C1. How the Thaksin-red shirt axis goes will depend on how the elite react. If they do a nice cuddly deal with Thaksin then with time the whole political grouping will drift apart, but while the elite remain interferring the axis will remain solid against a common enemy
Also dont underestimate Thaksin’s own electoral clout and popularity with many.
The reds too are made up of many groups across the political spectrum as indeed is PTP itself and splits if they do occur within the current allies will likely not be only characterised by red-Thaksin splits
Thaksin and the red shirts enjoy a marriage of convenience….for now. The red shirts use his money while Thaksin uses their electoral clout. What happens in the next couple of years between Thaksin and the entrenched elite will be a side show compared to the real battle once the interests of the red shirts and Thaksin part ways.
For now, the red shirts are likely to be disappointed in PT as the party seeks reconciliation with former foes (and perhaps even puts Thaksin’s personal interests first). But in the long term, the electorate’s aspirations will have to be met, or PT will find itself being steamrollered by its own voters as they turn to radical action. The tail can’t wag the dog forever. The days of rural Thais submitting meekly as pawns in elite family power struggles are over.
“It’s not hard to see where the big fall in Thailand’s international corruption perceptions ranking occurred.”
I see the Corruption Perception index used many time as an attempt to show that the Thaksin years were not that bad and how it has declined since the 2006 coup and during Democrat coalition time.
What they seem to ignore, is what Transparency International say in the FAQ on the index about using the index in trend analysis.
Can country/territory scores in the 2010 CPI be compared to those in past editions of the CPI?
The index is based on rankings of countries/territories calculated using a changing set of source surveys. The CPI is therefore not the appropriate tool for comparisons over time. Additionally, the number of sources and countries included has varied over time since the CPI’s inception in 1995. Certain source surveys have been added or discontinued. In an effort to improve the index over the last 15 years, TI has also made slight modifications to the methodology. As a consequence, the CPI cannot be used for accurate trend analysis.
In the interest of fair and balanced coverage, it should be added that here in Nakhon Pathom the mafia that controls, well, all the illegal businesses in the city, were handing out 800 baht bribes if you wanted to vote for Peua Thai. Local Thai voters were free to accept it or not, and to vote however they wished, presumably without repercussions. However, they let it be known that no bribes by the Democrat Party or the other minor parties would be tolerated.
I also find the allegation totally plausible. I can cite another instance: a Farang colleague here at Mahidol University tells me his mother-in-law told him she was quite happy to accept the 300 baht bribe from the Democrat party in Phitsanuloke province, only to turn around and vote for the Peua Thai Party. I think her attitude is one of, “if they are dumb enough to give us the money, they deserve to lose both the vote and their cash.”
A nice piece of fiction. As you know, Thailand is beset with a lot of problems. One would be insane to think that peace is found in every corner of Thailand. This is the sort of thing that only a backward country tries to treasure, where people are treated like dirt.
Let’s face it. Thai people are basically corrupt. I am a Thai and I have seen potential corruption in every walk of Thai life. Chances are–with few exceptions–that my fellow Thais always wait for an opportunity to cheat on me if I get careless. You are just dreaming if you think corruption can be driven away from Thai life. It is here to stay, and nothing short of transplanting all Thais will do the trick, which would be well nigh impossible.
I am shamefully one of those who stayed home… I stayed tune to the computer for news of the rally, half wondering if many would make it past the barricade that shut up the city. My heart leapt with joy, when I read of the thousands who braved a ruthless PDRM and FRU… Tears flowed but my heart is full of joy. There is hope for Malaysia.
Don’t forget the case of General Sonthi Bunyaratakalin. This guy led the coup of 2006 and afterward a law was promulgated whereby he and his horde were freed of punishment for that serious crime. Thaksin’s supposedly wrongdoing paled before this man’s unconstitutional act. And now he is leading a bona fide political party.
Buying votes in Thailand would only work if you could actually doublecheck if the voter completed their end of the bargain. Giving the Kamnan the money to distribute among the villagers is holding him responsible to deliver the votes but he is elected by those same villagers so he is likely to side with their wishes.
Ok , so he’ll take the money , maybe from several parties, then tell his constituents to do as they wish. They’ll then work out a consensus in an informal way among themselves by way of gossip and chatter and seeing that they have been assisted by Thaksin before they’ll go with their long term benefactor. It’s really not that different to Western methods but done in a more primitive fashion. The Democrats ignored the rural poor for decades and that’s the reason they’re getting beaten time and time again. Now they want to get back through the back door by “legal” means. What a joke they are! Somebody should explain constituancy politics to them.
Malaysians are generally mild mannered and pleasant people. It’s mind boggling to see them come together to voice their feelings. I can feel their love of country and the KING. We are blessed now that the reigning King is the most energetic and caring Monarch we have for a long time. Wouldn’t it be great that he has the powers to do something about what we ask for! Simply “a clean and fair elections”. The election commission is under his tutelage after all and a royal commission could change a lot of the discrepancies that seem to sully the democratic elections of our beloved country. Daulat Tuanku!
Relating to the issue about Samak I said above, among Thaksin’s Red Shirt followers and even among many observers, there’s been debates whether Thaksin himself was already “ta-sawang” (eyes opened, or perhaps more literally, eyes see the lights). Now we can definitely say that on the most basic meaning of that code term (or what the Red Shirts are fond of saying “do you know who you are fighting with?”), Thaksin was “ta-sawang” long time ago since 2006, i.e. earlier than most of his followers who only experienced it after 13 October 2008. But of course, how he acted, or would act, after that “ta-sawang”, could be (indeed was) different to many of his own followers.
Reality Chic, a flop? Perhaps you weren’t there then at the rally to see the sea of humanity who managed to be in the middle of KL despite an all out effort by the police to blockade KL. The police has done a good job in hurting unarmed and peaceful people and for firing tear gas and chemically laced water into a hospital compound – an illegal act even during war.
Gerrymandering in Malaysia is a fact and is documented by non other than the Elections Commision itself. Do check the statistics on the EC’s own website to see for yourself.
It’s too early to tell how, in the long run, the cables released by Andrew MacGregor Marshall and his essay based on them will change our common understanding of this 5-years old crisis, but speaking for myself as an historian and as someone who’s been following the crisis closely, my own understanding has already been altered on one crucial issue I’m always particularly interested in. I now see that the conflict between Thaksin and the “palace circles” during the period leading up to the 2006 coup, had been MUCH more intense than I previously thought.
To take one (in)famous example: Thaksin’s speech in July attacking the so-called “charismatic person outside the Constitution”. Although Thaksin confirmed to the American at the time (cable 7/7/2006) that he was referring to Prem (“to flip on the lights, and flush out the ghosts”), given what he told the American in that cable and in another, important cable in the middle of May, I think that although he might indeed be referring to Prem, but he DEFINITELY had something (or someone) else in his mind too.
It is also very interesting, I think, to compare Thaksin’s own awarness/understanding of the conflict, as he related to the Americans in several cables in 2006 (and some in 2008), to what Samak told the American in a 2008 cable released last year (cable 1/10/2008). It’s clear that Samsak had more limited understanding of the issue involved (or we could say that he, even at that late moment in the conflict, still held certain illusions about it).
In order to dissolve Pheu Thai , the Court would have to establish, in accordance with Section 237 of the Constitution, that one of its candidates committed electoral fraud “resulting in the election to be conducted in a dishonest or unfair manner,” and that at least one party executive was complicit in the fraud or failed to stop it. Electoral fraud is defined narrowly as a “violation of Organic Act on the Election of Members of the House of Representatives and the Source of Senators, or Rules or Notifications of the Election Commission,” but does not include infractions of the Organic Act on Political Parties of the kind that Thaksin and Chaturon stand accused of committing. No reading of the relevant statutes can support the dissolution of Pheu Thai based on the role played by banned politicians, as the conditions simply do not exist.
Of course, stranger things have happened in Thailand, but even by the very low standards of the past five years, going forward with this complaint would be a brazen affront to basic rule of law.
Facebook 
Twitter 
Soundcloud 
Youtube 
Rss
Analysis of Thailand’s prospects
C1. How the Thaksin-red shirt axis goes will depend on how the elite react. If they do a nice cuddly deal with Thaksin then with time the whole political grouping will drift apart, but while the elite remain interferring the axis will remain solid against a common enemy
Also dont underestimate Thaksin’s own electoral clout and popularity with many.
The reds too are made up of many groups across the political spectrum as indeed is PTP itself and splits if they do occur within the current allies will likely not be only characterised by red-Thaksin splits
Analysis of Thailand’s prospects
Thaksin and the red shirts enjoy a marriage of convenience….for now. The red shirts use his money while Thaksin uses their electoral clout. What happens in the next couple of years between Thaksin and the entrenched elite will be a side show compared to the real battle once the interests of the red shirts and Thaksin part ways.
For now, the red shirts are likely to be disappointed in PT as the party seeks reconciliation with former foes (and perhaps even puts Thaksin’s personal interests first). But in the long term, the electorate’s aspirations will have to be met, or PT will find itself being steamrollered by its own voters as they turn to radical action. The tail can’t wag the dog forever. The days of rural Thais submitting meekly as pawns in elite family power struggles are over.
Thailand’s corruption record
“It’s not hard to see where the big fall in Thailand’s international corruption perceptions ranking occurred.”
I see the Corruption Perception index used many time as an attempt to show that the Thaksin years were not that bad and how it has declined since the 2006 coup and during Democrat coalition time.
What they seem to ignore, is what Transparency International say in the FAQ on the index about using the index in trend analysis.
http://www.transparency.org/policy_research/surveys_indices/cpi/2010/faqs
Can country/territory scores in the 2010 CPI be compared to those in past editions of the CPI?
The index is based on rankings of countries/territories calculated using a changing set of source surveys. The CPI is therefore not the appropriate tool for comparisons over time. Additionally, the number of sources and countries included has varied over time since the CPI’s inception in 1995. Certain source surveys have been added or discontinued. In an effort to improve the index over the last 15 years, TI has also made slight modifications to the methodology. As a consequence, the CPI cannot be used for accurate trend analysis.
National lunacy
In the interest of fair and balanced coverage, it should be added that here in Nakhon Pathom the mafia that controls, well, all the illegal businesses in the city, were handing out 800 baht bribes if you wanted to vote for Peua Thai. Local Thai voters were free to accept it or not, and to vote however they wished, presumably without repercussions. However, they let it be known that no bribes by the Democrat Party or the other minor parties would be tolerated.
National lunacy
Arthurson, you are missing the point of what I find implausible. What you describe from your colleague is exactly what I have observed. AW
National lunacy
@ Andrew Walker re U. Chemp’s (16) commentary:
I also find the allegation totally plausible. I can cite another instance: a Farang colleague here at Mahidol University tells me his mother-in-law told him she was quite happy to accept the 300 baht bribe from the Democrat party in Phitsanuloke province, only to turn around and vote for the Peua Thai Party. I think her attitude is one of, “if they are dumb enough to give us the money, they deserve to lose both the vote and their cash.”
Thai election 2011: New Mandala’s wrap-up
Regarding the above comment, I was referring to the pullout box; not the article.
Thai election 2011: New Mandala’s wrap-up
Your headline “New Mandala’s Wrap-Up” caused me some initial distress. “Thai Election Wrap-Up” might have been better.
BERSIH 2.0 overcomes the police state
The elderly lady in the photo above is now called The Lady of Liberty. Please read more via this link:
http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/malaysia/article/lady-of-liberty-at-bersih-march-draws-online-support/
and a new FB account just created:
http://www.facebook.com/pages/Malaysian-Lady-Of-Liberty/227295033969781
National lunacy
Proof only need rest in what is deemed, and not necessarily in what is. Vote buying or lese majeste, appearances are what carries more weight.
The army and the god king
A nice piece of fiction. As you know, Thailand is beset with a lot of problems. One would be insane to think that peace is found in every corner of Thailand. This is the sort of thing that only a backward country tries to treasure, where people are treated like dirt.
Thailand’s corruption record
Let’s face it. Thai people are basically corrupt. I am a Thai and I have seen potential corruption in every walk of Thai life. Chances are–with few exceptions–that my fellow Thais always wait for an opportunity to cheat on me if I get careless. You are just dreaming if you think corruption can be driven away from Thai life. It is here to stay, and nothing short of transplanting all Thais will do the trick, which would be well nigh impossible.
BERSIH 2.0 overcomes the police state
I am shamefully one of those who stayed home… I stayed tune to the computer for news of the rally, half wondering if many would make it past the barricade that shut up the city. My heart leapt with joy, when I read of the thousands who braved a ruthless PDRM and FRU… Tears flowed but my heart is full of joy. There is hope for Malaysia.
National lunacy
Don’t forget the case of General Sonthi Bunyaratakalin. This guy led the coup of 2006 and afterward a law was promulgated whereby he and his horde were freed of punishment for that serious crime. Thaksin’s supposedly wrongdoing paled before this man’s unconstitutional act. And now he is leading a bona fide political party.
National lunacy
Buying votes in Thailand would only work if you could actually doublecheck if the voter completed their end of the bargain. Giving the Kamnan the money to distribute among the villagers is holding him responsible to deliver the votes but he is elected by those same villagers so he is likely to side with their wishes.
Ok , so he’ll take the money , maybe from several parties, then tell his constituents to do as they wish. They’ll then work out a consensus in an informal way among themselves by way of gossip and chatter and seeing that they have been assisted by Thaksin before they’ll go with their long term benefactor. It’s really not that different to Western methods but done in a more primitive fashion. The Democrats ignored the rural poor for decades and that’s the reason they’re getting beaten time and time again. Now they want to get back through the back door by “legal” means. What a joke they are! Somebody should explain constituancy politics to them.
BERSIH 2.0 overcomes the police state
Malaysians are generally mild mannered and pleasant people. It’s mind boggling to see them come together to voice their feelings. I can feel their love of country and the KING. We are blessed now that the reigning King is the most energetic and caring Monarch we have for a long time. Wouldn’t it be great that he has the powers to do something about what we ask for! Simply “a clean and fair elections”. The election commission is under his tutelage after all and a royal commission could change a lot of the discrepancies that seem to sully the democratic elections of our beloved country. Daulat Tuanku!
More on Marshall’s Thai Story
Relating to the issue about Samak I said above, among Thaksin’s Red Shirt followers and even among many observers, there’s been debates whether Thaksin himself was already “ta-sawang” (eyes opened, or perhaps more literally, eyes see the lights). Now we can definitely say that on the most basic meaning of that code term (or what the Red Shirts are fond of saying “do you know who you are fighting with?”), Thaksin was “ta-sawang” long time ago since 2006, i.e. earlier than most of his followers who only experienced it after 13 October 2008. But of course, how he acted, or would act, after that “ta-sawang”, could be (indeed was) different to many of his own followers.
It was brutal, Najib!
Reality Chic, a flop? Perhaps you weren’t there then at the rally to see the sea of humanity who managed to be in the middle of KL despite an all out effort by the police to blockade KL. The police has done a good job in hurting unarmed and peaceful people and for firing tear gas and chemically laced water into a hospital compound – an illegal act even during war.
Gerrymandering in Malaysia is a fact and is documented by non other than the Elections Commision itself. Do check the statistics on the EC’s own website to see for yourself.
More on Marshall’s Thai Story
It’s too early to tell how, in the long run, the cables released by Andrew MacGregor Marshall and his essay based on them will change our common understanding of this 5-years old crisis, but speaking for myself as an historian and as someone who’s been following the crisis closely, my own understanding has already been altered on one crucial issue I’m always particularly interested in. I now see that the conflict between Thaksin and the “palace circles” during the period leading up to the 2006 coup, had been MUCH more intense than I previously thought.
To take one (in)famous example: Thaksin’s speech in July attacking the so-called “charismatic person outside the Constitution”. Although Thaksin confirmed to the American at the time (cable 7/7/2006) that he was referring to Prem (“to flip on the lights, and flush out the ghosts”), given what he told the American in that cable and in another, important cable in the middle of May, I think that although he might indeed be referring to Prem, but he DEFINITELY had something (or someone) else in his mind too.
It is also very interesting, I think, to compare Thaksin’s own awarness/understanding of the conflict, as he related to the Americans in several cables in 2006 (and some in 2008), to what Samak told the American in a 2008 cable released last year (cable 1/10/2008). It’s clear that Samsak had more limited understanding of the issue involved (or we could say that he, even at that late moment in the conflict, still held certain illusions about it).
National lunacy
Sore Losers