QUOTE I believe that “Bob” does deserve to be listened to,but hope he keeps the pressure on his client Thaksin to provide the truth about past acts of Thai state crimes. UNQUOTE
That is a totally unrealistic expectation. Bob might eventually wake up and realise he’s been used, but his client – like most local pols – is not one for u-turns. Indeed, any u-turn would also be suspicious. There is plenty of current evidence in the world that some people are prepared to take the whole country down with their own sinking fortunes.
If this government is not allowed to rule, then the consequences will be catastrophic and I fear the result will be on the order of a civil war rather than a couple of days of police action. DN #3
If the Prerogative State component of the Dual State is not disabled, there is a danger of the Dual State morphing into its mirror image, Lenin’s idea of Dual Power.
A lawyer’s first obligation is to his own interests, secondly to his firm, then to his client, and finally, if time and opportunity permit, to society as a whole.
Anyone who has ever had to balance an act knows how something can sound and how it really is. And complicating that further, not only how it is but how it is NOW and how it might be LATER.
In short, you still, after all these centuries, can’t judge a book by its cover.
I hope my gut feeling is right.That is Robert (Bob) Amsterdam has joined the growing list of professionals,be they journalists,lawyers or any other parties,that has seen the cruel violence meated out by the so called “third hand” in Thailand and relegated financial reward to concentrate on putting his best efforts into bringing about a fairer society in Thailand.After watching Robert Amsterdams passionate response to the Bangkok Post in Japan,I believe that “Bob” does deserve to be listened to,but hope he keeps the pressure on his client Thaksin to provide the truth about past acts of Thai state crimes.
Malaysia has a “pseudo-democratic political system. The Malaysian Government is an example of what political scientist William Case describes as a “hybrid regime”. The regime seeks to perpetuate its power by manipulating key institutions and undermining civil liberties while holding regular elections. The Barisan Nasional has, as Case calls it, a “menu of manipulation” from which to choose to legitimate and sustain its position as the single dominant party. Barisan Nasional’s ability to use the police and judiciary for partisan political purposes has been critical in its attempt to discredit the Opposition and retain power. ” (http://thesydneyglobalist.org/archives/427)
Government/UMNO control on the media and the not-so-veiled-threat of the Internal Security Act (for Thought Crimes) are part and parcel of an intimidation regime.
Additionally, members of the MCA and MIC are held virtual hostage within Barisan; they fear being completely left out if not in the Ruling Coalition & being starved for federal funding. This is currently happening with oil royalties in Kelanatan, which voted in PAS, the Islamic party.
So choices are there, perhaps, but the corrupt winner-take-all system in Malaysia militates against gradual changes, which implies that any change will be seismic instead of evolutionary.
Personally, I find Malaysian political parties based on race or religion to be part of the divisiveness of Malaysia. I’m not sure why any sane citizen would want to view his country through that prism.
To Killer – you’re not adding to the debate. You’re trying to drown it. Please seek professional help.
Boring? Not fo9r me. As I said above, I was under the impression that we were getting an insider story on Harry and the Australian Embassy and DFAT. That would seem to no longer be the case – my mistake, as I said. Seh Fah now says “I was not a member of the consulate staff and so I was not directly involved, but I did discuss the case with those who were…”. Oh well, maybe Harry will eventually tell us what he knows. Any idea, Andrew, why he hasn’t?
I have never heard of any effort to request IP addresses from the ANU. And I cannot foresee circumstances where the ANU (or any other Australian University for that matter) would provide such information to the Thai government.
@Jesse, why don’t your answer my question? My question was “if there is a potential hefty jail term awaiting those who say they do not love the K, how can you prove that people who say they love the K really mean what they say?”
The answer is you can’t. There might be someone who really says it sincerely, but you can never be sure that EVERYONE who says they love the K says it sincerely. As long as people who display indifference or disrespect can face potential alienation, wrongful dismissal from workplace, or worst, jail terms, there is no way to prove it.
Your argument of “people whom they speak to will not necessarily report them to the police” is true to some extent, but unless that person really trusts you that you really won’t tell the authorities no matter what you say, that person will not tell you what they actually think. Because the law allows anyone to file a charge against anyone.
It is a sad state that we live in Jesse. You might not see it yet, because you have not yet been ‘tainted’ with the information that the Thai elites try to hide from you. But one day, when you have been ‘tainted’ (or enlightened, that’s a better word), then you will realise what kind of country Thailand really is.
PS. You said “For the past 700 years, the transitions had been smooth in most parts and less in some. Why should this one be different ?” – any reasonable person is likely to construe your post that you mean that most Thai successions are smooth when you said “smooth in most parts (suggest ‘majority) and less in some (suggest minority)”.
And if you think this succession is going to be smooth, you really do need to do more research and read more analysis. Because the current political chaos in Thailand now is mostly stemmed from the succession issue. The Royals are heavily divided (as I told you, the Q [planning to be the Regent for Dipangkorn], the CP, and Princess Sirindhorn…all of them are fighting for the throne). The army is on the Q’s side. Many Thais are on Princess Sirindhorn’s side, and Thaksin (who has support of the majority of Thais) are on the CP’s side. In my opinion, this succession is going to be very rough Jesse. And even if the K comes out today and names his successor, it won’t make any difference. What he said will be ignored, if the other ‘two’ sides don’t like the choice which he makes. Mark my word!
For all those readers who immediately diss the various posts on Robert Amsterdam’s website/blog, they should slow down a bit and read the actual posts which are often authored by various highly intelligent and articulate writers and scholars rather than by Robert Amsterdam himself. As such, some of the posts are really quite interesting and well-thought out, whereas others are not so interesting, depending on the actual writer.
Jesse #5. Of course, Western tourists in Thailand have no problems with LM laws and Thai tourists in the US had no problems with the invasions of Panama, Grenada, Afghanistan, Iraq or Libya.
The biggest contribution that A. South has made, and will not be lost to the critics and supporters alike will be:
This longest ongoing Bamar-Karen conflict is but an extreme microcosm in the context of Myanmar historically tragic anecdote.
Conveniently used 0r rather abused repeatedly by the west and military regimes of Myanmar, to justify the direct atrocities as well as 2┬║ sufferings of their respective actions, such as blind sanctions by the west and the 4 cuts strategy by the regime, that hurt the citizenry more, all without any reckoning by neither parties!
A. South is correct, when he boldly stated, for a different future that both side especially the parties that truly represent Karen must begin to participate in engagement with present government instead of enjoying the benefit of being a victim in the west, for this A. south is indeed unjustly vilified,
It is interesting to note that the Yingluck government is planning to redouble the efforts already being made to censor websites in order to protect the Royal Institution and thus national security. The Shinawatras will be delighted to demonstrate their loyalty by prosecuting any farang poster of comments deemed to be LM who is unlucky enough to be traced through his IP address and they certainly won’t care whether he is a red shirt supporter or not.
The editorial in the Nation was hardly an ‘attack on academic freedom.’ Questioning the ethics, research method and conclusions of anyone who publishes is absolutely fair game, although the angry and personal tone was unfortunate.
And, regardless of one’s opinion of its quality, the Asia Times piece was a focused critique of an op-ed – not a person – which had been previously published on the same, non-academic, media website.
Connecting these two unrelated pieces of writing, and claiming a conspiracy to silence a certain category of perspectives and assault academic freedom, is either paranoid or tactical. Shifting (and polarizing) the discussion to the issue of academic freedom vs. censorship – and staking for himself moral high ground by identifying himself with ‘academic freedom’ – is strategic because it allows Mr. South to marginalize critique or disagreement as inherently without merit because they can be reduced to “attacks on academic freedom.” This approach also insulates him from actually having to respond to criticism, engage in debate or defend his own research and perspective on any substantive level.
It’s too bad that the tone of the editorial in the Nation seems to have derailed what might have been an interesting discussion. It would have been more interesting to log on to New Mandala to see an academic response by Mr. South to some of the actual criticisms raised in the article, instead of this.
The evidence overwhelmingly shows that the single, unifying factor that has contributed to early release for LM charges, whether prisoners are Thai, Swiss, Australian or otherwise is an admission of guilt, followed by suitable amounts of bowing and scrapping.
I know that such “veracity” might seem uninteresting and “boring” when there’s anonymous sources and unaccountable and unverifiable “evidence” to chew over.
I would appreciate it if the administrators of New Mandala would clarify ANU’s position on providing IP addresses to the Thai government, and whether such a request has been made, formally or informally, and complied with.
So, also for jonfernquest, aiming at the (yes, paid) messenger trumps dealing with the message…..
Just a detail in passing: “Thaksin’s brother-in-law Priewphan rises up the hierarchy, fast forward one or ten years….”. Fast forward just one year and Priewphan would no longer be National Police Chief – having reached mandatory retirement age. What then?
Finally, an overall observation. How many times over the years have we read that XXX is close to YYY, so XXX is moved/appointed? Until appointments are based solely on merit – or even just “Buggins’ turn” seniority – we will simply go on seeing this game of musical chairs with every change of government. As things are, I can’t blame any government for wanting their “own(ed) man” (rather than someone else’s – in this case their opponent’s) in a politically key position. Given Wichean’s court police pedigree and the fact that Prem very definitely wants him to stay (see http://www.bangkokpost.com/news/local/254079/) and the fact that Abhisit also saw the Police Chief appointment as particularly important (see http://www.bangkokpost.com/news/local/22405/abhisit-loses-police-vote)….. then why all the extravagant hoo-ha now that a PT government may also want to shuffle the stacked deck?
Frankly, given that things are as they are, it would strike me as bizarre bordering on reckless if they didn’t.
What you said could also be apply to our former government (whos side do you think Prayuth is on? yeah)
Moreover, I would like to add on D. N. – 3
That Thaksin didn’t just think of the telecom sector liberalization one night and implement it in the morning, the whole thing was written in the 1997 consitution! exactly demand the government to liberate telecom sector, which Thaksin did. The whole reason why the middle-class were piss about it because they didn’t know about the constitution and the media just turn a blind eye on just because they can have one more topic the bash Thaksin.
“…damage done to democracy …. done by the Thai Rak Thai Party….Thaksin had systematically undermined virtually all of the checks and balances of a democratic system, leaving the army as the last unbalanced check…”
Spot on, Seh Fah.
Ahistorical client-biased arguments is what you would expect from a lawyer for-hire representing their client.
It is almost as if the second Thai Rak Thai state-within-a-state drama is resuming where it left off in 2006.
Chuvit exposes gambling dens, Chalerm vows to close them all down, Wichean loses his job as head of police, Thaksin’s brother-in-law Priewphan rises up the hierarchy, fast forward one or ten years and police are still running gambling dens as they always have (Chang Noi, Jungle Book, The police and the Golden Pig, 55).
It really is worth reviewing the **historical facts** again of how the military and police became extensions of Thaksin’s political machine, as this appears to be happening again slowly as we speak (See chapters Thaksin and the Military and Thaksin and the Police in McCargo and Ukrist Pathmanond, The Thaksination of Thailand, 2005, 225-233, 121-165).
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Amsterdam on Thailand’s dual state
QUOTE I believe that “Bob” does deserve to be listened to,but hope he keeps the pressure on his client Thaksin to provide the truth about past acts of Thai state crimes. UNQUOTE
That is a totally unrealistic expectation. Bob might eventually wake up and realise he’s been used, but his client – like most local pols – is not one for u-turns. Indeed, any u-turn would also be suspicious. There is plenty of current evidence in the world that some people are prepared to take the whole country down with their own sinking fortunes.
Amsterdam on Thailand’s dual state
If this government is not allowed to rule, then the consequences will be catastrophic and I fear the result will be on the order of a civil war rather than a couple of days of police action. DN #3
If the Prerogative State component of the Dual State is not disabled, there is a danger of the Dual State morphing into its mirror image, Lenin’s idea of Dual Power.
Amsterdam on Thailand’s dual state
A lawyer’s first obligation is to his own interests, secondly to his firm, then to his client, and finally, if time and opportunity permit, to society as a whole.
Anyone who has ever had to balance an act knows how something can sound and how it really is. And complicating that further, not only how it is but how it is NOW and how it might be LATER.
In short, you still, after all these centuries, can’t judge a book by its cover.
Amsterdam on Thailand’s dual state
I hope my gut feeling is right.That is Robert (Bob) Amsterdam has joined the growing list of professionals,be they journalists,lawyers or any other parties,that has seen the cruel violence meated out by the so called “third hand” in Thailand and relegated financial reward to concentrate on putting his best efforts into bringing about a fairer society in Thailand.After watching Robert Amsterdams passionate response to the Bangkok Post in Japan,I believe that “Bob” does deserve to be listened to,but hope he keeps the pressure on his client Thaksin to provide the truth about past acts of Thai state crimes.
Malaysia – a simple institutional analysis
Hi Greg (responding to #18)
Malaysia has a “pseudo-democratic political system. The Malaysian Government is an example of what political scientist William Case describes as a “hybrid regime”. The regime seeks to perpetuate its power by manipulating key institutions and undermining civil liberties while holding regular elections. The Barisan Nasional has, as Case calls it, a “menu of manipulation” from which to choose to legitimate and sustain its position as the single dominant party. Barisan Nasional’s ability to use the police and judiciary for partisan political purposes has been critical in its attempt to discredit the Opposition and retain power. ” (http://thesydneyglobalist.org/archives/427)
Government/UMNO control on the media and the not-so-veiled-threat of the Internal Security Act (for Thought Crimes) are part and parcel of an intimidation regime.
Additionally, members of the MCA and MIC are held virtual hostage within Barisan; they fear being completely left out if not in the Ruling Coalition & being starved for federal funding. This is currently happening with oil royalties in Kelanatan, which voted in PAS, the Islamic party.
So choices are there, perhaps, but the corrupt winner-take-all system in Malaysia militates against gradual changes, which implies that any change will be seismic instead of evolutionary.
Personally, I find Malaysian political parties based on race or religion to be part of the divisiveness of Malaysia. I’m not sure why any sane citizen would want to view his country through that prism.
To Killer – you’re not adding to the debate. You’re trying to drown it. Please seek professional help.
FACT’s plea for Joe Gordon
Boring? Not fo9r me. As I said above, I was under the impression that we were getting an insider story on Harry and the Australian Embassy and DFAT. That would seem to no longer be the case – my mistake, as I said. Seh Fah now says “I was not a member of the consulate staff and so I was not directly involved, but I did discuss the case with those who were…”. Oh well, maybe Harry will eventually tell us what he knows. Any idea, Andrew, why he hasn’t?
US legal action on lese majeste
Thanks Simon, and others,
I have never heard of any effort to request IP addresses from the ANU. And I cannot foresee circumstances where the ANU (or any other Australian University for that matter) would provide such information to the Thai government.
Best wishes to all,
Nich
Thailand’s succession planning
@Jesse, why don’t your answer my question? My question was “if there is a potential hefty jail term awaiting those who say they do not love the K, how can you prove that people who say they love the K really mean what they say?”
The answer is you can’t. There might be someone who really says it sincerely, but you can never be sure that EVERYONE who says they love the K says it sincerely. As long as people who display indifference or disrespect can face potential alienation, wrongful dismissal from workplace, or worst, jail terms, there is no way to prove it.
Your argument of “people whom they speak to will not necessarily report them to the police” is true to some extent, but unless that person really trusts you that you really won’t tell the authorities no matter what you say, that person will not tell you what they actually think. Because the law allows anyone to file a charge against anyone.
It is a sad state that we live in Jesse. You might not see it yet, because you have not yet been ‘tainted’ with the information that the Thai elites try to hide from you. But one day, when you have been ‘tainted’ (or enlightened, that’s a better word), then you will realise what kind of country Thailand really is.
PS. You said “For the past 700 years, the transitions had been smooth in most parts and less in some. Why should this one be different ?” – any reasonable person is likely to construe your post that you mean that most Thai successions are smooth when you said “smooth in most parts (suggest ‘majority) and less in some (suggest minority)”.
And if you think this succession is going to be smooth, you really do need to do more research and read more analysis. Because the current political chaos in Thailand now is mostly stemmed from the succession issue. The Royals are heavily divided (as I told you, the Q [planning to be the Regent for Dipangkorn], the CP, and Princess Sirindhorn…all of them are fighting for the throne). The army is on the Q’s side. Many Thais are on Princess Sirindhorn’s side, and Thaksin (who has support of the majority of Thais) are on the CP’s side. In my opinion, this succession is going to be very rough Jesse. And even if the K comes out today and names his successor, it won’t make any difference. What he said will be ignored, if the other ‘two’ sides don’t like the choice which he makes. Mark my word!
Amsterdam on Thailand’s dual state
For all those readers who immediately diss the various posts on Robert Amsterdam’s website/blog, they should slow down a bit and read the actual posts which are often authored by various highly intelligent and articulate writers and scholars rather than by Robert Amsterdam himself. As such, some of the posts are really quite interesting and well-thought out, whereas others are not so interesting, depending on the actual writer.
Thailand’s succession planning
Jesse #5. Of course, Western tourists in Thailand have no problems with LM laws and Thai tourists in the US had no problems with the invasions of Panama, Grenada, Afghanistan, Iraq or Libya.
Threats to academic freedom
The biggest contribution that A. South has made, and will not be lost to the critics and supporters alike will be:
This longest ongoing Bamar-Karen conflict is but an extreme microcosm in the context of Myanmar historically tragic anecdote.
Conveniently used 0r rather abused repeatedly by the west and military regimes of Myanmar, to justify the direct atrocities as well as 2┬║ sufferings of their respective actions, such as blind sanctions by the west and the 4 cuts strategy by the regime, that hurt the citizenry more, all without any reckoning by neither parties!
A. South is correct, when he boldly stated, for a different future that both side especially the parties that truly represent Karen must begin to participate in engagement with present government instead of enjoying the benefit of being a victim in the west, for this A. south is indeed unjustly vilified,
US legal action on lese majeste
It is interesting to note that the Yingluck government is planning to redouble the efforts already being made to censor websites in order to protect the Royal Institution and thus national security. The Shinawatras will be delighted to demonstrate their loyalty by prosecuting any farang poster of comments deemed to be LM who is unlucky enough to be traced through his IP address and they certainly won’t care whether he is a red shirt supporter or not.
Threats to academic freedom
The editorial in the Nation was hardly an ‘attack on academic freedom.’ Questioning the ethics, research method and conclusions of anyone who publishes is absolutely fair game, although the angry and personal tone was unfortunate.
And, regardless of one’s opinion of its quality, the Asia Times piece was a focused critique of an op-ed – not a person – which had been previously published on the same, non-academic, media website.
Connecting these two unrelated pieces of writing, and claiming a conspiracy to silence a certain category of perspectives and assault academic freedom, is either paranoid or tactical. Shifting (and polarizing) the discussion to the issue of academic freedom vs. censorship – and staking for himself moral high ground by identifying himself with ‘academic freedom’ – is strategic because it allows Mr. South to marginalize critique or disagreement as inherently without merit because they can be reduced to “attacks on academic freedom.” This approach also insulates him from actually having to respond to criticism, engage in debate or defend his own research and perspective on any substantive level.
It’s too bad that the tone of the editorial in the Nation seems to have derailed what might have been an interesting discussion. It would have been more interesting to log on to New Mandala to see an academic response by Mr. South to some of the actual criticisms raised in the article, instead of this.
FACT’s plea for Joe Gordon
Andrew Walker
The evidence overwhelmingly shows that the single, unifying factor that has contributed to early release for LM charges, whether prisoners are Thai, Swiss, Australian or otherwise is an admission of guilt, followed by suitable amounts of bowing and scrapping.
I know that such “veracity” might seem uninteresting and “boring” when there’s anonymous sources and unaccountable and unverifiable “evidence” to chew over.
Amsterdam on Thailand’s dual state
Possibly Amsterdam’s best article yet. If he can tone down the rabidity a bit more he could even become convincing.
Not bad for a paid PR hack.
US legal action on lese majeste
I would appreciate it if the administrators of New Mandala would clarify ANU’s position on providing IP addresses to the Thai government, and whether such a request has been made, formally or informally, and complied with.
Amsterdam on Thailand’s dual state
c24
So, also for jonfernquest, aiming at the (yes, paid) messenger trumps dealing with the message…..
Just a detail in passing: “Thaksin’s brother-in-law Priewphan rises up the hierarchy, fast forward one or ten years….”. Fast forward just one year and Priewphan would no longer be National Police Chief – having reached mandatory retirement age. What then?
Finally, an overall observation. How many times over the years have we read that XXX is close to YYY, so XXX is moved/appointed? Until appointments are based solely on merit – or even just “Buggins’ turn” seniority – we will simply go on seeing this game of musical chairs with every change of government. As things are, I can’t blame any government for wanting their “own(ed) man” (rather than someone else’s – in this case their opponent’s) in a politically key position. Given Wichean’s court police pedigree and the fact that Prem very definitely wants him to stay (see http://www.bangkokpost.com/news/local/254079/) and the fact that Abhisit also saw the Police Chief appointment as particularly important (see http://www.bangkokpost.com/news/local/22405/abhisit-loses-police-vote)….. then why all the extravagant hoo-ha now that a PT government may also want to shuffle the stacked deck?
Frankly, given that things are as they are, it would strike me as bizarre bordering on reckless if they didn’t.
Amsterdam on Thailand’s dual state
Might be worth re-familiarizing ourselves with the Thaksin-era government, which was as ‘prerogative’ as it was ‘normative’ — http://www.amazon.com/Thaksin-Business-Politics-Pasuk-Phongpaichit/dp/9749575555 (and for a fair review, http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Southeast_Asia/FH21Ae05.html).
F.F.
Amsterdam on Thailand’s dual state
jonfernquest – 24
What you said could also be apply to our former government (whos side do you think Prayuth is on? yeah)
Moreover, I would like to add on D. N. – 3
That Thaksin didn’t just think of the telecom sector liberalization one night and implement it in the morning, the whole thing was written in the 1997 consitution! exactly demand the government to liberate telecom sector, which Thaksin did. The whole reason why the middle-class were piss about it because they didn’t know about the constitution and the media just turn a blind eye on just because they can have one more topic the bash Thaksin.
Amsterdam on Thailand’s dual state
Seh Fah:
“…damage done to democracy …. done by the Thai Rak Thai Party….Thaksin had systematically undermined virtually all of the checks and balances of a democratic system, leaving the army as the last unbalanced check…”
Spot on, Seh Fah.
Ahistorical client-biased arguments is what you would expect from a lawyer for-hire representing their client.
It is almost as if the second Thai Rak Thai state-within-a-state drama is resuming where it left off in 2006.
Chuvit exposes gambling dens, Chalerm vows to close them all down, Wichean loses his job as head of police, Thaksin’s brother-in-law Priewphan rises up the hierarchy, fast forward one or ten years and police are still running gambling dens as they always have (Chang Noi, Jungle Book, The police and the Golden Pig, 55).
It really is worth reviewing the **historical facts** again of how the military and police became extensions of Thaksin’s political machine, as this appears to be happening again slowly as we speak (See chapters Thaksin and the Military and Thaksin and the Police in McCargo and Ukrist Pathmanond, The Thaksination of Thailand, 2005, 225-233, 121-165).