One other matter: how did Marcos do on social media? – even though it looks, right now, that he will narrowly lose, the fact that he did so well in Manila (where social media is at its most active) needs to be explained
Handley explicitly states that “most signs indicate that the crown will pass” exactly where it will pass.
All Handley does is report on the concerns and problems involved in what is essentially, in his view, a fait accompli.
Nothing “outdated” at all. Whether in or outside Thailand.
I think that anyone interested in informing anyone at all would want to make that difference between the books being discussed here crystal clear. One book is balanced and trustworthy; the other is more than a little off-base in more ways than one.
á¤Free trade is like the free market based on jungle law, properly rigged by the big beasts that roam in the global jungle night and day. To mix metaphors the minnows like us will become easy prey to Jaws & Co in a ‘liberalised marketplace’. Globalisation and its discontents, eh?
Michael – I think you are being suspiciously disingenuous. But because everything I post on New Mandala is posted OUTSIDE Thailand, and done for no other purpose or intent, than to better inform and debate Australians, etc., I will attempt to answer your question with a simple reply : I think the succession issues raised in BOTH Handley’s and MacGregor’s book have now been resolved. It is true Handley made NO prediction about how such issues would be resolved.
So in what way is the book “outdated”? I thought I knew exactly what you meant about Marshall’s, but cannot for the life of me see anything outdated about Handley on succession or anything else.
Michael – I’ve read Handley, cover to cover, more times than I can remember. It’s an excellent reference work. I have two copies in my house. One a samizdat copy, bought in the Lao PDR, a typical copy of those regularly smuggled into your Thailand. The other I bought in Singapore.
In the spirit of that versification I offer the following addendum:
The problem with democracy
As anyone with eyes can see
Is an inherent tendency
To grease the squeaky wheel
To make what people feel
Into idols of the marketplace
As old man Bacon said.
So heroes rise up frequently
Whose ethics (to speak decently)
Are just about as sound
And as shallow not profound
As TheDonald or Duterte come to show.
Which is why we need our liberalism
Not some hollowed-out idealism
Just a smack of hardball realism
To put these jokers in their place
And not worry about whose face
Gets lost or found.
“Former Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra’s administration gave probably the most obvious example of this when their ill-advised attempt to introduce a bill at 3am giving a sweeping amnesty to the country’s greatest political troublemakers, including her fugitive brother, …”
The bill was not “introduced” at 3 a.m. It had already been through 2 readings and was brought up for final vote at 3 a.m. (during a very late session).
Well, Chris Beale, since Handley makes no predictions, does not put a “succession struggle” at the center of anything at all and basically agrees with what you have said above, one can only conclude you haven’t actually read the book.
And swampthing, it has nothing to do with whose book is “much older”.
Handley’s book is balanced and incisive and the way things have played out since its publication simply confirm his insights of the time.
Marshall’s book, by placing the “succession struggle”, which appears not to exist in anything like the form he imagines, at the heart of the “Thai crisis” has been made obsolete by facts on the ground.
Great article! As someone who followed all five candidates on social media I definitely agree with your observations and it’s great to see someone articulate it so well
What was unusual about the November elections was that it wasn’t contested on a party manifesto or a policy platform but on a slogan for change. The personality cult and the desire for change did the rest.
As promised once in power policies come thick and fast. You could of course foretell from ASSK’s background of a Western educated liberal dove what her agenda is going to be. There’s likely no thinking outside that box. We’ll join the New World Order, its flagship WTO and also APEC.
Having said that I broadly agree with Nich that to all intents and purposes Burma is drawing a line under the ancien regime although whether the military elite will allow it to what extent remains to be seen. Good luck to the Lady with her hands on the tiller and the public fully behind her. There’ll be some rough seas ahead.
This data only shows that the world has progressed substantially since 1500.
Some believe that this progress will continue, and some do not.
‘Turning and turning in the widening gyre
The falcon cannot hear the falconer;
Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;
Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world,
The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere
The ceremony of innocence is drowned;
The best lack all conviction, while the worst
Are full of passionate intensity.’
(W.B. Yeats)
This is all great rhetoric, but I don’t think it matches much of the reality in Myanmar, or many other places. If you haven’t seen it I’d encourage you, and others, to check out Max Roser’s impressive initiative, “Our World in Data”. Afraid he is one of those dreaded academics.
Because our hopes and efforts for building a better future are inextricably linked to our perception of the past it is important to understand and communicate this historical development. Studying our world in data and understanding how we overcame challenges that seemed insurmountable at the time should give us confidence to tackle the problems we are currently facing. It is easy to be cynical about the world and to maintain that nothing is ever getting better. But fortunately the empirical evidence contradicts this view. I believe it is partly due to a lack of relevant and understandable information that a negative view on how the world is changing is so very common. It is not possible to understand how the world is changing by following the daily news – disasters are happening in an instant, but progress is a slow process that does not make the headlines.
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How to introduce Duterte in Southeast Asia
Another awesome piece by Mong 🙂 agreed that the Trump analogy alone is a bit shallow and there is much more depth to who Duterte is
How Duterte won the election on Facebook
One other matter: how did Marcos do on social media? – even though it looks, right now, that he will narrowly lose, the fact that he did so well in Manila (where social media is at its most active) needs to be explained
The king still never smiles
OK – good point re. Handley, Michael. Thanks for highlighting that for me.
The king still never smiles
Nothing disingenuous here, Chris.
Handley explicitly states that “most signs indicate that the crown will pass” exactly where it will pass.
All Handley does is report on the concerns and problems involved in what is essentially, in his view, a fait accompli.
Nothing “outdated” at all. Whether in or outside Thailand.
I think that anyone interested in informing anyone at all would want to make that difference between the books being discussed here crystal clear. One book is balanced and trustworthy; the other is more than a little off-base in more ways than one.
Policy conundrums under the NLD
á¤Free trade is like the free market based on jungle law, properly rigged by the big beasts that roam in the global jungle night and day. To mix metaphors the minnows like us will become easy prey to Jaws & Co in a ‘liberalised marketplace’. Globalisation and its discontents, eh?
The king still never smiles
Michael – I think you are being suspiciously disingenuous. But because everything I post on New Mandala is posted OUTSIDE Thailand, and done for no other purpose or intent, than to better inform and debate Australians, etc., I will attempt to answer your question with a simple reply : I think the succession issues raised in BOTH Handley’s and MacGregor’s book have now been resolved. It is true Handley made NO prediction about how such issues would be resolved.
The king still never smiles
So in what way is the book “outdated”? I thought I knew exactly what you meant about Marshall’s, but cannot for the life of me see anything outdated about Handley on succession or anything else.
The king still never smiles
Michael – I’ve read Handley, cover to cover, more times than I can remember. It’s an excellent reference work. I have two copies in my house. One a samizdat copy, bought in the Lao PDR, a typical copy of those regularly smuggled into your Thailand. The other I bought in Singapore.
Days of Duterte begin
In the spirit of that versification I offer the following addendum:
The problem with democracy
As anyone with eyes can see
Is an inherent tendency
To grease the squeaky wheel
To make what people feel
Into idols of the marketplace
As old man Bacon said.
So heroes rise up frequently
Whose ethics (to speak decently)
Are just about as sound
And as shallow not profound
As TheDonald or Duterte come to show.
Which is why we need our liberalism
Not some hollowed-out idealism
Just a smack of hardball realism
To put these jokers in their place
And not worry about whose face
Gets lost or found.
The king still never smiles
Well you are right chris.
Thai junta to get its report card
“Former Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra’s administration gave probably the most obvious example of this when their ill-advised attempt to introduce a bill at 3am giving a sweeping amnesty to the country’s greatest political troublemakers, including her fugitive brother, …”
The bill was not “introduced” at 3 a.m. It had already been through 2 readings and was brought up for final vote at 3 a.m. (during a very late session).
The king still never smiles
Well, Chris Beale, since Handley makes no predictions, does not put a “succession struggle” at the center of anything at all and basically agrees with what you have said above, one can only conclude you haven’t actually read the book.
And swampthing, it has nothing to do with whose book is “much older”.
Handley’s book is balanced and incisive and the way things have played out since its publication simply confirm his insights of the time.
Marshall’s book, by placing the “succession struggle”, which appears not to exist in anything like the form he imagines, at the heart of the “Thai crisis” has been made obsolete by facts on the ground.
So no “double standards”.
Thai junta to get its report card
perhaps, a guest piece on your democratic, military coup leaders?
How Duterte won the election on Facebook
Great article! As someone who followed all five candidates on social media I definitely agree with your observations and it’s great to see someone articulate it so well
Massacre, memory and the wounds of 1965
[…] : Hélène PoitevinSource (Ariel Heryanto* / New Mandala) Massacre, memory and the wounds of 1965Photo : Julius Livre […]
Policy conundrums under the NLD
What was unusual about the November elections was that it wasn’t contested on a party manifesto or a policy platform but on a slogan for change. The personality cult and the desire for change did the rest.
As promised once in power policies come thick and fast. You could of course foretell from ASSK’s background of a Western educated liberal dove what her agenda is going to be. There’s likely no thinking outside that box. We’ll join the New World Order, its flagship WTO and also APEC.
Having said that I broadly agree with Nich that to all intents and purposes Burma is drawing a line under the ancien regime although whether the military elite will allow it to what extent remains to be seen. Good luck to the Lady with her hands on the tiller and the public fully behind her. There’ll be some rough seas ahead.
Policy conundrums under the NLD
This data only shows that the world has progressed substantially since 1500.
Some believe that this progress will continue, and some do not.
‘Turning and turning in the widening gyre
The falcon cannot hear the falconer;
Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;
Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world,
The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere
The ceremony of innocence is drowned;
The best lack all conviction, while the worst
Are full of passionate intensity.’
(W.B. Yeats)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Second_Coming_%28poem%29
http://www.truthdig.com/report/item/apocalyptic_capitalism_20151206
Massacre, memory and the wounds of 1965
Now in French:
http://www.alterasia.org/201605124719/indonesie-ouverture-dun-dialogue-historique-massacres-de-1965/
The king still never smiles
No double standard you excellently named Swampthing. I think BOTH MacGregor Marshall AND Handley are out-dated re. the succession.
Policy conundrums under the NLD
Thanks Ohn,
This is all great rhetoric, but I don’t think it matches much of the reality in Myanmar, or many other places. If you haven’t seen it I’d encourage you, and others, to check out Max Roser’s impressive initiative, “Our World in Data”. Afraid he is one of those dreaded academics.
Anyway, as he says:
Of course, there are all sorts of interpretations of progress, and these numbers aren’t everyone’s cup of tea, but many of them are very compelling. See, for some quick examples:
https://ourworldindata.org/gdp-growth-over-the-very-long-run/
https://ourworldindata.org/global-economic-inequality
https://ourworldindata.org/international-trade/
Two more specific responses related to Myanmar are:
http://asiapacific.anu.edu.au/newmandala/2016/03/09/misplaced-affection-for-myanmars-old-days/
http://asiapacific.anu.edu.au/newmandala/2015/11/18/getting-to-grips-with-the-future/
Best wishes to all,
Nich