Rather well put.
It is very easy for those outside – especially the idealistic academics- to exhort people to rise up against often mythical oppression.
After all they never have to sufer the consequences.
The sadest thing of course is they (the outsiders) really believe they are doing the right thing, even after the country is thown into turmoil.
My point Greg, is that you are artificially linking two unrelated issues.
Animal rights in Indonesia is not related to human rights in Malaysia. The people that care about these issues are not prioritising one above the other, in any way, shape or form.
The “Malaysia Solution” is problematic in itself, for its own reasons. Malaysia hasn’t signed the Refugee Convention for one. Their human rights record for another, as you have pointed out.
The problem with your argument is that many of the people that are agitating against torture of animals in Indonesian abattoirs are the very same people agitating against the Malaysian solution, ie. they are people that care!
It will be particularly interesting to see the reaction of the chairman and his wife if the people secure the landslide victory that increasingly seems possible. The people will have spoken the chairman will not care about that.
This will no doubt be the single piece of event to explain in itself what had actually happened at high level “off-street” politics at the time leading up to the election. Zooming in at PTP, there are only three possible outcomes:
(i) The Party wins the majority vote, and successfully forms the Government; (ii) The Party wins the majority vote, but is unable to form the Government; and (iii) The Party does not win the majority vote, in which case its role in the Parliament is clear.
The first outcome can only happen if satisfactory “agreements” at the “high level” negotiation are achieved before the EC officially endorses the poll results. This, if happens, will be good for PTP, its elected members, the “invisible hand” and his cronies. Most likely, on-street political movements of the Red Shirts will be curbed.
If (ii), one can interpret that the confrontation between PTP and the conservative power is real. Ironically, this will be a positive outcome for an upward spiral of the Red Shirts and the ICC case lodged by Amsterdam & Peroff, albeit at the cost of progressive deteriorations of the national economic and social well-being.
I was down at Sanam Luang this lunchtime, and a ‘caravan’ of yellow-shirts went past. That area (the market along Atsadang) is a hot-spot of Red-shirts, so I was interested to see the reaction. Nothing; nobody even turned their head. It’s as though the whole yellow-shirt thing has become so irrelevant, they can’t be bothered.
I’ll stop commenting after this to not dominate the discussion.
Some clarification:
(1) The crux of my posting is to ask why the double standards in decision making – one standard for what some Australians deem important (animal rights) against an issue which has broad-based support albeit for different reasons i.e. sending refugees to Malaysia is not a good idea (U.N., Amnesty International, most of ALP, Coalition, civil society groups in Malaysia & Australia, etc).
(2) Perception problem is not the same as being racist.
My friend, a middle aged wealthy Australian economist, believes that it is good economics to have the boat people processed in Malaysia (citing the reasons you gave in the earlier post). He believes that having them in Australia would send the wrong signal and could open the flood gates (as you have raised). He is not a racist. He just perceives this to be a problem.
This is my response to him and to you. Having refugees processed in Australia is not going to open the flood gates to refugees. If you interact with refugees and understand supply and demand – you will know that there are supply side constraints/barriers that stop people from “flooding” Australia. There are natural barriers (Australia’s geographical location) and other barriers (raising the sufficient amount of funds, making contact with the traffickers, the risk of being raped, murdered, sold off as forced labour, prostitution, etc) that stop this.
Australia could be “flooded” technically if it was contiguous with Asia. E.g. South Africa was “flooded” when Zimbabwe went bust – nearly 1 million people. There are lots more example e.g. Syria & Turkey right now. Read this report to get a scale of the issue. This also suggests that the problem Australia faces is minuscule and well within the capability of the government to cope with.
So your concern, just like my friend is misplaced. My friend is not a racist and I don’t think you are too. I just think that you and most Australians probably do not have sufficient information to make an informed decision. Much of this has to do with the partisan nature of Australian politics that does not allow sensible policy making on hot button issues like this. (Re how the refugee issue was used by Coalition & ALP in the run-up to the 2010 general election).
I had suggested to my friend that Australia take a three pronged approach: First – to make the refugee problem a cross-bench issue to avoid scare tactics – e.g. Australia will be flooded; second, accept the boat people that arrives on Australian shore (with necessary processing for national security reasons). This would raise Australia’s standing in the international community & also make good economic sense.
Since resolving the problem at source (stabilising Myanmar, Afghanistan, Sri Lanka etc) are long term challenges, the third strategy is to coordinate with ASEAN, and other nations linked to trafficking (either as source or transition point)- to stop trafficking. This is of course medium term and difficult effort but surely more humane and intelligent, I would argue.
“and even forget the pro-royalist slant, the PAD needs a Thaksin government to be relevant.”
The PAD has been crippled since last year by infighting, and many have left the PAD for good. The PAD presently does not seem to get any support from the military anymore, and much what has been said during the past months on the stages against the Democrat Party and the military will prevent them from reshaping their previous alliance.
If you compare the scenery behind the stage of the PAD’s previous incarnations, with visitors of all powerful sectors of society, and today, where there is almost nobody behind the stage, is quite telling. As to financing – Sondhi has still money left, and Santi Asoke, which is the driving force behind the Thai Patriot Network, is a very wealthy sect, and quite capable of funding the posters, etc.
Don’t forget that nowadays many Red Shirts have installed and watch ASTV, to monitor the views of their ideological opponents. đŸ˜‰
Times have moved on now. If there is another pro Thaksin government, the establishment has other ways set up already to deal with the issue – the PAD partnership was anyhow born more out of necessity than through real friendship. I would suggest to visit the PAD encampment, and spend some time talking with the people there – you may occasionally hear some surprising views, off the stage.
Thailand’s future will be determined by all the secret deals and coat-turning going on, and the weightiest factor determining who gets the better bargain will be the election results:…
So was it really worth almost 100 lives, mostly innocent, in encouraging the UDD leaders and Thaksin with their fake pro-democracy rhetoric? Isn’t it strange how it’s rarely the leaders, the academics or the intellectuals that are the victims. Yet again it’s the poor misled to their deaths.
… I think that any claim that PAD is irrelevant is premature.
I have to agree with Ralph here. Forget the nationalism about ancient Khmer temples and border demarcation, and even forget the pro-royalist slant, the PAD needs a Thaksin government to be relevant.
If Phue Thai win and stay in for a year or so, it will be interesting to see if some of the red-wearing left are clothed in yellow again. One can almost sense some embarrassment already. Red faces rather than red shirts.
Do your often fantasize about another dictator to be that will do away with Than Shwe, then might promote democracy through Daw Aung San Suu Kyi or better NLD, or your fantasy like many here do not go beyond ending Than Shwe regime?
Too bad the double down is not for the direct benefit to the citizenry, as usual.
@ Greg Lopez Hence, boat people will always be there unless you resolve the problem at its source.
…
So, your point that no one will make the journey to Australia is wrong.
If the scheme is implemented, anyone who makes the boat journey to Australian territory will be sent to Malaysia. All those comtemplating such a journey will quickly learn that is useless for their cause to make such a journey, and the practice will quickly stop. Who would pay a people smuggler big money to take them on such a dangerous journey, when they know that it is useless to do so? Refugee agencies can then run a fair and humane practice of selecting those refugees in camps overseas who are most deserving of a place in Australia’s refugee intake. Rather than the alternative of having those with the best connections, best selection of people smuggler and most money, being settled here.
Also, what are the numbers that make it to Australia? Is it really such a big problem.
That is not the point for 2 reasons: firstly if Australia does implement such a system as you are suggesting, the numbers arriving by boat will skyrocket. Secondly, and more importantly, it is inhumane to run a system that relies on people paying smugglers large sums of money, to take them on overcrowded, leaky boats across dangerous oceans. It is a system that does not suit the most desperate, it is a system that favours the wealthy and those with the best contacts. It is far better to have a system where Australia can decide a fair number of people to accept (and I personally have no problem with the current allocated number being greatly expanded) and then allow refugee agencies to select the most deserving people to fill that quota.
(By the way, you do realise that ‘boat people’ is a bit of a misnomer anyway? Most unauthorised boat arrivals have done the majority of their journey by air. They fly from their home countries to Malaysia and Indonesia. It is only the last bit of their jouney that is by boat – after they have destroyed all their documents.)
I think the problem with refugees is a perception problem i.e. the perception of some Australians about them.
Why don’t you just spell it right out the way so many critics do (such as the one I just heard on the radio): “Australians are racists!”.
I do wish people would realise that supporting the the refugee boat trade does NOT automatically make you a fair and humane person (and therefore entitled to hurl abusive names at their opponents). It is not a fair and humane practice.
I suspect, and in all likelihood The Nation knows more than we do, that the old men are too tired for another round. Thailand’s future will be determined by all the secret deals and coat-turning going on, and the weightiest factor determining who gets the better bargain will be the election results: a Clayton’s democracy, but better than no democracy at all. And we all know who excels at stitching deals together! As Thomas Durfey once said:
Lean virtue decays whilst interest sways,
The ill-genius of the nation.
He understood 17th century England, and would have understood “Thainess” as well.
SteveCM’s question regarding PAD’s financing is relevant. One could also ask about Chuwit’s spending. He seems to have more posters in Bangkok than anyone else and has been swinging through the country. Yes, he made lots from sudsy baths, but why is he spending it all on becoming a small part of opposition (his campaign plea). Perhaps he believes he can recoup if he is part of a coalition government, if elected. But it does seem a huge investment….
Back to PAD. Their current campaigns are significant and they are seemingly well-funded. Having visited the PAD demonstration and march yesterday, from UNESCO and heading into the city on Sukhumvit, I think that any claim that PAD is irrelevant is premature.
What seems to be happening is a realignment of PAD and the usual factionalism of political movements. The New Politics Party is irrelevant, but not PAD and its feet on the street.
When I went to the rally yesterday (by chance, having been in a long PAD-induced traffic jam and deciding to see the rally), I expected the usual old ladies and Santi Asoke acolytes. There was a much more varied crowd, with many younger people including students. In the area they rallied it was difficult to get an estimate of the crowd, but it was perhaps 3000 to 5000. Interestingly, the rally was ostensibly about Cambodia and Thai territory but the real point was the Vote No campaign. Everyone seemed to be there for this campaign.
PAD are not irrelevant because a Pheu Thai election victory will re-energize PAD as an anti-Thaksin movement. It may not be exactly the Sondhi Lim PAD of the past, but it will be important for any movement to battle the “Thaksin regime.” Kaewsan and Tul working against Yingluck is just the beginning of this forthcoming struggle. The military and the Democrat Party may have taken much of the PAD ground in the sense of being self-proclaimed protectors of the monarchy and in opposing red shirts, but PAD – or its supporters, at least – are likely to be important in any strategy to undo a Pheu Thai election victory (if it gets to that).
I suspect that Prayuth’s attacks on ASTV and Sondhi are a part of the realignment and what might be a struggle for “ownership” of PAD. I’d simply say: don’t write them off yet. The military may be critical but I imagine that there is still much cooperation and funding going on. It seems that they will be useful again.
Maybe this won’t get printed, Maybe New Mandala is worried about the Thai Embassy giving ‘Thai Studies’ money/honey to someone more compliant – again. Let’s see…
There isn’t any mystery about ‘the invisible hand’, yet people pussy-foot around it for fear of a lese-majeste reprisal – this being Thailand where truth counts for little and integrity counts for even less.
The ‘invisible hand’ is obvious code for the chairman and his wife, and it is invisible because they like to maintain the pretence that they don;t get involved in politics, a lie which has worn so thin that surely only the most determinedly delusional people in Thailand still pretend to believe it.
Usually, the ‘invisible hand’ is enclosed in a general’s sock, though there is no shortage of other obsequious socks for the chairman to use, or which act independently along lines they believe he would approve of or has given the nod to.
The network has been built over decades, it works well but it only works well because the other hand has been propagandising a a largely unintelligent population to treat every word from the chairman as holy script and to instill the notion that he is a good person.
But ‘ta sawaang’ is gradually bringing that era to a well overdue close. The chairman would do well to meditate on an increasingly common perception that his behaviour is brining his institution into disrepute.
It will be particularly interesting to see the reaction of the chairman and his wife if the people secure the landslide victory that increasingly seems possible. The people will have spoken the chairman will not care about that. Again.
Thais will have to work out whether they will accept political meddling, interference and Machiavellian plotting from the ‘above politics’ chairman again this time. Frankly, if they choose to do that, I believe it will be a poetic case of ‘som nam na’.
The Thai ‘patronage system’ which is the antithesis of all things democratic is the vehicle to which those who are seen as ‘invisible hands’ continue to undermine Thai society and its progress forward.
The system is highly complex and is widespread across all social classes in the kingdom. From the lower classes through to the high elites the system plays its role of paying tribute to those above with wealth, influence and power.
It is not about ‘ invisibility’ as this is a word is used only to skirt the truth and avoid naming names. Its about the ‘accountability’ of these influential people and their illegal activities. They are highly connected throughout all spheres of political and economic activity running their businesses with impunity.
This ‘clique’ like behavior is most evident in places like ‘Phuket’ where corruption and scams by highly influential people continue unabated. They have the protection of not only the regional politicians but also security forces as each group has its ‘patron’ who receives a cut of the ‘corrupted’ money that is demanded up the chain.
Thai patrons own the media and entertainment channels they have family members and cronies within government and economic circles. They are revered and treated with the highest respect even though they in reality are crooks.
Thai democracy is but a facade that hides the reality of a cancerous system that in many provinces runs like the mafia.
The vast majority of Thai people know this is how society runs as it has evolved this way. There are very few though that are willing to stand up and tell it like it is as in the past there have been those brave Thais who have fought for truth and tried to expose the perpetrators but ended up dead or in prison.
The internet is a powerful tool one in which the Thai patronage system can not fully control. One day this highly secretive yet destructive system of accepted bribery will fall and all Thais will come to know what they once revered as being shameful and wrong.
‘A bitter end’ is increasingly looking to be the regime’s chosen exit strategy, come hell or high water. They don’t give a damn about the price being paid by the citizenry, Bamar or ethnic.
RY,
Who will remove Than Shwe but his own men? There is no fail safe measure however much he tried to guarantee his own golden parachute retirement plan. More likely to be ejected without a parachute in the end, or the gold will prove too heavy for it to open.
And forget third party superpower guarantee. It’s not so much the ceasefire as the lack of political will to seek peaceful and durable political solutions. Those who rule by the sword will fall by the sword.
To #7
After umpteenth times on Than Shwe despicable knavery that have proven to be extremely successful due to the support The regime has commanded, one might like to reexamine why Daw Aung San Suu has neither characteristics nor support ever to succeed.
And so goes the major ethnic minorities desire for autonomy.
The inherent support of, Daw Aung San Suu Kyi as well as NLD by the west has doomed them for failure.
You will rather see a foreign intervention to ensure WHAT, another failure?
Should not the degree of foreign intervention as well as Than Shwe regime repressions that made the citizenry plight doubly onerous, be characterized for the it true uselessness, carelessness and set back to democracy in Myanmar as well as support that does not extend beyond the realm of NLD, DASSK and their supporters, a definite minority be made known?
You stated:
“I do think Nick learned something reporting on the riots, though he is struggling with how to deal with it and reconcile that with the peaceful demonstration he thought it was going to be.”
Don’t patronize me, and don’t presume, please.
After having been in the middle of most violent incidents of the past 5 years, i knew very well what to expect. And i have been running around since the military coup warning of such an incident, and been called mad, paranoid and similar niceties by people that have difficulties to accept Thailand’s realities.
I do not “struggle to deal with it”. I do not need to “reconcile” with anything. Things turned as i feared they will turn, and that’s it. I would have preferred to have been wrong. I wasn’t.
I have never called the Red Shirts an entirely peaceful movement, if you accuse of such a stupidity, then i ask you to find supporting evidence in my articles, books or interviews, or retract this accusation.
I have shown you here enough evidence that i have photographed and written about violence committed by Red Shirts, you have shown nothing other than empty and ill-mannered accusations.
I think it’s part of the con………..Their strategy is to foist off the belief that what they do in plain sight is actually the work of he or she or it which cannot be criticized
Now, the problem with your analysis is that, if that’s the case usually people that has been used as part of the con would came out and complain about them being use as a tool. However, we never see people in question ever complain about that, but what do we get, the person daughter came out and beg the public to give her dad more air time. Do you think they got nothing to do with that?
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Thailand’s invisible hand
Les Abbey – 13
Rather well put.
It is very easy for those outside – especially the idealistic academics- to exhort people to rise up against often mythical oppression.
After all they never have to sufer the consequences.
The sadest thing of course is they (the outsiders) really believe they are doing the right thing, even after the country is thown into turmoil.
Australians, cattles, refugees and Four Corners
My point Greg, is that you are artificially linking two unrelated issues.
Animal rights in Indonesia is not related to human rights in Malaysia. The people that care about these issues are not prioritising one above the other, in any way, shape or form.
The “Malaysia Solution” is problematic in itself, for its own reasons. Malaysia hasn’t signed the Refugee Convention for one. Their human rights record for another, as you have pointed out.
The problem with your argument is that many of the people that are agitating against torture of animals in Indonesian abattoirs are the very same people agitating against the Malaysian solution, ie. they are people that care!
Thailand’s invisible hand
Sarong #11
This will no doubt be the single piece of event to explain in itself what had actually happened at high level “off-street” politics at the time leading up to the election. Zooming in at PTP, there are only three possible outcomes:
(i) The Party wins the majority vote, and successfully forms the Government; (ii) The Party wins the majority vote, but is unable to form the Government; and (iii) The Party does not win the majority vote, in which case its role in the Parliament is clear.
The first outcome can only happen if satisfactory “agreements” at the “high level” negotiation are achieved before the EC officially endorses the poll results. This, if happens, will be good for PTP, its elected members, the “invisible hand” and his cronies. Most likely, on-street political movements of the Red Shirts will be curbed.
If (ii), one can interpret that the confrontation between PTP and the conservative power is real. Ironically, this will be a positive outcome for an upward spiral of the Red Shirts and the ICC case lodged by Amsterdam & Peroff, albeit at the cost of progressive deteriorations of the national economic and social well-being.
Chuvit on the streets
I was down at Sanam Luang this lunchtime, and a ‘caravan’ of yellow-shirts went past. That area (the market along Atsadang) is a hot-spot of Red-shirts, so I was interested to see the reaction. Nothing; nobody even turned their head. It’s as though the whole yellow-shirt thing has become so irrelevant, they can’t be bothered.
Australians, cattles, refugees and Four Corners
@ Naiharn #9
I’ll stop commenting after this to not dominate the discussion.
Some clarification:
(1) The crux of my posting is to ask why the double standards in decision making – one standard for what some Australians deem important (animal rights) against an issue which has broad-based support albeit for different reasons i.e. sending refugees to Malaysia is not a good idea (U.N., Amnesty International, most of ALP, Coalition, civil society groups in Malaysia & Australia, etc).
(2) Perception problem is not the same as being racist.
My friend, a middle aged wealthy Australian economist, believes that it is good economics to have the boat people processed in Malaysia (citing the reasons you gave in the earlier post). He believes that having them in Australia would send the wrong signal and could open the flood gates (as you have raised). He is not a racist. He just perceives this to be a problem.
This is my response to him and to you. Having refugees processed in Australia is not going to open the flood gates to refugees. If you interact with refugees and understand supply and demand – you will know that there are supply side constraints/barriers that stop people from “flooding” Australia. There are natural barriers (Australia’s geographical location) and other barriers (raising the sufficient amount of funds, making contact with the traffickers, the risk of being raped, murdered, sold off as forced labour, prostitution, etc) that stop this.
Australia could be “flooded” technically if it was contiguous with Asia. E.g. South Africa was “flooded” when Zimbabwe went bust – nearly 1 million people. There are lots more example e.g. Syria & Turkey right now. Read this report to get a scale of the issue. This also suggests that the problem Australia faces is minuscule and well within the capability of the government to cope with.
So your concern, just like my friend is misplaced. My friend is not a racist and I don’t think you are too. I just think that you and most Australians probably do not have sufficient information to make an informed decision. Much of this has to do with the partisan nature of Australian politics that does not allow sensible policy making on hot button issues like this. (Re how the refugee issue was used by Coalition & ALP in the run-up to the 2010 general election).
I had suggested to my friend that Australia take a three pronged approach: First – to make the refugee problem a cross-bench issue to avoid scare tactics – e.g. Australia will be flooded; second, accept the boat people that arrives on Australian shore (with necessary processing for national security reasons). This would raise Australia’s standing in the international community & also make good economic sense.
Since resolving the problem at source (stabilising Myanmar, Afghanistan, Sri Lanka etc) are long term challenges, the third strategy is to coordinate with ASEAN, and other nations linked to trafficking (either as source or transition point)- to stop trafficking. This is of course medium term and difficult effort but surely more humane and intelligent, I would argue.
Chuvit on the streets
“and even forget the pro-royalist slant, the PAD needs a Thaksin government to be relevant.”
The PAD has been crippled since last year by infighting, and many have left the PAD for good. The PAD presently does not seem to get any support from the military anymore, and much what has been said during the past months on the stages against the Democrat Party and the military will prevent them from reshaping their previous alliance.
If you compare the scenery behind the stage of the PAD’s previous incarnations, with visitors of all powerful sectors of society, and today, where there is almost nobody behind the stage, is quite telling. As to financing – Sondhi has still money left, and Santi Asoke, which is the driving force behind the Thai Patriot Network, is a very wealthy sect, and quite capable of funding the posters, etc.
Don’t forget that nowadays many Red Shirts have installed and watch ASTV, to monitor the views of their ideological opponents. đŸ˜‰
Times have moved on now. If there is another pro Thaksin government, the establishment has other ways set up already to deal with the issue – the PAD partnership was anyhow born more out of necessity than through real friendship. I would suggest to visit the PAD encampment, and spend some time talking with the people there – you may occasionally hear some surprising views, off the stage.
New Mandala turns five!
Great job and a very happy birthday to NM.
Thailand’s invisible hand
RN England – 12
Thailand’s future will be determined by all the secret deals and coat-turning going on, and the weightiest factor determining who gets the better bargain will be the election results:…
So was it really worth almost 100 lives, mostly innocent, in encouraging the UDD leaders and Thaksin with their fake pro-democracy rhetoric? Isn’t it strange how it’s rarely the leaders, the academics or the intellectuals that are the victims. Yet again it’s the poor misled to their deaths.
Chuvit on the streets
Ralph Kramden – 42
… I think that any claim that PAD is irrelevant is premature.
I have to agree with Ralph here. Forget the nationalism about ancient Khmer temples and border demarcation, and even forget the pro-royalist slant, the PAD needs a Thaksin government to be relevant.
If Phue Thai win and stay in for a year or so, it will be interesting to see if some of the red-wearing left are clothed in yellow again. One can almost sense some embarrassment already. Red faces rather than red shirts.
War in Kachin State
Ko Moe Aung
A Double down fantasy, hmm
Do your often fantasize about another dictator to be that will do away with Than Shwe, then might promote democracy through Daw Aung San Suu Kyi or better NLD, or your fantasy like many here do not go beyond ending Than Shwe regime?
Too bad the double down is not for the direct benefit to the citizenry, as usual.
Australians, cattles, refugees and Four Corners
@ Greg Lopez Hence, boat people will always be there unless you resolve the problem at its source.
…
So, your point that no one will make the journey to Australia is wrong.
If the scheme is implemented, anyone who makes the boat journey to Australian territory will be sent to Malaysia. All those comtemplating such a journey will quickly learn that is useless for their cause to make such a journey, and the practice will quickly stop. Who would pay a people smuggler big money to take them on such a dangerous journey, when they know that it is useless to do so? Refugee agencies can then run a fair and humane practice of selecting those refugees in camps overseas who are most deserving of a place in Australia’s refugee intake. Rather than the alternative of having those with the best connections, best selection of people smuggler and most money, being settled here.
Also, what are the numbers that make it to Australia? Is it really such a big problem.
That is not the point for 2 reasons: firstly if Australia does implement such a system as you are suggesting, the numbers arriving by boat will skyrocket. Secondly, and more importantly, it is inhumane to run a system that relies on people paying smugglers large sums of money, to take them on overcrowded, leaky boats across dangerous oceans. It is a system that does not suit the most desperate, it is a system that favours the wealthy and those with the best contacts. It is far better to have a system where Australia can decide a fair number of people to accept (and I personally have no problem with the current allocated number being greatly expanded) and then allow refugee agencies to select the most deserving people to fill that quota.
(By the way, you do realise that ‘boat people’ is a bit of a misnomer anyway? Most unauthorised boat arrivals have done the majority of their journey by air. They fly from their home countries to Malaysia and Indonesia. It is only the last bit of their jouney that is by boat – after they have destroyed all their documents.)
I think the problem with refugees is a perception problem i.e. the perception of some Australians about them.
Why don’t you just spell it right out the way so many critics do (such as the one I just heard on the radio): “Australians are racists!”.
I do wish people would realise that supporting the the refugee boat trade does NOT automatically make you a fair and humane person (and therefore entitled to hurl abusive names at their opponents). It is not a fair and humane practice.
Thailand’s invisible hand
I suspect, and in all likelihood The Nation knows more than we do, that the old men are too tired for another round. Thailand’s future will be determined by all the secret deals and coat-turning going on, and the weightiest factor determining who gets the better bargain will be the election results: a Clayton’s democracy, but better than no democracy at all. And we all know who excels at stitching deals together! As Thomas Durfey once said:
Lean virtue decays whilst interest sways,
The ill-genius of the nation.
He understood 17th century England, and would have understood “Thainess” as well.
New Mandala turns five!
Many congratulations! Thank you for many innovations in the past year. NM continues to improve. Keep it going.
Chuvit on the streets
SteveCM’s question regarding PAD’s financing is relevant. One could also ask about Chuwit’s spending. He seems to have more posters in Bangkok than anyone else and has been swinging through the country. Yes, he made lots from sudsy baths, but why is he spending it all on becoming a small part of opposition (his campaign plea). Perhaps he believes he can recoup if he is part of a coalition government, if elected. But it does seem a huge investment….
Back to PAD. Their current campaigns are significant and they are seemingly well-funded. Having visited the PAD demonstration and march yesterday, from UNESCO and heading into the city on Sukhumvit, I think that any claim that PAD is irrelevant is premature.
What seems to be happening is a realignment of PAD and the usual factionalism of political movements. The New Politics Party is irrelevant, but not PAD and its feet on the street.
When I went to the rally yesterday (by chance, having been in a long PAD-induced traffic jam and deciding to see the rally), I expected the usual old ladies and Santi Asoke acolytes. There was a much more varied crowd, with many younger people including students. In the area they rallied it was difficult to get an estimate of the crowd, but it was perhaps 3000 to 5000. Interestingly, the rally was ostensibly about Cambodia and Thai territory but the real point was the Vote No campaign. Everyone seemed to be there for this campaign.
PAD are not irrelevant because a Pheu Thai election victory will re-energize PAD as an anti-Thaksin movement. It may not be exactly the Sondhi Lim PAD of the past, but it will be important for any movement to battle the “Thaksin regime.” Kaewsan and Tul working against Yingluck is just the beginning of this forthcoming struggle. The military and the Democrat Party may have taken much of the PAD ground in the sense of being self-proclaimed protectors of the monarchy and in opposing red shirts, but PAD – or its supporters, at least – are likely to be important in any strategy to undo a Pheu Thai election victory (if it gets to that).
I suspect that Prayuth’s attacks on ASTV and Sondhi are a part of the realignment and what might be a struggle for “ownership” of PAD. I’d simply say: don’t write them off yet. The military may be critical but I imagine that there is still much cooperation and funding going on. It seems that they will be useful again.
Thailand’s invisible hand
Maybe this won’t get printed, Maybe New Mandala is worried about the Thai Embassy giving ‘Thai Studies’ money/honey to someone more compliant – again. Let’s see…
There isn’t any mystery about ‘the invisible hand’, yet people pussy-foot around it for fear of a lese-majeste reprisal – this being Thailand where truth counts for little and integrity counts for even less.
The ‘invisible hand’ is obvious code for the chairman and his wife, and it is invisible because they like to maintain the pretence that they don;t get involved in politics, a lie which has worn so thin that surely only the most determinedly delusional people in Thailand still pretend to believe it.
Usually, the ‘invisible hand’ is enclosed in a general’s sock, though there is no shortage of other obsequious socks for the chairman to use, or which act independently along lines they believe he would approve of or has given the nod to.
The network has been built over decades, it works well but it only works well because the other hand has been propagandising a a largely unintelligent population to treat every word from the chairman as holy script and to instill the notion that he is a good person.
But ‘ta sawaang’ is gradually bringing that era to a well overdue close. The chairman would do well to meditate on an increasingly common perception that his behaviour is brining his institution into disrepute.
It will be particularly interesting to see the reaction of the chairman and his wife if the people secure the landslide victory that increasingly seems possible. The people will have spoken the chairman will not care about that. Again.
Thais will have to work out whether they will accept political meddling, interference and Machiavellian plotting from the ‘above politics’ chairman again this time. Frankly, if they choose to do that, I believe it will be a poetic case of ‘som nam na’.
Thailand’s invisible hand
The Thai ‘patronage system’ which is the antithesis of all things democratic is the vehicle to which those who are seen as ‘invisible hands’ continue to undermine Thai society and its progress forward.
The system is highly complex and is widespread across all social classes in the kingdom. From the lower classes through to the high elites the system plays its role of paying tribute to those above with wealth, influence and power.
It is not about ‘ invisibility’ as this is a word is used only to skirt the truth and avoid naming names. Its about the ‘accountability’ of these influential people and their illegal activities. They are highly connected throughout all spheres of political and economic activity running their businesses with impunity.
This ‘clique’ like behavior is most evident in places like ‘Phuket’ where corruption and scams by highly influential people continue unabated. They have the protection of not only the regional politicians but also security forces as each group has its ‘patron’ who receives a cut of the ‘corrupted’ money that is demanded up the chain.
Thai patrons own the media and entertainment channels they have family members and cronies within government and economic circles. They are revered and treated with the highest respect even though they in reality are crooks.
Thai democracy is but a facade that hides the reality of a cancerous system that in many provinces runs like the mafia.
The vast majority of Thai people know this is how society runs as it has evolved this way. There are very few though that are willing to stand up and tell it like it is as in the past there have been those brave Thais who have fought for truth and tried to expose the perpetrators but ended up dead or in prison.
The internet is a powerful tool one in which the Thai patronage system can not fully control. One day this highly secretive yet destructive system of accepted bribery will fall and all Thais will come to know what they once revered as being shameful and wrong.
War in Kachin State
plan B,
‘A bitter end’ is increasingly looking to be the regime’s chosen exit strategy, come hell or high water. They don’t give a damn about the price being paid by the citizenry, Bamar or ethnic.
RY,
Who will remove Than Shwe but his own men? There is no fail safe measure however much he tried to guarantee his own golden parachute retirement plan. More likely to be ejected without a parachute in the end, or the gold will prove too heavy for it to open.
And forget third party superpower guarantee. It’s not so much the ceasefire as the lack of political will to seek peaceful and durable political solutions. Those who rule by the sword will fall by the sword.
War in Kachin State
To #7
After umpteenth times on Than Shwe despicable knavery that have proven to be extremely successful due to the support The regime has commanded, one might like to reexamine why Daw Aung San Suu has neither characteristics nor support ever to succeed.
And so goes the major ethnic minorities desire for autonomy.
The inherent support of, Daw Aung San Suu Kyi as well as NLD by the west has doomed them for failure.
You will rather see a foreign intervention to ensure WHAT, another failure?
Should not the degree of foreign intervention as well as Than Shwe regime repressions that made the citizenry plight doubly onerous, be characterized for the it true uselessness, carelessness and set back to democracy in Myanmar as well as support that does not extend beyond the realm of NLD, DASSK and their supporters, a definite minority be made known?
Chuvit on the streets
“John Smith”:
You stated:
“I do think Nick learned something reporting on the riots, though he is struggling with how to deal with it and reconcile that with the peaceful demonstration he thought it was going to be.”
Don’t patronize me, and don’t presume, please.
After having been in the middle of most violent incidents of the past 5 years, i knew very well what to expect. And i have been running around since the military coup warning of such an incident, and been called mad, paranoid and similar niceties by people that have difficulties to accept Thailand’s realities.
I do not “struggle to deal with it”. I do not need to “reconcile” with anything. Things turned as i feared they will turn, and that’s it. I would have preferred to have been wrong. I wasn’t.
I have never called the Red Shirts an entirely peaceful movement, if you accuse of such a stupidity, then i ask you to find supporting evidence in my articles, books or interviews, or retract this accusation.
I have shown you here enough evidence that i have photographed and written about violence committed by Red Shirts, you have shown nothing other than empty and ill-mannered accusations.
Thailand’s invisible hand
john francis lee – 8
I think it’s part of the con………..Their strategy is to foist off the belief that what they do in plain sight is actually the work of he or she or it which cannot be criticized
Now, the problem with your analysis is that, if that’s the case usually people that has been used as part of the con would came out and complain about them being use as a tool. However, we never see people in question ever complain about that, but what do we get, the person daughter came out and beg the public to give her dad more air time. Do you think they got nothing to do with that?