#41
I’m looking at a full car transporter of imported quality motors. BMW, Audi, Nissan, poshe. Several softtopped sports models. Now we all know that this business operates in a perpetual grey area in which some government officials take regular pay-offs, and just occasionally they throw an impoundment bone to the media gutter.
So they are opening a new imported car delership. What splendid timing! Back in the last lot of elections I saw 3 transporter loads of Porsches arrive.
Frankly, I think you New Mandala folks greatly underestimate the ability of Thaksin to win over certain crucial amaat with financial inducements. Amaat have lived with Thaksin before, and they will again. Thaksin is undoubtedly amaat himself. The pakama stuff is just political posturing. Sure he has pissed some key people off big time with his relentless efforts to monopolise anything profitable that moves, but their anger really reflects the reality that they are unhappy with him moving in on their time-honored turf.
Against that background it’s obvious that Thaksin just treats the redshirts as a means to get what he wants, and he doesn’t begrudge making a few of them slightly rich or putting a load more in his debt along the way. They think they are exploiting him, but he is far more experienced in exploitation than they are.This means that nothing really meaningful will come from either a Shinawatra government or a government lead by his opponents. That has been the way ever since 1932 and nothing has really changed. The only real difference is that the general population are now much more subject to violence and the dire economic consequences of such crass local populism. The object is supposed to be to topple the amaat, but it would probably be more accate to view it as twisting their arms into accepting the Shinawatras as the country’s top economic dogs. However, they do stand to be recompensed for their loss of turf.
It’s already a certainty that NM readers will soon be very disillusioned by any likely election result or coup scenario.
Then again it could be unhealthy for those doing the vandalizing. I remember hearing a story about an election incident many many years ago in a province very close to Bangkok.
This is what I remember of the story, but maybe someone who was around at the time could correct it if it has morphed during the retelling.
Two boys were caught defacing a poster of the incumbent MP. Now this MP was a man of influence in his area and being an ex-policeman, the local police dropped the boys off at the MP’s compound. Only one of the boys survived the beating.
Does anyone else remember this story? The person who told me is no longer with us.
You will not be surprised if you understand the feeling of relatives and friends of those who were killed, injured, or imprisoned because of Abhisit government.
It has not just happened. It happens, even in the outskirt area of Bangkok, to the posters of the one who cannot be named – but you know who.
But why the imbalance between Democrat and Pheua Thai posters being vandalised ? Given the “passions” displayed by both sides in the past one might have expect equal vandalism against Yingluk’s pictures. Is it because the Democrats are now the common enemy of PT and PAD as detailed by BP http://asiancorrespondent.com/author/bangkokpundit ?
Maybe we should not assume all the vandalism of Abhisit’s face is by UDD supporters.
In looking at the current state of political play in Thailand we overlook small details. it is sometimes small detauils that matter. Many English language discussion sites are fixated with the forthcoming elections as if it were an even contest between two (uneven) players. This ignores the fact that over the past five years most of the more competent political opponents have either been failed by the courts and on a five year ban which continues until middle of next year, or imprisoned for trifling matters or fabricated legal cases. But it is the street talk, the body language, the media and elite doublespeak, and the various ambiguities that we should observe closely. As in chaos theory, small nuances can lead to massive implications, rendering outcomes and long-term political predictions impossible. Who wins the elections is increasingly less important than who will not lose. We know that the knives are out for Phue Thai to fail through discrediting the red shirts and opposition members of parliament before the election takes place. The “old tricks” of the amaat worked well last two times, but this time the amaat regime has to be a little more wary given its appalling human rights record. The amaat/royalists are riding high again, just as they did pre-TRT 2001, but they are extremely nervous.
Makawan Bridge bomb last week in front of PAD group was planted to create the start of chaos. PAD has warned to expect something to happen before the 3rd July. The “multicolours” (aka “Yellow”) are trying to find basis to fail Yingluck (raising anything and everything, from an unregistered marriage to Thaksin’s early financial dealings). The ludicrous “destroying Monarchy” (Lom Jao) Mind Map of Sansern’s has now been reinvigorated from last year. Dr Sutachai Yinprasert threatened legal action against Sansern, Abhisit and Suthep over the fabrication of this “map” – which involves his name among many others. Sansern backed down in March saying that it was indeed fabricated and involving many hands but comes out again now saying that it is “real” after all! “About face” positioning is nothing to the amaat and their political dependents. Sutachai’s book “A historical stream of democracy in Thailand” (saithaan’prawatsaat prachaa’thipatai’thai) which came out in 2009 needs translating/reviewing for readers (Craig?).
Surachai “Sae Dan”, currently in prison, has now been charged with another case of LM from an incident in the north; he says that there is indeed a serious attempt to try and fail the elections and that we should not be surprised because the whole thing was planned way back. But even assuming elections go ahead, it will be hard for the democracy movement to reclaim terra firma if Phue Thai lose (even they are shown to have a decent lead right now) because they will have no legitimate basis to cry foul, unless of course they can prove (and to whom?) that there was election cheating and ballot rigging. An excess of 6.2 million ballot papers have been printed and of course overseas voting already closed…
Another danger is that by coming out now in electioneering mode all regional red shirt leaders have exposed themselves to the regime. They are now visible. An influential “hand” has now given the nod that Phue Thai should be failed; the army and their judicial partners will handle that matter in due course. Frankly, given this scenario, it may take many years again before the red shirt/pro-democracy movement can move the democratic process forward. The amaat must surely not lose the elections; this is part of a game plan set way back. It follows chaos theory and the continuing ripples from the centre. The elections are staged by the amaat regime to show to the world that the regime is serious about electoral democracy. The stakes are indeed dangerously high. Anything can, and probably will happen.
“However, does this really solve anything for the amart? ”
I really don’t care about the amaat. Does this really solve anything for the people of Thailand.
Five years ago the Seven Dwarves (Prem, Sarayut, et al. you name them) locked Dracula in his coffin, but he morphed in his undead sleep therein into Snow White, and now on awakening will pickup right where he/she/it/they left off.
If the dwarves and their backers had foregone the tracked vehicles and the smash and grab at power and stuck to politics as they should have Thaksin would be being voted out by now, and good riddance to bad rubbish, everyone would be saying.
But the problem is, you see, that they cannot play politics because their interests are diametrically opposed to those of the people of Thailand, so they can never be elected, so they always must coup.
Most businesses pay off the police, regardless or whether they are operating in the legal grey area or not; even my barber pays the police 4,000/month for [protection?]…
Ricardo I have been in business here in Thailand for many years. Always I have found that bribes are paid because of some infringement of rules or laws, or because a businessman want the police to do something for them, (like their job;-)
If you barber is paying protection money, as in if he doesn’t pay he gets hurt, then that is very bad. More likely you will find he is doing something that isn’t strictly legal and the police are taking their share.
The shame is the reform of the Thai police force hasn’t happened as promised and this I suspect shows their power in politics.
“It says a lot about Thai politics that the nutter who admits his past activities in prostitution and bribery is widely perceived as the most honest candidate thereby.”
Presumably that is because he IS amongst the most honest. Can’t say I exactly find that half-baked act particularly inspiring, however. It will be decades, if ever, before a mature election campaign is possible here. And judging by recent electoral fiascos in the USA and the UK, there is precious little even half-baked democracy in the wider ‘modern’ world anyway.
Love his posters but Chuwit looks like he needs a Xanax.
A lot of people write him off because of his eccentricities but with the Dems and PT looking so similar now – populist policies, war on drugs, etc. – I wouldn’t be surprised if he does get a seat in Parliament. A number of my friends (late 20s, urbanites, fed up with politics) have said they will vote for him (although whether that will happen come election day…)
@ LesAbbey – Even so it should be remembered he isn’t a very nice guy. If you have been paying off the police the chances are you are crook…
I remember when was running for governer of BKK and punched that interviewer (whose name escapes me) for saying he wasn’t manly, but that second statement is ridiculous. Most businesses pay off the police, regardless or whether they are operating in the legal grey area or not; even my barber pays the police 4,000/month for [protection?]…
That’s most interesting. My mom had to choose which citizenship. Then again that was a long time ago. Perhaps things are different today, perhaps there’s a difference between male vs female?
Not a bad review, but not entirely free of errors.
1. Around 60,000 Australians served in South Vietnam, rather more than the number of Thai troops deployed.
2. The Black Panther Division did not supplement the Queen’s Cobra Regiment in 1968, it replaced it.
3. On its return to Thailand in 1971, the Black Panther Division became the 9th Infantry Division, based in Kanchanaburi. The Vietnam War Memorial was erected at the entrance to the base. It was not “tucked away” in embarrasment at a mistaken campaign.
4. The Thai people tend to forget most of their wars, not just the one in South Vietnam. Ask any Thai which victory the Victory Monument commemorates. Very few have any idea.
Think of the Royal Thai Army as five things at once – a political party, a business enterprise, a criminal mafia, a social club for generals, and also (because they do have weapons) a fighting force.
Khun Chuvit has some new posters up in my neighborhood (On Nut) that I noticed just last night on the commute home. They are a simple picture of him and his pooch, a bull terrier. Spuds McKenzie worked for Budweiser back in the 1980s, so why not politicians? Much less in your face than his older posters.
It says a lot about Thai politics that the nutter who admits his past activities in prostitution and bribery is widely perceived as the most honest candidate thereby.
I have a Thai language lesson using election campaign posters on my blog TweetYourselfThai (link above). Today’s post looks at the posters Chuwit has published on his Facebook page.
JL I have included the translations for the two posters featuring the En,glish Bull Terrier too.
Previous lessons look at slogans from PT and Dems – more to come as the campaign progress.
Have to agree with Chris Baker, these are the most interesting campaign posters in Bangkok although I can’t support either the ideas in one or the person in the other.
The single animal posters, (animal in suit on yellow background), are outstanding although they would make me want to vote for the candidate rather than not vote. Attitudes are changing and although the water monitor’s name is till an insult, nobody bothers them in the area where I live. It will be a shame if the BMA removes the posters as is being threatened, although I would obviously prefer people to vote Democrat here than not vote.
Chuwit has made a bigger visual splash on the roads in Bangkok than any other candidate. (He does well on TV too.) Even so it should be remembered he isn’t a very nice guy. If you have been paying off the police the chances are you are crook and he certainly doesn’t seem to have many scruples if you look at the land-clearing of what is now Chuvit Park.
CT @76: While I accept your broad point, I believe all of the points I listed have been fairly extensively covered in the Thai media. They may not have been as succinct as I was, but the information is there. And, throw in the blogs and it is widely covered.
Facebook 
Twitter 
Soundcloud 
Youtube 
Rss
A Pheua Thai win? But then what?
In a political system with no real checks and balances, the army is the last unbalanced check. I doubt 2006 will be the last.
A Pheua Thai win? But then what?
#41
I’m looking at a full car transporter of imported quality motors. BMW, Audi, Nissan, poshe. Several softtopped sports models. Now we all know that this business operates in a perpetual grey area in which some government officials take regular pay-offs, and just occasionally they throw an impoundment bone to the media gutter.
So they are opening a new imported car delership. What splendid timing! Back in the last lot of elections I saw 3 transporter loads of Porsches arrive.
Frankly, I think you New Mandala folks greatly underestimate the ability of Thaksin to win over certain crucial amaat with financial inducements. Amaat have lived with Thaksin before, and they will again. Thaksin is undoubtedly amaat himself. The pakama stuff is just political posturing. Sure he has pissed some key people off big time with his relentless efforts to monopolise anything profitable that moves, but their anger really reflects the reality that they are unhappy with him moving in on their time-honored turf.
Against that background it’s obvious that Thaksin just treats the redshirts as a means to get what he wants, and he doesn’t begrudge making a few of them slightly rich or putting a load more in his debt along the way. They think they are exploiting him, but he is far more experienced in exploitation than they are.This means that nothing really meaningful will come from either a Shinawatra government or a government lead by his opponents. That has been the way ever since 1932 and nothing has really changed. The only real difference is that the general population are now much more subject to violence and the dire economic consequences of such crass local populism. The object is supposed to be to topple the amaat, but it would probably be more accate to view it as twisting their arms into accepting the Shinawatras as the country’s top economic dogs. However, they do stand to be recompensed for their loss of turf.
It’s already a certainty that NM readers will soon be very disillusioned by any likely election result or coup scenario.
Vandalism and democracy
Then again it could be unhealthy for those doing the vandalizing. I remember hearing a story about an election incident many many years ago in a province very close to Bangkok.
This is what I remember of the story, but maybe someone who was around at the time could correct it if it has morphed during the retelling.
Two boys were caught defacing a poster of the incumbent MP. Now this MP was a man of influence in his area and being an ex-policeman, the local police dropped the boys off at the MP’s compound. Only one of the boys survived the beating.
Does anyone else remember this story? The person who told me is no longer with us.
Vandalism and democracy
You will not be surprised if you understand the feeling of relatives and friends of those who were killed, injured, or imprisoned because of Abhisit government.
It has not just happened. It happens, even in the outskirt area of Bangkok, to the posters of the one who cannot be named – but you know who.
Vandalism and democracy
But why the imbalance between Democrat and Pheua Thai posters being vandalised ? Given the “passions” displayed by both sides in the past one might have expect equal vandalism against Yingluk’s pictures. Is it because the Democrats are now the common enemy of PT and PAD as detailed by BP http://asiancorrespondent.com/author/bangkokpundit ?
Maybe we should not assume all the vandalism of Abhisit’s face is by UDD supporters.
A Pheua Thai win? But then what?
In looking at the current state of political play in Thailand we overlook small details. it is sometimes small detauils that matter. Many English language discussion sites are fixated with the forthcoming elections as if it were an even contest between two (uneven) players. This ignores the fact that over the past five years most of the more competent political opponents have either been failed by the courts and on a five year ban which continues until middle of next year, or imprisoned for trifling matters or fabricated legal cases. But it is the street talk, the body language, the media and elite doublespeak, and the various ambiguities that we should observe closely. As in chaos theory, small nuances can lead to massive implications, rendering outcomes and long-term political predictions impossible. Who wins the elections is increasingly less important than who will not lose. We know that the knives are out for Phue Thai to fail through discrediting the red shirts and opposition members of parliament before the election takes place. The “old tricks” of the amaat worked well last two times, but this time the amaat regime has to be a little more wary given its appalling human rights record. The amaat/royalists are riding high again, just as they did pre-TRT 2001, but they are extremely nervous.
Makawan Bridge bomb last week in front of PAD group was planted to create the start of chaos. PAD has warned to expect something to happen before the 3rd July. The “multicolours” (aka “Yellow”) are trying to find basis to fail Yingluck (raising anything and everything, from an unregistered marriage to Thaksin’s early financial dealings). The ludicrous “destroying Monarchy” (Lom Jao) Mind Map of Sansern’s has now been reinvigorated from last year. Dr Sutachai Yinprasert threatened legal action against Sansern, Abhisit and Suthep over the fabrication of this “map” – which involves his name among many others. Sansern backed down in March saying that it was indeed fabricated and involving many hands but comes out again now saying that it is “real” after all! “About face” positioning is nothing to the amaat and their political dependents. Sutachai’s book “A historical stream of democracy in Thailand” (saithaan’prawatsaat prachaa’thipatai’thai) which came out in 2009 needs translating/reviewing for readers (Craig?).
Surachai “Sae Dan”, currently in prison, has now been charged with another case of LM from an incident in the north; he says that there is indeed a serious attempt to try and fail the elections and that we should not be surprised because the whole thing was planned way back. But even assuming elections go ahead, it will be hard for the democracy movement to reclaim terra firma if Phue Thai lose (even they are shown to have a decent lead right now) because they will have no legitimate basis to cry foul, unless of course they can prove (and to whom?) that there was election cheating and ballot rigging. An excess of 6.2 million ballot papers have been printed and of course overseas voting already closed…
Another danger is that by coming out now in electioneering mode all regional red shirt leaders have exposed themselves to the regime. They are now visible. An influential “hand” has now given the nod that Phue Thai should be failed; the army and their judicial partners will handle that matter in due course. Frankly, given this scenario, it may take many years again before the red shirt/pro-democracy movement can move the democratic process forward. The amaat must surely not lose the elections; this is part of a game plan set way back. It follows chaos theory and the continuing ripples from the centre. The elections are staged by the amaat regime to show to the world that the regime is serious about electoral democracy. The stakes are indeed dangerously high. Anything can, and probably will happen.
A Pheua Thai win? But then what?
“However, does this really solve anything for the amart? ”
I really don’t care about the amaat. Does this really solve anything for the people of Thailand.
Five years ago the Seven Dwarves (Prem, Sarayut, et al. you name them) locked Dracula in his coffin, but he morphed in his undead sleep therein into Snow White, and now on awakening will pickup right where he/she/it/they left off.
If the dwarves and their backers had foregone the tracked vehicles and the smash and grab at power and stuck to politics as they should have Thaksin would be being voted out by now, and good riddance to bad rubbish, everyone would be saying.
But the problem is, you see, that they cannot play politics because their interests are diametrically opposed to those of the people of Thailand, so they can never be elected, so they always must coup.
There has to be a ‘last time’. Why not 2006?
Chuvit on the streets
Ricardo – D. – 9
Most businesses pay off the police, regardless or whether they are operating in the legal grey area or not; even my barber pays the police 4,000/month for [protection?]…
Ricardo I have been in business here in Thailand for many years. Always I have found that bribes are paid because of some infringement of rules or laws, or because a businessman want the police to do something for them, (like their job;-)
If you barber is paying protection money, as in if he doesn’t pay he gets hurt, then that is very bad. More likely you will find he is doing something that isn’t strictly legal and the police are taking their share.
The shame is the reform of the Thai police force hasn’t happened as promised and this I suspect shows their power in politics.
Chuvit on the streets
“It says a lot about Thai politics that the nutter who admits his past activities in prostitution and bribery is widely perceived as the most honest candidate thereby.”
Presumably that is because he IS amongst the most honest. Can’t say I exactly find that half-baked act particularly inspiring, however. It will be decades, if ever, before a mature election campaign is possible here. And judging by recent electoral fiascos in the USA and the UK, there is precious little even half-baked democracy in the wider ‘modern’ world anyway.
Chuvit on the streets
WLH #6 we’ve had those who dabbles in the same profession as ministers in the current government. It’s nothing news worthy anymore.
FACT’s plea for Joe Gordon
Nuomi $34
do you know who and how your Mum was required to choose citizenship?
some countries (I think not many) do require renouncement of previous citizenship when adopting a new one
30 years ago Australia did not require my wife to renounce her Thai (or any other citizenship) when she became an Australian citizen
also Thai immigration had no issues about renewing her Thai passport after she became an Australian citizen
however, we were quite uncertain at the time and our friends didnt know the rules
only after research into both countries regulations were we reassured that dual (or even perhaps multiple) citizenship was and is quite allowable
Chuvit on the streets
Love his posters but Chuwit looks like he needs a Xanax.
A lot of people write him off because of his eccentricities but with the Dems and PT looking so similar now – populist policies, war on drugs, etc. – I wouldn’t be surprised if he does get a seat in Parliament. A number of my friends (late 20s, urbanites, fed up with politics) have said they will vote for him (although whether that will happen come election day…)
@ LesAbbey – Even so it should be remembered he isn’t a very nice guy. If you have been paying off the police the chances are you are crook…
I remember when was running for governer of BKK and punched that interviewer (whose name escapes me) for saying he wasn’t manly, but that second statement is ridiculous. Most businesses pay off the police, regardless or whether they are operating in the legal grey area or not; even my barber pays the police 4,000/month for [protection?]…
FACT’s plea for Joe Gordon
#20
That’s most interesting. My mom had to choose which citizenship. Then again that was a long time ago. Perhaps things are different today, perhaps there’s a difference between male vs female?
Chuvit on the streets
If the election is about most interesting posters, Chuwit wins handsdown!
Thanks for the pics
Review of Ruth
Not a bad review, but not entirely free of errors.
1. Around 60,000 Australians served in South Vietnam, rather more than the number of Thai troops deployed.
2. The Black Panther Division did not supplement the Queen’s Cobra Regiment in 1968, it replaced it.
3. On its return to Thailand in 1971, the Black Panther Division became the 9th Infantry Division, based in Kanchanaburi. The Vietnam War Memorial was erected at the entrance to the base. It was not “tucked away” in embarrasment at a mistaken campaign.
4. The Thai people tend to forget most of their wars, not just the one in South Vietnam. Ask any Thai which victory the Victory Monument commemorates. Very few have any idea.
Think of the Royal Thai Army as five things at once – a political party, a business enterprise, a criminal mafia, a social club for generals, and also (because they do have weapons) a fighting force.
Chuvit on the streets
Khun Chuvit has some new posters up in my neighborhood (On Nut) that I noticed just last night on the commute home. They are a simple picture of him and his pooch, a bull terrier. Spuds McKenzie worked for Budweiser back in the 1980s, so why not politicians? Much less in your face than his older posters.
Chuvit on the streets
It says a lot about Thai politics that the nutter who admits his past activities in prostitution and bribery is widely perceived as the most honest candidate thereby.
Chuvit on the streets
I have a Thai language lesson using election campaign posters on my blog TweetYourselfThai (link above). Today’s post looks at the posters Chuwit has published on his Facebook page.
JL I have included the translations for the two posters featuring the En,glish Bull Terrier too.
Previous lessons look at slogans from PT and Dems – more to come as the campaign progress.
Chuvit on the streets
Have to agree with Chris Baker, these are the most interesting campaign posters in Bangkok although I can’t support either the ideas in one or the person in the other.
The single animal posters, (animal in suit on yellow background), are outstanding although they would make me want to vote for the candidate rather than not vote. Attitudes are changing and although the water monitor’s name is till an insult, nobody bothers them in the area where I live. It will be a shame if the BMA removes the posters as is being threatened, although I would obviously prefer people to vote Democrat here than not vote.
Chuwit has made a bigger visual splash on the roads in Bangkok than any other candidate. (He does well on TV too.) Even so it should be remembered he isn’t a very nice guy. If you have been paying off the police the chances are you are crook and he certainly doesn’t seem to have many scruples if you look at the land-clearing of what is now Chuvit Park.
Yingluck on the streets
CT @76: While I accept your broad point, I believe all of the points I listed have been fairly extensively covered in the Thai media. They may not have been as succinct as I was, but the information is there. And, throw in the blogs and it is widely covered.