Why yes, they could capitalise on this decision which they already have in order to enhance their ‘democratic credentials’. And like you said, grab an opportunity from the crisis to renegotiate with China.
You underestimate these guys at your peril. Not only have they managed to defuse a potentially explosive situation, they got brownie points from the ‘international community’ as well as getting themselves in pole position vis-a-vis the Chinese. Some brinkmanship of sorts you might say vis-a-vis the West too, like they’d done it with the Kokang Incident to the Chinese leading to their subsequent brokering of a new ceasefire deal with the UWSA in order to isolate the KIA.
So long as China fails to see that its long term interests cannot depend on a hated repressive military regime (which it evidently reckons will last for another two decades or more by deceit and coercion), but only on a popular govt of whatever political colour, it is surely investing in a lasting animosity on the part of the entire Burmese nation.
There are Kachin (Jingpo) also indigenous in China, and they too will remember what China did in the renewed conflict raging in northern Burma and on the border compared with the favourable treatment of the Wa who also live on both sides of the border. It would be a mistake if China thinks the Wa will not be attacked once the Burmese generals have succeeded in dealing a deadly blow to the Kachin.
Burmese nationalism is no stranger to Beijing. And the Chinese know they are also being used by the Burmese generals who will not think twice about switching allegiance to the West. After all the Burmese have done it before with the Japanese and the Allies. Short of an outright invasion, it is unthinkable for the Burmese to allow Chinese military presence and defense bases inside Burma.
Admittedly both countries must stay on good terms with each other given the long border and history. But it’s time China seriously did a rethink and took a long view on its Burma policy.
“…The leader of the Australian Green Party, Senator Bob Brown, has invited the Editor of Sarawak Report to Hobart, in order to speak about corruption in Sarawak this week….”
There were suggestions that The Sarawak Report was not a credible source of information. The Greens, who are part of the current Australian government, the Australian, Swiss and German governments, appears to think otherwise.
“…Your correspondence has been referred to the Australian Attorney General’s Department for consideration. Australia takes it responsibility under the UN Convention Against Corruption and the UN Convention Against Transnational Organised Crime seriously and will continue to implement these obligations as a priority…”
Former Prime Minister and current Foreign Minister, Kevin Rudd, responding to the request by The Bruno Manser Fund, the Editor of The Sarawak Report and Baru Bian, the leader of the People Justice Party in Sarawak, to investigate the foreign assets of the Chief Minister of Sarawak in Australia. Australia follows the Swiss and German governments who have initiated similar proceedings.
But if you want to talk about this topic, as a audience I want to listen from ajarn somsak,
Btw can NM interview him with another channel or maybe just the article.
If I were completely cynical (not a bad default position to start from when discussing politics), I’d point out the fighting and the suspension might justify some re-negotiations of deals with China on more favorable terms.
The podcast will be available here, among other places, before too long. It is a long weekend in Canberra so it may not be until Tuesday that the audio will be up online. Thanks for your patience.
Sure the KIA’s actions contributed to an extent as did popular protest. I’d still maintain the more likely principal agency at this juncture must have been an ominous crack appearing over the river in their ranks big enough to override Chinese and their own economic interests.
@ George: Thanks for drawing attention to Laos. But there China is not going to face the kind of challenges it is likely to face in countries like North Korea, Pakistan, and Myanmar.
@ Huw: The claim that China has genuine transit and economic interests in Myanmar is indisputable. But the means through which China is trying to securing those interests are questionable. Ideally, given its clout one would expect China to nudge the junta towards democracy. However, that is not going to happen because of two reasons. First, China cannot press for democracy abroad while ignoring it at home. Second, there indeed is no strong moral and legal justification for political intervention. But the least that is expected of China is that it desists from mega projects in environmentally and ethnically sensitive regions of Myanmar that will harm the locals while strengthening the junta, does not arm the junta, does not use insurgents ethnically close to the Chinese to extract more favourable terms from the junta, does not use transit facilities for military purposes, and does not build defence bases in Myanmar that will bring Myanmar into conflict with its neighbours. In short, while the legal-moral basis for pro-democracy political intervention is flimsy, China should not compound the problems of the people of Myanmar.
Given that the KIA has been stopping Chinese trucks carrying building material from crossing into Burma, and the dam is one of the caus belli, I suspect the conflict might have some influence on the decision. Sure, the government might not care about the Kachins, but the Kachins have a bit of agency too, in the form of bullets, so that has to play some role.
I can’t help but think that the fighting may have inadvertently opened a bit of political space for Thein Sein.
They don’t care about the Kachin or any other group for that matter. Even the gathering momentum of protest among the majority, whilst it seemed to have largely contributed to the govt’s surprise decision of suspending the Myitsone Dam Project, my hunch is the growing dissent inside the Tatmadaw and govt that forced their hand as the political situation continued to deteriorate.
Burmanisation of the region along the Ledo Road by resettling people in new villages with ex-army NCOs as headmen has already been tried. A new regional military command (RMC) is likely being established there at Tanaing to split the Kachin east and west.
The strategic aim is to secure their own and Chinese investments in Kachin State, not least to keep the Asian Highway open between India and China across the northern Burma corridor. They can expect both Indian and Chinese collusion in achieving this at the expense of the Kachin however short-sighted it may seem to the rest of the world regarding long term stability and sustainable development of the region.
David Blake, thanks for the link. Now how is it that Abhisit, a man who has never worked a day of his life in the private sector, has a personal wealth of over 50 million baht? In the early 90’s, he was a part-time state university lecturer without a PhD: he couldn’t have made more than 10,000 baht a month. The current MP salary is about 100,000 baht a month (and that’s much much more than it used to be). Mark’s parents are still alive, so he didn’t inherit his millions. Besides, his daddy retired as university rector, and definitely never made more than an MP (that’s ignoring whatever he made as Suchinda-appointed Minister of Public Health, that is, although we ALL know he didn’t make any under the table money from that position).
Abhisit once gave an interview where he said his favorite food was steak. I guess he could afford it! Although I have no idea if he ever uploaded photos of steak onto his Facebook page… David or Andrew, could you “friend” him and check? 😉 I wonder where he eats it, Rib Room or Madison or Park Avenue… or whether he shows off his “I’m not rich like those evil capitalists”-charm and slums down at Neil’s or Outback or, God forbid, Jeffer. Darn, looks like I’ll have to “friend” him myself and see!
There’s even more insight residing within the assets declarations that Mr. Blake might realize.
The key issue isn’t how much assets elected politicians have (shockingly, they tend to be very rich or come from very rich families). How much their assets increase during their time in power provides much more insight to their motivations and integrity.
So during the two or three years, which politicians, both government and opposition have seen their assets increase most? Would you be shocked if the rich got richer, and they were all Democrats?
The numbers provided are how much each respective politician’s assets have increased since Jan 2008 (when Mr. Clean was appointed Premier).
Ahh, but the Democrats are clean, or have a leader who has a reputation of being clean! They surely upload Facebook photos of plah rah and khao niao to show to the world how humbly they eat, despite their massive increases in wealth. They all loyally crawl along the self-sufficiency path. And besides, number 11 is a Pheu Thai MP.
And of course, the assets declarations don’t mean anything anyway, because any smart politicians hides his or her funds. In which case, why does Mr. Blake bother looking at the assets declarations in the first place?
This is an interesting topic, and one that sparks the imagination about possible scenarios as Myanmar’s political situation evolves rapidly (as compared with the previous two decades).
I wonder what alternative strategy you would propose for the Chinese government. After all, the view from Beijing is that keeping the door open to the junta is the only way to promote any reform in the country.
Perhaps the Chinese government should be enforcing much stricter controls on its FDI however? This might avoid situations such as we have seen recently in Kachin state.
Part of the problem seems to be that censorship in Thailand is arbitrary and capricious and it is hard to tell who’s banning what or how they are actually banning it.
The censors whether they are the MICT or the ISPs seem to be quite dishonest and possibly ashamed about what they’re doing because they don’t tell the truth about it.
I tried vimeo again. As it was loading, it went to “waiting for w3.mict.go.th” and then it finally resolved as “Problem loading page”.
So I don’t know who’s doing it or how but effectively it’s banned for me. Of course, i could use proxy servers but I might find myself in breach of the Computer Crimes Act.
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New Light on Kachin war, again
aiontay ,
Why yes, they could capitalise on this decision which they already have in order to enhance their ‘democratic credentials’. And like you said, grab an opportunity from the crisis to renegotiate with China.
You underestimate these guys at your peril. Not only have they managed to defuse a potentially explosive situation, they got brownie points from the ‘international community’ as well as getting themselves in pole position vis-a-vis the Chinese. Some brinkmanship of sorts you might say vis-a-vis the West too, like they’d done it with the Kokang Incident to the Chinese leading to their subsequent brokering of a new ceasefire deal with the UWSA in order to isolate the KIA.
China’s myopic Myanmar policy
So long as China fails to see that its long term interests cannot depend on a hated repressive military regime (which it evidently reckons will last for another two decades or more by deceit and coercion), but only on a popular govt of whatever political colour, it is surely investing in a lasting animosity on the part of the entire Burmese nation.
There are Kachin (Jingpo) also indigenous in China, and they too will remember what China did in the renewed conflict raging in northern Burma and on the border compared with the favourable treatment of the Wa who also live on both sides of the border. It would be a mistake if China thinks the Wa will not be attacked once the Burmese generals have succeeded in dealing a deadly blow to the Kachin.
Burmese nationalism is no stranger to Beijing. And the Chinese know they are also being used by the Burmese generals who will not think twice about switching allegiance to the West. After all the Burmese have done it before with the Japanese and the Allies. Short of an outright invasion, it is unthinkable for the Burmese to allow Chinese military presence and defense bases inside Burma.
Admittedly both countries must stay on good terms with each other given the long border and history. But it’s time China seriously did a rethink and took a long view on its Burma policy.
Najib still an asset?
“…The leader of the Australian Green Party, Senator Bob Brown, has invited the Editor of Sarawak Report to Hobart, in order to speak about corruption in Sarawak this week….”
There were suggestions that The Sarawak Report was not a credible source of information. The Greens, who are part of the current Australian government, the Australian, Swiss and German governments, appears to think otherwise.
How corrupt can Malaysia get?
Former Prime Minister and current Foreign Minister, Kevin Rudd, responding to the request by The Bruno Manser Fund, the Editor of The Sarawak Report and Baru Bian, the leader of the People Justice Party in Sarawak, to investigate the foreign assets of the Chief Minister of Sarawak in Australia. Australia follows the Swiss and German governments who have initiated similar proceedings.
р╕Кр╕▓р╕Хр╕┤ р╕ир╕▓р╕кр╕Щр╕▓ р╕Юр╕гр╕░р╕бр╕лр╕▓р╕Бр╕йр╕▒р╕Хр╕гр╕┤р╕вр╣М: Nation, Religion, King
But if you want to talk about this topic, as a audience I want to listen from ajarn somsak,
Btw can NM interview him with another channel or maybe just the article.
thank you
New Light on Kachin war, again
Moe Aung,
If I were completely cynical (not a bad default position to start from when discussing politics), I’d point out the fighting and the suspension might justify some re-negotiations of deals with China on more favorable terms.
р╕Кр╕▓р╕Хр╕┤ р╕ир╕▓р╕кр╕Щр╕▓ р╕Юр╕гр╕░р╕бр╕лр╕▓р╕Бр╕йр╕▒р╕Хр╕гр╕┤р╕вр╣М: Nation, Religion, King
Thanks mitrapaper,
No effort to exclude him, or anyone. The reason Ajarn Somsak is not involved in this series is that he was not in Canberra when it was recorded.
Best wishes to all,
Nich
Nation, Religion, King – Episode 1
Thanks David W.,
The podcast will be available here, among other places, before too long. It is a long weekend in Canberra so it may not be until Tuesday that the audio will be up online. Thanks for your patience.
Best wishes to all,
Nich
New Light on Kachin war, again
aiontay,
Sure the KIA’s actions contributed to an extent as did popular protest. I’d still maintain the more likely principal agency at this juncture must have been an ominous crack appearing over the river in their ranks big enough to override Chinese and their own economic interests.
Nation, Religion, King – Episode 1
Can you inform us when the podcast is made available?
Thanks.
China’s myopic Myanmar policy
@ George: Thanks for drawing attention to Laos. But there China is not going to face the kind of challenges it is likely to face in countries like North Korea, Pakistan, and Myanmar.
@ Huw: The claim that China has genuine transit and economic interests in Myanmar is indisputable. But the means through which China is trying to securing those interests are questionable. Ideally, given its clout one would expect China to nudge the junta towards democracy. However, that is not going to happen because of two reasons. First, China cannot press for democracy abroad while ignoring it at home. Second, there indeed is no strong moral and legal justification for political intervention. But the least that is expected of China is that it desists from mega projects in environmentally and ethnically sensitive regions of Myanmar that will harm the locals while strengthening the junta, does not arm the junta, does not use insurgents ethnically close to the Chinese to extract more favourable terms from the junta, does not use transit facilities for military purposes, and does not build defence bases in Myanmar that will bring Myanmar into conflict with its neighbours. In short, while the legal-moral basis for pro-democracy political intervention is flimsy, China should not compound the problems of the people of Myanmar.
China’s myopic Myanmar policy
Considering that the US has done to destroy Thailand’s democracy, I hope China doesn’t follow in their footsteps.
р╕Кр╕▓р╕Хр╕┤ р╕ир╕▓р╕кр╕Щр╕▓ р╕Юр╕гр╕░р╕бр╕лр╕▓р╕Бр╕йр╕▒р╕Хр╕гр╕┤р╕вр╣М: Nation, Religion, King
How can you exclude ajaan Somsak Jeamteerasakul from your panel when you touch on the last element of the three pillars of the Kingdom?
р╕Др╕▒р╕Щр╕лр╕╣ : Nong Ja ahead of Democrats!
[…] “р╕Др╕▒р╕Щр╕лр╕╣ : Nong Ja ahead of Democrats!“, by Andrew Walker, New Mandala, September 14, 2011 […]
New Light on Kachin war, again
Given that the KIA has been stopping Chinese trucks carrying building material from crossing into Burma, and the dam is one of the caus belli, I suspect the conflict might have some influence on the decision. Sure, the government might not care about the Kachins, but the Kachins have a bit of agency too, in the form of bullets, so that has to play some role.
I can’t help but think that the fighting may have inadvertently opened a bit of political space for Thein Sein.
New Light on Kachin war, again
They don’t care about the Kachin or any other group for that matter. Even the gathering momentum of protest among the majority, whilst it seemed to have largely contributed to the govt’s surprise decision of suspending the Myitsone Dam Project, my hunch is the growing dissent inside the Tatmadaw and govt that forced their hand as the political situation continued to deteriorate.
Burmanisation of the region along the Ledo Road by resettling people in new villages with ex-army NCOs as headmen has already been tried. A new regional military command (RMC) is likely being established there at Tanaing to split the Kachin east and west.
The strategic aim is to secure their own and Chinese investments in Kachin State, not least to keep the Asian Highway open between India and China across the northern Burma corridor. They can expect both Indian and Chinese collusion in achieving this at the expense of the Kachin however short-sighted it may seem to the rest of the world regarding long term stability and sustainable development of the region.
Southeast Asia’s Facebook revolution
David Blake, thanks for the link. Now how is it that Abhisit, a man who has never worked a day of his life in the private sector, has a personal wealth of over 50 million baht? In the early 90’s, he was a part-time state university lecturer without a PhD: he couldn’t have made more than 10,000 baht a month. The current MP salary is about 100,000 baht a month (and that’s much much more than it used to be). Mark’s parents are still alive, so he didn’t inherit his millions. Besides, his daddy retired as university rector, and definitely never made more than an MP (that’s ignoring whatever he made as Suchinda-appointed Minister of Public Health, that is, although we ALL know he didn’t make any under the table money from that position).
Abhisit once gave an interview where he said his favorite food was steak. I guess he could afford it! Although I have no idea if he ever uploaded photos of steak onto his Facebook page… David or Andrew, could you “friend” him and check? 😉 I wonder where he eats it, Rib Room or Madison or Park Avenue… or whether he shows off his “I’m not rich like those evil capitalists”-charm and slums down at Neil’s or Outback or, God forbid, Jeffer. Darn, looks like I’ll have to “friend” him myself and see!
Southeast Asia’s Facebook revolution
There’s even more insight residing within the assets declarations that Mr. Blake might realize.
The key issue isn’t how much assets elected politicians have (shockingly, they tend to be very rich or come from very rich families). How much their assets increase during their time in power provides much more insight to their motivations and integrity.
So during the two or three years, which politicians, both government and opposition have seen their assets increase most? Would you be shocked if the rich got richer, and they were all Democrats?
The numbers provided are how much each respective politician’s assets have increased since Jan 2008 (when Mr. Clean was appointed Premier).
1. р╕Др╕╕р╕Ур╕лр╕Нр╕┤р╕З р╕Бр╕▒р╕ер╕вр╕▓ р╣Вр╕кр╕ар╕Ур╕Юр╕Щр╕┤р╕К
р╕Ыр╕гр╕░р╕Кр╕▓р╕Шр╕┤р╕Ыр╕▒р╕Хр╕вр╣М
422,155,214.03
2. р╕Щр╕▓р╕в р╕зр╕┤р╕ер╕▓р╕и р╕Ир╕▒р╕Щр╕Чр╕гр╣Мр╕Юр╕┤р╕Чр╕▒р╕Бр╕йр╣М
р╕Ыр╕гр╕░р╕Кр╕▓р╕Шр╕┤р╕Ыр╕▒р╕Хр╕вр╣М
302,935,294.0
3. р╕Щр╕▓р╕Зр╕кр╕▓р╕з р╣Ар╕Йр╕ер╕┤р╕бр╕ер╕▒р╕Бр╕йр╕Ур╣М р╣Ар╕Бр╣Зр╕Ър╕Чр╕гр╕▒р╕Юр╕вр╣М
р╕Ыр╕гр╕░р╕Кр╕▓р╕Шр╕┤р╕Ыр╕▒р╕Хр╕вр╣М
301,651,393.64
4. р╕Щр╕▓р╕З р╕Ьр╕╕р╕кр╕Фр╕╡ р╕Хр╕▓р╕бр╣Др╕Ч
р╕Ыр╕гр╕░р╕Кр╕▓р╕Шр╕┤р╕Ыр╕▒р╕Хр╕вр╣М
259,458,050.74
5. р╕Щр╕▓р╕в р╣Ар╕Ир╕гр╕┤р╕Н р╕Др╕▒р╕Щр╕Шр╕зр╕Зр╕ир╣М
р╕Ыр╕гр╕░р╕Кр╕▓р╕Шр╕┤р╕Ыр╕▒р╕Хр╕вр╣М
141,615,616.27
6. р╕Щр╕▓р╕в р╕нр╕гр╕гр╕Цр╕зр╕┤р╕Кр╕Кр╣М р╕кр╕╕р╕зр╕гр╕гр╕Ур╕ар╕▒р╕Бр╕Фр╕╡
р╕Ыр╕гр╕░р╕Кр╕▓р╕Шр╕┤р╕Ыр╕▒р╕Хр╕вр╣М
135,118,884.35
7. р╕Щр╕▓р╕в р╕Кр╕▓р╕Нр╕Кр╕▒р╕в р╕нр╕┤р╕кр╕гр╕░р╣Ар╕кр╕Щр╕▓р╕гр╕▒р╕Бр╕йр╣М
р╕Ыр╕гр╕░р╕Кр╕▓р╕Шр╕┤р╕Ыр╕▒р╕Хр╕вр╣М
116,981,845.57
8. р╕Щр╕▓р╕З р╕нр╕▓р╕Щр╕┤р╕Б р╕нр╕▒р╕бр╕гр╕░р╕Щр╕▒р╕Щр╕Чр╕Щр╣М
р╕Ыр╕гр╕░р╕Кр╕▓р╕Шр╕┤р╕Ыр╕▒р╕Хр╕вр╣М
98,700,686.5
9. р╕Щр╕▓р╕в р╕кр╕гр╕зр╕╕р╕Тр╕┤ р╣Ар╕Щр╕╖р╣Ир╕нр╕Зр╕Ир╕│р╕Щр╕Зр╕Др╣М
р╕Ыр╕гр╕░р╕Кр╕▓р╕Шр╕┤р╕Ыр╕▒р╕Хр╕вр╣М
87,629,446.81
10. р╕Щр╕▓р╕в р╕Ур╕▒р╕Пр╕Рр╕Юр╕е р╕Чр╕╡р╕Ыр╕кр╕╕р╕зр╕гр╕гр╕У
р╕Ыр╕гр╕░р╕Кр╕▓р╕Шр╕┤р╕Ыр╕▒р╕Хр╕вр╣М
83,837,878.98
Source:
http://www.tcijthai.com/investigative-story/793
Ahh, but the Democrats are clean, or have a leader who has a reputation of being clean! They surely upload Facebook photos of plah rah and khao niao to show to the world how humbly they eat, despite their massive increases in wealth. They all loyally crawl along the self-sufficiency path. And besides, number 11 is a Pheu Thai MP.
And of course, the assets declarations don’t mean anything anyway, because any smart politicians hides his or her funds. In which case, why does Mr. Blake bother looking at the assets declarations in the first place?
China’s myopic Myanmar policy
Thanks Vikas,
This is an interesting topic, and one that sparks the imagination about possible scenarios as Myanmar’s political situation evolves rapidly (as compared with the previous two decades).
I wonder what alternative strategy you would propose for the Chinese government. After all, the view from Beijing is that keeping the door open to the junta is the only way to promote any reform in the country.
Perhaps the Chinese government should be enforcing much stricter controls on its FDI however? This might avoid situations such as we have seen recently in Kachin state.
р╕Кр╕▓р╕Хр╕┤ р╕ир╕▓р╕кр╕Щр╕▓ р╕Юр╕гр╕░р╕бр╕лр╕▓р╕Бр╕йр╕▒р╕Хр╕гр╕┤р╕вр╣М: Nation, Religion, King
Ricardo,
Part of the problem seems to be that censorship in Thailand is arbitrary and capricious and it is hard to tell who’s banning what or how they are actually banning it.
The censors whether they are the MICT or the ISPs seem to be quite dishonest and possibly ashamed about what they’re doing because they don’t tell the truth about it.
I tried vimeo again. As it was loading, it went to “waiting for w3.mict.go.th” and then it finally resolved as “Problem loading page”.
So I don’t know who’s doing it or how but effectively it’s banned for me. Of course, i could use proxy servers but I might find myself in breach of the Computer Crimes Act.
I use TRUE by the way.