Comments

  1. David Camroux says:

    A further element that could be added to confirm the general thrust of this nuanced analysis is the poor relations that exist between the police and the army. This goes beyond the kind of turf wars that occur between state and federal authorities in countries with federal systems, or that between semi-military police forces, like the Gendarmerie in France or the Carabinieri in Italy, and national police forces. In Thailand these tensions have a distinct political dimension.

    Thaksin Shinawatre, it should be remembered, rose up in the ranks of the police not the Thai Army. During his period in office he favored the police over the Army in dealing (poorly) with the insurgency in the Deep South. In late 2013 the police hierarchy seemed to have sided with the government against a resurgent yellow shirt movement opposed to Yingluck Shinawatra.

    Lingering tensions and distrust between the military (now fully in power) and the police could be an exacerbating factor in somewhat farcical situation Lee Jones describes.

  2. Sam Deedes says:

    The problem with the farcical nature of the Thai official response is that, in the words of Neil Kinnock, they are “playing politics with peoples’ lives”.

    The latest bizarre twist saw the Thai police swooping on Palestinian refugee families who have fled here from Syria and are desperately waiting for resettlement to a third country.

    Whole families were taken away until negotiations reduced the detainees to seven Palestinian men. The women and children, although released, now face pressure from their landlords who would rather they moved elsewhere. The Thai Muslim community is rallying round them as best they can.

    Palestine Solidarity Campaign Thailand has stated “We condemn these arrests of some of the last people who would have any reason to carry out or be connected with such an atrocity. But because they look and sound different – and possibly because of their religion – not to mention the fact that the desperate Thai police act desperately in an attempt to show some kind of results, we see innocent refugees being made scapegoats.”

    For those of you living in Bangkok, the FCCT is organising a meeting on Monday evening, “The Bangkok Bombing: What Do We Really Know?”

  3. Sapta Haryana says:

    i like to read this article…im so sad bout how the eviction make residents hurt (their loose lovely house, lovely neighbourhood )but in the other side i want to give some mirror for them… , they want to stay continuesly , they know the risk is bigger than their hope and their dream to built a properly environment for their kids later.. , they should realize even The governor Ahok seem arrogan but i know he made a difficult decision…and thats the best for all…for Jakarta and for the place that we called earth..,rivers must be clean from the resident …, avoid flood and safe people, no choice…

  4. Roy Anderson says:

    Prayuth should have instructed the police force to stop watching and acting like the “Keystone cops”.
    A total farce and once again an international disgrace on Thailand’s illegal military rulers.
    In time this episode will not appear in the history books as it demonstrates the stupidity of the nation. Red Drum, Tak Bai and the slaughter of the innocent in Bankkok 2010 immediately come to mind.

  5. Peter Cohen says:

    You mean like yourself, Bernie, peddling expertise at denouncing “self-styled experts”. Do you have proof that your cynicism is more forensically valid than the suppositions of others, however they are made ?

  6. SWH says:

    With upcoming elections a few months away, it’s great to check the “likes” again for major figures. Gen. Min Aung Hlaing now has 243,000 likes, 25% increase. But hey, look at Shwe Mann, who now has 155,000 likes, over 100% increase from 70,000 he had two months ago. And he is gaining more at an incredible speed. The only time I see “sponsored” from the political posts is beside U Shwe Mann’s. From the frequency of “sponsored” statuses I see, I guess U Shwe Man is spending hundreds of dollar a day to promote his statuses, some as old as a year ago, which remind the people about what he has done, especially salary increases, supporting constitution changes, and all.

  7. Bryan Lindsay says:

    For R N England to state, as if it were an undisputed fact, that constitutional monarchy is a fraud, instead of merely being his own opinion, displays arrogance and ignorance in equal measure. His claim might hold water if applied only to those monarchies which do not welcome public scrutiny, but to use the same yardstick for the monarchies of northern Europe is just plain silly.

    For fraud to succeed, people need to be kept in the dark as to what is going on. In Britain, and those Commonwealth countries which retain the monarchy, people have enough information for them to make up their minds on the matter.

    Around 70% of us in Britain support the monarchy not because we are crawlers, or gullible, or oppressed, but because, for the time being at least, and all things considered, we have come to the conclusion that our constitutional monarchy suits us well, and is a better system of government than any of the alternatives. Of the 30% who don’t want to retain the monarchy, no doubt some see it as a fraud, others will have other reasons for their point of view. That’s fine. That such opinions can be openly expressed is probably one of the reasons why our monarchy has survived, and retained its popularity.

    England’s claim that any monarchy is the antithesis of democracy is also, in my opinion, wrong. If, in a free, open and democratic country, a majority of the population wish to retain a monarchical system, then that system of government is democratic.

  8. […] Thai junta turning tragedy to farce Sums up my thoughts on announcements without facts.. Also the BBC finding evidence which the police then refused to accept it when they tried to hand it in.. Then human remains falling out of a nearby tree.. Kinda expected I guess.. Still a shame tho. […]

  9. […] On 21 August I was asked to write a piece for New Mandala on the Thai regime’s incompetent handling of the investigation. […]

  10. Robert says:

    Great analysis. Thailand is being run by complete incompetents……This government was always one step away from disaster…now its on its doorstep.
    One only has to look at the sham masquerading as a trial in Koh Samui to understand the depth of the incompetence and moral turpitude of the Thai police.

  11. pearshaped says:

    For the doubters. Compare the name of the boat [HARUM]in the previously linked Indonesian story with the OSB turnback boat, HARUM, on the hard in Darwin in this image,

    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/abbott-government-buys-cheaper-vietnamese-fishing-boats-to-tow-back-asylum-seekers-20150305-13wa8x.html

  12. Moe Aung says:

    Amen to that, Nich. You wish, I’m bound to say too, sadly in agreement with Marayu. Since when is the greater good of the country a priority to these generals the latest recruits to global rentier-capitalism? They’d pay lip service as usual and go about their business of making themselves rich.

    If they’d actually shown a fraction of Lee Kwan Yew’s vision and sharing of the national pie with his people they wouldn’t have had to talk about catching up with Singapore.

    Burmese by and large do want to contribute, and don’t forget American Chinese even spying for the motherland is well documented.

    Sending people abroad for further studies has been a low priority under their watch. Even a high school education seems unwelcome as it might lead to challenging their misrule.

    But rejoice that they are now down a jolly slippery slope compelled to change tack and get the democracy show on the road for their own selfish reasons and having to do things they would never have done or even thought of. Sanctions, the West, there is some good in them, both some of the unintended consequences and planned expectations.

  13. SWH says:

    We all differ. To me, far from seeing his “demise”, U Shwe Mann is now in a far stronger position than any time in the past. He now has one critical factor he lacked previously: public support. DASSK can now publicly side with him. Anyone who wishes to become President in 2015 cannot rely only on military and USDP alone as 2012 by-election results had shown. U Shwe Mann knows it very well. He’s a skillful player.

    Let’s not forget that military has a monopoly on hard power. But even considering this into account, U Shwe Mann has now obtained a status which neither U Thein Sein (himself or his supporters) nor Gen. Min Aung Hlaing can do anything without hurting themselves, or worse, destroying everything they have built in the past years. Even impeaching with recently suspended “rights to recall” bill won’t stop him from being a Presidential nominee, if he has an agreement with the NLD. Removing Shwe Mann would inevitably requires putting him under house-arrest. This, arresting one of the most prominent figures in government for power struggle, is tantamount to saying all reforms are facades, and certainly not an image the government wants to present to the international community. Furthermore, more attacks on him would create a martyr out of him and make him a hero in people’s eyes.

    Of course, everything I said hinges on two facts that he has an agreement with DASSK, and that NLD can secure around two-third of elected seats in the Hluttaws. Agreement between them is always implied in several cases. DASSK, an uncompromising fighter to change the constitution, puzzlingly agreed with Shwe Mann that amendments should be postponed to next government. And when she said the NLD Presidential nominee must be from NLD, she said interestingly with an exception, “even if that person is not from NLD right now, he should join the party in the future”. All this, along with many one-on-one meetings during critical times, her cancellation of trips while the crisis unfolded, and the declarations by many from NLD Executive Committee that they don’t want to become President, directly suggest that NLD nominee is U Shwe Mann.

    An added factor to this is that USDP is now divided, not under firm command of U Thein Sein. Time is too late to replace Shwe Man’s loyalists with U Thein Sein supporters. A split in USDP would favor U Shwe Mann. Moreover, a recent study by the University of Hong Kong shows that NLD is still leading far ahead of other parties. Even if NLD doesn’t win a majority, Shwe Mann supporters inside USDP, who suspended the “rights to recall” bill, would make up for the missing votes.

    So overall, I won’t be surprised if the “ousted” U Shwe Mann becomes President in 2016.

  14. Bernie says:

    I totally agree with Andrew MacGregor Marshall that the self-styled experts should keep quiet as they have little idea about what they are talking about.
    M79 grenades do not get launched out of a rifle, they either get launched from a stand alone M79 grenade launcher or from an M203 launcher under the M16. They must travel 15 metres to “arm” themselves.
    Military grade TNT is rarely used other than to blow-up ordinance that has not detonated on impact. I.E. artillery shalls, mortar shells, UXB’s (unexploded bombs).
    The fact that the Thai military nor Thai police have released forensic analysis about what was used, other than BBC reporter Hend digging ball bearings out of walls and trying to give them to the Thai army, who said he had come to the wrong place, is the only real evidence seen so far.
    As far as the group or person concerned; it could have been anyone and until such time as the Thais share their forensic knowledge with the public, the finger cannot be pointed in any one direction.
    The fact that no group has claimed responsibility also leaves everything wide open to the “experts” speculation. I’ve tried to point this out before, but it fails to get printed.
    I would be exploring who said that 1 motorcycle and two taxis had exploded. I would also explore who said the Thai police had disarmed two bombs wrapped around the skytrain columns, but I think they also came from the experts as well. Just figments of meaningless chatter. The Australian army has an expression for it “coming from the third dunny on the right”.
    I do wish the “experts” would stop doing it, they demean themselves.

  15. just a reader says:

    Almost every analyst of the current political situation ignores the fact that King can appoint a heir and that this person might be not one of his children but another Thai man. In addition, realize that the King many times urged the Thais not to fight eachother and that his oldest grandson is not an infant but an adult man.

  16. Sam Deedes says:

    OK, I get that. I was just being super-careful trying to cover all eventualities.

  17. Andrew MacGregor Marshall says:

    It’s becoming depressing to watch the ongoing parade of self-styled “experts” queuing up to share platitudes about this bombing even when they have nothing new to say. Sometimes, it’s better to keep quiet, rather than add to meaningless chatter.

  18. R. N. England says:

    The usual lazy journalists around the world repeat, as if it were possible, the absurd announcement by spokesmen of the dictatorship that the bombers were “unlikely to be terrorists”. If they weren’t terrorists, what the hell were they?
    Blind Freddy could work out that the most likely culprits would be Islamic extremists avenging the Thai dictatorship’s forced return of 100 Moslem Uighurs to China. The reason that was not considered, is that it acutely embarrasses the dictatorship’s decision-makers. What lying, self-serving crawler in his right mind would do that?

  19. pearshaped says:

    Four if you count the doppelgangers and let’s not start on the sockpuppets.

    But sticking with the Rohingya theme, as there was at least one aboard, here’s the latest turnback to Timor earlier this month –

    http://kupang.tribunnews.com/2015/08/03/25-imigran-gelap-ditangkap-di-kupang-barat

    And the story not in the media –

    The boat departed ex Sinjai S.Sulawesi, organised by Ambo and Hassan, veteran smugglers who used to work for the boss of the Makassar syndicate. Intercepted near Ashmore the skipper sabotaged the engine and was delighted when given a fibrelass boat for the return cruise. So delighted in fact he was bopping along to an Inul tune in the wheelhouse when intercepted by ALRI and taken to Tablolong, where happy emoticons turned to sad as his new boat was confiscated by you known who. Those closer to the action than I remarked that his once joyful Goyang Patah Pinggul to Inul will probably now be plain Patah Tulang courtesy of POLRI Kupang.

  20. David Camroux says:

    Without going into speculation on the culprits – and I for once agree with Peter Cohen, in this case, that Malay Muslim militants from the Deep South should not be excluded – I think ‘Dr Watson’ has a point here. Having just been in Bangkok and Pattani I was struck by the advertising blitz for the ‘Bike for Mum’ event which in the end attracted nearly 300,000 enrolled participants. It has entered the Guinness Book of Records.

    ‘Bike for Mom’ can be seen as having a twofold objective. On the one hand part of the civilianized military’s junta’s campaign to prepare the succession to the present king by enhancing the image of the Crown Prince (quite a challenge). He not only led the event, but his daughter also participated. Moreover, now with a new ‘socially acceptable’ wife (his fourth) and two new legitimate potential princes to boot he can at last aspire to imitating his father’s image of paternal benevolence.

    On the other hand ‘Bike for Mom’ in the antithesis of Copenhagen in terms of bike friendliness, seems designed as part of the ‘thainess’ and ‘happiness’ trope of the present civilianized government, legitimizing its holding onto power as long as possible till a semi-democratic regime is, once again, embedded.

    It is pure conjecture, but the tight security put in place for “Bike for Mom” event in Bangkok perhaps inhibited the perpetrators of the bombing who waited till the day after. The site of the bombing – Ratchaprasong Junction – has much symbolic importance for many Thais that goes beyond the Erawan Shrine as such. However the idea that the bombing was an anti-royalist statement (sic) is too hard to contemplate.