when the PAD claim pressing business in other provinces or because they have not yet briefed legal counsel. It is 5 years since their occupation of Government House and the airports. We’re not seriously expected to believe that they are going to face a proper trial, are we?
3. I believe that the DSI are pursuing the murder charges against Suthep and Abhisit not as a collective charge but as a series of individual cases. It might annoy them and hamstring them somewhat but I think it is not until some time next century that we might expect the conclusion of these cases.
4.Given the the totally straightforward, unbiased Thai courts and their resolution to only put bad people in jail, I don’t think we’ll see the honest, well-educated, patriotic, uncorrupt,lovers of the monarchy going there.
So since so many people already have an amnesty and since the Dems (and presumably those bastions of democracy the appointed senators) had indicated that they would utterly oppose Worachai Hema’s original bill which would at least release the redshirt prisoners but still keep Thaksin out and reserve prosecution for the leaders, it seems to me that Thaksin thought he might as well go for broke and get himself (and everybody else)off the hook and back into Thailand. Put the setting back to zero, as he said.
Having said that it’s still a manipulative, cynical attempt to get himself back on top of the mountain over the bodies of the dead at Ratchaprasong and Democracy Monument.And the lese majeste prisoners.
Back to Thailand’s future
The Thai intelligentsia must be totally disgusted with Yingluck and the PT Party. At today’s meeting by university rectors and Education Minister Chaturon, university rectors urge 310 MPs to apologise over amnesty bill.
The apologies could do it. Formal apologies from the disgusting 310 MPs and apologies from a truly disgusting PM Yingluck and her cabinet.
We could be expecting the chants of “Yingluck get out” any time soon, I predict.
Show us your theories
My theory is a complex one, drawing on the semiotics of age-old Thai rituals of legitimacy and masculine power. I call it the “My Way model”.
Click here and all will become clear.
Thaksin has almost certainly won, but he just can’t stop himself getting ahead of the music. He is incapable of just sitting back in his comfortable armchair in Dubai with a big glass of Mekhong and soda, and watching in amusement as his enemies make fools of themselves in their kamikaze efforts to evade defeat. He has failed to learn something that King Bhumibol learned by accident during his reign – sometimes just doing nothing is the most effective thing you can do.
Even though Thaksin’s enemies know the battle is probably already lost, they are desperate to prevent him becoming kingmaker, more desperate than he realises. Their desperation is making them do a lot of really dumb things. Thaksin’s impatience is making him do a lot of really dumb things too. Plus, he sucks at karaoke.
So it’s like a lethal party game of musical chairs, in which the people who don’t have a seat when the music stops get tortured in one way or another, while the winners get a small but substantial share of a $50+ billion jackpot. So one can understand why the pressure is making the players a little jumpy.
And that’s it, in a nutshell.
Anyone interested in the broader story of what is going on can find the answer in my article р╕Бр╕ер╕╡р╕вр╕╕р╕Д, a revisionist history of Thailand’s crisis based on more than a thousand interviews with informed sources over the past year.
Incidentally, I already have a copy of “Thailand’s Political Peasants”, and while it is a marvellous book, frankly one is enough. So please don’t give me any green thumbs. I’m just playing the game for the thrill of taking part. Namaste!
Seeds of Thai democracy
“He did not improve the lives of the poor.” Try telling that to Thailand’s rural masses. I think you will get a dusty answer. Why else would they have continued to vote steadfastly for his parties if it were not for 30 baht healthcare, the village fund, micro-finance etc. and now the rice-pledging scheme? Don’t tell me their votes were simply bought out of his own pocket, because even if all his funds were returned to him, he would hardly be able to match the cost of the afore-mentioned projects.
Seeds of Thai democracy
“[Corruption]was much worse under Thaksin”. The trouble with trying to quantify corruption is that nobody keeps, let alone publishes the books! All we have to go on is perception. So it is noteworthy that Transparency International and the World Bank have each produced annual indices which demonstrate clearly that the perception of corruption improved year on year during Thaksin’s administrations, suffered a reverse and continued decline immediately after the coup and has begun to improve again during his sister’s term.
Show us your theories
I think that this is is a carefully designed plan to get the protesters to come out and show the people of Thailand, and the world, who their opposition is, what they are about, and how they will act. It is working quite well, the Dems walked out, and they have joined the street protests openly. the Protests are not a united body as in 2008, and do not have the same goals and ideals, except to show their opposition to that amnesty bill,
and the numbers are a lot smaller than in 2008.
Show us your theories
My theory is the opposite of Patrick Jory’s.
I don’t think this is “impetousness” on Thaksin’s part. Nor do I think it is “overconfidence”. Certainly NOT “underestimation”.
At this stage, Thaksin is merely cleverly, testing the waters. He’s in no hurry, he’s not panicking, and he’s certainly not “out of touch”.
He – and even his opponents have given plenty of “outs” – plenty of compromise exits from the developing confrontation. For example the Senate could delay the amnesty bill for up to six months – anything can happen within that time-frame. The Senate could also amend the bill, reducing it to its original form – in which amnesty was only going to be limited to those charged with minor crimes, i.e. SOME Red Shirts would be released.
it’s a clever strategy by Thaksin, because his move now means he’s testing his red Shirts support – how and what he can do with it.
Yingluck is already offering olive branches, and she was wisely in Lopburi at the time of the actual vote. So evades direct responsibility for, as does Thaksin’s son.
Thaksin knows that even though X and Y are not such major factors as previously, he knows that it’s still early days because he has to contend with 1) the Privy Council, and 2) the military. Not necessarily in that order of importance, and in addition to the street protests.
Show us your theories
Righto. I’ll keep it under 200,000 words then.
Show us your theories
Hi Andrew,
The theory should be stated “succinctly”. Let’s see how you go :-).
Best wishes to all,
Nich
Show us your theories
Is there a wordage limit?
Top honour for Professor Des Ball
Des Ball must be an accomplished diplomat, hovering for so many decades between the bright, outward-looking researchers at the ANU, and the bone-headed xenophobes of military “intelligence”.
Back to Thailand’s future
Since I have been referenced in some of the discussion about the amnesty bill, I would like to first confirm that the quote from me on the website of Dr.Pun-Arj Chairatana was accurate, although the web link seems to have been discontinued. What I said was “One of the things you have to realize that Thaksin did was to create a sense of rural empowerment. And that meant that people saw themselves not just as the votes you buy or the votes that you recruit, but also they have a sense of voting for themselves.” I should probably have said “inspire” rather than “create”, but the fact remains that Thaksin and the Thai Rak Thai Party (the predecessor of the Pheu Thai Party) did serve as the catalyst for the emergence of a strong sense of rural empowerment, especially in the rural NE. I have developed this argument much more fully in my forthcoming book, FINDING THEIR VOICE: NORTHEASTERN VILLAGERS AND THE THAI STATE (to be published by Silkworm next year). As I think I demonstrate well in the book, most NE villagers have supported TRT and PT not because they believe that Thaksin is an ideal leader or because they have been bought, but because they have made the rational decision that no other party — certainly not the Democrat – really listens to or understands their concerns. This said, I have long been critical of Thaksin for his violation of human rights and his self-serving approach to politics. It is sad that an amnesty bill is being promoted that serves the political ends of Thaksin and some of his (non-rural) coterie of supporters rather than being predicated on the principles of justice and accountability.
Show us your theories
I believe it has very urgent for Thaksin S. to come home. Because ex-wife Potjaman (a) wants to remarry another dashing and young Lt. Colonel (b) is in the process of claiming a larger slice of their conjugal wealth including the “frozen” loot and (c) has declared to the clan that she wants to and will be the next Thai PM.
Angkor revisited
Howard, thanks for your comment. Please drop me a line at [email protected].
Regards,
Jame
Maid to order in Singapore
OK, I’ll carry on!
The squeaky clean “City State” is also infamous as a money-laundering haven for all kinds of dictators, despots, princelings, drug warlords, etc. from the neighbourhood (Burma and China are not that far away!). Please come and clean your dirty cash at the Money-Laundromat-Banks of the Lion City where low-wage slave-like maids toil to clean your dirty laundry and the like.
Happy now?