Comments

  1. LesAbbey says:

    The harsh reality is that the only chance Thailand has for political stability after the July 3 election is a strong Pheua Thai victory. That has nothing to do with the political and personal virtues or failings of the Pheua Thai candidates. It’s all about electoral mathematics.

    Really Andrew? Based on your electoral predictions of course. Didn’t the Democrat/Bhun Jai coalition seem fairly stable in parliamentary business? Do you mean that if Phue Thai get 225 seats then the Democrats should not try to form another coalition with a majority of the MPs? Is this some sort of constitutional law I haven’t read about? It didn’t seem to be the one in operation after Australia’s recent snap election. Wasn’t everyone trying to sign up those independents?

    Or do you mean that a Phue Thai government is the only thing that will keep the red-shirts off the streets? If so that would be far more sinister. Swing 180 degrees from that argument and we could say that a Democrat led coalition would be the only thing that would keep the army in the barracks, but that argument would be just as wrong.

  2. SteveCM says:

    Jayzee (c5) The Post’s end-of-rally photo (http://www.bangkokpost.com/media/content/20110624/281416.jpg ) is very revealing. Like a kremlinologist, you just have to know how to read it…..

    Only one person on stage (on the right behind the bouquet) is actually signalling #10 (i.e. vote Democrat) – though he could also be surrendering. Most of the rest are pushing a vote for Chuwit’s “I want to be the opposition” party (#5). There’s a couple of clenched fists….. likely in support of the old-style PAD – or maybe a switch to a yet-to-emerge Muay Thai party? Finally, there’s renowned master of figures Korn – signalling #3….. which is the “New Democracy Party”. So, thoughts of Korn just waiting to step into a departed Abhisit’s party shoes need to be revised.

    See? Easy when you know how.

  3. Pupeow says:

    This is so funny, I cannot stop laughing!

    Love the short terms XD

  4. Athita says:

    Whatever they tried to explain, as a Thai, I have already decided which party to be voted.

    Two years in the office is enough for Democrat.

  5. Jayzee says:

    Who on earth decided to put that photo on the front of the BP website? A whole bunch of ‘democrats’ holding their hands up in a fairly good replica of a salute associated with a party that started around 80 years ago – and also liked coloured shirts…

    … or maybe it’s an accurate portrayal after all?

  6. John Snitizen says:

    Network Monarchy- For when one Invisible Hand just isn’t enough. http://twitpic.com/5fk209

  7. Chivan says:

    The South China Sea should be changed to the Southeast Asia Sea and Gulf of Thailand should be changed to Gulf of Indochina.

  8. Tarrin says:

    abc – 4

    Not that I say arson is cool but there are many murky circumstances surrounding CTW burning such as the soldier was obviously took control of the area sometime in the afternoon how did they let the burning happened. Gaysorn Plaza was left untouch (the LV bag in front of the building was all accounted for, and each value easily exceed 50,000) why is that?. It took more than just gasoline to burn a building of that size and structure, it was obviously someone who knows the art of arsonist. There are several people (securities guard and such) inside CTW at that time, they certainly KNOW who is behind all these, why no one ever interrogate them? What about the Jiratiwat family member who said that some “heavily armed group of people” was responsible for the burning. How did the red shirt, who were obviously being pin down at Wat Pratum from the Army sharpshooter team be able to conduct all the act?

    Hopefully some of these point will be discuss in detail.

  9. R. N. England says:

    The article behind a pay wall at “The Times” is free here:
    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/world/wikileaks-cables-reveal-scandal-and-disease-in-thai-royal-family/story-e6frg6so-1226080868978
    It’s a summary of the most sensational parts of Andrew Marshall’s article. My own summary would be:
    Mad and bad Queen fights with mad and bad Thaksin for control of mad and bad future King.

  10. LesAbbey says:

    Having said about Andrew Marshall flogging his own horse I have to admit that my steed is close to death, or maybe already dead. Even so let’s have another go.

    Seeing that Andrew has put up the cables he is referencing please take the trouble to look at them. They are at http://thaicables.wordpress.com/. We should all have the ability to make up our own minds from the evidence provided.

    Now it’s very easy to get into a chicken and egg, which comes first, argument, but could we be looking in the first part of Andrew’s Thai story at the symptoms rather the cause.

    If we took a rather crude look at democracy we could say that it is an attempt to elect a benign dictator with a limited term of power. Fortunately in most mature democracies we are not that gullible and we make sure there are some checks and balances built in.

    Sometimes these checks and balances do not work as they should, for example the dismissal of Gough Whitlam, the Australian prime minister, by the Governor General John Kerr in 1975. In most cases though I think it’s more often the checks and balances not kicking in when they should rather than the other way round. In the UK this may have allowed Blair to lead the country into the Iraq adventure.

    In Thailand we do have a problem. The checks and balances are far from ideal. We see in America that their Supreme Court can be a powerful balance against a too powerful executive. The Thai judiciary has improved a lot but the real check and balance has resided with the army and palace. The Suchinda coup against Chatchai’s buffet cabinet was a recent example of that power being used. Another, although not official, check and balance is the public disgust and citizens in the street. We saw the power of this in 1992 when Suchinda made a power grab.

    So back to Andrew Marshall’s Thai story. We see a fractured palace reacting against Thaksin especially by his second term. The palace has its own problems. There is no way they can avoid an eventual royal succession, but they know some of the possible scenarios will not have widespread public support. This future brings control of the Privy Council into focus. Thaksin is rolling up the new checks and balances built into the 1997 constitution. Let’s refer to this cable. http://thaicables.wordpress.com/2011/06/23/05bangkok2219-the-thaksinization-of-thailand-impressions-after-three-months/.

    In power, he took full advantage of the new charter’s creation of a strong executive, while distorting, dismantling or delaying the new “watchdog” institutions that were supposed to check and balance that new executive power.

    At the same time we know that Thaksin’s CEO style of governing is all about power being in the hands of one man and his cronies. So from the same cable.

    This is probably a good place to note that Thaksin,s vaunted CEO style of management differs markedly from the model which would have the company listed on the stock exchange, shares traded on the market, stockholders to placate and a board of directors to be responsive to. No, Thaksin,s style is much more like the family-owned private company where the CEO speaks and the lieutenants carry out his will ) much like, say, Shinawatra Corporation used to be while Thaksin was making his billions, or dozens of other Thai conglomerates.

    And following it is.

    And now he runs his cabinet just like that. Among the 35 ministers are Thanong Bidaya, Thaksin,s former banker (and widely rumored to have tipped Thaksin off about the coming baht devaluation when Thanong was Finance Minister in 1997), four former aides, six business friends, one police classmate, one family doctor and only eight MPs. Thaksin today has ably positioned himself to be the only star in the political constellation and could thus well be around for the next eight years or more.

    But not only this, Thaksin has used his money to get involved in the royal succession. I suspect he is also looking at control of the Privy Council and would prefer a much weakened palace as he seems to dislike these checks and balances. From this cable http://thaicables.wordpress.com/2011/06/23/06bangkok3916-whats-thaksin-up-to/

    The Ambassador noted that Thaksin felt he was a rival of the King for the affections of the rural population. Piya agreed, and pointed out how TRT officials had sycophantically received Thaksin on his trips to the North and Northeast, swelling his ego.

    Even so he thinks that his relationship with the king is still good up until he decides to sell Shin Corp. From this cable http://thaicables.wordpress.com/2011/06/23/08bangkok2243-thaksin-predicts-national-unity-government-pardon-life-abroad/.

    Thaksin cited his decision to sell his Shin Corporation conglomerate to Singaporean investment firm Temasek as a key turning point in his relationship with the King. Thaksin claimed he told the King about the sale in an audience prior to a public announcement. On hearing that Thaksin would sell the conglomerate to a foreign entity, the King reportedly stiffened visibly and asked, “To whom?” Thaksin told the Ambassador he had not heard the King’s question clearly and asked, “Pardon?” The King then erupted, loudly and angrily repeating his question. Thaksin told the Ambassador he had never before seen the King behave thusly.

    So back to my flogged horse. Is the reaction of palace and the army before and after 2006 a symptom of a disease caused by Thaksin’s megalomania? Were there any working checks and balances left apart from them. I know the argument against this view is to say another election is the ultimate check and balance, but as we can see in Italy it does need more. In their case, with a similar authoritarian populist prime minister, it takes the services of some brave magistrates.

    (To Andrew and Nich – If you feel that this is too long to be a comment would you consider making it an article instead. It would be a shame to waste the morning’s effort I put into it.)

  11. abc says:

    @DrWill

    So you’re saying it’s ok to burn part of CTW. Because it wasn’t totally burnt down. How about I start burning a section of your house. It should be ok right? Because it did not burn down.

    And it’s not only CTW that’s got burnt (not) down. There were numbers of other buildings and shopping malls, including government’s buildings in many provinces that got burnt down. Check your fact before you post.

    ————————-
    higher education does not mean you are smarter than other people

  12. Ralph Kramden says:

    PPT has a post: thaipoliticalprisoners.wordpress.com/2011/06/23/democrat-party-at-rajaprasong/

    PPT says there were 3000-5000, with the crowd growing by about 1000 later. Pravit at the Nation says 5000. Saksith says 5000. I was there also, and I reckon 5000 is about right.

    But the Bangkok Post first said 17000 and has now upped that to 30000. What’s going on there with the paper that is “the world’s window on Thailand” and the “newspaper you can trust”?

  13. CT says:

    @Peter said: “Interestingly, in Andrew’s account, the King is sort of an elderly bystander, and thus it is still possible for people to respect and accept the King while at the same time not respecting and accepting the actions and views of the Queen.”

    I disagree that the King deserves to be respected and accepted when the Queen is doing the wrong things, Peter. He is the Constitutional Monarch. His primary duty is he must defend democracy and uphold the Constitution which is drafted by the people. Thus, he has the duty of “due diligence” to prevent all this mess from happening. Instead. he chose to do nothing about it, and as thus he is not doing his job properly. More importantly, it is his wife who is making a mess for the country he has the duty to protect. Being that his wife is probably the second most powerful person in the country (at least legally, as evidenced by the Constitution), he is the only one who can stop her, and as a Constitutional Monarch, he has the duty to do everything he can to stop her. Yet he chose to do nothing. Thus he needs to be blamed for failing to do his duty. I used to respect him a lot, but now all my respect to him has gone down the drain. I mean, if the nation is in such turmoil, and the Constitutional Monarch who can stop all this mess chooses to do nothing to solve this mess, what’s the use of having him and wasting taxpayers’ money to feed him?

  14. Luecha Na Malai says:

    I have got to hand it to Dr. Thaksin. He has been compelled to stay outside Thailand for a long while, and yet he has constantly stirred up a state of unrest among Apisit and his cohorts. Might it be true, then, that someone higher up is behind Apisit?

  15. TU says:

    Great work by Andrew M. Marshall. What about translating it into Thai and distribute it in the” Red Shirts villages” in Isan and North. They know already what is going on but will confirm what they know.

    People at The Nation may pretend the cables do not exist, let them continue with their ignorance. Thanong and Suthichai thought readers still believe what they write — no, not anymore.

  16. CT says:

    The part about the power struggle between the Queen and Prince V are fun to read 🙂

  17. Dr. Will says:

    Saksith repeats the canard, “Central World, one of Asia’s biggest shopping malls, burned down,” which only serves to fuel the Democrats supposed trump card against the reds. However, only a portion of the mall was destroyed by the fire, about a third of the huge structure, with smoke damage to the rest. The collapsed section certainly made a dramatic photo op. But, as anyone who has been there knows, Central World did not burn down.

  18. Vichai N says:

    No I don’t think Andrew Marshall’s story is hopelessly long. His build-up of the story is very very good.

    I am expecting that Andrew Marshall would quickly formalize all this into a book. I’ll certainly buy and I have no doubt it would be a world best-seller.

    Congratulations Andrew Marshall. You’re a damn good story teller.

    Somewhere later on in Part II I could almost sense the part when and why the Red Shirts leaders started getting radicalized, violence-inclined and in a hurry to ‘sow hatred’.

  19. Jimmy P. says:

    Wikileaks is not a credible source. It is basically what diplomats say semi-off the record and can constitute anything from a biased opinion to indeed accurate information. Without documented facts to back up the cables, they are essentially the same “he said, she said” we’ve had all along and hardly worth quitting your 14 year job as a journalist for.

    I would also like to ask “Cassandra” why they believe that article they posted is “barking mad.” Is that because you read it and believe the New York Times is lying when they said US organizations plotted to overthrow the Tunisian and Egyptian governments long before the “Arab Spring” started? Or because you simply saw something that runs contra to your own beliefs and dismissed it out of hand? Because there are indeed facts within that article that Marshall really needs to either explain, or he can accept the illegitimacy that comes with propelling such a disingenuous agenda promoted by such disingenuous people.

    I also spotted some documents within the same site directly from the US Senate website that indeed confirms Thaksin is working directly with foreign lobbying firms against his own nation. How about Marshall write about that – where real documents do exist and stop covering “leaked” cables that amount to nothing more than unsubstantiated hearsay?

    Forgive me, but I simply don’t understand what this back-patting, masturbatory celebration is all about. Anyone could find these cables, and all Marshall is doing is pulling a big PR stunt to direct attention toward them and perhaps add some more spin to an already dubious collection of “resources.”

    Hope you understand my skepticism. After all, I’d hate to see one backwards cult-like hierarchy simply be replaced by another in Thailand – but that appears, from the comments I see here, and the political agendas being promoted, to be what’s happening.

  20. tukkae says:

    There is now a funny Twitter Exchange between “zenjounalist” and Thanong on “The Nation”.

    Supposed to be the only hint about today’s publication one can get on their website.