FYI, Official real count will only be published on July 22nd, 2014 albeit both fronts may have had tabulate the REAL COUNT based on data compilation of C-1 Forms (Some kind of Ballot Paper Real Count Report – signed by witnesses from each front) from each voting stations through out Indonesia.
Dear New Mandala, I am deeply concerned on the quality of the publications to see that this kind of article went through. The title of the article and the 1st paragraph is very MISLEADING. Even more concerned upon finding that the piece was written by academics as opposed to a ‘mere’ soul. (Seriously????) Wouldn’t it be ethical to research thoroughly 1st before releasing such a piece? I seriously wonder how much the writers understand about the voting mechanism in Indonesia. Mind you, Quick Count or Exit Poll might come with a totally different context depending on localities eg: Quick Count in Australia vs Quick Count in Indonesia. Secondly, the quality of statistical representation (including presidential quick count or exit poll) relies on the quality of the data itself. If the sample is less than 1 percent of the total population, would you be able to call it the true representation of the whole lot? Seriously; perhaps it is time to re-read “How to Lie with Statistics”. I am deeply concerned with the quality of articles published in the more recent times. With New Mandala often praised as the voice of logics; I am no longer sure if it is anywhere close to the truth. And here I thought it is a place to learn.. 🙁
I share your view; which is why I was astounded to know that one of the presidential candidates front kept on pushing on campaigning style that in fact is breaking the nation apart by stressing on race as well as religion. Fear mongering tactics were thrown left and right. The one most shocking was when a group of highly educated people (with one of them being a household name in Indonesian education) held a gathering in which they have used fear based on religion and ethnicity to endorse their candidate. Fear mongering might work to gain a few votes, but at what price? I am asking myself that in disbelief. The damage is done right at the moment when fear is planted. Like a drop of water; it will accumulate over time and only time will tell when the dam will burst. A very sad fact where one does not walk the talk.
I have no confidence that vote rigging will no happen as the weakest link is getting the fully supervised ballot boxes up all the way to the subdistricts, districts, regions, and provincial centres before it arrives at the central election commission desk.
The Jokowi JK volunteers and party cadres need to stay vigilant and watch all work processes at all levels. Resource constraints may as well be the handicap. Focus need to stay at the most densely populated areas.
Don’t worry toch. “repetitive, long winded, convoluted or plain unintelligible and emotive language” sure does not apply to any of your prolific comments here and everywhere else.
Incidentally just like the “Hlut Taw” or “Upper House” or any of those fancy craps used for the fool’s consumption, Sun-Tzu may not have been real. At least not a real person unlike Mechaiavelli or Donald Rumsfeld or Thamada Gyi who one can physically hang if one feels like it.
It’s certainly possible. Right now the English language original is circulating towards some Australian media. Once we have an Indonesian language version up on the site then we’d be open to expressions of interest from the Indonesian press. I can be found at the usual place. As an aside, there are media around the Southeast Asian region that do sometimes reproduce our pieces in the vernacular, whether that’s Thai, Chinese, Burmese or the like.
Would the NM team be looking at the possibility of getting the article published via respectable Indonesian press such as Kompas?
That sure would make a much bigger impact and deter possible attempts at vote-counting manipulation.
Kudo to you Sir. This is perhaps the best piece I have read so far in regards to Indonesian Presidential election. The key is indeed the economy as Indonesia has become a country that is too dependent on others. Structured approach to be self sufficient in food and energy supply is perhaps the key to get the nation back in its track. Whilst education is important, one simply can’t teach/learn with a hungry stomach.
Watch this space. The bahasa version will be available very shortly. Takes a little bit of time to get the translation ready. For earlier translations of related work see here and here.
Jokowi’s game plan had obviusly been revealed since April this year. Many twitter users did really know: mark upping Jokowi’s vote by foreign medias, claiming the victory, delegitimating Electional Commission, even killing Jokowi if needed, than burning fire! Very cheap but true. So, this article is outdated.
It is a superbly amusing comment you got there. Especially in relation to this sentence I’ve quoted from the article; “Since writing the piece, polling has become available that suggests that it is fact more urban, educated and wealthier Indonesians – in other words, the middle classes – who have shifted earliest and most strongly toward Prabowo.” Enough said.
Indonesia is an amazing place. In America’s last presidential election they had 126 million votes, 96% on computer. And it takes several hours if not days to know the winner. In Indonesia you have perfected the process having 140 million votes, all on paper and manually read, 922 populated islands, 500,000 polling places, and you can know who is president within 2 hours of closing the polls. You guys are good!!! Either Indonesia should count the votes and see who won, or America needs to adopt your system.
Prabowo isn’t trying to be a good leader and certainly displaying none of leadership traits good leader should have. These next few days/weeks will be the deciding days for Indonesia.
That’s not really the argument Miggi,
You probably missed this part:
“The fact that all of Indonesia’s credible survey institutions coincided in finding a Jokowi victory, and by a broadly similar margin, means it is all but a statistical impossibility that Jokowi will not emerge victorious in a properly conducted formal KPU count.”
Dear authors,
Your articles are great but of little use.
Sorry for my language, but what do I mean here? If you want to make a real impact, you should have someone translate your articles to Bahasa Indonesia and publish it in top Indonesian news websites such as kompas, detik, etc. It requires some extra work but that is how your article can educate millions of Indonesians who cannot read in English.
You need to remember SBY’s role in forcing the land reclamation of Benoa Bay, Bali. If more ppl know about this, then surely his reputation does not mean much at all.
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President Jokowi vs Oligarchy
FYI, Official real count will only be published on July 22nd, 2014 albeit both fronts may have had tabulate the REAL COUNT based on data compilation of C-1 Forms (Some kind of Ballot Paper Real Count Report – signed by witnesses from each front) from each voting stations through out Indonesia.
President Jokowi vs Oligarchy
Dear New Mandala, I am deeply concerned on the quality of the publications to see that this kind of article went through. The title of the article and the 1st paragraph is very MISLEADING. Even more concerned upon finding that the piece was written by academics as opposed to a ‘mere’ soul. (Seriously????) Wouldn’t it be ethical to research thoroughly 1st before releasing such a piece? I seriously wonder how much the writers understand about the voting mechanism in Indonesia. Mind you, Quick Count or Exit Poll might come with a totally different context depending on localities eg: Quick Count in Australia vs Quick Count in Indonesia. Secondly, the quality of statistical representation (including presidential quick count or exit poll) relies on the quality of the data itself. If the sample is less than 1 percent of the total population, would you be able to call it the true representation of the whole lot? Seriously; perhaps it is time to re-read “How to Lie with Statistics”. I am deeply concerned with the quality of articles published in the more recent times. With New Mandala often praised as the voice of logics; I am no longer sure if it is anywhere close to the truth. And here I thought it is a place to learn.. 🙁
Prabowo’s game plan
Sarcasm much?
Striving for safety
I share your view; which is why I was astounded to know that one of the presidential candidates front kept on pushing on campaigning style that in fact is breaking the nation apart by stressing on race as well as religion. Fear mongering tactics were thrown left and right. The one most shocking was when a group of highly educated people (with one of them being a household name in Indonesian education) held a gathering in which they have used fear based on religion and ethnicity to endorse their candidate. Fear mongering might work to gain a few votes, but at what price? I am asking myself that in disbelief. The damage is done right at the moment when fear is planted. Like a drop of water; it will accumulate over time and only time will tell when the dam will burst. A very sad fact where one does not walk the talk.
Prabowo’s game plan
Pol Tracking office bombed this morning (well, attacked with Molotov cocktail)
http://pemilu.tempo.co/read/news/2014/07/11/269592241/Dilempar-Bom-Kantor-Lembaga-Survei-Dijaga-Polisi
Part of the game plan, or some supporters are just going wild?
Prabowo’s game plan
I have no confidence that vote rigging will no happen as the weakest link is getting the fully supervised ballot boxes up all the way to the subdistricts, districts, regions, and provincial centres before it arrives at the central election commission desk.
The Jokowi JK volunteers and party cadres need to stay vigilant and watch all work processes at all levels. Resource constraints may as well be the handicap. Focus need to stay at the most densely populated areas.
Rumour, religion and riots in Mandalay
Don’t worry toch. “repetitive, long winded, convoluted or plain unintelligible and emotive language” sure does not apply to any of your prolific comments here and everywhere else.
Incidentally just like the “Hlut Taw” or “Upper House” or any of those fancy craps used for the fool’s consumption, Sun-Tzu may not have been real. At least not a real person unlike Mechaiavelli or Donald Rumsfeld or Thamada Gyi who one can physically hang if one feels like it.
Prabowo’s game plan
Thanks Angry Magpie,
It’s certainly possible. Right now the English language original is circulating towards some Australian media. Once we have an Indonesian language version up on the site then we’d be open to expressions of interest from the Indonesian press. I can be found at the usual place. As an aside, there are media around the Southeast Asian region that do sometimes reproduce our pieces in the vernacular, whether that’s Thai, Chinese, Burmese or the like.
Best wishes to all,
Nich
Prabowo’s game plan
On 22nd July 2014, candidate X announced as the winner. Candidate Y protest, and ask for re-election. Bammmm! Candidate Y is a bad guy.
On 22nd July 2014, candidate Y announced as the winner. Candidate X protest, and ask for re-election. Bammmm! Candidate X is a bad guy.
Prabowo’s game plan
Would the NM team be looking at the possibility of getting the article published via respectable Indonesian press such as Kompas?
That sure would make a much bigger impact and deter possible attempts at vote-counting manipulation.
Return to autocracy in Indonesia?
Kudo to you Sir. This is perhaps the best piece I have read so far in regards to Indonesian Presidential election. The key is indeed the economy as Indonesia has become a country that is too dependent on others. Structured approach to be self sufficient in food and energy supply is perhaps the key to get the nation back in its track. Whilst education is important, one simply can’t teach/learn with a hungry stomach.
Prabowo’s game plan
Thanks HH,
Watch this space. The bahasa version will be available very shortly. Takes a little bit of time to get the translation ready. For earlier translations of related work see here and here.
Best wishes to all,
Nich
Return to autocracy in Indonesia?
Agreed wholeheartedly on that. I share the pain on the quality of New Mandala. It reads more -sorry- like a tabloid now. Really sad to see it happen.
Prabowo’s game plan
Jokowi’s game plan had obviusly been revealed since April this year. Many twitter users did really know: mark upping Jokowi’s vote by foreign medias, claiming the victory, delegitimating Electional Commission, even killing Jokowi if needed, than burning fire! Very cheap but true. So, this article is outdated.
Indonesia’s democracy is in danger
It is a superbly amusing comment you got there. Especially in relation to this sentence I’ve quoted from the article; “Since writing the piece, polling has become available that suggests that it is fact more urban, educated and wealthier Indonesians – in other words, the middle classes – who have shifted earliest and most strongly toward Prabowo.” Enough said.
Prabowo’s game plan
Indonesia is an amazing place. In America’s last presidential election they had 126 million votes, 96% on computer. And it takes several hours if not days to know the winner. In Indonesia you have perfected the process having 140 million votes, all on paper and manually read, 922 populated islands, 500,000 polling places, and you can know who is president within 2 hours of closing the polls. You guys are good!!! Either Indonesia should count the votes and see who won, or America needs to adopt your system.
Prabowo’s game plan
Prabowo isn’t trying to be a good leader and certainly displaying none of leadership traits good leader should have. These next few days/weeks will be the deciding days for Indonesia.
Prabowo’s game plan
That’s not really the argument Miggi,
You probably missed this part:
“The fact that all of Indonesia’s credible survey institutions coincided in finding a Jokowi victory, and by a broadly similar margin, means it is all but a statistical impossibility that Jokowi will not emerge victorious in a properly conducted formal KPU count.”
Key words: statistical impossibility
Prabowo’s game plan
Dear authors,
Your articles are great but of little use.
Sorry for my language, but what do I mean here? If you want to make a real impact, you should have someone translate your articles to Bahasa Indonesia and publish it in top Indonesian news websites such as kompas, detik, etc. It requires some extra work but that is how your article can educate millions of Indonesians who cannot read in English.
Prabowo’s game plan
You need to remember SBY’s role in forcing the land reclamation of Benoa Bay, Bali. If more ppl know about this, then surely his reputation does not mean much at all.