Are you sure that jokowi was your client in 2012 governor election? Or it was the same person who are now running for presidential election, prabowo, who gave his support to jokowi at that time as governor candidate in 2012 jakarta governor election
And now, even in this article, you tried to manipulate another thing! You took Jokowi’s name in your credit title at your end.
So, you want people see that is not only Prabowo who plays the dirty games (with you), but Jokowi too. In fact, all Indonesians still clearly remember that the the TV Ads for Jokowi-Ahok 2012, was meant to be Prabowo & Gerindra’s Ads. Jokowi-Ahok were only popped up at a glance, while Prabowo-Gerindra were there all the times!
Kalau kamu nggak percaya QC, mungkin lain kali kalo dokter minta sampel darah, kamu harus ngasih semua darahmu soalnya kan sampel darahmu tidak mewakili semua darahmu.
One thing that he forgot is that how much is America’s democracy (a so-called true democracy) is also measured by pollsters. If you take a look on US election, every district seat, every senate race, are measured by pollsters and statisticians. US media has their coverage and call the winners even before any precinct reported. Allyn also forgot how that quick count in Indonesia, with correct metodology, has produced an undeniably accurate picture of the results for the last 6 national elections and dozens of local elections.
Bear in mind that quick count will NEVER be regarded as OFFICIAL election result. We have KPU as the official commision who will announce the real count. But then again quick count will always give you accurate picture on what’s going on if it conducted with a correct, transparent methodology
“The pollsters producing those quick counts (based on less than ┬╜%), as well as the head of Indonesia’s polling association, are all members of Jokowi’s campaign.”
So you are saying that RRI(Indonesia’s government radio) is a member of jokowi’s team. you know its a ridiculous allegation right?
Thanks for this very insightful article. It does, as the previous comment says, confirm the conspiracy theories.
As an aside, the U.S. is not the world’s first democracy. The term is Greek, for a start…
Why is a reputable research institution like the ANU publishing this piece? It is an advertising piece and a PR manoeuver for Margate House/Rob Allyn. Where is the scholarly critique to go with this piece?
As for Rob Allyn, he can say all he wants about “working for democracy” but it is rhetorical (in the same way that much of what Prabowo says is empty rhetoric). If Allyn really was a champion for democracy the way he makes himself out to be in this piece, he would have done some background check about Prabowo before offering him Margate House’s services for his presidential campaign.
But their actions suggest that Margate House/Rob Allyn is not about democracy – instead, they are about profit. Either that, or they are very naive about the precariousness of Indonesia’s young democracy.
Rob Allyn is naive to suggest that we should just sit back and wait for the ‘real’ count. If you look at Jokowi’s Facebook page, it is filled with calls for volunteers to be vigilant in ensuring that the voting and vote counting processes are not manipulated. Meanwhile, Prabowo’s Facebook shows that they are not the least bit concerned about possible manipulation of the votes. Why the contrast? It is probably because the former is more afraid that the votes will be manipulated by his opponent than the latter.
Indonesia is not (yet) a place where media companies can offer services to any candidate, pat themselves on their back for serving democracy, and be assured that the vote counting will be done professionally and objectively. Rob Allyn is naive (or pretending to be na├пve) in equating the role that his services played for American campaigns to that of Prabowo’s presidential bid.
Allyn can pretend that his conscience is clean and hop on a plane back to the US, but it is not he who has to face the consequences of the Indonesian election. It is Indonesians. We are the ones with loved ones in Indonesia. We are the ones who were directly affected by the events of 1965 and 1998 and everything in between. These events are still fresh in our memory. Many of us fled the country in 1998 (temporarily) to save our lives.
It may be business as usual for Allyn, but not so for Indonesians because our future is at stake.
In contrast to Allyn, the editors of The Jakarta Post risked everything in openly declaring support for Jokowi (http://bit.ly/1rrx2bv). They did so knowing that if Prabowo was to become president, he may give them a hard time (during the era of Prabowo’s father-in-law, Suharto, this could mean jail time and possibly death). On the surface this may seem biased, but given the Indonesian context they were essentially putting their lives on the line for the sake of protecting the democracy that Indonesia had fought for with their lives. Surely, the famous quote was ringing in their ears in the days leading up to their editorial, “All that is necessary for the triumph of evil is that good men do nothing.”
In light of the courage shown by The Jakarta Post editors, Rob Allyn’s claim of “working for democracy” rings empty.
Rob, you argued that quick count samples from 2000 polling stations does not represent the ground reality, as they only accounts a small number of the population. You also claimed that your campaign ads are based on good research.
My question is, how many samples did you use for your research? Did you sampled the entire population?
Komen yg adem2 aja mas bro jangan buat suana makin panas,toh siapapun yg terpilih bakal memimpin kita semua,baik satu amupun dua jari,jangan saling menghujat dan saling memprofokasi kita semua saudara
Honesty is the least I hope I will get when I first saw this article. Yes, that is. I get what I hope for: dishonesty!
Let me take a small piece of this article: “… Our clean, issue-focused TV ads have been cited as a key factor helping both clients to close a gap of 30 points during the last two months of their campaigns … and perhaps to win the presidency.”
Really? Are you serious? It’s very easy to find ordinary people, when you ask why they voted for Prabowo, will say because his opponent is Christian, is Chinese, is PKI!
It is not your fine and clean TV ads, Mr. Allyn. It is because the SMEAR campaign that Mr. Prabowo’s campaign has been using that close the gap!
Please be honest! Smear campaign works! Everybody knows that.
You are NOT a hero for Indonesian democracy. You put our democracy in danger.
I’ve noticed that Allyn cites me in one of his dot points.
Regardless of what CSIS, SMRC, and Indikator did or did not do during the campaign, there has been absolutely no suggestion — by me or any “respected journalist or academic” — that they would alter their results to fit their political preferences, as Prabowo’s astroturf firms have done. Indeed, it was the integrity and reputation for accuracy of CSIS, SMRC, and Indikator that made their silence in June worth noting at that time.
I’d recommend reading Diane Zhang’s breakdown of the quick count numbers and what they mean (http://electionwatch.edu.au/indonesia-2014/what-basis-jokowis-claim-presidency). But if at this late stage you still don’t understand how quick counts work, if you still don’t understand that Jokowi won the most votes last week, I am not sure that I or anyone else here can help you.
“..to the West Bank of Palestine after the peace accords in 1999, where we worked with far-sighted visionaries to help plan for a free, independent and democratic Palestinian state..”
There can’t already be a “West Bank of Palestine”, if you are working towards a Palestinian State. The West Bank is occupied territory and is occupied by Israel, with undefined status, until (if and when), a peaceful resolution is obtained. It is not
“Palestine” and never has been (British
Mandated Palestine or the West Bank is not synonymous with a nation called “Palestine”). Your own words reveal your political inclinations, that are not neutral at all, and leads to very fair questioning of your ideological status, not only in other nations, but in Indonesia as well. That you assail your detractors as “crackpots” or “conspiratorialists’, says as much as need be said, about your professionalism, and the objectivity of your work. I am wondering how you would react to my assailing advertising executives as propagandising enablers (some of whom, sell their own companies, to make a profit). You are in the business to sell people to voters, and you expect us to consider your commercial enterprise as an objective one ? Are you serious ? You mangle a non-existent nation in the Middle-East, YET to exist, and your litany of defensive postures, in and of itself, leads to questions of objectivity. Your post has, perhaps unintentionally, answered the question of why, some might view your work
with incredulity, and it is NOT because they
are “crackpots”. Your reference to George Bush and Al Gore is anachronistic, and we had thought had finally died out, about 14 years ago.
You have confirmed my belief in publicily-funded elections, and the complete and total banning of all public or private commercial political advertising. We see what it does to the electoral process. It degrades and impugns it.
Kl wowo kalah mah ga takut ga balik modal kalee secara duitnya masih banyak… justru sebaliknya tuh yg takut ga balik modal secara kebanyakan Utangnya… mikiirrrrr…. !!!!!
For all …… Udahlah… Ngapain diributin sih??? Mau no 1, mau no 2 sama aja.. G kerja y g dapet duit. Lagian kaya mau dijadikan menteri aja. Simak aja tanggal 22 nanti. Skr presiden RI masih SBY.
Jumlahnya 44005. Hebat sekali dikirim 35000, kembalinya lebih 9005. Belum lagi dikurangi suara rakyat GOLPUT, alias tidak memakai hak pilihnya, karena sudah pasti tidak 100% dari 35000 orang menggunakan hak pilihnya.
Dan siapa yang mendapat keuntungan dari penggelembungan tersebut? Lihat sendiri, dan biarkan hati nurani anda yang berbicara.
Jangan mengatakan saya membela Jokowi dan menyudutkan Prabowo. Kalau ada penggelembungan terjadi di kubu Jokowi, silahkan post juga disini.
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How to read a quick count
and also not to mention that the election commission refuse to open the C1 Document(election booth document) to public.
Every vote must be counted, every voice must be heard
Are you sure that jokowi was your client in 2012 governor election? Or it was the same person who are now running for presidential election, prabowo, who gave his support to jokowi at that time as governor candidate in 2012 jakarta governor election
Every vote must be counted, every voice must be heard
And now, even in this article, you tried to manipulate another thing! You took Jokowi’s name in your credit title at your end.
So, you want people see that is not only Prabowo who plays the dirty games (with you), but Jokowi too. In fact, all Indonesians still clearly remember that the the TV Ads for Jokowi-Ahok 2012, was meant to be Prabowo & Gerindra’s Ads. Jokowi-Ahok were only popped up at a glance, while Prabowo-Gerindra were there all the times!
Taktik Permainan Prabowo
Kalau kamu nggak percaya QC, mungkin lain kali kalo dokter minta sampel darah, kamu harus ngasih semua darahmu soalnya kan sampel darahmu tidak mewakili semua darahmu.
Every vote must be counted, every voice must be heard
One thing that he forgot is that how much is America’s democracy (a so-called true democracy) is also measured by pollsters. If you take a look on US election, every district seat, every senate race, are measured by pollsters and statisticians. US media has their coverage and call the winners even before any precinct reported. Allyn also forgot how that quick count in Indonesia, with correct metodology, has produced an undeniably accurate picture of the results for the last 6 national elections and dozens of local elections.
Bear in mind that quick count will NEVER be regarded as OFFICIAL election result. We have KPU as the official commision who will announce the real count. But then again quick count will always give you accurate picture on what’s going on if it conducted with a correct, transparent methodology
Every vote must be counted, every voice must be heard
“The pollsters producing those quick counts (based on less than ┬╜%), as well as the head of Indonesia’s polling association, are all members of Jokowi’s campaign.”
So you are saying that RRI(Indonesia’s government radio) is a member of jokowi’s team. you know its a ridiculous allegation right?
Every vote must be counted, every voice must be heard
Thanks for this very insightful article. It does, as the previous comment says, confirm the conspiracy theories.
As an aside, the U.S. is not the world’s first democracy. The term is Greek, for a start…
Every vote must be counted, every voice must be heard
Correction: *former* father-in-law
Every vote must be counted, every voice must be heard
Why is a reputable research institution like the ANU publishing this piece? It is an advertising piece and a PR manoeuver for Margate House/Rob Allyn. Where is the scholarly critique to go with this piece?
As for Rob Allyn, he can say all he wants about “working for democracy” but it is rhetorical (in the same way that much of what Prabowo says is empty rhetoric). If Allyn really was a champion for democracy the way he makes himself out to be in this piece, he would have done some background check about Prabowo before offering him Margate House’s services for his presidential campaign.
But their actions suggest that Margate House/Rob Allyn is not about democracy – instead, they are about profit. Either that, or they are very naive about the precariousness of Indonesia’s young democracy.
Rob Allyn is naive to suggest that we should just sit back and wait for the ‘real’ count. If you look at Jokowi’s Facebook page, it is filled with calls for volunteers to be vigilant in ensuring that the voting and vote counting processes are not manipulated. Meanwhile, Prabowo’s Facebook shows that they are not the least bit concerned about possible manipulation of the votes. Why the contrast? It is probably because the former is more afraid that the votes will be manipulated by his opponent than the latter.
Indonesia is not (yet) a place where media companies can offer services to any candidate, pat themselves on their back for serving democracy, and be assured that the vote counting will be done professionally and objectively. Rob Allyn is naive (or pretending to be na├пve) in equating the role that his services played for American campaigns to that of Prabowo’s presidential bid.
Allyn can pretend that his conscience is clean and hop on a plane back to the US, but it is not he who has to face the consequences of the Indonesian election. It is Indonesians. We are the ones with loved ones in Indonesia. We are the ones who were directly affected by the events of 1965 and 1998 and everything in between. These events are still fresh in our memory. Many of us fled the country in 1998 (temporarily) to save our lives.
It may be business as usual for Allyn, but not so for Indonesians because our future is at stake.
In contrast to Allyn, the editors of The Jakarta Post risked everything in openly declaring support for Jokowi (http://bit.ly/1rrx2bv). They did so knowing that if Prabowo was to become president, he may give them a hard time (during the era of Prabowo’s father-in-law, Suharto, this could mean jail time and possibly death). On the surface this may seem biased, but given the Indonesian context they were essentially putting their lives on the line for the sake of protecting the democracy that Indonesia had fought for with their lives. Surely, the famous quote was ringing in their ears in the days leading up to their editorial, “All that is necessary for the triumph of evil is that good men do nothing.”
In light of the courage shown by The Jakarta Post editors, Rob Allyn’s claim of “working for democracy” rings empty.
Every vote must be counted, every voice must be heard
Rob, you argued that quick count samples from 2000 polling stations does not represent the ground reality, as they only accounts a small number of the population. You also claimed that your campaign ads are based on good research.
My question is, how many samples did you use for your research? Did you sampled the entire population?
Taktik Permainan Prabowo
Komen yg adem2 aja mas bro jangan buat suana makin panas,toh siapapun yg terpilih bakal memimpin kita semua,baik satu amupun dua jari,jangan saling menghujat dan saling memprofokasi kita semua saudara
Every vote must be counted, every voice must be heard
One thing for sure mate, you should learn statistics
Every vote must be counted, every voice must be heard
Thanks Monique, for voicing exactly how I feel.
Every vote must be counted, every voice must be heard
Honesty is the least I hope I will get when I first saw this article. Yes, that is. I get what I hope for: dishonesty!
Let me take a small piece of this article: “… Our clean, issue-focused TV ads have been cited as a key factor helping both clients to close a gap of 30 points during the last two months of their campaigns … and perhaps to win the presidency.”
Really? Are you serious? It’s very easy to find ordinary people, when you ask why they voted for Prabowo, will say because his opponent is Christian, is Chinese, is PKI!
It is not your fine and clean TV ads, Mr. Allyn. It is because the SMEAR campaign that Mr. Prabowo’s campaign has been using that close the gap!
Please be honest! Smear campaign works! Everybody knows that.
You are NOT a hero for Indonesian democracy. You put our democracy in danger.
I know you are being dishonest! Plain and simple.
Every vote must be counted, every voice must be heard
I’ve noticed that Allyn cites me in one of his dot points.
Regardless of what CSIS, SMRC, and Indikator did or did not do during the campaign, there has been absolutely no suggestion — by me or any “respected journalist or academic” — that they would alter their results to fit their political preferences, as Prabowo’s astroturf firms have done. Indeed, it was the integrity and reputation for accuracy of CSIS, SMRC, and Indikator that made their silence in June worth noting at that time.
I’d recommend reading Diane Zhang’s breakdown of the quick count numbers and what they mean (http://electionwatch.edu.au/indonesia-2014/what-basis-jokowis-claim-presidency). But if at this late stage you still don’t understand how quick counts work, if you still don’t understand that Jokowi won the most votes last week, I am not sure that I or anyone else here can help you.
Every vote must be counted, every voice must be heard
“..to the West Bank of Palestine after the peace accords in 1999, where we worked with far-sighted visionaries to help plan for a free, independent and democratic Palestinian state..”
There can’t already be a “West Bank of Palestine”, if you are working towards a Palestinian State. The West Bank is occupied territory and is occupied by Israel, with undefined status, until (if and when), a peaceful resolution is obtained. It is not
“Palestine” and never has been (British
Mandated Palestine or the West Bank is not synonymous with a nation called “Palestine”). Your own words reveal your political inclinations, that are not neutral at all, and leads to very fair questioning of your ideological status, not only in other nations, but in Indonesia as well. That you assail your detractors as “crackpots” or “conspiratorialists’, says as much as need be said, about your professionalism, and the objectivity of your work. I am wondering how you would react to my assailing advertising executives as propagandising enablers (some of whom, sell their own companies, to make a profit). You are in the business to sell people to voters, and you expect us to consider your commercial enterprise as an objective one ? Are you serious ? You mangle a non-existent nation in the Middle-East, YET to exist, and your litany of defensive postures, in and of itself, leads to questions of objectivity. Your post has, perhaps unintentionally, answered the question of why, some might view your work
with incredulity, and it is NOT because they
are “crackpots”. Your reference to George Bush and Al Gore is anachronistic, and we had thought had finally died out, about 14 years ago.
You have confirmed my belief in publicily-funded elections, and the complete and total banning of all public or private commercial political advertising. We see what it does to the electoral process. It degrades and impugns it.
Taktik Permainan Prabowo
Kl wowo kalah mah ga takut ga balik modal kalee secara duitnya masih banyak… justru sebaliknya tuh yg takut ga balik modal secara kebanyakan Utangnya… mikiirrrrr…. !!!!!
Taktik Permainan Prabowo
For all …… Udahlah… Ngapain diributin sih??? Mau no 1, mau no 2 sama aja.. G kerja y g dapet duit. Lagian kaya mau dijadikan menteri aja. Simak aja tanggal 22 nanti. Skr presiden RI masih SBY.
Taktik Permainan Prabowo
Setuju. ini saya berikan satu bukti kecurangan kepada kalian, supaya semua mata dan orang-orang yang dicuci otaknya bisa terbuka.
Baca ini. Langsung dari website PPLN Kuala Lumpur.
http://ppln.kbrikl.org/index.php?r=site/page&view=blog-item&id=70
Apa yang tertulis disana? 35000 surat suara dikirim. TIGA PULUH LIMA RIBU.
Sekarang periksa jumlah suara yang di POS PPLN Kuala Lumpur.
http://ppln.kbrikl.org/index.php?r=site/rekapitulasipilpres
Jumlahnya 44005. Hebat sekali dikirim 35000, kembalinya lebih 9005. Belum lagi dikurangi suara rakyat GOLPUT, alias tidak memakai hak pilihnya, karena sudah pasti tidak 100% dari 35000 orang menggunakan hak pilihnya.
Dan siapa yang mendapat keuntungan dari penggelembungan tersebut? Lihat sendiri, dan biarkan hati nurani anda yang berbicara.
Jangan mengatakan saya membela Jokowi dan menyudutkan Prabowo. Kalau ada penggelembungan terjadi di kubu Jokowi, silahkan post juga disini.
Taktik Permainan Prabowo
tetep metro tv jokowi vs prabowo tv one