Sorry If I offended you, I am truly sorry. Please accept my apology.
I didn’t mention your name intentionally, and also my point is just to prove that all the parties involved in this nasty affairs of Burma are just the brothers or friends.
We all do have our brothers, cousins, and close friends on the side of generals, unfortunately. Like you have a general brother.
Nothing uncanny and I wasn’t accusing anything. Nothing at all.
But I was so sure that I met General Tint Swe (Retired Minister for Ministry of Industry 1) in one of your residents (which one I can’t recall now) in 1993 or 1994. A year after ABSDF’s Aung Naing Oo’s visit to Sydney. I also met him in your house.
What I still remember was that he was just visiting Sydney after a medical operation in Canberra and he was meeting another Burmese doctor, Dr Reggie if I correctly remember, at your place, as you are the most well-known of the Burmese doctors in Sydney.
Please accept my sincere apology for the offense I may have caused.
My real name is Hla Oo too and you know me very well and also my family owed you and your family, especially your mother, a lot as you have taken care of us since our arrival in Sydney many many years ago.
The Thai political problems have been accumulated for too long and too deep beyond the simple option of, “Moving beyond Thaksin.” It would require structural historical understanding at all three levels: individual leader, national politics, and international politics. It also demands the understanding of Ferrara’s thesis implication of, “The Thai military pledges loyalty to the king but not the government.”
Andrew is justified in being skeptical about the links between extremely low dry season water-levels in the Mekong and the presence of Chinese dams in the upper Mekong. However, my take on things is different again.
First, we need to separate construction period impacts from operation period impacts. At present, those who discuss these issues tend to lump the two together erroneously, without understanding the types of differences that should be expected between the two. For example, with the Yali Falls dam in Vietnam, the downstream impacts to the Sesan River in Cambodia during the construction period were very different from those that were observed during the operational period. During construction, water levels varied widely from unusually low to unusually high, and were quite unpredictable. However, with a large reservoir dam such as Yali, the situation changed dramatically once the dam started operating. There were still daily fluxuations, but they were more moderate and predictable. They were based on a profit-maximising operating regime mandating that most electricity be generated when the price is highest, during the peak power usage period in HCMC. When prices are low (i.e. during the middle of the night when people are mainly sleeping), water is not released downstream.
More importantly, in relation to the issue of concern to Andrew, one would actually expect that once operational, water levels would be higher during the dry season due to Chinese dams, not lower! However, the construction of dams upstream may be causing lower levels during this dry season. Over the long-term, however, dry season water levels can be expected to be higher, and that, in fact, can be considered to be problematic from a ecological and livelihood perspective. The argument runs quite differently than what Andrew has mentioned.
Chinese dams are, I am sure, having hydrological impacts downstream. In fact, daily human-induced hydrological fluctuations caused by dams have been noticeable by villagers in Laos and Thailand for years now, and this should not be a surprise to anyone, but the issue of how much water is in the river is much more complicated than what is being commonly stated.
In addition, we should not be overly concerned about past hydrological data, because the dam construction that is going on at present is unprecedented for the Mekong, so what is happening now represents something new, something unlike anything that has occurred in the Mekong Basin before.
The Chinese dams are a threat to the ecology of the Mekong River as we know it today, but let’s not expect that over the long-term the dams will reduce water levels in the Mekong during the dry season. The opposite is likely to be the case. The dams collect water in the rainy season and release it to produce electricity during the dry season. That is the nature of dams with large reservoirs, especially those built in areas with monsoonal climates, and thus wide fluctuations in precipitation and water levels seasonally.
Bangkok Post continues reporting news in the form of assertion instead of verification. Instead of maintaining objectivity, this particular news reporting reflects the anti-China Cold War mentality. We already have Not the Nation, do we need Not the Bangkok Post? The basic element of journalism is to never add anything that was not there, never deceive the audience.
The Kachin appear to have employed a two-pronged strategy when part of the KIO leadership headed by Dr Tu Ja broke away amicably to form a new political party in order to contest the elections:
In a smart move they aim to stop the junta filling the political vacuum (which would result from a boycott) with its own candidates, at the same time satisfy those in their organisation who wish to contest thus preventing a split in their own ranks. More importantly it allows the mainstream resistance forces to make a principled stand and fight on.
The NLD could do well to take a leaf out of the Kachin’s book and create a proxy for the same purpose.
Muhyiddin had amassed a great deal of wealth when he was the Johor Chief Minister. His ultra-Malay stance has never wavered, and his ties with the southern grass root UMNO-Malays is very strong. All previous UMNO Presidents had strong sounthern backing. If he can get the $upport of a few of the sitting UMNO ministers, he can very likely pull off a coup in UMNO. He wasn’t in the country when the church attacks took place, leaving the sitting PM to face the public (Mahathir wasn’t in the country when the Baling incident happened, leaving the DPM to face the public). Makes one wonder of his involvement… All is not well with the sitting PM, even his wife’s interview with the trusted govt mouthpiece Bernama went so wrong with her telling the whole world that the PM ‘stomps his feet when he is angry’! (How immatured can he be? Even worse, how silly, no, stupid, is she to reveal such things to the whole world?)
Muhyiddin is seen as a genuine ultra-Malay. He certainty has the support and more importantly, money, to back his campaign to oust Najib. With bad economy for the country and bad press for Najib, all he has to do is bid his time.
Good point, Peter. I guess having lived through the Thaksin years reading the second- and third-to-last paragraphs made me catch my breath as I don’t exactly agree with his analysis of where the hearts of the Red shirts lay, and my response was thus reactionary.
[…] Khabar mula tersebar bahawa Timbalan Perdana Menteri, Muhyiddn Yassin sudah tidak sabar-sabar lagi untuk melawan ketuanya, Najib Razak. Malah, analisis ahli akademik Greg Lopez menjangkakan bahawa “Najib yang baru memegang tampuk kuasa mulai April 2009, kini dalam bahaya gagal menyempurnakan tempoh satu penggal sebagai Perdana Menteri”. уАРBaca: Is Najib on his way out?уАС […]
Dear Hla Oo
I was dismayed and disgusted by your totally false and malicious statement that you had met a retired senior general from Burma visiting me at my home in Australia. I strongly suggest that you identify yourself ( your true self), and apologise to your readers and those participating in the debate for having wasted their time by your uncanny and groundless accusation.
“North of Vientiane, about 50 percent of the Mekong’s dry season water flow comes from China, so the potential influence of the Chinese dams in increasing dry season flows will be more significant in the upper part of the lower Mekong basin (in northern Lao PDR and Thailand). However most of the wet season flows are generated in the area downstream of the Chinese dams and so they will have minimal influence on the flood peaks.” – MRC FAQ
If the Xiaowan dam’s reservoir is now being filled, this could have an impact on downstream water levels not seen before.
Although it is only to 2003, Lu, Wang and Grundy-Warr from NUS have data on Chiang Saen – maybe they would know more about getting something more up-to-date? What they have seems to confirm your points.
I wonder if there is any connection to this furor and EGAT’s potential investment in one of those dams. Investment was initially going to be in the dam at Jinghong before the 97 financial crisis, but then they (EGAT) pulled out. Apparently they’ve now targeted investment interest in Nuozhudu… ??
For the record, I would like to state that I’m very pleased with the Malaysian government’s initiative to improve its image – which includes discussion with various interested parties.
The article above is just to enlighten people on who the speakers are.
Also for the record, I would never want Malaysia to model Singapore. While I admire how Singapore has transformed itself into an economic miracle – the price that Singaporeans have paid – i.e. becoming a nation without a soul – is something I would never want.
Has there been a genuine debate on legislations in Singapore by the Bar Council of Singapore, has there been a genuine debate on labour issues by the Singapore Trade Union, has there been a genuine debate on diversity in Singapore, has there been a debate on what native born Singaporeans think of the permanent residents….. the last time I checked – there was none.
The government of Singapore prescribes, the people of Singapore follow. That is something that I can never accept.
Tench: I wasn’t clear. It is an issue of whether the military brass — or those guided by Prem at least — truly believe the institution of the monarchy itself is at threat in the succession, and can thus justify their stance based on defending a constitution-based institution. I am not saying there IS a genuine threat; just asking whether they really think there is one. And whether that would make their behaviour now qualitatively different from the past when they manufactured threats to protect their privileges.
I don’t think Federico can be understood to be arguing in favor of Thaksin in THAILAND UNHINGED. His main point is that the constant return of the “Generals” and those behind them to “save Thailand” and “Thai Democracy” is actually what is stopping Thai Democracy from ever happening……..
Greg, I think CSIS is trying to influence Najib government to uphold the rule of law in the governance. Do you think CSIS could make an impact in that direction?
Also when I make a comparison between Singapore and Malaysia, I just wonder why don’t Malaysia follow Singapore diversity vision? So I want to ask you whether the underlying reason was the UMNO politics or whether it was the lack of vision among Malaysian leaders.
Federico- Why have you not read Noam Chomsky? Regardless of its relevance to this particular case, he is a brilliant thinker who, perhaps better than most, espouses “procedural democracy, freedom of speech, and a measure of economic opportunity.”
You analysis here is very well thought out and, sadly, not really that difficult a conclusion to reach for anyone with a marginal education. The Thaksin camp, however, did nothing while in office to actually support or improve the quality of the lives of the people who are supporting it, as far as I could tell. It was more of the same in a different costume- old landed aristocracy being supplanted by new money 20th century aristocracy. Thaksin rose to his position by selling telecommunications equipment to the Burmese junta, he murdered thousands in his war on drugs, and he acted with single-minded greed and conceit in most of his dealings. I’m not sure how this is an improvement.
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Burma sanctions: limited, Western, symbolic
Dear Ko Tint Way,
Sorry If I offended you, I am truly sorry. Please accept my apology.
I didn’t mention your name intentionally, and also my point is just to prove that all the parties involved in this nasty affairs of Burma are just the brothers or friends.
We all do have our brothers, cousins, and close friends on the side of generals, unfortunately. Like you have a general brother.
Nothing uncanny and I wasn’t accusing anything. Nothing at all.
But I was so sure that I met General Tint Swe (Retired Minister for Ministry of Industry 1) in one of your residents (which one I can’t recall now) in 1993 or 1994. A year after ABSDF’s Aung Naing Oo’s visit to Sydney. I also met him in your house.
What I still remember was that he was just visiting Sydney after a medical operation in Canberra and he was meeting another Burmese doctor, Dr Reggie if I correctly remember, at your place, as you are the most well-known of the Burmese doctors in Sydney.
Please accept my sincere apology for the offense I may have caused.
My real name is Hla Oo too and you know me very well and also my family owed you and your family, especially your mother, a lot as you have taken care of us since our arrival in Sydney many many years ago.
Thitinan on the looming verdict
The Thai political problems have been accumulated for too long and too deep beyond the simple option of, “Moving beyond Thaksin.” It would require structural historical understanding at all three levels: individual leader, national politics, and international politics. It also demands the understanding of Ferrara’s thesis implication of, “The Thai military pledges loyalty to the king but not the government.”
Damned Chinese: mighty Mekong a memory
Andrew is justified in being skeptical about the links between extremely low dry season water-levels in the Mekong and the presence of Chinese dams in the upper Mekong. However, my take on things is different again.
First, we need to separate construction period impacts from operation period impacts. At present, those who discuss these issues tend to lump the two together erroneously, without understanding the types of differences that should be expected between the two. For example, with the Yali Falls dam in Vietnam, the downstream impacts to the Sesan River in Cambodia during the construction period were very different from those that were observed during the operational period. During construction, water levels varied widely from unusually low to unusually high, and were quite unpredictable. However, with a large reservoir dam such as Yali, the situation changed dramatically once the dam started operating. There were still daily fluxuations, but they were more moderate and predictable. They were based on a profit-maximising operating regime mandating that most electricity be generated when the price is highest, during the peak power usage period in HCMC. When prices are low (i.e. during the middle of the night when people are mainly sleeping), water is not released downstream.
More importantly, in relation to the issue of concern to Andrew, one would actually expect that once operational, water levels would be higher during the dry season due to Chinese dams, not lower! However, the construction of dams upstream may be causing lower levels during this dry season. Over the long-term, however, dry season water levels can be expected to be higher, and that, in fact, can be considered to be problematic from a ecological and livelihood perspective. The argument runs quite differently than what Andrew has mentioned.
Chinese dams are, I am sure, having hydrological impacts downstream. In fact, daily human-induced hydrological fluctuations caused by dams have been noticeable by villagers in Laos and Thailand for years now, and this should not be a surprise to anyone, but the issue of how much water is in the river is much more complicated than what is being commonly stated.
In addition, we should not be overly concerned about past hydrological data, because the dam construction that is going on at present is unprecedented for the Mekong, so what is happening now represents something new, something unlike anything that has occurred in the Mekong Basin before.
The Chinese dams are a threat to the ecology of the Mekong River as we know it today, but let’s not expect that over the long-term the dams will reduce water levels in the Mekong during the dry season. The opposite is likely to be the case. The dams collect water in the rainy season and release it to produce electricity during the dry season. That is the nature of dams with large reservoirs, especially those built in areas with monsoonal climates, and thus wide fluctuations in precipitation and water levels seasonally.
Damned Chinese: mighty Mekong a memory
Bangkok Post continues reporting news in the form of assertion instead of verification. Instead of maintaining objectivity, this particular news reporting reflects the anti-China Cold War mentality. We already have Not the Nation, do we need Not the Bangkok Post? The basic element of journalism is to never add anything that was not there, never deceive the audience.
The KIA digging in
The Kachin appear to have employed a two-pronged strategy when part of the KIO leadership headed by Dr Tu Ja broke away amicably to form a new political party in order to contest the elections:
http://www.irrawaddy.org/article.php?art_id=17788
In a smart move they aim to stop the junta filling the political vacuum (which would result from a boycott) with its own candidates, at the same time satisfy those in their organisation who wish to contest thus preventing a split in their own ranks. More importantly it allows the mainstream resistance forces to make a principled stand and fight on.
The NLD could do well to take a leaf out of the Kachin’s book and create a proxy for the same purpose.
Is Najib on his way out?
Muhyiddin had amassed a great deal of wealth when he was the Johor Chief Minister. His ultra-Malay stance has never wavered, and his ties with the southern grass root UMNO-Malays is very strong. All previous UMNO Presidents had strong sounthern backing. If he can get the $upport of a few of the sitting UMNO ministers, he can very likely pull off a coup in UMNO. He wasn’t in the country when the church attacks took place, leaving the sitting PM to face the public (Mahathir wasn’t in the country when the Baling incident happened, leaving the DPM to face the public). Makes one wonder of his involvement… All is not well with the sitting PM, even his wife’s interview with the trusted govt mouthpiece Bernama went so wrong with her telling the whole world that the PM ‘stomps his feet when he is angry’! (How immatured can he be? Even worse, how silly, no, stupid, is she to reveal such things to the whole world?)
Muhyiddin is seen as a genuine ultra-Malay. He certainty has the support and more importantly, money, to back his campaign to oust Najib. With bad economy for the country and bad press for Najib, all he has to do is bid his time.
Are you kidding me?
Good point, Peter. I guess having lived through the Thaksin years reading the second- and third-to-last paragraphs made me catch my breath as I don’t exactly agree with his analysis of where the hearts of the Red shirts lay, and my response was thus reactionary.
Army defiance
Suzy Wong I hope your not seriously quoting Not the Nation, you understand the concept of that website right? 🙂
Is Najib on his way out?
[…] Khabar mula tersebar bahawa Timbalan Perdana Menteri, Muhyiddn Yassin sudah tidak sabar-sabar lagi untuk melawan ketuanya, Najib Razak. Malah, analisis ahli akademik Greg Lopez menjangkakan bahawa “Najib yang baru memegang tampuk kuasa mulai April 2009, kini dalam bahaya gagal menyempurnakan tempoh satu penggal sebagai Perdana Menteri”. уАРBaca: Is Najib on his way out?уАС […]
Burma sanctions: limited, Western, symbolic
Dear Hla Oo
I was dismayed and disgusted by your totally false and malicious statement that you had met a retired senior general from Burma visiting me at my home in Australia. I strongly suggest that you identify yourself ( your true self), and apologise to your readers and those participating in the debate for having wasted their time by your uncanny and groundless accusation.
Damned Chinese: mighty Mekong a memory
“North of Vientiane, about 50 percent of the Mekong’s dry season water flow comes from China, so the potential influence of the Chinese dams in increasing dry season flows will be more significant in the upper part of the lower Mekong basin (in northern Lao PDR and Thailand). However most of the wet season flows are generated in the area downstream of the Chinese dams and so they will have minimal influence on the flood peaks.” – MRC FAQ
If the Xiaowan dam’s reservoir is now being filled, this could have an impact on downstream water levels not seen before.
Although it is only to 2003, Lu, Wang and Grundy-Warr from NUS have data on Chiang Saen – maybe they would know more about getting something more up-to-date? What they have seems to confirm your points.
http://www.water.tkk.fi/English/wr/research/global/myth/04_Lu&al_Myths-of-Mekong.pdf
I wonder if there is any connection to this furor and EGAT’s potential investment in one of those dams. Investment was initially going to be in the dam at Jinghong before the 97 financial crisis, but then they (EGAT) pulled out. Apparently they’ve now targeted investment interest in Nuozhudu… ??
Governance and rule of law in Malaysia
Hi Suzie,
For the record, I would like to state that I’m very pleased with the Malaysian government’s initiative to improve its image – which includes discussion with various interested parties.
The article above is just to enlighten people on who the speakers are.
Also for the record, I would never want Malaysia to model Singapore. While I admire how Singapore has transformed itself into an economic miracle – the price that Singaporeans have paid – i.e. becoming a nation without a soul – is something I would never want.
Has there been a genuine debate on legislations in Singapore by the Bar Council of Singapore, has there been a genuine debate on labour issues by the Singapore Trade Union, has there been a genuine debate on diversity in Singapore, has there been a debate on what native born Singaporeans think of the permanent residents….. the last time I checked – there was none.
The government of Singapore prescribes, the people of Singapore follow. That is something that I can never accept.
Are you kidding me?
Polo, that’s a fair, worrying point. And in their cloistered, hot-house world, who knows?
Forest guardians, forest destroyers
[…] sceptical about simplified and sensationalist explanations of environmental change. No doubt, the Chinese […]
Are you kidding me?
Tench: I wasn’t clear. It is an issue of whether the military brass — or those guided by Prem at least — truly believe the institution of the monarchy itself is at threat in the succession, and can thus justify their stance based on defending a constitution-based institution. I am not saying there IS a genuine threat; just asking whether they really think there is one. And whether that would make their behaviour now qualitatively different from the past when they manufactured threats to protect their privileges.
Are you kidding me?
re: Timothy
I don’t think Federico can be understood to be arguing in favor of Thaksin in THAILAND UNHINGED. His main point is that the constant return of the “Generals” and those behind them to “save Thailand” and “Thai Democracy” is actually what is stopping Thai Democracy from ever happening……..
Governance and rule of law in Malaysia
Greg, I think CSIS is trying to influence Najib government to uphold the rule of law in the governance. Do you think CSIS could make an impact in that direction?
Also when I make a comparison between Singapore and Malaysia, I just wonder why don’t Malaysia follow Singapore diversity vision? So I want to ask you whether the underlying reason was the UMNO politics or whether it was the lack of vision among Malaysian leaders.
Are you kidding me?
Federico- Why have you not read Noam Chomsky? Regardless of its relevance to this particular case, he is a brilliant thinker who, perhaps better than most, espouses “procedural democracy, freedom of speech, and a measure of economic opportunity.”
You analysis here is very well thought out and, sadly, not really that difficult a conclusion to reach for anyone with a marginal education. The Thaksin camp, however, did nothing while in office to actually support or improve the quality of the lives of the people who are supporting it, as far as I could tell. It was more of the same in a different costume- old landed aristocracy being supplanted by new money 20th century aristocracy. Thaksin rose to his position by selling telecommunications equipment to the Burmese junta, he murdered thousands in his war on drugs, and he acted with single-minded greed and conceit in most of his dealings. I’m not sure how this is an improvement.
Stanley A. Weiss on Burma policy
Aiontay: an excellent point, but this is written for a Western audience so I’m not that surprised.
Stanley A. Weiss on Burma policy
Good to see the views of a few different people expressed, like Robert Taylor and Ma Thanegi.