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Recent media reports have suggested that Burma may have embarked on a covert program of nuclear cooperation with North Korea to provide the means for developing its own nuclear weapon capabilities. Those reports don’t provide conclusive evidence of either intention or capability, but the thought that any Southeast Asian leadership might be thinking of heading down the nuclear path is unsettling for Canberra and for other Southeast Asian governments. Burmese proliferation would certainly reawaken a sleeping proliferation dynamic across the subregion. And it would bring an abrupt end to the Southeast Asia Nuclear-Weapon-Free Zone, of which Burma is a member.
– Extracted from Rod Lyon, “A delicate issue: Asia’s nuclear future”, Canberra: Australian Strategic Policy Institute, p. 25.
There’s more than ample evidence to suggest that Burma is trying to acquire nuclear weaponry.
The elaborate tunnel system being dug out, along with death sentences for people who’ve exposed them.
Meeting with North Korean nuclear scientests, along with death sentences being meted out to those who’ve revealed them.
The United States is concerned enough that it’s been flying drones over various construction sites inside Burma.
One has to wonder what the Chinese think about this, and what they intend to do, if anything.
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Charles F – can you provide any evidence that the US has flown drones over Myanmar?
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I have no firsthand evidence. I was told about it by some Karennis, and I read an article that mentioned it in passing.
The article, which I don’t have, stated that the drones were flying at such altitudes that SPDC troops would shoot at them, unsuccessfully.
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Charlie, no offense, but referring to an article that mentions something highly significant ‘in passing’ is hardly convincing.
… I wonder whether nuclear ambitions will add further glue and urgency to the formation of a united front?
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The Frog and Charles F.,
There are such reports, including Scott Johnson, “Scorched Earth, Scorched Intervention“, The Epoch Times, 28 June 2009. This may be the one that Charles F. read.
The relevant stanza is:
Last year the Sydney Morning Herald also reported (based on the Ball and Thornton research) that:
Best wishes to all,
Nich
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Nich,
Thanks for the assist. That IS the article I was referring to, though I couldn’t remember where I had read it.
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Following is from the Epoch Times web site FAQ section.
“The Epoch Times was originally founded by a group of Falun Gong practitioners inspired by the lack of information about the persecution of Falun Gong. The Epoch Times has since grown and diversified, and is now run by a large international staff that align themselves to the values in which the paper was founded.”
Are the news from a free weekly newspaper published as a propaganda mouth-piece for a well-known fanatic Buddhist cult really reliable as a reference for a serious issue like Burmese nuclear weapons?
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Apologies Charlie and Nich.
So engagement on more levels than just handshakes from Senator Webb! Comparatively, drones flying over another isolated regime like Syria is a major story easily google-able. Where are the drones being launched from in Thailand? Is violation of airspace a violation of sovereignty?
The Dictator Watch site seems a little dubious, but.. OK.
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Thanks The Frog and Hla Oo,
These are very helpful, thought-provoking comments.
I am not in a position to assess the quality of The Epoch Times/Dictator Watch anecdote. I know that at my local supermarket The Epoch Times is available, free-of-charge. I have only looked at it once-or-twice.
And, of course, I agree with the more general point that we need to be very cautious about all of the evidence swirling around these matters. Reliability (and dubiousness, etc.) needs to be taken into consideration. Perhaps somebody out there will be in a position to clarify the drone story…and provide some firmer evidence one way or the other…
Best wishes to all,
Nich
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Hla Oo, re Epoch times- — yes and the beginning of Dictator Watch’s manifesto reads :
“Are you for democracy, or dictatorship?
Are you part of the solution, or part of the problem?
Do we – meaning all the life on Earth – do we live, or do we die?”
Makes me want to shout out ‘yeah man!’ and don a tie-dye. I think it’s probably written by someone who has forgotten their own security to be on the cusp of life and death because they won’t eat much more than lentil soup. Same ‘for us, against us’ mentality as Dubya, except from the tangent of ‘everyone not eating lentils is part of the problem!’
I am prepared to believe Ball and Thornton without reading into it much though. I’m not going to staunchly question people who’ve reputations to uphold and spent a lot of time on analysis because I assume they’ve done a lot of questioning.
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I have refrained from commenting on the nuclear issue or the North Korea issue as of yet, but I will say that I feel it is highly irresponsible of academics to continue to refer to unsubstantiated claims as fact.
Yes, the political situation in Myanmar is such that sources are often anonymous, and scholars sometimes rely on informants who for good reason do not want their names mentioned. However, this presents a major challenge to academia, and one that too many scholars do not take on. All these reports of hearsay from random sources should not be referenced. Rather, sources of expertise on the issue of weapons and arms in Myanmar such as Andrew Selth should be consulted. See his excellent paper on the Coco island military base for how rumours and hearsay eventually got accepted as fact, and were later proved completely untrue.
Interestingly, when academics and journalists report on Burma’s supposed nuclear buildup, the end result is exactly what the SPDC hopes to achieve – stimulating a perception of insecurity in the minds of external actors such as ASEAN and Australia, and creating bargaining chips for future negotiations and interactions.
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Well it would be remarkable if the US was not flying drones over Myanmar’s military sites.
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The nuclear club can blackball any aspiring member all they like. If I were in the generals’ shoes, like any Burmese nationalist worth his salt, I would certainly go for nuclear capability.
N Korea is a case in point. You got the nuke, you don’t get bullied, bombed and invaded so easily. In the case of the Burmese junta, it would definitely serve as a good deterrent against meddlesome foreigners interfering in its internal affairs – minding its own business of happily exploiting and oppressing its own people, and nonchalantly violating human rights.
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