[…] In the wake of July 9’s voting in Indonesia’s presidential elections, both candidates, Joko Widodo, or Jokowi, and Prabowo Subianto have declared that, according to quick counts, they have won the presidential election. For those who are not familiar with Indonesian elections, a quick count is not the same thing as an exit poll, common in Western elections; a primer on quick counts is available on New Mandala. […]
The only thing that Prabowo can do to win in this situation is by cheating. He is a human right violator for Christ sake, and he should not even be in the presidential candidate.
One-sided or two-sided margin? Why don’t we use p-values instead?
Jokes aside, statistically predicting and analysing election results is not like theoretical physics. There are a lot of “unscientific factors” (for example people can always lie on a survey, there is no law against that!) and just because you see some numbers and decimal places doesn’t make political science(sic) an exact science.
By the way I have taught statistics but not political science!
What’s the difference between Big Mom and In-Laws from Cendana with all corruptors from ORBA?
Big Mom couldn’t even put her own daughter to be in the Presidential Election. Big Mom is very reluctant to have Jokowi as the runner for her party, because it means the demise of her stupid dynasty. Jokowi must play Javanese, otherwise Big Mom knows Jokowi is also another asshole that she must be aware of, like SBY with many hidden agenda.
[…] In the wake of July 9′s voting in Indonesia’s presidential elections, both candidates, Joko Widodo, or Jokowi, and Prabowo Subianto have declared that, according to quick counts, they have won the presidential election. For those who are not familiar with Indonesian elections, a quick count is not the same thing as an exit poll, common in Western elections; a primer on quick counts is available on New Mandala. […]
[…] In the wake of July 9’s voting in Indonesia’s presidential elections, both candidates, Joko Widodo, or Jokowi, and Prabowo Subianto have declared that, according to quick counts, they have won the presidential election. For those who are not familiar with Indonesian elections, a quick count is not the same thing as an exit poll, common in Western elections; a primer on quick counts is available on New Mandala. […]
Ah, but Sceptic – if Thailand replaced Isarn’s cheap labour with an equivalent number of Burmese, Cambodians, (and Lao??) – would it still be Thailand ? Not to mention the food supply issue.
Diakui bagaimana kalau kita cermati semua negara2 maju akan memuji negara berkembang (jadi hanya basa-basi) Bedakan memimpin pasukan dengan memimpin rakyat lebih mudah memimpin pasukan karena semua prajurit akan tunduk pada senior atau komandan!
Thanks David. I also thought that was an interesting and bold move by Jokowi. Officers didn’t talk about it much, perhaps because Jokowi didn’t either. That said, I did hear from within the Jokowi camp that the idea of ministerial control was hopeless and that we could only focus now on strengthening Kompolnas
bersihinnya gampang bgt, kan udah ada janji dari Jokowi untuk menuntaskan semua masalah HAM yang masih tertunda sampai sekarang!!!
Dari Prabowo mana ada janji gituan???
Itulah sebabnya Prabowo takut bgt klo Jokowi sampai menang, dia bisa dipenjara untuk waktu yg sangat lama. Lagipula Prabowo sudah keluar sangat banyak uang untuk kemenangannya, klo ga jadi presiden ga bakalan balik modal!!!
Thanks Jacqui, interesting stuff. I wonder to what extent Jokowi’s platform – in which he commits to putting Polri under a Ministry and empowering Kompolnas, among other things – played a role in offending Polri. I’d be interested to hear more.
[…] plurality system. However, Malaysia is among the world’s top offender in this respect, as I have previously argued. After it’s near electoral defeat, the BN government had described the GE 2013 as a […]
negara kagak ada yg brengsek kalau pemimpinnya juga tidak brengsek..kalau bawahan tau pemimpinnya adalah pelaku korupsi gimana si pemimpin bisa memberantas total korupsi sedangkan dia dan orang sekelilingnya koruptor..apalagi menunjuk bawahan korup..yg ada maling teriak maling euy..salam lontong
Negara kagak ada yg brengsek kalau pemimpinnya juga kagak brengsek..kalau bawahan tau pemimpinnya korup gimana sang pemimpin berani ngambil tindakan total utk memberantas korupsi,apalagi membuka jejak korupsi bawahan,yg ada maling teriak maling..salam lontong
Why would that be the result? As we have seen in recent weeks, Thailand already employs large numbers of cheap labour from Burma, Cambodia and Laos and those countries are generally more than happy to let that labour go. Why would the situation be any different in the case of an “independent” Isarn? Remember Clinton’s election maxim, “It’s the economy, stupid!”
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Malaysia – the best predictors of electoral outcomes
[…] Read original article here: http://www.newmandala.org/2014/07/13/malaysia-the-best-predictors-of-electoral-outcom… […]
How to read a quick count
[…] In the wake of July 9’s voting in Indonesia’s presidential elections, both candidates, Joko Widodo, or Jokowi, and Prabowo Subianto have declared that, according to quick counts, they have won the presidential election. For those who are not familiar with Indonesian elections, a quick count is not the same thing as an exit poll, common in Western elections; a primer on quick counts is available on New Mandala. […]
Prabowo’s game plan
The only thing that Prabowo can do to win in this situation is by cheating. He is a human right violator for Christ sake, and he should not even be in the presidential candidate.
How to read a quick count
One-sided or two-sided margin? Why don’t we use p-values instead?
Jokes aside, statistically predicting and analysing election results is not like theoretical physics. There are a lot of “unscientific factors” (for example people can always lie on a survey, there is no law against that!) and just because you see some numbers and decimal places doesn’t make political science(sic) an exact science.
By the way I have taught statistics but not political science!
Prabowo’s game plan
My local teacher receive a packet of Rp100.000 asking her to choose prabowo
Which jerk said no vote buying
Prabowo Subianto: vote for me, but just the once
What’s the difference between Big Mom and In-Laws from Cendana with all corruptors from ORBA?
Big Mom couldn’t even put her own daughter to be in the Presidential Election. Big Mom is very reluctant to have Jokowi as the runner for her party, because it means the demise of her stupid dynasty. Jokowi must play Javanese, otherwise Big Mom knows Jokowi is also another asshole that she must be aware of, like SBY with many hidden agenda.
How to read a quick count
[…] In the wake of July 9′s voting in Indonesia’s presidential elections, both candidates, Joko Widodo, or Jokowi, and Prabowo Subianto have declared that, according to quick counts, they have won the presidential election. For those who are not familiar with Indonesian elections, a quick count is not the same thing as an exit poll, common in Western elections; a primer on quick counts is available on New Mandala. […]
How to read a quick count
[…] In the wake of July 9’s voting in Indonesia’s presidential elections, both candidates, Joko Widodo, or Jokowi, and Prabowo Subianto have declared that, according to quick counts, they have won the presidential election. For those who are not familiar with Indonesian elections, a quick count is not the same thing as an exit poll, common in Western elections; a primer on quick counts is available on New Mandala. […]
Political economy of Thai political pathologies
Ah, but Sceptic – if Thailand replaced Isarn’s cheap labour with an equivalent number of Burmese, Cambodians, (and Lao??) – would it still be Thailand ? Not to mention the food supply issue.
Taktik Permainan Prabowo
Diakui bagaimana kalau kita cermati semua negara2 maju akan memuji negara berkembang (jadi hanya basa-basi) Bedakan memimpin pasukan dengan memimpin rakyat lebih mudah memimpin pasukan karena semua prajurit akan tunduk pada senior atau komandan!
Stand by your man
Thanks David. I also thought that was an interesting and bold move by Jokowi. Officers didn’t talk about it much, perhaps because Jokowi didn’t either. That said, I did hear from within the Jokowi camp that the idea of ministerial control was hopeless and that we could only focus now on strengthening Kompolnas
Taktik Permainan Prabowo
bersihinnya gampang bgt, kan udah ada janji dari Jokowi untuk menuntaskan semua masalah HAM yang masih tertunda sampai sekarang!!!
Dari Prabowo mana ada janji gituan???
Itulah sebabnya Prabowo takut bgt klo Jokowi sampai menang, dia bisa dipenjara untuk waktu yg sangat lama. Lagipula Prabowo sudah keluar sangat banyak uang untuk kemenangannya, klo ga jadi presiden ga bakalan balik modal!!!
Stand by your man
Thanks Jacqui, interesting stuff. I wonder to what extent Jokowi’s platform – in which he commits to putting Polri under a Ministry and empowering Kompolnas, among other things – played a role in offending Polri. I’d be interested to hear more.
Taktik Permainan Prabowo
Hahahaha, “prihatiningsih” lg coba justifikasi, lucu
Taktik Permainan Prabowo
JOKOWI memang SAKTI. Sebegitunya lawan-lawannya melawan, tak juga mempan.
Jokowi, sederhana dan amanah. Tak terbantahkan.
Pakatan Rakyat must rethink strategies
[…] plurality system. However, Malaysia is among the world’s top offender in this respect, as I have previously argued. After it’s near electoral defeat, the BN government had described the GE 2013 as a […]
Malaysia – the best predictors of electoral outcomes
[…] Lynette H. ONG, Guest Contributor –July 13, 2014 http://www.newmandala.org/2014/07/13/malaysia-the-best-predictors-of-electoral-outcom… With the availability of new electoral data, researchers have been able to conduct in-depth […]
Taktik Permainan Prabowo
negara kagak ada yg brengsek kalau pemimpinnya juga tidak brengsek..kalau bawahan tau pemimpinnya adalah pelaku korupsi gimana si pemimpin bisa memberantas total korupsi sedangkan dia dan orang sekelilingnya koruptor..apalagi menunjuk bawahan korup..yg ada maling teriak maling euy..salam lontong
Taktik Permainan Prabowo
Negara kagak ada yg brengsek kalau pemimpinnya juga kagak brengsek..kalau bawahan tau pemimpinnya korup gimana sang pemimpin berani ngambil tindakan total utk memberantas korupsi,apalagi membuka jejak korupsi bawahan,yg ada maling teriak maling..salam lontong
Political economy of Thai political pathologies
Why would that be the result? As we have seen in recent weeks, Thailand already employs large numbers of cheap labour from Burma, Cambodia and Laos and those countries are generally more than happy to let that labour go. Why would the situation be any different in the case of an “independent” Isarn? Remember Clinton’s election maxim, “It’s the economy, stupid!”