21:15 Jakarta time
We’ll be back in the morning with more news and thoughts about the legislative polls and what lies ahead in the presidential race.
20:10 Jakarta time Stay classy Bandung
Bandung PDI-P candidate Herman Budiyono channels San Diego’s most famous son, anchorman Ron Burgundy. Does he rate with the voters? Photo by Tom Power.
19:55 On a coalition course?
New Mandala’s Dominic Berger asks whether Indonesia is on the cusp of a progressive turn.
“Within weeks, parties will also have to form a governing coalition which commands a majority in the House of Representatives (DPR) during the parliamentary period of 2014-2019,” writes Berger.
“In effect, parties will begin to ask themselves whether they want to be part of a PDI-P-led government, or not. It is almost certain now that from 2014 until the next legislative elections in 2019, the PDI-P will hold the highest number of seats in the house. In addition, it is increasingly likely that Jokowi will be elected president on 9 July. As a result, parties will either have to fall in line with a PDIP-led government, or endure five long years in opposition.”
Read the full article here
19:45 Jakarta time
The post highlights some splits within PDI-P about how to adapt to the place that their presidential candidate should hold in the party:
Shortly before polling day, a senior member of PDI-P fretted that the party’s advertising strategy had failed to capitalise on the Jokowi factor. Until the last few days prior to the election, PDI-P’s television ads continued to feature Megawati’s daughter and parliamentary faction chief, Puan Maharani, rather than the popular presidential hopeful. As Liam Gammon pointed out on this blog, the party’s advertising strategy had the potential to undermine PDI-P’s legislative result by failing to draw attention to Jokowi’s nomination by the party. Apparently these fears have been realised.
19:30 Jakarta time
Metro TV was really the place to be this election night, with the coverage now anchored by their star performer Najwa Shihab.
She surprised viewers by welcoming Jokowi on to the stage (to the tunes of one of his favourite bands, Metallica), to ask him about his impressions of the results. He was characteristically guarded, obviously not wanting to openly express frustration about what happened today. (The Jakarta grapevine has it that he’s very unhappy about the way the party’s head office ran the legislative campaign). He also gave little away when Najwa asked him about coalitions between PDI-P and other parties, and his choice of a vice-president. All he said was, basically, that everything is on the table. Make of that what you will.
Jaws were rendered slightly ajar at New Mandala when former vice-president, the irrepressible Jusuf Kalla, entered the studio. Kalla has made little secret of his ambition to be Jokowi’s vice presidential candidate, so this must have been awkward for Jokowi (who looked suprised to see Kalla).
It got stranger still when current Minister for State Owned Enterprises, media tycoon, and wannabe Demokrat Party presidential candidate Dahlan Iskan made his way to the stage to the sounds of Gangnam Style. Dahlan congratulated Jokowi and PDI-P and offered his nutshell analysis of the results in an East Java accent so pronounced you often have to wonder whether he’s putting it on.
Then it was time for Basuki Tjahaja Purnama (aka Ahok), Jokowi’s vice-governor in Jakarta and the Gerindra man on their winning 2012 ticket, to show up (he was welcomed by the theme tune from Pulp Fiction) and try not to say anything awkward. If Jokowi becomes president, he becomes Governor of Jakarta–one of the most significant political gigs in Indonesia.
It all made for great TV, and if we can find it on YouTube in the morning we might put up a more detailed summary.
19:05 A sight for sore eyes
How’s this for a campaign poster? Arif Setiawan, a candidate for Indonesia’s PKB party, jousts his way to the top with a medieval campaign theme.
Check out more eye-popping posters over here.
18:32: Islamic party PKS have done considerably better than all the polls, an indicator of how affective their campaign was, and also the solidarity in their core constituency, largely across Java.
18:30 Aburizal Bakrie just tweeted congratulating PDI-P for their success. A cynic would say, in politics you are only nice when you want something….
18:28 Increasingly looking like a disappointing day for PDI-P. Ibu Mega and daughter Puan just gave a press conference not looking particularly happy, even a little stressed
18:02 Jakarta time One of the biggest surprises so far is that NasDem (formed by the National Democrats social movement) seems to be doing better than expected.
According to ANU PhD student, Tom Power, who has just returned from Indonesia, they have some good young candidates.
“They have fresh faces, and lots of women — the highest proportion of female candidates of any party, who are high up on ballot papers.
“And they look good on campaign posters. The party’s advertising strategies have also been strong and consistent across electorates.
“However, the biggest factor is that NasDem can run an anti-corruption campaign which is somewhat more believable for ordinary voters than the other major parties, because they are a non-parliamentary party and can’t be connected to the corruption scandals of the last five years.”
18:00 Magrib “Hayya ‘alashsh shalaah” (Lets pray)
17:58 Aceh update: Partai Aceh will win significantly in the province. We are receiving some reports that subtle intimidation has been going on to vote for Partai Aceh. Despite the rule that all banners had to come down, there are reports of banners of Partai Aceh remaining in the capital of the province.
17:55 Jakarta time There’s a bear in there
A coalition without parties? Is Big Ted Bakrie’s only partner?
17:50 Jakarta time 75% of votes counted.
PDI-P struggling to do as well as they had hoped, still below 20%. Supporters of Jokowi are blaming Megawati’s daughter Puan for hindering the campaign by insisting that TV ads featured her and not Jokowi himself until late in the campaign.
Gerindra at 12% – Prabowo just held a press conference at which he thanked party workers and said it was a party for the future and new generation. Well, at least 12% of them anyway.
Golkar as predicted at 14%. Rumours coming through to us about potential future coalitions between PDI-P and Golkar
SBY’s Partai Demokrat at around 10%, slightly higher than expected.
Islamic Party PKS a stronger result than all polls predicted.
NasDem at 7% doing surprisingly well. And no, that’s not just because we are watching MetroTV…
17:40 Jakarta time
Oh look it’s us! The New Mandala team in action covering the Indonesian legislative elections.
17:35 Jakarta time
Former Jakarta governor and General Sutiyoso, who once fled Australia when he was asked to attend the NSW Coroner’s Court case on the deaths of the Balibo Five, has formed his own party, PKP. His party is struggling to crack one per cent of the vote.
17:30 Jakarta time
Today more Indonesian voters headed to more than 500,000 booths to cast their ballots. Polling booths get creative to pull in voters using ‘unique’ ways to encourage voters into the booth to vote.
From around the Internet, Kirrilly McKenzie, brings us the top five.
1. In Bandung Spongebob and Patrick turned up at polling booth to encourage voters in. All around the polling booth were questionable versions of Spongebob and Patrick.
3. Yogyakarta voters were helped by Ramayana.
5. In Jakarta the KPK took the most interesting approach instead making their booth look like a prison.
17:10 Jakarta time Singing for his supper?
After July, Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono will no longer be calling the tunes in Indonesia. But the outgoing President, who is known for his crooning, may have a viable career in music. From around the interwebs, we bring you two of his great hits.
17:05 Jakarta time How important is the Golkar Party result? They tweeted four hours ago that Aburizal would not form a coalition with other political parties. We are wondering how he can stand for President without forming a coalition. Perhaps he knows something we don’t… or maybe the author of the tweets hasn’t read the KPU rules.
16: 55 Jakarta time Jokowi just holds a press conference saying his not reading much into anything yet in terms of the Presidential election. Seems pretty relaxed but slightly defensive.
16:35 Jakarta time More than 50 per cent of the Indikator quick count data we’re watching has been counted, and so far it looks like Jokowimania isn’t delivering PDI-P the lead many in the party were expecting.
With 52.5% of the sample in, PDI-P is struggling to crack 20% of the vote. PDI-P would be happy with a number in the high 20s, which their won internal polling was telling them was a likely outcome. Obviously, these numbers could still be reflecting a lack of numbers from PDI-P strongholds in Java. Here’s what Indikator’s polling predicted in a poll taken halfway through the legislative campaign: Dave McRae from Melbourne Uni also has a good post summarising the state of the polls before voting started. It will be interesting to see, as the evening wears on, if the quick count results begin to resemble these surveys more closely, or whether the pollsters overestimated the ‘Jokowi effect’. 15:20 Jakarta time Here at New Mandala we’ve been taking a look at the quirky side of Indonesia’s 2014 election season. On a serious note, One thing seems to be certain: Joko Widodo’s popularity is carrying his Indonesian Democracy Party-Struggle to win a significant proportion of the vote. All our experts here at the ANU College of Asia and the Pacific agree. As Liam Gammon writes, it’s ‘Jokowi’s’ election to lose. And this is despite the fact that at times he’s struggled to balance his image as man of the people andman of the party. Another likely trend is the declining influence of Indonesia’s Islamist parties, who are set for their worst results ever. As Greg Fealy says, for many Indonesians, Islam doesn’t have the political answers they are looking for. It has also been a colourful and controversial campaign – featuring former dangdut stars and models, pretty candidates transforming the ugly business of politics; ‘donut politics’; the paranormal; and a giant Garuda puppetchampioning the causes of Prabowo’s Gerindra Party. Karl Marx’s ‘opiate of the masses’, football, has reared its ugly head, as have the usual conspiracy theories and whispers of a coup – which as Jacqui Baker writes, seems to be the only real chance for SBY’s Demokrats. And for those who can’t win a ticket into the national parliament, the costs are bound to be high – not just financially but mentally, as Eve Warbuton writes. 15:15 Jakarta time Still wondering what on earth is going on? The Financial Times Indonesia bureau did a great explainer which lays out how Indonesia’s 2014 elections work 15:00 Jakarta time Quick count data are slowly rolling in, and with nearly 15% of the sample counted we’re beginning to see the outline of what happened today.
Apparently there’s a decent amount of data from Sumatra now available, but still not much from West Java (historically, fertile ground for Golkar and Islamic parties) and Central Java (a PDI-P stronghold). 14:45 Jakarta time
Allegedly or otherwise shonky pollies and bureaucrats detained by the Corruption Eradication Commission (KPK) have cast their votes at the KPK’s detention centre. Some of these include former ministers, the former head of the national traffic police, the former head of the oil and gas regulatory body, the former head of the constitutional court, and many other high-profile corruption suspects. The joke doing the rounds on the Indonesian twittersphere was that President Yudhoyono’s Demokrat Party would clean up at the KPK booth, given how many of the voters here are former administration officials. 14:10 Jakarta time Now seems a good time to point out that Indonesia–which stretches for more than 5,000km from east to west–has three time zones. Voting in Java, Sumatra and the western half of Kalimantan, therefore, ends up to two hours after the rest of the country. So far, then, the quick count results are influenced by reporting from booths in eastern Indonesia, where Golkar party has traditionally done well. We swiped this off Wikipedia, to show what happened in 2009. So, eastern Indonesia? That’s mostly Golkar country. If PDI-P does well here, as Eve Warburton wrote in New Mandala the other week, it will be a stunning illustration of the power of Jokowi’s presidential nomination in helping the party make inroads in the unlikely places. And when the numbers from Java come in, expect to see PDI-P’s share of the vote creep upwards. Watch this space. 13:50 Jakarta time Scrawled across a ballot for Indonesia’s rather obscure Regional Representatives’ Council, the upper house of parliament: WHO ARE YOU PEOPLE? 13:45 Jakarta time (WIB) With 0.65% of quick count data in, we’ve got a trend on Indikator’s numbers for Metro TV. PDI-P: 22.09%, Golkar 13.67%, Gerindra 12.81%, Demokrat 10.01%. 13:30 Jakarta time (WIB)
Joko Widodo’s deputy in Jakarta, Vice-Governor Basuki Tjahaja Purnama, had a little run in with some journos as he voted today. Basuki is (notionally at least) from Prabowo Subianto’s Gerindra party, and obviously stands to gain if his boss is elected president in July–he’s already the most prominent ethnic Chinese politician in Indonesia, and would become Jakarta’s first ever ethnic Chinese governor. Naturally, reporters at his booth cheekily asked him which party he voted for. He said ‘Gerindra!… As if I’d vote PDI-P (the party nominating Jokowi for president)”. He’s off to watch the results of the polls at Gerindra headquarters with Prabowo. 13:20 Jakarta time (WIB) The polls have been closed for 20 minutes now, and the TV networks have swung into action with their ‘quick counts–which are based on samples taken from polling booths across Indonesia by private polling companies. These are always done in Indonesian elections since the election commission (KPU) takes a long time to calculate the official results. On Metro TV, our ANU colleague Burhanuddin Muhtadi will be presenting quick count results done by Indikator, the polling firm he heads. We’ve used their results before (here and here) to discuss the state of the election campaign. Only 0.15% of Indikators’ quick count data are in and the results are all over the place, so we’ll get back to you when a trend is visible. 12:10 Jakarta Time (WIB) The first Exit-Polls are starting to be released. This one is by the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in collaboration with Cyrus Network (CN) has the PDIP at just under 20%. The poll is conducted at 2000 Voting Booths around the country, and these figures are based on close to 7000 responses.
1. Nasdem: 4,71% 2. PKB: 6,44% 3. PKS: 4,83% 4. PDIP: 19,58% 5. Golkar: 12,83% 6. Gerindra: 9,99% 7. PD: 7,87% 8. PAN: 4,23% 9. PPP: 4,40% 10. Hanura: 4,74% 14. PBB: 0,78% 15. PKPI: 0,47% *Of course, these are very preliminary results! We’ll be updating polls as they become available.* 11:45 Jakarta Time (WIB) Calm scenes at a typical Voting Booth in Jakarta. All pictures taken by Edward Aspinall
11:20 WIB PDI-P chairwoman Megawati Sukarnoputri, with daughter (and PDI-P executive board member) Puan Maharani, and Jokowi at the voting station near Megawati’s residence in Kebagusan, Jakarta 10:07 WIB Here at New Mandala we’ve been shining a light on the quirky side of Indonesian politics. You can see our back catalogue here. Eve Warburton wrote yesterday about how the stress and expense of standing for parliament in Indonesia leaves many candidates broke and depressed come election day.
Given that parties don’t offer financial support to their candidates, each must find their own sources of funding. The pressure to run a professional campaign pushes candidates to borrow money from family members and banks. Many lobby businesses for donations in return for political favours later down the track. The debts must then be settled after the elections – win or lose. And of course there is no assurance that financial transactions will yield results at the ballot box.
09:45 Jakarta time (WIB) Selamat pagi! Voting has begun in Indonesia’s legislative elections. Voting booths are open from 7am-1pm. Polling agencies will reveal exit-polls at around 1pm (4pm EST). By 1.30pm (4.30pm EST) officials will begin to count votes at polling booths. By about 3pm (6pm EST) polling agencies will announce quick-counts, based on these on-site counts. There are 187 million people on the electoral roll, and today they elect nearly 20,000 people to parliamentary seats at the national, provincial and local levels. It’s kind of a big deal. If you want to understand how Indonesia’s pretty complicated system of proportional representation works, check out this explainer from the Carnegie Endowment. We’ll be here throughout the day sharing results, our impressions of what’s going on, and whatever interesting tidbits we come across online or on TV. Follow us on Twitter
@IndoNewMandala. This morning, presidential candidate for PDI-Perjuangan party, the Jakarta Governor Joko Widodo, cast his ballot near his official residence in a posh neighbourhood of the capital with his wife Iriana (picture taken by @ccjnolan): His main rival in the July presidential race, Prabowo Subianto, voted for his own Gerindra party in a booth near his mountaintop lair outside Jakarta: