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Here is the reason for the confusion. The CP has had a very low popularity in Thai society for decades. He is generally feared and/or despised. The reason for his unpopularity is probably based on facts but facts have also been used by his opponents to increase his evil reputation. This “myth” has long been a Thai representation of the world: we love the king, we (secretely even if everyone knows) hate his son. But Thaksin has invested in CP’s future, and among red shirts a new idea started to spread: with an unpopular new king (not easily manipulated by the traditional players, given the antipathy between them), reforming the monarchy would be easier. Since talking about all that is forbidden by lese-majeste laws in Thailand, red-shirt were left with those two conflicting (secret) representations: unsympathetic views towards the designated heir, vs. sympathetic view towards the designated heir. The two beliefs can be seen as conflicting, but I think we can view it as: red shirts are not big fans of the prince’s character, but want to reinforce his succession because he is an asset (or so they believe) in achieving a reform of the monarchy. Some would say he is an asset in Thaksin’s search for power. Can’t say.

The beatings will continue until moral improves.

There is the fifth (5th) box: A Malay Autarchy, masquerading as a Constitutional Theocratic Ethnocentric Monarchy. This is what Malaysia is now experiencing existentially, which falls far short of the intended Malaysian Constitution, envisioned by its founders, as a guidepost for Constitutional Monarchy (the fourth box). Existential reality and constitutional vision, collide in Malaysia, and the consequences of this collision, are dire indeed. One rarely gets to choose past the third door; in this instance, Malaysia has too many doors, and not enough door handles.

The idea that Chan-ogre is going to “grow the economy” is laughable. Last time 2008-2010, when there was the barest facade of democracy on the mil side, the money boys printed up 4 trillion baht out of thin air. They increased the outstanding currency in circulation by 33% in a little over 2 years. That was free money for military subsidies, a new full military base in Khoen Kaen, blimb funds, “detector” funds etc.

The classic Austrian economic formulation for real economic growth subtracts % of currency growth from % of nominal GDP growth to get the real measure of economic “growth”.

With forecast of 2% or less growth in Thai economy, coupled with what, you can bet your house on, will be money printing to subsidize the illusion of “growth”, you can expect for the foreseeable future that the Thai economy will contract perhaps rather viciously, especially for those living close to the ground. But not of course for the military/oligarch money boys who get first crack at the newly minted currecy.

Mind you that both Laos and Cambodia are now showing growth at over 7% each. And Myanmar at nearly that rate.

And as long as the foreign direct investments in Thailand are protected by the military coup, and profit flows ~out~ of the country, gleaned off the backs of Thai laborers, you can bet that the coup’s black hole is going to suck in everyting on the old Thailand plantation to great applause from most foreign observers.

The key assumption is they actually want to get out of the vicious cycle. Doubt that PDRC supporter see it as vicious, more as a circuit breaker. So the key was not forgotten, it was just not being look for nor meant to be found in the first place.

“If you want a picture of the future, imagine a boot stomping on a human face — forever.”

If there’s to be a successful democracy in Thailand, the army should not have the power to accept or not accept civilian rule. They will simply be powerless to do anything about it.

The army’s commander in chief will be the prime minister. There will not be an army chief except in times of war, with the consent of parliament. At all other times, there will be regional commanders who will be kept well away from Bangkok. The army will have their tanks taken away. The police will be reinforced with heavy arms, so there’s a better balance of power. Police forces likewise will be organized regionally and locally. All provinces will elect their own governors, who also have provincial police under their control. Local police will be under the control of municipalities. Counter-insurgency in the south will be transferred to police or a newly-created agency. The army will be kept in barracks in reserve for times of war.

Anybody who has ever staged a coup and is still alive will be prosecuted and jailed for treason. There can be no compromise.

The priority of the next democratic government has to be dismantling the army’s ability to interfere with politics.

Until that’s done there will never be democracy in Thailand.

What described above may seem outrageous now, but they were probably quite accurate pictures that Prem and companies had, if the succesion were to go by the book. Thats why they had to act.

It’s not the army alone that does not accept civilian control. In fact, none of Thailand’s coups could have happened without a royal blessing. We cannot talk about the army in isolation with other factions of the establishment.