Nick, *why* do you think the UDD is fracturing? Is it superficial or an issue with the leadership? Is it similar to how the PAD split, in that some groups had more extremist views on certain issues?
The Dems claimed the UDD were part of, and fully supported, the MiB. Now the Dems claim the MiB were paid by Thaksin and the UDD leaders to kill members of the UDD.
Am I the only one that sees this contradiction?
Before, the Dems claimed Seh Daeng was the leader of the MiB. And then he was shot. Are the Dems now claiming Thaksin paid the MiB to kill the leader of the MiB?
btw, after skimming through it, I saw no mention of Thaksin paying the MiB in the 2012 TRCT report.
An interesting piece Nick. What’s your analysis of the apparent split or divisions between the reformist and more revolutionary elelements of the red shirts? Where would you expect this to lead if the fractures widen. Should we just expect more diversity of political thought or would you expect the nature of the political action/direct action of the different groups to change significantly?
Often the terms “red shirts” and “UDD” are used synonymously in the media. From your article it seems as if this is now becoming increasinlgy inaccurate. Shoud red shirts be used as the generic term with UDD referring to the alliance of groups that are more closely associated with PTT.
When Tithinan spoke at the FCCT a couple of months ago he said he hopes their wasn’t a major fracture between the PTT and the majority of the red shirts. He thought that Thida was proving herself as an able leader and that any major fractures would probably lead to a more radicalised and potentially violent movement (or at least elements of the movement), what is your opinion on these matters?
What is your response to Frithe’s comments and inquiries. Are the corporate farmers banking in Gmo Practices and are the farmlands beings exploited if these facts aren’t disclosed or explained in a manner that the villagers can understand?
For me the lasting image from Chris Coles previous Opening (at The Bed Supper Club) was the US Ambassador engaged in deep conversation with a couple of ladies from Soi Cowboy. I wonder were they talking Red Shirt politics, the state of the economy or the meaning of Chris’s art? Wish I could have been a ching chok on the wall.
Well, I don’t know why Lao people always hope that help will come from outside. Nobody will mess with the souverenity of your state only because things develop not as pleasant as you wanted them. If you want change, kick your corrupt family members in their lazy arses instead of sitting around and mourning. This system is not god given, it is supported by the majority of the people because everybody hopeto get a share of the cake one day.
I may be wrong, and of course I should actually read the book first– but in your review and in your response, I am still seeing some ambivalence on your part as well, regarding whether equitable and adequately paced national economic development needs to be associated with some degree of old-fashioned “peasant squeezing” and primitive accumulation; or whether de-agrarianization can be achieved by more effective industrial policy alone, “incentivizing/pulling” peasants from the countryside and into urban centers.
In the case of Malaysia, I wonder whether Kuhonta’s analysis takes into account the extent to which oil and gas royalties from Sarawak has subsidized industrial development in peninsular Malaysia. This situation has left Sarawak more heavily dependent upon timber royalties, which has in turn has been associated with no small degree of “peasant squeezing” and dispossession in the case of rural populations in that state.
Your thoughts welcome – again though these are just provisional reactions, i will get to actually reading the book soon.
While the Red Shirts as a whole have always, from the start, aimed at more than just Thaksin’s return (contrary to what many Red Shirt opponents believe), no significant Red Shirt group is ready, or willing to separate from Thaksin. That stems to some part from genuine support for Thaksin based on his time as Prime Minister, and to some part from pragmatic reasons – meaning that without Thaksin they would lose mass appeal especially in the rural areas. The relationship between Thaksin and the Red Shirts is partly genuine support, and partly strategic alliance, and it definitely is not just a one way street. Both sides need each other.
The statement of being more revolutionary as opposed to reformist comes from chats with several of the organizers of this group, both during this rally, and from speaking with some of them often over the course of the past years. Revolutionary in this sense though does not mean in a violent sense, no building of people’s brigades 😉 , this is meant more in an ideological sense.
As to speeches on the stages, some of them were quite interesting, but i only occasionally listened in. There were photos to take, background chats with key people, etc…
As to their future, lets wait and see, it’s too early to make any prediction yet.
This website’s content is very misleading. Really, it is a disgrace. Shame on you! Lynas has done a very good job in trying to find the middle ground in this debate. I hope, that if Lynas does fall, future investment stays well away from Malaysia.
Thanks a lot Nick, for this update on current street politics.
For a while now there have been guesses, when the different groups in the red shirt movement would differentiate themselves in reaction to the pre-election deal that has apparently been struck between Phuea Thai, the military and the royalists. So, I’m wondering if this new umbrella group (Sor Bor Bor) is a manifestation of “free redshirts”, trying to shake off Thaksin?
Were there any programmatic speeches made at their 14 Oct. rally? Could you substantiate your statement that they see themselves as more revolutionary?
Look forward to your predictions for the Australian Capital Territory election Nich. Given your poor predictive performance for the Thai election you have some ground to make up. Readers can see the evidence here and here.
My prediction for ACT – 8 to Labor (one more than at present); 6 to Liberal (same); and 3 to the Greens (one less).
I judge it a significant issue. Of the 37 lower house seats the NLD won in April 2012 four are in Naypyidaw (Ottarathiri, Dekkhinathiri, Pobbathiri and Zabuthiri). Those are seats that were won, predictably enough, in the 2010 general election by the USDP. In 2010 the margins were some of the very highest in the land: 80.3 (U Myint Hlaing), 81.1 (U Tin Aung Myint Oo), 82.6 (U Thein Sein) and 92.8 (U Shwe Mann) percent margins of victory respectively. And when the seats changed hands in 2012 the “swings” against the USDP were just as incredible.
In an (as yet unpublished) analysis I write:
Even the public servants of the new capital have shown their true colours: Aung San Suu Kyi’s party swept to victory in the four Naypyidaw seats available in the April 2012 by-election.
As an anecdotal aside, last time I was wandering around Naypyidaw I noticed some of the Aung San Suu Kyi/Aung San paraphernalia that has proliferated elsewhere in the country in recent years. You could buy all of the normal stuff at the Naypyidaw market. My best guess is that Naypyidaw may, once all is said and done, tilt ever further from the old regime. It wouldn’t be the only capital city of my acquaintance where almost irrespective of the national mood there is a tendency to vote in what could be considered progressive directions.
Canberra, of course, goes to the polls this Saturday…
After having read all the comments and looked at the pictures and descriptions, I wonder whether Chris Coles is not just another “old hand” expat in Bangkok who enjoys the scene.
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Here were Men in Black!
All good questions/comments.
Nick, *why* do you think the UDD is fracturing? Is it superficial or an issue with the leadership? Is it similar to how the PAD split, in that some groups had more extremist views on certain issues?
Here were Men in Black!
The Dems claimed the UDD were part of, and fully supported, the MiB. Now the Dems claim the MiB were paid by Thaksin and the UDD leaders to kill members of the UDD.
Am I the only one that sees this contradiction?
Before, the Dems claimed Seh Daeng was the leader of the MiB. And then he was shot. Are the Dems now claiming Thaksin paid the MiB to kill the leader of the MiB?
btw, after skimming through it, I saw no mention of Thaksin paying the MiB in the 2012 TRCT report.
Here were Men in Black!
An interesting piece Nick. What’s your analysis of the apparent split or divisions between the reformist and more revolutionary elelements of the red shirts? Where would you expect this to lead if the fractures widen. Should we just expect more diversity of political thought or would you expect the nature of the political action/direct action of the different groups to change significantly?
Often the terms “red shirts” and “UDD” are used synonymously in the media. From your article it seems as if this is now becoming increasinlgy inaccurate. Shoud red shirts be used as the generic term with UDD referring to the alliance of groups that are more closely associated with PTT.
When Tithinan spoke at the FCCT a couple of months ago he said he hopes their wasn’t a major fracture between the PTT and the majority of the red shirts. He thought that Thida was proving herself as an able leader and that any major fractures would probably lead to a more radicalised and potentially violent movement (or at least elements of the movement), what is your opinion on these matters?
The benefits of contract farming
What is your response to Frithe’s comments and inquiries. Are the corporate farmers banking in Gmo Practices and are the farmlands beings exploited if these facts aren’t disclosed or explained in a manner that the villagers can understand?
Don Chan: once were tomatoes
Sad,more will be gone.
German expressionism and the Bangkok night
For me the lasting image from Chris Coles previous Opening (at The Bed Supper Club) was the US Ambassador engaged in deep conversation with a couple of ladies from Soi Cowboy. I wonder were they talking Red Shirt politics, the state of the economy or the meaning of Chris’s art? Wish I could have been a ching chok on the wall.
Stop Lynas, Save Malaysia
Dear MP, could you kindly point out, exactly what content is misleading?
Perhaps then NM readers can have a more meaningful discussion with you.
Best
Greg
Don Chan: once were tomatoes
Well, I don’t know why Lao people always hope that help will come from outside. Nobody will mess with the souverenity of your state only because things develop not as pleasant as you wanted them. If you want change, kick your corrupt family members in their lazy arses instead of sitting around and mourning. This system is not god given, it is supported by the majority of the people because everybody hopeto get a share of the cake one day.
Review of The Institutional Imperative
Hi Andrew:
I may be wrong, and of course I should actually read the book first– but in your review and in your response, I am still seeing some ambivalence on your part as well, regarding whether equitable and adequately paced national economic development needs to be associated with some degree of old-fashioned “peasant squeezing” and primitive accumulation; or whether de-agrarianization can be achieved by more effective industrial policy alone, “incentivizing/pulling” peasants from the countryside and into urban centers.
In the case of Malaysia, I wonder whether Kuhonta’s analysis takes into account the extent to which oil and gas royalties from Sarawak has subsidized industrial development in peninsular Malaysia. This situation has left Sarawak more heavily dependent upon timber royalties, which has in turn has been associated with no small degree of “peasant squeezing” and dispossession in the case of rural populations in that state.
Your thoughts welcome – again though these are just provisional reactions, i will get to actually reading the book soon.
Here were Men in Black!
While the Red Shirts as a whole have always, from the start, aimed at more than just Thaksin’s return (contrary to what many Red Shirt opponents believe), no significant Red Shirt group is ready, or willing to separate from Thaksin. That stems to some part from genuine support for Thaksin based on his time as Prime Minister, and to some part from pragmatic reasons – meaning that without Thaksin they would lose mass appeal especially in the rural areas. The relationship between Thaksin and the Red Shirts is partly genuine support, and partly strategic alliance, and it definitely is not just a one way street. Both sides need each other.
The statement of being more revolutionary as opposed to reformist comes from chats with several of the organizers of this group, both during this rally, and from speaking with some of them often over the course of the past years. Revolutionary in this sense though does not mean in a violent sense, no building of people’s brigades 😉 , this is meant more in an ideological sense.
As to speeches on the stages, some of them were quite interesting, but i only occasionally listened in. There were photos to take, background chats with key people, etc…
As to their future, lets wait and see, it’s too early to make any prediction yet.
Stop Lynas, Save Malaysia
This website’s content is very misleading. Really, it is a disgrace. Shame on you! Lynas has done a very good job in trying to find the middle ground in this debate. I hope, that if Lynas does fall, future investment stays well away from Malaysia.
Here were Men in Black!
Thanks a lot Nick, for this update on current street politics.
For a while now there have been guesses, when the different groups in the red shirt movement would differentiate themselves in reaction to the pre-election deal that has apparently been struck between Phuea Thai, the military and the royalists. So, I’m wondering if this new umbrella group (Sor Bor Bor) is a manifestation of “free redshirts”, trying to shake off Thaksin?
Were there any programmatic speeches made at their 14 Oct. rally? Could you substantiate your statement that they see themselves as more revolutionary?
Thanks a lot
Don Chan: once were tomatoes
Well written piece, look forward to comments from foreign delegates to AEPF and ASEM who get to observe ‘the great show’.
Myanmar’s new political geography
Look forward to your predictions for the Australian Capital Territory election Nich. Given your poor predictive performance for the Thai election you have some ground to make up. Readers can see the evidence here and here.
My prediction for ACT – 8 to Labor (one more than at present); 6 to Liberal (same); and 3 to the Greens (one less).
Myanmar’s new political geography
Thanks him moderator,
I judge it a significant issue. Of the 37 lower house seats the NLD won in April 2012 four are in Naypyidaw (Ottarathiri, Dekkhinathiri, Pobbathiri and Zabuthiri). Those are seats that were won, predictably enough, in the 2010 general election by the USDP. In 2010 the margins were some of the very highest in the land: 80.3 (U Myint Hlaing), 81.1 (U Tin Aung Myint Oo), 82.6 (U Thein Sein) and 92.8 (U Shwe Mann) percent margins of victory respectively. And when the seats changed hands in 2012 the “swings” against the USDP were just as incredible.
In an (as yet unpublished) analysis I write:
As an anecdotal aside, last time I was wandering around Naypyidaw I noticed some of the Aung San Suu Kyi/Aung San paraphernalia that has proliferated elsewhere in the country in recent years. You could buy all of the normal stuff at the Naypyidaw market. My best guess is that Naypyidaw may, once all is said and done, tilt ever further from the old regime. It wouldn’t be the only capital city of my acquaintance where almost irrespective of the national mood there is a tendency to vote in what could be considered progressive directions.
Canberra, of course, goes to the polls this Saturday…
Best wishes to all,
Nich
Myanmar’s new political geography
Great job Nich
A follow up must to Andrew Selth bibilio.
Evidence of racism in Malaysia?
Hi Faz,
Do read this article.
http://www.newmandala.org/2010/06/20/origins-and-evolution-of-ethnocracy-in-malaysia/
ps: I’m told that a racist does not know that he/she is a racist, because he/she truly believes that what he/she doing is not racist.
Myanmar’s new political geography
Nick, you failed to point out that Naypyidaw voters, almost all of whom are civil servants or military, voted NLD in 2012. Significant?
Review of The Institutional Imperative
I wonder if this old report is of interest for those thinking about this topic? http://pdf.usaid.gov/pdf_docs/PNABK503.pdf
German expressionism and the Bangkok night
After having read all the comments and looked at the pictures and descriptions, I wonder whether Chris Coles is not just another “old hand” expat in Bangkok who enjoys the scene.