For those who are interested, the archive is being updated daily with new cables as I redact and format them. It now has all key political cables from 2005 and 2006 up to and including the coup. In coming days and weeks I will add all the rest. Of more than 3,000 cables on Thailand, around a third are purely bureaucratic and procedural and I don’t plan to upload those, but everything else will be put online as a resource for everybody. Best wishes.
Matthias Chang, a former political secretary to Mahathir Mohamed has an interesting analysis on the BERSIH 2.0 rally.
My third advice to the Prime Minister is to place in cold storage, the irrelevant UMNO Youth leader. If you do that, you would have – to a certain extent – applied the Blue Ocean Strategy. Your biggest problem and challenge is internal, within the ranks of your party – UMNO political warlords, not the Opposition parties.
Dixie: The Democrate really needs an urgently change in their party. Otherwise they cannot survive in the changing. But I wonder can they do so. It seems like they are more too beurocratic/conservative. Even they had several excellence campaigns, but could not communicate well enough to the people who benefit form (even who are grass root people) e.g. a co-pay coverage program for unregistered labour, credit card refinance (some were criticized as to buy a popularity).
, there are violent groups purposefully killing civilians AND security forces alike to escalate the violence to reach a “critical mass.”
Its so easy to prevent that situation, just not bring the military in and use riot police instead. Then if someone start shooting we know for sure its not the government.
Stuart: The PT voters cannot make any change or evne concern about the commitment from the party. They are busying spending what they got for their vote. The critical issue for Yingluk is how to satisfy the groups inside the party and might need help from the exile brother.
Point here is not about not to slap anyone for minor charge, but the penalty should be inline with wrong doing, Thailand will be a laughing stock if Yingluck got ban from cooking noodle. Furthermore, its not only about enforcing law, but also enforce law equally, if Yingluck is to be charge from cooking noodle, Abhisit should also be charge as well.
Buying vote is not that simplicity thing. Some did it smoothly and well plan. A government pulled out money from underground lottery and made it legal then freely (that need law bending) use it to pay for the medle men (with no need to be approved by the paliament) esp. in NE. The midle men included, head of villages, some village mafioso, highly respected monks (by promising for new building in the temples). That why, in some occasion (at the time) there were chants for undelivered promosing money. It quite curious to think that the fraudulent in this election were stregthforward as money paying or the result of the election was from the popularity. The votes from Bangkokian is a difference story. The voter changed (several time) depend on the performance/ popularity of the gevernment, Democrat also got hurt form the change (TRT and Palung Dham/ Chumlong Srimuang gained the majority). Some belive that improving the education might close the gap between urban and villagers, nobody seem to take it seriously, with the benefit they get from the poor people (only 15 years free-study from Democrate /still struggle on the implementation, or may be the new Bht 300/day can help?).
The return of Thaksin may be a pressing immediate issue, but it is neither the prickliest nor the biggest issue of all, as Willie suggests. The biggest issue of all is whether or not PT will be able to meet the aspirations of the people who voted for them. Having woken up the peasants, Thaksin and PT will find it very hard to put them back to sleep again. Is PT a genuine representative of a peoples’ movement, or is it just a clever player in what is just another internecine power struggle among Bangkok’s elite? In the long run, the answer to this question will be most telling on Thailand’s future.
Many outside observers assume too quickly that vote buying works. That is, that people vote for the candidate who pays them. And usually, the outsiders assume that only one candidate hands out money — the candidate or the party they don’t like.
The truth is more nuanced. It’s safe to assume that most, if not all parties, hand out money to voters. That is, voters get money from more than one candidate. And the voters gladly take the money from multiple sources … and then vote for whomever they prefer. “Vote buying” may gain some votes at the margin, but in the end not many votes are actually bought and sold.
I think William Pesek made an inaccurate assertion here.
It’s easy to forget how billionaire Thaksin bent Thailand’s leadership apparatus – the courts, bureaucracy and the military – to his will to benefit his business interests.
The 3 institutions certainly never been fully under Thaksin’s control, if that’s the case the court wouldn’t null the 2006 election just because the EC turns the voting box in a wrong position or even the 2006 coup itself. The elite network as a whole, rather, were the one controlling the 3 institution. Thaksin was (and is) part of the elite, he was certainly benefit from the elite exploit but he is surely does not have control over it.
Fact is, UDD spokesman Sean Boonpracong after the April 10th bloodbath said militants intervened on UDD’s behalf (Reuters) – Seh Daeng himself claimed to have 300 men armed with M79’s under his command (The Age)
Having been in the military myself and knowing full well what the weapons the Thai military employed are capable of doing, had they been really “massacring” people, 100’s would be dead per day. I observed just what they described in this report -and in your heart of hearts anyone who witnessed 2010’s events knows this is true.
The report itself says they suspected around 500 armed militants to be amongst the protesters. Everyone in Bangkok during April/May 2010 remembers the nightly gun battles – you know there were armed elements and even HRW & the foreign press has to admit it even if they use weasel words like “mostly unarmed.”
How else should you deal with a situation like this? And in the report they mention “UDD snipers” of course they are the ones that killed Col. Romklao on April 10, and most likely were the ones at least partly responsible for killing people throughout the remainder of the operations.
Just as we see in Yemen and Syria now, there are violent groups purposefully killing civilians AND security forces alike to escalate the violence to reach a “critical mass.”
If you are mad about the loss of life – be angry at protest leaders who allowed their protests to serve as cover for armed militants EVERYONE admits were there. Be angry at how they attempted and still do attempt to leverage the loss of life to this very day as a political ploy. Be angry at the leaders who duped their followers into a “peaceful” protest they knew they were preparing to spring as a bloodbath. After April 10th, negotiations were out of the question. No government on Earth would negotiate with a group that sanctioned the murder of government troops.
The govt. is guilty of all sorts of shenanigans, dishonesty, and coverups of various failures in the above stated operation – however it is a stretch – a very malicious one at that – to assert the military purposefully “massacred” civilians. Having been a Marine – a single competent marksman, not even a sniper, could have killed HUNDREDS of people a day. The Thai military had thousands of troops in the city for weeks – do the math.
Of 91 dead – 9 were police and soldiers. 1 was a woman killed by a UDD M79 fired via indirect fire from Lumpinee Park, and at least 1 protester died of smoke inhalation when looting a building fellow protesters had lit ablaze. Over the weeks of unrest, 91 is a shockingly low number for a “bloodthirsty military machine” bent on massacre.
Use some commonsense – however – already I see people cutting parts out selectively and totally ignoring the fact that the whole strategy was built around countering heavily armed militants using the protests as cover. There are camps on both sides, but then a silent majority that eclipses both – by far a majority. They will read this report and arrive somewhere in between the government coverups and the UDD apologists who attempt to whitewash their role in the violence.
My view is that Michelle Yeoh was banned from Burma because she played Colonel Wai Lin, a Communist Chinese secret agent, in the James Bond movie “Tomorrow Never Dies”. She also played a martial arts expert in another movie and the generals are probably afraid that she might teach ASSK how to fight, especially since ASSK stated in her BBC interview that all options, including violence, is now on the table.
Than Shwe not making the same mistake twice – well, two Deputy Chief of Mission at the Burmese Embassy in Washington DC has defected during the past five years. They voted with their feet. You generally send your best personnel to the Embassy in Washington DC.
Whether ASSK is a participant or observer in Burma’s Fight for Freedom will depend on whether NLD delineates a practical and effective PLAN B.
If you aren’t prepared to enforce electoral laws then why have elections at all? Political parties that engage in electoral fraud need to have their heads kicked. Hard.
Corruption and electoral fraud is never ok. If you don’t slap the minor infractions it eventually grows into a monster.
The Muslims in the south – as are all Muslims – are strictly monotheistic. How does this play to that constituency?
The short answer is that it doesn’t. This is indicative of the ignorance and arrogance of the current approach of the Thai military in the South.
I doubt you could find even one General amongst the officer corps that has even heard of the Panthay Rebellion, much less having taken the time to study how China, historically, has had overall success in dealing with the Hui minority population.
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More on Marshall’s Thai Story
For those who are interested, the archive is being updated daily with new cables as I redact and format them. It now has all key political cables from 2005 and 2006 up to and including the coup. In coming days and weeks I will add all the rest. Of more than 3,000 cables on Thailand, around a third are purely bureaucratic and procedural and I don’t plan to upload those, but everything else will be put online as a resource for everybody. Best wishes.
BERSIH 2.0 overcomes the police state
Matthias Chang, a former political secretary to Mahathir Mohamed has an interesting analysis on the BERSIH 2.0 rally.
The Democrats in Bangkok
Dixie: The Democrate really needs an urgently change in their party. Otherwise they cannot survive in the changing. But I wonder can they do so. It seems like they are more too beurocratic/conservative. Even they had several excellence campaigns, but could not communicate well enough to the people who benefit form (even who are grass root people) e.g. a co-pay coverage program for unregistered labour, credit card refinance (some were criticized as to buy a popularity).
The military strategy at Ratchaprasong
Tony – 6
, there are violent groups purposefully killing civilians AND security forces alike to escalate the violence to reach a “critical mass.”
Its so easy to prevent that situation, just not bring the military in and use riot police instead. Then if someone start shooting we know for sure its not the government.
Thailand’s corruption record
Stuart: The PT voters cannot make any change or evne concern about the commitment from the party. They are busying spending what they got for their vote. The critical issue for Yingluk is how to satisfy the groups inside the party and might need help from the exile brother.
National lunacy
Simon – 43
Point here is not about not to slap anyone for minor charge, but the penalty should be inline with wrong doing, Thailand will be a laughing stock if Yingluck got ban from cooking noodle. Furthermore, its not only about enforcing law, but also enforce law equally, if Yingluck is to be charge from cooking noodle, Abhisit should also be charge as well.
It was brutal, Najib!
Asian Spring?
Thailand’s corruption record
Stuart….
why would PT want to put the people back to sleep again?
anyway, Thaksin was popular because he did meet the peoples aspirations
and, we expect PT will do the same unless the military/elites manage to stop them
democracy works provided everyone, including those that dont want it accept the will of the people at every election
when will the military/elites learn to live under control of democratically elected governments?
National lunacy
Buying vote is not that simplicity thing. Some did it smoothly and well plan. A government pulled out money from underground lottery and made it legal then freely (that need law bending) use it to pay for the medle men (with no need to be approved by the paliament) esp. in NE. The midle men included, head of villages, some village mafioso, highly respected monks (by promising for new building in the temples). That why, in some occasion (at the time) there were chants for undelivered promosing money. It quite curious to think that the fraudulent in this election were stregthforward as money paying or the result of the election was from the popularity. The votes from Bangkokian is a difference story. The voter changed (several time) depend on the performance/ popularity of the gevernment, Democrat also got hurt form the change (TRT and Palung Dham/ Chumlong Srimuang gained the majority). Some belive that improving the education might close the gap between urban and villagers, nobody seem to take it seriously, with the benefit they get from the poor people (only 15 years free-study from Democrate /still struggle on the implementation, or may be the new Bht 300/day can help?).
It was brutal, Najib!
I was there at the rally yesterday. The only party using force and hurting people was the police.
Thailand’s corruption record
The return of Thaksin may be a pressing immediate issue, but it is neither the prickliest nor the biggest issue of all, as Willie suggests. The biggest issue of all is whether or not PT will be able to meet the aspirations of the people who voted for them. Having woken up the peasants, Thaksin and PT will find it very hard to put them back to sleep again. Is PT a genuine representative of a peoples’ movement, or is it just a clever player in what is just another internecine power struggle among Bangkok’s elite? In the long run, the answer to this question will be most telling on Thailand’s future.
National lunacy
Many outside observers assume too quickly that vote buying works. That is, that people vote for the candidate who pays them. And usually, the outsiders assume that only one candidate hands out money — the candidate or the party they don’t like.
The truth is more nuanced. It’s safe to assume that most, if not all parties, hand out money to voters. That is, voters get money from more than one candidate. And the voters gladly take the money from multiple sources … and then vote for whomever they prefer. “Vote buying” may gain some votes at the margin, but in the end not many votes are actually bought and sold.
Thailand’s corruption record
I have provided some clarification and additional information on this post. AW
It was brutal, Najib!
It sounds as though the Thai disease has infected Malaysia. And now it will embolden the Bangkok elite in its handling of its ‘Yinglak problem’?
Thailand’s corruption record
I think William Pesek made an inaccurate assertion here.
It’s easy to forget how billionaire Thaksin bent Thailand’s leadership apparatus – the courts, bureaucracy and the military – to his will to benefit his business interests.
The 3 institutions certainly never been fully under Thaksin’s control, if that’s the case the court wouldn’t null the 2006 election just because the EC turns the voting box in a wrong position or even the 2006 coup itself. The elite network as a whole, rather, were the one controlling the 3 institution. Thaksin was (and is) part of the elite, he was certainly benefit from the elite exploit but he is surely does not have control over it.
The military strategy at Ratchaprasong
Fact is, UDD spokesman Sean Boonpracong after the April 10th bloodbath said militants intervened on UDD’s behalf (Reuters) – Seh Daeng himself claimed to have 300 men armed with M79’s under his command (The Age)
Having been in the military myself and knowing full well what the weapons the Thai military employed are capable of doing, had they been really “massacring” people, 100’s would be dead per day. I observed just what they described in this report -and in your heart of hearts anyone who witnessed 2010’s events knows this is true.
The report itself says they suspected around 500 armed militants to be amongst the protesters. Everyone in Bangkok during April/May 2010 remembers the nightly gun battles – you know there were armed elements and even HRW & the foreign press has to admit it even if they use weasel words like “mostly unarmed.”
How else should you deal with a situation like this? And in the report they mention “UDD snipers” of course they are the ones that killed Col. Romklao on April 10, and most likely were the ones at least partly responsible for killing people throughout the remainder of the operations.
Just as we see in Yemen and Syria now, there are violent groups purposefully killing civilians AND security forces alike to escalate the violence to reach a “critical mass.”
If you are mad about the loss of life – be angry at protest leaders who allowed their protests to serve as cover for armed militants EVERYONE admits were there. Be angry at how they attempted and still do attempt to leverage the loss of life to this very day as a political ploy. Be angry at the leaders who duped their followers into a “peaceful” protest they knew they were preparing to spring as a bloodbath. After April 10th, negotiations were out of the question. No government on Earth would negotiate with a group that sanctioned the murder of government troops.
The govt. is guilty of all sorts of shenanigans, dishonesty, and coverups of various failures in the above stated operation – however it is a stretch – a very malicious one at that – to assert the military purposefully “massacred” civilians. Having been a Marine – a single competent marksman, not even a sniper, could have killed HUNDREDS of people a day. The Thai military had thousands of troops in the city for weeks – do the math.
Of 91 dead – 9 were police and soldiers. 1 was a woman killed by a UDD M79 fired via indirect fire from Lumpinee Park, and at least 1 protester died of smoke inhalation when looting a building fellow protesters had lit ablaze. Over the weeks of unrest, 91 is a shockingly low number for a “bloodthirsty military machine” bent on massacre.
Use some commonsense – however – already I see people cutting parts out selectively and totally ignoring the fact that the whole strategy was built around countering heavily armed militants using the protests as cover. There are camps on both sides, but then a silent majority that eclipses both – by far a majority. They will read this report and arrive somewhere in between the government coverups and the UDD apologists who attempt to whitewash their role in the violence.
Kevin Rudd and Aung San Suu Kyi
My view is that Michelle Yeoh was banned from Burma because she played Colonel Wai Lin, a Communist Chinese secret agent, in the James Bond movie “Tomorrow Never Dies”. She also played a martial arts expert in another movie and the generals are probably afraid that she might teach ASSK how to fight, especially since ASSK stated in her BBC interview that all options, including violence, is now on the table.
Than Shwe not making the same mistake twice – well, two Deputy Chief of Mission at the Burmese Embassy in Washington DC has defected during the past five years. They voted with their feet. You generally send your best personnel to the Embassy in Washington DC.
Whether ASSK is a participant or observer in Burma’s Fight for Freedom will depend on whether NLD delineates a practical and effective PLAN B.
National lunacy
If you aren’t prepared to enforce electoral laws then why have elections at all? Political parties that engage in electoral fraud need to have their heads kicked. Hard.
Corruption and electoral fraud is never ok. If you don’t slap the minor infractions it eventually grows into a monster.
The Democrats in Bangkok
Imtiaz Muqbil has a distinctive take on the urban/rural divide.
http://www.travel-impact-newswire.com/2011/07/divided-thailand-faces-short-term-gain-long-term-pain/
Some may consider some relevant issues are omitted from this bizarre piece of dishonest and partisan analysis.
The army and the god king
re: tom hoy
The Muslims in the south – as are all Muslims – are strictly monotheistic. How does this play to that constituency?
The short answer is that it doesn’t. This is indicative of the ignorance and arrogance of the current approach of the Thai military in the South.
I doubt you could find even one General amongst the officer corps that has even heard of the Panthay Rebellion, much less having taken the time to study how China, historically, has had overall success in dealing with the Hui minority population.