Just a suggestion on one minor detail. Perhaps this article could be grouped under Indonesia Votes instead of Indonesia? The “Indonesia” link in the subsection selection part of the website is linked to Indonesia Votes, which makes sense as most of the hot stories now are about the Presidential Election. Since this article is currently under Indonesia, clicking “Indonesia” won’t redirect you to the section where you can find the article. This it might be a little confusing to new readers.
Thank you for a very careful writing on Papua. Currently, the votes for Jayapura have been finalized with Jokowi-JK won (96,780 votes) vs. Prabowo-Hatta (69,220 votes). The highlands’s problems that you have pointed out are correct but given Prabowo’s extremely troubling human rights violations (killings) in the Highlands, not even a single Papuan will believe that Prabowo won in the Highlands. Tabloidjubi.com has quite reliable reports from several places in the region.
This is a very lame and disappointing response from the supposedly world-class spin doctor. Let me refrain from complaining, as an Indonesian, to see a foreigner HELPED win a ticket. His response to discredit quick count is down right silly! You are not seriously saying that you don’t believe in statistics? No. Ya ampun!
Justifikasi dari Hongkong… memang faktanya Jokowi yang difitnah terus-terusan.
Antek PKI lah
Kristen lah
antek Cina lah
Boneka lah…
Dibilang sinting lah
Here’s the antidote: Many Thousands of people are spending their free time, all their free time digitizing the ballot papers that some very thoughtful people at at the Indonesian Election Commission came up with the plan to scan the ballot paper that day, put it in a database (that can be downloaded) and make an app out of it.
This is a salutary reminder of the fluid nature of Indonesian politics. Reminds me of De Gaulle’dictum, “France has no permanent friends only permanent interests”. One indication of this will be changes in the coalition in the Indonesian parliament. The Jakarta Globe on 13th July published an article “Ruminating on Indonesia’s Future amid uncertainty” by a Singapore based investment banker, Wellian Wiranto, with several scenarios (and pie charts to match). He concurs with information I received in Jakarta that Golkar will be the first to leave a sinking Prabowo ship. A long habit of being in power, and the need to defend vested interests will trump any solemn commitment on Monday 14th to a ‘Permanent Coalition’. As Greg Fealy suggests internal dynamics within the PPP could also see it ending up in a pro-Jokowi coalition. After all supporting Jokowi-JK was a default option, given the unwillingness of the Jokowi camp to horse trade for their support. With Jokowi as president the ‘seller’s market’ will become a ‘buyer’s market’ with their participation in a governing coalition being able to be bought at (hopefully) minimal cost
Thank you for responding. I do appreciate it, however…
What I find most disappointing is ANU’s failure, as a research institution, to review the piece and identify the author’s lack of understanding of the reality of Indonesian elections (and therefore the importance of quick counts) and baseless suggestions that the quick counts are produced by the “Jokowi-team”.
Allyn’s reaction to the earlier piece is not surprising (and understandable) given the speculations made about his involvement in the Prabowo campaign. Even so, giving Allyn space to explain the limited extent of his involvement in the campaign is one thing, but letting him have the space to confuse people with baseless accusations is quite another.
At least you could have taken the time to provide links at the bottom or top of Allyn’s piece to the earlier article by Aspinall & Meitzner and also links to articles which explain how quick counts work and why they are important (e.g. Diane Zhang’s article cited by Aaron Connelly above).
For you this may be nothing more than a “free exchange of views” online and more viewer hits for the New Mandala, but for about 240 million people this is about our lives. You do not have to face the consequences of this election, but we do.
I hope you can reconsider the review process for the New Mandala. You have an array of talented Indonesianists at ANU who are more than capable of doing basic fact checks. Please consult them. As it stands, the publication of this piece makes the New Mandala/ANU look as though it is not concerned about sound argument. This is what I find most disappointing as it goes against ANU’s scholarly reputation.
The question is how will the oligarchs react to a Jokowi – JK win? One indication of this will be changes in the coalition in the Indonesian parliament. The Jakarta Globe on 13th July published an article “Ruminating on Indonesia’s Future amid uncertainty” by a Singapore based investment banker, Wellian Wiranto, with several scenarios (and pie charts to match). He concurs with information I received in Jakarta that Golkar will be the first to leave a sinking Prabowo ship. A long habit of being in power, and the need to defend vested interests will trump any solemn commitment on Monday 14th to a ‘Permanent Coalition’.
Btw, I doubt Rob Allyn is reading these comments. So if you are interested in writing to him directly, here are the publicly available contact details of his firm: http://www.margatehousefilms.com/contactus
People like Vicharn, Chetana, and Vichit Srisaan have done a lot of harm to Thai education, and until they finally retire, they will continue doing so. Yet, they are not the only ones.
We allow people to avail themselves of the opportunity to respond to materials posted on New Mandala. Sometimes they do so by sending us a piece that we can post to the site. That’s what happened in this case, with Mr Allyn seeking to respond to an earlier post. Others, of course, can use the opportunity to present alternative perspectives as comments.
Hello Monique,
It is a pity that I do not understand what you mean by : “De meer Indonesi├л niet wijzigen, de meer Indonesi├л blijft hetzelfde..” May be it will be more elucidating if it is expressed in English….Or do you mean : “Hoe meer Indonesie zich niet veranderd hoe meer het het zelfde blijft.” Maar dat is dan toch zeker “Niets nieuws onder de zon, he.” Hartelijke groetjes, Lani.
Seandainya JOKOWI PRESIDENKU Mudah2an TIDAK MELAKUKAN TINDAKAN SEPERTI DIBAWAH INI:
1. pencabutan ketetapan MPRS No. 25 Tahun 1966 tentang Larangan Paham Komunisme. Hal itu diikuti pula oleh keberpihakan kepada paham yang menurut Syariat Islam sesat, seperti Ahmadiyah, Islam Liberal, dan Syiah.
2. Pembangunan STOP, krn Pemerintah SIBUK AMANKAN Item no 1. diatas.
3. Harta Kekayaan Indonesia bertambah BOCOR, krn Pemerintah butuh dana segar DAN CEPAT dlm mengamankan item no.1 diatas.
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Every vote must be counted, every voice must be heard
Just a suggestion on one minor detail. Perhaps this article could be grouped under Indonesia Votes instead of Indonesia? The “Indonesia” link in the subsection selection part of the website is linked to Indonesia Votes, which makes sense as most of the hot stories now are about the Presidential Election. Since this article is currently under Indonesia, clicking “Indonesia” won’t redirect you to the section where you can find the article. This it might be a little confusing to new readers.
Trouble in the East?
Thank you for a very careful writing on Papua. Currently, the votes for Jayapura have been finalized with Jokowi-JK won (96,780 votes) vs. Prabowo-Hatta (69,220 votes). The highlands’s problems that you have pointed out are correct but given Prabowo’s extremely troubling human rights violations (killings) in the Highlands, not even a single Papuan will believe that Prabowo won in the Highlands. Tabloidjubi.com has quite reliable reports from several places in the region.
Every vote must be counted, every voice must be heard
This is a very lame and disappointing response from the supposedly world-class spin doctor. Let me refrain from complaining, as an Indonesian, to see a foreigner HELPED win a ticket. His response to discredit quick count is down right silly! You are not seriously saying that you don’t believe in statistics? No. Ya ampun!
Every vote must be counted, every voice must be heard
Now Kompas is running a story about Rob’s voice; basically summarised Rob Allyn’s article here without mentioning the fierce criticism it receives from the readers of New Mandala. I hope this won’t be used by some people to falsify an air of Rob Allyn neutrality & professionalism, or even victimhood.
http://indonesiasatu.kompas.com/read/2014/07/16/13141361/konsultan.kampanye.prabowo.asal.as.buka.suara?utm_source=WP&utm_medium=box&utm_campaign=Khlwp
Taktik Permainan Prabowo
Justifikasi dari Hongkong… memang faktanya Jokowi yang difitnah terus-terusan.
Antek PKI lah
Kristen lah
antek Cina lah
Boneka lah…
Dibilang sinting lah
Prabowo’s game plan
Here’s the antidote: Many Thousands of people are spending their free time, all their free time digitizing the ballot papers that some very thoughtful people at at the Indonesian Election Commission came up with the plan to scan the ballot paper that day, put it in a database (that can be downloaded) and make an app out of it.
You can Crowd Count the Vote!
http://kawal-suara.appspot.com/
It’s an excellent unofficial experiment that will help if needed.
Uneasy alliance: Prabowo and the Islamic parties
This is a salutary reminder of the fluid nature of Indonesian politics. Reminds me of De Gaulle’dictum, “France has no permanent friends only permanent interests”. One indication of this will be changes in the coalition in the Indonesian parliament. The Jakarta Globe on 13th July published an article “Ruminating on Indonesia’s Future amid uncertainty” by a Singapore based investment banker, Wellian Wiranto, with several scenarios (and pie charts to match). He concurs with information I received in Jakarta that Golkar will be the first to leave a sinking Prabowo ship. A long habit of being in power, and the need to defend vested interests will trump any solemn commitment on Monday 14th to a ‘Permanent Coalition’. As Greg Fealy suggests internal dynamics within the PPP could also see it ending up in a pro-Jokowi coalition. After all supporting Jokowi-JK was a default option, given the unwillingness of the Jokowi camp to horse trade for their support. With Jokowi as president the ‘seller’s market’ will become a ‘buyer’s market’ with their participation in a governing coalition being able to be bought at (hopefully) minimal cost
Every vote must be counted, every voice must be heard
Hi Nich,
Thank you for responding. I do appreciate it, however…
What I find most disappointing is ANU’s failure, as a research institution, to review the piece and identify the author’s lack of understanding of the reality of Indonesian elections (and therefore the importance of quick counts) and baseless suggestions that the quick counts are produced by the “Jokowi-team”.
Allyn’s reaction to the earlier piece is not surprising (and understandable) given the speculations made about his involvement in the Prabowo campaign. Even so, giving Allyn space to explain the limited extent of his involvement in the campaign is one thing, but letting him have the space to confuse people with baseless accusations is quite another.
At least you could have taken the time to provide links at the bottom or top of Allyn’s piece to the earlier article by Aspinall & Meitzner and also links to articles which explain how quick counts work and why they are important (e.g. Diane Zhang’s article cited by Aaron Connelly above).
For you this may be nothing more than a “free exchange of views” online and more viewer hits for the New Mandala, but for about 240 million people this is about our lives. You do not have to face the consequences of this election, but we do.
I hope you can reconsider the review process for the New Mandala. You have an array of talented Indonesianists at ANU who are more than capable of doing basic fact checks. Please consult them. As it stands, the publication of this piece makes the New Mandala/ANU look as though it is not concerned about sound argument. This is what I find most disappointing as it goes against ANU’s scholarly reputation.
Danau
President Jokowi vs Oligarchy
The question is how will the oligarchs react to a Jokowi – JK win? One indication of this will be changes in the coalition in the Indonesian parliament. The Jakarta Globe on 13th July published an article “Ruminating on Indonesia’s Future amid uncertainty” by a Singapore based investment banker, Wellian Wiranto, with several scenarios (and pie charts to match). He concurs with information I received in Jakarta that Golkar will be the first to leave a sinking Prabowo ship. A long habit of being in power, and the need to defend vested interests will trump any solemn commitment on Monday 14th to a ‘Permanent Coalition’.
Taktik Permainan Prabowo
Jokowi kampanye pake sumbangan konstituennya, jadi yang lo maksud itu siapa?
Prabowo’s game plan
Has anyone of you seen this video ?
http://youtu.be/gYaNrE6doYc
It is unbelievable but it is true and it looks as if it is a standard operting procedure of a kind……
Salam 2 Jari
Every vote must be counted, every voice must be heard
Btw, I doubt Rob Allyn is reading these comments. So if you are interested in writing to him directly, here are the publicly available contact details of his firm:
http://www.margatehousefilms.com/contactus
Margate House Films
T. +1 323 454 7667
[email protected]
Confused Thai Educators
People like Vicharn, Chetana, and Vichit Srisaan have done a lot of harm to Thai education, and until they finally retire, they will continue doing so. Yet, they are not the only ones.
Every vote must be counted, every voice must be heard
Thanks Danau,
We allow people to avail themselves of the opportunity to respond to materials posted on New Mandala. Sometimes they do so by sending us a piece that we can post to the site. That’s what happened in this case, with Mr Allyn seeking to respond to an earlier post. Others, of course, can use the opportunity to present alternative perspectives as comments.
Long may such free exchange of views continue.
Best wishes to all,
Nich
Every vote must be counted, every voice must be heard
….deciding the election based on so-called “quick counts” (produced by private pollsters on Jokowi’s campaign team)….
Excuse me, Kompas and RRI are respectable independent firm. Both are also showing Jokowi’s win.
Rob, this goes to show that your claim is full of spin hence negates all credibility in this article….
Taktik Permainan Prabowo
Kalo KPU bisa dipantau mas.. makanya banyakin saksi biar ga ada kecurangan.. kalo QC? terserah yg punya lembaga.. gimana watchmen?
Voting Number 1
Hello Monique,
It is a pity that I do not understand what you mean by : “De meer Indonesi├л niet wijzigen, de meer Indonesi├л blijft hetzelfde..” May be it will be more elucidating if it is expressed in English….Or do you mean : “Hoe meer Indonesie zich niet veranderd hoe meer het het zelfde blijft.” Maar dat is dan toch zeker “Niets nieuws onder de zon, he.” Hartelijke groetjes, Lani.
Taktik Permainan Prabowo
Seandainya JOKOWI PRESIDENKU Mudah2an TIDAK MELAKUKAN TINDAKAN SEPERTI DIBAWAH INI:
1. pencabutan ketetapan MPRS No. 25 Tahun 1966 tentang Larangan Paham Komunisme. Hal itu diikuti pula oleh keberpihakan kepada paham yang menurut Syariat Islam sesat, seperti Ahmadiyah, Islam Liberal, dan Syiah.
2. Pembangunan STOP, krn Pemerintah SIBUK AMANKAN Item no 1. diatas.
3. Harta Kekayaan Indonesia bertambah BOCOR, krn Pemerintah butuh dana segar DAN CEPAT dlm mengamankan item no.1 diatas.
Every vote must be counted, every voice must be heard
This article is rubbish coming from the consultant of Prabowo Subianto. How much did Prabowo Subianto’s brother Hashim promises to pay you Rob ?
this guy is a businessman not a politician. His loyalty goes to the highest bidder.
Taktik Permainan Prabowo
Duh . Mikir dikit dong situ punya otak. Punya otak kok gak dipake. Kebiasaan orang indo yee