I don’t think that anyone can claim that these elections will be fair. There is no way to justify that.
Will the electoral process be co-opted? Maybe, ballot box stuffing is a charge not unheard of in many democracies. Will each persons’ vote count for one vote? Yes, there isn’t going to be any kind of disenfranchisement there. Nor will their likely be any kind of Florida-state-esque disallowing of certain peoples votes. Will the will of the electorate be adhered to? There’s not much of a precedent for that…
By these standards I believe that we can see quite clearly that there probably won’t be any kind of unfairness from a purely operational standpoint but that doesn’t rule out the fact that it isn’t a fair race to begin with. When vote buying is so openly tolerated there is not basis from which to say that each party had a fair chance at election.
Some political parties are so entrenched in the lives of their regions that there is no uprooting them. No-one could ever hope to oust them in an election because of the depth of their integration into all levels of social life. They hand out a few hundred baht a day, everyday, to those who come to them. They own major industries, sponsor all the local events, have friends in the local police and military and have been landowners for generations. I’m speaking here of Chachoengsao Province but there are innumerable others. There is no opposition.
That being said, I still think that the electoral process must be allowed to go through. If you accept that vote buying is a part of the process here you must also accept that people are cunning enough to take the money and run whichever way actually benefits. All democracies go through a corrupt and dubious period. American, English, Japanese, French, Canadian – whatever. In the early days they were all rife with problems. Thailand has never had a chance to really experience democracy for a very long period of time.
[…] 15 marzo scorso il webmaster thailandese Tanthawut Taweewarodomkul e’ stato condannato a 13 anni di galera per aver violato la “l… e per aver offeso la […]
Sometimes our memories are a bit too short term, and yes I do include myself in this.
When we are talking about the fairness in Thailand’s parliamentary system and whether it is democratic or not, we should remember that every Thai parliament in my memory has had the balance of power controlled by provincial persons of influence. (Now some may say that is too mild a name for what is really a Thai version of the mafia, so be my guest in substituting whichever term you feel suits it best.)
Sometimes these influential people have there own smaller or even micro parties, while at other times they are part of major parties such as the Democrats or Puea Thai. My own memory was jogged by the re-emergence today of 78 year old Sanoh Thienthong to probably be a party list candidate for Puea Thai. Being one of the co-founders of TRT with Thaksin it was he who led a 79 MP faction of the NAP to join the TRT. This time the announcement at his ‘Alpine’ golf course home will have far fewer than the 79 MPs he bought with him last time.
Whether we look at new regulations in the most recent constitution or the one before that, Thailand does need some rules to try and clean out the corrupt political families. Coups are obviously not the answer, but neither is Thaksin and Robert Amsterdam.
Thanks for the concise summary of the instruments that make up the blanket U.S. Sanctions towards Myanmar.
An interesting follow-up piece could be about the ‘politics behind the political instruments’.
As you pointed out, many U.S. diplomats (including former Ambassadors/Charge d’affaires and most of the currently serving American diplomats I know on the ground in Yangon) who are trained, skilled, and paid to provide intelligent analysis of political and economic situations on the ground have been forwarding their counterparts in Washington criticisms of current U.S. Policy for the past ten years or so.
Unfortunately, in the U.S., foreign policy towards Burma is a ’boutique issue’ and not one that is geostrategically important. This allows decision-makers to maintain policies that are ineffective and in fact destructive to the lives and livelihoods of impoverished people in the very country that they seek to change.
Decision makers in Washington are always going to take the ‘moral high ground’ and pay homage to their constituents, constituents who include large numbers of Burmese migrants and refugees, most of whom are stuck in 1988, and either unable or unwilling to lose face by altering their ideas about how to affect change in Myanmar. The exile lobbyists in the States are professionals, and they have done as most lobbies do – cultivate voters to join their cause. Senators and representatives in D.C. are not going to forego these votes in order to have a more accurate and effective policy to a country that has way too little U.S. strategic interest to matter.
The history books will tell of the devastating human toll sanctions policies have taken.
In conclusion, since it sounds like you have a legal background, would you be able to inform what exactly the process would be of ‘removing’ or altering some of these legal instruments. Are they decided by the State Dept., have to be voted on in Congress? Can each instrument be altered, or would it have to be removed?
As Thai politicians have little or no ethics or morals, you can reasonably be assured the election will not be fair. Far from it.
Which Thai DEMOCRATIC election has ever been fair?
The majority of Thai people are still controlled by a small percent of the population who manipulate and buy off the electorate, while for decades maintaining their clique like control over the kingdom and the majority of its resources. Its never been DEMOCRATIC.
Thailand needs a ‘social revolution’ not an election.
Yet where are the youth willing to fight for what is rightly theirs? Who’s there to lead them?
Its total apathy in Thailand compared to what has happened in Egypt and Tunisia.
The old Thai dinosaurs are cunning they have got the youth believing they as Thais are still superior to the rest of the world, if only they knew how their elders really saw them!
Senior General Than Shwe is trying to pose in history and in the people’s eyes as the benefactor of Burma giving back political power to the people by reintroducing constitution, re-electing parliament and by re-constituting a “civilian government”. But General Ne Win had done it before him with the 1974 Constitution and successive elected BSPP Governments that ultimately was rejected in 1988.
Now Than Shwe is worse than Ne Win as he did not resign from his Senior General Post after the dissolution of the SPDC and will remain in charge outside the Parliament. He appointed General Min Aung Hlaing as the Commander in Chief of the Burma’s Armed Forces just before the President was sworn in, that in itself is an affront as the president or Parliament must appoint the C in C of he Armed Forces.
What a farce Than Shwe has made? What a clown he is in democratic practice!
Sanctions against Burma and its leaders in power should still be in force as this is not affecting the populace very much, but a sore and moral weapon against the repressive regime. It’s not logical to remove sanctions because it’s not effective as not only sanctions but also the Burmese people’s desire and demonstrations for democracy have been ruthlessly suppressed and punished , let alone listened to!
Sanctioning to be effective depends on many factors including the cooperation of the Burma’s neighboring countries like China, India and Asean who are now the very playmates of the Junta and its proxy, Thein Sein’s government. Mind you majority of the Burmese people do not support the 2008 constitution, 2010 general election, present parliament and TheinSein’s Government. If they dare let the people decide by their own free will!
The basic answer is no. The current illegal constitution was written by an illegal coup and forced on the people for a vote (Vote no and you will have no government)
Is it fair to “balance” the elected representatives to parlaiment with others who do not represent any constituency and who hold a majority?
Well written and persuasive, Andrew. As others have said – if every claim was taken seriously then there would be no politicians left to contest the election in Thailand.
I think to consider the current elections fair would be akin to holding one’s head in the sand regarding Thai political history. As history tells us, coup is the usual method of regime change in Thailand. It would be a very impressive show of patience and sheer bloodymindedness for a Thai voter to have faith in the electoral process these days…
PS – That said, im thinking this one might be a bit closer to call. I have been hearing quite a bit of support for Abhisit as a person and leader in northern presumed-red areas. He seems popular with the mae baan ….. maybe the ladies of Thailand could get him over the line?
Thai readers should note that there are now two new paperback print editions of р╕Бр╕Зр╕Ир╕▒р╕Бр╕гр╕Ыр╕╡р╕ир╕▓р╕И.
The first, published in 2010, on which I have reported here previously, is a faithful reprint of the original black-covered first edition with white lettering with author attribution on its spine. The only change appeared to be the addition of a date at the bottom of the book’s spine: 2489. This, of course, is not the date of publication but the year of King Ananda’s death: 1946. The original publishing group of political science students at Thammasat University is noted on the rear cover.
The second reprint has a redesigned cover. The book is in slightly larger format. The title on the spine is in orange letters with no author attribution. The cover is glossy and the rear cover blank. Its first page is a photo-reproduction of the front dust wrapper of the first edition copy of The Devil’s Discus in English.
It is most interesting that we are now seeing two print copies of a Thai book officially banned by the military coup govt in 2006. To sell, distribute or even give away is a criminal act under the military coup-promulgated Printing Act 2007. The Thai translation was originally banned using Article 9 of the 1941 Printing Act.
Simple personal possession of banned books appears not to be criminal. Of course, we have no indication the either book’s publisher or their motivations in taking such great risk.
Both books are widely available and circulated at many book venues although, of course, not sold in bookstores.
Needless to say, the first 16 pages of both reprints are missing nor have we ever found them in first editions. I’ll pay handsomely for scans of those first 16! We love a mystery.
The gunshot death of King Ananda is the most notable suppressed history in Thailand. This seminal event is not taught even to undergraduate history majors or to graduate students of Thai history. King Ananda’s death remains the great unmentioned.
In my opinion, it is the principal failure of the ninth reign that the young King Bhumibol did not extend a Royal pardon or at least commute the sentences of the three Palace servants executed in 1955, or even reopen an extensive and independent new investigation into the case.
The new king had then ascended the throne for nine years. Due to the political implications of his brother’s death case, the king must have been under extreme pressure not to act. We must all consider who might have exerted that pressure.
Ananda’s death changed the political landscape of Thailand irrevocably. Pibulsongkram ensured the ascendancy of the military and Pridi died in exile.
In Thailand, i am afraid it isn’t just basic economics – poor, rich, etc.
In this wide world of “prostitution” in Thailand there are gray zones that simply do not fit into the standard economics stereotypes.
Thai prostitution does not just consist of Isarn or Northern women from poor villages…
There are even earlier novels depicting Thailand’s sordid scenery, such as Jack Reynolds’ ‘A Woman Of Bangkok’, first published in 1956, and credited as maybe the first of the genre of “sexpat novels”.
Looking at the most recent polls, I think it will be very hard for Abhisit/Democrat to win in all parts of country except the South. This guy has earned the reputation of Dee tae pood (Good at talking only) while his economic policies (selling eggs by the kilo) and failures/scandal (palm oil) is like giving election victory on a platter to Thaksin/Pheu Thai.
For the simple above reason, the reds have strong reasons the ammat-supported Democrats is very likely to cheat in order to survive. But these people are ready, including guarding the ballot boxes.
I don’t care much about election to be honest, its not that I lose fate in electorate democracy, but as of now, Thailand is more of a dictatorship with election (similar to Egypt during Mubarak). Therefore, what is so good about election when the real power does not lies with the electorate?
Btw, Andrew you are wrong about this election being “fair” in terms of basic electoral process.
Looking into the detail, the new combination 125:375 split already give the Dem a head start since the N and NE got their MP seat diluted by 16 seats (I could be wrong about the number) while the south got only 8 of the MP seats taken away.
Furthermore, there should be no such thing as “early” election, since no one can be sure where the box is kept or who should be responsible to keep the ballot box “untouch” before the counting. This is certainly odd that anyone can allow to have early election with so much time span to the counting day. I don’t call this fair, but its not that I care.
Yes, they will be fair in terms of basic electoral process. I have little sympathy for the claims made by some on the opposition/red shirt side of politics that Abhisit will use electoral cheating and manipulation to hold onto office.
What a strange post Andrew. First you say the above and then you go on to make all sorts of excuses on why a possible win for Abhisit shows the next election to be unfair.
Why is it unfair?
Well for you it seems to be because Thaksin chose, and was allowed, to go into exile in order to escape a two year prison sentence. Or maybe it could be that certain politicians were banned from politics for five years for breaking election rules according to the constitution? Or could it be that bought politicians in the northeast deserted their leader and were persuaded to support the Democrats?
Why all the excuses?
Hopefully it’s because some see a real chance that Thaksin’s political party will not win the next election. I do hope they are right, but I, for one, am only cautiously optimistic. In my heart I would find it hard to forgive a man who organized and financed a failed putsch, (or revolution according to the reader’s beliefs), in which so many young workers and peasants were killed, while he lived a life of luxury.
But then again, everyone to their own and the man will probably receive a pardon in the near future.
LesAbbey 6
For what it’s worth I think you’ll find the ghost of Bugis St is alive and kicking in places like Orchard Towers, Chinatown and even the remaining jungle areas. The market is mainly domestic, expat and migrant labour. It isn’t in the tourist brochures, the girls are mostly not Singaporean (So the states morals aren’t directly impugned) but the profiteers are mostly Chinese Singaporean.
Just a different approach to the worlds second oldest profession (after political profiteering)
AW: “As long as the Democrats are unwilling or unable to face him at an election, they will have to live with the charge of electoral unfairness.”
Andrew, I think you’re off-track here. Given that Samak readily admitted that he was a surrogate for Thaksin, the Democrats did effectively face him in 2007 – and lost the contest by quite a margin of seats.
Subject to how PT actually present themselves in the promised election, it’ll possibly be near enough the same surrogacy again; certainly they’ve been making plenty of noises about a win for them bringing about Thaksin’s return – and it seems clear that it’s Thaksin choosing the party’s leader/PM.
In passing, I recommend a new CFR article by Joshua Kurlantzick – “Thailand: A Democratic Failure and Its Lessons for the Middle East” – at http://tinyurl.com/6ke8wby and also Bangkok Pundit’s comments on it at http://tinyurl.com/69qlxbj
there will be election but i don’t think it will be fair. the history will repeat like as you say claim and counter claim. Abhisit might be clean but people around him are not. i don’t think opposition & UDD had to be so much worried if they lose, since opposition are the one who are truly talking about democracy, freedom of expression & believe in ballot. i believe opposition will respect the people choice, the military & Elite will do whatever it takes to keep opposition by-side & bring back democrat led government.
In the case of Thaksin, i think he should come back & fight for the justice. he should face a trail & show a great example for other people. i don’t believe he’ll lose the ground if he accepted the charge.Thaksin is not only the corrupted politician in this country. i believe he is still powerful figure in thai politics.
A Thai election is like a lateral pass in football. Not progress exactly, but a moment to reposition everyone and see who’s vulnerable to being outrun.
Benefits this time might include 1) accelerating the fracture and demise of the PAD, 2) pressuring the UDD to legitimize their popularity with policy, 3) forcing Thaksin to either assert red leadership or relinquish it, 4) encourage a rational assessment of the Democrats by some voters and the press, 5) prod the pundits into reading the Constitution again.
Also it decreases the chances of violence in April if there’s a poll in June/July. Maybe it’s a barometer of personal cynicism to think that this is good enough.
Has the New mandala stopped publishing Hla Oo’s “Burma in limbo” while Hla Oohas established his own blog? What is the New Mandala’s policy in this regard?
The impact of the Indochina wars and Thailand as R&R, and subsequent tourism promotion is also not to be underestimated in the development of modern prostitution in Thailand.
And as quick as it comes it can go given the right economic conditions. Prior to the US involvement in Vietnam, Singapore had the reputation that Thailand now enjoys [sic]. Just look at Singapore now.
Could Paul Theroux’s 1973 Saint Jack be called an early noir novel?
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Will Thailand’s elections be fair?
I don’t think that anyone can claim that these elections will be fair. There is no way to justify that.
Will the electoral process be co-opted? Maybe, ballot box stuffing is a charge not unheard of in many democracies. Will each persons’ vote count for one vote? Yes, there isn’t going to be any kind of disenfranchisement there. Nor will their likely be any kind of Florida-state-esque disallowing of certain peoples votes. Will the will of the electorate be adhered to? There’s not much of a precedent for that…
By these standards I believe that we can see quite clearly that there probably won’t be any kind of unfairness from a purely operational standpoint but that doesn’t rule out the fact that it isn’t a fair race to begin with. When vote buying is so openly tolerated there is not basis from which to say that each party had a fair chance at election.
Some political parties are so entrenched in the lives of their regions that there is no uprooting them. No-one could ever hope to oust them in an election because of the depth of their integration into all levels of social life. They hand out a few hundred baht a day, everyday, to those who come to them. They own major industries, sponsor all the local events, have friends in the local police and military and have been landowners for generations. I’m speaking here of Chachoengsao Province but there are innumerable others. There is no opposition.
That being said, I still think that the electoral process must be allowed to go through. If you accept that vote buying is a part of the process here you must also accept that people are cunning enough to take the money and run whichever way actually benefits. All democracies go through a corrupt and dubious period. American, English, Japanese, French, Canadian – whatever. In the early days they were all rife with problems. Thailand has never had a chance to really experience democracy for a very long period of time.
Thanthawut Taweewarodomkul gets 13 years
[…] 15 marzo scorso il webmaster thailandese Tanthawut Taweewarodomkul e’ stato condannato a 13 anni di galera per aver violato la “l… e per aver offeso la […]
Will Thailand’s elections be fair?
Sometimes our memories are a bit too short term, and yes I do include myself in this.
When we are talking about the fairness in Thailand’s parliamentary system and whether it is democratic or not, we should remember that every Thai parliament in my memory has had the balance of power controlled by provincial persons of influence. (Now some may say that is too mild a name for what is really a Thai version of the mafia, so be my guest in substituting whichever term you feel suits it best.)
Sometimes these influential people have there own smaller or even micro parties, while at other times they are part of major parties such as the Democrats or Puea Thai. My own memory was jogged by the re-emergence today of 78 year old Sanoh Thienthong to probably be a party list candidate for Puea Thai. Being one of the co-founders of TRT with Thaksin it was he who led a 79 MP faction of the NAP to join the TRT. This time the announcement at his ‘Alpine’ golf course home will have far fewer than the 79 MPs he bought with him last time.
Whether we look at new regulations in the most recent constitution or the one before that, Thailand does need some rules to try and clean out the corrupt political families. Coups are obviously not the answer, but neither is Thaksin and Robert Amsterdam.
Sanctioning Burma’s prospects
Jacqueline,
Thanks for the concise summary of the instruments that make up the blanket U.S. Sanctions towards Myanmar.
An interesting follow-up piece could be about the ‘politics behind the political instruments’.
As you pointed out, many U.S. diplomats (including former Ambassadors/Charge d’affaires and most of the currently serving American diplomats I know on the ground in Yangon) who are trained, skilled, and paid to provide intelligent analysis of political and economic situations on the ground have been forwarding their counterparts in Washington criticisms of current U.S. Policy for the past ten years or so.
Unfortunately, in the U.S., foreign policy towards Burma is a ’boutique issue’ and not one that is geostrategically important. This allows decision-makers to maintain policies that are ineffective and in fact destructive to the lives and livelihoods of impoverished people in the very country that they seek to change.
Decision makers in Washington are always going to take the ‘moral high ground’ and pay homage to their constituents, constituents who include large numbers of Burmese migrants and refugees, most of whom are stuck in 1988, and either unable or unwilling to lose face by altering their ideas about how to affect change in Myanmar. The exile lobbyists in the States are professionals, and they have done as most lobbies do – cultivate voters to join their cause. Senators and representatives in D.C. are not going to forego these votes in order to have a more accurate and effective policy to a country that has way too little U.S. strategic interest to matter.
The history books will tell of the devastating human toll sanctions policies have taken.
In conclusion, since it sounds like you have a legal background, would you be able to inform what exactly the process would be of ‘removing’ or altering some of these legal instruments. Are they decided by the State Dept., have to be voted on in Congress? Can each instrument be altered, or would it have to be removed?
Will Thailand’s elections be fair?
As Thai politicians have little or no ethics or morals, you can reasonably be assured the election will not be fair. Far from it.
Which Thai DEMOCRATIC election has ever been fair?
The majority of Thai people are still controlled by a small percent of the population who manipulate and buy off the electorate, while for decades maintaining their clique like control over the kingdom and the majority of its resources. Its never been DEMOCRATIC.
Thailand needs a ‘social revolution’ not an election.
Yet where are the youth willing to fight for what is rightly theirs? Who’s there to lead them?
Its total apathy in Thailand compared to what has happened in Egypt and Tunisia.
The old Thai dinosaurs are cunning they have got the youth believing they as Thais are still superior to the rest of the world, if only they knew how their elders really saw them!
Than Shwe playing Parliament
Senior General Than Shwe is trying to pose in history and in the people’s eyes as the benefactor of Burma giving back political power to the people by reintroducing constitution, re-electing parliament and by re-constituting a “civilian government”. But General Ne Win had done it before him with the 1974 Constitution and successive elected BSPP Governments that ultimately was rejected in 1988.
Now Than Shwe is worse than Ne Win as he did not resign from his Senior General Post after the dissolution of the SPDC and will remain in charge outside the Parliament. He appointed General Min Aung Hlaing as the Commander in Chief of the Burma’s Armed Forces just before the President was sworn in, that in itself is an affront as the president or Parliament must appoint the C in C of he Armed Forces.
What a farce Than Shwe has made? What a clown he is in democratic practice!
Sanctioning Burma’s prospects
Sanctions against Burma and its leaders in power should still be in force as this is not affecting the populace very much, but a sore and moral weapon against the repressive regime. It’s not logical to remove sanctions because it’s not effective as not only sanctions but also the Burmese people’s desire and demonstrations for democracy have been ruthlessly suppressed and punished , let alone listened to!
Sanctioning to be effective depends on many factors including the cooperation of the Burma’s neighboring countries like China, India and Asean who are now the very playmates of the Junta and its proxy, Thein Sein’s government. Mind you majority of the Burmese people do not support the 2008 constitution, 2010 general election, present parliament and TheinSein’s Government. If they dare let the people decide by their own free will!
Is an election the answer for Thailand?
The basic answer is no. The current illegal constitution was written by an illegal coup and forced on the people for a vote (Vote no and you will have no government)
Is it fair to “balance” the elected representatives to parlaiment with others who do not represent any constituency and who hold a majority?
Will Thailand’s elections be fair?
Well written and persuasive, Andrew. As others have said – if every claim was taken seriously then there would be no politicians left to contest the election in Thailand.
I think to consider the current elections fair would be akin to holding one’s head in the sand regarding Thai political history. As history tells us, coup is the usual method of regime change in Thailand. It would be a very impressive show of patience and sheer bloodymindedness for a Thai voter to have faith in the electoral process these days…
PS – That said, im thinking this one might be a bit closer to call. I have been hearing quite a bit of support for Abhisit as a person and leader in northern presumed-red areas. He seems popular with the mae baan ….. maybe the ladies of Thailand could get him over the line?
The Devil’s Discus – in Thai
Thai readers should note that there are now two new paperback print editions of р╕Бр╕Зр╕Ир╕▒р╕Бр╕гр╕Ыр╕╡р╕ир╕▓р╕И.
The first, published in 2010, on which I have reported here previously, is a faithful reprint of the original black-covered first edition with white lettering with author attribution on its spine. The only change appeared to be the addition of a date at the bottom of the book’s spine: 2489. This, of course, is not the date of publication but the year of King Ananda’s death: 1946. The original publishing group of political science students at Thammasat University is noted on the rear cover.
The second reprint has a redesigned cover. The book is in slightly larger format. The title on the spine is in orange letters with no author attribution. The cover is glossy and the rear cover blank. Its first page is a photo-reproduction of the front dust wrapper of the first edition copy of The Devil’s Discus in English.
It is most interesting that we are now seeing two print copies of a Thai book officially banned by the military coup govt in 2006. To sell, distribute or even give away is a criminal act under the military coup-promulgated Printing Act 2007. The Thai translation was originally banned using Article 9 of the 1941 Printing Act.
Simple personal possession of banned books appears not to be criminal. Of course, we have no indication the either book’s publisher or their motivations in taking such great risk.
Both books are widely available and circulated at many book venues although, of course, not sold in bookstores.
Needless to say, the first 16 pages of both reprints are missing nor have we ever found them in first editions. I’ll pay handsomely for scans of those first 16! We love a mystery.
The gunshot death of King Ananda is the most notable suppressed history in Thailand. This seminal event is not taught even to undergraduate history majors or to graduate students of Thai history. King Ananda’s death remains the great unmentioned.
In my opinion, it is the principal failure of the ninth reign that the young King Bhumibol did not extend a Royal pardon or at least commute the sentences of the three Palace servants executed in 1955, or even reopen an extensive and independent new investigation into the case.
The new king had then ascended the throne for nine years. Due to the political implications of his brother’s death case, the king must have been under extreme pressure not to act. We must all consider who might have exerted that pressure.
Ananda’s death changed the political landscape of Thailand irrevocably. Pibulsongkram ensured the ascendancy of the military and Pridi died in exile.
We are all still suffering the consequences.
A beginners’ guide to Bangkok Noir
“LesAbbey”:
In Thailand, i am afraid it isn’t just basic economics – poor, rich, etc.
In this wide world of “prostitution” in Thailand there are gray zones that simply do not fit into the standard economics stereotypes.
Thai prostitution does not just consist of Isarn or Northern women from poor villages…
There are even earlier novels depicting Thailand’s sordid scenery, such as Jack Reynolds’ ‘A Woman Of Bangkok’, first published in 1956, and credited as maybe the first of the genre of “sexpat novels”.
Will Thailand’s elections be fair?
Looking at the most recent polls, I think it will be very hard for Abhisit/Democrat to win in all parts of country except the South. This guy has earned the reputation of Dee tae pood (Good at talking only) while his economic policies (selling eggs by the kilo) and failures/scandal (palm oil) is like giving election victory on a platter to Thaksin/Pheu Thai.
For the simple above reason, the reds have strong reasons the ammat-supported Democrats is very likely to cheat in order to survive. But these people are ready, including guarding the ballot boxes.
Will Thailand’s elections be fair?
I don’t care much about election to be honest, its not that I lose fate in electorate democracy, but as of now, Thailand is more of a dictatorship with election (similar to Egypt during Mubarak). Therefore, what is so good about election when the real power does not lies with the electorate?
Btw, Andrew you are wrong about this election being “fair” in terms of basic electoral process.
Looking into the detail, the new combination 125:375 split already give the Dem a head start since the N and NE got their MP seat diluted by 16 seats (I could be wrong about the number) while the south got only 8 of the MP seats taken away.
Furthermore, there should be no such thing as “early” election, since no one can be sure where the box is kept or who should be responsible to keep the ballot box “untouch” before the counting. This is certainly odd that anyone can allow to have early election with so much time span to the counting day. I don’t call this fair, but its not that I care.
Will Thailand’s elections be fair?
Yes, they will be fair in terms of basic electoral process. I have little sympathy for the claims made by some on the opposition/red shirt side of politics that Abhisit will use electoral cheating and manipulation to hold onto office.
What a strange post Andrew. First you say the above and then you go on to make all sorts of excuses on why a possible win for Abhisit shows the next election to be unfair.
Why is it unfair?
Well for you it seems to be because Thaksin chose, and was allowed, to go into exile in order to escape a two year prison sentence. Or maybe it could be that certain politicians were banned from politics for five years for breaking election rules according to the constitution? Or could it be that bought politicians in the northeast deserted their leader and were persuaded to support the Democrats?
Why all the excuses?
Hopefully it’s because some see a real chance that Thaksin’s political party will not win the next election. I do hope they are right, but I, for one, am only cautiously optimistic. In my heart I would find it hard to forgive a man who organized and financed a failed putsch, (or revolution according to the reader’s beliefs), in which so many young workers and peasants were killed, while he lived a life of luxury.
But then again, everyone to their own and the man will probably receive a pardon in the near future.
A beginners’ guide to Bangkok Noir
LesAbbey 6
For what it’s worth I think you’ll find the ghost of Bugis St is alive and kicking in places like Orchard Towers, Chinatown and even the remaining jungle areas. The market is mainly domestic, expat and migrant labour. It isn’t in the tourist brochures, the girls are mostly not Singaporean (So the states morals aren’t directly impugned) but the profiteers are mostly Chinese Singaporean.
Just a different approach to the worlds second oldest profession (after political profiteering)
Will Thailand’s elections be fair?
AW: “As long as the Democrats are unwilling or unable to face him at an election, they will have to live with the charge of electoral unfairness.”
Andrew, I think you’re off-track here. Given that Samak readily admitted that he was a surrogate for Thaksin, the Democrats did effectively face him in 2007 – and lost the contest by quite a margin of seats.
Subject to how PT actually present themselves in the promised election, it’ll possibly be near enough the same surrogacy again; certainly they’ve been making plenty of noises about a win for them bringing about Thaksin’s return – and it seems clear that it’s Thaksin choosing the party’s leader/PM.
In passing, I recommend a new CFR article by Joshua Kurlantzick – “Thailand: A Democratic Failure and Its Lessons for the Middle East” – at http://tinyurl.com/6ke8wby and also Bangkok Pundit’s comments on it at http://tinyurl.com/69qlxbj
Will Thailand’s elections be fair?
there will be election but i don’t think it will be fair. the history will repeat like as you say claim and counter claim. Abhisit might be clean but people around him are not. i don’t think opposition & UDD had to be so much worried if they lose, since opposition are the one who are truly talking about democracy, freedom of expression & believe in ballot. i believe opposition will respect the people choice, the military & Elite will do whatever it takes to keep opposition by-side & bring back democrat led government.
In the case of Thaksin, i think he should come back & fight for the justice. he should face a trail & show a great example for other people. i don’t believe he’ll lose the ground if he accepted the charge.Thaksin is not only the corrupted politician in this country. i believe he is still powerful figure in thai politics.
Will Thailand’s elections be fair?
A Thai election is like a lateral pass in football. Not progress exactly, but a moment to reposition everyone and see who’s vulnerable to being outrun.
Benefits this time might include 1) accelerating the fracture and demise of the PAD, 2) pressuring the UDD to legitimize their popularity with policy, 3) forcing Thaksin to either assert red leadership or relinquish it, 4) encourage a rational assessment of the Democrats by some voters and the press, 5) prod the pundits into reading the Constitution again.
Also it decreases the chances of violence in April if there’s a poll in June/July. Maybe it’s a barometer of personal cynicism to think that this is good enough.
Taking issue with reportage on Dunkley case
Has the New mandala stopped publishing Hla Oo’s “Burma in limbo” while Hla Oohas established his own blog? What is the New Mandala’s policy in this regard?
A beginners’ guide to Bangkok Noir
Nick Nostitz –
The impact of the Indochina wars and Thailand as R&R, and subsequent tourism promotion is also not to be underestimated in the development of modern prostitution in Thailand.
And as quick as it comes it can go given the right economic conditions. Prior to the US involvement in Vietnam, Singapore had the reputation that Thailand now enjoys [sic]. Just look at Singapore now.
Could Paul Theroux’s 1973 Saint Jack be called an early noir novel?