The core point here is that this heavy rainfall was predicted from the beginning of the year. And despite PM’s commitment to 2Ps and 2Rs what was has been done? With all this information readily available how come it was not possible to manage the situation with less loss of life, and destruction of agriculture, housing and infrastructure?
And more critically for a government that has got into power on the back of a long-fought struggle for democracy, and accountability – how come the people have not had access to reliable, accurate information?
Why is the government and the state unable to keep the people informed or listen to advice from the people? There is an argument that suggests that FROC has been concerned that the people would not understand, that somehow it is all too complicated, and that the people would panic. This sounds so familiar – along the lines of the people are not capable of making political choices in elections!
There are some tough questions that this government will need to answer for the handling of this crisis.
The root problems run much deeper. But here again the question is about who is framing the problems and solutions? Is Thaksin really going to bring back the water grid as the solution?
It might be fruitful to listen to the people again. The government might be surprised just how informed Thai people are. In a taxi the other night – taxi driver pointed out that years of economic infrastructure development in floodplains, and a complete absence of urban planning legislation – combined with the destruction of watersheds, forests and modification of all natural river systems have set the scene. But this is not an unusual analysis from many Thais.
And finally. Where is the space for public political debate and criticism? Were these not core arguments of the struggle? Are these not fundamental to democracy? Just seen today’s Thai Rath –
р╣Др╕бр╣Ир╣Др╕Фр╣Йр╕Вр╕╣р╣И! р╕Щр╕╢р╕Бр╕кр╕Щр╕╕р╕Бр╣Вр╕Юр╕кр╕Хр╣Мр╕гр╕╣р╕Ы-р╕Вр╣Йр╕нр╕Др╕зр╕▓р╕бр╕Ыр╣Ир╕зр╕Щр╕Щр╣Йр╕│р╕Чр╣Ир╕зр╕б р╣Ар╕Ир╕нр╕Др╕╕р╕Б 20 р╕Ыр╕╡
His Majesty the King has even mentioned that the law needs to be modified. I don’t doubt that the King is a decent person but he hasn’t always done wonderful things for his subjects. He allowed student protesters in the early 70s to be tortured, jailed and killed; students who were protesting the Vietnam War and the militarization of Thailand by supporting the US. At the time even monks were saying leftist students and their supporters should be killed. Also, there is massive corruption in every province in Thailand and the higher one rises in the military, police and politics, the richer one becomes. When was the last elite put into jail for obvious corruption. I’m not arguing that the King should be openly involved in politics because that would destroy the constitutional monarchy. But because there can be little discussion of the history of the King’s reign and the Chakri Dynasty, one runs the risk of ending up in jail and being denied research permits for simply providing an alternative narrative to the King as perfect, helping his people because of his superior morality.
With news of 147 killed in central Burma yesterday due to flash flooding, I wonder what a regional map of rainfall/flooding would look like. And I wonder how much attention Thai media gives its neighbours with regards to an issue all its surrounding states have to come to terms with.
“The court declared the election invalid” using as its excuse that “the position of the voting booths was deemed to be a violation of the voters right to a secret ballot, not because the Democrats (and others) boycotted the election. ”
The Democrats didn’t show up. They rolled over and died and waited for the judicial coup that would put, as all coups do, the Royal Thai Army in power… this time with the Democrat Party acting as its civilian front.
The devil made me do it is good for a laugh for a comedian… it habitually excuses the brutal murder of democracy in Thailand.
My idea is that disasters are never natural, and human activities greatly have influence on what happens, specially if related to management of soil, land use, city and landscape planning. And maybe we better start having a closer look to multipurpose dams that are disseminated in all Southeast Asia. But i just want to pinpoint to some maps I came across. http://www.arcims.tmd.go.th/dailydata/MonthRain.php
Under these current exceptional ‘dire’ circumstances, an exceptional Thai leader is required with urgency. Yingluck has failed miserably to rise to the occasion.
These floods are an obvious example of climate change, fortunately now that Australia has unilaterally legislated a Carbon Tax, worldwide carbon outflows will decrease dramatically by 0.05% and Thailand just like Australia will never be bothered by floods again.
Perhaps a large statue in Bangkok of Julia Gillard surrounded by salivating GS & JPM bankers as she parts the waters of the Chao Praya would be a fitting tribute of gratitude.
This graph from the Thai Meteorological Department shows the variation in percentage of Thailand’s annual rainfall since 1950 compared to the mean between 1971 – 2000.
During six years in the past 30 has the rainfall been higher than 10 percent above average; 1970, 1975, 1988, 1999, 2000, 2008. In only one year (1999) has it been higher than 15 percent.
Andrew’s graphs show that the rainfall 2011 has been much higher than 15 percent above the average. There has not been a single year with as much rain since 1950. This clearly suggests that the cause of the flooding is RAIN and nothing else!
The graph is also showing that rainfall in Thailand was decreasing from 1950 until the 1980s when it started to increase again.
Even though I do indeed consider you a mocking, boorish ex-pat posting glib, self-delusional gibberish on New Mandala in order to not rock the comfortable boat of existence I’m sure you enjoy in Thailand, I am sorry that I do not know “the ethnology or provenance of this ancient piece of hard earnt, practical folk wisdom”
As rhetorical as your wife’s (sidepoint: why was ‘Thai’ in brackets? To qualify your piercing insights?) question might have been, I think I have an answer of sorts.
You see, when I read your reactionary, kowtowing statements here, I wonder if maybe you might draw more sustenance from a Remington than a bowl of Som Tam.
No offence, mind you. Like you said, read the fine print, New Mandala is just one big laugh-in.
REFSA is described as a “think tank aligned to the DAP”. Actually the relationship is much closer. It’s run by a DAP politician . Its alternative budget may or may not be good. But lets not pretend it’s independent.
The Bangladesh Flood Forecasting and Warning Centre is a nice example of what can be achieved for an entire flood-prone country. It also shows that important and up-to-date information can be presented clearly.
The modelling behind this system has been done by DHI who have also had some involvement in flood forecasting in Bangkok (see this). This is a model for rainfall run-off that occurs in the Bangkok area, so the floods from up-country will not be included. However, the example from Bangladesh shows that this can be done in an integrated manner, which is fundamental when trying to control an entire network of rivers and dams.
@john francis lee No.22
Dams do not cause floods. Likewise, dams do not stop floods. It is their operation that is the problem. If the system was integrated, then water could be released from dams in a controlled manner to limit the flood peak downstream. This may not stop flooding, but it would reduce the flood extent. Indeed, if a flood forecasting system can be built for the entire country of Bangladesh, then it should be possible to implement one for Thailand.
@John Smith
“The court declared the election invalid because the position of the voting booths was deemed to be a violation of the voters right to a secret ballot, not because the Democrats (and others) boycotted the election”
Is this true? Where is your source? All I could find from reliable source such as BBC (link below) stated that the K had intervened, saying that Parliament without opposition party is undemocratic. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/4983600.stm
Furthermore, even if the Court really said what you cited, it is still quite a pathetic attempt for you to cite what the Thai Courts said. Do you think the Court which ruled people who speak the truth to 15 years in jail, fires the PM because he is involved in a cooking show, keeps postponing the PAD airport closure etc still has any justice and/or independence left in them? Have you looked at the rating of Global Peace Index this year to see how low the Thai judiciary ranked? Have you read the Wikileaks Cables about the event of 1 April 2006 that the K himself told Thaksin to resign? Do you think the Court’s judgment is completely independent, that if this happens in a western country, no one can successfully get a judicial review to review the Court’s process of delivering this judgment?
It is so pathetic of you to even use the reasoning of the Court in a country where judiciary is recognised (by international organisation) as being blatantly unindependent and political to back up your point of view. Finally, there should not have even been a 2006 election in the first place. Thai Rak Thai party got into office in 2005, and they can lawfully rule the country until end of 2008. They were, unfortunately, intervened by the elites and the PAD. And I guess you know who is behind the PAD, right?
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More on Thailand’s rainfall
More cutting edge political commentary
The core point here is that this heavy rainfall was predicted from the beginning of the year. And despite PM’s commitment to 2Ps and 2Rs what was has been done? With all this information readily available how come it was not possible to manage the situation with less loss of life, and destruction of agriculture, housing and infrastructure?
And more critically for a government that has got into power on the back of a long-fought struggle for democracy, and accountability – how come the people have not had access to reliable, accurate information?
Why is the government and the state unable to keep the people informed or listen to advice from the people? There is an argument that suggests that FROC has been concerned that the people would not understand, that somehow it is all too complicated, and that the people would panic. This sounds so familiar – along the lines of the people are not capable of making political choices in elections!
There are some tough questions that this government will need to answer for the handling of this crisis.
The root problems run much deeper. But here again the question is about who is framing the problems and solutions? Is Thaksin really going to bring back the water grid as the solution?
It might be fruitful to listen to the people again. The government might be surprised just how informed Thai people are. In a taxi the other night – taxi driver pointed out that years of economic infrastructure development in floodplains, and a complete absence of urban planning legislation – combined with the destruction of watersheds, forests and modification of all natural river systems have set the scene. But this is not an unusual analysis from many Thais.
And finally. Where is the space for public political debate and criticism? Were these not core arguments of the struggle? Are these not fundamental to democracy? Just seen today’s Thai Rath –
р╣Др╕бр╣Ир╣Др╕Фр╣Йр╕Вр╕╣р╣И! р╕Щр╕╢р╕Бр╕кр╕Щр╕╕р╕Бр╣Вр╕Юр╕кр╕Хр╣Мр╕гр╕╣р╕Ы-р╕Вр╣Йр╕нр╕Др╕зр╕▓р╕бр╕Ыр╣Ир╕зр╕Щр╕Щр╣Йр╕│р╕Чр╣Ир╕зр╕б р╣Ар╕Ир╕нр╕Др╕╕р╕Б 20 р╕Ыр╕╡
р╕Щр╕▒р╕Бр╕Бр╕Ор╕лр╕бр╕▓р╕вр╕Кр╕╡р╣Йр╣Вр╕Юр╕кр╕Хр╣Мр╕Вр╣Йр╕нр╕Др╕зр╕▓р╕б-р╕гр╕╣р╕Ыр╕ар╕▓р╕Юр╣Ар╕Ыр╣Зр╕Щр╣Ар╕Чр╣Зр╕И р╕Ыр╣Ир╕зр╕Щр╕кр╕Цр╕▓р╕Щр╕Бр╕▓р╕гр╕Ур╣Мр╕Щр╣Йр╕│р╕Чр╣Ир╕зр╕бр╕Ьр╕┤р╕Ф р╕Ю.р╕г.р╕Ъ.р╕Др╕нр╕бр╕п 2550 р╕лр╕ер╕▒р╕Зр╕Щр╣Йр╕│р╕ер╕Ф р╕бр╕╡р╕кр╕┤р╕Чр╕Шр╕┤р╣Мр╣Ар╕Вр╣Йр╕▓р╕Лр╕▒р╕Зр╣Ар╕Х р╕гр╕зр╕бр╣Вр╕Чр╕йр╕Ир╕│р╕Др╕╕р╕Бр╕Бр╕зр╣Ир╕▓ 20 р╕Ыр╕╡…
So it now appears that any criticism – even humorous – will be subject to the law. It’s all so familiar – and so desperately depressing
Tej Bunnag shows the way
His Majesty the King has even mentioned that the law needs to be modified. I don’t doubt that the King is a decent person but he hasn’t always done wonderful things for his subjects. He allowed student protesters in the early 70s to be tortured, jailed and killed; students who were protesting the Vietnam War and the militarization of Thailand by supporting the US. At the time even monks were saying leftist students and their supporters should be killed. Also, there is massive corruption in every province in Thailand and the higher one rises in the military, police and politics, the richer one becomes. When was the last elite put into jail for obvious corruption. I’m not arguing that the King should be openly involved in politics because that would destroy the constitutional monarchy. But because there can be little discussion of the history of the King’s reign and the Chakri Dynasty, one runs the risk of ending up in jail and being denied research permits for simply providing an alternative narrative to the King as perfect, helping his people because of his superior morality.
More on Thailand’s rainfall
With news of 147 killed in central Burma yesterday due to flash flooding, I wonder what a regional map of rainfall/flooding would look like. And I wonder how much attention Thai media gives its neighbours with regards to an issue all its surrounding states have to come to terms with.
Nitirat: monarchy, constitution and democracy
“The court declared the election invalid” using as its excuse that “the position of the voting booths was deemed to be a violation of the voters right to a secret ballot, not because the Democrats (and others) boycotted the election. ”
The Democrats didn’t show up. They rolled over and died and waited for the judicial coup that would put, as all coups do, the Royal Thai Army in power… this time with the Democrat Party acting as its civilian front.
The devil made me do it is good for a laugh for a comedian… it habitually excuses the brutal murder of democracy in Thailand.
How exceptional is Thailand’s rainfall in 2011?
My idea is that disasters are never natural, and human activities greatly have influence on what happens, specially if related to management of soil, land use, city and landscape planning. And maybe we better start having a closer look to multipurpose dams that are disseminated in all Southeast Asia. But i just want to pinpoint to some maps I came across.
http://www.arcims.tmd.go.th/dailydata/MonthRain.php
How exceptional is Thailand’s rainfall in 2011?
Some said because the ‘monkey cheeks’ area that were designed to divert water from the north had been used up for Suvannabhumi Airport.
Some said because the co-incidence with super high tide of this year plus a lot of rain.
Some said the information was not communicated well throughout the management process.
So many info out there. But I like the video you post here ^_^ Thanks.
How exceptional is Thailand’s rainfall in 2011?
Under these current exceptional ‘dire’ circumstances, an exceptional Thai leader is required with urgency. Yingluck has failed miserably to rise to the occasion.
Only Thaksin S. could save us now.
. . . . . .
(just kidding)
Thai flood cause revealed: rain!
These floods are an obvious example of climate change, fortunately now that Australia has unilaterally legislated a Carbon Tax, worldwide carbon outflows will decrease dramatically by 0.05% and Thailand just like Australia will never be bothered by floods again.
Perhaps a large statue in Bangkok of Julia Gillard surrounded by salivating GS & JPM bankers as she parts the waters of the Chao Praya would be a fitting tribute of gratitude.
How exceptional is Thailand’s rainfall in 2011?
Isn’t the 2011 problem the notion that Bangkok is now not prepared for (or willing to accept) a flood such as the 1942 flood?
Thai flood cause revealed: rain!
Thanks Crhis, as you will see in my latest post I have attempted a similiar analysis for a long time-series of Chiang Mai data.
Thai flood cause revealed: rain!
This graph from the Thai Meteorological Department shows the variation in percentage of Thailand’s annual rainfall since 1950 compared to the mean between 1971 – 2000.
http://i1124.photobucket.com/albums/l580/chrislarsson/mean_annual_rainfall_normal.gif
During six years in the past 30 has the rainfall been higher than 10 percent above average; 1970, 1975, 1988, 1999, 2000, 2008. In only one year (1999) has it been higher than 15 percent.
Andrew’s graphs show that the rainfall 2011 has been much higher than 15 percent above the average. There has not been a single year with as much rain since 1950. This clearly suggests that the cause of the flooding is RAIN and nothing else!
The graph is also showing that rainfall in Thailand was decreasing from 1950 until the 1980s when it started to increase again.
Floods, hacks and the Nitirat effect
Nganadeeleg #20: “that’s why it is so surprising that the country still suffers yearly flooding.”
What’s surprising about it? He’s only pointing out that the king knows more about water management than a Thai studies academic.
You could know more about water management than a Thai studies academic and still not know very much.
Nation, Religion, King – Episode 3
Billy Budd:
Even though I do indeed consider you a mocking, boorish ex-pat posting glib, self-delusional gibberish on New Mandala in order to not rock the comfortable boat of existence I’m sure you enjoy in Thailand, I am sorry that I do not know “the ethnology or provenance of this ancient piece of hard earnt, practical folk wisdom”
As rhetorical as your wife’s (sidepoint: why was ‘Thai’ in brackets? To qualify your piercing insights?) question might have been, I think I have an answer of sorts.
You see, when I read your reactionary, kowtowing statements here, I wonder if maybe you might draw more sustenance from a Remington than a bowl of Som Tam.
No offence, mind you. Like you said, read the fine print, New Mandala is just one big laugh-in.
Malaysia’s 2012 Budget
REFSA is described as a “think tank aligned to the DAP”. Actually the relationship is much closer. It’s run by a DAP politician . Its alternative budget may or may not be good. But lets not pretend it’s independent.
Nation, Religion, King – Episode 3
Dundun 31
My (Thai) wife has a set response when I start off on matters political after spending too much time reading New Mandala.
“Do you want to put food in your mouth – or a gun?”
I’d be interested to know if any readers know the ethnology or provenance of this ancient piece of hard earnt, practical folk wisdom.
Floods, hacks and the Nitirat effect
Maybe the newspapers should start blaming themselves for alleged panics and “lies” about the situation?
Thai flood cause revealed: rain!
This might be of interest: http://chamisa.freeshell.org/dam.htm
Thai flood cause revealed: rain!
The Bangladesh Flood Forecasting and Warning Centre is a nice example of what can be achieved for an entire flood-prone country. It also shows that important and up-to-date information can be presented clearly.
The modelling behind this system has been done by DHI who have also had some involvement in flood forecasting in Bangkok (see this). This is a model for rainfall run-off that occurs in the Bangkok area, so the floods from up-country will not be included. However, the example from Bangladesh shows that this can be done in an integrated manner, which is fundamental when trying to control an entire network of rivers and dams.
@john francis lee No.22
Dams do not cause floods. Likewise, dams do not stop floods. It is their operation that is the problem. If the system was integrated, then water could be released from dams in a controlled manner to limit the flood peak downstream. This may not stop flooding, but it would reduce the flood extent. Indeed, if a flood forecasting system can be built for the entire country of Bangladesh, then it should be possible to implement one for Thailand.
Nitirat: monarchy, constitution and democracy
@John Smith
“The court declared the election invalid because the position of the voting booths was deemed to be a violation of the voters right to a secret ballot, not because the Democrats (and others) boycotted the election”
Is this true? Where is your source? All I could find from reliable source such as BBC (link below) stated that the K had intervened, saying that Parliament without opposition party is undemocratic.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/4983600.stm
Furthermore, even if the Court really said what you cited, it is still quite a pathetic attempt for you to cite what the Thai Courts said. Do you think the Court which ruled people who speak the truth to 15 years in jail, fires the PM because he is involved in a cooking show, keeps postponing the PAD airport closure etc still has any justice and/or independence left in them? Have you looked at the rating of Global Peace Index this year to see how low the Thai judiciary ranked? Have you read the Wikileaks Cables about the event of 1 April 2006 that the K himself told Thaksin to resign? Do you think the Court’s judgment is completely independent, that if this happens in a western country, no one can successfully get a judicial review to review the Court’s process of delivering this judgment?
It is so pathetic of you to even use the reasoning of the Court in a country where judiciary is recognised (by international organisation) as being blatantly unindependent and political to back up your point of view. Finally, there should not have even been a 2006 election in the first place. Thai Rak Thai party got into office in 2005, and they can lawfully rule the country until end of 2008. They were, unfortunately, intervened by the elites and the PAD. And I guess you know who is behind the PAD, right?
Starting point: Thailand in 1932
One can just complain about the paywall for academic publications, or one can start to work to change the system. This is one place to begin:
http://www.arl.org/sparc/about/index.shtml
In a similar vein:
http://www.surfsites.nl/open2011en/