“The success of the PAD as an extra-parliamentary opposition is easily seen in the removal of two prime ministers post-coup and being the real opposition to Thaskin before that.”
well, yes, you might be right that it can “easily be seen”. but that’s just a “tip of the iceberg” and it would be too naive to consider this “easily seen” part as an actual reason of the removal you mention !
however what is not as easily seen – or rather everyone pretends not seeing it? (as that proverbial elephant in the room) – is the REAL reasons why Samak and Somchai (not to mention Thaksin) were ousted and their parties dissolved : the HUGE, uncomparable backing up of PAD by army, judiciary, beurocracy, elite, huge corporations and even NGOs. only funds alone necessary to maintaing PAD’s 193 days of “siege”, with state-of-art 24/7 LIVE mutli-channels broadcast which were envy of even police and other Thai MSM, also professional logistics supply which even US army in Iraq and Afghan would envy (thanks to Chamlong’s organazational skills and unlimited funds given by “sponsors”).
not to mention the other support – up to the highest level (as some unprecedented public appearances revealed)
so, Abey – be honest and don’t try to pull here some such cheap reasoning as “sucess … as an extra-parliamentary opposition” ! because most of people here know very well that PAD was mostly (if not only) and merely a “cover” (or figurhead) for the GIANT COMBINED reactionary force which actually started all this since 2006 (0r even 2005?) – all those players.
Prasong, Surayudh, Dhanin (from CP), Pa P. to mention only a few here …
(aka “Amart” as it is called shortly – BTW reportedly a term coined by …. Pridi back in 70s or even 60s ?)
and you just say – “sucess … as an extra-parliamentary opposition” ? give me a break !
PAD was, is and WILL be NOTHING , zero, nada – without those guys.
Prasong was on PAD stage since 2006. – you wondered why? 😉
here in M. Nelson’s post there are photos of him carassing tenderly Sondhi …
well, I was talking only about T-shirts, politics aside.
of course it is not only making money for Sondhi – or perhaps more exactly not only making money ONLY from T-shirts (but also aiming at “frying bigger fish” – getting more money – when and IF the new PAD party will get some MP seats and bargaining leverage in coalition gov. and therefore entitled to certain size piece of the “cake” – not to mention IF PAD party leader – Sondhi? – becomes a PM – OH! THEN it will be a good dough ! )
however whether you agree or disagree – the fact remains that to be able to wear NEW Yellow-green shirts PAD congregation will have to buy those new clothes – wouldn’t they? or do you think kind uncles Chamlong and Sondhi are gonna give away FREE T-shirts.
so, I was commenting on this single point – on selling MORE T-shirts.
and it is a good fund-rising trick, I must admit. 😀
PAD politics though I won’t discuss just yet – will wait a bit longer for them to define and clarify them better. although Michael H. Nelson yesterday has already provided quite a good overview.
To take Charles F’s post (and others) a step further – much the same thing could be said about New Mandala and Bangkok Pundit (amongst others). The earnest discussions that take place on these sites are almost completely irrelevant (perhaps even a waste of space) – since the vast majority of the people who contribute have absolutely no input in the region’s governance. About the only thing that the ‘concerned’ contribute to this region is paying the salaries of the local staff of civil society organizations. To local powermongers, such organizations are little more than a joke or a minor irritation as they suck their respective countries dry. (The sort of) Blogging (we see here) will change nothing, since you can’t fight violently-enforced injustice with a dialogue that never touches those who hold all the levers of power. It is, also, highly unlikely that the Junta would ever want to engage in any dialogue that wouldn’t automatically lead to a quick buck.
I’m not an idealist or a cynic. I’m a realist. As such, I don’t think that this online petition will have any effect one way or the other with the SPDC. In the past they haven’t cared one whit what anyone thinks; why would they care now?
I have bad news for George Clooney. Other than his family, a few close friends, and women who think he’s sexy, no one cares what he thinks about anything, on any subject.
I only had the chance to scan through this book looking for some specific information, but there were two parts where I did stop and read, and smile.
The land speculation in the Rangsit area linked to the Borisat and their license to dig canals to bring land into cultivation was the forerunner of the Bangkok land speculations to come in the last 20 years or so. When Bangkok acquaintances tell you how their families own land out by the Rangsit numbered klongs you can smile at where this came from.
The other part was when van der Heide had problems with the farmers living near my local klong, Klong Prawet Buriram, over the level of water in the canal. There was a clash between the needs of navigation and the flooding of farmland probably due to lack of locks. The farmland had been sold by the then king to finance the canal digging.
Apparently, the conspiracy theories have not died down. In an article yesterday in The Irrawaddy, David Paquette states that “Speculation that Yettaw had in fact been allowed to enter Suu Kyi’s home by security personnel has been fueled by a statement from a Rangoon taxi driver”
Nang Gor makes a good point, and one that should be oft pointed out to the self-crowned e-crusaders of social or political change.
And particularly in regards to Burma where 50yrs of brutal military rule is hardly going to be influenced by anything.
Lets face it, Cyclone Nargis made no difference, so I daresay a petition signed by thousands of chest-(or is that mouse) beaters promising to throw them in jail if the Generals ever give up power isn’t really going to make a difference or send the right signals now is it?
Thanks for the analysis, Ajarn Somsak.
IMO, for Abhisit to hang on that long he will need to be a very skilful politician, or blessed from above (or both)
I know Thailand is not a normal democracy and electoral cycles do not apply to the same extent as other democracies, but could now actually be not a bad time to be in opposition?
(to let the government take the flak for the economy, and eventually disintegrate, or fall to the inevitable corruption scandal?)
I suppose a lot depends on when the economic recovery is expected, what happens regarding the banned politicians, and also the health of certain individuals.
FWIW, I too have great sympathy for the aspirations of the ordinary rank & file reds.
I find it disappointing that the PAD has gone the route of forming a political party to fight the next election. This is for two reasons. First, although Thailand surely does need a party that would be different from the corrupt parties that now exist, the PAD isn’t the one needed. Second that the PAD has become the most successful civilian extra-parliamentary opposition that Thailand has have ever seen.
In my view the party Thailand needs is a genuine social democrat/socialist party either on the European model or similar to the Congress Party in India. Although these parties are often discredited they do tend to push countries in a more progressive direction and they often hold a fairly wide range of views so they act as a shelter for those with an even further left agenda.
What the PAD offers is a rather mixed up set of ideals and the result will probably be splits similar to the demise of the Palang Dharma.
The success of the PAD as an extra-parliamentary opposition is easily seen in the removal of two prime ministers post-coup and being the real opposition to Thaskin before that. If it stayed that way it would be a threat to any overly corrupt government. I suspect it causes the Democrats to look over their shoulders.
Thanks for your comment. Concerning the number of people who attended the second day, I have consulted with Nick Nostitz, who was there. He confirmed your information about the capacity of the stadium and that many seats were unoccupied. However, he also pointed out that there were many people on the football field and outside the stadium. Altogether, he estimates that 30,000 people or somewhat fewer attended the meeting
Estimates for the first day ranged from 2,000 to 5,000 participants.
Amongst the interesting questions following the establishment of a PAD party is what will happen with ASTV. Even at Rangsit University, PAD was proud about this most important means of communication, and they had satellite dishes and membership forms on display. However, as newspaper commentators already have pointed out, a political party must follow the party law and the election law and their restrictions re the use of electronic mass media. Thus the question of what the PAD will do with ASTV, since they cannot possibly give it up without cutting ties with many up-country supporters of both the movement and the party.
As for the ‘reds’, there is also the possibility that the longer the Abhisit government stays in place, the longer the reds will be able to hold together (we have seen with the PAD how hatred of a common enemy is a strong unifying force)
Well, if you continue to “not winning” for a long time (and one or two years from now would be ‘longer’ for the Red Shirts, as they already lost big since Sep 2006), the difficulty of hoding on would be greater despite the hatred for the Abhisit government.
If we look at the lesson of the PAD, toward the end of August last year prior to the seizing of Gov House, their morale was clearly waning. There’s even complain among PAD supporters that “Why Someone who we are fighting for has not come out to help us yet?” (yes, they menat HMK!). The complain was widesrpead enough among them, some wrote on Manager webboard! In fact one could say that the tactic of seizing the Gov House was in large part a response to this waing morale. But just two weeks later, the Court dismissed Samak (together with the military refusal to remove them as ordered by Samak), and the PAD sprang back to life again.
As you know, I have declared my political support of the Red Shirt movement. I still have great sympathy for them, but I view their prospect less rosy than most of them do. For one thing, many of them believe that Abhisit gov is failing and being torn by in-fighting (Dems v Newin party) and will be forced to call general elections soon. I on the other hand think Abhisit will try to stay on a few years and has good chance of doing so, despite internal fighting among his coalition and the economic difficulty. I have in mind Prem gov in the 1980s which also faced similar situation (in fact, worse as the military was not always on their side), but manage to stay on for quite a few years. Abhisit needs not hope to stay as long as Prem, but I do think he can reasonably expect to hold on till the next scheduled general elections in over two years time. Should that happen, the Red Shirts as a political movement will be greatly tested.
One of the really big problems for Thailand: no genuine respect for common people among groups in power. Common people are simply to be manipulated-a kind of pawn-to serve the cause of some influential group. At a gathering, they usually sit back and acquiesced to self-serving oratory pounded out by those messiahs who, upon enough repetitions of their prophecies, mistake their own fallacies for truths.
Yes, i am aware of the fact that the stadium seats only 20 000 people.
But there were also many people outside the stadium in the surroundings. Another few thousand people were also inside the arena during the march of the provincial chapters of the PAD in the later afternoon.
Of course the crowd thinned rapidly when the heavy downpours began.
What also should not be forgotten is that possibly millions all over the country watched the event on ASTV.
As has been pointe dout it is very easy to get a group of diverse minded people to unite against something whether it be Thaksin or Abhisit or Prem. However, when then trying to find common values to unite around the diversity of the group becomes a problem resulting either in disintegration or a vague and fuzzy common goal meaning all things to all men and which will probably only delay the inevitable.
The PAD face the problem that many of their supporters and especailly sympathisers just wanted Abhisit as PM. They now have that. The PAD would seem to need the Democrats to be very badly tarnished or to fall apart for them to succeed. As the Democrats have always managed to retain a fairly large loyal base that seem sunlikely and the PAD will probably only manage to convince a few lesser Dems to swop party and risk running against a party that seems to get its votes on party loyalty rather than individual following. The other route to success would be fo rthe PAD to hire in a few influential heavyweights who can deliver a variety of constituencies. Even though none of us are sure of the meaning of new politics, we can probably assume the traditonal hiring of sitting MPs and influential people is not in line with the new ethos, so it looks like it will be difficult for the PAD party.
As an aside. It is funny how whenever Thaksin has an impending court decision the red/PTP action or manouvers seem to heat up. Well Sondhi et al are seeing the investigations into PAD at GH and airport get slightly more serious, the PAD has seemingly been abandonded by a few “backers” and of course there was the curious affair of the assassination attempt. Setting up a politcal party increases leverage somewhat especially when the EC could be forced to rule on eligibility to be leader, and the party itself would seem to be a threat to the current status quo at the next election through vote splitting.
30,000 people packed in Thammasat Rangsit main stadium seems not possible since its capacity is only for 20,000 seats! Thank you again for your great report 🙂
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PAD tries a political party
@Les Abey
well, yes, you might be right that it can “easily be seen”. but that’s just a “tip of the iceberg” and it would be too naive to consider this “easily seen” part as an actual reason of the removal you mention !
however what is not as easily seen – or rather everyone pretends not seeing it? (as that proverbial elephant in the room) – is the REAL reasons why Samak and Somchai (not to mention Thaksin) were ousted and their parties dissolved : the HUGE, uncomparable backing up of PAD by army, judiciary, beurocracy, elite, huge corporations and even NGOs. only funds alone necessary to maintaing PAD’s 193 days of “siege”, with state-of-art 24/7 LIVE mutli-channels broadcast which were envy of even police and other Thai MSM, also professional logistics supply which even US army in Iraq and Afghan would envy (thanks to Chamlong’s organazational skills and unlimited funds given by “sponsors”).
not to mention the other support – up to the highest level (as some unprecedented public appearances revealed)
so, Abey – be honest and don’t try to pull here some such cheap reasoning as “sucess … as an extra-parliamentary opposition” ! because most of people here know very well that PAD was mostly (if not only) and merely a “cover” (or figurhead) for the GIANT COMBINED reactionary force which actually started all this since 2006 (0r even 2005?) – all those players.
Prasong, Surayudh, Dhanin (from CP), Pa P. to mention only a few here …
(aka “Amart” as it is called shortly – BTW reportedly a term coined by …. Pridi back in 70s or even 60s ?)
and you just say – “sucess … as an extra-parliamentary opposition” ? give me a break !
PAD was, is and WILL be NOTHING , zero, nada – without those guys.
Prasong was on PAD stage since 2006. – you wondered why? 😉
here in M. Nelson’s post there are photos of him carassing tenderly Sondhi …
PAD celebrates decision to found political party
@Nick #5
well, I was talking only about T-shirts, politics aside.
of course it is not only making money for Sondhi – or perhaps more exactly not only making money ONLY from T-shirts (but also aiming at “frying bigger fish” – getting more money – when and IF the new PAD party will get some MP seats and bargaining leverage in coalition gov. and therefore entitled to certain size piece of the “cake” – not to mention IF PAD party leader – Sondhi? – becomes a PM – OH! THEN it will be a good dough ! )
however whether you agree or disagree – the fact remains that to be able to wear NEW Yellow-green shirts PAD congregation will have to buy those new clothes – wouldn’t they? or do you think kind uncles Chamlong and Sondhi are gonna give away FREE T-shirts.
so, I was commenting on this single point – on selling MORE T-shirts.
and it is a good fund-rising trick, I must admit. 😀
PAD politics though I won’t discuss just yet – will wait a bit longer for them to define and clarify them better. although Michael H. Nelson yesterday has already provided quite a good overview.
Burma watching and the internet
To take Charles F’s post (and others) a step further – much the same thing could be said about New Mandala and Bangkok Pundit (amongst others). The earnest discussions that take place on these sites are almost completely irrelevant (perhaps even a waste of space) – since the vast majority of the people who contribute have absolutely no input in the region’s governance. About the only thing that the ‘concerned’ contribute to this region is paying the salaries of the local staff of civil society organizations. To local powermongers, such organizations are little more than a joke or a minor irritation as they suck their respective countries dry. (The sort of) Blogging (we see here) will change nothing, since you can’t fight violently-enforced injustice with a dialogue that never touches those who hold all the levers of power. It is, also, highly unlikely that the Junta would ever want to engage in any dialogue that wouldn’t automatically lead to a quick buck.
The crushing of the Red Shirts
And get ready for a new round of Red protests for “true democracy” PMThaksinelson Shinawatranela style ???
“Supreme Court to hear Thaksin’s assets seizure case on July 16”
in
http://nationmultimedia.com/breakingnews/30103840/Supreme-Court-to-hear-Thaksins-assets-seizure-case
Burma watching and the internet
I’m not an idealist or a cynic. I’m a realist. As such, I don’t think that this online petition will have any effect one way or the other with the SPDC. In the past they haven’t cared one whit what anyone thinks; why would they care now?
I have bad news for George Clooney. Other than his family, a few close friends, and women who think he’s sexy, no one cares what he thinks about anything, on any subject.
Review of Brummelhuis
I only had the chance to scan through this book looking for some specific information, but there were two parts where I did stop and read, and smile.
The land speculation in the Rangsit area linked to the Borisat and their license to dig canals to bring land into cultivation was the forerunner of the Bangkok land speculations to come in the last 20 years or so. When Bangkok acquaintances tell you how their families own land out by the Rangsit numbered klongs you can smile at where this came from.
The other part was when van der Heide had problems with the farmers living near my local klong, Klong Prawet Buriram, over the level of water in the canal. There was a clash between the needs of navigation and the flooding of farmland probably due to lack of locks. The farmland had been sold by the then king to finance the canal digging.
Andrew Selth on conspiracies and cock-ups
Apparently, the conspiracy theories have not died down. In an article yesterday in The Irrawaddy, David Paquette states that “Speculation that Yettaw had in fact been allowed to enter Suu Kyi’s home by security personnel has been fueled by a statement from a Rangoon taxi driver”
The sufficiency panacea
here is this ISOC ad :
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3pVfaQ8fZno
also :
http://mosothai.com
http://mosothai.com/main.php
Burma watching and the internet
Nang Gor makes a good point, and one that should be oft pointed out to the self-crowned e-crusaders of social or political change.
And particularly in regards to Burma where 50yrs of brutal military rule is hardly going to be influenced by anything.
Lets face it, Cyclone Nargis made no difference, so I daresay a petition signed by thousands of chest-(or is that mouse) beaters promising to throw them in jail if the Generals ever give up power isn’t really going to make a difference or send the right signals now is it?
Burma watching and the internet
you,r rite, please support our worldwide protest on 30.may in front of every Burmese embassy.LONDON;BERLIN,NEW YORK ect…
http://picasaweb.google.com/lunswe/27509#5340843552674242818
The crushing of the Red Shirts
Can NN show us any action similar by the PAD?
check this out:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KFSkMPJItWg&feature=related
of course this is a doctored movie, the red shirts never did this, and if they did, they are yellow shirts who put red shirts to confuse the public
as jakrapop says:
we’re peaceful and mature people, unlike the yellow shirts:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gT0390RuKYc&feature=related
nuff said
PAD celebrates decision to found political party
Thank you for your clearify Nick 🙂
I just hope the PAD learnt something of their past too and hope their millions are still out there for them when they need them too.
PAD tries a political party
Thanks for the analysis, Ajarn Somsak.
IMO, for Abhisit to hang on that long he will need to be a very skilful politician, or blessed from above (or both)
I know Thailand is not a normal democracy and electoral cycles do not apply to the same extent as other democracies, but could now actually be not a bad time to be in opposition?
(to let the government take the flak for the economy, and eventually disintegrate, or fall to the inevitable corruption scandal?)
I suppose a lot depends on when the economic recovery is expected, what happens regarding the banned politicians, and also the health of certain individuals.
FWIW, I too have great sympathy for the aspirations of the ordinary rank & file reds.
PAD tries a political party
I find it disappointing that the PAD has gone the route of forming a political party to fight the next election. This is for two reasons. First, although Thailand surely does need a party that would be different from the corrupt parties that now exist, the PAD isn’t the one needed. Second that the PAD has become the most successful civilian extra-parliamentary opposition that Thailand has have ever seen.
In my view the party Thailand needs is a genuine social democrat/socialist party either on the European model or similar to the Congress Party in India. Although these parties are often discredited they do tend to push countries in a more progressive direction and they often hold a fairly wide range of views so they act as a shelter for those with an even further left agenda.
What the PAD offers is a rather mixed up set of ideals and the result will probably be splits similar to the demise of the Palang Dharma.
The success of the PAD as an extra-parliamentary opposition is easily seen in the removal of two prime ministers post-coup and being the real opposition to Thaskin before that. If it stayed that way it would be a threat to any overly corrupt government. I suspect it causes the Democrats to look over their shoulders.
PAD tries a political party
Ajarn Somsak:
Thanks for your comment. Concerning the number of people who attended the second day, I have consulted with Nick Nostitz, who was there. He confirmed your information about the capacity of the stadium and that many seats were unoccupied. However, he also pointed out that there were many people on the football field and outside the stadium. Altogether, he estimates that 30,000 people or somewhat fewer attended the meeting
Estimates for the first day ranged from 2,000 to 5,000 participants.
Amongst the interesting questions following the establishment of a PAD party is what will happen with ASTV. Even at Rangsit University, PAD was proud about this most important means of communication, and they had satellite dishes and membership forms on display. However, as newspaper commentators already have pointed out, a political party must follow the party law and the election law and their restrictions re the use of electronic mass media. Thus the question of what the PAD will do with ASTV, since they cannot possibly give it up without cutting ties with many up-country supporters of both the movement and the party.
PAD tries a political party
nganadeeleg :
As for the ‘reds’, there is also the possibility that the longer the Abhisit government stays in place, the longer the reds will be able to hold together (we have seen with the PAD how hatred of a common enemy is a strong unifying force)
Well, if you continue to “not winning” for a long time (and one or two years from now would be ‘longer’ for the Red Shirts, as they already lost big since Sep 2006), the difficulty of hoding on would be greater despite the hatred for the Abhisit government.
If we look at the lesson of the PAD, toward the end of August last year prior to the seizing of Gov House, their morale was clearly waning. There’s even complain among PAD supporters that “Why Someone who we are fighting for has not come out to help us yet?” (yes, they menat HMK!). The complain was widesrpead enough among them, some wrote on Manager webboard! In fact one could say that the tactic of seizing the Gov House was in large part a response to this waing morale. But just two weeks later, the Court dismissed Samak (together with the military refusal to remove them as ordered by Samak), and the PAD sprang back to life again.
As you know, I have declared my political support of the Red Shirt movement. I still have great sympathy for them, but I view their prospect less rosy than most of them do. For one thing, many of them believe that Abhisit gov is failing and being torn by in-fighting (Dems v Newin party) and will be forced to call general elections soon. I on the other hand think Abhisit will try to stay on a few years and has good chance of doing so, despite internal fighting among his coalition and the economic difficulty. I have in mind Prem gov in the 1980s which also faced similar situation (in fact, worse as the military was not always on their side), but manage to stay on for quite a few years. Abhisit needs not hope to stay as long as Prem, but I do think he can reasonably expect to hold on till the next scheduled general elections in over two years time. Should that happen, the Red Shirts as a political movement will be greatly tested.
The sufficiency panacea
One of the really big problems for Thailand: no genuine respect for common people among groups in power. Common people are simply to be manipulated-a kind of pawn-to serve the cause of some influential group. At a gathering, they usually sit back and acquiesced to self-serving oratory pounded out by those messiahs who, upon enough repetitions of their prophecies, mistake their own fallacies for truths.
PAD celebrates decision to found political party
“NoName”:
Yes, i am aware of the fact that the stadium seats only 20 000 people.
But there were also many people outside the stadium in the surroundings. Another few thousand people were also inside the arena during the march of the provincial chapters of the PAD in the later afternoon.
Of course the crowd thinned rapidly when the heavy downpours began.
What also should not be forgotten is that possibly millions all over the country watched the event on ASTV.
PAD tries a political party
As has been pointe dout it is very easy to get a group of diverse minded people to unite against something whether it be Thaksin or Abhisit or Prem. However, when then trying to find common values to unite around the diversity of the group becomes a problem resulting either in disintegration or a vague and fuzzy common goal meaning all things to all men and which will probably only delay the inevitable.
The PAD face the problem that many of their supporters and especailly sympathisers just wanted Abhisit as PM. They now have that. The PAD would seem to need the Democrats to be very badly tarnished or to fall apart for them to succeed. As the Democrats have always managed to retain a fairly large loyal base that seem sunlikely and the PAD will probably only manage to convince a few lesser Dems to swop party and risk running against a party that seems to get its votes on party loyalty rather than individual following. The other route to success would be fo rthe PAD to hire in a few influential heavyweights who can deliver a variety of constituencies. Even though none of us are sure of the meaning of new politics, we can probably assume the traditonal hiring of sitting MPs and influential people is not in line with the new ethos, so it looks like it will be difficult for the PAD party.
As an aside. It is funny how whenever Thaksin has an impending court decision the red/PTP action or manouvers seem to heat up. Well Sondhi et al are seeing the investigations into PAD at GH and airport get slightly more serious, the PAD has seemingly been abandonded by a few “backers” and of course there was the curious affair of the assassination attempt. Setting up a politcal party increases leverage somewhat especially when the EC could be forced to rule on eligibility to be leader, and the party itself would seem to be a threat to the current status quo at the next election through vote splitting.
PAD celebrates decision to found political party
Dear Nick,
According to the infomation checked on this consultant company’s page…
http://www.cot.co.th/detail.php?ProjectID=98
30,000 people packed in Thammasat Rangsit main stadium seems not possible since its capacity is only for 20,000 seats! Thank you again for your great report 🙂