I visited Aksa Road during the Red Shirt rally shortly before the May 22 coup and the vendors were selling shirts that said in Thai, “Respect the King, Love the Prince”. One speaker said “We have a friend more powerful than Prem”. The CP obviously retains some support and there are many among the currently silenced who hope he becomes the next Monarch.
If Prabowo wins, presumably the parties currently supporting him will continue to do so, as they start lobbying fiercely for the ministerial plums that are due to fall their way in late October. As a result,Prabowo will have a parliamentary majority.
If, on the other hand, Jokowi wins, will he try to lure some of the pro-Prabowo parties to his own camp? If he upholds his principle of not using cabinet posts as bribes for support, what incentives can he offer Golkar, PPP and so on? And if he fails to win their support, will he thereby be condemned to managing a minority government, with all the risks of instability and legislative failure that that will portend? Or, alternatively, will some or all of the pro-Prabowo parties split up?
The officially neutral Democrat Party is already split. Prominent members like Max Sopacua and Syarief Hasan, incumbent minister and father of a KPK-declared suspect, have already dived off SBY’s neutral launch and are swimming for all they’re worth towards Prabowo’s shining beacon on the nearby shore. The Democrat Party’s fog-horn, Ruhut Sitompul, however, is still on board.
Can british citizen say would like to kick the queen and royal family out of britain then? Do you think it’s fair for the royal family that you can say the bad thing to them and they could not say anything back to you?? Yes of course we have a freedom to speech but on this case it is hate criminal and human right article to get rose in problem as well so better she should not say
Whatever one says condemning the coup – and I don’t like the way they’re snuffing out Anand-style de-centralisation – there does seem to be this one positive emerging : their economics is better than Yingluck’s. Eg. here is their better, more market-driven scheme, than Yingluck’s hare-brained rice pledging : http://www.bangkokpost.com/news/local/416016/cultivation-subsidy-for-rice-growers
This article presents this lady like she is a martyr for freedom or something. Unfortunately Rose’s posts can only be described as abusice rants, there was no level of structured argument, or political rhetoric. I couldn’t quote what she said here for fear that my post would be removed. In all when u read this article, which is heavily Rose biased, remember that this lady has caused uproar amongst some sections of Thai society, with many ordinary people calling for her head!! In this country (England) there are laws preventing one from inciting hatred and causing public uproar and disorder!! In short if she had said words that are as inflammatory here she would also be facing arrest!! Her words have incited hatred, aggression and violence and there is little doubt in my mind that this article skirts these simple facts.
I was disappointed that Mr Streckfuss failed to fully take on the justification of the coup by Mr Heinecke and other apologists. IF the coup was to stop violence then why go after people expressing nonviolent disapproval through the 3 fingered salute or reading a book or clicking that they like anti-coup stories on Facebook? Why is lese majeste a “top priority” of the junta and why does the junta feel a need to “extend its control over the nation’s powerful state-owned enterprises”? And why not mention that Prayuth had a part in the coup that toppled Thaksin and was vocal in not wanting Yingluk to win the election to PM years back. He’s not a neutral reluctantly compelled to act; he’s been an opinionated meddler for some time. It’s worth mentioning that the Thai PM doesn’t control the military so they can’t be called upon, say, to remove the yellow shirts who occupied the government house or shut down the airport. Until the military is under the command of the PM, Thailand will remain a basketcase where the military has to have a coup every few years to “restore” democracy.
I hope the issue of decentralisation – especially along the lines proposed by former PM Anand – is mentioned. It seems even these mild proposals, which I support – have now been snuffed out.
The Kitingans have changed sides as often as a reed in the wind. The KadazanDusun people, in Sabah, do not trust the Kitingans, for very obvious reasons. Sabah, under Menteri Besar, Datuk Seri Musa Aman, is a fixed deposit for UMNO. Through surrogate local parties, UMNO distributes largesse and political positions. UMNO also encourages the illegal migration of Filipino Muslims from Mindanao, Tawi-Tawi and Palawan, who are all registered as “Malays”, the obvious goal being to reduce the number of indigenous Bumiputera inhabitants, not all of whom are enamoured of UMNO/BN, and buy “Malay” loyalty from indigenous and imported “Malays”, all to ensure, with the assistance of the Menteri Besar and their UMNO/BN cronies, that UMNO will continue to control Sabah and its natural resources indefinitely. As the opposition is relatively weak in Sabah, and not able to garner sufficient political opposition to UMNO in the State, it is not likely that anger among Sabahans, due to Islamic favouritism; restrictions of Christian liturgy; illegal “Malay” immigration; Abu Sayyaf-led kidnapping of Malaysian and foreign tourists; the large chunk of Sabah’s profits, from its resources, that go to Putrajaya; and the general disdain, paternalism, crony politics, and massive corruption that UMNO/BN engenders in Sabah, is sufficient to reverse UMNNO’s stranglehold on Sabah and Sabahans, sadly facilitated by the Menteri Besar and the Kitingans, who’s political and monetary allegiances are not particularly refractory.
Prachatai/English is reporting Rose is now getting Thai expat visitors to her home who are threatening assault with eggs, vandalizing her door and otherwise being hooligans. One has even taped himself flashing a gun and posted it on you tube. Can we say “deported?” http://www.prachatai.com/english/node/4132
“We used to live peacefully under the monarchy” – Although you are Thai, you are clearly ignorant to Thai history. Was 1973, 1976 and 1992 “peaceful”? The struggle has been going on for decades but people like you who can afford to travel to the UK are blind to it because the semi-dictatorship you’ve lived under don’t want things to change. Why should you care about things like welfare, free education and healthcare.
You say you are not brainwashed but base your opinions from “pictures on the internet”, completely oblivious to what the word “propaganda” even means.
I’m sorry, but the North Korean comparison is apt.
I think some of the fears of Prabowo are legitimate, but this piece and Ed Aspinall’s piece yesterday strike me as hyperbolic, shock-jock type op-eds. Referring ominously (and vaguely) too “unconstitutional or otherwise illegal means” and assuming that President Prabowo will be Suharto incarnate puts discussions of the election in a simplified (and boring) rut.
Rather than decry the possible threat of Prabowo the President, I’d like to see more pieces trying to understand the appeal of Prabowo. Because Prabowo does appeal to a large portion of the Indonesian population. And Prabowo very well could be the next legitimately-elected democratic leader. Understanding this appeal I believe deserves more attention than these doomsday pieces.
Sorry for being off topic, but concerning the ultra-royalist and net surveillance, the Tails linux operating system might be your friend. https://tails.boum.org/
It would be great if they had this translated in Thai, which if someone would do, I am sure they would put it on their web page.
It won’t help your Facebook account of course, because that is easily identifiable.
-People from Vientiane & Savannakhet in the know took advantage of an awesome package deal from Sue Deng Express: a free 1 day tour of bangkok, including food & drinks & transport, with 300 baht pocket money.
-Democracy is not the best system in countries with too many citizens earning less than $3000-$8000 per year, which the current crisis in Thailand is another good example of.
Not sure if I buy this – has Prabowo or Gerindra actually said he would literally return to the 1945 Constitution? Where is ‘undoing’ in the following passage quoted from?
“So what would a return to the original text of the 1945 Constitution mean? In essence, it would require the ‘undoing’ of the amendments made to the Constitution in 1999-2002.”
What is the reality, that Thailand is a happy, safe, friendly place? I would dispute that on every point. The Thai people I interact with are not that happy; as my wife says, “mai pen rai” usually means “pen rai”. As for safe? No, it’s not really. People do get mugged, especially women carrying handbags that are grabbed by a thief on a passing motorcycle (I saw one just the other day), and the traffic accident rate is simply so unbelievable it makes you numb. I won’t ride on motorcycle taxis and I really try to avoid van rides because you never know if the van driver is going to be a safe driver or will drive like a crazy man. As for friendly, there are some places that are friendly but others are not. People do not smile on the BTS anymore. A lot of friendships have been ended or bruised over the last six months, and Thai society is really quite polarized.
The stark reality is that we are living under a military dictatorship with no checks and balances. Like in 1933 Germany, as Nick points out, people appear to be initially relieved there are no longer street fights happening between the yellow shirts and the red shirts, just like they were initially relieved that the street fighting had stopped between the Communists and the Nazis in Germany. Yet the flip-side of that story is that the Communists ended up in concentration camps, and I am reading that people are disappearing into military detention in places like Khon Kaen and Chiang Mai without the publicity that accompanies the arrest of a Thammasat law professor. So, I don’t know what to believe, but I pay attention to the ominous rumors.
I, personally, do not feel safe. I don’t fear the RTA because I am an American who has interacted with them in the past. My biggest fear is that some ultra-royalist will get angry at me for my Facebook posts criticizing the coup and file some trumped up lese-majeste charge against me. That would be a world of pain because there is no way to defend yourself against baseless accusations. I would not advise anyone I know to visit me here in Thailand. Given all the unknowns, I think you would be foolish to risk coming here. I also think that it is only a matter of time before there are Pattani-style bombings happening in other regions of Thailand, maybe even Bangkok. We had them here on New Years Eve in 2006-2007, so what’s to say they won’t happen again?
Finally, Thailand is not Vietnam. Thailand has, at least until recently, had a democratically elected government, and has had a reputation and track record for a liberal, laissez-faire attitude towards foreigners. The world is used to holding Thailand to higher standards for hospitality. That said, I could see a certain element of the Thai population who could be whipped up into a frenzy against either Cambodians or the Burmese, or even the Shan. I think the reality is that the reason over 180,000 Cambodians have fled Thailand over the past week is that they fear the real possibility of violence against them. Ten have died already in accidents in the rush to the border. There have also been widespread rumors that 9 Cambodian workers were killed by the Thai military, 8 in Chon Buri alone, in their temporary housing. These are just rumors, but quite believable to the Cambodians.
So is the international media sensationalizing the crisis? No, I think they have been quite fair and balanced. Have the travel advisories by the US and Australia been over and above what is necessary? While indeed some caution is warranted, it is true that some of it has been intended as pressure on the regime to soften its tough tactics (without any effect, unfortunately). Hence, IMHO Mr. Heinecke is painting a self-serving rosier picture than is deserved. Personally, as a coup supporter, I hope he does lose money in the months ahead. Unfortunately, I am pretty sure he won’t be the only one losing out in the economic recession.
One cannot “return” to what one does not understand. I highly doubt Prabowo, Jokowi or any contemporary politician understands the 1945 Constitution and the political environment in Indonesia at the time it was created. Name me one Indonesian politician who has not referenced the Constitution, Soekarno, purity and respect for human rights, all in the same breath. Soekarno, with an ego the size of Mount Merapi, even referenced himself. And, of all the Presidents that Indonesia has had, since 1945, other than claiming Soekarno’s political mantle, what of the other three things and how many Presidents have fulfilled at least one of the three ?
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Thorns of the Thai rose
I visited Aksa Road during the Red Shirt rally shortly before the May 22 coup and the vendors were selling shirts that said in Thai, “Respect the King, Love the Prince”. One speaker said “We have a friend more powerful than Prem”. The CP obviously retains some support and there are many among the currently silenced who hope he becomes the next Monarch.
Indonesia’s democracy is in danger
If Prabowo wins, presumably the parties currently supporting him will continue to do so, as they start lobbying fiercely for the ministerial plums that are due to fall their way in late October. As a result,Prabowo will have a parliamentary majority.
If, on the other hand, Jokowi wins, will he try to lure some of the pro-Prabowo parties to his own camp? If he upholds his principle of not using cabinet posts as bribes for support, what incentives can he offer Golkar, PPP and so on? And if he fails to win their support, will he thereby be condemned to managing a minority government, with all the risks of instability and legislative failure that that will portend? Or, alternatively, will some or all of the pro-Prabowo parties split up?
The officially neutral Democrat Party is already split. Prominent members like Max Sopacua and Syarief Hasan, incumbent minister and father of a KPK-declared suspect, have already dived off SBY’s neutral launch and are swimming for all they’re worth towards Prabowo’s shining beacon on the nearby shore. The Democrat Party’s fog-horn, Ruhut Sitompul, however, is still on board.
Thorns of the Thai rose
Can british citizen say would like to kick the queen and royal family out of britain then? Do you think it’s fair for the royal family that you can say the bad thing to them and they could not say anything back to you?? Yes of course we have a freedom to speech but on this case it is hate criminal and human right article to get rose in problem as well so better she should not say
Seven questions for Thailand’s military
Whatever one says condemning the coup – and I don’t like the way they’re snuffing out Anand-style de-centralisation – there does seem to be this one positive emerging : their economics is better than Yingluck’s. Eg. here is their better, more market-driven scheme, than Yingluck’s hare-brained rice pledging : http://www.bangkokpost.com/news/local/416016/cultivation-subsidy-for-rice-growers
Thorns of the Thai rose
This article presents this lady like she is a martyr for freedom or something. Unfortunately Rose’s posts can only be described as abusice rants, there was no level of structured argument, or political rhetoric. I couldn’t quote what she said here for fear that my post would be removed. In all when u read this article, which is heavily Rose biased, remember that this lady has caused uproar amongst some sections of Thai society, with many ordinary people calling for her head!! In this country (England) there are laws preventing one from inciting hatred and causing public uproar and disorder!! In short if she had said words that are as inflammatory here she would also be facing arrest!! Her words have incited hatred, aggression and violence and there is little doubt in my mind that this article skirts these simple facts.
Mr. Heinecke cannot have his coup and eat it too
I was disappointed that Mr Streckfuss failed to fully take on the justification of the coup by Mr Heinecke and other apologists. IF the coup was to stop violence then why go after people expressing nonviolent disapproval through the 3 fingered salute or reading a book or clicking that they like anti-coup stories on Facebook? Why is lese majeste a “top priority” of the junta and why does the junta feel a need to “extend its control over the nation’s powerful state-owned enterprises”? And why not mention that Prayuth had a part in the coup that toppled Thaksin and was vocal in not wanting Yingluk to win the election to PM years back. He’s not a neutral reluctantly compelled to act; he’s been an opinionated meddler for some time. It’s worth mentioning that the Thai PM doesn’t control the military so they can’t be called upon, say, to remove the yellow shirts who occupied the government house or shut down the airport. Until the military is under the command of the PM, Thailand will remain a basketcase where the military has to have a coup every few years to “restore” democracy.
ANU event on Thai coup
I hope the issue of decentralisation – especially along the lines proposed by former PM Anand – is mentioned. It seems even these mild proposals, which I support – have now been snuffed out.
Sabah – UMNO’s fixed deposit?
The Kitingans have changed sides as often as a reed in the wind. The KadazanDusun people, in Sabah, do not trust the Kitingans, for very obvious reasons. Sabah, under Menteri Besar, Datuk Seri Musa Aman, is a fixed deposit for UMNO. Through surrogate local parties, UMNO distributes largesse and political positions. UMNO also encourages the illegal migration of Filipino Muslims from Mindanao, Tawi-Tawi and Palawan, who are all registered as “Malays”, the obvious goal being to reduce the number of indigenous Bumiputera inhabitants, not all of whom are enamoured of UMNO/BN, and buy “Malay” loyalty from indigenous and imported “Malays”, all to ensure, with the assistance of the Menteri Besar and their UMNO/BN cronies, that UMNO will continue to control Sabah and its natural resources indefinitely. As the opposition is relatively weak in Sabah, and not able to garner sufficient political opposition to UMNO in the State, it is not likely that anger among Sabahans, due to Islamic favouritism; restrictions of Christian liturgy; illegal “Malay” immigration; Abu Sayyaf-led kidnapping of Malaysian and foreign tourists; the large chunk of Sabah’s profits, from its resources, that go to Putrajaya; and the general disdain, paternalism, crony politics, and massive corruption that UMNO/BN engenders in Sabah, is sufficient to reverse UMNNO’s stranglehold on Sabah and Sabahans, sadly facilitated by the Menteri Besar and the Kitingans, who’s political and monetary allegiances are not particularly refractory.
Thorns of the Thai rose
Prachatai/English is reporting Rose is now getting Thai expat visitors to her home who are threatening assault with eggs, vandalizing her door and otherwise being hooligans. One has even taped himself flashing a gun and posted it on you tube. Can we say “deported?”
http://www.prachatai.com/english/node/4132
And a prior threat by a woman yesterday
http://prachatai.org/english/node/4129
Thorns of the Thai rose
“We used to live peacefully under the monarchy” – Although you are Thai, you are clearly ignorant to Thai history. Was 1973, 1976 and 1992 “peaceful”? The struggle has been going on for decades but people like you who can afford to travel to the UK are blind to it because the semi-dictatorship you’ve lived under don’t want things to change. Why should you care about things like welfare, free education and healthcare.
You say you are not brainwashed but base your opinions from “pictures on the internet”, completely oblivious to what the word “propaganda” even means.
I’m sorry, but the North Korean comparison is apt.
Returning to the 1945 Constitution: what does it mean?
I think some of the fears of Prabowo are legitimate, but this piece and Ed Aspinall’s piece yesterday strike me as hyperbolic, shock-jock type op-eds. Referring ominously (and vaguely) too “unconstitutional or otherwise illegal means” and assuming that President Prabowo will be Suharto incarnate puts discussions of the election in a simplified (and boring) rut.
Rather than decry the possible threat of Prabowo the President, I’d like to see more pieces trying to understand the appeal of Prabowo. Because Prabowo does appeal to a large portion of the Indonesian population. And Prabowo very well could be the next legitimately-elected democratic leader. Understanding this appeal I believe deserves more attention than these doomsday pieces.
Indonesia’s democracy is in danger
I wonder what will happen if Prabowo loses the election. What kind of malevolent plan he has in mind to seek revenge against Jokowi?
Jokowi the party man
If i am not mistaken the first pic was “the chartered turboprop”. Has it been replaced by another pic? Or was it appear in another article?
Mr. Heinecke cannot have his coup and eat it too
Sorry for being off topic, but concerning the ultra-royalist and net surveillance, the Tails linux operating system might be your friend. https://tails.boum.org/
It would be great if they had this translated in Thai, which if someone would do, I am sure they would put it on their web page.
It won’t help your Facebook account of course, because that is easily identifiable.
“Foreign influence” in Red Shirt demonstrations
To summarize this article:
-People from Vientiane & Savannakhet in the know took advantage of an awesome package deal from Sue Deng Express: a free 1 day tour of bangkok, including food & drinks & transport, with 300 baht pocket money.
-Democracy is not the best system in countries with too many citizens earning less than $3000-$8000 per year, which the current crisis in Thailand is another good example of.
Returning to the 1945 Constitution: what does it mean?
Not sure if I buy this – has Prabowo or Gerindra actually said he would literally return to the 1945 Constitution? Where is ‘undoing’ in the following passage quoted from?
“So what would a return to the original text of the 1945 Constitution mean? In essence, it would require the ‘undoing’ of the amendments made to the Constitution in 1999-2002.”
Mr. Heinecke cannot have his coup and eat it too
What is the reality, that Thailand is a happy, safe, friendly place? I would dispute that on every point. The Thai people I interact with are not that happy; as my wife says, “mai pen rai” usually means “pen rai”. As for safe? No, it’s not really. People do get mugged, especially women carrying handbags that are grabbed by a thief on a passing motorcycle (I saw one just the other day), and the traffic accident rate is simply so unbelievable it makes you numb. I won’t ride on motorcycle taxis and I really try to avoid van rides because you never know if the van driver is going to be a safe driver or will drive like a crazy man. As for friendly, there are some places that are friendly but others are not. People do not smile on the BTS anymore. A lot of friendships have been ended or bruised over the last six months, and Thai society is really quite polarized.
The stark reality is that we are living under a military dictatorship with no checks and balances. Like in 1933 Germany, as Nick points out, people appear to be initially relieved there are no longer street fights happening between the yellow shirts and the red shirts, just like they were initially relieved that the street fighting had stopped between the Communists and the Nazis in Germany. Yet the flip-side of that story is that the Communists ended up in concentration camps, and I am reading that people are disappearing into military detention in places like Khon Kaen and Chiang Mai without the publicity that accompanies the arrest of a Thammasat law professor. So, I don’t know what to believe, but I pay attention to the ominous rumors.
I, personally, do not feel safe. I don’t fear the RTA because I am an American who has interacted with them in the past. My biggest fear is that some ultra-royalist will get angry at me for my Facebook posts criticizing the coup and file some trumped up lese-majeste charge against me. That would be a world of pain because there is no way to defend yourself against baseless accusations. I would not advise anyone I know to visit me here in Thailand. Given all the unknowns, I think you would be foolish to risk coming here. I also think that it is only a matter of time before there are Pattani-style bombings happening in other regions of Thailand, maybe even Bangkok. We had them here on New Years Eve in 2006-2007, so what’s to say they won’t happen again?
Finally, Thailand is not Vietnam. Thailand has, at least until recently, had a democratically elected government, and has had a reputation and track record for a liberal, laissez-faire attitude towards foreigners. The world is used to holding Thailand to higher standards for hospitality. That said, I could see a certain element of the Thai population who could be whipped up into a frenzy against either Cambodians or the Burmese, or even the Shan. I think the reality is that the reason over 180,000 Cambodians have fled Thailand over the past week is that they fear the real possibility of violence against them. Ten have died already in accidents in the rush to the border. There have also been widespread rumors that 9 Cambodian workers were killed by the Thai military, 8 in Chon Buri alone, in their temporary housing. These are just rumors, but quite believable to the Cambodians.
So is the international media sensationalizing the crisis? No, I think they have been quite fair and balanced. Have the travel advisories by the US and Australia been over and above what is necessary? While indeed some caution is warranted, it is true that some of it has been intended as pressure on the regime to soften its tough tactics (without any effect, unfortunately). Hence, IMHO Mr. Heinecke is painting a self-serving rosier picture than is deserved. Personally, as a coup supporter, I hope he does lose money in the months ahead. Unfortunately, I am pretty sure he won’t be the only one losing out in the economic recession.
Returning to the 1945 Constitution: what does it mean?
In short, Dictatorship.
Returning to the 1945 Constitution: what does it mean?
One cannot “return” to what one does not understand. I highly doubt Prabowo, Jokowi or any contemporary politician understands the 1945 Constitution and the political environment in Indonesia at the time it was created. Name me one Indonesian politician who has not referenced the Constitution, Soekarno, purity and respect for human rights, all in the same breath. Soekarno, with an ego the size of Mount Merapi, even referenced himself. And, of all the Presidents that Indonesia has had, since 1945, other than claiming Soekarno’s political mantle, what of the other three things and how many Presidents have fulfilled at least one of the three ?
Rohingya: denied the right to be human
AQ is an ideology then surely there can not be any Islamophobe, eh.