I just do not see any improvement of the situation in the South. When the death toll goes slightly down, army PR states that their heart and mind operations work, and than it goes up again, and so forth.
The few conversations i have had with Generals of some influence convinced me that the ideas of any form of autonomy is simply unacceptable for them. And Abhisit (or any other Prime Minister) is in a position to drastically alter policy on those matters against the wishes of the top brass, even if they would want to.
Any statements by any politician or else in Thailand concerning autonomy for the South i take with a grain of salt, unless the same is mentioned by Prem, Surayudh, Anupong, etc.
And so far i am not aware that those have ever made a statement in favor of autonomy.
We also have not heard yet of any position regarding autonomy from the insurgents. Heck we even do not know exactly who they are and what they want. So far regardless of rumors of secret talks that have been around since at least 3 years, there is not one single public statement by anyone who represents the insurgency. I believe the only inkling we have of what they want is by some captured papers from a few years ago, and those were rather clear in the position for independence, and the removal of Buddhists. Anything else is pure speculation, unfortunately.
We can assume though that they are well trained, and highly capable.
I have to admit though – i am a bit out of touch, and can’t claim any real expertise on the southern mess. I was down there several times in 2007, and came always back even more confused than when i started off, and then in 2008 i was getting more than occupied with the red/yellow conflict (which is a lot easier for me to understand), and i am still mostly occupied with.
Things might have been changed in the last ten something years or so, but when i have been around the borders a bit in the early to mid 90’s i have seen more than a few child soldiers in the KNLA, many in the ages of 14 to 16. I don’t remember if i have photographed any in arms, but i am rather sure that i photographed some with amputated limbs in a KNLA military makeshift hospital near Mannerplaw.
As to the claims of shooting “into arms and legs only” – i am not a military expert, but it sounds highly unlikely that such precision marksmanship is possible in a battle zone. Anyhow, a bullet from an automatic rifle into an arm or a leg causes such extensive damage that it can easily lead to maiming or death. I have seen people die from just a normal pistol shot into the leg bleed to death because an artery was hit. One case in particular was in Bangkok, where hospitals are around the corner, and not in the distance from a day’s or week’s trek through the jungle…
Rich and poor are cliches? Maybe only if you aren’t either.
I am not about to disagree with either Somsak or Oo on the lack of class analysis and a reluctance to directly challenge the monarchy. But, wasn’t it Pasuk who first published the Thai version of Porphant’s CPB story? It was this paper that then went into the Journal of Contemporary Asia in revised format and was taken up by Forbes.
On inequality, this can be defined in various ways, and debates about inequality and fairness run the range of intellectual positions from neo-liberal/orthodox to Marxist. It would seem that a serious discussion and analysis of these might offer useful political opportunities.
Chris: I don’t cite facts here because I am not making ridiculous claims. You blather on about Handley doing this and that with no page references at all. You make claims with no evidence that can be checked against the book. You were the one claiming to want facts. I’ve yet to see anything that you say that is backed by any evidence other than your own opinions, which are shown to be inaccurate when they can be checked against a record.
As to whether to trust Handley because he worked for the FEER, that wasn’t my point (even if you are wrong on the claims you make about the FEER when Handley began with it; in fact, he began with FEER in HK and then Indonesia I think, before Thailand, where he was based with FEER and then several other major magazines such as Institutional Investor). Rather, my claim was that as a journalist, hat Handley covered the events and spoke with hundreds of officials and business people about this period. I still would rather that background than your memories.
By the way, your claim about Handley’s report on the 92 events is bent. Handley was one of the few journalists who questioned the middle-class mobile phone mob claims. You need to re-read (or read) his reports from that period.
Your claim that the central issue in May ‘92 was whether or not the next Prime Minister should be elected also needs to be modified somewhat. The specific issue was (prior to the uprising) whether Suchinda was going to keep his pre-election promise to not become PM. That said, this is a shallow position for the May events were at the end of a longer debate over the constitution, the role of the military and the path of democratization. That is part of what Somsak is saying about the king’s role as a supporter of a narrow constitution.
Your views on what the king could or couldn’t do can only be your own suppositions for they do not match his actions and statements in the period from just prior to the 1991 coup to the May uprising. As to his actions during the crucial days of demonstrations, as far as I am aware, we know little, apart from some comments made in the special supplement Catalyst for Change (or something similar; I don’t have the copy with me) put out by the Nation soon after the events.
Even for you, Hla Oo, the root cause of conflict is not a bloody big word. You can refuse to get your head out of the sand but the events you mentioned, true or false, were merely triggers or sparks that lit the fire if you like. A real and justified sense of unfairness and injustice does underpin all these conflicts and it was already simmering under the surface.
The rest as they say is history, and too bloody and long. I understand your POV though I haven’t had your experience, thank goodness. You must be familiar with Clausewitz’s dictum: War is a continuation of politics by other means. Unless the political will exists to sort things out, this hell on earth will run and run.
This year is my first Christmas with New Mandala. I found this website from reading Professor Giles Ji Ungpakorn’s work of which I couldn’t remember where. Since then, I really enjoy being part of this community arguing about principles, ideals, and values that I would like to see taking roots in Southeast Asia. Thanks Prof. Ungpakorn for your heavy-weight article of which it convinced me that giving a hand makes all the difference. Thanks also to New Mandala for taking initiative and lead the way. Merry Christmas and Happy New Year 2010!
Gruesome executions are the result of Muslim radicalization and this radicalization doesn’t come solely from desire for cultural autonomy. That’s just an excuse, a fertile ground for radical preachers. The “real” independence/autonomy movement has died a slow death over the past ten-twenty years.
Out of all people who know or study history of Pattani only very few think it’s a wise idea to pick up a knife and attack a police station (day of Krue Sue). It’s not the history that is a problem, it’s the brainwashing. What are the chances that those radical teachers will quietly retire once the autonomy or independence is achieved? Zero, me thinks. It can get substantially worse. Just look at what islamists have done to Chechnya in a few years of de facto independence.
The KNLA does not recruit child soldiers…unlike the S.P.D.C. and D.K.B.A. army…I have them recorded and will be in the documentary…”Last Line of Defence KNLA”…along with other human rights abuses caused by the S.P.D.C. Tadmador…and the battle for the 7th brigade went like this….The S.P.D.C. mortar fired the base from a safe distance and sent in its proxy army the D.K.B.A…Democratic Karen Buddhist Army who sent in their child soldiers as human mine sweepers…The K.N.L.A. made the decision to retreat as they could not shoot down Karen children…as I had found out earlier from Gay Kaw the medic, he shoots them in the arms or legs only…same for the S.P.D.C. child soldiers…I wont be drawn into silly debates here either, you will just have to wait for the doco….im Rod Power
Root cause of conflict? It’s a bloody big word, Moe Aung, and now no one really knows why and how this long civil war in Burma actually started.
One main event that was the cause of this ongoing Karen Rebellion was the infamous slaughter of Karen villagers in the Delta in the early forties by a rouge band of BIA men.
Every so-called expert, whether they are Karen or Burmese or foreigner, refers back to that event as one of the crucial triggers whenever they write about the Karen revolution. Even you once or twice did here on New Mandala, if I correctly remembered?
But the guy who was then the in-charge of that BIA troops was our famous Bo Kyaw Zaw, now exile in China, and in his autobiography on BCP website he flatly denied the accusations. You can check it out at this link.
For me a war is a lucrative opportunity for many unscrupulous politicians and generals (they are really wise-thugs in a way) to gain or hold on to the enormous power and wealth the war has brought for them.
To achieve that these thugs, whether they are Burmese Generals or Karen generals, armed many 16 year-old juvenile delinquents and give them the ultimate power of life-0r-death over the local civilian populace they rule.
You wouldn’t really understand what I really meant unless you had the hellish experience of living in one of these war-torn Burmese or Karen villages and being lorded over by these boy soldiers from both sides.
With absolute impunity, they loot, they rape, and they kill. Both sides do that the civilian populace they rule. Both Karen and Burmese armies do that. I have seen the carnage with my own eyes.
It’s a hell on earth and has to be stopped by either overwhelming force or other peaceful means!
Hla Oo’s assessment is very plausible and also understandable, coming from a Tatmadaw vet. Another turn of the screw wouldn’t go amiss. And we all subscribe to peace on earth and goodwill to all men and that. But his optimism however is a bit premature.
When you don’t bother to remove the root cause of conflict, only overwhelming force will maintain a peace of sorts and for how long? We are witnessing the ceasefire agreements with various ethnic armies in various stages of difficulties, if not unravelling, already. Bribing the leaders and buying them off, or more of the old divide and rule, can only go so far until the next round. A vicious circle of conflict, half-hearted futile negotiations, contrived ceasefire deals, and renewed conflict, yet another generation to pass on the feud and hatred.
I agree with Simon that the Thai press is showing its usual condescending and patronizing attitude.
I live and work in Laos and it was easy to see that the outpouring of Lao patriotism and feeling for their athletes was quite spontaneous genuine and heart felt. While the games were not perfect the Lao should be commended for what they were able to accomplish and the truly fun games they organized.
i think we will see that this was quite a watershed and another step in opening the country. The announcement that governmentis now actively encouraging Lao citizens abroad to return (http://bit.ly/4tSor9) and providing them with legal status is one outcome of the games that will have long reaching positive outcomes.
I find it quite ironic that on Thai TV there are there commercials espousing “samakhi” (comradeship) while there is very little in reality to be seen in the country. I think in this instance the games really did galvanize and show the Lao “samakhi”….
You would think Abhisit would know the difference between right and wrong . Since hes was educated at Oxford UK. Why are murderers in Sayamprathet getting only 3 ┬╜ years for kill someone ? while Da Torpedo got 18 (eighteen) years for just insulting the siamese Sakdina. Abhisit is that fair?
LSS > For what its worth, once you have to deal with a full-blown insurgency reconciliation won’t work with the hardliners and splinter groups will continue in more radical ways and it well may take decades until you got rid of the “longtail”. In other words, “hearts & minds” won’t work for everybody and violence (probably becoming more radical) won’t stop over night. But what’s an alternative for the exit than standing the echoes of the “goodbye”? (cp. IRA, ETA and Germany’s RAF)
Nick > Thanks for reminding us that it’s not “black and white” what we are talking about but shades of grey. In any case, I referred to an article on the Thai/Malay PMs meeting and personally think that putting “autonomy” on the agenda (whoever does it) is “capable” from my(!) interpretations of the conflict. Sure there are Muslims that don’t identify with the insurgency, but are they happy with the forced assimilation, being Thai nationals and the repression on pondoks? (If you look at the demands of Haji Sulong 60 years ago, there were not that radical as the might be nowadays after decades of violence. It has enough potential for a primordial narrative.) Again, I don’t think there is a simple solution to the problem but interesting to read that you know more about what I admire than I do. 😉
Stan > I don’t get your point … gruesome executions are of Muslim nature? Or the result of radicalization? Ask yourself where does that radicalization come from and you will get back to cultural autonomy. Personally, I have some doubts that the “loyalization” and arming up civilians will lead to a decrease of violence and mistrust.
Susie > Sorry, I am afraid that we are talking about apples and oranges as I took home other lessons from Machiavelli that may fit Bangkok but not Patani. In addition, so far I understood that officials and security forces had the prime targets from the outset on and that attacks on civil targets were the “new dynamics” that started a over recent years. I must admit that I am a bit surprise that your definition of bloodshed doesn’t include civilians on both sides. In any case, my guts tell me that Malay Muslims would prefer “true democracy” too, but within their own national territory – who ever might sign that agreement.
I was in Phnom Phen, staying close by the German Embassy, when Hun Sen dropped his bombshell announcement – about how he was stepping up opposition to the current Thai government. Then – later – appointed Thaksin “economic adviser”.
It was vintage Hun Sen – and wow : did diplomat’s faces drop !
Personally I think Hun Sen’s number one target in this ever-more subtle, but brutal powerplay is Newin Chidchob. Khmer political warlord in Thailand’s lower Isaarn – and seen as a “traitor” by Thaksin – everyone I spoke to in Phnom Phen thought Hun Sen was aiming at settling scores with Chidchob.
I do know that the verncular newspapers (Tamil and Mandarin) do report with a race perspective.
However, I am sure these newspapers do not promote racist views as Utusan does.
For example, Utusan had carried the following editorials, stories, that directly attack non- Malays.
For instance, since the GE of 2008, there have been articles that ask Malays to rise-up and defend themselves against the non-Malays, a story of a non-Malay MP (targeting Teresa Kok) being assasinated by an angered Malay and many more.
I am sure no vernacular newspaper goes to this extent.
Thai state has the obligation to protect lives and freedoms of all its citizens, it can’t just pass the buck to yet unnamed Muslim leaders and abandon hundreds of thousands of loyal subjects there.
There’s no reason to believe that violence would stop if the region is granted autonomy. Those who cut Buddhist (and Muslim) heads off and those who want autonomy are not the same people and they pursue different goals.
I think, after the initial power struggle subsides, whoever assumes the throne will be largely irrelevant to what happens in the country – I can’t agree more with former US ambassador’s assessment: “The King reigns but doesn’t rule”. It could have been different ten-twenty years ago but it is a fact of life now.
Claims to moral superiority would be based on who preserves King Bhumibol’s legacy better rather than on allegiance to the current occupant.
The country is lucky to get over Thaksin challenge before any real power vacuum – I can’t imagine how he could be contained if he started his ascendancy now rather than ten years ago.
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What happens in Yala…
“Chris Beale”:
I just do not see any improvement of the situation in the South. When the death toll goes slightly down, army PR states that their heart and mind operations work, and than it goes up again, and so forth.
The few conversations i have had with Generals of some influence convinced me that the ideas of any form of autonomy is simply unacceptable for them. And Abhisit (or any other Prime Minister) is in a position to drastically alter policy on those matters against the wishes of the top brass, even if they would want to.
Any statements by any politician or else in Thailand concerning autonomy for the South i take with a grain of salt, unless the same is mentioned by Prem, Surayudh, Anupong, etc.
And so far i am not aware that those have ever made a statement in favor of autonomy.
We also have not heard yet of any position regarding autonomy from the insurgents. Heck we even do not know exactly who they are and what they want. So far regardless of rumors of secret talks that have been around since at least 3 years, there is not one single public statement by anyone who represents the insurgency. I believe the only inkling we have of what they want is by some captured papers from a few years ago, and those were rather clear in the position for independence, and the removal of Buddhists. Anything else is pure speculation, unfortunately.
We can assume though that they are well trained, and highly capable.
I have to admit though – i am a bit out of touch, and can’t claim any real expertise on the southern mess. I was down there several times in 2007, and came always back even more confused than when i started off, and then in 2008 i was getting more than occupied with the red/yellow conflict (which is a lot easier for me to understand), and i am still mostly occupied with.
Dave Everett and fighting for the KNLA
“Rod Power”:
Things might have been changed in the last ten something years or so, but when i have been around the borders a bit in the early to mid 90’s i have seen more than a few child soldiers in the KNLA, many in the ages of 14 to 16. I don’t remember if i have photographed any in arms, but i am rather sure that i photographed some with amputated limbs in a KNLA military makeshift hospital near Mannerplaw.
As to the claims of shooting “into arms and legs only” – i am not a military expert, but it sounds highly unlikely that such precision marksmanship is possible in a battle zone. Anyhow, a bullet from an automatic rifle into an arm or a leg causes such extensive damage that it can easily lead to maiming or death. I have seen people die from just a normal pistol shot into the leg bleed to death because an artery was hit. One case in particular was in Bangkok, where hospitals are around the corner, and not in the distance from a day’s or week’s trek through the jungle…
Fair’s fair – Pasuk on Thailand in transition
Rich and poor are cliches? Maybe only if you aren’t either.
I am not about to disagree with either Somsak or Oo on the lack of class analysis and a reluctance to directly challenge the monarchy. But, wasn’t it Pasuk who first published the Thai version of Porphant’s CPB story? It was this paper that then went into the Journal of Contemporary Asia in revised format and was taken up by Forbes.
On inequality, this can be defined in various ways, and debates about inequality and fairness run the range of intellectual positions from neo-liberal/orthodox to Marxist. It would seem that a serious discussion and analysis of these might offer useful political opportunities.
Thaksin on Crown Prince Vajiralongkorn
Chris: I don’t cite facts here because I am not making ridiculous claims. You blather on about Handley doing this and that with no page references at all. You make claims with no evidence that can be checked against the book. You were the one claiming to want facts. I’ve yet to see anything that you say that is backed by any evidence other than your own opinions, which are shown to be inaccurate when they can be checked against a record.
As to whether to trust Handley because he worked for the FEER, that wasn’t my point (even if you are wrong on the claims you make about the FEER when Handley began with it; in fact, he began with FEER in HK and then Indonesia I think, before Thailand, where he was based with FEER and then several other major magazines such as Institutional Investor). Rather, my claim was that as a journalist, hat Handley covered the events and spoke with hundreds of officials and business people about this period. I still would rather that background than your memories.
By the way, your claim about Handley’s report on the 92 events is bent. Handley was one of the few journalists who questioned the middle-class mobile phone mob claims. You need to re-read (or read) his reports from that period.
Your claim that the central issue in May ‘92 was whether or not the next Prime Minister should be elected also needs to be modified somewhat. The specific issue was (prior to the uprising) whether Suchinda was going to keep his pre-election promise to not become PM. That said, this is a shallow position for the May events were at the end of a longer debate over the constitution, the role of the military and the path of democratization. That is part of what Somsak is saying about the king’s role as a supporter of a narrow constitution.
Your views on what the king could or couldn’t do can only be your own suppositions for they do not match his actions and statements in the period from just prior to the 1991 coup to the May uprising. As to his actions during the crucial days of demonstrations, as far as I am aware, we know little, apart from some comments made in the special supplement Catalyst for Change (or something similar; I don’t have the copy with me) put out by the Nation soon after the events.
Dave Everett and fighting for the KNLA
Even for you, Hla Oo, the root cause of conflict is not a bloody big word. You can refuse to get your head out of the sand but the events you mentioned, true or false, were merely triggers or sparks that lit the fire if you like. A real and justified sense of unfairness and injustice does underpin all these conflicts and it was already simmering under the surface.
The rest as they say is history, and too bloody and long. I understand your POV though I haven’t had your experience, thank goodness. You must be familiar with Clausewitz’s dictum: War is a continuation of politics by other means. Unless the political will exists to sort things out, this hell on earth will run and run.
Merry Christmas from New Mandala
would be nice to see nich and andrew as the dancing elves, instead of the usual suspects…hehehe. merry christmas to all new mandala readers!
Merry Christmas from New Mandala
This year is my first Christmas with New Mandala. I found this website from reading Professor Giles Ji Ungpakorn’s work of which I couldn’t remember where. Since then, I really enjoy being part of this community arguing about principles, ideals, and values that I would like to see taking roots in Southeast Asia. Thanks Prof. Ungpakorn for your heavy-weight article of which it convinced me that giving a hand makes all the difference. Thanks also to New Mandala for taking initiative and lead the way. Merry Christmas and Happy New Year 2010!
What happens in Yala…
Gruesome executions are the result of Muslim radicalization and this radicalization doesn’t come solely from desire for cultural autonomy. That’s just an excuse, a fertile ground for radical preachers. The “real” independence/autonomy movement has died a slow death over the past ten-twenty years.
Out of all people who know or study history of Pattani only very few think it’s a wise idea to pick up a knife and attack a police station (day of Krue Sue). It’s not the history that is a problem, it’s the brainwashing. What are the chances that those radical teachers will quietly retire once the autonomy or independence is achieved? Zero, me thinks. It can get substantially worse. Just look at what islamists have done to Chechnya in a few years of de facto independence.
Dave Everett and fighting for the KNLA
The KNLA does not recruit child soldiers…unlike the S.P.D.C. and D.K.B.A. army…I have them recorded and will be in the documentary…”Last Line of Defence KNLA”…along with other human rights abuses caused by the S.P.D.C. Tadmador…and the battle for the 7th brigade went like this….The S.P.D.C. mortar fired the base from a safe distance and sent in its proxy army the D.K.B.A…Democratic Karen Buddhist Army who sent in their child soldiers as human mine sweepers…The K.N.L.A. made the decision to retreat as they could not shoot down Karen children…as I had found out earlier from Gay Kaw the medic, he shoots them in the arms or legs only…same for the S.P.D.C. child soldiers…I wont be drawn into silly debates here either, you will just have to wait for the doco….im Rod Power
Dave Everett and fighting for the KNLA
Root cause of conflict? It’s a bloody big word, Moe Aung, and now no one really knows why and how this long civil war in Burma actually started.
One main event that was the cause of this ongoing Karen Rebellion was the infamous slaughter of Karen villagers in the Delta in the early forties by a rouge band of BIA men.
Every so-called expert, whether they are Karen or Burmese or foreigner, refers back to that event as one of the crucial triggers whenever they write about the Karen revolution. Even you once or twice did here on New Mandala, if I correctly remembered?
But the guy who was then the in-charge of that BIA troops was our famous Bo Kyaw Zaw, now exile in China, and in his autobiography on BCP website he flatly denied the accusations. You can check it out at this link.
http://www.cpburma.org/biography.htm
For me a war is a lucrative opportunity for many unscrupulous politicians and generals (they are really wise-thugs in a way) to gain or hold on to the enormous power and wealth the war has brought for them.
To achieve that these thugs, whether they are Burmese Generals or Karen generals, armed many 16 year-old juvenile delinquents and give them the ultimate power of life-0r-death over the local civilian populace they rule.
You wouldn’t really understand what I really meant unless you had the hellish experience of living in one of these war-torn Burmese or Karen villages and being lorded over by these boy soldiers from both sides.
With absolute impunity, they loot, they rape, and they kill. Both sides do that the civilian populace they rule. Both Karen and Burmese armies do that. I have seen the carnage with my own eyes.
It’s a hell on earth and has to be stopped by either overwhelming force or other peaceful means!
Utusan Malaysia – A Messenger of Hate?
Actually there is no racism in Malaysia (which is true), but there is something called “discrete apartheid” and its far worse than racism.
Dave Everett and fighting for the KNLA
Hla Oo’s assessment is very plausible and also understandable, coming from a Tatmadaw vet. Another turn of the screw wouldn’t go amiss. And we all subscribe to peace on earth and goodwill to all men and that. But his optimism however is a bit premature.
When you don’t bother to remove the root cause of conflict, only overwhelming force will maintain a peace of sorts and for how long? We are witnessing the ceasefire agreements with various ethnic armies in various stages of difficulties, if not unravelling, already. Bribing the leaders and buying them off, or more of the old divide and rule, can only go so far until the next round. A vicious circle of conflict, half-hearted futile negotiations, contrived ceasefire deals, and renewed conflict, yet another generation to pass on the feud and hatred.
“First-time SEA Games host gives us a lesson or two”
I agree with Simon that the Thai press is showing its usual condescending and patronizing attitude.
I live and work in Laos and it was easy to see that the outpouring of Lao patriotism and feeling for their athletes was quite spontaneous genuine and heart felt. While the games were not perfect the Lao should be commended for what they were able to accomplish and the truly fun games they organized.
i think we will see that this was quite a watershed and another step in opening the country. The announcement that governmentis now actively encouraging Lao citizens abroad to return (http://bit.ly/4tSor9) and providing them with legal status is one outcome of the games that will have long reaching positive outcomes.
I find it quite ironic that on Thai TV there are there commercials espousing “samakhi” (comradeship) while there is very little in reality to be seen in the country. I think in this instance the games really did galvanize and show the Lao “samakhi”….
Send a card to Da
You would think Abhisit would know the difference between right and wrong . Since hes was educated at Oxford UK. Why are murderers in Sayamprathet getting only 3 ┬╜ years for kill someone ? while Da Torpedo got 18 (eighteen) years for just insulting the siamese Sakdina. Abhisit is that fair?
Send a card to Da
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р╕нр╕вр╣Ир╕▓р╕Зр╣Бр╕Чр╣Йр╕Ир╕гр╕╡р╕З р╕Вр╕нр╣Гр╕лр╣Йр╕нр╕│р╕бр╕▓р╕Хр╕кр╕▒р╕Бр╕Фр╕╡р╕Щр╕▓р╕Ир╣Ир╕Зр╕Ир╕╡р╕Ър╕лр╕▓р╕в р╕нр╕Шр╕Ыр╕Х р╕Ир╣Ир╕Зр╣Ар╕Ыр╕▒р╕Щр╕Вр╕нр╕З
р╕Ыр╕зр╕Зр╕Кр╕Щр╕Хр╕ер╕нр╕Фр╣Др╕Ыр╣Бр╕ер╕░ р╕нр╕╡р╕кр╕гр╕ар╕▓р╕Юр╕Ир╣Ир╕Зр╣Ар╕Ыр╕▒р╕Щр╕Вр╕нр╕Зр╕Др╕╕р╕У р╕Фр╕▓ р╕Хр╕нр╕гр╣Мр╕Ыр╕╡р╣Вр╕Фр╕Фр╣Йр╕зр╕вр╕Щр╕░
What happens in Yala…
LSS > For what its worth, once you have to deal with a full-blown insurgency reconciliation won’t work with the hardliners and splinter groups will continue in more radical ways and it well may take decades until you got rid of the “longtail”. In other words, “hearts & minds” won’t work for everybody and violence (probably becoming more radical) won’t stop over night. But what’s an alternative for the exit than standing the echoes of the “goodbye”? (cp. IRA, ETA and Germany’s RAF)
Nick > Thanks for reminding us that it’s not “black and white” what we are talking about but shades of grey. In any case, I referred to an article on the Thai/Malay PMs meeting and personally think that putting “autonomy” on the agenda (whoever does it) is “capable” from my(!) interpretations of the conflict. Sure there are Muslims that don’t identify with the insurgency, but are they happy with the forced assimilation, being Thai nationals and the repression on pondoks? (If you look at the demands of Haji Sulong 60 years ago, there were not that radical as the might be nowadays after decades of violence. It has enough potential for a primordial narrative.) Again, I don’t think there is a simple solution to the problem but interesting to read that you know more about what I admire than I do. 😉
Stan > I don’t get your point … gruesome executions are of Muslim nature? Or the result of radicalization? Ask yourself where does that radicalization come from and you will get back to cultural autonomy. Personally, I have some doubts that the “loyalization” and arming up civilians will lead to a decrease of violence and mistrust.
Susie > Sorry, I am afraid that we are talking about apples and oranges as I took home other lessons from Machiavelli that may fit Bangkok but not Patani. In addition, so far I understood that officials and security forces had the prime targets from the outset on and that attacks on civil targets were the “new dynamics” that started a over recent years. I must admit that I am a bit surprise that your definition of bloodshed doesn’t include civilians on both sides. In any case, my guts tell me that Malay Muslims would prefer “true democracy” too, but within their own national territory – who ever might sign that agreement.
Thayer on Cambodian power politics
I was in Phnom Phen, staying close by the German Embassy, when Hun Sen dropped his bombshell announcement – about how he was stepping up opposition to the current Thai government. Then – later – appointed Thaksin “economic adviser”.
It was vintage Hun Sen – and wow : did diplomat’s faces drop !
Personally I think Hun Sen’s number one target in this ever-more subtle, but brutal powerplay is Newin Chidchob. Khmer political warlord in Thailand’s lower Isaarn – and seen as a “traitor” by Thaksin – everyone I spoke to in Phnom Phen thought Hun Sen was aiming at settling scores with Chidchob.
Utusan Malaysia – A Messenger of Hate?
Hi there Koko,
I do know that the verncular newspapers (Tamil and Mandarin) do report with a race perspective.
However, I am sure these newspapers do not promote racist views as Utusan does.
For example, Utusan had carried the following editorials, stories, that directly attack non- Malays.
For instance, since the GE of 2008, there have been articles that ask Malays to rise-up and defend themselves against the non-Malays, a story of a non-Malay MP (targeting Teresa Kok) being assasinated by an angered Malay and many more.
I am sure no vernacular newspaper goes to this extent.
What happens in Yala…
Thai state has the obligation to protect lives and freedoms of all its citizens, it can’t just pass the buck to yet unnamed Muslim leaders and abandon hundreds of thousands of loyal subjects there.
There’s no reason to believe that violence would stop if the region is granted autonomy. Those who cut Buddhist (and Muslim) heads off and those who want autonomy are not the same people and they pursue different goals.
Bangkok Post on the crown prince
I think, after the initial power struggle subsides, whoever assumes the throne will be largely irrelevant to what happens in the country – I can’t agree more with former US ambassador’s assessment: “The King reigns but doesn’t rule”. It could have been different ten-twenty years ago but it is a fact of life now.
Claims to moral superiority would be based on who preserves King Bhumibol’s legacy better rather than on allegiance to the current occupant.
The country is lucky to get over Thaksin challenge before any real power vacuum – I can’t imagine how he could be contained if he started his ascendancy now rather than ten years ago.