Comments

  1. Teufelsdroeckh says:

    It’s perhaps not so much a “loss of faith” as a question of the government (and its extra-parliamentary backers) lacking the ability to make a credible commitment to democratic procedures and outcomes.

    History will show whether the unwillingness to back down is indeed a fatal flaw for the red shirts. But people often burn bridges for sound strategic reasons. In this case, it might help them signal their commitment to the electoral process.

  2. Mungo Gubbins says:

    SR# “How long it will take before most Thais to be able wake up from the long time heavy propaganda and misinformation.”

    So are ‘most Thais’ therefore not capable of exercising sound judgement and making rational democratic choices because they have been exploited by the elite? Are they therefore ‘bumpkins’?

  3. Mike says:

    This is a country where the top treats human like dogs and cats. Thai citizens life are worthless to them. They order the shooting like those human life are some kind of practicing targets. They use sharp shooters who hide on the top of buildings and aim at the targets then pull the triggers, like what they did to Seh Daeng. They say those red-shirt are terrorists but what we can see from the corpses can truly tell that this government uses terrorist method in killing innocent people. The moment that I am writing, at least there are 60 deaths from the beginning, not counting the one who were injured which should exceed thousands by now. Today alone, more than 20 people are killed. They will do anything, even killing ten of thousands of people to keep their power. How many more life do they need to kill to keep their power? They turn the city of angel into a battle ground, into a war zone. The red-shirt has no weapon except some bamboo stick and stone. How can they use machine guns against bamboo stick? We need to inform the world. We need help. We need international army. We do not need Thai army because the Thai army do not belong to Thai people. They only belong to some elites who are willing to kill innocent people.

  4. SR says:

    “but remember that those who condemn the red shirt provocations most vigorously are also those who have consistently denied the legitimacy of their peaceful statements at the ballot box.”

    I whole heartedly agree with your article. I wish a lot of Thai political scholars and commentators had the same truly understanding of our own politics as you do. Sadly that most of them don’t, otherwise with their neutral , unbiases and non myopic analysis would have prevented out country from plunging into the deeply tragic political and social crisis. The lost of 60+ lives and more than 1000 injured and some would be maimed should have been avoided.

    How long it will take before most Thais to be able wake up from the long time heavy propaganda and misinformation. How many more lives will have to be blown in the wind before we can get justice and pure democracy not sufficient democracy (nick name of monarch -crazy political model?

  5. ayutthaya says:

    There are two aspects to the Thai national personality: politeness and ritual (The Thai of ‘The Land of Smiles’); and its diametric opposite, the Thai Fighter, savage unrestrained without rules (Thai Boxing). The attempted assassination of Seh Daeng essentially signaled the coming off of gloves by the Ammataya, the entry of the unrestrained Thai. The Bangkok elites and the military have essentially came to a considered assessment that the Phrai would again be cowed, would back down, before an Ammataya show of force – as the Phrai had always done for millennia. But this is the 21stC, and the internet. It would be interesting to see if this assessment, this gamble, comes off.

  6. Jim Taylor says:

    England #81 simplistic and cynical analysis: when have you seen Saedaeng with weapons? “murdurous thug”??- the fascist media has got to you! He was in fact a real gentleman at heart and spent time wandering about the crowds listening and talking to them while Nor Por Chor leaders took the limelight; he travelled extensively across the countryside talking to ordinary folk and understood their problems better than most. His political party would have gained an enormous support base. But of course his mouth often got him into trouble and few liked his brisk rhetorical method… Neither are the Reds a “rabble”: degrading epithets like this are not constructive. Reds are a diverse passionate folk who, unlike some of us, really believe in, as they say, “truth today”: social justice, fairness and equality. We will see whether as a “rabble” they will fade away in the next day or so, eh? My bet: no.

  7. Lee Marvin says:

    I’ll tell you why- because the “roadmap” wasn’t Abhisit’s idea at all, it was pushed on both sides by the Palace. That info comes from a solid source.

  8. karl says:

    There is good reason to have little or no faith in the electoral system. The same goes for both civil and criminal courts. In a few words..the Thai state and most of its institutions are f***ed, and need a complete overhaul. And that is not going to happen.

  9. Maratjp says:

    Just finished a recon of the protest. My thesis remains unchanged: there aren’t enough soldiers to shut down Ratchaprasong. Anupong is subverting Abhisit on this. He’s throwing just enough soldiers to give the appearance of doing his job, but in reality he’s falling far short strategically.

    These are the options the way I see them (after circulating throughout these protests for 8 weeks among the soldiers and the reds on my bike):

    1. The military leadership does not want to get dragged into a battle with civilians at Ratchaprasong because of the futility of such an operation both militarily and politically. The military can intimidate, but they are not willing to kill countless people (including kids and women). At least 5 thousand troops would be needed. Where are they? I haven’t seen them and I have been everywhere. Anupong is subverting the government and waiting for Abhisit to go.

    2. The military will surround the protest and starve it so Ratchaprasong slowly withers until the crowd is small enough to then go in. If what I have seen is the “squeeze” of such a maneuver, it isn’t going to work as there would be still much opportunity to get food and water to Ratchaprasong.

    3. What I have seen, which hasn’t made sense strategically, is really some master plan of genius where the military is providing distractions so a blitzkrieg comes in the middle of the night via a major highway or off the trains that surprises everyone.

    4. The military is just horrifically incompetent.

  10. Jim Taylor says:

    It was more than “theatricality” requesting Suthep (and his boss who could not be indicted) to be accountable for personal directed acts of mass murder: there were not going to run from this easily as too many lives had been sacrificed in the name of democracy. As well, the issue was fundamental to the process of negotiation which the Govt had no intention of responsive engagement; it is the right of both parties to negotiate a best position and this right was not given to Nor Por Chor. It was “take it or leave it” and then, if you “leave it” so we will shoot the bejesus out of you! What choice did Nor Por Chor have? I actually doubt judging by recent events that the DP had any sincere intention of conceding power that it had quite illegitimately taken post-2006 coup. It is naive to think otherwise

  11. LesAbbey says:

    Media War – 5

    and that those “men in black” actually prevented many more protesters deaths in the most swift and effective way: taking out the whole command of the crackdown contingent.

    I do wonder what the civilian/protester casualty rate was before and after the “taking out the whole command…”? It did seem to go up at that point didn’t it?

  12. Leah Hoyt says:

    So why didn’t the red shirts withdraw when Abhisit put his offer on the table?

    Because they are not that stupid.

    The protest leaders are certainly aware that the second they left the Rajdamri, jackbooted thugs would come for them, hurl them into some form of confinement allowed by the repressive laws put into place under three years of military rule, and they might never never be seen again.

    The elections would never have occurred. By November, either something would happen to require a change of plans, perhaps a death, or something would have to be manufactured, say a big bomb in Bangkok or other “terrorist” event.

    So the questions really should be why didn’t they fall for Aphisit’s trick with the answer being they saw through it.

  13. MediaWar says:

    it seems only logical that those who shot Seh Daeng will sooner or later eventually meet similar fate. I mean: of course, all the bunch of buddies of slain (on Apr 10) Romklao naturally were pissed off and decided to take a revenge on most obvious target, whom they alleged either carried out that hit or ordered it. the fact of course is being ignored or denied that Prayuth then has ordered to deploy snipers to shoot people, and that those “men in black” actually prevented many more protesters deaths in the most swift and effective way: taking out the whole command of the crackdown contingent.

    now, with Seh Daeng shot, perhaps fair to say – dead, – it would again backfire at those who shot him and who ordered that.

    snipers shooting unarmed people, even passers by or local residents, is no anyone’s doubt anymore. photos, eyewitness reports, western MSM confirmations provide more than enough evidences.

    so, what is the natural reaction to such a ruthless killing ? either people surrender to such a brutal force or … they fight back. looks like there is no sign of surrendering so far. which leaves another option.

    one thing is sure: at least those different army factions now openly engaged in all out offensive. and it is just a matter of time before some other tough golf-soldiers (from Anupong & Prayuth’s club) will start being picked out here and there.

    after all that’s what Seh Daeng said as much himself back in Apr, when some PADsters has being quoted by Nation saying “he will be hunted” – he replied that “hunters also can become hunted”

    that’s what I guess (or even bet) will happen – “hunters become hunted“. army has a lot of experience in that: reportedly the WHOLE so called “South Thailand insurgency” is nothing else than different army commands / divisions / factions killing rivals’ troops, and stage it as some sort of BS “ambushed / bombed by insurgents”

  14. Colum Graham says:

    Great post, but one thing I feel you have understandably overlooked is what’s going on outside of Bangkok. For instance, red shirts are mobilising in Ubon for a protest this evening. There were photos of a tire barricade there on picasa sourced from the #redshirts stream, but they have seemingly been deleted. Apparently there were shots fired in Ayutthaya this afternoon too?

  15. Phrai Dang says:

    Thai Protest Leaders Press for Ceasefire as Deadly Clashes Continue

    Leaders of an anti-government protest in Thailand are asking for a ceasefire to end violence that has killed 10 people and wounded more than 100 others.

    http://www1.voanews.com/english/news/asia/Thai-Protest-Leaders-Press-for-Ceasefire-as-Deadly-Clashes-Continue-93784399.html

  16. Steve says:

    Tiptop – 83 & 84

    Yes, same footage in that Guardian compilation (most media use “pooled” content) but the BBC version shows more and includes the reporter’s description for context as I quoted.

    Neither am I sure about the Canadian reporter’s shooting(s) being accidental – there is always cause to consider whether such events are the result of wild/indiscriminate shooting or a deliberate policy to discourage independent media from seeing/reporting what someone doesn’t want them to see/report. And, without wanting get too “CSI” about it, the hand wound and one other could be from the same bullet. Still, whether it’s two or three hits, the CNN video shows that the final one struck someone who was already incapacitated and lying on the ground; if not a ricochet, that makes it at least the result of wild/indiscriminate shooting.

    In passing, I’ll note that someone elsewhere has already queried Nelson Rand’s decision to wear black in those circumstances – even if just a black T-shirt and dark jeans. It’s also disturbing to read that some of the protesters involved in clashes are changing to dark/black clothes as night-time protection from snipers. Of course I see their logic, but I have an uneasy sense that we’re heading for something self-fulfilling if that continues….

  17. polo says:

    I don’t like the comment rating system at all.
    – it’s distracting from reading the comments
    – from what I’ve seen so far, it’s more agree-disagree
    – a comment can get 30 votes and disappear — high negative ratio — while others that have 0 votes remain. What does this tell us?
    – when a comment is bad-rated, and disappears, I want to click to see why. If it was readily visible, I could easily and more quickly decide to read or not read it.
    – experimenting with a rating system suggests that you will somehow highlight top-rated comments, which could mean taking them out of context/sequence. Reading NM’s comments in sequence is very useful, and as I said, if there is nonsense or off-topic stuff, its easy enough to skip without the distraction of some unscientific rating system .

    Or, in short: there was a (anti red anti thaksin) comment that disappeared because of a high negative ratio. But a lot of people voted, and it was on topic. I found myself giving it a positive vote just because it should be visible, not because i agreed. This is just an unneeded distraction on the web, where there is constant visual (and sometimes audible) noise of surveys, popups, ads etc. NM has been a thankfully simple and very useful site. Don’t screw it up!

  18. Srithanonchai says:

    On the reference to a certain “cowardly hypocrite who is hiding out in a barracks,” see the following quote:

    Saturday, April 24, 2010
    Abhisit vs Abhisit
    Prachatai has translated a Matichon Weekly article entitled “Abhisit vs. Abhisit”. Short excerpt:
    On 31 August 2008, Abhisit spoke in Parliament to then Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej who was under attack by the yellow-shirt People’s Alliance for Democracy, asking him to dissolve the House.

    ‘For the people, just one person or a hundred thousand, to come out to make demands of the government is not against the principles of democracy, especially when there are suspicions that the administration of the country has violated the law and the rights of the people, or is corrupt. In developed countries, these issues do not need to be dealt with by the law, but by a political sense of responsibility.

    ‘In Korea, when [the government] recently came up with a free trade policy to import beef, hundreds of thousands of people rose up. The government resigned. It has to be admitted that the PAD protests result from frustration which the people have long been harbouring.

    ‘Even if [the government] deals with [the protesters] once and for all, it will never be able to destroy the concept of resistance.’

    ‘Today, I have to say what displeases the ears of members of my party and other MPs, who always dislike the idea of a House dissolution. But a House dissolution is part of the show of spirit. If the PM does not want to take responsibility alone, the whole Parliament will take the pain together’.

  19. barnsybkk says:

    Very well spotted MichaelBKK, I only ever had it on tape not vinyl! The same pic has also been used by “Pink Man” as seen on this very site!
    http://www.newmandala.org/2007/11/13/horror-in-pink/. Interesting to read the man in pinks feelings about the chef back when he was the gov. I’m sure he was shocked by the irony of the chef ending his days as PM serving in a party that is the political wing of the current “Red Shirts”. We all know Samak had such a soft spot for leftest demonstrators over the years! What were the words he used back in 76 to kill UNARMED students, “communist vietnamese dogs”? or some such. Amazing how marriages of conveniances can form and the most unlikely of bedmates can get together. I wish he was still alive acting as Taksin’s nominee and defending the reds right to protest555!! Keep up the good work Pink Man!

  20. patiwat says:

    Was it really a .308 rifle bullet?

    I’ve seen uncorroborated reports saying that it was a high-velocity bullet, but nothing saying that it was specifically a .308. Please provide source.