#18: That is precisely the reason that people who otherwise feel indebted to keep quiet eventually open their mouths – because their eyes opened first.
The illusion vs. reality is profound, intensely shocking and overwhelming in scope and depth re. its impact on Thai culture, society, politics and general character of spirit.
Why else use military and police to enforce that which should never be enforced?
I must admit, after reading the comments here, I became aware of the effects of continuous media bombardment; I mean the people of Thailand, which includes myself, are painted this picture by meta-narrations that is so subtle, and for a phase even felt sublime, I remember of instances that I felt protected or looked after for by something great, but at the moment you begin questioning it just a bit fear is somehow invoked and you find yourself trying to rationalize it connecting it with whatever is thrown at you despite knowing the contextual irrelevance. The realization that truely “great” things are not supposed to become scary with just a bit of questioning, sometime comes with the feeling of vulnerability. Thank you for comments.
About 23:00 BKK Time, VoiceTV reported that the EC still cannot endorse Yingluck as Pheu Thai party-list MP, along with 12 other MP’s who are from UDD.
Abhisit and other MP’s are not endorse either.
So my question is whether EC wants to start another crisis ?
Struat: Agree on the point. However, while there is an upcoming of a strong government, but nothing about the quality of the people was mentioned. All they offer are popularist policies (300 Bht for standard pay/day, credit card for farmers/ what for? more easy money to spend,and the biggest one is on cell phones), which means they can gain more packs of royal grassroot people. I believe the changes is there, but shouldn’t be too optimistic. A strong belive in spirits, exocisms (don’ t get them wrong) among the rulral people are still there, that while every mid and 1st of each month you will see pack of people huming around an aged trees (the older the better, they believe they were haunted by ghosts) and determinely rub their bark just to get a 3 digits number for their underground lotery or once a while when they get some deformed lifestock, it will become their holy spirit to pray for.
These thinkings are nice when percieved as as a cultural threat given from anchestors, but is it a civilized or the third world’s mindset? Then we cannot be too optimistic or too naive with the policians here, they possess a good knowlege on how to orgainze/ manipulate the people.
Even, lots of aged people joined the rallies in Ratchaprasong because they were told to do so (sorry not any reason like political reform) and some lost their business from the failure of the OTOP program and just want their money back. Some of them (old ladies) were pushed to leave by the squad just tightly grasped their chairs and rufused to go, (while all the rally leaders were all disappeared into thin air), just for the money they expected to get for being there (showed on the local evening news on the day of riot). They are real poor, ignorant and uneducated people.
It’s quite difficult and complicated to figure it out from western world stand point actually.
Yeah, I noticed that Thaksin said that. Still, it’s the stated policy of the Prime Minister elect and the Pheu Thai party for THB300 nationwide immediately. This is what they campaigned on. This is one of the things people voted for and this is what’s being talked of here pretty much 24/7 – the Federation of Thai Industries is in high dudgeon!
With the THB15,000 for all graduates with Bachelor degrees as starting salary – does this apply to civil servants? If so, this is going to wreak havok over at the Office of the Civil Service Commission. It’s sort of damned if it does and damned if it doesn’t really. If it does, then all those civil servants C5 or below are going to need substantial pay rises just so the juniors aren’t above them in pay rate when they first walk on the job. Can’t have that. Certainly not in the civil service! If it doesn’t apply to civil servants, then good luck getting ANY new civil servants to implement the policies with which the government was elected. Pretty hard getting any teachers too.
One other part of the Election Platform I don’t quite understand – the debt forgiveness program for all teachers who owe up to THB500,000. Do they mean only those who have borrowed from the government or from anyone whatsoever?
Anyway, it’s going to be fun as all this is worked out as I’m sure it will be to everyone’s satisfaction.
Sounds like a very nice get together, although not religious per se, I find Buddhism in its simplest form (ie without being guided by a structured bureaucracy) interesting as it offers a way for personal development and enlightenment. Personal development opposed of course to most mainstream religions that are about money, power and/or control.
I got info from Thaksin interview, it turns out Thaksin and Somkiet were giving two different things. I’m aware of what Somkiet said but I think what Thaksin said is much more realistic but I still think they should do this slowly not an instant jump and the whole thing is just a marketing scheme
Nah, the policy is for THB300 immediate in all provinces. Well, according the statements today of Labour Ministry permanent secretary Somkiat Chayasriwong it’s for all Provinces. I believe this was the understanding of those who voted also.
Patrick Jory(#11)-I’m not at all sure the cables support the idea that the US Embassy had a very strong bias against Thaksin: the ambassador’s cited ‘advice’ (pretty practical in retrospect, see footnote* below) is basically the same as what people such as Chaturon were urging, and there’s no indication it was given in anger. One also notes that they show little alarm in early 2006 that Thaksin’s position was in jeopardy. And reflecting a tendency to take most statements from the people they talk to at face value, the embassy repeatedly tells Washington in its confidential cables that a coup is not expected. It seems to me that the embassy’s misplaced confidence reflected conventional wisdom and was not very different from that of the Thaksin camp – both were caught out
At the risk of quoting selectively, this is one example, from 28 July 2006, by Charge d’Affaires Alex A. Arvizu:
06BANGKOK4610 MORE ON MILITARY RESHUFFLE — THAI ARMY PUTS APOLITICAL OFFICERS IN CHARGE OF KEY UNITS
…
COMMENT: WHAT WOULD CAUSE THE MILITARY TO INTERVENE?
8. (C) “What would cause the Army to step in?” When asking this question, Embassy officers have emphasized the importance of the Army staying out of politics and allowing the democratic process to play out. We have not hesitated to point out how Army intervention could damage Thailand’s relationship with the United States. Uniformly, senior officers from Sonthi on down have told us that the RTA has come a long way since 1991 and would be extremely unlikely to stage a coup. However, one RTSC general officer — a very reliable U.S. contact whose professional sense of duty has impressed us over the years — told us in a moment of candor that if Thaksin made a move that was interpreted as disloyal to the King, then the Army might have little choice but to intervene by removing Thaksin from the political scene, and quickly call for a new government to be appointed or elected.
Our contact stressed that he viewed such a scenario as remote, especially in light of recent developments, i.e. the royal decree announcing a general election on October 15, and the guilty verdict returned by the Criminal Court against the three members of the Election Commission, which many interpret as a necessary step toward increasing the chances of a fair election.
(Also of interest in this regard: 06BANGKOK5423 of 5 Sep 2006
AMBASSADOR’S SEPTEMBER 1 MEETING WITH PRIVY COUNCILOR SURAYUD CHULANONT )
* (Footnote)
06BANGKOK5811 of 20 Sep 2006
THAILAND: MY MEETING WITH GENERAL SONTHI
4. (C) Sonthi responded by saying the military had truly acted in order to improve Thai democracy, not destroy it. The prevailing situation had become untenable. Had Thaksin only been willing to announce publicly that he would not return as Prime Minister, this action could have been avoided. But his unwillingness to do publicly what he had repeatedly told many privately had led people to fear that his true intention was to seek a renewed mandate and return
to power. Thus the military had acted.
It tends to suggest that a delegitimizing role would also have been possible – I wonder which role would have had the better long term effect on the institution’s reputation?
How much did the US Embassy know beforehand about the September 2006 coup?
One of the many interesting things about the Wikileaks cables (thanks to Andrew MacGregor Marshall) is that they reveal a very strong bias against Thaksin on the part of the Embassy, and an equally strong pro-monarchy stance. In fact, the Embassy’s position is not greatly dissimilar from the “elitist” Bangkok view.
In one cable dated 6 July 2006, the Ambassador actually “urged [Thaksin] again to consider announcing soon that he would not be back as prime minister, to spare the country from the continuing political tension. …”
It’s quite extraordinary that the elected leader of an extremely popular political party should be advised in this way by a US Ambassador.
But there are a number of other cables which suggest that the Embassy MAY have known more about the impending coup than we might have thought, and at relatively early stage.
In cable 06BANGKOK1214, “PRIVY COUNCILLOR/FORMER ARMY COMMANDER ON STATE OF PLAY”, dated 28 February 2006, it is reported that in a meeting with Privy Councillor Surayudh Julanond, Surayudh told the Ambassador:
“…The military also doesn\’t want to intervene on either side, according to Surayud. He admitted that there had been \”some talk\” within the military about the option of a \”one-day\” coup which would turn power over to the King. (Some of this has been picked up by the press.) But Surayud said he had spoken directly to Army Commander Sonthi (a Surayud protege) and he absolutely did not support such a move. Surayud noted with discomfort that his name has been mentioned as a possible interim Prime Minister in case of a coup, and said that he was keeping a very low profile in order to avoid fueling such speculation… ”
Then, only two days later, in cable 06BANGKOK1302 “THE THAI ARMY COMES TO DINNER” dated 2nd March 2006, at a dinner with Army Commander Sondhi Bunyaratkalin hosted by the Ambassador, it was reported:
“…Sonthi is a protege of retired Army Commander and current Privy Councilor General Surayud Chulanont. Sonthi told the Ambassador that Surayud is uncomfortable with press speculation that he might be appointed as an interim Prime Minister should Thaksin step down. Nonetheless, Sonthi was *** keenly interested *** in hearing about the Ambassador\’s February 28 meeting with Surayud and asked whether the Ambassador\’s impression of Surayud corresponded with his own (reftel)…” (my emphasis)
If one is going to carry out a coup, one needs to know the view of your closest ally. There are two ways of reading these cables. One, take them at face value; or, read from them that a signal was being sent to the Embassy about how it would react to a coup.
The cables show that the Ambassador kept in regular contact with Surayudh, meeting him again on 6 April (in which Surayudh was referred to, bizarrely, as “one of the most respected political figures in the country”), 18 May, and again on 1 September, just over two weeks before the coup.
Then, on 28 September, nine days after the coup, there is a cable which shows astonishing support on the part of the Embassy for Surayudh. The Ambassador called on Surayudh at the Privy Council Chambers: “…Turning to the current state of affairs, Surayud explained that on the evening of September 27, General Sonthi Boonyaratklin had come to his residence and asked him to be the interim Prime Minister. Surayud responded that he didn\’t really want the post, but if the King approved it, he obviously would take the position. I responded to this by saying that \”you and I both know what will happen;\” Surayud will take the job.”
“…I told Surayud that he is the right person for the job in this difficult situation […] Surayud is a well-respected, non-partisan figure with a sterling track record as a professional military officer. […] The CDRM has obviously reached out to Surayud because he is one of the few individuals with the credentials and prestige to unite the country in this troubled period. Under the current circumstances, Surayud is arguably the best person to head the interim civilian government. He is trusted by the palace and the military, and enjoys widespread respect across a broad spectrum of Thai citizens because of his integrity and previous service. His appointment would be a very positive development for Thailand internally, as well as for Thai-U.S. relations, and we should welcome it if and when it is announced”.
There is no evidence in the Wikileaks cables that I can find that the Embassy knew about or approved of the coup beforehand. But there is clear evidence that the Embassy was in regular contact with Surayudh, that it was aware of the possibility of a coup and Surayudh’s appointment, and that subsequent to the coup it had a very positive view of Suraydh’s appointment because, among other reasons, “he is trusted by the palace and the military” and it would be “very positive” for Thai-US relations.
As long as Thailand’s archaic and revered ‘patronage system’ exists in the kingdom, real democracy will never arrive. Thai elites and all patrons right down the class scale have used the ‘patronage system’ not only to act with impunity but to enrich themselves so as to enforce their influence and control.
Sooner or later the broader population will acknowledge their folly by allowing these pseudo masters to control their democratic freedom.
The only question is when???
I posted an oped on Asian Correspondent entitled “Abhisit’s grace?” in the days just after the election when several commentators were gushing over the manner of Abhisit’s resignation.
My piece was then piously dismissed by many of the same commentators who seemed to studiously forget what had brought and then sustained Abhisit in power.
As Ralph Kramden explained in the very first comment on this thread this is just how Thailand’s Democrat Party roll. Put very simply they can’t take power with the consent of the Thai people.
The 300 baht policy was meant for BKK and surrounding area only, I have to admit the first time I heard about the policy made me felt like this is more of a marketing scheme. I’m not expecting too much on this.
However, I still think 15,000 is not that far fetch. Skilled labor should not be cheap but it should also be worth to invest. Thailand need to promote business that required high skill, as long as the money invest into those skilled labor yield a good return. Same with why silicon valley never been move to somewhere in India because its worth the money to invest there.
Last, its not “computer pad” its ” tablet” and its noting compare to computer capability wise. If you follow the news, India and S. Korea already plan to introduce tablet into their education system, the plus with tablet is that the government will save a lot of on books in the future and students dont have to carry 7 text books to school everyday.
All in all, I dont think this government will last more than 6 months (assumed they dont get disbanded).
“what they have not grasped and observed elsewhere us that capitalism embedded in a democratic structure can still provide them the wealth and power they crave.”
That’s the whole point, it can’t or they would already have embraced it. The Thai survives not on wealth but on self-esteem. On perceived status. Substance is meaningless in Thailand, appearance (however dishonestly projected) is everything. Thai bigwigs are used to deference which they just don’t get elsewhere than Thailand; this is the reason there are so very few international Thai organisations. Also, the Thai bigwig did not get rich using the capitalist concepts of open competition and fair trade, they got rich by personal relationships and corrupt practices, just like many places in the west but magnified far beyond what would be tolerated in the west.
Capitalism as we understand it in the west is the nemesis of the Thai elite, it is precisely because they understand they cannot survive in an openly competitive market that they resist the move towards democracy. They are not about to let some unwashed peasant from Isaan tell them how to be fair, equitable and democratic when they’ve done so very well being precisely the opposite of that.
Vichai: easy to see why Barry has thrown you into confusion. Whatever you do, don’t read the Bangkok Post’s Sunday feature article on the apparent hiring people (probably PT supporters) to attend what were D*mo*ra* Party rallies in Bangkok.
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The army and the god king
#18: That is precisely the reason that people who otherwise feel indebted to keep quiet eventually open their mouths – because their eyes opened first.
The illusion vs. reality is profound, intensely shocking and overwhelming in scope and depth re. its impact on Thai culture, society, politics and general character of spirit.
Why else use military and police to enforce that which should never be enforced?
The army and the god king
Peter (8)
Most cults do indeed come to an end. Those that don’t, become religions. As the king fades, Thais are straddling both worlds.
The army and the god king
I must admit, after reading the comments here, I became aware of the effects of continuous media bombardment; I mean the people of Thailand, which includes myself, are painted this picture by meta-narrations that is so subtle, and for a phase even felt sublime, I remember of instances that I felt protected or looked after for by something great, but at the moment you begin questioning it just a bit fear is somehow invoked and you find yourself trying to rationalize it connecting it with whatever is thrown at you despite knowing the contextual irrelevance. The realization that truely “great” things are not supposed to become scary with just a bit of questioning, sometime comes with the feeling of vulnerability. Thank you for comments.
Analysis of Thailand’s prospects
About 23:00 BKK Time, VoiceTV reported that the EC still cannot endorse Yingluck as Pheu Thai party-list MP, along with 12 other MP’s who are from UDD.
Abhisit and other MP’s are not endorse either.
So my question is whether EC wants to start another crisis ?
http://news.voicetv.co.th/thailand/14163.html
Further pls check this link too:
http://www.facebook.com/UDDInternationalNews/posts/242374909106077
Thailand’s corruption record
Struat: Agree on the point. However, while there is an upcoming of a strong government, but nothing about the quality of the people was mentioned. All they offer are popularist policies (300 Bht for standard pay/day, credit card for farmers/ what for? more easy money to spend,and the biggest one is on cell phones), which means they can gain more packs of royal grassroot people. I believe the changes is there, but shouldn’t be too optimistic. A strong belive in spirits, exocisms (don’ t get them wrong) among the rulral people are still there, that while every mid and 1st of each month you will see pack of people huming around an aged trees (the older the better, they believe they were haunted by ghosts) and determinely rub their bark just to get a 3 digits number for their underground lotery or once a while when they get some deformed lifestock, it will become their holy spirit to pray for.
These thinkings are nice when percieved as as a cultural threat given from anchestors, but is it a civilized or the third world’s mindset? Then we cannot be too optimistic or too naive with the policians here, they possess a good knowlege on how to orgainze/ manipulate the people.
Even, lots of aged people joined the rallies in Ratchaprasong because they were told to do so (sorry not any reason like political reform) and some lost their business from the failure of the OTOP program and just want their money back. Some of them (old ladies) were pushed to leave by the squad just tightly grasped their chairs and rufused to go, (while all the rally leaders were all disappeared into thin air), just for the money they expected to get for being there (showed on the local evening news on the day of riot). They are real poor, ignorant and uneducated people.
It’s quite difficult and complicated to figure it out from western world stand point actually.
Analysis of Thailand’s prospects
Yeah, I noticed that Thaksin said that. Still, it’s the stated policy of the Prime Minister elect and the Pheu Thai party for THB300 nationwide immediately. This is what they campaigned on. This is one of the things people voted for and this is what’s being talked of here pretty much 24/7 – the Federation of Thai Industries is in high dudgeon!
With the THB15,000 for all graduates with Bachelor degrees as starting salary – does this apply to civil servants? If so, this is going to wreak havok over at the Office of the Civil Service Commission. It’s sort of damned if it does and damned if it doesn’t really. If it does, then all those civil servants C5 or below are going to need substantial pay rises just so the juniors aren’t above them in pay rate when they first walk on the job. Can’t have that. Certainly not in the civil service! If it doesn’t apply to civil servants, then good luck getting ANY new civil servants to implement the policies with which the government was elected. Pretty hard getting any teachers too.
One other part of the Election Platform I don’t quite understand – the debt forgiveness program for all teachers who owe up to THB500,000. Do they mean only those who have borrowed from the government or from anyone whatsoever?
Anyway, it’s going to be fun as all this is worked out as I’m sure it will be to everyone’s satisfaction.
12th Sakyadhita International Conference in Bangkok
Sounds like a very nice get together, although not religious per se, I find Buddhism in its simplest form (ie without being guided by a structured bureaucracy) interesting as it offers a way for personal development and enlightenment. Personal development opposed of course to most mainstream religions that are about money, power and/or control.
Report on SOAS event in London: “Thailand after the Coup”
[…] panels who went overseas in 2007 to explain the coup – see New Mandala postings here and here. No doubt they will […]
Surat Horachaikul’s talk at the ANU
[…] sponsored panels who went overseas in 2007 to explain the coup – see New Mandala postings here and here. No doubt they will […]
Analysis of Thailand’s prospects
Robert – 16
I got info from Thaksin interview, it turns out Thaksin and Somkiet were giving two different things. I’m aware of what Somkiet said but I think what Thaksin said is much more realistic but I still think they should do this slowly not an instant jump and the whole thing is just a marketing scheme
Analysis of Thailand’s prospects
Tarrin -14
Nah, the policy is for THB300 immediate in all provinces. Well, according the statements today of Labour Ministry permanent secretary Somkiat Chayasriwong it’s for all Provinces. I believe this was the understanding of those who voted also.
Thailand’s corruption record
John Smith #12.
Could you suggest an alternative ?
More on Marshall’s Thai Story
Patrick Jory(#11)-I’m not at all sure the cables support the idea that the US Embassy had a very strong bias against Thaksin: the ambassador’s cited ‘advice’ (pretty practical in retrospect, see footnote* below) is basically the same as what people such as Chaturon were urging, and there’s no indication it was given in anger. One also notes that they show little alarm in early 2006 that Thaksin’s position was in jeopardy. And reflecting a tendency to take most statements from the people they talk to at face value, the embassy repeatedly tells Washington in its confidential cables that a coup is not expected. It seems to me that the embassy’s misplaced confidence reflected conventional wisdom and was not very different from that of the Thaksin camp – both were caught out
At the risk of quoting selectively, this is one example, from 28 July 2006, by Charge d’Affaires Alex A. Arvizu:
06BANGKOK4610 MORE ON MILITARY RESHUFFLE — THAI ARMY PUTS APOLITICAL OFFICERS IN CHARGE OF KEY UNITS
…
COMMENT: WHAT WOULD CAUSE THE MILITARY TO INTERVENE?
8. (C) “What would cause the Army to step in?” When asking this question, Embassy officers have emphasized the importance of the Army staying out of politics and allowing the democratic process to play out. We have not hesitated to point out how Army intervention could damage Thailand’s relationship with the United States. Uniformly, senior officers from Sonthi on down have told us that the RTA has come a long way since 1991 and would be extremely unlikely to stage a coup. However, one RTSC general officer — a very reliable U.S. contact whose professional sense of duty has impressed us over the years — told us in a moment of candor that if Thaksin made a move that was interpreted as disloyal to the King, then the Army might have little choice but to intervene by removing Thaksin from the political scene, and quickly call for a new government to be appointed or elected.
Our contact stressed that he viewed such a scenario as remote, especially in light of recent developments, i.e. the royal decree announcing a general election on October 15, and the guilty verdict returned by the Criminal Court against the three members of the Election Commission, which many interpret as a necessary step toward increasing the chances of a fair election.
(Also of interest in this regard: 06BANGKOK5423 of 5 Sep 2006
AMBASSADOR’S SEPTEMBER 1 MEETING WITH PRIVY COUNCILOR SURAYUD CHULANONT )
* (Footnote)
06BANGKOK5811 of 20 Sep 2006
THAILAND: MY MEETING WITH GENERAL SONTHI
4. (C) Sonthi responded by saying the military had truly acted in order to improve Thai democracy, not destroy it. The prevailing situation had become untenable. Had Thaksin only been willing to announce publicly that he would not return as Prime Minister, this action could have been avoided. But his unwillingness to do publicly what he had repeatedly told many privately had led people to fear that his true intention was to seek a renewed mandate and return
to power. Thus the military had acted.
More on Marshall’s Thai Story
In one cable the ambassador acknowledges the important legitimizing role played by a certain institution: http://www.zenjournalist.com/2011/06/06bangkok5836/
It tends to suggest that a delegitimizing role would also have been possible – I wonder which role would have had the better long term effect on the institution’s reputation?
More on Marshall’s Thai Story
How much did the US Embassy know beforehand about the September 2006 coup?
One of the many interesting things about the Wikileaks cables (thanks to Andrew MacGregor Marshall) is that they reveal a very strong bias against Thaksin on the part of the Embassy, and an equally strong pro-monarchy stance. In fact, the Embassy’s position is not greatly dissimilar from the “elitist” Bangkok view.
In one cable dated 6 July 2006, the Ambassador actually “urged [Thaksin] again to consider announcing soon that he would not be back as prime minister, to spare the country from the continuing political tension. …”
It’s quite extraordinary that the elected leader of an extremely popular political party should be advised in this way by a US Ambassador.
But there are a number of other cables which suggest that the Embassy MAY have known more about the impending coup than we might have thought, and at relatively early stage.
In cable 06BANGKOK1214, “PRIVY COUNCILLOR/FORMER ARMY COMMANDER ON STATE OF PLAY”, dated 28 February 2006, it is reported that in a meeting with Privy Councillor Surayudh Julanond, Surayudh told the Ambassador:
“…The military also doesn\’t want to intervene on either side, according to Surayud. He admitted that there had been \”some talk\” within the military about the option of a \”one-day\” coup which would turn power over to the King. (Some of this has been picked up by the press.) But Surayud said he had spoken directly to Army Commander Sonthi (a Surayud protege) and he absolutely did not support such a move. Surayud noted with discomfort that his name has been mentioned as a possible interim Prime Minister in case of a coup, and said that he was keeping a very low profile in order to avoid fueling such speculation… ”
Then, only two days later, in cable 06BANGKOK1302 “THE THAI ARMY COMES TO DINNER” dated 2nd March 2006, at a dinner with Army Commander Sondhi Bunyaratkalin hosted by the Ambassador, it was reported:
“…Sonthi is a protege of retired Army Commander and current Privy Councilor General Surayud Chulanont. Sonthi told the Ambassador that Surayud is uncomfortable with press speculation that he might be appointed as an interim Prime Minister should Thaksin step down. Nonetheless, Sonthi was *** keenly interested *** in hearing about the Ambassador\’s February 28 meeting with Surayud and asked whether the Ambassador\’s impression of Surayud corresponded with his own (reftel)…” (my emphasis)
If one is going to carry out a coup, one needs to know the view of your closest ally. There are two ways of reading these cables. One, take them at face value; or, read from them that a signal was being sent to the Embassy about how it would react to a coup.
The cables show that the Ambassador kept in regular contact with Surayudh, meeting him again on 6 April (in which Surayudh was referred to, bizarrely, as “one of the most respected political figures in the country”), 18 May, and again on 1 September, just over two weeks before the coup.
Then, on 28 September, nine days after the coup, there is a cable which shows astonishing support on the part of the Embassy for Surayudh. The Ambassador called on Surayudh at the Privy Council Chambers: “…Turning to the current state of affairs, Surayud explained that on the evening of September 27, General Sonthi Boonyaratklin had come to his residence and asked him to be the interim Prime Minister. Surayud responded that he didn\’t really want the post, but if the King approved it, he obviously would take the position. I responded to this by saying that \”you and I both know what will happen;\” Surayud will take the job.”
“…I told Surayud that he is the right person for the job in this difficult situation […] Surayud is a well-respected, non-partisan figure with a sterling track record as a professional military officer. […] The CDRM has obviously reached out to Surayud because he is one of the few individuals with the credentials and prestige to unite the country in this troubled period. Under the current circumstances, Surayud is arguably the best person to head the interim civilian government. He is trusted by the palace and the military, and enjoys widespread respect across a broad spectrum of Thai citizens because of his integrity and previous service. His appointment would be a very positive development for Thailand internally, as well as for Thai-U.S. relations, and we should welcome it if and when it is announced”.
There is no evidence in the Wikileaks cables that I can find that the Embassy knew about or approved of the coup beforehand. But there is clear evidence that the Embassy was in regular contact with Surayudh, that it was aware of the possibility of a coup and Surayudh’s appointment, and that subsequent to the coup it had a very positive view of Suraydh’s appointment because, among other reasons, “he is trusted by the palace and the military” and it would be “very positive” for Thai-US relations.
Analysis of Thailand’s prospects
As long as Thailand’s archaic and revered ‘patronage system’ exists in the kingdom, real democracy will never arrive. Thai elites and all patrons right down the class scale have used the ‘patronage system’ not only to act with impunity but to enrich themselves so as to enforce their influence and control.
Sooner or later the broader population will acknowledge their folly by allowing these pseudo masters to control their democratic freedom.
The only question is when???
National lunacy
I posted an oped on Asian Correspondent entitled “Abhisit’s grace?” in the days just after the election when several commentators were gushing over the manner of Abhisit’s resignation.
My piece was then piously dismissed by many of the same commentators who seemed to studiously forget what had brought and then sustained Abhisit in power.
As Ralph Kramden explained in the very first comment on this thread this is just how Thailand’s Democrat Party roll. Put very simply they can’t take power with the consent of the Thai people.
You can find my oped here – http://asiancorrespondent.com/59190/abhisits-grace/
Analysis of Thailand’s prospects
Robert – 12
The 300 baht policy was meant for BKK and surrounding area only, I have to admit the first time I heard about the policy made me felt like this is more of a marketing scheme. I’m not expecting too much on this.
However, I still think 15,000 is not that far fetch. Skilled labor should not be cheap but it should also be worth to invest. Thailand need to promote business that required high skill, as long as the money invest into those skilled labor yield a good return. Same with why silicon valley never been move to somewhere in India because its worth the money to invest there.
Last, its not “computer pad” its ” tablet” and its noting compare to computer capability wise. If you follow the news, India and S. Korea already plan to introduce tablet into their education system, the plus with tablet is that the government will save a lot of on books in the future and students dont have to carry 7 text books to school everyday.
All in all, I dont think this government will last more than 6 months (assumed they dont get disbanded).
Analysis of Thailand’s prospects
@David Brown #7:
“what they have not grasped and observed elsewhere us that capitalism embedded in a democratic structure can still provide them the wealth and power they crave.”
That’s the whole point, it can’t or they would already have embraced it. The Thai survives not on wealth but on self-esteem. On perceived status. Substance is meaningless in Thailand, appearance (however dishonestly projected) is everything. Thai bigwigs are used to deference which they just don’t get elsewhere than Thailand; this is the reason there are so very few international Thai organisations. Also, the Thai bigwig did not get rich using the capitalist concepts of open competition and fair trade, they got rich by personal relationships and corrupt practices, just like many places in the west but magnified far beyond what would be tolerated in the west.
Capitalism as we understand it in the west is the nemesis of the Thai elite, it is precisely because they understand they cannot survive in an openly competitive market that they resist the move towards democracy. They are not about to let some unwashed peasant from Isaan tell them how to be fair, equitable and democratic when they’ve done so very well being precisely the opposite of that.
National lunacy
Vichai: easy to see why Barry has thrown you into confusion. Whatever you do, don’t read the Bangkok Post’s Sunday feature article on the apparent hiring people (probably PT supporters) to attend what were D*mo*ra* Party rallies in Bangkok.